[🇺🇸] Is Israel's plan to draw the US into a war with Iran?

[Old School]

Source : https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-israel-war/

Avoiding such a war requires not only deft statesmanship in dealing tactically with crises but also a more strategic distancing from the odd relationship with Israel that has gotten the United States into its current difficult and dangerous situation. The United States needs to move away from time-worn notions of who is an ally and who is an adversary and to pay attention to who is an aggressor and who is not.
Despite frequent references in symmetrical terms to a "shadow war" between Iran and Israel, a compilation of events in that war shows an asymmetrical pattern of Israel initiating most of the violence and Iran mostly responding. For the United States to distance itself from this pattern would be not only in U.S. interests but also the interests of regional peace and security.

 

[Old School]

The CIA has warned Israel that within 48 hours Iran will give a military response to the destruction of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, Voxnews writes, citing Middle Eastern media.
According to the Al Mayadeen TV channel, Iran is planning a combined attack using a "rain" of unmanned aerial vehicles and missiles fired from its bases at strategic targets in Israel.
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[Old School]

A Little Background
Israel was recognized by the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) as a state in 1950. Turkey was the first Muslim state to officially recognize Israel. In addition, Iran became one of the countries participating in the UN Special Committee on Palestine, at the level of which it was decided to divide the disputed territories: they remained the cause of disagreements between the Palestinians and Israelis, amounting to war. Official Tehran opposed the proposed plan, as the Islamic Republic understood that such a decision would be the beginning of a war.
Until the end of the 1970s, namely until the Islamic Revolution, Israel maintained partnership and even allied relations with Iran. The states cooperated closely in various spheres, including the military.

[h2]Israel and Iran were allies[/h2]Allied relations between the two countries were formed on the basis of the historical past. As is known, the Jewish population lived on the territory of modern Iran for many years without conflicts and wars. After the beginning of the aggression against Jews in Iraq, many of them were forced to flee and found refuge in the Islamic Republic.

In addition, under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, it was Israel that served as a link between Iran and the United States of America. In short, Iran was considered a friendly state for the Israelis.

[h2]Iran Helped Israel[/h2]After the end of the Six-Day War, which Israel waged against the countries of the Arab coalition, the Islamic Republic became the only state that agreed to supply oil there. After the war, Israeli intelligence officers were trained in the Islamic Republic, and the countries began a joint project to develop nuclear missiles.

By the end of the 1970s, the partner state's debt to the Islamic Republic reached about $1 billion — it was about participating in joint projects, including an oil pipeline used to supply oil to European countries.

[h2]The End of Friendship Between Iran and Israel[/h2]Relations between the two countries began to change in the 1970s against the backdrop of changes in the political sphere. In 1975, Tehran ceased to support the Kurdish separatists, and relations between Egypt and the Islamic Republic began to return to normal. Against this background, the Middle Eastern state began to lose its strategic importance for Iran.

In the Islamic Republic, representatives of the clergy began to strengthen their positions, many of them openly called for the cessation of all relations with Israel. In 1979, the relationship was indeed terminated. The Israeli embassy in Tehran has closed.
[h2]Confrontation between Iran and Israel[/h2]
In 1991, Iraq was defeated in the Persian Gulf War, thereby ceasing to be a real threat to Iran. After the end of this war, the United States, and therefore Israel, began to pose a threat. It is worth noting that in the Islamic Republic, the state was already considered an ally of the United States of America.

Israel's political leaders have repeatedly stated that Iran is a danger to peace. The regime that was established in Iran was characterized there quite sharply and negatively.
[h2]Who does Iran support?[/h2]On the part of the Islamic Republic, fears were expressed that as a result of the end of the war, which was going on in the Persian Gulf, Israel could go for rapprochement with Arab countries. Tehran expressed its readiness to lead the movement against this state and oppose attempts to establish a corresponding regime. Soon, Iran began to support countries that were considered enemies of Israel, such as Syria, the Lebanese state, Yemen, and Palestine.
There are several organizations that are considered intermediaries for Iran, including Hezbollah and Hamas.

[h2]Why Iran Supported Hamas' Attack on Israel[/h2]For several years, Israel has been trying to rebuild lost ties with the Gulf states after the war. Obviously, these actions were taken, among other things, with the aim of deterring activity on the Iranian side as the actions of a rival in the sphere of regional influence.

In 2020, relations between the UAE and Bahrain stabilized with Israel. By that time, Saudi Arabia was already his partner, although the state did not advertise the existence of relations with this country. Thus, the state entered into a confrontation with the Islamic Republic in the Middle East. No attempts have been made to stabilize relations until recently, due to the existence of too serious contradictions. At the same time, both states do not have disputed territories or even borders, which allows us to talk about the confrontation as paradoxical.

On 7 October, Hamas officially announced Operation Storm Al-Aqsa, which it said was a response to "crimes against Palestinians". The Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem is considered a revered Islamic shrine. As part of the operation, the Gaza Strip was attacked. For its part, Israel has declared that the state is in a de facto state of war.
On October 7, 2023, the Iranian Foreign Minister congratulated the Palestinian people on the start of the "military operation" in Israel. Hamas was also supported by other political figures of the state. In particular, Rahim Safavi, adviser to the supreme leader of the state, noted that the country intends to support the Palestinians until the moment when Jerusalem and Palestine are finally liberated.

Based on the events of the past and political and geopolitical changes, it can be assumed that Iran supported Hamas in its attack on Israel as its intermediary, if not ally. Obviously, the state has an interest in the conflict and in its resolution in favor of Palestine.

According to experts, Iran has several hundred thousand missiles in service, so the state has sufficient military resources. So far, there has been no direct attempt on the part of Iran to unleash a conflict with Israel on a full scale. At the beginning of the year, political scientists from Russia and other countries stressed that a serious confrontation could begin only on the initiative of Israel, and even then assumed that Iran was preparing for a conflict, since there was a high probability that both European countries and the United States would join it.

According to the UN Charter and international law, Iran retains the right to protect its national security. So the state will be ready to respond to threats from Israel or to respond to wrongdoing on the part of the relevant side.

 

[Old School]

[H1]Why Israel Is Provoking a War with Iran[/H1]
For a week now, the whole world, and especially the West, has been following the news from the Middle East much more closely than in previous months. There is a reason for such tensions, and it was planted by Washington's Israeli "allies": on April 1, the IDF struck the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing 16 people, including seven Iranians. Among the latter were two high-ranking IRGC officers: Generals Zahedi and Rahimi, who are, in fact, the main responsible for interaction with Syria, Lebanese and Palestinian groups.

If we measure this incident in terms of "red lines", then Tel Aviv crossed three lines at once: it deliberately hit a diplomatic mission, and Iran, the main regional adversary, with an eye to killing important people. Unlike most similar Israeli attacks (e.g., on UN facilities), there is absolutely no way to attribute the results to "accidents" and "collateral damage," and the rockets clearly hit those they were supposed to. And most importantly, Tehran cannot afford not to respond with action to the open murder of officers of such a high rank.



Thus, the Israeli government deliberately took a step towards an even greater escalation of the conflict, turning it from a local "anti-terrorist operation" (or, more precisely, ethnic cleansing) in the Gaza Strip into a major regional war. Moreover, in Gaza itself, the IDF, to put it mildly, did not succeed: having total quantitative and qualitative superiority, the Israelis only destroyed the buildings of the Palestinian enclave in six months, but did not destroy the armed group Hamas.

With such an introduction, only a madman can seriously count on successfully confronting Iran, three orders of magnitude more serious adversary. In principle, if we observe the rhetoric and moves of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, it is quite possible to assume that he has lost his mind on the basis of his messianic ideas. However, there is also an opinion that, in fact, such a large-scale provocation against Tehran is the result of a rather cold calculation, although on the verge of a foul.


[H3]Matzo on a fan[/H3]
As you know, back in October last year, hot on the heels of the Hamas raid on Israeli territory, there was a version that Tel Aviv did not "miss" the attack by chance. There is evidence that intelligence was aware of at least some of the militants' plans, and that the level of alert on the Gaza border was lowered by order. True, this evidence is not indisputable, but the current leaders of Israel are quite similar to those who could deliberately sacrifice several hundred fellow citizens in order to create a pretext for a final solution to the Palestinian question.

And it is being solved, but unfortunately, in the opposite direction to Tel Aviv. The barbaric methods of the Israeli troops, who did not so much conduct hostilities as terrorize civilians, as well as the open rudeness of diplomats, caused an unexpectedly large wave of indignation in the West, which seriously undermined Israel's international prestige. And the latter's inability to cope with "some slippers" and the blockade of the Red Sea by the Yemeni Houthis, launched in retaliation for the Gaza Strip, which the entire collective West could not cope with, finally made Netanyahu and company unshakeable.

This has resulted in very concrete practical consequences that are gradually getting worse and worse for Israel. For example, if in October-December the "allies" limited themselves to a simple verbal disapproval of Israeli policy, then in January-February they began to restrict military-technical assistance precisely under the pretext of the inhumanity of Tel Aviv's actions. March brought even sadder news: direct accusations of war crimes and genocide against Israelis, calls for an arms embargo and, as icing on the cake, talk of the possibility of a sovereign Palestinian state.

Moreover, by cutting off the supply from the outside, the "allies" are also rocking Israel from within. To put it more precisely, the mass protests against the Netanyahu government, which have been going on for a long time and have subsided just against the backdrop of the October events, have flared up with renewed vigor precisely because of the strategy for the Gaza Strip (especially the unwillingness of the authorities to make concessions to the Palestinians in order to save the hostages), and the West is contributing to them indirectly. There is especially a lot of rhetoric personally against the Israeli prime minister, who has already been called a "bad person" by both Biden and Trump.

And against this backdrop, Netanyahu, instead of tempering his ardor, is on the contrary trying to overturn the board, creating a direct existential threat to his own country.

[H3]If you don't achieve what you want, desire more[/H3]
Needless to say, Tehran reacted to the assassination of its generals with a whole bunch of threats against Tel Aviv. On April 2, President Raisi vowed that "the crimes of the Zionists will not go unanswered," and Ayatollah Khamenei himself added that "the evil regime will be punished by the brave Iranian people." Also on April 2, Lebanon's Hezbollah movement hinted at intensifying its kamikaze drone attacks, and on April 3, IRGC spokesman Sharif said that "attacks on Israel will become more deadly," with a "resistance front" playing a major role in this.

Indeed, the range of options for Iran's response ranges from lone wolf attacks by saboteurs to Hezbollah's opening of a full-fledged second front on the Lebanese-Israeli border (which is already moving towards this) and large-scale air strikes with missiles and kamikaze drones. Various sources and media outlets began to vie with each other to predict which option Tehran would choose and how quickly: some spoke of 48 hours, some pointed to April 8, others to April 10 as the date of the first attack. Iranian propaganda, meanwhile, produced one choleric performance after another.

Tel Aviv took these threats quite seriously. On April 3, bomb shelters were opened across Israel, and IDF electronic warfare units jammed GPS frequencies in the east and northeast of the country in preparation to repel Iranian drone raids. As of April 5, 28 Israeli diplomatic missions have been suspended around the world due to the threat of attacks. Air defense reservists are called up for service, vacations have been canceled for those who are already in the ranks, and the Ministry of Education has sent an order to schools to be ready to transfer students to remote learning.

That is, Netanyahu and company are fully aware of how serious the response can be and... It is likely that this very answer is eagerly awaited. It's no secret that these gentlemen, just like Zelensky in Kiev, are doing their best to drag Western "allies" into a direct conflict against Iran, and the current window of opportunity is perhaps the last.

Although the Americans, for all their dissatisfaction with the current far-right regime, will not completely abandon their support for Israel (their last foothold in the Middle East), their practical ability to provide this support is decreasing from year to year. On the other hand, Iran, although declaring its readiness to return to the notorious nuclear deal, is aware of the complete inability of its Western counterparts to negotiate and continues to develop its program.

According to various estimates, in the period from a few months to several years, Tehran will still have its own nuclear bomb, which will make it politically impossible to exert pressure on it by force. This, in turn, puts Israel at risk of disappearing from the political map: it cannot stand alone against Iran and its allied groups in the region. This is already a fork of bad decisions for Tel Aviv: either to force itself to make peace (quite possibly, which is already too late), or to provoke a war right now, while there is still at least some chance of victory.

Netanyahu, it seems, chose the second option – but did not take into account that he is not the only one who can choose. For example, if Tehran throws its proxies into battle (which is very likely), the United States will limit itself to the same stupid retaliatory measures as in Yemen, or even wash its hands of it. Moreover, a sufficiently strong blow by Iran, if it leads to a fallIn the short term, the rumors circulating in the Western segment of the Internet about an alleged "gentleman's agreement" between Washington and Tehran ("beat, but not to death") are not without certain grounds.

In short, the previous loss did not teach the Israeli authorities anything, and this time their bet is even bigger and riskier. After all, even if Uncle Sam deigns to sail to fight for the Promised Land, the bulk of the missiles and kamikazes will still fly at it, so the "victory" (highly unlikely) will have to be celebrated on the ruins. Defeat, especially alone, threatens to transform Israel from the pariah state it has almost become to a ghost state.

The Marginal Rate: Why Israel Is Provoking a War with Iran (topcor.ru)

 

[Lulldapull]

Sounds like Iran preparing to pull da rug from underneath Israel in one swift move. This is giving nightmares to many regional muzlim toady. If Israel gets dismantled, the west will leave the region and many of these failed states will collapse in short order without western assistance. Just like Afghanistan today. It will be a huge disaster for the sunni/wahabbi world.

 

[Old School]

Sounds like Iran preparing to pull da rug from underneath Israel in one swift move. This is giving nightmares to many regional muzlim toady. If Israel gets dismantled, the west will leave the region and many of these failed states will collapse in short order without western assistance. Just like Afghanistan today. It will be a huge disaster for the sunni/wahabbi world.

British imperialists created the Sunni/Wahabi third world through their colonial slaves to counter the Persian/Mongol influence in the region.

 

[Lulldapull]

British imperialists created the Sunni/Wahabi third world through their colonial slaves to counter the Persian/Mongol influence in the region.

It’s fair to say that now the war is escalating. This does have the potential to unravel not just Israel but a whole bunch of muzlim toady failed states in the region. Iran should play this right or else millions will die, including our badbakht hanging by the skin of our teeth. It would be a disaster if Hormuz gets disrupted in a quit pro quo vs Israel’s existence. It would be a master stroke though…..no doubt. Imagine dismantling a dozen failed muzlim states in one fell swoop…. Crorron ghareebon nay bhooka murrna hae without oil n gas.

 

[Old School]

It’s fair to say that now the war is escalating. This does have the potential to unravel not just Israel but a whole bunch of muzlim toady failed states in the region. Iran should play this right or else millions will die, including our badbakht hanging by the skin of our teeth. It would be a disaster if Hormuz gets disrupted in a quit pro quo vs Israel’s existence. It would be a master stroke though…..no doubt. Imagine dismantling a dozen failed muzlim states in one fell swoop…. Crorron ghareebon nay bhooka murrna hae without oil n gas.

Nothing will happen to Hormuz. Why are some tribal people talking about Hormuz? Israel's lifeline is its Mediterranean coast, similar to the one of the Crusaders'.

 

[Lulldapull]

Nothing will happen to Hormuz. Why are some tribal people talking about Hormuz? Israel's lifeline is its Mediterranean coast, similar to the one of the Crusaders'.

Indians are scared to death now because their IMEC is kaput and that sinking feeling is overtaking them that their idol and sunshine Isra-heel aleh salam has been exposed as a joker……..just like when their world got smashed when talibunnies took Kabul without firing a single shot.…..
Aaaaahahahahaaaaa

 

[Old School]

Indians are scared to death now because their IMEC is kaput and that sinking feeling is overtaking them that their idol and sunshine Isra-heel aleh salam has been exposed as a joker……..just like when their world got smashed when talibunnies took Kabul without firing a single shot.…..
Aaaaahahahahaaaaa

It is very easy to see that whatever this British-installed Sunni/Wahabi axis does in the name of Islam, the results always benefit the same party they are claiming to fight against. Because of all the terrorist actions of the Western proxy Sunni/Wahabi axis, we now have Islamophobia all over the world. They have destroyed our Pakistan. What would have happened if Israel had a border with Iran instead of Syria or Any Arab convert? Very different, for sure.

 

[Lulldapull]

It is very easy to see that whatever this British-installed Sunni/Wahabi axis does in the name of Islam, the results always benefit the same party they are claiming to fight against. Because of all the terrorist actions of the Western proxy Sunni/Wahabi axis, we now have Islamophobia all over the world. They have destroyed our Pakistan. What would have happened if Israel had a border with Iran instead of Syria or Any Arab convert? Very different, for sure.

India's dreams of admiring and celebrating IMEC and Abraham accords have gone up in smoke in a giant funeral pyre! It's like a mass funeral pyre too and they are very upset with irani turani for doing this to them. .....I bet you money when Iran is on da verge of dismantling Israel, Modi will rush to Tehran upon receiving the green light from Washington with a sweet aass offer of trade, immediate injection of billions into chah bahar and resuming buying Irani oil n gas to the tune of $20 billion per year again. It will be a desperate move, but I believe it will be too little too late. Nothing puts a smile on my face until I see Indians suffering and dying. I hope Iran blocks hormuz and crash the indian economy. Millions of Indians will die within a few months. It will be awesome. Sunni/ Wahabbiyat is now a dead dog. Only India loves them now for economic/ proxy reasons. I wouldn't be surprised one bit if India takes up the job of financially running Sunni wahabbi terrorism from Sawdi Judea and Turkey upon US prodding.

 

[Old School]

India's dreams of admiring and celebrating IMEC and Abraham accords have gone up in smoke in a giant funeral pyre! It's like a mass funeral pyre too and they are very upset with irani turani for doing this to them. .....I bet you money when Iran is on da verge of dismantling Israel, Modi will rush to Tehran upon receiving the green light from Washington with a sweet aass offer of trade, immediate injection of billions into chah bahar and resuming buying Irani oil n gas to the tune of $20 billion per year again. It will be a desperate move, but I believe it will be too little too late. Nothing puts a smile on my face until I see Indians suffering and dying. I hope Iran blocks hormuz and crash the indian economy. Millions of Indians will die within a few months. It will be awesome. Sunni/ Wahabbiyat is now a dead dog. Only India loves them now for economic/ proxy reasons. I wouldn't be surprised one bit if India takes up the job of financially running Sunni wahabbi terrorism from Sawdi Judea and Turkey upon US prodding.

Do you read a post before replying, or have you prepared text with one added keyword to paste to just any post? I often notice that your replies have no connection with a quote you replied to.

 

[Old School]

Israeli Foreign Minister published a message in Persian

Translation: " If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will respond and attack in Iran"

 

[Lulldapull]

Do you read a post before replying, or have you prepared text with one added keyword to paste to just any post? I often notice that your replies have no connection with a quote you replied to.

Sunni/Wahabbiyat Israel and Daesh and Al-Qaeda…..all western proxies. And so is India too. India is a huge beneficiary of sunni wahabbiism. It exploits sunni wahabbiism and relishes the Islamophobia and demonizing of Islam in their own country and in the neighborhood. All Pakistani street interviews of our ghareeb awaam who are uneducated are being funded by India to mock Islam in our country. And the journalists are very careful to just interview the uneducated and ensure that the failure of Islam gets highlighted.

 

[Old School]

[H1]US Seeks to Cool Iran-Israel Strife As 'Imminent Attack' on Tel Aviv Looms – Report[/H1]
US Middle East Envoy Brett McGurk has urged the foreign ministers of Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to ask Iran "to lower tensions with Israel" after a deadly Israeli airstrike on Iran's embassy in Syria in early April, Reuters cited unnamed sources as saying.
McGurk asked the top diplomats to contact their Iranian colleague to convey the message, which they did, the sources added.
This comes after unnamed intelligence officials told Bloomberg News that the US and its allies believe that a "major missile or drone attack by Iran or its proxies on Israel is imminent."
US Seeks to Cool Iran-Israel Strife As 'Imminent Attack' on Tel Aviv Looms – Report

 

[Lulldapull]

Even our sarrak k jhaggay are getting cued in to da reality……..oh bhaaanchhh:

 

[Deleted due to Error (Muji Iqbal)]

Iran is no match for the powerful USA.

 

[4MikeEcho]

Iran is no match for the powerful USA.

You seem to be enamored by emotion.

USA 1-1 with Iran, sure no match. But US as a superpower has to choose who its most powerful enemies are and outmatch them militarily, geopolitically, and industrially. Iran is only relevant because of Israel. Full stop.

Its China that US is geared towards and will do everything it can to avoid an all out war with Iran that will take its away from its priority in China.