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[🇧🇩] Indo-Bangla Relation: India's Regional Ambition, Geopolitical Reality, and Strategic Options For Bangladesh

[🇧🇩] Indo-Bangla Relation: India's Regional Ambition, Geopolitical Reality, and Strategic Options For Bangladesh
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India wants positive, constructive and forward-looking ties with Bangladesh: MEA


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Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) on Tuesday said India desires "positive, constructive and forward-looking" relations with Bangladesh based on mutuality of interests and reciprocity.

Responding to a number of questions at a biweekly briefing in New Delhi, MEA Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said their position on the press conference by former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in Delhi needs no repetition.

On the issue of extraditions, he said their consistent position has been that these requests are being examined as part of their established processes.​
 
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Don’t forget past, but don’t be stuck in it - move on: Dinesh Trivedi


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Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh on Tuesday night called on Bangladesh and India to move beyond their differences and work together to build a relationship based on “mutual and unconditional trust,” saying the aspirations of the two countries’ young generations should guide the future of bilateral ties.

“We need to get ourselves together. Move on. I’m not telling you to forget the past, but keep the past and sort out the differences of the past. But move on. Don’t get stagnant,” he said.

The High Commissioner made the remarks while addressing a reception hosted in honour of leading Bangladeshi business leaders and a visiting delegation of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) at The Westin Dhaka.

State Minister for Foreign Affairs Shama Obaed Islam and Director General Chandrajit Banerjee also spoke at the reception.

High Commissioner Trivedi said both Bangladesh and India are aspirational countries, with their young people looking for opportunities, prosperity and a better future.

“It’s aspirant Bangladesh and it’s aspirant India,” he said, stressing the need for the two countries to work together to create opportunities for the younger generation.

Referring to his arrival in Bangladesh, the High Commissioner said, “The day I came in, I just walked in. This is one of the symbols, I think, that we are together.”

High Commissioner Trivedi said the foundation of any long-lasting relationship is “mutual and unconditional trust”.

“Friends really understand each other’s issues, and we are not friends if we don’t understand,” he said.

Acknowledging that there are issues between the two neighbours, he said such differences can be resolved through engagement and dialogue.

“I can tell you I fully understand there are issues, but these issues can definitely be sorted out once the Prime Minister of Bangladesh (Tarique Rahman) and our Prime Minister Narendra Modi meet,” he said.

The Indian envoy also conveyed what he described as an assurance from Prime Minister Narendra Modi regarding a future visit by the Bangladesh Prime Minister to India.

“After meeting the Prime Minister here, I went straight to Delhi and had a great meeting with our Prime Minister. He (PM Modi) just mentioned one thing: we need to meet,” he said.

“You can tell them on my behalf that you have the Prime Minister of India’s assurance that when the Prime Minister of Bangladesh visits India, he will have such an honourable reception as he deserves,” he added, quoting the Indian Prime Minister.

The visit, Trivedi said, would be “a memorable visit” whose benefits would ultimately reach people and businesses on both sides.

Highlighting the importance of economic and people-to-people ties, the High Commissioner said the private sector has a crucial role in bridging differences between the two countries.

“No government in the world can provide everything. It always needs the private sector,” he said, expressing gratitude to business communities on both sides.

He identified people-to-people relations, employment, education and health as key areas where Bangladesh and India can deepen cooperation.

“People all over the world have a big role to play in bridging this gap,” he said, referring to the business community’s role in strengthening bilateral ties.

The High Commissioner said India’s “Neighbourhood First” policy reflects the importance New Delhi attaches to its relationship with Bangladesh.

“Why did he send me? For one simple reason: we have a lot of respect, we have a lot of affection and we have a lot of need with a neighbour. And our policy is Neighbourhood First,” he said.

Trivedi acknowledged that the two countries have gone through “hiccups” in their relationship, but said such difficulties should not undermine their longstanding bonds.

“We have all gone through hiccups here and then. I think that’s quite natural; that also happens in a family. But that doesn’t mean that we move away,” he said.

“We have shared history, we have shared culture, and this is where we need to foster,” Trivedi added.

The High Commissioner also praised Bangladesh’s Prime Minister, describing him as “a people’s person” and noting that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the first to congratulate him after his landslide electoral victory and the first to invite him to India.

He said the recent high-level engagements, including visits by India’s external affairs minister and speaker as well as his own posting in Dhaka, reflected India’s eagerness to strengthen ties.

“We are eagerly waiting and I’m so hopeful. There are issues, there is no doubt about it,” he said. At the same time, Trivedi said differences are natural in a vibrant democracy.

“If issues are not there, then it’s not democracy; it’s something other than democracy,” he said.

He said Indian officials have been working closely with Bangladesh’s ministers in recent weeks to address differences and understand the concerns of the Bangladeshi people.

“We deeply understand the concerns of brothers and sisters of Bangladesh,” he said, while stressing that the relationship should be viewed as “a partnership of equals”.

“These concerns can only be mitigated once you meet,” Trivedi said.

Turning to Bangladesh’s youth, the High Commissioner said the country’s new generation had gone through significant struggle and sacrifice and deserved an opportunity to achieve peace and prosperity.

“This is a new Bangladesh, and this new Bangladesh has the youth. And youth has also gone through a lot of struggle and a lot of sacrifice,” Trivedi said.

“Our objective obviously is to have peace and prosperity, and the youth must get that opportunity,” he added.

Trivedi said such opportunities could be created through closer cooperation between Bangladesh and India.

“Bangladesh First and we have the goals are same. There is just no difference,” he said.

Urging the business communities of both countries to join the journey of closer cooperation, the High Commissioner said, “Let’s have this journey together.”

Trivedi expressed hope that the relationship between Bangladesh and India would enter a new phase.

“This would be a golden chapter in the history of the relationship between India and Bangladesh, because we have a lot to share with you,” he said.

Trivedi referred to the shared cultural heritage of the two countries and called for a renewed “melody of relationship”.

“Let’s have this melody of relationship,” he said, expressing confidence that the relationship could become “golden” and long-lasting.

The high-level Indian business delegation from the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) is scheduled to leave Dhaka on Wednesday morning, an official told UNB.

Discussions during the visit focused on addressing issues of mutual interest and mutual benefit, identifying emerging areas of cooperation, and facilitating greater engagement between businesses of the two countries.

Both sides explored opportunities for greater economic and commercial cooperation between the two countries.

The delegation, led by Chandrajit Banerjee, Director General, CII, comprises 14 business leaders representing prominent Indian companies and institutions, including Bharat Biotech, Infravision Foundation, Godrej Industries, Arvind Limited, LMW Global, Mahindra Group, Larsen & Toubro (L&T), Forbes Marshall, Numaligarh Refinery Limited, Apollo Hospitals and Indian Oil Corporation, along with officials from the CII Secretariat.

During the visit, the delegation met senior members of the government of Bangladesh.​
 
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Narendra Modi stresses need for meeting with Tarique Rahman


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India’s prime minister Narendra Modi has stressed the need for a meeting with Bangladesh’s prime minister Tarique Rahman, saying direct engagement between the two leaders could help resolve outstanding differences and address the concerns of people in Bangladesh.

Indian high commissioner to Bangladesh Dinesh Trivedi said on Tuesday that Modi had conveyed the message after the envoy returned to New Delhi following a meeting with Rahman.

“After meeting the prime minister here, I went straight to Delhi, and I had a great meeting with our prime minister. He just mentioned one thing: we need to meet,” Trivedi said at a programme in Dhaka.

He quoted Modi as assuring that Rahman would receive a “honourable reception” during a visit to India and that the trip would be memorable, with the ultimate benefit going to people on both sides.

Trivedi said Modi viewed the proposed visit as the beginning of a “golden chapter” in relations between the two neighbours.

“We should not forget the past, but at the same time we should move on,” he said, conveying what he described as the Indian prime minister’s position.

The high commissioner said differences between the two countries were inevitable in a democratic relationship but should not prevent Dhaka and New Delhi from engaging with each other.

“If issues are not there, then it’s not democracy,” Trivedi said. “There are issues; there is no doubt about it.”

He said India had been working closely with Bangladesh’s ministers in recent weeks to address differences and build on areas of common interest.

Trivedi also sought to underline the importance of the two countries’ shared history and culture, saying India’s “neighbourhood first” policy meant that New Delhi wanted to maintain close relations with Bangladesh despite recent difficulties.

“We have all gone through hiccups here and then. I think that’s quite natural. That also happens in a family, but that doesn’t mean that we move away,” he said.

The envoy described Rahman as a “people’s person” and congratulated him on his landslide electoral victory. He noted that Modi had been the first foreign leader to congratulate Rahman and had invited him to visit India.

India’s external affairs minister and speaker had subsequently visited Bangladesh, Trivedi said, adding that New Delhi was now “eagerly waiting” for the prime ministerial visit.

He acknowledged that there were concerns on both sides but said these could be addressed through direct political engagement.

“This is a partnership of equals,” Trivedi said. “These concerns can only be mitigated once you meet.”

He also appealed to the younger generation in both countries to look towards the future, while acknowledging the sacrifices and struggles that had shaped the “new Bangladesh”.

“The foundation of any long-lasting relation is mutual and unconditional trust,” he said. “I fully understand there are issues, but these issues can definitely be sorted out.”

Bangladesh’s state minister for foreign affairs, Shama Obaid, meanwhile, called for a broader economic partnership with India, while acknowledging persistent structural imbalances in bilateral trade.

“India remains a major trading partner of Bangladesh in the region, and our bilateral trade has been growing significantly over the years,” she said.

But she noted that trade between the two countries remained “structurally imbalanced” and below its potential.

Obaid said Bangladesh should seek to expand trade, business and investment opportunities while making better use of regional frameworks including Saarc and Bimstec.

She urged Indian companies with established distribution networks to increase sourcing from Bangladesh, particularly in sectors where the country is already competitive, including ready-made garments, textiles, jute and jute products, leather and footwear, pharmaceuticals, agro-processing, ceramics, plastics and light engineering.

The minister also pointed to non-tariff barriers, standards and testing requirements as obstacles to the smoother movement of goods and services between the two countries.

She said she had discussed the concerns with Indian business leaders and assured them that Bangladesh would work to resolve practical obstacles to trade and investment.

“We want more vibrant trade and investment and communication between the two countries,” Obaid said.

The remarks came as Dhaka and New Delhi seek to reset bilateral relations after a period of tension, with both sides signalling that political engagement and greater economic cooperation could provide a way forward.​
 
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Dhaka eyes equally beneficial economic partnership with New Delhi: Shama Obaed

Shama Obaed Islam

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State Minister for Foreign Affairs Shama Obaed Islam has said Bangladesh wants to see an economic partnership with India that is "equally beneficial and brings tangible changes" to the lives of people.

"I am confident that the business communities of our two countries have both the vision and the capacity to make this happen. We can collectively identify practical solutions to the challenges," she said, noting that greater predictability and ease of doing business will benefit businesses in both countries.

The State Minister made the remarks while speaking at a reception on Tuesday night, UNB reports.

Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Dinesh Trivedi hosted the reception in honour of leading Bangladeshi business leaders and a delegation from the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII).

CII Director General Chandrajit Banerjee and Indian Deputy High Commissioner Pawan Badhe also spoke at the reception.

Shama Obaed held discussions with business leaders from India on Tuesday afternoon, during which they identified several issues.

"From my side, I have assured them that we will try our best to resolve those issues, and we want more vibrant trade, investment and communication between the two countries," she said, describing the meeting as productive and fruitful.

Investment Important Pillar

The State Minister said business visas for Bangladeshis should be issued more quickly so that businesspeople can travel to India more frequently.

"We want our businesses and private sectors to communicate with their counterparts in India more frequently," she said, noting that investment is an equally important pillar of the future economic relationship.

Bangladesh has offered Indian companies a large and growing domestic market, a substantial industrial workforce, competitive production capabilities, geographical proximity, and opportunities to connect with markets beyond Bangladesh.

"Our economic zones provide Indian companies with opportunities to establish dedicated manufacturing and export facilities. We would particularly welcome investments that bring technology, integrate local suppliers, and create employment. And, in the process, connect Bangladeshi products to regional and global value chains," Shama Obaed said.

Shama Obaed said the strength of the economic relationship between the two countries will ultimately be measured not only by government-to-government engagements and bilateral mechanisms but also by the contacts and partnerships that businesses establish with each other.

She said Bangladesh and India are geographically proximate, historically connected, and economically complementary.

"These advantages provide us with a strong foundation to build a more balanced, interdependent and mutually beneficial economic partnership, a partnership that may generate greater trade, investment, technology cooperation and integration of value chains, and expansion of markets," she said.

The State Minister said India remains a major trading partner of Bangladesh in the region and that bilateral trade has grown significantly over the years.

"Yet we must also acknowledge that bilateral trade remains structurally imbalanced and much lower than its actual potential."

The State Minister said their objective should be to expand the overall economic partnership, overcome challenges, and create greater opportunities for trade, business, and investment on both sides.

She sees an important role for the Indian business community, saying Indian companies with established distribution networks can increase sourcing from Bangladesh in areas where Bangladeshi industries are already competitive, including ready-made garments, textiles, jute and jute products, leather and footwear, pharmaceuticals, agro-processing, ceramics, plastics and light engineering.

"We also recognise that there are challenges in doing business arising from non-tariff barriers, standards and testing-related difficulties, procedural delays, and infrastructure constraints that affect the smooth movement of goods and services," she said.

Shama Obaed requested the Indian business community, particularly members of the CII, who have considerable influence in India, to share the experience and perspectives gained through this visit with the relevant authorities in India so that they can collectively identify practical solutions to the challenges.

Business Community's Role

Highlighting the importance of economic and people-to-people ties, High Commissioner Dinesh Trivedi said the private sector has a crucial role in bridging differences between the two countries.

"No government in the world can provide everything. It always needs the private sector," he said, expressing gratitude to business communities on both sides.

The envoy identified people-to-people relations, employment, education, and health as key areas where Bangladesh and India can deepen cooperation.

"People all over the world have a big role to play in bridging this gap," he said, referring to the business community's role in strengthening bilateral ties.

The High Commissioner said India’s "Neighbourhood First" policy reflects the importance New Delhi attaches to its relationship with Bangladesh.

Trivedi acknowledged that the two countries have gone through "hiccups" in their relationship, but said such difficulties should not undermine their longstanding bonds.

"We have all gone through hiccups here and there. I think that's quite natural; that also happens in a family. But that doesn't mean that we move away," he said.

"We deeply understand the concerns of brothers and sisters of Bangladesh," he said, while stressing that the relationship should be viewed as "a partnership of equals."

"This would be a golden chapter in the history of the relationship between India and Bangladesh because we have a lot to share with you," he said.

Trivedi referred to the shared cultural heritage of the two countries and called for a renewed "melody of relationship."

"Let's have this melody of relationship," he said, expressing confidence that the relationship could become "golden" and long-lasting.

The CII Director General said the warmth they received from the Bangladesh government and the country's industries was "just awesome, absolutely great."

"And this is something that we would like to live up to by creating more business opportunities," he said.

The high-level Indian business delegation from the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) left Dhaka on Wednesday morning, an official told UNB news agency.

Discussions during the visit focused on addressing issues of mutual interest and benefit, identifying emerging areas of cooperation, and facilitating greater engagement between businesses of the two countries.

Both sides explored opportunities for greater economic and commercial cooperation between the two countries.

The delegation, led by Chandrajit Banerjee, Director General, CII, comprised 14 business leaders representing prominent Indian companies and institutions, including Bharat Biotech, Infravision Foundation, Godrej Industries, Arvind Limited, LMW Global, Mahindra Group, Larsen & Toubro (L&T), Forbes Marshall, Numaligarh Refinery Limited, Apollo Hospitals and Indian Oil Corporation, along with officials from the CII Secretariat.

During the visit, the delegation met senior members of the Government of Bangladesh.​
 
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Bangladesh-India trade needs a boost


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Despite strained relations for more than the last two years, bilateral trade between Bangladesh and India is very much on, if not growing. The visit of a delegation from the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) last week signalled that businesses in both countries want to move ahead as far as trade is concerned. Business leaders of both countries have agreed to form business-to-business (B2B) task forces to address trade and investment barriers and strengthen bilateral economic ties. It is for the first time since the fall of Hasina's autocratic regime on August 5 2024, a high-level Indian business delegation visited Bangladesh.

CII is one of the premier apex trade bodies in India. Established in 1895 as the Engineering and Iron Trades Association (EITA) by five firms, it became CII in 1992. The CII delegation met senior ministers and policymakers of Bangladesh, as well as counterparts. To some observers, it is an effort to break the ice so that businesses of both countries can resume reciprocal exchanges and work together to remove trade barriers.

Since the ouster of Hasina regime in a student-led mass uprising two years ago, bilateral relations deteriorated significantly. New Delhi imposed several trade barriers during the Yunus-led interim regime. Dhaka also retaliated on a limited scale. India was reluctant to accept the changed reality in Bangladesh and began exerting various forms of pressure on the interim government. For example, India cancelled the transhipment facility granted to Bangladesh for third-country exports using Indian sea routes and airports. It also imposed restrictions on imports of certain products, including ready-made garments (RMG) from Bangladesh, primarily to India's north-eastern states via land routes. India has also moved to impose anti-dumping duties on more Bangladeshi products.

All the Indian moves to impose non-tariff barriers (NTBs) are mostly linked to the ouster of the Hasina regime, New Delhi's closest ally for more than 15 years. During that period, she gradually turned Bangladesh into a subservient country by compromising foreign and trade policies in favour of New Delhi. At the same time, anti-Indian sentiment intensified, which was a critical factor in the July mass uprising. To suppress the movement, the autocratic regime used brutal force, killing 1,400 people in three weeks. More than 20,000 were injured. Nevertheless, Hasina was forced to resign on August 5 2024 and flee to New Delhi for shelter. Since then, the two countries have passed through a series of diplomatic and trade rows.

Despite all these negative developments, bilateral trade in goods increased modestly in the last fiscal year (FY26) by 13 per cent after a small growth of 6.35 per cent in FY25. Official statistics showed bilateral trade reached its highest level of $15.68 billion in FY22, then dropped sharply by 26 per cent to $11.62 billion in FY23. It declined by a further 9 per cent to $10.60 billion in FY24. Thus, the decline in bilateral trade was evident before the July mass uprising.

Exports to India were almost stagnant at $1.76 billion in the last fiscal year, down from $1.77 billion in FY25. Imports from India jumped 15 per cent to $10.96 billion in FY26 from $9.47 billion in FY25, widening the trade gap with India to $9.20 billion from $7.70 billion.

The bilateral trade gap is nothing new, as Bangladesh imports more products from India as raw materials, intermediate goods, and consumer products. As the next-door neighbour with extensive road, rail, and water networks, sourcing from India is generally less expensive. For Indian exporters, Bangladesh is a lucrative market with increasing consumer demand, and it is the seventh-largest export destination for India.

Investment from India declined significantly, reflecting the strained bilateral relations. Net inflow of Indian FDI increased to $132.83 million in FY23 from $72.34 million in FY22, then declined to $105.81 million in FY24. During the first nine months of FY26, net FDI from India stood at $87.60 million. Bangladesh's internal condition was also not adequately supportive of foreign investment as the country had to allow the dust of July 2024 uprising to settle. In the context of CII delegation's visit, a few trade analysts [www.fashionunited.uk] pointed out that for Bangladesh the challenge is less about becoming cheaper than about remaining attractive enough to clothing manufacturers who will be willing to continue investing there. For India, it is about deciding whether its neighbour should remain primarily a deficit market or become more of an extension of its own textile industrial base.

As India stopped issuing tourist visas for almost two years, tourist arrivals from Bangladesh to India declined sharply. According to the Indian Tourism Ministry, about 2.12 million Bangladeshi tourists visited India in 2023. It declined by 17 per cent to 1.75 million in 2024 and dropped further by 73 per cent to 0.43 million in 2025, causing a significant loss of revenue for the Indian tourism industry. The tourist visa is finally opened two months back.

All these statistics show that the two countries are strongly linked economically. Disruption of this link by imposing trade restrictions will not work. Instead, it is better to accept the changed reality and enhance trade cooperation. India needs to respect the verdict of the people of Bangladesh and should not interfere in the latter's internal affairs. It must clearly acknowledge that no 'vassal state' type bilateral relationship is possible. Despite having strong leverage to put Bangladesh in geo-political trouble, it is not a good option for New Delhi to ignore the ground reality. There should be a win-win bilateral trade relationship.

India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF), an entity established by the Indian commerce and industry ministry, noted recently that bilateral ties 'today reflect a more mature and diversified partnership that goes well beyond conventional areas of engagement.' It added that though tourism, healthcare, and education continue to anchor people-centric cooperation, with Bangladesh remaining a key source of inbound tourists for India, bilateral collaboration is increasingly shaped by technology and sustainability-led priorities. To what extent this cooperation will be extended in the near future largely depends on New Delhi's goodwill.​
 
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