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Wars 2023 10/08 Monitoring the Israel and Lebanon War

Wars 2023 10/08 Monitoring the Israel and Lebanon War
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Nasrallah killing sets a dangerous precedent
Syed Badrul Ahsan
Published :
Oct 02, 2024 21:35
Updated :
Oct 02, 2024 21:35

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The killing of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, along with many of his close associates, in an Israeli raid in Lebanon certainly does not end the crisis in the Middle East. Much as Benjamin Netanyahu would like the world to know, the activities of the Israeli military in this past year have only exacerbated conditions in the region. And now, with Nasrallah's death, a greater danger is what the wider world confronts.

There are the reasons why the world should be concerned about what has been going wrong in the Middle East. Israel's pounding of Gaza and the West Bank in the past twelve months, the consequence being the death of nearly 42,000 Palestinians and survivors forced into internal exile of the worst sort, has gone on unchecked. The international community has been unable to either restrain Netanyahu or to censure him, that last bit owing to the strong levels of support he yet enjoys in such capitals as Washington.

The consequences of inaction against Netanyahu and his extremist government are now out there for all to see. Israeli intelligence has tracked senior military commanders of Hamas and Hezbollah --- and add to that number the high-level Iranians who have been victims of targeted killings --- and put an end to their lives. But such action has only emboldened Israel's enemies into deepening their operations against Tel Aviv. Netanyahu's consistent claim that he would destroy Hamas has been followed by renewed assaults, through missile attacks on Israeli towns, by Hamas.

Israel has clearly been unable to subdue Hamas. It should have been for Israel's embattled leadership to opt for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. A refusal to take that path has only widened the theatre of conflict, with the Israelis now embroiled in fresh crises in southern Lebanon and Yemen. Israel's bizarre ability to create new enemies has now made it hard for it to set a course toward a rolling back of the situation. It was a blunder taking out Nasrallah and his team in Beirut. It does not help that Joe Biden, rather than taking Netanyahu to task over the action, chose to describe the killing operation in Beirut as a measure of justice for the Hezbollah leader.

All of this has pushed geopolitics into a condition where niceties and respect for territorial integrity have been pushed to an extreme by Israel's leaders. With Israel freely and without any demonstration of respect for international law having its air force rain down missiles on Beirut in search of Hezbollah, worries assume a horrendous dimension. And that is largely the creation of a precedent that in future will allow states to send in their forces into countries they might feel will be necessary to bomb, kill or flush out their enemies. Lebanon is no stranger to such external violence. In the 1980s, Israeli troops and Palestinian guerrillas fought it out in the country, ruining the very fabric of Lebanon's political system. Now the assault on Beirut and on southern Lebanon throws up the very real possibility of the Middle East crisis not only broadening out but also of states not involved in the crisis bearing the brunt of external assault.

Benjamin Netanyahu has warned Iran's leadership that Israel has the ability to reach deep into Iran, a statement grounded on the understanding that the Hezbollah has long enjoyed Tehran's support in its operations against Tel Aviv. Now 200 Iranian missiles hitting Tel Aviv have given Netanyahu a taste of his own medicine. Netanyahu's bellicosity should raise alarm bells around the world, for it is patently dismissive of international law. A rules-based world is clearly under threat, for other nations might now begin to feel the need to assert their authority over nations they consider enemies by simply bombing them into submission or having their soldiers march into them as a way of achieving their questionable purposes. It is a precedent which someday might have Pakistani soldiers go into Afghanistan to subdue the Taliban forces responsible for trouble at the frontier between the two countries.

Israel's violation of Lebanese sovereignty, together with its refusal to draw an end to the massacre of Palestinians in Gaza, is stark warning for the world of the terror that might threaten the future of nations. Iran will, in light of Netanyahu's bombast, be under threat of an Israeli assault. And one can be sure that no leaders in the West will condemn such a move if it comes to pass. The irony is that while large sections of the western leadership were quick to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, one does not seriously expect them to do a similar act if Iran falls under Israeli aggression. They will be happy to see regime change in Tehran through Israeli military action. And out of that situation will emerge a new crisis, with Turkey's Recep Tayyep Erdogan not willing to remain quiet when his own borders come under threat as a result of Israeli action against Iran.

Nations around the globe have a right to be concerned about the impunity with which Israel's leadership has been vitiating the scene over the past year. Its bombing of Beirut has pushed Lebanon to a fresh spate of instability, given that it already suffers from issues of governance. If Israel's leadership remain unleashed in their violence, other leaders around the world, their own motives at work, might be inspired into taking a leaf out of the Israeli playbook. Rwanda could decide to march into Congo in force to subdue elements it considers a threat to its security. With the Chinese laying claims to chunks of Indian territory, the leadership in Delhi will be properly and justifiably worried about the threat. The 1962 border clashes have not been forgotten by Indians. A new Trump administration could be tempted to send American troops into Mexico to force an end to the influx of refugees into the United States. With belligerence permeating policy-making in the new Nato member states along its border, a resurgent Russia might someday decide to teach them a lesson by direct military means. Hungary 1956 and Czechoslovakia 1968 remain unforgotten.

The danger is therefore hard to ignore. The state of Israel is a threat to global stability in these times. More pertinently, Netanyahu symbolises this danger. As long as he clings to power, people around the world will not sleep well at night. War criminals on the loose are a risk to lives everywhere.​
 
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Hezbollah loses contact with top leaders after air strikes
Agence France-Presse . Beirut 06 October, 2024, 00:21

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Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted Beirut’s southern suburbs on Saturday. | AFP photo

Hashem Safieddine, with whom contact has been lost after Israeli air strikes, according to a senior Hezbollah source, is the man widely considered the potential successor to the group’s assassinated leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Another source close to Hezbollah previously told AFP that the deeply religious cleric Safieddine, who has family ties to Nasrallah and good relations with its backer Iran, was the ‘most likely’ candidate for the party’s top job.

Grey-bearded and bespectacled, Safieddine bears a striking resemblance to his distant cousin Nasrallah, but is several years his junior, aged in his late 50s or early 60s.

A week after massive Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs killed longtime leader Nasrallah, heavy bombardment early Friday again targeted Beirut’s southern suburbs.

‘Contact with Sayyed Safieddine has been lost since the violent strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs’ Friday, the source told AFP, requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

‘We don’t know if he was at the targeted site, or who may have been there with him.’

Hezbollah’s deputy leader Naim Qassem, who took over the leadership by default after Nasrallah’s death, said Monday the group would name a new chief ‘at the earliest opportunity’.

The powerful decision-making Shura Council must meet to elect a new secretary-general.

Safieddine, a member of the council, has strong ties to the Islamic republic after undergoing religious studies in Iran’s holy city of Qom.

His son is married to the daughter of General Qasem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards foreign operations arm who was killed in a 2020 US strike in Iraq.

Safieddine bears the title of Sayyed, his black turban marking him—like Nasrallah—as considered to be a descendant of the Prophet Mohammed.

The United States and Saudi Arabia put him on their respective lists of designated ‘terrorists’ in 2017.

Unlike Nasrallah, who lived in hiding for years, Safieddine has appeared openly at recent political and religious events.

Foregoing his usual calm demeanour, he has broken into fiery rhetoric at the funerals of Hezbollah fighters killed in nearly a year of cross-border clashes with Israel.

Amal Saad, a Lebanese researcher on Hezbollah based at Cardiff University, said that for years people have been saying that Safieddine was ‘the most likely successor’ to Nasrallah.

‘The next leader has to be on the Shura Council, which has a handful of members, and he has to be a religious figure,’ she said.

Safieddine has ‘a lot of authority’, she added, describing him as ‘the strongest contender’ for the group’s leadership.

Nicholas Blanford, a Beirut-based Hezbollah expert and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, also said Safieddine has ‘been touted as a potential successor to Nasrallah for years’.

He has ‘the right credentials’, Blanford said—he is a religious figure, from Lebanon’s south, from where ‘most of Hezbollah’s leadership tends to come’, and also heads Hezbollah’s powerful executive council.

Hezbollah was created at the initiative of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and gained its moniker as ‘the Resistance’ by fighting Israeli troops who occupied southern Lebanon until 2000.

The movement was founded during the Lebanese civil war after Israel besieged the capital Beirut in 1982.

In July in a speech in Beirut’s southern suburbs, Safieddine alluded to how Hezbollah views its leadership succession.

‘In our resistance... when any leader is martyred, another takes up the flag and goes on with new, certain, strong determination,’ he said.​
 
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Israel pounds Lebanon ahead of Hamas attack anniversary
Agence France-Presse . Beirut 06 October, 2024, 23:52

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Residents walk amid the destruction in the aftermath of an Israeli strike that targeted the Sfeir neighbourhood in Beirut’s southern suburbs on Sunday. | AFP photo

A fireball lit up the sky and smoke billowed over Beirut on Sunday as Israel unleashed intense strikes targeting Hezbollah, almost a year since the Hamas attack that sparked war in Gaza.

In Gaza, Israel’s military said it had encircled the northern area of Jabaliya after indications Hamas was rebuilding despite nearly a year of devastating air strikes and fighting.

As another strike hit Beirut’s southern suburbs, Lebanese prime minister Najib Mikati appealed to the international community to put pressure on Israel for a ceasefire.

Israel is on high alert ahead of the anniversary on Monday of Hamas’s unprecedented October 7 attack which triggered the war in Gaza.

Israel has now turned its focus northwards to Hezbollah, Hamas’s Iran-backed ally in Lebanon, and has vowed to avenge an Iranian missile attack.

Iran on Sunday said it had prepared a plan to hit back against any possible Israeli attack, before Israel’s defence minister Yoav Gallant warned Iran it could end up looking like Gaza or Beirut.

Lebanon’s official National News Agency said Hezbollah’s south Beirut stronghold was hit by more than 30 strikes, with a petrol station and a medical supplies warehouse also hit.

‘The strikes were like an earthquake,’ said shopkeeper Mehdi Zeiter, 60.

Israel’s military said it struck weapons storage facilities and infrastructure while taking measures ‘to mitigate the risk of harming civilians’.

AFPTV footage showed a massive fireball over a residential area, followed by a loud bang and secondary explosions. Smoke was still billowing from the site after dawn.

Later, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu paid a visit to troops along the northern border, his office said, nearly a week after the army launched a ground operation inside Lebanon.

Ahead of Monday’s grim anniversary, Israeli military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari told a televised briefing: ‘We are prepared with increased forces in anticipation for this day’, when there might be ‘attacks on the home front’.

Last year’s October 7 attack on Israel by Palestinian militants resulted in the deaths of 1,205 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli official figures that include hostages killed in captivity.

One year on, Israel’s war in Gaza against Hamas continues despite its focus shifting to Lebanon and Hezbollah.

On Sunday the military said it had encircled the Jabaliya area of northern Gaza after intelligence detected ‘efforts by Hamas to rebuild its operational capabilities’.

The army said it had killed about 440 Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon ‘from the ground and from the air’ since Monday, when troops began what it called targeted ground operations.

Israel says it aims to allow tens of thousands of Israelis displaced by almost a year of Hezbollah rocket fire into northern Israel to return home.

Israeli president Isaac Herzog called Iran an ‘on-going threat’ after Tehran, which backs armed groups across the Middle East, launched around 200 missiles at Israel on Tuesday in revenge for Israeli killings of militant leaders including Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah.

Iran’s attack killed a Palestinian in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and damaged an Israeli air base, according to satellite images.

It came the same day Israeli ground forces began raids into Lebanon after days of intense strikes on Hezbollah strongholds.

One Israeli military official said the army ‘is preparing a response’ to Iran’s attack.

Netanyahu noted Iran had twice launched ‘hundreds of missiles’ at Israel since April.

‘Israel has the duty and the right to defend itself and to respond to these attacks and that is what we will do,’ he said in a statement.

Netanyahu’s critics accuse him of obstructing efforts to reach a Gaza ceasefire and a deal to free hostages still held by Hamas.

Iran has prepared a plan to respond to a possible Israeli attack, Tasnim news agency reported, citing an informed source.

The Islamic republic’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on Friday warned that ‘the resistance in the region will not back down’.

A senior Hezbollah source said Saturday the group had lost contact with Hashem Safieddine, widely tipped as its next leader, after air strikes in Beirut.

The movement has yet to name a new chief after Israel assassinated Nasrallah late last month in a massive strike in Lebanon’s capital.

Across Lebanon, strikes against Hezbollah have killed more than 1,110 people since September 23, according to an AFP tally based on official figures.

UN’s refugee agency head Filippo Grandi said Lebanon ‘faces a terrible crisis’ and warned ‘hundreds of thousands of people are left destitute or displaced by Israeli air strikes’.

Israeli bombardment has put at least four hospitals in Lebanon out of service, the facilities said.

The UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon said it rejected a request by Israel’s military to ‘relocate some of our positions’ in south Lebanon.

Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, in Damascus Saturday after visiting Beirut, renewed his call for ceasefires in both Gaza and Lebanon and threatened Israel with an ‘even stronger’ reaction to any attack on Iran.

US, Qatari and Egyptian mediators tried unsuccessfully for months to reach a Gaza truce and secure the release of 97 hostages still held there.

Gaza’s civil defence agency said on Sunday an Israeli strike on a mosque-turned-shelter in central Deir al-Balah killed 26 people. Israel said it had targeted Hamas militants.

Israel’s retaliatory military offensive has killed at least 41,870 people in Gaza, the majority of them civilians, according to figures provided by the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry and described as reliable by the UN.

Ahead of the October 7 anniversary, thousands joined pro-Palestinian rallies in London, Paris, Cape Town and other cities.

Israel’s president Herzog said his country’s October 7 ‘wounds still cannot fully heal’.​
 
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Hezbollah says targets Israel army base near Haifa
Published: 07 Oct 2024, 09: 57

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Damaged cars in Hezbollah's rocket attack in Israel's Haifa on 22 September AFP file photo

Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah group said early Monday it had targeted an Israeli military base near the northern city of Haifa, the third attack on a military position in the area in one day.

Hezbollah fighters launched "a salvo of Fadi 1 rockets at the Carmel base south of Haifa," late Sunday the group said in a statement, having earlier reported two attacks on another base also south of Haifa. The group dedicated the attack to its leader Hassan Nasrallah, killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut's southern suburbs last month.​
 
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Israeli strikes endanger civilians on Lebanon-Syria border
Agence France-Presse . Beirut 07 October, 2024, 21:56

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Children play around an emergency services tent set up at the Jdeidat Yabus border crossing in southwestern Syria as displaced people arrive from Lebanon on Monday. | AFP photo

Human Rights Watch on Monday said Israeli strikes near the main Lebanon-Syria border crossing were putting civilians at ‘grave risk’ as they prevented them from fleeing and hampered humanitarian operations.

The Israeli military said Friday its fighter jets struck Hezbollah positions near the Masnaa border crossing in Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa Valley.

Syrian transport ministry official Sleiman Khalil said on Monday that the road was still ‘completely cut off to vehicle traffic’, but people could still cross on foot.

Human Rights Watch said the strikes were ‘impeding civilians trying to flee and disrupting humanitarian operations’, adding ‘the situation places civilians at grave risk.’

‘An Israeli attack on a legitimate military target may still be unlawful if it can be expected to cause immediate civilian harm disproportionate to the anticipated military gain,’ it said in a statement.

If Hezbollah used the crossing to transfer weapons, the Iran-backed group too ‘may be failing to take all feasible precautions to protect civilians under their control’, HRW added.

The Israeli military said it ‘struck an underground tunnel’ crossing the border that ‘enables the transfer and storage of large quantities of weapons underground’.

‘The tunnel’s operations were led by the 4400 Unit, the unit responsible for the transportation of weapons from Iran and its proxies to Hezbollah in Lebanon,’ the military added.

On Friday, an AFP photographer saw people carrying bags and children as they walked around a crater where a strike had hit.

The head of the United Nations refugee agency Filippo Grandi warned Sunday that the bombing of the road ‘has de facto blocked many people from seeking safety in Syria’.

Lebanese authorities said Friday that more than 3,70,000 people had crossed from Lebanon into Syria since September 23, most of them Syrian nationals.

More than 7,74,000 Syrian refugees were registered with the UN in Lebanon before the latest escalation, though the tiny country said that it hosted some two million of them — the world’s highest ratio of refugees per capita.

HRW’s Lama Fakih said that ‘by making a border crossing inaccessible at a time when hundreds of thousands of people are fleeing fighting and many others are in need of aid, the Israeli military threatens considerable civilian harm.’

Even if the crossing were used for military purposes, ‘Israel would need to take into account the expected civilian harm compared to the anticipated military gain’, she added in the statement.​
 
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