[🇮🇳] Instant View: India's economy grows 7.8% in April-June quarter

[Krishna with Flute]

Date of Event: Aug 30, 2025

Source : https://www.reuters.com/world/india/view-indias-economy-grows-78-april-june-quarter-2025-08-29/

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Instant View: India's economy grows 7.8% in April-June quarter​

By Reuters
August 29, 20255:05 PM GMT+5:30Updated 22 hours ago


Aug 29 (Reuters) - India's economy unexpectedly expanded 7.8% year-on-year in the April-June quarter, picking up from 7.4% in the previous three months, data released on Friday showed.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast growth likely cooled to 6.7% in the quarter and said it would continue to slow as a sharp hike in U.S. tariffs threatens Indian exporters and jobs.
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MADHAVI ARORA, LEAD ECONOMIST, EMKAY GLOBAL, MUMBAI​

"The super healthy GDP growth print in the first quarter has gotten a temporary boost from extremely soft deflator, front-loaded government spending (unlike last year), along with front-loaded exports to the US. Some of these factors will reverse as we move ahead.



"Besides, the effective macro hit from the 50% tariff imposition will start to feed through exports and have a domino effect on employment, wages and private consumption. This could further dampen private investment outlook and hinder growth,
"However, on the face of it, softer deflator effect and some consumption buffer from GST cuts could offset the hit in real GDP growth as we move to calendar year 2026."
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UPASNA BHARDWAJ, CHIEF ECONOMIST, KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK, MUMBAI​

"The sharply higher-than-expected first-quarter GDP data provides a reasonable upside to our earlier full-year estimate of 6.2%.
"However, we remain fairly cautious on the way ahead amid expected slowdown in exports from higher tariffs along with deferring in production ahead of GST rate cuts.
"We expect some policy interventions to help offset the adverse impact of the tariff impact on exporters."

ADITI NAYAR, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ICRA, GURUGRAM​

"After the unexpectedly strong first quarter of FY2026, a lower year-over-year momentum of government capex and the looming hit to exports from the U.S. tariff and penalties would dampen growth prints in the coming quarters, notwithstanding the balm offered by GST rationalisation.
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"Amidst continuing uncertainty, we maintain our baseline GDP growth forecast at 6.0% for FY2026.
"The sharper-than-expected GDP growth print, which represents an acceleration over the previous quarter, has doused any expectations that the tariff-related turmoil could prompt monetary easing in the October 2025 policy review."

RADHIKA RAO, SENIOR ECONOMIST, DBS BANK, SINGAPORE​

"A sharp upside surprise in growth numbers belied consensus expectations for a slowdown. This was a product of strong service sector output benefiting from low deflators, coupled with firm farm output, and a jump in revenue as well as capital government spending.
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"A bigger watch factor is the sub-9% nominal GDP growth, which has second derivative impact on tax collections and corporate profit performance.
"Markets will switch focus to the catalysts for rest of the year, which faces an interplay of tariff-related impact, passage of front-loading of exports, boost from GST rationalisation and government spending trend with an eye on revenues."

SACHCHIDANAND SHUKLA, GROUP CHIEF ECONOMIST, LARSEN & TOUBRO, MUMBAI​

"The first-quarter numbers have surprised all.

 

[Krishna with Flute]

Once again all estimates proved to be wrong.

 

[Bilal9]

Once again all estimates proved to be wrong.

Let's hope it stays that track but Trump-wallah effect is to take place soon.

All business pointers for India look downward from now on...

 

[Krishna with Flute]

Let's hope it stays that track but Trump-wallah effect is to take place soon.

All business pointers for India look downward from now on...

It is estimated to be between 0.1 to 0.4%. Assume 0.4 for your satisfaction. Even though it works out to be 7.4%. Reduce Another 0.4%. Still it will be 7%. Far higher than No2.

 

[Krishna with Flute]

Let's hope it stays that track but Trump-wallah effect is to take place soon.

All business pointers for India look downward from now on...

We have been here together for quite some time. Result of India's GDP is always opposite to your wish.

 

[Krishna with Flute]

Modi has started acting now. Waqf act amended. Hemanta and Yogi and Yadav are quite active. Economy is doing great. In defense, we are doing some exceptional progress. Only one area need to be addressed and that is jet engine. We have one critical decade ahead. We need one fine decade and we shall be far more stronger. Modi has made world to respect India.

 

[Bilal9]

We have been here together for quite some time. Result of India's GDP is always opposite to your wish.

My wish has nothing to do with it. Just going by current events and their repercussions to global trade and exports from India (IT sector is next).

Read more at:​

‘Severe sectoral pain’: India’s exports to US fall for third straight month as Trump imposes 50% tariffs; what should be the policy response? - The Times of India​

Trump's IT sector tariff is expected to significantly impact India's economy by threatening the country's major source of white-collar job creation, particularly in the IT services sector. This could lead to job losses and slow overall economic growth, as many industries in India rely on the IT sector for support.

Effects on the IT Sector​

• The IT services sector is crucial for India, employing over 2 million professionals and supporting various industries like automobile and consumer electronics.
• Concerns are rising that the tariff could lead to job losses and reduced economic growth, as many companies may reconsider outsourcing to India.

Broader Economic Consequences​

• A decline in the IT sector could have a ripple effect on other industries, potentially slowing overall economic growth.
• The tariff may also undermine India's ambitions to become a major manufacturing hub, as it puts Indian exports at a disadvantage compared to countries like China.

Job Market and Exports​

• The Global Trade Research Initiative estimates that Indian exports to the U.S. could drop from $86.5 billion to about $50 billion by 2026 due to the tariff.
• Sectors like textiles, gems, and jewelry are expected to be hit hardest, risking hundreds of thousands of jobs.

 

[Cryptonian]

My wish has nothing to do with it. Just going by current events and their repercussions to global trade and exports from India (IT sector is next).

Read more at:​

‘Severe sectoral pain’: India’s exports to US fall for third straight month as Trump imposes 50% tariffs; what should be the policy response? - The Times of India​

Trump's IT sector tariff is expected to significantly impact India's economy by threatening the country's major source of white-collar job creation, particularly in the IT services sector. This could lead to job losses and slow overall economic growth, as many industries in India rely on the IT sector for support.

Effects on the IT Sector​

• The IT services sector is crucial for India, employing over 2 million professionals and supporting various industries like automobile and consumer electronics.
• Concerns are rising that the tariff could lead to job losses and reduced economic growth, as many companies may reconsider outsourcing to India.

Broader Economic Consequences​

• A decline in the IT sector could have a ripple effect on other industries, potentially slowing overall economic growth.
• The tariff may also undermine India's ambitions to become a major manufacturing hub, as it puts Indian exports at a disadvantage compared to countries like China.

Job Market and Exports​

• The Global Trade Research Initiative estimates that Indian exports to the U.S. could drop from $86.5 billion to about $50 billion by 2026 due to the tariff.
• Sectors like textiles, gems, and jewelry are expected to be hit hardest, risking hundreds of thousands of jobs.

Huge Tariffs are imposed on India, but it's BD whose exports declined in lastest month, While India's export grew overall.

 

[Bilal9]

Huge Tariffs are imposed on India, but it's BD whose exports declined in lastest month, While India's export grew overall.

View attachment 22276
View attachment 22277

What you see on the Indian side is just last minute volley of exports to skirt the punitive tariffs. That explains the growth in export numbers.

Bangladesh has been politically unstable (July 2024 student revolution) which disrupted export logistics in temporary manner - but export numbers also do vary qtr to qtr. A 3% dip is nothing. Some months you will see a 12% increase compared to the same month the previous year.

In FY 2025, Bangladesh's exports reached approximately USD 48 billion, reflecting an 8.58% growth compared to USD 44 billion in 2024.

Exports see 11.44% YoY growth, hit $4.25b in March

The Ready-Made Garments (RMG) sector, traditionally the cornerstone of Bangladesh's export basket, retained its leading position

www.tbsnews.net

Exports rise by 8.58pc, hit $48b in FY25

However, there was a notable decline in export earnings in June 2025 due to various factors, including holidays and port shutdowns.

I am hearing this morning that the punitive tariffs by Trump on India may be easing and going back to 10-15%.

 

[Swas]

What you see on the Indian side is just last minute volley of exports to skirt the punitive tariffs. That explains the growth in export numbers.

Bangladesh has been politically unstable (July 2024 student revolution) which disrupted export logistics in temporary manner - but export numbers also do vary qtr to qtr. A 3% dip is nothing. Some months you will see a 12% increase compared to the same month the previous year.

In FY 2025, Bangladesh's exports reached approximately USD 48 billion, reflecting an 8.58% growth compared to USD 44 billion in 2024.

Exports see 11.44% YoY growth, hit $4.25b in March

The Ready-Made Garments (RMG) sector, traditionally the cornerstone of Bangladesh's export basket, retained its leading position

www.tbsnews.net

Exports rise by 8.58pc, hit $48b in FY25

However, there was a notable decline in export earnings in June 2025 due to various factors, including holidays and port shutdowns.

I am hearing this morning that the punitive tariffs by Trump on India may be easing and going back to 10-15%.

Barring Covid Crisis India's GDP growth has always hovered around 7-8%.

BD has also done well, but BD's growth comes from sectors such as textile where growth is limited only when the local salaries remain low, which means it can pull a dirt-poor coutnry out of poverty but not increase wealth substnically.

India's growth is mroe technological sectors, primarily because of India's strog educational sector. BD has poorer education thn even it's West-Bengal Indian counterpart primarily due to 24 year eposur to the West-Pakistani virus.