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Date of Event:
Sep 2, 2025
Modi Canāt Afford to Cut Ties with Trump
Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi speak to each other before the start of the meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit 2025 in Tianjin, China on September 01, 2025.Ā© AnadoluāGetty Images
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin, China grabbed the worldās attention this weekend. Much of the commentary was centered on the presence of Indiaās Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who visited China for the first time in seven years. Photographs from Tianjin showed Modi with Chinaās Xi Jinping and Russiaās Vladimir Putin.
This prompted two lines of narrative. The first was that Modi, stung by President Donald Trumpās imposition of steep tariffs on India exports to the U.S., was pivoting toward China: Trump had pushed an American friend into the arms of Americaās enemy. The second was that Modiās arrival in Tianjin signaled the emergence of a new global allianceāled by China, supported by Russia and Indiaāagainst the U.S.
My view: Both of these conclusions are too hasty, and fail to reckon with the cold economic and geopolitical reality that India canāt afford to cut ties with the U.S.
Now, thereās no gainsaying that Trumpās behavior toward India has been despicable. Thereās credible reporting to suggest that the U.S. presidentās imposition of 50% tariffs on Indian exports was in large part the product of spite.
Having falsely claimed credit for brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan earlier this year, Trump wanted Modi to publicly express gratitudeāand to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize. Pakistanās prime minister had done so, but Modi refused to play ball, infuriating Trump.
The tariffs, accompanied by scornful rhetoric from Trump about Indiaās ādead economy,ā made it hard for Modi to sustain a longstanding narrative that he had developed a special friendship with the American leader. For months, officials in New Delhi had been crowing that their prime minister was Trumpās main man in Asia, and that the U.S. regarded India as an essential bulwark against China.
Now, Trump has shown how little he cares for Modiāand for India.
It is reasonable to assume that Modi might not have gone to Tianjin if the tariff negotiations had gone differently. For one thing, he has long regarded Xi with suspicion bordering on hostility, and had refrained from visiting Indiaās giant neighbor to demonstrate unhappiness at Chinaās policies toward India. These include economic, military, and diplomatic support for Pakistan and aggressive claims on Indian territory, accompanied by land grabs and clashes along the border.
For another, Modi would not have relished having to rub shoulders with many of the other attendees, such as Pakistanās Shehbaz Sharif and Turkeyās Recep Tayyip Erdogan; the latter was recently denounced by New Delhi for taking sides with Islamabad during the India-Pakistan mini war in February. Most of the countries represented at the summit were represented by autocrats of one or other descriptionāsuch as Iranās Masoud Pezeshkian and Belarusās Aleksandr Lukashenko.
The presence of Indiaās prime minister provided some democratic gloss to this parade of pariahs. (Indonesiaās Prabowo Subianto was a late cancellation.) This served Xiās egoāmuch more than a Nobel nomination would have sated Trumpāsāas well as his geopolitical ambitions. It would have pleased Putin, too, since the Russian leader could claim to have brought the Asian giants closer.
In effect, Modi had gone from being Americaās main man to playing third banana at Chinaās banquet. No amount of mugging before the cameras in Tianjin could mask the comedown this represents.
But that doesnāt mean India is pivoting away from the U.S. in an eastwardly direction. The bald reality is that it simply canāt afford to do so.
Itās the economy, stupid. Indiaās exports to the U.S., closing in on $90 billion annually, far exceed its exports to all the members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, taken together. Xi and Putin can smile in Modiās general direction, but they canāt make up for the loss in export revenues that will result from Trumpās tariffs. China and Russia want to sell more to India, not buy more from it.
Itās also the geopolitics, stupid. For all the talk of the Chinese dragon and the Indian elephant joining in an embrace, the fact remains that Beijing views New Delhi as a rivalāmore like an uppity competitorāin need of occasional smackdowns. China will remain Pakistanās primary patron, and will continue to claim large swaths of Indian territory. Nor is India likely to walk away from military alliances with the U.S. and other Asian nations, alliances that Beijing regards as unfriendly but New Delhi views as existential.
For these reasons alone, Modi knows he cannot stray too far from Washingtonās orbit. He will need to find a face-saving way to make up with Trump: Indiaās economy and security depend on it.
