[🇧🇩] A Strategic Analysis of Bangladesh Myanmar Relationship

[Saif]

Is Saint Martin an excuse or an objective?

The second reason why attention should be paid to Saint Martin's Island is the statements made by Bangladesh's politicians in the domestic political scene. It began in June last year when Jashod leader Hasanun Huq Inu and Workers Party leader Rashed Khan Menon, allies of the government, said in parliament that the pressure from the US for free and fair election actually had nothing to do with the election, but was aimed at building a base on Saint Martin's. Menon said, "The US wants Saint Martin's" (Banik Barta, 15 June 2023). Inu said, "Why is America suddenly so interest? Do they want democracy? Or Saint Martin's?" (Kaler Kantha, 19 June 2023). Prime minister Sheikh Hasina at a press briefing said, "It's not difficult to remain in power by leasing Saint Martin's Island out" Prothom Alo, 21 June 2023).

Prime minister Sheikh Hasina said that the opposition BNP wanted to sell or lease Saint Martin's out so that they can come to power. In response to this state, the spokesperson of the US embassy in Dhaka Bryan Schiller said the US respects Bangladesh's sovereignty and that includes Saint Martin's. A similar statement was made by the US state department spokesperson Matthew Miller in response to a question posed by journalist Mushfique Fazal Ansarey. He said that the US had never spoken about taking over Saint Martin's Island (Prothom Alo, 28 June 2023).

Since the 1980's politicians have been talking about the US wanting to set up a base on Saint Martin's Island, but the US had also rejected such speculations. The US ambassador in Dhaka at the time, Mary Ann Peters at the time, on 2 July 2003 had said at a discussion held at the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS), the US has no plan, need or desire to establish a military base in Saint Martin's Islam, Chattogram or anywhere in Bangladesh.

To be continued............​

 

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Even so, certain politicians of Bangladesh now and then make such remarks and the India media does so too. Back in 2012, when the US secretary of state at the time Hillary Clinton visited Bangladesh, the Indian Times Group's TV channel 'Time Now' in May claimed in a report aired around the end of May that the US wants to set up a military base in the Bay of Bengal to contain China's growing influence in the region, and this is a matter of concern for India. It was also said that the US wants a naval base in Chattogram.

Without any form of evidence, it was claimed that during her Bangladesh trip, Hillary Clinton had discussed the matter with Bangladesh officials. This comment was made at a discussion. Present at the discussion, the US state department spokesperson Victoria Nuland rejected the claim. Even so, immediately after this Rashed Khan Menon raised the issue in Bangladesh's parliament. The foreign minister at the time, Dipu Moni, said that she had no such conversation with Hillary (bdnews24.com, 1 June 2012).

The India media went as far as to say that the US was wanting this base for their Seventh Fleet. Based on that report, the Bangladesh foreign ministry issued a statement that this report was baseless. The US embassy also refuted the claim (The Daily Star, 2 June 2012). Interestingly, those claiming that a country wants to take lease or ownership of Saint Martin's Island, are not offering any tangible evidence.

The editorial of New Age on 23 June said that "Citizens need to know whether the United States has, in fact, sought to lay its hands on the island in the Bay of Bengal that constitutes the territory of Bangladesh orally or in writing. Who made the offer? To whom? When? Where? The government owes the citizens a statement, notifying and giving clarification on all such issues regarding Saint Martin's Island."

From the 1980's Bangladesh's military and security analysts have been saying that because of its size, shape, location and formation, Saint Martin's is not suitable for any sort of base to be set up there (Commodore Kazi Imdadul Huq, Controversy Surrounding the Alleged Lease of Saint martin's Island, The Security, 6 August 2023). The statement of the security analysts regarding the island is clear, "Saint Martin's Island is not that important in a strategic sense. It is a very small coral island. From a security angle too, the island is not very safe" (M Sakhawat Hossain, Prothom Alo, 16 June 2024).

Despite all of this when a section of Bangladesh's politicians, the India media and some Indian analysts raise questions about the US taking lease of Saint Martin's Island or building a base for the Seventh Fleet in Chattogram, it can't just be brushed off any cursory comments or anti-American statements. Questions can be asked as to whether such discussions concerning the tensions of Saint Martin's are indicative of some other sort of plot or move regarding the island's security. The objective may be to ease the path for some other outside power's direct or indirect presence in Bangladesh's maritime territory ostensibly for security reasons. It is imperative to ensure that the situation does not take such a turn,

* Ali Riaz is distinguished professor of the Department of Politics and Government at the Illinois State University in the US, nonresident senior fellow of the Atlantic Council, and president of the American Institute of Bangladesh Studies.​

 

[Saif]

Can Myanmar make a nuclear bomb?

Myanmar's alleged uranium trade raises concerns over nuclear bomb ambitions and rebel involvement, as reports suggest uranium smuggling by rebel groups and mafia connections.

en.prothomalo.com

Can Myanmar make a nuclear bomb?
Altaf Parvez
Published: 18 Jun 2024, 20: 35

It is being reported in the foreign media that uranium is being traded in Myanmar AFP

Neighbouring countries have no end of concern over Myanmar. Tension rises further if news is heard of uranium, an element used to make nuclear weapons, is being traded in Myanmar. This is happening currently. It is being reported in the foreign media that uranium is being traded in Myanmar. The question is, whether the matter is limited to trade only or they have any other programme as a country in this regard?

Old buzz--new tension

Ahead of recent newspaper reports, it was published that there are uranium mines in several places including the Shan state. They also get uranium as a by-product of gold mines. As a mineral resource, uranium has a demand worldwide as it is used in nuclear bombs.

Myanmar's Shan state is a rebel dominated area. In the area where it is said there is a uranium mine that is dominated by the 'Restoration Council of Shan State'. In the outside world, they are known as 'RCSS'. The name of its arms wing is Shan State Army-South. Its leader is Yawd Serk--a famous rebel leader.

The question is, how refined uranium is being found in Myanmar amid this uncertainty? Even of the matter of Myanmar creating a nuclear bomb is written off as a distant dream, the administration there has become weak due to the civil war raging there. In such circumstances, a subversive syndicate for an element like uranium is certain a matter of grave concern for countries in the neighbourhood.

The rise of Yawd Serk is from Golden Triangle's godfather Khun Sa's warrior society. On one hand he is one of the main characters of narcotics trade and Shan nationalism.

Name of Yawd Serk is being mentioned in the reports of uranium smuggling in Myanmar. It is being said he and his party RCSS gave responsibility to 'yakuza' mafia to sell uranium and collect modern arms including missiles.

US intelligence spent four years and identified as a fake Iranian general and were able to contact Takeshi Ebisawa of the syndicate in Thailand. The matter was leaked in this way. Ebisawa along with several of his associates are in custody of America.

Questions have naturally been raised over the veracity of these incidents. Questions have especially been raised about adding the yakuza of Japan to these incidents. Although these people are called terrorist mafia openly, the Japanese have a secret admiration for them. The administration in Japan also respects yakuzas for their nationalistic character.

Although they are mafia, they think they have a responsibility to look after the interests of Japan across Asia.

Yakuzas naturally don't view the West in a positive light. The West also criticises them strongly. However, much credible information of uranium smuggling has come from the US. They said the samples of uranium the Washington agents collected from the Japanese syndicate are suitable for making nuclear bombs.

Information published in 'Frontier Myanmar' says in connection with Yawd Serk, Ebisawa has 2000 kg Thorium-232 and 100 kg U-308 (Triuranium octaoxide) of Shan. With the help of Thai police, the US has examined samples of these in their labs.
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To be continued..................

 

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Tension multidimensional

If the speculations of uranium trade are true, there are two reasons for alarm. First, the government is not controlling all the mine areas. Some uranium mines are under the control of rebels- the rebels who are desperate for funds. As a commodity uranium would not be an unnatural source of funds for them. Also, there is a reason for tension over the mines controlled by the government as the military government is not transparent in its activities, and they are also trying to overcome the economic crisis by all means. Yawd Serk, meanwhile, denied his involvement. He has said he doesn't know what uranium is.

'Frontier Myanmar' in a report last April said uranium of Shan province seized from Japanese yakuzas was refined at the primary level. The question is, where did this refinery take place? Is there that technology inside Myanmar?

Earlier dreams of nuclear bombs

It was heard many times in the past that Myanmar has a 'dream' to make a nuclear bomb. The country, which has uranium, has an advantage for this aspiration. Myanmar's armed forces Tatmadaw once had an 'atomic unit'. Besides, it is heard that North Korea and Russia have cooperation in this regard. But there was a question over the credibility of these activities of the country.

Moreover, during the rule of Aung San Su Kiy, Myanmar joined an international initiative to stop the test of nuclear bombs. In the face of global boycott in October 2022, Russia declared to establish a nuclear power plant for 'peaceful necessity' Recently, there is news, Bamar army officers have taken training in Moscow and some of them are studying this technology. In such a backdrop, the recent news of the uranium trade has spread tension all around.

News for the first time was published in 2004 that the US maintained strong vigilance over Myanmar for making nuclear bombs. Washington suspects that North Korea may provide cooperation with Bamar generals in this programme.

In November 2008, doubt intensified as a 17-member team led by Myanmar's General Soe Win visited Pyongyang and a location where North Korea is believed to have stored their nuclear arms in a valley. In 2010, a general of Tatmadaw first admitted they were trying to get this technology from North Korea.

Meanwhile, the Myanmar government in a statement said they have no intention to make nuclear bombs, but they have the right to develop this technology for 'peaceful necessity'.

After this statement, the doubt has not decreased. At least, the incident of identifying the Japanese syndicate proves that the US continues its surveillance.

However, nothing can be said finally about the mystery of nuclear power in Myanmar. The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) is a famous organisation to resolve any tension on nuclear security. This organisation in an investigation has said they have not found any proof that Myanmar has a project for making nuclear arms. This does not mean that Myanmar does not have such a type of project. In particular, the country's relation with North Korea intensifies the suspicion.

The question is, how refined uranium is being found in Myanmar amid this uncertainty? Even of the matter of Myanmar creating a nuclear bomb is written off as a distant dream, the administration there has become weak due to the civil war raging there. In such circumstances, a subversive syndicate for an element like uranium is certain a matter of grave concern for countries in the neighbourhood.

* Altaf Parvez is a researcher on history.​

 

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Taking provocations from Rakhine coast seriously

The tiny St. Martinn's Island of Bangladesh has again been in the news, but for the wrong reason. Since the first week of this month, plying of water transports between the mainland and the island has repeatedly come under fire from Myanmar's Rakhine coast, which is about eight&nb

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Taking provocations from Rakhine coast seriously
SYED FATTAHUL ALIM
Published :
Jun 23, 2024 22:01
Updated :
Jun 23, 2024 22:01

The tiny St. Martinn's Island of Bangladesh has again been in the news, but for the wrong reason. Since the first week of this month, plying of water transports between the mainland and the island has repeatedly come under fire from Myanmar's Rakhine coast, which is about eight kilometres away from the island. The residents and visitors to the island, who are totally dependent on the mainland for the supply of food and other necessities,were as a result in a state of great fear and uncertainties for more than a week. As the usual communication between Teknaf (an upazila of Cox's Bazar under which the island is a Union Parishad) and the St. Martin's via the Naf river became risky due to occasional gunfire from the Rakhine State of Myanmar, the government at a stage had to use the sea route from Cox's Bazar to reach food and other supplies to the island. It is unfortunate that the St. Martin's Island, an integral part of sovereign Bangladesh remained cut off from the mainland for so many days to the utter dismay and suffering of the islanders! Whoever might have been behind the firings, the Myanmar government forces or the members of Arakan Army (AA), the Rakhine State-based ethnic armed organization (EAO), an immediate response from the Bangladesh side was urgently expected to put a stop to such illegal activities within Bangladesh's territorial waters. Notably, since October last year, the fighting between the AA, two other EAOs and the forces of military junta in Naypyidaw erupted in the northern part of Myanmar. As the fighting had been taking place quite close to the Bangladesh border, the impact of the conflict occasionally spilled over into Bangladesh territory. Artillery shells falling on Bangladesh territory causing injuries and even death to villagers on this side of the border, instances of violation of Bangladesh's airspace by Myanmar junta's air force were frequent. Incidents of Myanmar's Border Guard Police (BGP) personnel, injured or otherwise, fleeing to Bangladesh for shelter have been taking place from time to time. The local authorities in Bangladesh have been generous enough to provide them shelter and arrange for treatment of the wounded followed by their subsequent repatriation home. Such acts of generosity and humanity were never reciprocated by the Myanmar side.

So, there is no scope of taking the recent firings from the other side of Bangladesh-Myanmar border that caused serious dislocation of ferry service between mainland and the St. Martin's Island lightly. The instances of gunfire do not appear to have been aimless since on June 5 the gunfire (from that Rakhine coast) that hit the water transport carrying Bangladesh's Election Commission officials and their equipment was to all intents and purposes deliberate. Later a vessel carrying supplies to the island from Teknaf was fired upon, forcing local authorities to suspend ferry service between Teknaf and the island via Naf River temporarily. Similar firings continued to target any vessel found crossing the waterway of Naf river including a speed boat on June 11.

To read the rest of the news, please click on the link above.​

 

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Endeavours for transition to green electric energy

Bangladesh has been working to increase the use of renewable energy in its energy mix. State Minister for the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Nasrul Hamid, MP considers that Bangladesh needs coordinated initiatives and major investment to make green energy transition. He confirms th

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Should we think differently about St Martin?
HASNAT ABDUL HYE
Published :
Jun 25, 2024 21:32
Updated :
Jun 25, 2024 21:32

Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB) personnel get off from a civilian vessel to begin their deployment on St Martin's Island on April 7, 2019 Photo : Collected Photo


My visit to St. Martin in 1976 as the Deputy Commissioner was reportedly the first ever by a senior government officer in the memory of the islanders. Not having even the status of a ward of an union porishad, the island was the very epitome of being an administrative and political backwater. With a population of little over 1800 in 1976, St. Martin did not qualify to have the status of a local government unit and therefore was beyond the pale of the administrative network. The only presence of the government was a platoon of erstwhile BDR which had no physical infrastructure of their own and per force availed of the space available adjacent to the only mosque in the island. Their duty was ostensibly the prevention of smuggling in the Bay of Bengal, a goal belied by their number, housing and transport facilities. With no economic and strategic importance, St Martin suffered the benign neglect of successive governments in stoic resignation

Fast forward to the start of the third millennium. St Martin with a population of over seven thousand became a tourist attraction. After about a quarter century, St Martin is now a tourist hotspot. For holiday makers it became a favourite go-to place by the turn of the century, what with its wind-swept landscape dotted with tall coconut trees and corals under water. Besides, there was the thrill of travelling in the blue water of sea that became high waves, tossing and turning boats. The island also attracted visitors who, shunning the sybaritic pleasures, went for exploration of the mystery in sands and under water flora and fauna. Before long, the island was dotted with hotels and rest houses of all shapes and sizes. It also attracted those who were keen to cash in on its new found popularity as a holiday destination and bought land to set up resorts.

St Martin assumed a new status of importance with the competing claims of Bangladesh and Myanmar over territorial limits in the Bay of Bengal. The potentials of finding oil and gas in the Bay made ownership and sovereignty over the Bay of great importance. The UN court that adjudicated the dispute over the maritime boundary took St Martin as the base for delimiting the maritime border between the two countries. According to observers, Bangladesh got more than 128,600 nautical miles of the Bay because of its ownership of St Martin. It may be the tipping point that made Myanmar look at St Martin with a jaundiced eye. In 2018 the ministry of population of Myanmar put up a map in their website showing St Martin within their territorial limits. After protest by Bangladesh foreign ministry the map was removed. But there are enough indications that Myanmar has not given up its designs to sway over as much of the Bay as would satisfy its policy of aggrandisement. Its naval ships were seen last year within the territorial waters of Bangladesh near St Martin. This encroachment was stopped only after formal protest was made. Myanmar was clearly and literally testing waters to see if the government of Bangladesh would react strongly. Then there was the incident of oil and gas exploration by a South Korean company Daewoo near St Martin which saw the two countries at eye-to-eye confrontation because of the trespass by Myanmar.

Very lately, in the first week of June, Bangladeshi boats and ships carrying passengers from Teknaf to St Martin were fired at by Myanmar armed forces, bringing transport between the mainland and the island to a standstill. Soon after this three ships of Myanmar navy were seen off the coast of St Martin scaring the residents of the island. For over nine days the islanders' supply of food and medicine remained suspended because of indiscriminate firing by Myanmar forces, ostensibly targeting Arakan rebels. Myanmar drove home the point that it can hold the islanders as hostage at its sweet will. Supply through alternative route, skirting around the normal route between Teknaf and St Martin, has now eased the supply of essential items. Patrolling by ships of Bangladesh navy and coast guard has restored calm and normalcy .But similar crisis-like situation may arise again as long as Myanmar persists its belligerent policy. In its policy of harassment and aggrandisement St Martin will always be a target.

It is not only Myanmar that has got St Martin in the cross-hair. Rumours are rife that a big power wants to take lease of the island to make it a military base. As the confrontation between China and the western powers has become more intense, the need to have a foothold in the Bay of Bengal has become urgent. The attempt to gain control over the island may have been staved off for now. But like the Myanmar tentacle, the pressure from the big power may be seen again, in a different form. So, Bangladesh has to resolve the St Martin issue in a decisive manner to put an end to the occasional pinpricks from Myanmar and arm twisting by any big power.

One solution lies in turning the entire island into a defence garrison with the presence of army, navy, air force and coast guard. To be secure, all facilities should be built underground. In keeping with modern warfare, instead of heavy equipments and armament reliance should be on drones for surveillance and for retaliation or pre-emptive attacks. For this transformation of the island, the present population of 8.400 may be resettled in the mainland giving them adequate compensation. Tourists may be allowed day trip, from morning to evening, in selected parts of the island, under supervision of the garrison authority.

Converting St Martin into a defence garrison will be costly because of construction and re-settlement. It is not something that should be high on the agenda of development of the government. But given the pressure that is being brought to bear by a big power and hostile policy of Myanmar, Bangladesh may have to bite bullet. Militarisation of St Martin now appears as one of the possible solutions to the problem that the island has created simply being where it is.​

 

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Bangladesh protests at Myanmar gunfire on fishermen

Dhaka on Sunday raised deep concern to Myanmar over instances of gunfire targeting Bangladeshi fishermen amid the neighbouring country’s internal conflict, stressing the...

www.newagebd.net

Bangladesh protests at Myanmar gunfire on fishermen
Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha . Dhaka 11 November, 2024, 00:37

Dhaka on Sunday raised deep concern to Myanmar over instances of gunfire targeting Bangladeshi fishermen amid the neighbouring country’s internal conflict, stressing the urgency of preventing further such occurrences.

The concerned was flagged when Myanmar ambassador to Bangladesh U Kyaw Soe Moe met with foreign secretary Md Jashim Uddin at the foreign ministry in Dhaka.

During the meeting, the foreign secretary expressed deep concerns regarding the escalating situation in Myanmar, particularly in Rakhine State, according to a foreign ministry’s press release.

He expressed Dhaka’s security concerns along the border, noting stray mortar shells and shooting at Bangladeshi boats due to Myanmar’s internal conflicts.

These incidents had heightened tensions among Bangladeshi border communities, impacting their daily lives, said the foreign secretary.

He also highlighted that the Myanmar’s turmoil had intensified forced displacement, resulting in a recent influx of Rohingya people into Bangladesh, adding to the over 1.2 million already sheltered there.

Reflecting on his recent visit to Cox’s Bazar, the foreign secretary cited the deterioration of law and order, the rise in criminal activities and violent clashes within the camps, increased drug smuggling and trafficking, all of which have placed substantial pressure on local resources and administration.

He also pointed out the environmental and economic toll on host communities, underscoring the importance of an early repatriation process.

The foreign secretary conveyed that the Rohingya in the camps strongly desired to return to Myanmar.

The Myanmar envoy acknowledged the need for a feasible solution to the displacement crisis, affirming on the need for their repatriation.

The two sides also discussed the recent UNDP forecast of a potential famine in Rakhine, with the foreign secretary urging Myanmar to take immediate action to address the issue and prevent further displacement towards Bangladesh.​

 

[Saif]

Formulating coherent Myanmar policy

OR centuries, the polities located in the Bengal delta — the Bengal Sultanate, the Bengal subah, or the Bengal Presidency — have shared complex ties with Arakan (Rakhine State) and Burma (Myanmar). While there existed substantial trade links, cultural interaction and migration flows between the...

www.newagebd.net

Formulating coherent Myanmar policy
Md Himel Rahman 21 January, 2025, 00:00

Rohingya refugees attend a ceremony organised to remember the second anniversary of a military crackdown that prompted a massive exodus of people from Myanmar to Bangladesh at the Kutupalong refugee camp in Ukhia on August 25. | Agence France-Presse/Munir uz Zaman

FOR centuries, the polities located in the Bengal delta — the Bengal Sultanate, the Bengal subah, or the Bengal Presidency — have shared complex ties with Arakan (Rakhine State) and Burma (Myanmar). While there existed substantial trade links, cultural interaction and migration flows between the two regions, they also engaged in intermittent warfare, with the Arakanese/Burmese occasionally invading the current Chattogram division and the Bengalis periodically establishing protectorates over parts of the Rakhine State. In 1948, Myanmar obtained independence from the United Kingdom and the Rakhine State became one of its constituent parts. On its part, Bangladesh obtained its independence from the United Kingdom, as a constituent wing of Pakistan, in 1947 and from Pakistan in 1971.

Since 1971, a number of factors, including the protracted Rohingya refugee crisis, the continuous flow of drugs from Myanmar to Bangladesh, occasional border conflicts and silent strategic competition, have persistently overshadowed the potential benefits of a comprehensive economic partnership between the two states.

Bangladesh–Myanmar relations

STATE-SANCTIONED campaigns of ethnic cleansing and inter-communal riots have resulted in the repeated flights of hundreds of thousands of Muslim-majority Rohingyas, largely concentrated in Myanmar’s northern Rakhine State, to Bangladesh in 1978, 1991–1997, 2012, 2015, 2016–2018 and 2024. Bangladesh now hosts about 1.4 million Rohingya refugees and the protracted crisis has imposed serious economic, political, social, environmental and security costs on the country. Meanwhile, decades of internal conflict, rampant corruption and failures of governance have turned Myanmar into a narco-state and Bangladesh has become a substantial market as well as a significant transit route for Myanmar-origin drugs such as methamphetamine (Yaba) tablets, crystal meth (Ice), and heroin. Bangladesh–Myanmar relations have periodically been characterised by border clashes, the killing and detention of Bangladeshi civilians, the violation of Bangladesh’s borders and Myanmar’s territorial claims over the St Martins Island. Accordingly, Bangladesh and Myanmar have been locked in a largely silent military-strategic competition, illustrated by their respective acquisitions of Chinese and Indian submarines.

Still, Myanmar holds unique geopolitical and geo-economic significance for Bangladesh. The geographically larger but comparatively less populated and less industrialised Myanmar is one of the top producers of rice and other agricultural products and contains substantial reserves of oil and natural gas. Hence, by forging a comprehensive economic partnership with Myanmar, Bangladesh can ensure its food and energy security to a large extent. Myanmar can be a large market for Bangladeshi industrial and agricultural products, including textiles, textile wastes, cement, pharmaceutical goods potatoes and fish. Moreover, complexities in Indo–Bangladeshi relations necessitate the implementation of a more active ‘look east’ policy for Dhaka and Myanmar serves as Bangladesh’s potential gateway to China and Southeast Asia. Hence, enhancing connectivity between the two states through developing infrastructure is beneficial for both.

Both Bangladesh and Myanmar are in turmoil now. After the 2024 uprising, Bangladesh is struggling with political instability, financial uncertainty, growing crimes and simmering unrest among religious and ethnic minorities. On its part, Myanmar’s situation is worse, with the degeneration of the country’s decades-long internal conflict into a full-scale civil war in 2021. The Myanmar government exerts stable control over only one-third of Myanmar’s territory. Ethnic armed organisations control more than 80 per cent and 85 per cent of the Rakhine and Chin States respectively, thus effectively controlling the entire length of the Bangladesh–Myanmar border.

New Myanmar policy

FOR decades, Bangladesh has pursued an ad hoc policy vis-à-vis Myanmar and even the Rohingya crisis has failed to influence Dhaka to formulate a coherent set of policies towards its southeastern neighbour. Hence, Dhaka needs to formulate a pragmatic, flexible and systematic Myanmar policy for 2025 and onwards.

First, Bangladesh should prioritise the protection of its sovereignty, territorial integrity and national security over all other concerns, such as geo-economic interests, in dealing with Myanmar. In particular, Bangladesh should undertake necessary political and security measures to protect its citizens from the spillovers of the conflict in Myanmar, to prevent the violation of its land border, airspace, and maritime frontier, and preserve its control over all territories adjacent to the Myanmar border.

Second, while both Bangladesh and Myanmar can benefit from joint connectivity and infrastructure projects, such projects are unlikely to be realised unless a stable and secure government is established in Myanmar. Till then, Dhaka should adopt a policy of cautious economic engagement with Myanmar.

Third, the outcome of the Myanmar civil war is far from certain. So, Dhaka should maintain substantial contacts with all major stakeholders, including the Tatmadaw-controlled Myanmar government, the opposition National Unity Government, the United League of Arakan and its military wing Arakan Army, the ethnic armed organisations in the Chin State and the Rohingya organisations inside the Rakhine State. At the same time, Bangladesh should closely monitor the situation on the ground in Myanmar and adjust its policies on the basis of ground reality.

Fourth, drug trade has become enmeshed in Bangladesh’s political economy while drug abuse poses a serious threat to the state’s societal stability. Hence, Bangladesh should adopt and implement strict drug control policies to contain the drug epidemic. In this sphere, Dhaka should engage with all relevant actors in Myanmar and attempt to develop collaborative ties with them to prevent the smuggling of drugs into Bangladesh.

Fifth, the security of southeastern Bangladesh, in both its internal and external dimensions, is closely connected with the situation in Myanmar’s Rakhine and Chin States. So, Bangladeshi intelligence agencies should monitor the military-political situation in those two regions while the Bangladeshi military should prepare for all eventualities or contingencies arising out of Myanmar.

Finally, Bangladesh has so far resorted to extensive diplomatic measures, including bilateral dialogues, trilateral negotiations, multilateral mechanisms and international legal instruments, to ensure the repatriation of Rohingya refugees to Myanmar, but none of them has produced any fruitful result. Meanwhile, the Rakhine State is in a flux, with the Tatmadaw in retreat and the Arakan Army occupying more than 80 per cent of the region. The Arakan Army and its political wing United League of Arakan are not internationally recognised and it has struggled to effectively govern the war-torn region. Moreover, it has occupied the traditionally Rohingya-populated Maungdaw and Buthidaung townships in northern Rakhine State, but its forces have committed atrocities against the Rohingyas and its control over northern Rakhine State has come under challenge from the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army. Thus, the Rakhine State is currently facing a power vacuum.

Bangladesh should view the unfolding situation in the Rakhine State in a calculative manner and examine its options for facilitating the repatriation of the Rohingyas to northern Rakhine under the current circumstances. Having weighed all political, economic, strategic and diplomatic factors, the state should boldly push for the repatriation of the Rohingyas by leveraging the Tatmadaw’s current predicament and the Arakan Army’s lack of international legitimacy.

Under the current circumstances, challenges outweigh opportunities in relations between Bangladesh and Myanmar. Accordingly, Bangladesh should adopt and pursue a pragmatic, calculative and interest-driven Myanmar policy, with a particular emphasis on the prioritisation of national security, the containment of Myanmar-origin drug trade and the repatriation of the Rohingya refugees.

Md Himel Rahman is a Dhaka-based freelance analyst on international and strategic affairs.​