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China is âworldâs sole manufacturing superpowerâ, with 35% of global output, more than the 9 next largest manufacturers combined
Chinaâs state-led economic development model and robust industrial policy has transformed it into what an influential European think tank calls âthe worldâs sole manufacturing superpowerâ, making up 35% of global gross production â more than the 9 next largest manufacturers combined.ByBen Norton
Jan. 31 2024
China has overseen world-historic economic growth through a government-led development model, in which state-owned enterprises control the natural monopolies and âcommanding heightsâ of the economy, state-owned banks give favorable loans to strategic industries, and the stateâs robust industrial policy helps the country move up the value chain toward higher value-added forms of production.
This model, which Beijing officially refers to as a socialist market economy, has been so successful that a prominent European think tank has acknowledged that âChina is now the worldâs sole manufacturing superpowerâ.
In 2020, China made up a staggering 35% of global gross manufacturing production. That is more than the combined output of the United States (12%), Japan (6%), Germany (4%), India (3%), South Korea (3%), Italy (2%), France (2%), and the United Kingdom.
This is according to the research of Richard Baldwin, a professor of international economics at the IMD Business School in Lausanne, Switzerland, and the editor-in-chief of VoxEU, a publication hosted by the Europe-based Centre for Economic Policy Research, or CEPR (not to be confused with the Washington-based Center for Economic and Policy Research, which uses the same acronym).
CEPR is very influential in European policy-making circles, and receives funding from Franceâs central bank and Finance Ministry, as well as the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, and numerous private banks in Europe.
The think tank represents the political mainstream in the EU, and is by no means a âpro-Chineseâ institution.
In a January VoxEU research paper titled âChina is the worldâs sole manufacturing superpowerâ, Baldwin wrote (emphasis added):
The US is the worldâs sole military superpower. It spends more on its military than the ten next highest spending countries combined. China is now the worldâs sole manufacturing superpower. Its production exceeds that of the nine next largest manufacturers combined.
Baldwin explained that, even when output is measured at value added (that is, gross production minus the cost of intermediate goods bought to produce those manufactures), China makes up 29% of global manufacturing, compared to just 16% for the United States, 7% for Japan, 5% for Germany, 3% for South Korea, 3% for India, 2% for Italy, 2% for France, and 2% for Great Britain.
Baldwin wrote (emphasis added):
He added that this âremarkable fact helps us to understand current US-China trade tensionsâ.Chinaâs industrialisation is unprecedented. The last time the âking of the manufacturing hillâ got knocked off the throne was when the US surpassed the UK just before WW1. It took the US the better part of a century to rise to the top; the China-US switch took about 15 or 20 years. Chinaâs industrialisation, in short, defies comparison.
Chinaâs rapid industrialization through a state-led development model has coincided with the United Statesâ relative de-industrialization through a neoliberal economic model based on privatization, liberalization, deregulation, financialization, and unproductive speculation.
Seeking to halt Chinaâs rise, the US government has levied many rounds of unilateral sanctions and waged what Washington insiders have referred to as a âtechnology warâ against China, imposing export restrictions in cutting-edge sectors like 5G, semiconductors, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence.
Western governments have pledged to âdecoupleâ from the Chinese economy and âderiskâ strategically important industries.
However, in his CEPR research paper, Baldwin emphasized that the US is much more dependent on buying Chinese manufactured goods than China is dependent on the US market to sell its exports.
âIn 2020, the US was about three times more exposed to Chinese manufacturing production than vice versaâ, Baldwin wrote. He added that âthe numbers are astoundingâ.
Baldwin cautioned, âPoliticians may wish to decouple their economies from China. These data suggest that decoupling would be difficult, slow, expensive, and disruptive â especially to G7 manufacturersâ.
China is 'world's sole manufacturing superpower', with 35% of global output - Geopolitical Economy Report
China is "the world's sole manufacturing superpower", an EU think tank says, making up 35% of global gross production, more than the 9 next largest manufacturers combined.
geopoliticaleconomy.com