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Krishna with Flute
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G   Indian Defense
Krishna with Flute said:
@Bilal9 ,

India exported 51 lakh two wheelers, about 1 lakh trucks and 25 crore mobile last year.
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What you don't understand is that these are antiquated "has been" industries where margins are razor thin (value addition is slim to none for India) and where India will be surpassed by much-lower-cost producers like Bangladesh, Cambodia and African countries very soon.

India has no unique technical advantage producing these items. They could be produced anywhere, including Bangladesh.

Regardless these are good export numbers. India is becoming a major manufacturing nation, though mostly by assembly.

But becoming a manufacturing power is very, very different from becoming the world's manufacturing juggernaut, which is what China has been for over three decades.

The key difference is scale, breadth, and integration.

Here's a comparison:
SectorIndiaChina
Two-wheelers~5.1 million exported annuallyLargest producer globally, but domestic market dominates
Trucks~100,000 exportedProduces and exports several million commercial vehicles annually
Mobile phones~250 million exportedProduces hundreds of millions to over a billion phones yearly, plus components
Total manufacturing outputAround $500–600 billionOver $5 trillion

China's manufacturing output is roughly 8–10 times larger than India's and is completely independent from overseas inputs, the opposite of the Indian situation.

1. China manufactures almost everything​

India is competitive in:

  • Mobile phone assembly

  • Pharmaceuticals

  • Two-wheelers

  • Auto components

  • Steel

  • Chemicals

  • Textiles
China is competitive in all of those plus:

  • Semiconductors

  • Industrial robots

  • Machine tools

  • Shipbuilding

  • High-speed rail

  • Solar panels

  • Batteries

  • Consumer electronics

  • Home appliances

  • Heavy machinery

  • Construction equipment

  • Industrial chemicals

  • Precision manufacturing
That breadth matters because industries reinforce one another. Together - they comprise ecosystems which is where major profit lies.

2. China exports much higher-value products​

A $200 smartphone assembled in India may add only a tiny fraction of that value domestically if many components are imported from China.

China often manufactures:

  • displays

  • batteries

  • camera modules

  • connectors

  • circuit boards

  • chargers

  • packaging

  • production equipment
It captures much more of the value chain.

3. Chinese Supply chains are incredibly dense​

In places like Shenzhen, a factory can source nearly every component within hours.
In India, manufacturers often still import:

  • electronic components

  • semiconductor chips

  • specialized machinery

  • precision tooling
That increases costs and lead times.

4. Infrastructure still favors China​

China has:

  • larger port capacity

  • faster freight rail

  • more industrial parks

  • cheaper logistics

  • more reliable power in manufacturing hubs
India has improved with expressways, dedicated freight corridors, and port modernization, but there is still a gap.

5. Chinese Manufacturing productivity​

Chinese factories generally produce more output per worker because of:

  • greater automation

  • more advanced machinery

  • larger factory scale

  • decades of manufacturing experience
India is improving, but average productivity remains far lower.

6. China has a huge capital goods industry​

One of China's biggest advantages is that it builds the machines used to build other products.

For example, China manufactures:

  • CNC machines

  • industrial robots

  • textile machinery

  • electronics assembly equipment

  • packaging machinery
India still imports a significant share of advanced manufacturing equipment, most of it these days from China.

Why India's numbers are still significant​

The figures you quoted are important and they indicate meaningful progress:

  • Around 25 crore (250 million) mobile phone exports suggest India has become a major global electronics assembly hub (but still HEAVILY dependent on imported components, consumables and inputs from China).

  • 51 lakh (5.1 million) two-wheeler exports reflect competitiveness in affordable mobility but designs are still sourced from EU or East Asia. Indian innovation is still scarce and few/far between.

  • Truck exports show capability in commercial vehicle manufacturing, though on a much, much smaller scale than global leaders.
These sectors are growing rapidly but still dependent on domestic Indian market for profit.

Can India eventually rival China?​

Yes, but it would require sustained progress over many years. Key areas include:

  • expanding domestic component manufacturing

  • increasing automation and productivity

  • strengthening industrial supply chains

  • improving logistics and power infrastructure

  • investing in advanced manufacturing such as semiconductors, industrial machinery, and electronics components
India has advantages that could support this trajectory:

  • a large and growing domestic market

  • a relatively young workforce

  • rising foreign investment

  • companies diversifying supply chains beyond a single country

The question is less whether India can become a major manufacturing power—it maybe already is in several sectors—and more whether it can match the extraordinary scale China built over roughly 30 years. That remains a much larger challenge because China's manufacturing ecosystem is broader, deeper, and still several times larger in total output.
 
First of all, BD can never replace India.

Secondly, where did I claim that India's export surpass the export of china? What is important is the rapid and sharp rise in above sectors inspite of sanctions and other hurdles. Wherever we introduced our bikes, people preferred our bikes over others including that of China. Indian brands has become no 1 bike brand in almost whole of Africa and 160 Chinese companies have to shutdown and leave African countries after Indian bikes were launched in African countries. I have posted the threads on this as well.

Moreover, I have posted this several times. What is the ecosystem of mobile components in India. We have started Chip manufacturing as well. We have 3 plants operational making 3 bn Chips per months. 2 more are starting this year. We have designed 2 nm Chip.

We have put up world's biggest solar power plants which can produce many times more electricity than whole BD consumes. Adani and Ambani's solar power plant together shall save CO2 emissions equivalent to CO2 emissions produced 70 million cars.

Our car manufacturers are rapidly catching up and surpasses foreign car manufacturers. They have done this in India and they are doing it abroad. Extremely reliable, rugged and feature loaded cars are sold at half of the price of European and Japanese cars. Our trucks are gaining huge popularity because of their quality and fuel efficiency. Our Tarin sets and railway engines are rapidly become popular and exported to many nations.

Our defence stuffs have generated unprecedented interest and inquiries from many nations including European nations. We are producing on huge scales. Our scale and speed are unprecedented. Our development is holistic. We are building different from rest of the world.

Look at our new airport. Made of Bamboo, 0.6 million trees, waterfalls. We are producing something which does not exist anywhere.

 

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