[🇧🇩] - How Does Bangladesh fit into Indo-Pacific Strategy? | World Defense Forum
Reply

[🇧🇩] How Does Bangladesh fit into Indo-Pacific Strategy?

  • Thread starter Thread starter Saif
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies Replies 17
  • Views Views 982
G Bangladesh Defense Forum

Saif

Senior Member
Jan 24, 2024
7,106
2,845
Origin

Residence

Axis Group

US IPS in mess in S Asia, Myanmar
M Serajul Islam | Published: 00:00, Mar 15,2024

THE Anti-Corruption Commission lawyer’s contempt charge against US ambassador Peter Haas for speaking about the Nobel laureate Dr Mohammad Younus’s case was meant to embarrass because diplomats enjoy immunity from civil and criminal prosecution in the host country under the Vienna Convention of Diplomatic Relations. It has, nevertheless, flagged his roller-coaster ride so far, from the hero to most Bangladeshis and the anti-hero to the ruling party till the January 7 election and discredited by all, thereafter, in pursuit of the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy in Bangladesh that also stands discredited in Bangladesh and Myanmar.

The IPS vision of an ‘open Indo-Pacific’ has been based upon connecting the 40 countries of the Indo-Pacific region that constitute 65 per cent of the world population and accounts for 60 per cent of the world’s gross domestic product through democracy and human rights. It is the Biden administration’s soft power strategy as opposed to the military for containing China’s rapid expansion in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond in the post-war on terror era.

Ambassador Haas’s pursuit of the IPS democracy and human rights objectives with the focus on a free and fair election in Bangladesh were by coincidence the same objectives that the Bangladesh Nationalist Part was seeking in its movement against the Awami League regime with one difference. The BNP wanted a free and fair general election under the caretaker government. The United States was silent on the caretaker government. The election that the United States wanted, however, had more conditions with which the BNP could not agree more. The BNP was confident that if the United States had its way, the BNP would win the election by a landslide.

Ambassador Haas used the mainstream media and think tanks in Dhaka to pursue the Indo-Pacific Strategy. He did not mix any diplomacy in what he did that all and sundry in Bangladesh understood easily. Ambassador Haas raised hopes of most Bangladeshis who needed help desperately for their democratic, human and electoral rights which were on a very slippery slope. They felt that with the world’s only superpower supporting these rights as its own, they would certainly regain them.

The US pursuit of the Indo-Pacific Strategy energised the BNP’s movement that it kept peaceful in awareness of the US intolerance of violence. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party held in Dhaka on October 28 the largest public gathering since 1971 for election under the caretaker government. The Awami League regime, in a planned manner, cracked down on the BNP’s peaceful mega-gathering. It arrested BNP’s top leaders, including its secretary general, locked its main office and incarcerated 25,000 of its activists at grass roots. The regime carried the crackdown in public view that foreign diplomats, including Ambassador Haas, watched in silence allowing the Awami League regime to hold the election on January 7 in a surreal way.

The January 7 election flagged unequivocally that the US Indo-Pacific Strategy could not have failed more embarrassingly than it did in Bangladesh. The European Union report on the January 7 election released very recently said it all. The election was the antithesis of what the United States wanted in every way imaginable. The election that could have sent out the strongest message in the Indo-Pacific region in favour of IPS democracy and human rights objectives sent out instead the message that the United States could not be trusted. Most Bangladeshis felt the same and regretted the confidence that they had placed in the Biden administration.

The Biden administration’s failure to encourage a free and fair election has now been exposed as not in its lack of will because leading almost to the election, it was genuinely interested in doing so. It treated the Awami League regime badly and behaved discourteously with the Bangladesh prime minister. It failed because, in the end, it gave way to India which wanted the Awami League regime to have its way. The Bharatiya Janata Party government did not want the Bangladesh Nationalist Party in power while fighting the Indian election in April and May on the hindutva mantra that considers Islam and Muslims as enemies.

India has also largely been responsible for the failure of the IPS China containment policy in South Asia. India’s failure in dealing with its neighbours has encouraged South Asian countries to open their doors to China. China, once a pariah in Bangladesh for its anti-Bangladesh role in 1971, is now the closest foreign power to the Awami League regime at a time when the BNP-led opposition has started a ‘boycott Indian goods’ movement because it believes India’s ‘all eggs in AL basket’ policy stands between them and their political, human and electoral rights.

It is, indeed, a mystery that the mandarins of the Biden administration failed to assess India’s role in South Asia before making it its indispensable IPS ally. It is equally mysterious that these mandarins backed India in Bangladesh at the proverbial eleventh hour which left South Asia disappointed to see the world’s oldest and biggest democracies together opposing most Bangladeshis in their struggle for their democratic rights.

The IPS strategy is also failing in Myanmar for the same reason as South Asia in its wrong choice of ally and failure to keep its promises and commitments.

The US Congress’ National Defence Appropriation Act of November 2022 incorporated a revised version of the Burma Act 2022. The US law created great hopes in Myanmar. The people wanted direct US military intervention. They, nevertheless, felt that the law could be an alternative to end the military dictatorship in Myanmar.

The law encouraged ethnic rebellions in Myanmar to become united which saw the brutal Tatmadaw or the military on the run for the first time in many parts of Myanmar. The People’s Defence Forces, the armed wing of the National Unity Government, the shadow government of the democratic forces the military coup ousted in 2021, successfully established a chain of command among the ethnic armed organisations that could eventually be the game changer against the Tatmadaw.

The People’s Defence Forces is, nevertheless, disappointed that the US promise in the law to provide ‘non-lethal’ weapons to them has remained a false hope. The United States has given Ukraine items ranging from radar equipment to armoured military vehicles as assistance under the same type of assistance promised to Myanmar under law in 2023. The United States has unfortunately done very little to help the rebels in Myanmar and the law has so far remained confined to paper only.

The Myanmar rebel groups namely the Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and Ta’ang Liberation Army in Kachin, Sagaing, Chin and Rakhine, the provinces bordering Bangladesh and India have united under the Three Brotherhood Alliances. The alliance has become a formidable threat to the Tatmadaw. Between this alliance and the unity achieved by the People’s Defence Forces with the ethnic armed organisations in the rest of Myanmar, the Tatmadaw now holds only 40 per cent of the country.

The IPS democracy and human rights bedrocks in Myanmar are, thus, failing on the trust factor flagged by the US failure to keep its promises under the US law. It is also losing out on the IPS China containment policy in Myanmar because it has no foothold in the country and its indispensable ally India is a hindrance, rather than a help, in this context. India’s relations in Myanmar are with the Tatmadaw. The rebels in the Brotherhood Alliance including elsewhere are said to be funded, trained and supplied with arms by China. India, thus, wants Bangladesh’s army to distance itself from the Arakan Army while grapevines suggest that the United States wants the opposite. It wants the Bangladesh army to be its proxy and, thereby, give it the foothold in Myanmar that it does not have now.

China has a ‘heads I win, tails you lose’ advantage in Myanmar because of its two-tier style of conducting foreign relations. Beijing kept the best of relations with the central government or the Tatmadaw while the Communist Party of China, with the rebel groups. The IPS shows no promise in Myanmar for the same reasons as in South Asia. The reasons are, first, the appallingly low rating of the United States in international politics on the trust factor and, second, its wrong choice of allies. The United States lost its best chance for the Indo-Pacific Strategy by failing in Bangladesh and failing in Myanmar for the same reasons.

The Biden administration can bring the Indo-Pacific Strategy back on track by working on the reasons it failed in Bangladesh and is failing in Myanmar. If it chooses to do so, it may be worthwhile to inquire whether Americans of Indian origin and supporters of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s hindutva mantra at the White House and the state department had influenced Bangladesh’s general election. The grapevines suggest that they did.

M Serajul Islam is a former career ambassador.​
 
Last edited:

The growing importance of Bangladesh in the Indo-Pacific​


1710550396621.png

If one analyses Bangladesh’s maritime policy over the decades, it promotes rules-based maritime order in the Indo-Pacific region. FILE PHOTO: REUTERS

"Bangladesh is a strategically important country in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific region due to its geographic location connecting South and Southeast Asia." – US.

"Bangladesh is an increasingly important strategic partner for the UK in the Indo-Pacific region and it is a key player in upholding the Rules-Based International System (RBIS)." – UK.

"Bangladesh, located in the Bay of Bengal, is a vital country in geopolitical terms and it needs to utilise its geographical advantage to increase economic opportunities fully." – Japan.


Bangladesh, as the gateway to South and Southeast Asia, remains geographically central in the Bay of Bengal region. And naturally, the location of the country makes it a focal element in the Indo-Pacific strategy of the United States, India, Japan and Australia.

Various initiatives—like the Asia Rebalancing Strategy, Belt and Road Initiative, Free and Open Indo-Pacific, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, Trilateral Security Pact, Indo-Pacific Tilt, Security and Growth for All in the Region, and Indo-Pacific Economic Forum for Prosperity—have been adopted by countries to address new security challenges as well as infrastructural, economic and technological developments in the region.

In April 2023, Bangladesh published a peace and development-centric Indo-Pacific Outlook. In the words of State Minister for Foreign Affairs Shahriar Alam, "Our Indo-Pacific Outlook is an attempt to tell the world that the region is for common prosperity, not just for those who live in it, but also for the whole world."

If one analyses Bangladesh's maritime policy over the decades, it promotes rules-based maritime order in the Indo-Pacific region. In its foreign policy and international relations, the country has always advanced a free and open Indo-Pacific. In its Indo-Pacific Outlook, it considered four principles that include Bangladesh's foreign policy dictum: "friendship to all, malice toward none," respect for national sovereignty and equality of other countries, political independence, and non-interference in domestic affairs of other nations.

These principles signal that Bangladesh would remain adamant about its non-aligned position and not lean towards any particular country or bloc. The primary emphasis is the need for peace and stability in the region. The country also focuses on military de-escalation while seeking greater cooperation in the region. Strengthening mutual trust and forging cooperation while promoting dialogue and understanding with the aim of ensuring peace, prosperity and stability is one of the objectives of Bangladesh's Indo-Pacific Outlook. The country's stance on the Indo-Pacific region is different from its Western counterparts. The West has an anti-China dimension in its Indo-Pacific strategy, whereas Bangladesh has taken an all-inclusive outlook. Thus, Bangladesh is focusing on greater cooperation and stability in the region. The country is an advocate of a free, open and all-inclusive Indo-Pacific that will bring peace and development to the surrounding nations.

The country also emphasises on the security of the sea-lanes of communication in the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific region. Sea lanes are utilised to transport around 90 percent of all global shipments. Moreover, the Indian Ocean makes way for 80 percent of all global maritime oil shipments and one-third of the world's bulk cargo traffic. On the other hand, trans-Pacific routes are the largest shipping zone in terms of load size. Thus, security in the maritime trade routes is a major concern for countries that depend on maritime trade.

Bangladesh calls for strengthening the existing mechanism for ensuring these in the Indo-Pacific marine zone. While formulating the Indo-Pacific Outlook, Bangladesh adopted the need for upholding the exercise of freedom of navigation, overflight, and response to emergencies at sea, and conducting search and rescue operations under the relevant international laws such as UNCLOS 1982. The free flow of cargo through the oceans is a must for the economic development of Bangladesh and other countries. Thus, Bangladesh focuses on a secured sea lane of communication in this region for all.

In addition, the impacts of climate change, ocean acidification, illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing, piracy, and human trafficking in the sea remain key challenges for Bangladesh's maritime security. Tackling these issues requires cooperation from other states and non-state actors. The World Bank estimates that Bangladesh suffers $1 billion in annual losses due to average tropical cyclones. It also speculates that Bangladesh may lose one-third of its agricultural GDP by 2050, while 13 million people may become internal climate migrants in the country. Meanwhile, ocean acidification and IUU fishing are responsible for marine fisheries depletion, and piracy and human trafficking have become growing concerns. Incidents of piracy have disrupted shipping routes, and a large number of people, mostly women, are trafficked via the Bay of Bengal every year. These issues require concerted efforts to be resolved, as they are difficult to address by a single state or non-state actors. However, Bangladesh supports international and regional actions towards combating transnational and organised crime in the Bay.

The US has recognised the geopolitical importance of Bangladesh by mentioning that the country is a bridge between South Asia and South-east Asia. The UK considers Bangladesh a strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific region and recognises Bangladesh's efforts to uphold the Rules-Based International System. Japan also conveys that Bangladesh is a vital country in terms of geopolitics, and the country needs to utilise its geographical advantage. And so, this recognition of Bangladesh's geopolitical importance by regional and extra-regional powers clearly illustrates the growing importance of Bangladesh in the Indo-Pacific region.​

Md Shariful Islam is an associate professor of international relations at the University of Rajshahi. He is also an adjunct research fellow at the KRF Center for Bangladesh and Global Affairs (CBGA, Dhaka).
 

An Indo-Pacific Outlook for Bangladesh​


1710550554567.png

Photo: Reuters

Indo-Pacific politics has garnered a lot of interest lately. This was noticeable during consecutive US officials' visits to Bangladesh in recent months. The publication of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy in early 2022, followed by Canada's and South Korea's IPS later that year, provided a better understanding, along with previously adopted policies and outlooks of Japan, Australia, India, Germany, France, the UK, the EU, ASEAN and The Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA). As a resident country of the Indo-Pacific, Bangladesh, too, can formulate its own outlook and determine its engagement with the region.

In formulating an outlook for the Indo-Pacific, it is important to identify Bangladesh's regional scope. Although existing Indo-Pacific strategies are concerned with the two oceanic regions as a whole, different countries can emphasise selective geographic areas based on strategic objectives.

South Korea has the most expansive view of the region. It starts from the African coast of the Indian Ocean and stretches all the way to South America. For Japan, it starts from the eastern coast of Africa and expands to North America. For the US, it stretches from its Pacific coastline to South Asia. Australia's strategic emphasis is from the north-eastern side of the Indian Ocean to the Southwest Pacific. France's focus is on its overseas territories in this region.

Similarly, it is important for Bangladesh to develop a mental mapping of the Indo-Pacific based on its interest areas. It can start with the immediate Bay of Bengal and cover the countries, trade routes and flashpoints that have significance for Bangladesh's foreign policy and security. This tailored approach would help Bangladesh sharpen its focus in areas important to the country and avoid being dragged into geopolitical vicissitudes in areas where it does not have a stake.

The sectors of engagement are also important. Most documents emphasise securing global trade, exploring economic opportunities, developing connectivity, supporting technological development, and addressing climate change.

The US introduced the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) as part of this process, and Japan has its Bay of Bengal Industrial Growth Belt initiative (BIG-B).

Bangladesh, too, must identify the areas where its interests converge with the priorities of regional and extra-regional countries.

Security cooperation is a key aspect of most of these strategies. In the traditional aspects of security, the attention is towards modernising existing alliances, strengthening relations with regional partners, and enhancing military exercise, naval deployment and defence-industrial cooperation. Non-traditional areas include maritime security, energy security, global health, cyber security, humanitarian assistance and disaster response, etc. Cooperation in these non-traditional security areas is also emphasised among QUAD members.

Two existing strategies already refer to security cooperation with Bangladesh. Japan's FOIP mentions working with Bangladesh in counter-terrorism and disaster risk reduction. The US IPS also aims to build the defence capacity of South Asian partners, including Bangladesh.

The US and Bangladesh are already cooperating in areas like climate change, counter-terrorism, maritime security, military training and UN peacekeeping. The details regarding what additional areas the US would want to expand cooperation in are not yet available, but it is clear that the expectation is to strengthen bilateral security relations as part of its IPS. Other strategies or policies do not specify Bangladesh, but South Asia is among the priority areas.

Bangladesh has been open to expanding cooperation in non-traditional security areas, as many of these issues cannot be addressed without international cooperation. However, when it comes to traditional security cooperation, Bangladesh has always maintained a cautious position. Publishing Bangladesh's outlook for the Indo-Pacific would give clarity to international partners regarding this. It will also allow the country to highlight additional important areas where it seeks international cooperation, like drug and human trafficking, and Rohingya refugee repatriation.

Clarity regarding the position on China is also important. The conceptualisation of Indo-Pacific policies has commonly been seen as an effort targeted against China. The documents of the US, France and Canada view China as an assertive actor. However, other countries and organisations avoid adopting such views. For example, South Korea calls for inclusiveness. It sees China as a key partner for achieving prosperity and peace in the Indo-Pacific region. The EU also states that its view is inclusive of all partners wishing to cooperate with it. ASEAN calls for inclusiveness in terms of ideas and proposals. This shows that not all stakeholders view the Indo-Pacific through the lens of great power competition; some prefer a cooperative approach like Bangladesh.

As part of our "friendship to all and malice towards none" foreign policy dictum, Bangladesh has been working closely with all partners. We have always advocated for a free, open, inclusive, peaceful and secure Indo-Pacific region. A policy document elaborating on these views would be immensely beneficial to guide Bangladesh's international engagement and foreign policy discourse. This will provide clarity and prevent misinterpretation, which is very important in the current context of global politics.

The Indo-Pacific has undoubtedly become a core area of global politics and its importance is only going to grow. Publicising a holistic outlook on the Indo-Pacific would be a timely initiative to project Bangladesh as an active, interested and responsible stakeholder of the region.

Ayesha Binte Towhid is a Research Officer at the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS).
 

How different is Dhaka’s outlook from the US Indo-Pacific Strategy?​

The unveiling of the Indo-Pacific Outlook has been broadly welcomed by many Bangladeshi analysts and diplomats

1710550723785.png

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina with her Japanese counterpart Kishida Fumio at the Prime Minister's Office of Japan on April 26, 2023. PHOTO: PID

After months of speculation and anticipation, Bangladesh has unveiled its "Indo-Pacific Outlook (IPO)," which "envisions a free, open, peaceful, secure, and inclusive Indo-Pacific for the shared prosperity for all.' The United States, which originally conceived and floated the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS), has been urging Bangladesh for the last few years to join them in implementing the IPS. Though Bangladesh doesn't use the term strategy or IPS, the vision it lays out is remarkably similar to the IPS.

If we review the joint statement made on June 2, 2022 after the second Bangladesh-US High-Level Economic Consultation held in Washington, it would be difficult to differentiate the language. The joint statement under the subhead Infrastructure/Trade reads, "Both countries share a common vision of a free, open, inclusive, peaceful, and secure Indo-Pacific region with shared prosperity for all."

These words have been repeated innumerable times by the US officials to define both the IPS and Quad, another smaller alliance among the US, Australia, Japan and India. On July 28, 2021, after the US-India Strategic partnership dialogue held in Delhi, US Secretary of State Antony J Blinken said, "We share a vision – India and the United States – of a free, open, secure, and prosperous Indo-Pacific. We'll work together to make that vision a reality."

Secretary Blinken amplified this vision again in his recent Asia tour that included the G7 foreign ministers' meeting in Tokyo. Before going to Tokyo, he visited Hanoi and on April 15, he said, "Our countries can advance a free and open Indo-Pacific, one that is at peace and grounded in respect for the rules-based international order. When we talk about 'free and open,' we mean countries being free to choose their own path and their own partners and that problems will be dealt with openly; rules will be reached transparently and applied fairly; and goods, ideas, and people will flow freely across land, the seas, the skies, and cyberspace."

Rules-based international order, free flow of goods, capital, services and people, across the seas, the skies and cyberspace are all included in the objectives set by Bangladesh in its outlook. The Bangladesh-Japan Joint Statement on Strategic Partnership issued after the formal talks between Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio on April 26 also provides some idea as to why our foreign ministry chose to publish its IPO prior to her three-nation tour – to Japan, the US and the UK. All these three nations have significant roles in pursuing the policy of open and free Indo-Pacific with a shared goal of countering China's growing political, economic, and military power.

It's worth noting that the Bangladesh-Japan joint statement begins with the two prime ministers' reaffirmation of "their commitment to realising a free and open Indo-Pacific based on the rule of law, where the rights, freedoms and sovereignty of all countries, regardless of size or power, are protected by international law, rules and norms." They particularly affirmed that "maritime order based on common values such as freedom of navigation is a cornerstone for stability and prosperity of the international community and that the use of the sea as global commons will contribute to the development of (the) blue economy."

Similar objectives had been expressed earlier in the joint statement issued at the Second Bangladesh-US High-Level Economic Consultation. The statement added that the US briefed Bangladesh on the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), and Bangladesh welcomed additional information on the supply chain resilience and decarbonisation pillars of the IPEF. Bangladesh also sought US technical assistance to sustainably explore its ocean resources and further develop its blue economy, it noted.

The unveiling of the Indo-Pacific Outlook has been broadly welcomed by many Bangladeshi analysts and diplomats, who have pointed out that it is based on the dictum "Friendship towards all, malice towards none." Whether this dictum would be enough to address the Chinese concern about committing to the objectives of rules-based order and a free and open Indo-Pacific has to be seen in the coming days.​

All these interactions took place well after China's warning of "substantial damage" to ties if Bangladesh joined the US-led Quad alliance. On May 10, 2021, the then Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Li Jiming said Bangladesh should not join Quad, and if it did, then Dhaka's relations with Beijing would "substantially get damaged." Terming Quad a military alliance aimed against China's resurgence and its relationship with neighbours, he claimed Bangladesh would not derive any benefits from the initiative.

All these statements and documents clearly show that keeping trade routes between Asia and the rest of the world free, open, and secure is at the core of the Indo-Pacific strategy or outlook. How China appears on the opposite side of the new strategic convergence of other nations is perhaps being better portrayed in the recent cat-and-mouse sea chase in the South China Sea. A BBC journalist, who witnessed and recorded the encounter on April 23, said a Chinese Coast Guard ship blocked a Philippine patrol vessel, causing a near collision in the waters near Second Thomas Shoal in the remote Spratly archipelago. China claims almost the entire South China Sea, including the Spratly Islands, which is also claimed in part by the Philippines.

China still maintains its claim defying the 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in favour of the Philippines. There are also competing claims by Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, and Taiwan. The sea encounter took place just a day after Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr met Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang in Manila, and expressed hope for open communication lines on the South China Sea dispute. Similar territorial disputes exist between China and Japan in the East China Sea.

The unveiling of the Indo-Pacific Outlook has been broadly welcomed by many Bangladeshi analysts and diplomats, who have pointed out that it is based on the dictum "Friendship towards all, malice towards none." Whether this dictum would be enough to address the Chinese concern about committing to the objectives of rules-based order and a free and open Indo-Pacific has to be seen in the coming days.

There are also suggestions that this policy is aimed at making up with the US as the latter's insistence on making the next parliamentary elections free and fair and criticisms over human rights abuses and press freedom in Bangladesh have caused some strain in the bilateral relations. But the question is even if there was such an intent, whether that would have enough soothing effect.

Kamal Ahmed is an independent journalist.
 

Connectivity and Cooperation

The Bay of Bengal and Bangladesh in the Indo-Pacific region​


1710551018934.png

ILLUSTRATION: REHNUMA PROSHOON

Our Planet Earth is predominantly made up of oceans, with 71 percent of its surface covered in water. The Indian Ocean, the third largest ocean, is often referred to as the "Great Middle Bay" due to its location. The Bay of Bengal, the world's largest bay, measuring 2.17 million sq-km, can be seen as the central bay within the "Great Middle Bay" of the Indian Ocean.

As the Indo-Pacific narrative takes centre stage in global discussions, the Bay of Bengal is emerging as a critical region in the competition for control of sea lanes and global trade. Bangladesh's strategic location at the apex of the Bay of Bengal brings significant responsibilities as a facilitator and connector between regions and competing powers. Bangladesh's role in reviving regional connectivity holds global significance in the Indo-Pacific narrative, making it a key player in shaping the future of the region.

The Indian Ocean: Relevance for global trade, energy, and food security

Over 90 percent of global trade uses sea routes, with over 80 percent of maritime oil trade passing through the Indian Ocean. China's trade with ME, Africa, and Europe transits the Indian Ocean, while India's maritime trade is over 70 percent by volume. The Indian Ocean also holds valuable resources such as fisheries and minerals.

The Northern Indian Ocean is a crucial passageway for global east-west-east trade. Ensuring the uninterrupted flow of crude oil across the Indian Ocean and other oceanic regions is essential for major, middle, and minor powers. However, the risk of strategic competition escalating into active contestation is a danger that all must avoid.

Strategic importance of the Bay of Bengal in the Indian Ocean and power dynamics

The Bay of Bengal regains historically critical importance as an economic highway for commercial shipping routes between the Eastern and Western hemispheres. About half the world's container traffic passes through this region, while its ports handle approximately 33 percent of world trade.

The competition between India and China for access to Myanmar's offshore gas fields is driven by the quest for strategic resources such as oil and gas reserves and other minerals. The Northern Indian Ocean is a crucial trade route for global east-west-east trade. Ensuring the smooth flow of oil from the IOR to other oceanic regions is vital for major, middle, and minor powers. The risk of strategic competition escalating into active contestation is a looming danger that must be avoided.

The Bay of Bengal and the shaping of the Bangladeshi perspective

Bangladesh's historical legacy as part of pre-Partitioned Bengal shapes its perception of the region. Its strategic location at the apex of the Bay of Bengal positions it as a hub of connectivity between the Western and Eastern hemispheres, as well as the Indian Ocean and Pacific Oceanic regions.

With a significant youth population of nearly 50 percent of its over 170 million people, Bangladesh's demographic dividend is a potential force multiplier for even more accelerated growth in the future if effectively tapped into. It is a medium HDI country, ranking 129 out of 191 countries on UNDP's HDI list, outperforming other South Asian countries like India (131), Pakistan (161), and Afghanistan (180). Bangladesh's strategic value is further bolstered by its abundant hydrocarbon resources, including coal, oil, and gas, with significant potential.

The strategic importance of Bay of Bengal ports in colonial times

The discovery of hydrocarbon deposits in the Bay of Bengal region has shifted the focus of 21st-century neo-super colonial powers to this area, increasing its strategic significance. Enormous oil and gas reservoirs in the Bay of Bengal and its littorals, such as Sumatra, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Brunei, prompted Dutch colonists to form Royal Dutch Shell. Bangladesh, too, is believed to have abundant reserves of hydrocarbons, but inadequately explored.

Technological innovations enabling offshore resource extraction, political instability in the Persian Gulf/Central-West Asia regions, turbulence in the West Asian socio-political environment, and the rise of China and India as global powers have influenced the geopolitical and commercial strategies of the US, EU, Japan, and China in the region.

Bangladesh as a champion of regional cooperation

Bangladesh has been a proactive champion of regional cooperation in South Asia, showing vision and bold initiatives. It led to forming Saarc in 1985 and proposed sub-regional cooperation resulting in SAGQ (South Asian Growth Quadrangle) and Bimstec (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral, Technical and Economic Cooperation) in 1997. Bangladesh's visionary leadership led to the reincarnation of SAGQ as BBIN in 2015, making significant progress in reviving severed connectivity.

However, internal instability in Myanmar and the Rohingya crisis severely impedes these projects, stalling progress. Considering recent progress, expanding cooperation to embrace a Bay of Bengal Economic Cooperation (BoBEC) framework could be possible. Challenges like the Rohingya crisis and instability in Myanmar must be addressed for seamless regional connectivity and cooperation.

Towards greater cooperation in the Indo-Pacific regions

The Westphalian order led to European colonialism, while the fall of colonial powers after World War II marked the rise of new superpowers and the era of "neo-super colonialism." Lesser powers must strategise for survival in a world dominated by global giants. Similar to the "divide and rule" method of European colonial powers, neo-super colonists use similar tools to divide nations against each other in today's global power play.

The Bay of Bengal, an integral part of the Indian Ocean with a population of 1.7 billion and a GDP of $7 trillion, can form a "community" of nations bridging Saarc and Asean regions, enhancing overall cooperation. Sub-regional cooperation within Saarc and IORA could further contribute to regional cohesion.

The political economy of a probable Bay of Bengal "community"

The Bay of Bengal countries, with a population of 1.7 billion and a GDP of $7 trillion, can become a formidable "community." The region has a dispute-free maritime environment and fast-growing economies and is a battleground for competing narratives from significant superpowers. Collaboration among these countries is crucial to address ecological threats and ensure a sustainable blue economy.

A cohesive community of Bay of Bengal littorals, initially through a Bay of Bengal Economic Cooperation Association (BoBECA) that could evolve into a Bay of Bengal Community (BOBC), could unlock limitless possibilities for prosperity. Bangladesh has proactively fostered greater Bay of Bengal Economic Cooperation, promoting peaceful connectivity, trade, and social development. This leadership role would serve Bangladesh's self-interest, contribute to the collective regional interest, and enhance its sense of security. A regional governance framework for the Bay of Bengal microcosmic entity could serve as a model for other regions.

The Bay of Bengal countries have the potential to form a cohesive community that fosters economic cooperation, promotes peaceful connectivity, and addresses common challenges, charting a path towards prosperity and security for the region and beyond. And Bangladesh, as a bridging nation and a rising middle power, is well poised to play a leadership role, enjoying as it does equally good overall relations with all powers, whether competing or not.

After all, Bangladesh is situated at the epicentre of the Indo-Pacific!

This article is drawn from the 8th ISAS Public Lecture delivered by the author on January 26, 2023 in Singapore on the subject "Connectivity and Cooperation: Bangladesh in the Indo-Pacific Region."

Tariq Karim is a retired ambassador, and is currently the director of the Centre for Bay of Bengal Studies at Independent University, Bangladesh (IUB), a distinguished visiting research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies in the National University of Singapore (NUS), and honorary adviser emeritus of the Cosmos Foundation.
 

'Want Bangladesh to be a net security provider in the region'
Says US political officer

1714173965191.png

Photo: Collected

The US wants Bangladesh to be a net security provider in the Indo-Pacific region as the country has made exponential progress since independence and demonstrated its capacity in helping the regional countries, said a US official.

It also wants to see Bangladesh as a prosperous country having the principles of democracy, good governance and human rights, which is why Washington has been speaking aloud on free elections and taken actions against Rab, he said.

Maxwell Martin, political officer at the US embassy in Dhaka, said this at a briefing on the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) and implications for Bangladesh at the embassy yesterday as IPS has renewed focus in the region including South Asia.

Martin said the US supported Bangladesh Armed Forces with training, capacity building and equipment in countering terrorism. Bangladesh also made exponential progress, supporting Myanmar during the cyclones last year, responding positively in sheltering the Rohingya and its contribution to the UN peacekeeping is notable.

"You have seen us become more open and vocal about the political situation in Bangladesh. This is part of the IPS. We are also engaged in multiple fronts that include economy, security and politics."

Martin said, "We thought our sanction against Rab was important for that unit to change their behavior in order for Bangladesh to uphold these principles."

The US embassy in Dhaka now has a labour attaché and trade representative, which means it is helping Bangladesh improve labour conditions as well as support policies that help attract more foreign investments, he said.

He said the IPS, which was released in February 2022, is often wrongly understood as an alliance and meant to counter China.

China launched its global strategic programme Belt and Road Initiative in 2013.

Martin said the IPS does not seek to become a military alliance against any country.

"Our vision is not about forcing countries to choose between the UN and other partner. It is about ensuring that the region is free and open so countries can freely make their own choices," he said.

Martin recognised that Bangladesh maintains a balanced foreign policy, having relations with countries be it China, India, Russia or the US.​
 
Becoming a US-sponsored security provider in the Indo-Pacific is never mutually compatible with this notion: 🇧🇩 - China is a Time Tested Friend and a Strategic Partner of Bangladesh. If Bengalis consider other people to be fools, they are just trying to bite more than they can chew in the name of a "balancing act." It is unrealistic to try to balance two mutually conflicting vertical poles. It is doubtful that they will realize the paradox here.
@Vikings How do you feel about this suicidal and unbalancing act? While the US forgives occasional traitors, the Chinese are unforgiving on that issue- ask Tareq Rehman's orthopedic physician. Is the Hasina government that much fool? I don't believe it.
 
Becoming a US-sponsored security provider in the Indo-Pacific is never mutually compatible with this notion: 🇧🇩 - China is a Time Tested Friend and a Strategic Partner of Bangladesh. If Bengalis consider other people to be fools, they are just trying to bite more than they can chew in the name of a "balancing act." It is unrealistic to try to balance two mutually conflicting vertical poles. It is doubtful that they will realize the paradox here.
@Vikings How do you feel about this suicidal and unbalancing act? While the US forgives occasional traitors, the Chinese are unforgiving on that issue- ask Tareq Rehman's orthopedic physician. Is the Hasina government that much fool? I don't believe it.
How has Pakistan been balancing its relations with China and the USA? Today, Pakistan has gained a lot by being China's strategic partner and finds distinct advantage in retaining a fairly close relationship with the US. And the US, despite Pakistan's leanings toward China, considers Pakistan's role and cooperation valuable in the context of Afghanistan in particular and the region in general. Bangladesh has been following Pakistan's path with regards to its relations with China and the USA.
 
How has Pakistan been balancing its relations with China and the USA? Today, Pakistan has gained a lot by being China's strategic partner and finds distinct advantage in retaining a fairly close relationship with the US. And the US, despite Pakistan's leanings toward China, considers Pakistan's role and cooperation valuable in the context of Afghanistan in particular and the region in general. Bangladesh has been following Pakistan's path with regards to its relations with China and the USA.
Pakistan is still under various US sanctions and has no declared role in the Indo-Pacific as opposed to Bangladesh. American Indo-Pacific policy is directed to contain China, where Pakistan has no role to play. Pakistan doesn't have to host Indian interests to balance India and China. Indians represent the US core policy in South Asia, where Pakistan has conflicting interests with the US on Afghanistan, Iran and India.
Therefore, Pakistan and Bangladesh are not following the same path.
 
Becoming a US-sponsored security provider in the Indo-Pacific is never mutually compatible with this notion: 🇧🇩 - China is a Time Tested Friend and a Strategic Partner of Bangladesh. If Bengalis consider other people to be fools, they are just trying to bite more than they can chew in the name of a "balancing act." It is unrealistic to try to balance two mutually conflicting vertical poles. It is doubtful that they will realize the paradox here.
@Vikings How do you feel about this suicidal and unbalancing act? While the US forgives occasional traitors, the Chinese are unforgiving on that issue- ask Tareq Rehman's orthopedic physician. Is the Hasina government that much fool? I don't believe it.
@Old School bhai, you know much better than me , still I would like to add my thoughts!

Actually if BAL want to balance , they will be digging their own grave , hence I believe BAL won't cooperate with USA and will will keep supporting China!

BAL politics are matured unlike BNP! We already knew it from last 16 years experience!

BAL is in power by successfully rigging elections ( selection I call it) , and they will keep doing it.

If they are talking to usa , it's just a formality , and diplomacy. They are just providing lip services to usa and west!

One can't be friend with Pakistan and India same time , neither can be partner of usa and China at the same time!

Tareq Rahman already understood how beating from army taste like!

Many people are giving example of Pakistan! I would humbly ask them the question, that, did Pakistan maintain a balance between USA and Soviet? No right?

It was Pakistan who were directly responsible for fall of Soviet alongside USA and some other USA allies.

Now condition has been changed and USA targets China, hence China won't let USA present in the bay of Bengal!
They simply don't let USA and NATO to put blockade in malacca straight which is life line for Chinese trade via sea route with rest of the world!

My compatriots should read map and study geography properly instead of driven by emotions and propaganda that they are fed by authority!

Indo Pacific strategy is to block China and an attempt to take China down on it's knees by taming them!

Why China will allow others to do it? Our compatriots should also learn the history of ww2 properly and take lesson from it! We know what enemy can do to China !

We know that when Japan put hostile naval blockade in malacca strait, British and its allies keep supplies to China by air route through India!

Now it's USA and it's allies try to do the same , then what China will do? They are surrounded by hostile entity like Japan and South Korea who are actually puppets of USA! Maybe the Philippines too are USA puppet ( correct me please if I'm wrong about the Philippines) !

So the best strategy for China is to keep the bay of Bengal safe!

If USA can have a base in this area, specially in andaman , it will be a piece of cake for them to contain China!

So Bangladesh is the only country who can let USA set foot on this area.

And China knows it very well that if Bangladesh co-operates with USA , then India will take the chance to take down China as well, because they have dirty wet dream of becoming a super power!

So China will be surrounded by enemies!

So in the name of balance if Bangladesh ( I would say BAL) try to betray China, BAL also will be kicked out from Bangladeshi politics forever, like BNP!

People may think that there is no other option than BNP and BAL in Bangladesh, so China has to support BNP that time.

But it's deadly wrong and very limited and shallow thinking.

Through deep state , super powers very easily create other strong parties or a strong dictatorship in any weaker countries , specially in red zones.

So if BAL proven a traitor to China, China will choose another way to take care of them!

Perhaps Tareq and also his mother Khaleda zia know it lot better than their fanboys!

I wrote on this topic in old PDF , but it looks only you were agreed and no Bangladeshi paid any attention!

But whatever maybe the case , in the end no small countries are completely independent, other than some super powers!

So balancing drama will no longer work , hence Hasina won't do any suicidal act in the name of balancing!

BAL ( read Hasina) is very mature in politics and also very cunning !

Surey Hasina doesn't want to lose her throne in this old age and don't end up in jail like Khaleda zia!

She always learn from BNP's mistake and apply it for her!

Like caretaker govt was BAL and jamati concept! When in 15 February election khaleda declared that only mentally handicapped people are infats are neutral in true sense, and arrange 15 February election , she didn't survive a month! Because of hostile protest of BAL and jamatis ( not mentioning JP because they have no strong base at grassroot)

On the other hand, BAL applied the same method in 2014 and later on 7 January 2024 , where is BNP now to take Hasina down? BNP is nowhere to be found!

So yes BAL won't repeat the mistake of BNP, specialy when China is much strong than 2004!

As soon as our people understand, it's better for them!

BNP is now boycotting even regional elections! What they will achieve? Nothing other than providing lip services!

And next generation will not remember BNP!

Hasina surely don't want the same fate for her, so there is no option to balance between the arch enemies!

China is way more powerful and matured than Soviet and it's a country with one party rule and CAPITALISTIC economy!

Hence USA will keep business relations with them for their own benefits!

So i hope Haisna and deep state of Bangladesh know what to do !
 
Last edited:

'Want Bangladesh to be a net security provider in the region'
Says US political officer

View attachment 5430
Photo: Collected

The US wants Bangladesh to be a net security provider in the Indo-Pacific region as the country has made exponential progress since independence and demonstrated its capacity in helping the regional countries, said a US official.

It also wants to see Bangladesh as a prosperous country having the principles of democracy, good governance and human rights, which is why Washington has been speaking aloud on free elections and taken actions against Rab, he said.

Maxwell Martin, political officer at the US embassy in Dhaka, said this at a briefing on the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) and implications for Bangladesh at the embassy yesterday as IPS has renewed focus in the region including South Asia.

Martin said the US supported Bangladesh Armed Forces with training, capacity building and equipment in countering terrorism. Bangladesh also made exponential progress, supporting Myanmar during the cyclones last year, responding positively in sheltering the Rohingya and its contribution to the UN peacekeeping is notable.

"You have seen us become more open and vocal about the political situation in Bangladesh. This is part of the IPS. We are also engaged in multiple fronts that include economy, security and politics."

Martin said, "We thought our sanction against Rab was important for that unit to change their behavior in order for Bangladesh to uphold these principles."

The US embassy in Dhaka now has a labour attaché and trade representative, which means it is helping Bangladesh improve labour conditions as well as support policies that help attract more foreign investments, he said.

He said the IPS, which was released in February 2022, is often wrongly understood as an alliance and meant to counter China.

China launched its global strategic programme Belt and Road Initiative in 2013.

Martin said the IPS does not seek to become a military alliance against any country.

"Our vision is not about forcing countries to choose between the UN and other partner. It is about ensuring that the region is free and open so countries can freely make their own choices," he said.

Martin recognised that Bangladesh maintains a balanced foreign policy, having relations with countries be it China, India, Russia or the US.​

Martin is a Yahood name.

He works for the State Dept. but has zio agenda as well which is supported by his employer.
 
@Old School bhai, you know much better than me , still I would like to add my thoughts!

Actually if BAL want to balance , they will be digging their own grave , hence I believe BAL won't cooperate with USA and will will keep supporting China!

BAL politics are matured unlike BNP! We already knew it from last 16 years experience!

BAL is in power by successfully rigging elections ( selection I call it) , and they will keep doing it.

If they are talking to usa , it's just a formality , and diplomacy. They are just providing lip services to usa and west!

One can't be friend with Pakistan and India same time , neither can be partner of usa and China at the same time!

Tareq Rahman already understood how beating from army taste like!

Many people are giving example of Pakistan! I would humbly ask them the question, that, did Pakistan maintain a balance between USA and Soviet? No right?

It was Pakistan who were directly responsible for fall of Soviet alongside USA and some other USA allies.

Now condition has been changed and USA targets China, hence China won't let USA present in the bay of Bengal!
They simply don't let USA and NATO to put blockade in malacca straight which is life line for Chinese trade via sea route with rest of the world!

My compatriots should read geography properly instead of driven by emotions and propaganda that they are fed by authority!

Indo Pacific strategy is to block China and an attempt to take China down on it's knees by taming them!

Why China will allow others to do it? Our compatriots should also learn the history of ww2 properly and take lesson from it! We know what enemy can do to China !

We know that when Japan put hostile naval blockade in malacca strait, British and its allies keep supplies to China by air route through India!

Now it's USA and it's allies try to do the same , then what China will do? They are surrounded by hostile entity like Japan and South Korea who are actually puppets of USA! Maybe the Philippines too are USA puppet ( correct me please if I'm wrong about the Philippines) !

So the best strategy for China is to keep the bay of Bengal safe!

If USA can have a base in this area, specially in andaman , it will be a piece of cake for them to contain China!

So Bangladesh is the only country who can let USA set foot on this area.

And China knows it very well thay if Bangladesh Co operate with USA , then India will take the chance to take down China as well, because they have dirty wet dream of becoming a super power!

So China will be surrounded by enemies!

So in the name of balance if Bangladesh ( I would say BAL) try to betray China, BAL also will be kicked out from Bangladeshi politics forever, like BNP!

People may think that there is no other option than BNP and BAL in Bangladesh, so China have to support BNP that time.

But it's deadly wrong and very limited and shallow thinking.

Through deep state , super powers very easily create other strong parties or a strong dictatorship in any weaker countries , specially in red zones.

So if BAL proven a traitor to China, China will choose another way to take care of them!

Perhaps Tareq and also his mother Khaleda zia know it lot better than their fanboys!

I wrote on this topic in old PDF , but it looks only you were agreed and no Bangladeshi paid any attention!

But whatever maybe the case , in the end no small countries are completely independent, other than some super powers!

So balancing drama will no longer work , hence Hasina won't do any suicidal act in the name of balancing!

BAL ( rear Hasina) is very matured in politics and also very cunning !

Surey Hasina doesn't want to lose her thrown in this old age and don't end up in jail like Khaleda zia!

She always learn from BNP's mistake and apply it for her!

Like caretaker govt was BAL and jamati concept! When in 15 February election khaleda declared that only mentally handicapped people are infats are neutral in true sense, and arrange 15 February election , she didn't survive a month! Because of hostile protest of BAL and jamatis ( not mentioning JP because they have no strong base at grassroot)

On the other hand, BAL applied the same method in 2014 and later on 7 January 2024 , where is BNP now to take Hasina down? BNP is nowhere to be found!

So yes BAL won't repeat the mistake of BNP, specialy when China is much strong than 2004!

As soon as our people understand, it's better for them!

BNP is now boycotting even regional elections! What they will achieve? Nothing other than providing lip services!

And next generation will not remember BNP!

Hasina surely don't want the same fate for her, so there is no option to balance betweenteo arch enemies!

China is way more powerful and matured than Soviet and it's a country with one party rule and CAPITALISTIC economy!

Hence USA will keep business relations with them for their own benefits!

So i hope Haisna and deep state of Bangladesh know what to do !

You have accurately described the dynamics. Thank you. I hope your compatriots will read your valuable insights, which are far better than even a BD diplomat can ever describe!
 
Due to Bangladesh's strategic geographic location both China and the USA want Bangladesh to be friends with them. Bangladesh has been successfully balancing its relationship with China and the USA since the 70s. Bangladesh needs China to counter India---the greatest threat to our sovereignty and territorial integrity. China has been fulfilling our military needs by supplying cheap weapons and training. Our armed forces buy 70% of their weapons from China. China as a permanent member of UN security council has been supporting us in various international forums. So, China is an indispensable part of our strategic interest. We, simply cannot do without China. We have joined Belt and Road Initiative to deepen our relationship with China. On the other hand, the USA is our largest economic market and the loans we get from IMF and World Bank are also US money. Our economic development largely depends on the USA and its European allies. This is precisely why we have joined Indo-Pacific Strategy. When it comes to the US led Indo-Pacific Strategy Dhaka says it is with the initiative for its development goals but not as a military or defense alliance. I think Bangladesh is doing great in the area of balancing its ties with the two largest superpowers, China and the USA, of the world.
 

Member Search / Jot Notes

Back