🇧🇩 A Strategic Analysis of Bangladesh Myanmar Relationship

[Saif]

A Strategic Analysis of Bangladesh Myanmar Relationship
By Saif​

Introduction

The strategic and security outlook of Bangladesh is governed by the principles of friendship with all nations and enmity with none, and of preventive diplomacy to engage in constructive dialogue with other nations to reduce the risks of conflict and to resolve disputes in an amicable manner. So, one should not be surprised that Bangladesh is very reluctant to view her neighbors as sources of security threat despite the fact that she is having some bilateral issues such as maritime boundary dispute, illegal refugee influx, illegal drugs and small arms trade along the border, and human trafficking with her neighbors, particularly India, and Myanmar due to their aggressive policy of non-cooperation. Although our stated policy is harmonious and amicable coexistence with all our neighbors, we should not be oblivious of the risk to peace and stability in the border, and therefore we should take cognizance of factors that could create threats to our national security while pursuing a friendly policy toward Myanmar.

In this article we will confine our discussion to understand Myanmar and future strategic scenarios, to discuss a multi-step conflict resolution model to recommend strategic goals to pursue and to find ways to resolve intervening bilateral outstanding issues, and to devise specific strategies to attain those goals to form strategic partnership with Myanmar for mutual benefit.

Study of Myanmar and Future Strategic Scenarios

It is imperative that we do a background study on Myanmar and strategic scenario analysis to anticipate change and assess risk across possible environments so as to formulate appropriate strategies to minimize threats.

Myanmar at a Glance

The Union of Myanmar with a geographical size of 676,578 sq km is the largest country in South-East Asia having borders with China on the North-East, Laos on the East, Thailand on the South-West, Bangladesh on the West, and India on the North-East. It has an uninterrupted 1930 km coastline on the South.

The Bumer or Burman are the dominant ethnic group consisting of 68% of total population, followed by the Shan with 10%, the Kayin 7%, the Rakhine 4%, and the other smaller ethnic groups constitute the rest of the 48,137,741 population of Myanmar. Since the demise of the civilian government of U Nu in 1962, the military-led State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) under General Ne Win is running the country.

Inefficient economic management by the military government, the U.S. led financial and economic sanctions, and poor investment climate have raised the cost of doing business causing lower economic growth and rising poverty in the country.

Although Myanmar is under heavy economic and military embargo for human rights violation and lack of respect for democracy, they have developed strong ties with China, which must be taken into consideration by Bangladesh and the international community because China, as a regional power, will play an important role in a conflict between any countries adjacent to her border. The Tatmadaw (Myanmar armed forces) has been completely revamped with the help of Chinese assistance. It has been reported by international media that, “China sold more than 22 A5M attackers and at least 50 F-7 fighters to the Myanmar air force in 1991 and 1993. Satellite photos have also shown two Chinese-made Y-8 transporters at the Yangon airport. Also, 12 Chinese Lang Chang K-8 jet trainer aircraft have been sold to the country in the past seven years.” Myanmar has raised new divisions with modern armaments and supporting units to make it one of the strongest military powers in South East Asia. They have also actively searched for new suppliers to reduce import risks and approached Israel, Ukraine, and Russia for a range of military hardware from artillery pieces, armored personnel carriers to sophisticated jet fighters. If additional manpower, new weapon systems, improved logistic backup conditions are combined with their enormous experience that they have gained through fighting a counter-insurgency war against the rebels in the last fifty years, they automatically become a greater military power than Bangladesh. But their weakness lies in their fragile economy and isolation from the international community, which I believe, put them in a disadvantageous position to achieve a desired end in a war against Bangladesh.

Strategic Scenarios

Scenario development must be undertaken to understand the nature and magnitude of future strategic challenges in Bangladesh-Myanmar relationship, and to identify the factors that need to be addressed in the strategic planning process to mitigate those challenges. Three strategic scenarios could emerge in the future in Bangladesh-Myanmar relationship:

Amicable co-existence

The existing economic, political, and strategic realities may prompt Myanmar to take a more re-conciliatory approach toward its bigger economic, politically more stable, and internationally more influential neighbor---Bangladesh. This may cause resolution of bilateral outstanding issues between Bangladesh and Myanmar and integration of their economies to pave the way for a broad-based bilateral relations between them.

Confrontation

Not being democratically elected, and being pressured by international community, the politically insecure military regime may opt for a closed-door policy to refuse to cooperate in a meaningful way which may snow-ball the existing problems leading to an inevitable confrontation.

Between Harmony and Confrontation

Isolated, sanctioned, and bullied by major Western powers, the military regime may, on the one hand, harvest a close diplomatic relation with Bangladesh to derive economic and investment opportunities, but on the other hand, may still show the same rigidity in arriving at an amicable solution to the outstanding issues.

 

[Saif]

Conflict Resolution Process

It is imperative that Bangladesh resolves all outstanding issues with Myanmar because she cannot afford not to have the warmest possible relations with the only country she has border with other than India, and because Myanmar being the gateway to South-East Asia is also important for the implementation of Bangladesh's 'look east' policy to create a 'strategic equilibrium' with her relations with India.

Strategic Goals to Attain

1. To form strategic partnership with Myanmar and to consider it an indispensable part of Bangladesh's 'look east' policy to enhance economic, diplomatic, cultural, business, and people to people contacts with all the South-East Asian nations and China​
2. To earn the confidence and trust of the Myanmarese government and its people that Bangladesh is sincere about establishing bilateral relationship based on the policy of noninterference and utmost respect for each others sovereignty​
3. To consider the Myanmarese armed forces a vital element in bilateral relations and to establish high level defense relationship with them for peace, security, and stability​
4. To maintain favorable balance of power situation with Myanmar​
5. To resolve any dispute through dialogue and to avoid the possibility of military confrontation​
6. In case a military confrontation is unavoidable, limit the scope of confrontation to minimize the loss of lives and properties​
7. In case a conflict takes the shape of a full scale war, break the will of the Myanmarese military to fight by inflicting heavy damage upon its men, machine, and economy​

Bangladesh needs to take a proactive approach to utilize the available diplomatic channels of communication to initiate dialogues with Myanmar to get a grasp of their views and to communicate ours on the issues of vital mutual interests. This, however, should not be a one-off high level meeting, but rather a series of meetings between the two nations to determine the root causes of conflict.

Root Causes of Conflict

Now let us examine the sources of bilateral irritants between Bangladesh and Myanmar that could trigger a conflict between the two neighbors:

Maritime border demarcation: Being surrounded by India and Myanmar, Bangladesh can hardly overemphasize the need to demarcate maritime boundary on just and equitable basis to assert sovereignty over her resource rich EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone) and beyond through which almost 90% of external trade is conducted. Failure in delineating maritime border may cause Bangladesh to be landlocked by neighbors and lose its strategic significance in South Asia. The recent intrusion of the Myanmarese navy into Bangladesh's maritime territory was uncalled for and contrary to the spirit of amicable coexistence. It is very unfortunate that the Myanmarese government sent naval ships inside Bangladesh's maritime boundary ignoring the fact that they are yet to demarcate their maritime border with Bangladesh and that they should not venture into exploring oil and gas in disputed water until a just and equitable solution is found in light of international maritime law. But further attempts by Myanmar to intrude into Bangladesh's maritime border may cause both the nations to get involved into expensive conflict to have deleterious impact on their economies, people, and bilateral relations.

Rohingya refugee issue: Myanmar has poor human rights record for suppressing and depriving its minority communities of basic rights and privileges and as a result of this thousands of Muslim Rohingya refugees cross into Bangladesh to escape government sponsored atrocities against them. The New York Times reported this year that “More than a quarter-million Rohingya - an ethnic Muslim minority from western Myanmar - have come here to southern Bangladesh to escape the hunger, humiliation and official brutalities in their homeland. Many have landed in a place called the Kutupalong Makeshift Camp..........Every day more Rohingya arrive at the Bangladeshi camps, stateless, sun-blasted refugees carrying their meager bundles. The newcomers, largely from Rakhine State in Myanmar, are often so traumatized that they're unable to tell aid workers what they have fled.”. Bangladesh with the help of international community is making relentless efforts to resolve this issue through diplomatic channels but the stubborn military junta is protracting the refugee issue by not responding to the calls for taking back their own citizens causing a lingering debilitating effect on Bangladesh's economy, security and social harmony. Military junta's refusal to recognize Rohingya as Myanmar's citizens and its continuous attempt to push them inside Bangladesh territory may lead to a conflict if the situation is not properly handled. The status of illegal migration and repatriation of Rohingya refugees is illustrated by the following table:

Account of Rohingya Influx and Repatriation​

Year​	1993​	1994​	1995​	1996​	1997​	1998​	1999​	2000​	2001​	2002​
Influx​	198823​	116074​	50985​	30578​	21497​	22174​	22131​	21556​	22106​	21967​
Repatriation​	46130​	85300​	66004​	23097​	10070​	106​	1128​	1323​	283​	760​

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Illegal small arms trade: Illegal small arms trade is a flourishing business along Bangladesh-Myanmar border despite all the efforts by Bangladesh Rifles to curb such activities in the border areas. If Myanmar fails to cooperate in stopping illegal arms trade in the border areas, criminals and terrorist groups may create threats to internal law and order situation of Bangladesh.

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Illegal drug trade: Because of fragile economy, self imposed isolation, and sanctions by the international community, the military junta relies heavily on poppy cultivation and illegal drug trading for revenues. Myanmar has been the second largest opium producer in the world and being situated near the notorious 'golden triangle'--a heaven for illegal drug trading--- Bangladesh faces an imminent danger and this cannot be tackled without full cooperation, which is unlikely to be forthcoming, from Myanmar.

Unfriendly NASAKA: The Myanmarese border security force known as NASAKA is a matter of concern for Bangladesh. This particular organization is involved in all sorts of human rights violation, illegal trading, killing, and whatnot. Abducting Bangladeshi woodcutters and fishermen and demanding money as ransom for their release has become a habit of NASAKA. According to Union Parishad chairman Mr. Firoz Ahmed, “"They have been attacking us frequently, firing at fishermen and beating them, and also looting their valuables. In many cases, they kidnap our fishermen and release them after taking ransoms" Unless NASAKA is turned into a professional force guided by a set of code of conduct, a border conflict may break out between Myanmar and Bangladesh because of irrational behavior of NASAKA to destroy cross border peace, stability, and tranquility.

Bangla- U.S defense relations: Bangladesh is the 7th most populous country in the world with an economy larger than the combined economies of Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri-Lanka, and Maldives, and she also is a land bridge between SAARC and ASEAN. Her solid commitments to work with the international community to fight against terrorism, to improve socio-economic condition through trade liberalization, to empower women to end gender discrimination, and to play leading role to foster regional cooperation through SAARC have profusely been appreciated by the U.S. Administration and its allies. Consequently, there has been increased cooperation between the armed forces of Bangladesh and the U.S.A. But this has been construed as a threat to Myanmar's national security by the top Myanmarese generals who have identified Bangladesh, along with Thailand, as their primary security threat[8], and I believe this is a radical shift in their security outlook which the defense planners of Bangladesh should incorporate into their own national defense strategy to respond to any future threats that may arise from within Myanmar.

Nuclear factor: Isolated, sanctioned, and pressured by the Western powers to improve human rights record and to restore democracy, Myanmar has established links with North Korea and Russia for nuclear cooperation. It is alleged that the military junta is receiving help from North Korea to develop nuclear weapons to strengthen its own position vis a vis the Western powers and to negotiate on the issues of human rights and democracy from position of strength. A nuclear Myanmar, however, could have a harmful effect on regional security and stability. The U.S secretary of state Hilary Clinton warned the world about Myanmar's suspected nuclear program by saying, "It would be destabilizing for the region. It would pose a direct threat to Burma's neighbors."[9] If Myanmar succeeds to surreptitiously acquire nuclear technology, it will change the regional balance of power situation and Bangladesh being the closest and a non nuclear neighbor will be the worst victim of this change.​

 

[Saif]

Confidence Building Measures

Bangladesh and Myanmar need to take certain actions to remove mistrust, fear, and tension through improving openness and transparency in bilateral relation so as to create a congenial atmosphere for conflict resolution. These actions are as follows:

• Advance notification of major naval activities and postponement of all sorts hydrocarbon exploration activities within the disputed maritime zone
• Establish joint border patrol to check cross-border migration, and illegal arms and drug trafficking
• Establish direct 'hot line' communication systems between foreign, defense, and home ministries of both the nations
• Promote exchange of information at all levels including media

Analysis of strategic landscape

Now let us analyze the strategic landscape to understand the potential players, their interests, the internal and external strategic environment, and the balance of power situation. In this section we will do:

• Strategic position and environment analysis
• International political situation analysis
• Balance of power situation analysis

Strategic Position and Environment Analysis

In order for Bangladesh to devise the best strategies that preserve her national interest to the fullest extent, that augment her competitive advantage vis a vis Myanmar, that eradicate the possibility of any future conflicts, and that set the foundation for a solid and lasting strategic partnership with Myanmar, she needs to compare her strategic strengths and weaknesses with that of Myanmar to determine her current competitive advantage and how much pressure she can exert on Myanmar to realize her strategic interests.

Internal Environment Analysis

Internal environment analysis will enable us to determine the strengths and weaknesses of Bangladesh and Myanmar, and how they affect the respective nation's capabilities to achieve certain strategic advantages.

Bangladesh

Strengths

The greatest strength of Bangladesh is her geographical location and prohibitively difficult terrain that has been crisscrossed by five mighty river systems. The geographical proximity makes her a natural land-bridge between South and South-East Asia, and between East and North-East India. Being located at the center of rapidly developing South-East Asia, China, and India, Bangladesh is easily one of the most strategically important countries in Asia.

Bangladesh also enjoys the natural protection of five mighty river systems, and mountainous Chittagong Hill Tracts located in South-Eastern part of the country bordering with the Arakan and Chin states of Myanamar, and Tripura and Mizoram states of India.

The first of five river systems is 292 km long Jamuna-Brahmaputra network that extends from Northern Bangladesh to its confluence with the Padma.

Divided into two networks, the Padma-Ganges is the second river system. Of the two, 258 km Ganges is the first network that extends from the Western border with India to its confluence with the Jamuna approximately 72 km West of Dhaka, and the second is the 126 km Padma network that extends from the Ganges-Jamuna confluence to Meghna river at Chandpur.

The third system, 669 km long Surma-Meghna network extends from the North-Eastern border with India to Chandpur joining the Padma.

The fourth system, the Padma-Meghna flows 145 km to the Bay of Bengal.

The fifth river system is the Karnaphuli in the South-Eastern part of Bangladesh which flows 270 km South-West through Chittagong Hill Tracts and Chittagong to empty itself into the Bay of Bengal.

Resource rich vast maritime territory which also provides a way for unimpeded communications with the rest of the world and a leverage to maintain an independent foreign policy is another source of strategic advantage for Bangladesh. The Sea bears tremendous economic significance for Bangladesh as 90% of the nation's trade is conducted through it.

Bangladesh has achieved a higher level of economic growth through trade liberalization and efficient macro-economic management to reduce poverty, to cut down unemployment, to expand industrial base in the country so as to achieve middle income country status at the soonest. A consistent average economic growth rate of 6%, large foreign exchange reserve, and a sustained growth in export earning have contributed to creating economic resiliency and sustainability in the event of future economic uncertainty.

Highly professional, disciplined, and well-trained armed forces of Bangladesh add value to national strength through protecting territorial integrity, and through aiding civil administration in nation building during peacetime. They are also used as a strategic tool to further national interest and influence world-wide through participating in U.N. peacekeeping missions in international conflict zones.

Democratization of the political system has ensured transparency, accountability, and rule of law throughout the society, which in turn have consolidated national strength and international influence.

Large population can be turned into human resource through appropriate education and training program, which will in turn strengthen national economy and security.

Weaknesses

Bangladesh can be termed as a weak democracy fraught with political violence, disunity, and corruption. Deep divisions in the society sometimes make it impossible to take decisions in vital issues based on national consensus, and that even cause a government to be dysfunctional at times.

Although Bangladesh has been successful in building a free-market, technology-driven, and investment-friendly economy, it has failed to expand its domestic market through development of rural economy, and relies heavily on foreign exports and earnings from remittance, which are highly susceptible to external influences causing uncertainties in achieving sustainable economic growth.

The primary focus of Bangladesh has always been building a self-sustaining economy so inevitably the security aspect got little attention from the policy-makers. Years of under-funding has caused serious erosion in combat capabilities of the armed forces as all of them suffer from deficiency in manpower, necessary equipment and logistic backup. The area of responsibility is too large for the current size of the armed forces and this has been the achilles heel for national security.

Myanmar

Strengths

Myanmar which is a junction of South-East and South Asia is vital for India and Bangladesh to establish economic and political links with South-East Asian nations, and it is also equally important for China to establish a permanent naval presence in the Indian Ocean to protect Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC). Myanmar's strategic geographical location is the greatest bargaining power that it can use to maximize its strategic benefit.

Myanmar has one of the largest and well-equipped armed forces in South-East Asia which is protecting national territorial integrity against external aggression, fighting nation-wide insurgency to bring about stability and harmony, and acting as a unifying force to establish national unity. It has been one of the strongest pillars of Myanmar's national strength.

Abundant natural resource is another source of national strength of Myanmar. Not only is it providing means to deal with current economic hard-ship, it is also acting as a powerful engine for future prospects.

Weaknesses

A military regime not mandated by people to run the country, and the boycott by the international community for lack of respect for democracy and human rights constitute the greatest political weaknesses of Myanmar. The isolation from global political system diminishes Myanmar's power as a nation to deal with threats to its national interest.

Sanctioned by the international community and controlled by the military regime, Myanmar's economic system can be characterized as highly centralized, inefficient, nontransparent, corrupt, and fragile. In spite of being resource-rich, autocratic and inefficient government system in the country has failed to make optimum use of abundant natural resource to build a broad-based, stable, and self-sustaining economy.

Even though increased weapons inventory, more manpower, and extended order of battle signify the growing military strength of Myanmar, zero access to Western training facilities in modern warfare, forced recruitment of child soldiers into armed forces to meet unrelenting demands for new recruits, lack of professional skills, and preoccupation with maintenance of political power have significantly restricted their military capability.

External Environment Analysis

An external environment analysis will help us understand the forces outside the region, and their facilitating and inhibiting influences on competitive advantages of Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Bangladesh

Opportunities

Peoples participation in nation-building through democratic system of government, liberalized economy, strong private sector, large pool of skilled and semi-skilled labor force, and geographical proximity to three rising economic powers, China, ASEAN, and India, have put Bangladesh in the most convenient position to emerge as an economic powerhouse and a regional commercial hub in the future. Bangladesh has already been classified as a key member of Goldman Sachs next eleven list[10] of potential major international economies. Major international corporate houses are increasingly showing their keen interest in doing business with Bangladesh, which is a sign that Bangladesh may become a major destination for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).

Robust participation in the international political system and unflinching commitment to international security may widen the scope for Bangladesh to contribute even bigger way in the U.N. Sponsored peacekeeping mission to earn international influence and prestige.

Growing economic prowess, increasing militarization of South and South-East Asia, and bigger responsibility for international security will open the door for new defense technology, research and development, and expansion of local defense industry to build a modern and self-sufficient military for the country.

Threats

Aside from the possibility of direct diplomatic, or even military confrontation with Myanmar, Bangladesh may also fail to implement her 'look east' policy which requires direct road and rail links with South-East Asia and China, and face strategic isolation if the outstanding issues are not resolved at the earliest.

Myanmar

Opportunities

Surrounded by rapidly growing economies of China, ASEAN, India and Bangladesh, and with its own vast natural resources and large population base, Myanmar is set to achieve a certain level of economic progress in the future despite government inefficiency and international economic sanctions against it.

Being an active member of Asean Regional Forum (ARF), and having close economic and security relations with China, India, and Bangladesh, Myanmar may show greater flexibility in regional politics to cancel out political pressure and security risks from major Western powers.

Myanmar's Geo-strategic location and military modernization by the neighboring nations will definitely create new opportunities for Myanmar to acquire new capability for its armed forces to maintain balance of power.

Threats

Noncompliance with the demands of the international community for faster political reform, improved human rights record, and unrestricted basic freedoms of speech, assembly and worship may heighten the risks of external interference and more isolation.

 

[Saif]

International Political Situation Analysis

A thorough analysis of international political situation with regards to relations between Bangladesh, Myanmar and major international players is absolutely necessary to understand how much support Bangladesh will get from the international community, and what specific roles these major powers will play to resolve or ameliorate a conflict situation.

China: China has a long term strategic interest in Myanmar because of latter's convenient geographical location, which is the gateway to Bay of Bengal, and huge energy reserve. Aside from installing a number of listening posts in strategically important Coco Islands, China has also heavily invested in Myanmar's sea ports to develop docking, repair, maintenance, and refueling facilities capable of catering for the needs of the Chinese navy. So, a solid strategic partnership has been built between these two neighbors for mutual benefit and interest. As a permanent member of the U.N. Security council, China has the veto power which can be used as a shield against Western pressure to discipline Myanmar's military regime. But whether or not China will use its veto power to rescue Myanmar is subject to Bangladesh's strategic value relative to Myanmar's and to the degree of the U.S. involvement in the conflict. Strategic analysts believe that China acknowledges Bangladesh's strategic significance because of her peculiar geographical location, which cuts the North Eastern region off from the rest of India, acts as a bridge between SAARC and ASEAN, and offers access to the Indian Ocean via the Bay of Bengal. The growing Chinese economic and military assistance to Bangladesh is a testament to latter's strategic significance in South Asia. So in the end, China may end up playing peace broker between Bangladesh and Myanmar to prevent a conflict, or to prevent the escalation of a conflict to ensure its neutrality and to limit the scope for Western powers to play any significant role in the conflict to protect its own strategic interest in the region.

Other UNSC members: In any conflict between Bangladesh and Myanmar, America will side with Bangladesh simply because both the nations share the same democratic values, have respect for freedom of speech and human rights, and are strong partners against terrorism to build a terror-free world for global peace and stability. On the other hand, America is one of the staunchest critics of the Myanmar's military junta for its lack of respect for human rights and democracy. Americans have already imposed economic and arms embargoes on Myanmar and have persuaded its Western allies to do the same to put pressure on the military junta to restore democracy in the country.[12] So, in a conflict situation, if Bangladesh finds its current military capability to be inadequate to achieve a desired goal and asks for help, America may play the role of a surrogate attacker to diminish Myanmar's military capability to pose a significant security threat to Bangladesh..

Britain and France, both seeking a regime change to restore democracy in Myanmar, will also join America to support Bangladesh in her fight against Myanmar's military junta and may play the role of a logistic provider.

Russia, having close relations with both Bangladesh and Myanmar, may lend its support only as a peace broker to maintain neutrality in a conflict situation.

Other players

India: The strategic compulsion to create economic and political links with South-East Asian nations, the pressing need to secure uninterrupted energy supply to meet its burgeoning energy demand, and the need to counterbalance Chinese influence in Myanmar have brought about a new realization in India that it has to improve its relations with Myanmar for its own strategic advantage. Therefore, once a staunch supporter of Myanmar's pro-democracy movement, India, for its own strategic and energy interests, has repaired its relations with the military regime and followed a policy of noninterference in the internal affairs of Myanmar. The policy shift by India has not gone unnoticed by the international observers and China Post writes, “Once a staunch and vocal Aung San Suu Kyi supporter, India began engaging Myanmar's military junta in the mid-1990s — a shift that has seen security, energy and strategic priorities override concerns over democracy and human rights........ India is eyeing oil and gas fields in Myanmar and fears losing out to China in the race for strategic space in Asia.” At the same time, the policymakers of New Delhi are well aware of their role in the independence movement of Bangladesh and her strategic significance for the security of North East India. So overtly, India may seek neutrality in a conflict between Bangladesh and Myanmar and play the role of a peace broker, but they may extend covert support to Myanmar to put Bangladesh in a disadvantageous position to force them to seek Indian support to end the conflict by giving concessions in vital outstanding issues such as maritime border demarcation as a quid-pro-quo for Indian support, and to keep extra-regional powers from interfering in the traditional sphere of influence of India.

Pakistan: Despite the bitter memories of 1971, both Bangladesh and Pakistan have moved forward and established economic, political, and defense relations based on mutual trust and benefit. Aside from religious sentiments, Pakistan acknowledges the strategic significance of Bangladesh because of latter's geographical location and shared strategic outlook. So, Pakistan may provide moral and even some logistic support to Bangladesh in the event of a conflict between Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Arab countries: Being the 3rd largest Muslim country in the world, Bangladesh is expected to get overwhelming moral and even some logistic support from the Arab nations as well.

Evaluation of Balance of Power Situation

Bangladesh needs to acquire enough power to enhance her own security and to diminish others power to prevent them from creating direct or indirect threat to her national interest. Failure to acquire substantial power will raise the threat to an unacceptable level and put Bangladesh in danger zone.

With an economy four times as big as Myanmar's and foreign exchange reserve of $20 billion, Bangladesh has the financial means to protect her economy against the burden of war expenditures, and also in spite of being smaller in size, Bangladesh military has the wherewithal to inflict heavy damage upon any invading forces from across the border to raise the cost of invasion prohibitively high. Although Myanmar, on the other hand, boasts a larger military, it's Achilles heel is its fragile economy that cannot pay for the war expenditures without hurting its financial stability.

 

[Saif]

Strategies to Follow

1. To choose and implement AH(Asian Highway)-41 route to connect to China and South-East Asian nations through Myanmar.
2. To form a joint security forum to discuss matters relating to bilateral and regional security and to consistently follow a transparent policy with regards to Bangla-U.S military cooperation to assure the military government that the existing defense relation with the U.S.A. has no anti Myanmar bias and that Bangladesh will never allow a foreign power to use her soil to harm a neighbor.
3. To increase defense cooperation between the two nations in the field of training, military exercise, and exchange of sensitive security information under a mutually agreed upon defense cooperation framework.
4. To accelerate overall military modernization process and to increase security contacts with ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and China.
5. To launch an intense diplomatic effort, both bilateral and multilateral involving China, and the U.N, to diffuse tension.
6. To use the border security force to repel sporadic border incursions and to keep the army on a stand by mode while continuing with diplomatic efforts to diffuse tension.
7. To create a naval blockade against Myanmar to take control of its commercial shipping lanes, and then use full military might in land battle to force the aggressor to retreat and give the politicians enough time to contact the international community to intervene.

Concluding Observations

As a mature and active regional player, Bangladesh should recognize the opportunities from a healthy and peaceful relation with Myanmar while remain alert at the challenges that get thrown at her because of Myanmar's political, economical, and strategic vulnerabilities. For Myanmar, Bangladesh is a country of $460 billion with an open market, liberal investment climate, modern technology, and the most cost effective route to establish economic relations with India.

For Bangladesh, Myanmar also offers the most cost effective route to connect to South-East Asia and China. The trade and military significance of such a road network is enormous for Bangladesh. The combined size of the ASEAN and

Chinese economies are even bigger than that of Japan. Bangladesh's geographical proximity to South-East Asia gives her the unique opportunity to connect two major regional forums, SAARC and ASEAN, through Myanmar to enhance inter regional economic, trade, cultural and security interactions, to transform herself into a regional commercial hub, and to contribute constructively to regional stability through participation in regional security forums such as ARF.

Strategically, Bangladesh can improve its balance of power situation with regional heavyweights by establishing relationship with them based on mutual interdependence and benefit and therefore attain more flexibility in devising policies that will not only protect her own national interest, but also affect the future strategic direction of South and South-East Asia.

So, Bangladesh should emphasize preventive diplomacy to eliminate the risks of conflict with Myanmar and assure it of Bangladesh's intentions for establishing bilateral relations based on the policy of noninterference and nonaggression.

 

[Saif]

Repatriation decision lies with Myanmar: Haas

Haas said the US will continue to be the largest donor for the humanitarian assistance of the Rohingya

www.thedailystar.net

Repatriation decision lies with Myanmar: Haas​

The final decision regarding the repatriation of Rohingyas lies with Myanmar, US Ambassador to Bangladesh Peter Haas said yesterday.

"It depends on the goodwill of Myanmar. But the fact is that the Rohingya community is now living in an inhumane situation," he said at a closing ceremony of a photo exhibition on Rohingyas organised by the International Rescue Committee in the capital's Edge Gallery.

Haas said the US will continue to be the largest donor for the humanitarian assistance of the Rohingya.

The comment comes when the civil war in Myanmar is intensifying every day, while thousands of Rohingyas, and members of other ethnic groups, are being displaced by the fighting between the Myanmar junta and Arakan Army.

Over a million Rohingyas have been sheltered in Bangladesh. Most of them fled here in 2017 following a crackdown by the Myanmar military in Rakhine state.

Despite repeated attempts, not a single Rohingya could be repatriated since then. Meanwhile, the process of repatriation has become further complicated due to the current civil war.

Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner Mizanur Rahman at a panel discussion said, "The Rohingyas are looked at negatively but many of them don't even know their history. Decades of deprivation and violation of Rohingya rights in Myanmar led to the situation today.

"We all want quick solution to this crisis."

Dhaka University Prof Saifuddin said the Rohingya crisis is not only a regional problem but a global one.

"Amid various other global conflicts, the [plight of] Rohingyas appear to be a forgotten crisis. This should be kept under global focus."​

 

[Saif]

Bangladesh versions of Vijay Mallyas!

Popular Indian stand-up comedian and television host Kapil Sharma, while appearing in the first episode of 'The Great Indian Kapil Show' on Netflix said, 'Appne Money Heist dekha hoga. Aaat dos loge lal rang ke mukhate aur dress pahen ke bank loot ne jaate. Khamaka Netflix ne ente kharcha kiya. Us

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Regional connectivity and Myanmar
MIR MOSTAFIZUR RAHAMAN
Published :​

Apr 03, 2024 22:05

Updated :​

Apr 04, 2024 21:28

Goods loaded trucks are waiting at Maungdaw border at Rakhine State in Myanmar— Collected Photo

Myanmar is a key land bridge between South Asia and the Southeast Asian regions, which have emerged as the new hotspot for world economy.

The economies of South Asia and Southeast Asia are growing and forging closer ties at a time when global situation remains turbulent due to conflicts in Ukraine and Middle East.

Actually after the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, it became amply clear that Asian economies should concentrate on domestic and regional demand to secure sustainable and inclusive growth.

At the same time, it also became evident that enhancing connectivity between these two vital regions was a must.

According to some statistics, South Asia and Southeast Asia cross-regional trade has increased 23 times from $4 billion to $90 billion in 12 years since 1990.

It was also found that Southeast Asia's share of South Asian trade rose from 6 per cent to only 10 per cent whereas South Asia's share of Southeast Asian trade doubled from about 2 per cent to 4 per cent.

The sharing of cross-regional investment and cross-regional financial flows was also low as Southeast Asia only accounted for 15 per cent of total South Asian foreign direct investment (FDI) outflows during 2009-2013 and South Asia only received 9 per cent of Southeast Asian FDI.

Hence, experts have identified tremendous potential for shared growth in these two regions, which can pave the way for greater integration through trade, investment, and financial flows.

India, the biggest economy in South Asia, is also focusing on 'Look East Policy' with the objective of enhancing cross-border trade and infrastructure investments.

Bangladesh has also initiated moves to deepen its connectivity with South East Asian countries after 90s.

Due to its geographical position, Myanmar's role is seen in ensuring improved physical connectivity and associated soft infrastructure, which are needed to foster closer economic ties between South Asia and Southeast Asia.

Myanmar is strategically located and rich in natural resources, including arable land, forests, minerals, natural gas, and freshwater and marine resources. The country with covers an area of 676,577 square kilometers is the largest in Southeast Asia.

The development of Myanmar's oil and gas reserves since the early 1990s has resulted in rapidly increasing petroleum exports. But the ongoing civil war in Myanmar emerged as a game spoiler for bridging the two regions.

Progress regarding the regional highway connecting South Asian countries like India, Bangladesh with South East Asian countries has come to a standstill as the entire Myanmar has now turned into a battlefield.

Without ending this war in Myanmar, nothing can be taken forward in terms of physical connectivity between the two regions.

Surely, it now requires intervention from the international community to ensure permanent peace in this country.

Myanmar's Asian neighbours should take proactive role in ending conflicts in Myanmar considering the importance of establishing physical connectivity between the two regions.
​

 

[Saif]

Myanmar firing halts shipping to St Martin’s, triggers food crisis

Firing from the Myanmar border has halted passenger and cargo vessels travelling from Cox's Bazar's Teknaf Upazila to St Martin's Island for six days. The suspension of services has left more than 10,000 residents of the isolated island facing a shortage of daily necessities, including food. The

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Myanmar firing halts shipping to St Martin's, triggers food crisis

Firing from the Myanmar border has halted passenger and cargo vessels travelling from Cox's Bazar's Teknaf Upazila to St Martin's Island for six days.
The suspension of services has left more than 10,000 residents of the isolated island facing a shortage of daily necessities, including food.

The island is accessible only by water, with residents depending on trawlers that navigate the Teknaf-St Martin's route to transport food products and other essential supplies, bdnews24.com reports.

Habibur Rahman, a former St Martin's union council ward member, noted those who live day-to-day on the island are suffering the most. He explained that stores are nearly out of food due to the inability of boats to operate.

"There is a shortage of vegetables, eggs, and fresh produce. Some traders are reportedly doubling their prices."

If this situation is not quickly resolved, he warned, it could exacerbate other issues like food scarcity and medical care for the island's residents.

Touhidul Islam, a student at Teknaf Government Degree College in St Martin's, was concerned. "My final year exam is scheduled for 10 tomorrow morning, but the water transport to St Martin's has been closed for several days. Missing this test would be a significant setback for me."

Abdur Rashid, president of the Saint Martin's Boat Owners Association, said: "The conflict continues within Myanmar. Bangladeshi vessels are being fired upon from Myanmar at the Naikhongdia point on the Naf River along the Teknaf-St Martin's route."

"On June 5, a boat carrying election equipment and officials returning from St Martin's was fired upon from the Myanmar border. The boat sustained damage, but fortunately, no one was injured. Then, on Saturday, another cargo trawler was shot at. Though no one was injured, seven bullets hit the trawler."

Khorshed Alam, president of the Saint Martin's Speed Boat Owners' Cooperative Association, said: "Myanmar has been firing on Bangladeshi vessels along the Teknaf-St Martin's waterway.

People are shocked to see trawlers being openly shot at and are refraining from travelling."

"Moreover, there is no alternative route to St Martin's apart from this one. Each day, more than 100 people travel on the St Martin-Teknaf's route using six to seven boats, which also transport food and daily necessities."

Akhter Kamal, chairman of the panel of Saint Martin's union council, said that the boats cross the Naikhongdia area at the end of the Naf River estuary on their way from Teknaf to Saint Martin's. This has instilled fear in people, discouraging them from making the journey.

"However, it's unclear whether the firing is being conducted by Myanmar border guards or insurgents. In recent days, two or three boats have been attacked, prompting the owners to halt boat operations."

Due to a communication breakdown, there is now a food crisis on the island, and the panel chairman hopes the government will address it promptly.

Adnan Chowdhury, the Upazila executive officer or UNO, said that trawlers and speed boats have recently been fired upon from Myanmar, resulting in the suspension of vessel movements on that route.

However, investigations are underway to determine the feasibility of an emergency route to the island via the Bay of Bengal from the Shah Pari island area, the UNO added.

Earlier on Wednesday, over 100 shots were fired at a trawler returning from Saint Martin's in Cox's Bazar with election officials and equipment.

Then on Saturday afternoon, a cargo trawler from Teknaf to St Martin's was shot at again in the Naikhongdia area of the Badar Mokam estuary of the Naf River.​

 

[Saif]

Three Rohingya killed in Cox’s Bazar camp attack

Three Rohingya refugees were killed and three others injured in an attack over supremacy in Cox’s Bazar’s Ukhia Rohingya camp. The incident occurred on Monday morning in F Block of Rohingya Camp-4 (Extension). Local police have confirmed the incident. According to locals and families

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Three Rohingya killed in Cox's Bazar camp attack
OUR CORRESPONDENT, COX'S BAZAR
Published :
Jun 10, 2024 18:20
Updated :
Jun 10, 2024 18:38

Three Rohingya refugees were killed and three others injured in an attack over supremacy in Cox's Bazar's Ukhia Rohingya camp.
The incident occurred on Monday morning in F Block of Rohingya Camp-4 (Extension).

Local police have confirmed the incident.

According to locals and families, members of the Myanmar-based Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO) severely stabbed refugee Md Ilias after shooting him around 3:45 am on Monday. He died from his injuries on the spot. Around 4:15 am, members of the Myanmar-based Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) arrived and attacked RSO supporters Md Ishak, Firoze Khan, Abdul Haq, Abdus Shukkur, and Abdul Monafek. The injured were taken to Ukhia Upazila Health Complex where doctors declared Md Ishak and Firoze Khan dead. The rest were transferred to Cox's Bazar General Hospital for further treatment.

Ukhia Police Station Officer-in-Charge (OC) Shamim Hossain said that the deceased have been taken to the morgue for autopsy and that legal steps are underway.

Commander of the 14 Armed Police Battalion Md Iqbal said the situation is now under control.​

 

[Saif]

Food crisis in Saint Martin’s as vessel movement off for 7 days

Food crisis emerges on St Martin's island as vessel movement remains suspended for 7 days, leaving 10,000 residents suffering immensely due to shots fired from Myanmar targeting Bangladeshi vessels.

en.prothomalo.com

Teknaf-Saint Martin's sea lane
Food crisis in Saint Martin's as vessel movement off for 7 days
Abdul Kuddus and Gias UddinFrom Teknaf
Updated: 13 Jun 2024, 13: 04

Movements of passenger and cargo vessels on the Teknaf and St Martin's sea lanes have been closed for the last seven days due to several incidents of shootings targeting the Bangladeshi vessels from the Naikhongdia area of the Rakhine state of Myanmar.

Although no casualties were reported, several vessels were damaged. As a result, vessel movement on the Teknaf-St Martin's sea lane has been called off.

This has led to immense sufferings of at least 10,000 residents of St Martin's island. The islanders are not able to go to Teknaf even for emergency purposes due to the closure of vessel movement. It is not possible to send daily commodities from Teknaf either. As a result, a food crisis has emerged.

Meanwhile, the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) are sending letters to the Myanmar Border Guard Police (BGP) protesting the incidents of firing bullets aiming at the Bangladeshi vessels without any reason. However, these letters aren't coming to work.

The latest incident of shooting was reported on Tuesday when 10-12 rounds of bullets were fired from Myanmar targeting Bangladeshi speed boats carrying a patient around 10:30 am. Although the bullets hit the speedboat, no passengers were harmed.

Before that, on 8 June, 30-40 rounds of bullets were fired from Myanmar towards a cargo trawler by armed Myanmar groups. Although none was harmed, the trawler was hit by seven bullets.

Speaking to Prothom Alo, St Martin's Trawler Owners Association president Abdur Rashid said the Naikhongdia area was under the control of BGP once. The Arakan Army has taken over some of the border outposts recently.

On 5 June, a trawler carrying election officials and equipment was returning to Teknaf from the island. As soon as it reached the Bodormokam area of the Naf river in the evening, fires were shot targeting the vessel from the Naikhongdia area in Myanmar.

Upazila assistant commissioner (land) Syed Shafkat Ali and other government officials on election duty were on the trawler at the time. Luckily they were not shot.

St Martin's island union parishad (UP) chairman and Awami League leader Mujibur Rahman said vessel movement along the Teknaf-Saint Martin sea lane was cancelled due to several incidents of firing from Naikhongdia. As a result, it has become impossible to supply daily commodities as well as rice for the poor under the Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF) programme.

The sufferings of the 10,000 people on the island will further increase unless the firing from the across the border doesn't stop. It is necessary to further intensify the patrol of the BGB and Bangladesh Coast Guard in the Bodormokam area to normalise vessel movement in the area, he added.

Teknaf-2 BGB battalion captain Lieutenant Colonel Md. Mahiuddin Ahmed said the BGB sent letters to the BGP protesting strongly over the incidents of firing in recent times. However, there has been no outcome.

Teknaf upzila nirbahi officer (UNO) Md Adnan Chowdhury said, "It's not certain as to who are behind these incidents of firing from Myanmar, the BGP or the Arakan Army. Vessel movement along the Teknaf-St Martin's Island naval route has been called off until the situation improves."

Food crisis and sufferings

The main market of St Martin's island is in the Jetty Ghat area on the eastern part of the island. Speaking to the residents of the islands, it has been learned that most of the shops on the island do not have any stock of daily commodities. Although there are vegetables, flour, edible oil and fuel in some of the shops, the prices are very high. Per piece egg were being sold at Tk 20 and the price of per kg potato soared to Tk 90 on Wednesday in a shop on the northern side of the island.

To read the rest of the news, please click on the link above.
​

 

[Saif]

St Martin’s Island get food, essentials after 9 days

The tourist ship Baro Awlia left a Teknaf jetty this afternoon ferrying the goods, to ease the ongoing food crisis on the island due to the conflict in Myanmar

www.thedailystar.net

St Martin's Island get food, essentials after 9 days

File photo of a tourist ship travelling to St Martin's Island from Teknaf via the Naf river. Photo: Star

The Cox's Bazar district administration has sent food and other daily essentials for about one month to St Martin's Island through a tourist ship after nine days.

The tourist ship Baro Awlia left a Cox's Bazar BIWTA jetty this afternoon ferrying the goods, to ease the ongoing food crisis on the island due to the conflict in Myanmar, reports our Cox's Bazar staff correspondent quoting Yamin Hossain, additional district magistrate.

Over the last few days, several trawlers, tourist ships, and speedboats had been fired upon from the Myanmar side of the border.

Some 150 people from St Martin's, who were stranded in Teknaf and Cox's Bazar, also travelled home on the ship after at least nine days.

The move comes as the island was almost out of food and other supplies after the suspension of vessel movement on the usual route via the Naf river.

St Martin's Island, which can only be accessed by boats, hasn't received regular supplies since June 6.

The government sent some foodstuff, and traders took food items, including rice, onion, potato, fruits and other essentials on the ship which would last them for at least one month, the additional district magistrate added.

Rehena Akhter, a resident of Konarpara on the Island, said she came to Cox's Bazar along with her husband and their three-year-old daughter to take a tour and also visit the doctor 10 days ago.

"We wanted to return home yesterday [Thursday] on a fishing trawler from Teknaf, but dared not to after witnessing the rough sea," she said.

"We were staying at a hotel and had to spend a lot of money as our brief trip was prolonged," she added.

Luna Akhter, a second-year honours student of Cox's Bazar Government College, also a resident of the island, said the government could have provided sea trucks for safe transportation of St Martin's residents as the only route to the island was closed off due to the conflict in Myanmar.

Meanwhile, the sounds of mortar shells and grenade explosions across the border in Myanmar's Rakhine state rocked the bordering areas of Teknaf last night till early morning.

Explosions could be heard from 7:00pm Thursday to 2:00am today. However, there were explosions during the day till Friday evening, locals said.

Nevertheless, panic gripped locals as a Myanmar warship was spotted in the Badarmokam area near Shahporir Dwip on the Teknaf-Saint Martin waterway, on Naf river.

Teknaf Upazila Nirbahi Officer (UNO) Adnan Chowdhury confirmed that the ship belonged to Myanmar.

Residents of St Martin's were also panicking after noticing three Myanmar warships near the island.

Mohammad Hashem, a resident of Dailpara of St Martin's Island, said he had never seen Myanmar's warships placed so close to the island before.

"From these ships, the Myanmar troops fight with the Arakan Army. We hear the sounds of explosions. We are very scared," he said.​

 

[Saif]

If Myanmar firing hits any Bangladeshi, response will be given: Quader

Awami League (AL) General Secretary and Road Transport and Bridges Minister Obaidul Quader on Saturday said that efforts are being made to resolve the issue of Myanmar’s firing reaching Saint Martin’s Island through discussions with that country. “It will be regretful if we suffe

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

If Myanmar firing hits any Bangladeshi, response will be given: Quader
Published :
Jun 15, 2024 17:23
Updated :
Jun 15, 2024 18:46

Awami League (AL) General Secretary and Road Transport and Bridges Minister Obaidul Quader on Saturday said that efforts are being made to resolve the issue of Myanmar's firing reaching Saint Martin's Island through discussions with that country.

"It will be regretful if we suffer because of the internal violence and crisis in Myanmar. Efforts are going on and Bangladesh will continue to seek resolution through discussions, avoiding war. However, if anyone (Bangladeshi) becomes a victim, a response will be given," he said.

He said these at a press briefing at the Awami League president's office in Dhaka's Dhanmondi, reports BSS.

Quader said, "We are ready. We won't attack. But we will not spare if they attack. Resistance will be built if we are attacked. We have no antagonism with Myanmar. The door of discussion is open."

He said, "Our neighboring country Myanmar has some internal crises. They have 54 ethnic groups. There are conflicts among themselves. It will be very unfortunate if we suffer from their internal crisis. There is a military government there. We are trying to solve it through discussions and will continue to do so avoiding war. However, if we are attacked, we will respond to that attack. There is no reason to underestimate us. We are ready."

Referring to the Rohingya crisis that has burdened Bangladesh, the AL leader said, "Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina generously opened the borders for humanitarian reasons. For this, she is called the 'Mother of Humanity'. Now, countries and organizations around the world praise us. We need not lip service of big countries in this regard."

"The amount of assistance for Rohingyas has decreased significantly. We are worried about the ongoing economic crisis. The additional burden of 10-12 lakh Rohingyas is creating pressure," he added.

About traffic congestion on roads during Eid journey, the minister said, although there is traffic congestion in some places, there was no need to wait for hours anywhere.

Over BNP's claim that the government will fall any moment, the AL general secretary said, "This is their daydream. Government changes either through a popular uprising or an election. The election was held on January 7, 2024. The idea that the government will fall in a popular uprising is laughable."

Awami League Joint General Secretary A F M Bahauddin Nasim, Organizational Secretary B M Mozammel Haque, Sujit Roy Nandi, Cultural Affairs Secretary Ashim Kumar Ukil and Deputy Publicity Secretary Syed Abdul Awal Shamim, among others, were present.​

 

[Saif]

Saint Martin's situation certainly calls for counter response

Arakan Army thats Bangladesh is arming the Rohingya, ARSA and RSO, and sending them to Arakan. The Bangladesh government has not verified whether these claims are true or not

en.prothomalo.com

Saint Martin's situation certainly calls for counter response
M Sakhawat Hossain
Published: 16 Jun 2024, 11: 57

A warship of Myanmar Navy was anchored in Badar Mokam area of Shah Porir Dwip on the Teknaf-Saint Martin's waterways for two days.Prothom Alo

The Saint Martin's Island may not be a very important island in a strategic sense. It is a small coral island. It is not very safe, security-wise. To the west of the river Naf is Bangladesh and to the east, Myanmar. If we look at the Myanmar coastline, we will see that it goes down from Shahpori Island and proceeds south much like a funnel. Bangladesh maritime territory is used to reach Saint Martin's Island, and some parts of the route are very close to Myanmar.

A civil war prevails in the Rakhine region. The Arakan Army has taken over 17 to 18 towns in the northern part of Rakhine already. The fight with the Myanmar army is basically now taking place in Maungdu. The Arakan Army has surrounded this town. The town lies along the border with Bangladesh.

There are two posts of the Myanmar Border Guard Police near the border with Bangladesh. As far as has been learnt, both the posts are now under control of the Arakan Army. If we take a look at the Rakhine map, we will see that as a result of the Arakan Army taking over these two posts, the road leading to Sittwe has been completely cut off. And with Rathidaung being taken over too, the road linking Maungdu with Yangon had also been more or less cut off.

There is fear that it is the Arakan Army's firing that can be directed towards our trawlers and speedboats. That is because they feel that the Bangladesh authorities are arming the Rohingya, ARSA and RSO, and sending them to Arakan. The Bangladesh government has made no statement to verify whether these claims are true or not.

The matter remains that the Arakan Army do not trust the Rohingya. They have all sorts of suspicions particularly about the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO) and the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA). It has been learnt that RSA and ARSA are being equipped with arms and are fighting against the Arakan Army on behalf of the Myanmar army, Tatmadaw. It has been learnt that after the fall of Buthidaung, around 30,000 to 40,000 Rohingyas there have fled to the hills. The homes of the Rohingyas there have been burnt to the ground. The Arakan Army, however, denied that they have set fire to the Rohingya homes. They say that these were destroyed by the Myanmar air force shelling.

We have seen in the news media that a Myanmar gunboat of naval ship was positioned in the Naf River. The question is whether they remained within their maritime territory. If they were within their own territory, then we cannot take any measures legally.

Presumably the Myanmar vessel came to the river Naf to launch a counter attack on the Arakan Army. The objective was to thwart the fall of Maungdu. After all, if Maungdu falls into Arakan Army's hands, the fall of Sittwe will be imminent. That also means that the headquarters of the army in North Rakhine will also fall and the entire North Rakhine will be in Arakan Army's control. Under these circumstances, as all roads have been obstructed, the Tatmadaw may have opted now to use the navy.

If Maungdu falls, that will be a serious blow to Tatmadaw. There are around 100,000 Rohingya there. They are being used as human shields. If the Arakan Army takes over Maungdu, the fate of the Rohingya will be uncertain again. The Rohingya do not have the strength to resist the Arakan Army or to negotiate with them and reach an understanding.

Bangladesh is walking along a tightrope. Generally speaking, the people feel that diplomatic letters or such steps won't do the trick. No matter to how limited a degree, we must come up with a counter response.

To read the rest of the news, please click on the link above.​

 

[Saif]

Frustration grows as Rohingya youths face grim reality

Over half a million Rohingya children are growing up in Bangladesh camps amid frustration, without hope for the future, and with fears of being drawn into extremism...

www.newagebd.net

Frustration grows as Rohingya youths face grim reality
Azad Majumder . back from Cox's Bazar 20 June, 2024, 00:51

Over half a million Rohingya children are growing up in Bangladesh camps amid frustration, without hope for the future, and with fears of being drawn into extremism, drug trade, and human trafficking.

Bangladesh houses 979,306 Rohingyas in 33 camps in Cox's Bazar and Bhasan Char Island as of April 30, 2024, according to UN agencies, though the Bangladesh government estimates the figure to be close to 1.2 million.

About 52 per cent of the Rohingyas are children. Many of them were born in Bangladesh camps after the mass exodus from Myanmar in 2017.

According to the UN children's agency UNICEF, within Cox's Bazar camps, there are 3,565 learning centres supported by education sector partners, including 3,056 learning centres supported by itself.

There are also 31 cross-sectoral shared spaces used for education and 2,233 community-based learning facilities.

UNICEF country representative Sheldon Yett said that through these learning centres, they could provide formal education and alternative learning, based on the Myanmar curriculum to roughly 260,000 children.

'We aim to further ensure that children have the desirable learning levels and skills,' Yett told New Age.

UNICEF data, however, suggests that many Rohingya children, particularly those aged between 3-5 years and 15–18 years, are still out of school.

With no tertiary-level education permitted in the camp, most of the Rohingya students end their education after Class X.

For the 2024-2025 academic year starting in early August, Class XI will be offered, UNICEF said, adding that Class XII will be offered next year.

Sixteen-year-old Rohingya boy Salim Ullah, who was passing idle time at a community centre jointly run by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and Bangladeshi non-profit BRAC inside Camp-4 on June 9, said that he was aiming to be a teacher after completing his education.

'I used to go to school here for the past few years. But now I mostly learn from private teachers,' said Salim Ullah.

'I want to be a teacher. If it is not possible, I want to go to Malaysia or any other country to support my family,' Salim Ullah, accompanied by a few other Rohingya children of his age, said.

Ali Zohar, who is a bit older than Salim, said that they spent most of their time playing carom at the recreational facilities because there was not much else to do.

'We always live in fear as we see people often being kidnapped or killed here,' said Zohar.

Sometimes young children also join them in recreational facilities with little or no playing opportunities for them in open spaces.

Eight-year-old Mohammad Faisal told New Age that he had no memory of Myanmar and was not sure if he would ever go back to the country.

'I only hear stories of Myanmar from my parents. But I don't know what it looks like,' said Faisal.

Against the backdrop, Rohingyas will observe World Refugee Day in camps with some activities supported by UNHCR and other humanitarian agencies.

UNHCR and BRAC officials said that they run several such recreational facilities inside the camps to keep Rohingya youths and adults engaged in positive activities so that they could not be distracted by other elements present in the camp.

In spite of the UN agency and its local partners' efforts, the Rohingyas' frustration at being forced to live in a camp on the harsh plain and hillside is evident in every corner of the camp, with most adults and children simply strolling aimlessly.

Rohingya parents mostly worry about their children due to the rising crime in the camp.

According to the Rapid Action Battalion, 64 Rohingyas were killed in camps in 2023, and 20 were killed until the first week of June 2024.

To read the rest of the news, please click on the link above.​

 

[Saif]

Are security threats emerging over Saint Martin's?

Incidents centering Saint Martin's are drawing attention because of two reasons. One is the consecutive successes of the Arakan Army. The other is statements made by prime minister Sheikh Hasina and a few others

en.prothomalo.com

Are security threats emerging over Saint Martin's?

After the onset of the coordinated operations of Myanmar's rebel groups, the spillover at the border poses as a security threat to Bangladesh. Is anything happening behind the scenes centering Saint Martin's Islam? Ali Riaz searches for answers
Ali Riaz
Published: 21 Jun 2024, 08: 27

Bangladesh's news media regularly reports on the developments along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border and in the Arakan state. Last week a new dimension was added to the prevailing circumstances when a Myanmar warship was sighted very close to Bangladesh's Saint Martin's Island. Movement of vessels travelling by the river Naf en route Saint Martin's was halted due to incessant firing from Myanmar. Food shortage emerged in Saint Martin's and fishermen were too fearful to venture out with their boats. All this was very visible and Bangladesh's security concerns can in no way be dismissively brushed aside.

Bangladesh's government says that they are trying to resolve the issue diplomatically. The general secretary of the ruling party, Obaidul Quader, said, "Efforts will continue to be made to avoid war and resolve the issue by means of talks. But if any one of our people are injured, the attack will be given due reply. (Prothom Alo, 15 June 2024).

Bangladesh army chief SM Shafiuddin Ahmed said, "Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) and the Coast Guard is monitoring the violence along the Myanmar border. Bangladesh army is on alert in this regard too. They will take due measures if the situation deteriorates" (Amader Shomoy, 15 June 2024).

Saint Martin's in focus

The incidents centering Saint Martin's Island are drawing more attention than ever before because of two reasons. One is the consecutive successes of the rebel Arakan Army. The other is certain statements made by Bangladesh's prime minister Sheikh Hasina and a few other politicians some time mid last year regarding Saint Martin's Island.

Over the past few months the Arakan Army has taken over vast areas of Arakan territory. If they continue in their successes, they will soon gain control of the state capital Sittwe. To continue forging ahead, they will need to ensure that the Myanmar army cannot advance along the river Naf. From the measures being taken by the Arakan army it is evident that they do not consider Rohingya to be their supporters. They do not want the Rohingya armed groups to cross the Naf, enter Arakan and take position against them. And so they are staging all sorts of attacks on vessels moving down the river Naf to let their presence be known.

Meanwhile, the Myanmar army probably wants to tackle both the presence of the Arakan Army on the river Naf and the possible incursion of Rohingya from Bangladesh. And that is why over the past few weeks Myanmar warships have been visible. It cannot be said that these warships have been positioned there simply to make their presence felt. After all, in the past Myanmar's special attention and interest in Saint Martin's has been marked.

To be continued..................​

 

[Saif]

Myanmar's stance on Saint Martin's
We can go back a bit in order to discern Myanmar's stance on Saint Martin's Island. In 2018 Myanmar claimed that this was their island. In October that year, the website of Myanmar's population affair's ministry and another government website of the Myanmar Information Management Unit, depicted Saint Martin's as a part of Myanmar in their map. Myanmar's population affair's ministry website even gave a figure of the total number of Saint Martin's residents, taking that as part of Myanmar's population.

The Bangladesh government summoned the Myanmar ambassador in Dhaka and issued a note of protest, after which these details were removed, though for long they kept the colour of Saint Martin's the same as the rest of Myanmar on the map (The Wire, 14 October 2018). This effort was made seven years after the maritime boundary dispute with Myanmar was resolved in 2011 by means of the ITLOS ruling. That means even after accepting the international tribunal's ruling on the maritime boundary, they still had their eyes on Saint Martin's.

There could be another explanation. Saint Martin's Island may be an excuse to instigate armed conflict with Bangladesh. Such a situation had arisen in November 2008. Myanmar at the time had sent the South Korean company, Daewoo, 50 nautical miles southwest of Saint Martin's Island to explore for oil and gas. The naval forces of both sides took up a confrontational stance. The matter was finally diffused through diplomatic talks. That incident was before the ITLOS ruling on the maritime boundary. But with there being no difference in the incidents before and order the maritime boundary was demarcated, it seems that Myanmar hasn't changed it viewpoint regarding Saint Martin's.

Can Myanmar create such a situation where conflict with Bangladesh will be inevitable? This question can be raised because in February this year, the director general of RAB, M Khurshid Hossain, had said Myanmar from a long time back had been wanting to engage in war with Bangladesh (Prothom Alo, 24 February 2024). He had said that Myanmar was going out of its way to instigate conflict.

Certain security experts have commented that the civil war in Myanmar, particularly in Arakan, will not spill over into Bangladesh (Voice of America, 7 February 2024). But ever since the rebels groups started their comprehensive 'Operation 1027' from last October, this had spilled over in various ways into Bangladesh territory, creating a security threat for Bangladesh.

To be continued...............​

 

[Saif]

Is Saint Martin an excuse or an objective?

The second reason why attention should be paid to Saint Martin's Island is the statements made by Bangladesh's politicians in the domestic political scene. It began in June last year when Jashod leader Hasanun Huq Inu and Workers Party leader Rashed Khan Menon, allies of the government, said in parliament that the pressure from the US for free and fair election actually had nothing to do with the election, but was aimed at building a base on Saint Martin's. Menon said, "The US wants Saint Martin's" (Banik Barta, 15 June 2023). Inu said, "Why is America suddenly so interest? Do they want democracy? Or Saint Martin's?" (Kaler Kantha, 19 June 2023). Prime minister Sheikh Hasina at a press briefing said, "It's not difficult to remain in power by leasing Saint Martin's Island out" Prothom Alo, 21 June 2023).

Prime minister Sheikh Hasina said that the opposition BNP wanted to sell or lease Saint Martin's out so that they can come to power. In response to this state, the spokesperson of the US embassy in Dhaka Bryan Schiller said the US respects Bangladesh's sovereignty and that includes Saint Martin's. A similar statement was made by the US state department spokesperson Matthew Miller in response to a question posed by journalist Mushfique Fazal Ansarey. He said that the US had never spoken about taking over Saint Martin's Island (Prothom Alo, 28 June 2023).

Since the 1980's politicians have been talking about the US wanting to set up a base on Saint Martin's Island, but the US had also rejected such speculations. The US ambassador in Dhaka at the time, Mary Ann Peters at the time, on 2 July 2003 had said at a discussion held at the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS), the US has no plan, need or desire to establish a military base in Saint Martin's Islam, Chattogram or anywhere in Bangladesh.

To be continued............​

 

[Saif]

Even so, certain politicians of Bangladesh now and then make such remarks and the India media does so too. Back in 2012, when the US secretary of state at the time Hillary Clinton visited Bangladesh, the Indian Times Group's TV channel 'Time Now' in May claimed in a report aired around the end of May that the US wants to set up a military base in the Bay of Bengal to contain China's growing influence in the region, and this is a matter of concern for India. It was also said that the US wants a naval base in Chattogram.

Without any form of evidence, it was claimed that during her Bangladesh trip, Hillary Clinton had discussed the matter with Bangladesh officials. This comment was made at a discussion. Present at the discussion, the US state department spokesperson Victoria Nuland rejected the claim. Even so, immediately after this Rashed Khan Menon raised the issue in Bangladesh's parliament. The foreign minister at the time, Dipu Moni, said that she had no such conversation with Hillary (bdnews24.com, 1 June 2012).

The India media went as far as to say that the US was wanting this base for their Seventh Fleet. Based on that report, the Bangladesh foreign ministry issued a statement that this report was baseless. The US embassy also refuted the claim (The Daily Star, 2 June 2012). Interestingly, those claiming that a country wants to take lease or ownership of Saint Martin's Island, are not offering any tangible evidence.

The editorial of New Age on 23 June said that "Citizens need to know whether the United States has, in fact, sought to lay its hands on the island in the Bay of Bengal that constitutes the territory of Bangladesh orally or in writing. Who made the offer? To whom? When? Where? The government owes the citizens a statement, notifying and giving clarification on all such issues regarding Saint Martin's Island."

From the 1980's Bangladesh's military and security analysts have been saying that because of its size, shape, location and formation, Saint Martin's is not suitable for any sort of base to be set up there (Commodore Kazi Imdadul Huq, Controversy Surrounding the Alleged Lease of Saint martin's Island, The Security, 6 August 2023). The statement of the security analysts regarding the island is clear, "Saint Martin's Island is not that important in a strategic sense. It is a very small coral island. From a security angle too, the island is not very safe" (M Sakhawat Hossain, Prothom Alo, 16 June 2024).

Despite all of this when a section of Bangladesh's politicians, the India media and some Indian analysts raise questions about the US taking lease of Saint Martin's Island or building a base for the Seventh Fleet in Chattogram, it can't just be brushed off any cursory comments or anti-American statements. Questions can be asked as to whether such discussions concerning the tensions of Saint Martin's are indicative of some other sort of plot or move regarding the island's security. The objective may be to ease the path for some other outside power's direct or indirect presence in Bangladesh's maritime territory ostensibly for security reasons. It is imperative to ensure that the situation does not take such a turn,

* Ali Riaz is distinguished professor of the Department of Politics and Government at the Illinois State University in the US, nonresident senior fellow of the Atlantic Council, and president of the American Institute of Bangladesh Studies.​

 

[Saif]

Can Myanmar make a nuclear bomb?

Myanmar's alleged uranium trade raises concerns over nuclear bomb ambitions and rebel involvement, as reports suggest uranium smuggling by rebel groups and mafia connections.

en.prothomalo.com

Can Myanmar make a nuclear bomb?
Altaf Parvez
Published: 18 Jun 2024, 20: 35

It is being reported in the foreign media that uranium is being traded in Myanmar AFP

Neighbouring countries have no end of concern over Myanmar. Tension rises further if news is heard of uranium, an element used to make nuclear weapons, is being traded in Myanmar. This is happening currently. It is being reported in the foreign media that uranium is being traded in Myanmar. The question is, whether the matter is limited to trade only or they have any other programme as a country in this regard?

Old buzz--new tension

Ahead of recent newspaper reports, it was published that there are uranium mines in several places including the Shan state. They also get uranium as a by-product of gold mines. As a mineral resource, uranium has a demand worldwide as it is used in nuclear bombs.

Myanmar's Shan state is a rebel dominated area. In the area where it is said there is a uranium mine that is dominated by the 'Restoration Council of Shan State'. In the outside world, they are known as 'RCSS'. The name of its arms wing is Shan State Army-South. Its leader is Yawd Serk--a famous rebel leader.

The question is, how refined uranium is being found in Myanmar amid this uncertainty? Even of the matter of Myanmar creating a nuclear bomb is written off as a distant dream, the administration there has become weak due to the civil war raging there. In such circumstances, a subversive syndicate for an element like uranium is certain a matter of grave concern for countries in the neighbourhood.

The rise of Yawd Serk is from Golden Triangle's godfather Khun Sa's warrior society. On one hand he is one of the main characters of narcotics trade and Shan nationalism.

Name of Yawd Serk is being mentioned in the reports of uranium smuggling in Myanmar. It is being said he and his party RCSS gave responsibility to 'yakuza' mafia to sell uranium and collect modern arms including missiles.

US intelligence spent four years and identified as a fake Iranian general and were able to contact Takeshi Ebisawa of the syndicate in Thailand. The matter was leaked in this way. Ebisawa along with several of his associates are in custody of America.

Questions have naturally been raised over the veracity of these incidents. Questions have especially been raised about adding the yakuza of Japan to these incidents. Although these people are called terrorist mafia openly, the Japanese have a secret admiration for them. The administration in Japan also respects yakuzas for their nationalistic character.

Although they are mafia, they think they have a responsibility to look after the interests of Japan across Asia.

Yakuzas naturally don't view the West in a positive light. The West also criticises them strongly. However, much credible information of uranium smuggling has come from the US. They said the samples of uranium the Washington agents collected from the Japanese syndicate are suitable for making nuclear bombs.

Information published in 'Frontier Myanmar' says in connection with Yawd Serk, Ebisawa has 2000 kg Thorium-232 and 100 kg U-308 (Triuranium octaoxide) of Shan. With the help of Thai police, the US has examined samples of these in their labs.
​

To be continued..................

 

[Saif]

Tension multidimensional

If the speculations of uranium trade are true, there are two reasons for alarm. First, the government is not controlling all the mine areas. Some uranium mines are under the control of rebels- the rebels who are desperate for funds. As a commodity uranium would not be an unnatural source of funds for them. Also, there is a reason for tension over the mines controlled by the government as the military government is not transparent in its activities, and they are also trying to overcome the economic crisis by all means. Yawd Serk, meanwhile, denied his involvement. He has said he doesn't know what uranium is.

'Frontier Myanmar' in a report last April said uranium of Shan province seized from Japanese yakuzas was refined at the primary level. The question is, where did this refinery take place? Is there that technology inside Myanmar?

Earlier dreams of nuclear bombs

It was heard many times in the past that Myanmar has a 'dream' to make a nuclear bomb. The country, which has uranium, has an advantage for this aspiration. Myanmar's armed forces Tatmadaw once had an 'atomic unit'. Besides, it is heard that North Korea and Russia have cooperation in this regard. But there was a question over the credibility of these activities of the country.

Moreover, during the rule of Aung San Su Kiy, Myanmar joined an international initiative to stop the test of nuclear bombs. In the face of global boycott in October 2022, Russia declared to establish a nuclear power plant for 'peaceful necessity' Recently, there is news, Bamar army officers have taken training in Moscow and some of them are studying this technology. In such a backdrop, the recent news of the uranium trade has spread tension all around.

News for the first time was published in 2004 that the US maintained strong vigilance over Myanmar for making nuclear bombs. Washington suspects that North Korea may provide cooperation with Bamar generals in this programme.

In November 2008, doubt intensified as a 17-member team led by Myanmar's General Soe Win visited Pyongyang and a location where North Korea is believed to have stored their nuclear arms in a valley. In 2010, a general of Tatmadaw first admitted they were trying to get this technology from North Korea.

Meanwhile, the Myanmar government in a statement said they have no intention to make nuclear bombs, but they have the right to develop this technology for 'peaceful necessity'.

After this statement, the doubt has not decreased. At least, the incident of identifying the Japanese syndicate proves that the US continues its surveillance.

However, nothing can be said finally about the mystery of nuclear power in Myanmar. The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) is a famous organisation to resolve any tension on nuclear security. This organisation in an investigation has said they have not found any proof that Myanmar has a project for making nuclear arms. This does not mean that Myanmar does not have such a type of project. In particular, the country's relation with North Korea intensifies the suspicion.

The question is, how refined uranium is being found in Myanmar amid this uncertainty? Even of the matter of Myanmar creating a nuclear bomb is written off as a distant dream, the administration there has become weak due to the civil war raging there. In such circumstances, a subversive syndicate for an element like uranium is certain a matter of grave concern for countries in the neighbourhood.

* Altaf Parvez is a researcher on history.​

 

[Saif]

Taking provocations from Rakhine coast seriously

The tiny St. Martinn's Island of Bangladesh has again been in the news, but for the wrong reason. Since the first week of this month, plying of water transports between the mainland and the island has repeatedly come under fire from Myanmar's Rakhine coast, which is about eight&nb

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Taking provocations from Rakhine coast seriously
SYED FATTAHUL ALIM
Published :
Jun 23, 2024 22:01
Updated :
Jun 23, 2024 22:01

The tiny St. Martinn's Island of Bangladesh has again been in the news, but for the wrong reason. Since the first week of this month, plying of water transports between the mainland and the island has repeatedly come under fire from Myanmar's Rakhine coast, which is about eight kilometres away from the island. The residents and visitors to the island, who are totally dependent on the mainland for the supply of food and other necessities,were as a result in a state of great fear and uncertainties for more than a week. As the usual communication between Teknaf (an upazila of Cox's Bazar under which the island is a Union Parishad) and the St. Martin's via the Naf river became risky due to occasional gunfire from the Rakhine State of Myanmar, the government at a stage had to use the sea route from Cox's Bazar to reach food and other supplies to the island. It is unfortunate that the St. Martin's Island, an integral part of sovereign Bangladesh remained cut off from the mainland for so many days to the utter dismay and suffering of the islanders! Whoever might have been behind the firings, the Myanmar government forces or the members of Arakan Army (AA), the Rakhine State-based ethnic armed organization (EAO), an immediate response from the Bangladesh side was urgently expected to put a stop to such illegal activities within Bangladesh's territorial waters. Notably, since October last year, the fighting between the AA, two other EAOs and the forces of military junta in Naypyidaw erupted in the northern part of Myanmar. As the fighting had been taking place quite close to the Bangladesh border, the impact of the conflict occasionally spilled over into Bangladesh territory. Artillery shells falling on Bangladesh territory causing injuries and even death to villagers on this side of the border, instances of violation of Bangladesh's airspace by Myanmar junta's air force were frequent. Incidents of Myanmar's Border Guard Police (BGP) personnel, injured or otherwise, fleeing to Bangladesh for shelter have been taking place from time to time. The local authorities in Bangladesh have been generous enough to provide them shelter and arrange for treatment of the wounded followed by their subsequent repatriation home. Such acts of generosity and humanity were never reciprocated by the Myanmar side.

So, there is no scope of taking the recent firings from the other side of Bangladesh-Myanmar border that caused serious dislocation of ferry service between mainland and the St. Martin's Island lightly. The instances of gunfire do not appear to have been aimless since on June 5 the gunfire (from that Rakhine coast) that hit the water transport carrying Bangladesh's Election Commission officials and their equipment was to all intents and purposes deliberate. Later a vessel carrying supplies to the island from Teknaf was fired upon, forcing local authorities to suspend ferry service between Teknaf and the island via Naf River temporarily. Similar firings continued to target any vessel found crossing the waterway of Naf river including a speed boat on June 11.

To read the rest of the news, please click on the link above.​

 

[Saif]

Endeavours for transition to green electric energy

Bangladesh has been working to increase the use of renewable energy in its energy mix. State Minister for the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Nasrul Hamid, MP considers that Bangladesh needs coordinated initiatives and major investment to make green energy transition. He confirms th

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Should we think differently about St Martin?
HASNAT ABDUL HYE
Published :
Jun 25, 2024 21:32
Updated :
Jun 25, 2024 21:32

Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB) personnel get off from a civilian vessel to begin their deployment on St Martin's Island on April 7, 2019 Photo : Collected Photo


My visit to St. Martin in 1976 as the Deputy Commissioner was reportedly the first ever by a senior government officer in the memory of the islanders. Not having even the status of a ward of an union porishad, the island was the very epitome of being an administrative and political backwater. With a population of little over 1800 in 1976, St. Martin did not qualify to have the status of a local government unit and therefore was beyond the pale of the administrative network. The only presence of the government was a platoon of erstwhile BDR which had no physical infrastructure of their own and per force availed of the space available adjacent to the only mosque in the island. Their duty was ostensibly the prevention of smuggling in the Bay of Bengal, a goal belied by their number, housing and transport facilities. With no economic and strategic importance, St Martin suffered the benign neglect of successive governments in stoic resignation

Fast forward to the start of the third millennium. St Martin with a population of over seven thousand became a tourist attraction. After about a quarter century, St Martin is now a tourist hotspot. For holiday makers it became a favourite go-to place by the turn of the century, what with its wind-swept landscape dotted with tall coconut trees and corals under water. Besides, there was the thrill of travelling in the blue water of sea that became high waves, tossing and turning boats. The island also attracted visitors who, shunning the sybaritic pleasures, went for exploration of the mystery in sands and under water flora and fauna. Before long, the island was dotted with hotels and rest houses of all shapes and sizes. It also attracted those who were keen to cash in on its new found popularity as a holiday destination and bought land to set up resorts.

St Martin assumed a new status of importance with the competing claims of Bangladesh and Myanmar over territorial limits in the Bay of Bengal. The potentials of finding oil and gas in the Bay made ownership and sovereignty over the Bay of great importance. The UN court that adjudicated the dispute over the maritime boundary took St Martin as the base for delimiting the maritime border between the two countries. According to observers, Bangladesh got more than 128,600 nautical miles of the Bay because of its ownership of St Martin. It may be the tipping point that made Myanmar look at St Martin with a jaundiced eye. In 2018 the ministry of population of Myanmar put up a map in their website showing St Martin within their territorial limits. After protest by Bangladesh foreign ministry the map was removed. But there are enough indications that Myanmar has not given up its designs to sway over as much of the Bay as would satisfy its policy of aggrandisement. Its naval ships were seen last year within the territorial waters of Bangladesh near St Martin. This encroachment was stopped only after formal protest was made. Myanmar was clearly and literally testing waters to see if the government of Bangladesh would react strongly. Then there was the incident of oil and gas exploration by a South Korean company Daewoo near St Martin which saw the two countries at eye-to-eye confrontation because of the trespass by Myanmar.

Very lately, in the first week of June, Bangladeshi boats and ships carrying passengers from Teknaf to St Martin were fired at by Myanmar armed forces, bringing transport between the mainland and the island to a standstill. Soon after this three ships of Myanmar navy were seen off the coast of St Martin scaring the residents of the island. For over nine days the islanders' supply of food and medicine remained suspended because of indiscriminate firing by Myanmar forces, ostensibly targeting Arakan rebels. Myanmar drove home the point that it can hold the islanders as hostage at its sweet will. Supply through alternative route, skirting around the normal route between Teknaf and St Martin, has now eased the supply of essential items. Patrolling by ships of Bangladesh navy and coast guard has restored calm and normalcy .But similar crisis-like situation may arise again as long as Myanmar persists its belligerent policy. In its policy of harassment and aggrandisement St Martin will always be a target.

It is not only Myanmar that has got St Martin in the cross-hair. Rumours are rife that a big power wants to take lease of the island to make it a military base. As the confrontation between China and the western powers has become more intense, the need to have a foothold in the Bay of Bengal has become urgent. The attempt to gain control over the island may have been staved off for now. But like the Myanmar tentacle, the pressure from the big power may be seen again, in a different form. So, Bangladesh has to resolve the St Martin issue in a decisive manner to put an end to the occasional pinpricks from Myanmar and arm twisting by any big power.

One solution lies in turning the entire island into a defence garrison with the presence of army, navy, air force and coast guard. To be secure, all facilities should be built underground. In keeping with modern warfare, instead of heavy equipments and armament reliance should be on drones for surveillance and for retaliation or pre-emptive attacks. For this transformation of the island, the present population of 8.400 may be resettled in the mainland giving them adequate compensation. Tourists may be allowed day trip, from morning to evening, in selected parts of the island, under supervision of the garrison authority.

Converting St Martin into a defence garrison will be costly because of construction and re-settlement. It is not something that should be high on the agenda of development of the government. But given the pressure that is being brought to bear by a big power and hostile policy of Myanmar, Bangladesh may have to bite bullet. Militarisation of St Martin now appears as one of the possible solutions to the problem that the island has created simply being where it is.​