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US election: What is at stake for Bangladesh’s export

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As millions of Americans head to the polls on November 5 to vote for either Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris or her Republican rival Donald Trump, apparel business communities in Bangladesh, more than 13,119 kilometres away from Washington, will be watching the results of the presidential election closely.

The reason is largely related to trade, as the US is the single largest buyer of ready-made garments made in Bangladesh -- the world's second-largest apparel manufacturer after China.

Local RMG makers believe US trade policy toward China, a major competitor in the global apparel market, will be crucial for their business in the coming years.

Besides, the role of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and other global trade organisations will be important as Bangladesh transitions to a developing country in 2026.

Apparel exporters say Republican Candidate Trump's plan to impose higher tariffs on imports from China could boost Bangladesh's garment exports.

But, they fear that a Trump presidency could also lead to challenges for multilateral trading institutions like the WTO and intensified global export competition.

Last year, Bangladesh exported $8.27 billion worth of garment items to the US, facing a 15.62 percent tariff.

Under both Democratic and Republican administrations, garment exports from Bangladesh to the US have remained relatively stable.

During Trump's presidency from 2017 to 2021, Bangladesh's share of garment exports to the US fluctuated between 17 percent and 18.90 percent, according to the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA).

Under Democratic President Joe Biden, the share has not increased too much, varying between 21.15 percent and 18.12 percent.

Asking not to be named, a renowned garment exporter to the USA from Bangladesh said Trump's anti-China move could eventually benefit Bangladesh. If he imposes more tariffs on Chinese products, there is a possibility of work orders shifting to Bangladesh.

Khandoker Rafiqul Islam, immediate president of the BGMEA, said Trump's additional tariff on Chinese goods plan has already prompted many US-based clothing retailers and brands to look for alternative sourcing destinations such as Bangladesh and Vietnam.

"If Harris is elected, it is expected that the existing US tariff will continue for China. In this case, Bangladesh's business may not be affected negatively but the possibility of an export jump is thin," he said.

However, Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, chairman of the Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), a private research organisation, said there could be a significant change in approaches between Trump and Harris.

For instance, if Trump is elected, multilateral institutions and organisations like the WTO may face challenges.

"Trump may adopt a more anti-China policy and impose more tariffs on import of Chinese goods to the USA," Razzaque said, "In this case, Bangladesh may be benefited indirectly as there is a possibility of shifting of work orders from China to Bangladesh."

However, an identified geo-political rivalry and undermining the fundamental multilateral trading system may result in a demand slump, he said.

The RAPID chairman said demand for garment items has been declining over the past three to four years and most G-20 countries, including the US, have adopted protectionist trade policies.

He said Bangladesh may face additional challenges when it graduates from a Least Developed Country (LDC) to a developing nation in 2026. Rules-based trade may be affected.

According to Razzaque, a Democratic administration could lead to less intense geopolitical tensions, possibly benefiting Bangladesh through the maintenance of the multilateral trading system.

However, he reminded that the US's main interest remains containing China.

Masrur Reaz, chairman of the Policy Exchange Bangladesh, echoed Razzaque's views.

Reaz said Donald Trump was aggressive in imposing tariffs on Chinese imports during his previous term. If re-elected, he may adopt an even more aggressive stance toward Chinese imports.

Bangladesh should also restart negotiations with the US to revive the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) for US markets, as the relationship between the two countries is improving, said Reaz.

Since the expiration of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement in 2004, Bangladesh has not enjoyed any tariff preferences on garment exports to the US.

Before the Trump administration imposed a 25 percent tariff on Chinese goods in January 2018, Chinese exporters faced a 3.08 percent duty on garment exports to the US.

According to the Hong Kong Ministerial Declaration of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the US was supposed to provide duty-free market access for all products from LDCs. However, the US government granted duty-free access to only 97 percent of products.

As an LDC, Bangladesh's garment exports were expected to be included in the 97 percent duty-free category, but apparel products were excluded from this package.​
 

US election: What is at stake for Bangladesh’s export

View attachment 10233


As millions of Americans head to the polls on November 5 to vote for either Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris or her Republican rival Donald Trump, apparel business communities in Bangladesh, more than 13,119 kilometres away from Washington, will be watching the results of the presidential election closely.

The reason is largely related to trade, as the US is the single largest buyer of ready-made garments made in Bangladesh -- the world's second-largest apparel manufacturer after China.

Local RMG makers believe US trade policy toward China, a major competitor in the global apparel market, will be crucial for their business in the coming years.

Besides, the role of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and other global trade organisations will be important as Bangladesh transitions to a developing country in 2026.

Apparel exporters say Republican Candidate Trump's plan to impose higher tariffs on imports from China could boost Bangladesh's garment exports.

But, they fear that a Trump presidency could also lead to challenges for multilateral trading institutions like the WTO and intensified global export competition.

Last year, Bangladesh exported $8.27 billion worth of garment items to the US, facing a 15.62 percent tariff.

Under both Democratic and Republican administrations, garment exports from Bangladesh to the US have remained relatively stable.

During Trump's presidency from 2017 to 2021, Bangladesh's share of garment exports to the US fluctuated between 17 percent and 18.90 percent, according to the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA).

Under Democratic President Joe Biden, the share has not increased too much, varying between 21.15 percent and 18.12 percent.

Asking not to be named, a renowned garment exporter to the USA from Bangladesh said Trump's anti-China move could eventually benefit Bangladesh. If he imposes more tariffs on Chinese products, there is a possibility of work orders shifting to Bangladesh.

Khandoker Rafiqul Islam, immediate president of the BGMEA, said Trump's additional tariff on Chinese goods plan has already prompted many US-based clothing retailers and brands to look for alternative sourcing destinations such as Bangladesh and Vietnam.

"If Harris is elected, it is expected that the existing US tariff will continue for China. In this case, Bangladesh's business may not be affected negatively but the possibility of an export jump is thin," he said.

However, Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, chairman of the Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), a private research organisation, said there could be a significant change in approaches between Trump and Harris.

For instance, if Trump is elected, multilateral institutions and organisations like the WTO may face challenges.

"Trump may adopt a more anti-China policy and impose more tariffs on import of Chinese goods to the USA," Razzaque said, "In this case, Bangladesh may be benefited indirectly as there is a possibility of shifting of work orders from China to Bangladesh."

However, an identified geo-political rivalry and undermining the fundamental multilateral trading system may result in a demand slump, he said.

The RAPID chairman said demand for garment items has been declining over the past three to four years and most G-20 countries, including the US, have adopted protectionist trade policies.

He said Bangladesh may face additional challenges when it graduates from a Least Developed Country (LDC) to a developing nation in 2026. Rules-based trade may be affected.

According to Razzaque, a Democratic administration could lead to less intense geopolitical tensions, possibly benefiting Bangladesh through the maintenance of the multilateral trading system.

However, he reminded that the US's main interest remains containing China.

Masrur Reaz, chairman of the Policy Exchange Bangladesh, echoed Razzaque's views.

Reaz said Donald Trump was aggressive in imposing tariffs on Chinese imports during his previous term. If re-elected, he may adopt an even more aggressive stance toward Chinese imports.

Bangladesh should also restart negotiations with the US to revive the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) for US markets, as the relationship between the two countries is improving, said Reaz.

Since the expiration of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement in 2004, Bangladesh has not enjoyed any tariff preferences on garment exports to the US.

Before the Trump administration imposed a 25 percent tariff on Chinese goods in January 2018, Chinese exporters faced a 3.08 percent duty on garment exports to the US.

According to the Hong Kong Ministerial Declaration of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the US was supposed to provide duty-free market access for all products from LDCs. However, the US government granted duty-free access to only 97 percent of products.

As an LDC, Bangladesh's garment exports were expected to be included in the 97 percent duty-free category, but apparel products were excluded from this package.​

Trump was importing Bangladesh-made dress shirts through one of his companies sometime ago, he mentioned this during a visit to the Letterman Show on one occasion. He was quite impressed with the quality.

But we should negotiate GSP privileges with whichever administration comes to power.
 
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Exports see 19pc growth in October​

Many exporters could not ship goods on time in July-September due to quota reform movement, political changeover in the student-led uprising and unrest in industrial areas. Many of these stalled goods were shipped last month.

Staff Correspondent
Dhaka

Published: 06 Nov 2024, 20: 15

Workers are seen handling a container at Chattogram sea port in 7 February 2022

Workers are seen handling a container at Chattogram sea port . Prothom Alo file photo

After major shocks in the production sector of the country in July-August, the exports have started to bounce back rapidly. In October, the country saw 18.5 per cent growth in exports.

Exports rose 16 per cent in the previous month, September, as well. The export growths were around 3 and 5.5 per cent in July and August respectively, the first two months of the current fiscal year.

National Board of Revenue (NBR) data shows that Bangladesh exported goods worth USD 4.13 billion in October, posting an 18.68 per cent (USD 650 million) year-on-year rise.

Bangladesh exported USD 3.82 billion, 4.07 billion and 3.86 billion respectively in July, August and September.

NBR's account of exports of these commodities also includes information on Export Processing Zone’s (EPZ) deemed exports and sample exports. However, the amount is not much.

Several exporters said many exporters could not ship goods on time in July-September due to quota reform movement, political changeover in the student-led uprising and unrest in industrial areas. Many of these stalled goods were shipped last month. Apart from this, exports are increasing as shipment of goods increases ahead of winter and Christmas.

According to the NBR data, goods worth USD 15.88 billion were exported in the first four months of the current fiscal year, which is USD 1.51 billion more than the corresponding period of the previous year. Besides the amount of money exports have also increased in terms of quantity.

The quantity of export was 530 million kilogram in last July, 570 kilogram in August and 580 million kilogram in September. The exports rose to 590 million in October. In total, 2.23 billion kilograms of goods were exported in the first four months of the current fiscal year, which was 2.19 billion in the same period the previous year.

Bangladesh Bank released the balance of payments data on the basis of actual commodity exports last July resulting in disclosure of a huge discrepancy in the exports.

At that time, the central Bank stated that Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) had been publishing export data for a long time, but the income was not coming to the country.

This discrepancy raised questions among local and foreign organizations. An assessment found that the export data was shown inflated. A decision was made to prepare export data based on actual earnings.

Following the revelation of significant discrepancies, EPB paused publishing the data. Last month, the EPB revealed that goods worth USD 11.37 billion were exported from the country in the first three months of the current fiscal year while the amount was USD 10.82 in the corresponding period of the last year.
https://news.google.com/publications/CAAqBwgKMOC2lwsw09-uAw?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
 

Strategising export diversification
Wasi Ahmed
Published :
Nov 19, 2024 22:36
Updated :
Nov 19, 2024 22:36

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Export diversification has long figured prominently in discussions about the country's export strategy, driven primarily by the overwhelming reliance on ready-made garments (RMG). The push for diversification stems from the need to strengthen the overall export sector by reducing dependence on a single product and enhancing the performance of other products in the export basket. The underlying argument here is: the export basket has hundreds of products but as most of them suffer from poor performance, diversifying the basket means adding vigour and strength to the products so that the export sector can rid itself of over-reliance on a single product. Keeping this in view, the government has been framing policies from time to time with special emphasis on prospective products by way of various incentives and supports. To say that these have not at all worked is not true, but there is no visible momentum in exports, except in respect of only a few core products, including the RMG. Actually, diversifying is a package comprising scores of issues from product development, product adaptation, quality assurance, market demand, compliance, competitive pricing and so on.

So, when one speaks about diversification, it must not be seen as a remedy readily available. It has to be worked on, in a planned manner taking into account all relevant factors as a package. In the past the Export Promotion Bureau undertook many foreign aided export development projects. However, as many of the projects approached the aforementioned package only partially, the outcome was far from satisfactory.

Recently, it has been reported that a multi-donor funded export diversification project of the government is languishing with very little works done so far. No doubt a pathetic case, it needs to be brought under the scanner to see if the project had been completed in due time, could we say its goal was accomplished? Unfortunately, No. This is because such projects can at best disseminate information on various relevant issues including training the manpower with required knowledge. But there is a lot more to the job, and these can only be taken up by a comprehensive medium-term plan with sufficient fund allocation and required infrastructural facilities.

The reason diversification figures so prominently in public discussions on export is because of its many tangible benefits.

Diversifying the export composition protects a country from the risk of an unpredictable declining trend in international prices of exportable commodities that, in turn, leads to unstable export earnings. Export diversification could, therefore, help out to stabilise export earnings in the long run.

Due to the absence of export diversification in developing countries, decline and fluctuations in export earnings have negatively influenced income, investment, and employment. Diversification provides the opportunities to extend investment risks over a wider portfolio of the economic sector which eventually increases income. Diversification can also be seen as an input factor that has the effect of increasing the productivity of sub-sectors or what is called backward linkage industries. Furthermore, economic growth and structural change depend upon the type of products that are being traded. Thus export diversification allows an economy to achieve some of its macroeconomic objectives namely sustainable economic growth, satisfactory balance of payment situation, employment, and redistribution of income.

There are different strategies adopted by different countries, depending on the country-specific situations. In the Asian region, Thailand is a good example of pursuing diversification in keeping with the resources and infrastructure the country could make use of. It was a two-pronged strategy involving thrust on natural and agricultural resources on the one hand, and on the other, upgrading labour-intensive manufacturing. China, along with some East Asian countries, benefited from the rise in regional economic integration through the development of cross-country production networks courtesy of vertical integration of production chains.

Strategising is what really matters most, and to do that, intensive research is required to identify which model to stick to. Also this would require product and market-specific studies to be able to tell the strengths and weaknesses in respective areas. However, considering the trends of Bangladesh's exports, it is not too difficult to identify some potential and prospective products, and although there are provisions of fiscal and other incentives for them, the fact remains these supports are of little use in the absence of a medium-to-long term strategy to stimulate the products with a robust supply chain. That is to say, facilitation does not mean incentives alone but drawing up and working on a roadmap for product development and putting in place institutional and infrastructural support in a smart manner.

For quite sometime, Bangladesh's export basket comprises a core group of products besides RMG, the number one product. These include: jute and jute goods, leather and leather goods, frozen foods including shrimp, agro-processed foods, cement, pharmaceuticals etc. In around a decade or so, a handful of other products have demonstrated great potential, such as-- shipbuilding, ICT, light engineering, plastic. The government does recognise the importance of the emerging items, but whatever facilities they received remained confined to fiscal incentives.

No doubt, confronting the post-LDC challenges requires a robust export sector reinforced by policy reforms in order to provide impetus to diversification. Strategising a proper roadmap must be at the focal point to move in that direction.​
 

Jute product makers may see good time ahead with government policy​

BTJ Desk Report
12/10/202406
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Jute product makers may see good time ahead with government policy


Bangladesh’s jute and jute goods exports have been declining as buyers increasingly turn to synthetic and regenerated cotton yarn due to high domestic jute prices. The country, the second-largest jute producer globally, heavily depends on exports since domestic demand is insufficient. Export earnings from jute fell 6% year-on-year to $925 million in FY24, continuing a downward trend from $1.16 billion in FY22. In the first quarter of FY25, jute exports dropped by 20% to $178 million, with raw jute exports declining by 31% and jute yarn by 20%.

Several factors contribute to this decline. Rising local jute prices, unhealthy competition among millers, and increased demand for alternatives like polypropylene yarn and regenerated cotton in the global market are key issues. The price surge, driven by reduced jute production (down 18% in FY25) and stoker buying up supplies, has made it difficult for jute mills to remain competitive. Additionally, freight costs and limited domestic jute use further hamper the sector.

Industry stakeholders are urging the government to implement mandatory jute sack usage laws to protect the sector, which employs around four crore people. Many mills have scaled back or halted production due to rising costs and stagnant international prices.
 

BIDA creates 'FDI Heatmap' prioritising 19 sectors to boost investment​

Investment

The prioritised sectors include Core apparel, Advanced technical textiles, Renewable energy, Leather, Automotive and parts, Pharma, Plastic, Light engineering, Footwear, Electronics, Semiconductor, Agro-processing, Toy, Medical Devices, EV Battery, Information Technology Specialist (IT-ES), Logistics and Application programming interface (API)

The interesting and informative PDF can be explored here which discusses FDI roadmap priorities according to sector importance,

 

Bangladesh's export future: education and research is the key

M G Quibria
Published :
Jun 03, 2025 23:30
Updated :
Jun 03, 2025 23:30

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In the globalised economy, the countries that have risen fastest and sustained growth longest are those that embraced exports. The 2008 World Bank Growth Report is unequivocal: countries with outward-oriented policies consistently outperformed those looking inward. For Bangladesh, a country that has made notable economic strides in recent decades, expanding and diversifying its exports is not just a policy option-it is an economic imperative.

While Bangladesh has made significant strides in its export growth over the past 50 years, there are alarming signs of decline. The export-to-GDP ratio has dropped from 20 per cent in 2010 to about 10 per cent in 2020, indicating a loss of trade competitiveness. This is a critical issue that needs immediate attention, especially when compared to Vietnam's exports, which have surged to seven times that of Bangladesh since the mid-1990s. Our export basket, in particular, remains woefully narrow, underscoring the urgent need for diversification.

Relying heavily on ready-made garments (RMG), which now account for more than 80 per cent of total exports, Bangladesh risks over-dependence on a single sector. Some recent projections by organisations such as Bloomberg Economics suggest that RMG exports are highly vulnerable and might suffer a decline in the coming years. Changing competitiveness is not only possible but also a fact of economic development. Diversification is necessary not only for economic resilience but also for long-term prosperity. To that end, we need both broader production capability and greater market access.

PRODUCTION CAPABILITY: The most significant hurdle here is Bangladesh's outdated and complex tariff structure. With average tariffs at 27 per cent compared to the global average of 5-6 per cent, the structure of tariffs disincentivises exports and encourages inefficient import substitution. This "anti-export bias" needs urgent correction.

Government policies such as cash incentives for exporters have been used to offset this bias. However, these are fiscally unsustainable and clash with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. Redirecting those funds to underfunded sectors like health and education would yield far greater national benefits.

The pharmaceutical sector serves as a compelling example of Bangladesh's export potential. The country has achieved self-sufficiency in generic drugs and exports to over 100 countries. However, to compete with global leaders like India, the country must transition into high-value segments such as biologics, biosimilars, and digital health. This leap demands serious investment in research and development (R&D) and higher education, the potential payoffs of which are significant.

Expanding into advanced pharmaceuticals is not merely a question of production capacity; it hinges crucially on the development of human capital. Cutting-edge pharmaceutical manufacturing, such as biosimilars or gene therapies, requires highly trained scientists, technicians, and regulatory experts. Establishing first-rate research institutions, fostering collaboration between universities and industry, and incentivising pharmaceutical research will be essential. Moreover, regulatory competence is critical. Developing a robust and transparent regulatory framework for drug approval, quality control, and international compliance requires trained pharmacists, lawyers, and public health experts. Without a well-educated workforce to manage these complex requirements, Bangladesh will struggle to gain international trust and market access for its pharmaceutical exports. As the global pharmaceutical industry becomes increasingly dependent on biotechnology, personalized medicine, and digital health innovations, human capital will determine not just competitiveness but viability.

Unfortunately, Bangladesh's past investment in education has often been insufficient and uneven. Public spending on education has consistently remained below the recommended threshold of 4-6 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), trailing behind many of its regional peers. Moreover, the quality of education has been a persistent concern-characterised by outdated curricula, inadequate infrastructure, undertrained teachers, and limited focus on STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) education. While students have stood as vanguards against authoritarianism, successive political regimes have ruthlessly exploited students for political purposes at the cost of their education and welfare. This systemic neglect and exploitation has left the country with a large unemployable labour force, but one that is predominantly low-skilled and ill-prepared for the demands of a knowledge-driven global economy.

To unlock the next stage of export-led growth, Bangladesh must commit to a transformative education agenda. This includes revamping school and university curricula to align with the needs of emerging industries, scaling up vocational and technical training, and building strong links between academia and industry. Special emphasis should be placed on fields critical to export diversification-such as pharmaceutical sciences, data analytics, engineering, and biotechnology. Only by equipping its youth with the skills demanded by modern global markets can Bangladesh truly diversify its export base and achieve sustainable economic resilience.

Another key to boosting production is foreign direct investment (FDI). FDI not only brings capital but integrates a country into global value chains (GVCs). Unfortunately, Bangladesh's poor infrastructure, weak governance, and political instability undermine investor confidence. Geographic proximity to a neighbourhood that is poor and sometimes hostile further complicates matters, making the Vietnam or Mexico model of FDI-led export expansion difficult to replicate.

MARKET ACCESS: Bangladesh currently enjoys generous trade preferences through Generalised System of Preference (GSP) schemes in the European Union (EU), Japan, Canada, and others. However, these benefits will evaporate with the country's graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status. Negotiating GSP-plus with the EU could soften the blow, but this, too, requires meeting stringent conditions.

Other options include joining large trade blocs like Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) or Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). RCEP is more flexible and focused on trade facilitation, while CPTPP demands significant domestic reforms in areas like labor rights, environmental standards, and intellectual property. Policymakers must carefully evaluate the costs and benefits of each.

EXTERNAL CHALLENGE: The external environment is no less challenging. The recent era of United States (US) trade policy-marked by tariff hikes and scepticism of global trade institutions-has left a legacy of economic fragmentation. For Bangladesh, which relies on export markets, any contraction in global trade flows will have outsized effects.

If the world fragments into regional trading blocs or shifts toward greater protectionism, developing countries like Bangladesh risk being squeezed out. Already, signs of such fragmentation are visible, from tariff wars to the weakening of the WTO. The future of global trade is increasingly uncertain.

END NOTE: The future of exports lies not just in goods but in people. Higher-value manufacturing and service exports require an educated, adaptable workforce. As automation and artificial intelligence (AI) reshape industries, unskilled labour will find fewer opportunities. Instead, knowledge-intensive sectors-from IT to finance to digital health-will drive the next wave of growth. This underscores the critical importance of investing in education, vocational training, and digital infrastructure as part of our export strategies.

This makes investments in education, vocational training, and digital infrastructure not just good social policies but export strategies. Without a skilled labour force, Bangladesh cannot compete in the services sector. Service trade has fewer restrictions, and globally, it is growing faster than manufacturing trade.

Bangladesh stands at a crossroads. The gains of the past decades have been remarkable, but they rest on a narrow base. In the future, export success will depend on whether the country can diversify its products, modernise its trade and industrial policies, and invest in human capital. With thoughtful reforms and strategic investments, Bangladesh can become an active player in the global economy.

But the window of opportunity is narrowing. As the global trading system reshapes itself, Bangladesh must act swiftly-or risk being left behind.

Dr M G Quibria is a development economist and former Senior Advisor at the Asian Development Bank Institute. He is a

(non-resident) distinguished fellow at the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh (PRI) and is the co-editor of the recently published volume The Elgar Companion to the Asian Development Bank. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Princeton University.​
 

Govt releases Tk 2.5b in cash incentives for exporters

FE REPORT
Published :
Jun 05, 2025 15:26
Updated :
Jun 05, 2025 15:26

1749165935885.png


The government has released Tk 2.5 billion in cash incentives for the country's exporters, marking the fourth and final installment of the export subsidy allocated for the current fiscal year (FY 2024-25).

The Finance Division under the Ministry of Finance issued an official order regarding the disbursement on May 29.

As in previous cases, the incentive comes with specific conditions. The funds must be distributed to eligible export sectors through designated banks.

Besides, the banks concerned are not entitled to use the fund for other purposes, according to the order.

The order also warned that legal action would be taken against banks or exporters found to be non-compliant with the existing rules and provisions. The Bangladesh Bank (BB) will provide the incentives to the respective banks as per their requirements for disbursing the same among the eligible exporters.

Certain export-oriented sectors such as ready-made garment, frozen shrimp and other fish, leather items, jute and jute products are now entitled to get such incentives.

Earlier, the government reduced the rates of cash incentives against exports of all 43 categories of items by up to 50 per cent for fiscal year 2024-25.​
 

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