[🇱🇧] Lebanon - Israel Conflict -2024

[Ghazi52]

G7 leaders warn of 'uncontrollable escalation' in Middle East
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The leaders of the G7 have outlined their concern over the "deteriorating situation" in the Middle East.

The joint statement issued today read: "We, the leaders of the G7, express deep concern over the deteriorating situation in the Middle East and condemn in the strongest terms Iran's direct military attack against Israel, which constitutes a serious threat to regional stability."

The statement also reaffirmed the group's commitment to the security of Israel and condemned what it called Iran's "destabilising actions throughout the Middle East through terrorist proxies and armed groups".

Discussions to avoid escalation in the region have also taken place, the G7 leaders said, adding: " A dangerous cycle of attacks and retaliation risks fuelling uncontrollable escalation in the Middle East, which is in no-one's interest. Therefore, we call on all regional players to act responsibly and with restraint."

 

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What might happen next with conflict in the Middle East? 10 experts share their analysis​

BBC

On 1 October, Israel began a ground invasion of southern Lebanon. Shortly afterwards, Iran launched more than 180 missiles towards Israel.

With the war in Gaza still ongoing, fears of an all-out regional conflict in the Middle East remain high.

How big a danger is this threat of further escalation? For BBC InDepth, we asked a range of experts to share their analysis of why the conflict has escalated, and what might happen next.

Israel seems to have upgraded its goals from weakening Hezbollah to enforce a ceasefire deal that secures Israel’s north, to seeking to neutralise Hezbollah permanently. Despite inflicting huge losses on Hezbollah, Israel’s military campaign won’t make Hezbollah disappear.

It’s hard to know the difference between government rhetoric and what it will do on the ground. What they say they’re doing is removing the threat of Hezbollah to protect civilians in Northern Israel who live in sovereign territory and need to return after being displaced for a year as a result of ongoing rocket fire from Hezbollah, who joined the fight with Hamas after October 7. But this government also has religious forces setting forth, not a strategy, but a cosmic vision of conquest. And therefore we can’t rule out that there may be an expansionist ethos.

 

[Ghazi52]

Israel would like the Lebanese state to reassert authority over Hezbollah. This reminds me of the 1982 Israeli ground war in Lebanon against the Palestinian Liberation Organisation. That didn’t turn out so well in the long-term for Israeli citizens living near the Lebanese border. Israel in this case will need to focus on the short-term gain of calming the situation enough that its displaced 60,000 residents of northern Israel can return to their homes.

 

[Ghazi52]

Has this already started to redraw the map of the Middle East? If so, how?​

The balance of power in the Middle East is beginning to shift in a way that is weakening Iran’s influence in the region. But any such change in the status quo is a process that will take a long time to materialise.

It’s too soon to reach that conclusion, but what’s certain is the Iran-led axis is reeling and Israel seems to have achieved some significant tactical gains. Whether it can translate those to strategic gains through diplomacy remains to be seen.

Not the map, but the power balance for sure. For the past 20 years, Iran and its proxies (Hamas and Hezbollah) on one side and Israel on the other have held each other to a draw, meaning there was mutual deterrence. That was shattered on 7 October, and Israel is trying to get the upper hand.

 

[Ghazi52]

It’s too soon to tell. My feeling is, talk to me in two weeks or talk to me in a year and we will know if there’s been a re-occupation of Southern Lebanon… At the same time, you have the conflict with Iran, but I don’t think they’re trying to redraw the borders in the Middle East.

 

[Ghazi52]

What does this mean for nuclear enrichment or the prospect of nuclear weapons in Iran?​

The fact that Iran has clearly lost Hamas and Hezbollah as effective deterrents means that an increasing number of figures in the Iranian establishment are going to want to develop a nuclear weapon.

However, what does this mean in practice? And when will Israel find out? Israeli intelligence is pretty good in Iran - if Iran does start building a weapon, will Israel find out next week? If Iran goes ahead with this, it enters a very risky area. But as things stand, Iran’s conventional military capabilities are a joke compared to Israel’s, so it has relied on non-traditional means such as militias - which have proved to be of little use.

The nuclear ambition in Iran is a concern for Israel for obvious reasons. Anti-Israel animus remains central to the regime. For Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the project to destroy Israel is the oldest and most central demand. It’s the only project he’s been able to advance towards, and the only thing the Islamic Republic is a leader in is the anti-Israel project - it’s the only state in the world that shoots at Israel.

However, there is a more pragmatic element within the Iranian political establishment, which often gets forgotten, and which believes Iran has no business fighting the Palestinian war for the Palestinians.

Iran will do whatever it takes to secure its nuclear programme. It will perceive an Israeli attack on its nuclear programme as an existential threat.

It may be that in the Iranian perception, the only thing they’ve got left that could potentially genuinely be a game-changer, is to go nuclear. I don’t know what exactly that might mean – maybe they have a capability already, and they could demonstrate it by conducting a nuclear test in the desert somewhere.

 

[Ghazi52]

Does the spreading of conflict make it harder for Israel to achieve its aims in Gaza?​

Israel’s widening campaign is sowing increasing anger among the populations in the Middle East who are sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. This makes achieving peace in the future harder.

Certainly, a larger war will spread Israel thin, especially when it has yet to achieve the eradication of Hamas in Gaza. However, Israel continues to have the military support of the United States.

Israel has been fighting in Gaza for a year and there has been major destruction of Hamas brigades and a severe loss of fighters. The biggest problem for achieving its aims in Gaza is that Israel has no vision for an alternative governing force. The problem isn’t that Israeli forces are being spread thin, but that Israel needs a political strategy for a government framework that leads to Palestinian self-determination and has international and Palestinian buy-in. Without that, Gaza will be a constant threat and a constant military drain.

 

[Ghazi52]

Israel cannot achieve its aims in Gaza because it doesn’t have a political aim – it never did, and it went to war without one. And this will potentially be its Achilles’ heel. But Netanyahu probably doesn’t feel like he needs to seek any kind of political outcome because he can go to endless war, and yet still have much of the Western world on his side.

 

[Ghazi52]

Will whoever wins the US election in November be able to exert any influence over the Israeli military operation?​

Any American president can exert influence on Benjamin Netanyahu if he or she wants to. But none of them have thought it beneficial. Kamala Harris has less long-term baggage than Joe Biden in terms of wanting to give unconditional levels of support to Israel, but her party is internally divided - on one side there is strong support for Israel and on the other side, some are calling for an arms embargo. Those are a minority, but the Democratic voices calling to constrain Israel somehow are growing significantly. Trump is a wildcard. He talks big, but he doesn’t like America being dragged into wars.

I think Donald Trump might exert more influence than Kamala Harris. He is more pro-Netanyahu, or at least pro-right-wing Israel, but he’s very much against dragging the US into war.

Any US administration that is providing $10bn (£7.6bn) to help Israel’s military operations will have leverage, especially as Israel’s economy is suffering. The question is whether there is any US politician in a position of real authority who is willing to absorb the political cost domestically of using that leverage. At present there is not in either party. There is no Ronald Reagan or George HW Bush in prospect.

 

[Ghazi52]

What are the potential ways wider conflict could be averted?​

They’re harder to pinpoint with every missile fired or air strike launched.

I am very pessimistic about the prospects of de-escalation… most likely the perception within the Israel Defence Forces and at the political level within Netanayhu's war cabinet is that they have the momentum. In warfare, when one side believes it has the momentum against its adversary, you don't want to give it up, because you can continue to put pressure on your enemy.

This conflict will not be won militarily by any actor involved. Ultimately, diplomacy is the only way towards stability.

 

[Ghazi52]

There are two obvious off-ramps. The first is for Israel to accept a ceasefire in Gaza that will pull back forces to agreed locations so that humanitarian aid can move and that allows for a new Palestinian governing authority that Palestinians, not Israelis or Americans, will choose. The second is for a ceasefire in Lebanon that will see Hezbollah cease rocket/missile attacks on Israel in return for Israel halting its airstrikes and ground incursions.

I don’t think Netanyahu is looking for off-ramps. But the one potential off-ramp is if there were major concessions from Iran, a major turnaround in Iranian policy, starting with the nuclear programme but including the support for Hezbollah and Hamas. I can’t imagine it happening, but that would be an off-ramp.

 

[Ghazi52]

In Lebanon, the off-ramp is for a ceasefire and an agreement on new security arrangements in the south. I don’t think this option is available before the end of this year and while we’re awaiting a new US administration.

There are no off-ramps here unless the US and other major Western governments make it their business to change the direction of events on the ground in the Middle East.

Dahlia photo credit: Oren Ziv

 

[Ghazi52]

Israeli military says about 20 projectiles fired from Lebanon into Israel​

From CNN’s Tamar Michaelis and Lucas Lilieholm

Iron Dome intercepts rocket attack on Israel’s Haifa on Friday morning.
Reuters

The Israeli military said nearly two dozen projectiles were identified crossing into Israeli territory from Lebanon after sirens sounded in the northern city of Haifa and the Galilee region.

Reuters video showed rockets being intercepted by Israel’s defense systems over the Haifa skyline around sunrise Friday morning.

The Israel Defense Forces said about 20 projectiles were identified after sirens sounded between 7:01 a.m. and 7:04 a.m. local time in the Haifa Bay and Western Galilee areas. Most were intercepted and “the rest fell in open areas,” it said.

Israel Police said some interception shrapnel fell in the area, mostly in Kiryat Yam, just north of Haifa. Property was damaged, but no injuries reported.

“Multiple projectiles” were also identified crossing from Lebanon after sirens sounded at 7:23 a.m. local time in the Upper Galilee area, the military said.

“Some of the projectiles were successfully intercepted and the rest fell in open areas,” it said.

The extent of the impact is unclear.

 

[Ghazi52]

Here are the latest developments in the region:

• Strikes across Lebanon: The Israeli military said Thursday it had hit Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters in Beirut. Across Lebanon, at least 37 people were killed and 151 wounded by Israeli strikes on Thursday, the Lebanese health ministry said.
• Evacuations: Israel has issued evacuation orders for more villages in southern Lebanon, signaling a broadening of its ground incursion. The villages are in areas that now extend deeper into Lebanon, reaching up to 45 kilometers (28 miles) inside the country.
• Fleeing to Syria: Around 160,000 people have crossed the border from Lebanon to Syria since the escalation of hostilities in Lebanon last month, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said Thursday.
• Bracing for retaliation: The Middle East is bracing for Israel’s response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack earlier this week. Growing escalations on multiple fronts have put the region on the precipice as the first anniversary of Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel draws nearer.
• West Bank strikes: Israel said one of its airstrikes killed the leader of the Hamas network in the Tulkarem area in the West Bank, Zahi Yaser Abd al-Razeq Oufi, on Thursday. Hamas condemned the attack, but did not confirm if Oufi was killed.
• Gaza death toll rises: Israeli airstrikes on the territory killed 99 people and wounded 169 on Thursday, according to the Health Ministry in Gaza. The total death toll since October 7 has risen to 41,788, the ministry said.

 

[Ghazi52]

Israel says Hezbollah launched about 230 projectiles from Lebanon on Thursday​

From CNN's Mohammed Tawfeeq, Eugenia Yosef and Nechirvan Mando

Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system operates for interceptions as rockets are launched from Lebanon towards Israe, as seen from Haifa, Israel, on Thursday, October 3.
Ammar Awad/Reuters

Israel accused Hezbollah of launching approximately 230 projectiles from Lebanon into Israeli territory on Thursday.

Hezbollah, meanwhile, claimed to have carried out 32 varied attacks throughout the day, including rocket salvos on Israeli settlements and military bases and attacks on Israeli soldiers carrying out ground operations in southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah was not the only Iran-backed group to have claimed to have attacked Israel on Thursday. In a separate incident, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of several Iran-backed militias, claimed responsibility for a drone attack in southern Israel.

The Israeli military said it intercepted a drone over southern Israel and no one was inju

 

[Ghazi52]

Israel's daily aerial assault on Lebanon more intense than most years of US' 20-year war in Afghanistan​

From CNN's Kara Fox

Smoke billows from an Israeli airstrike in Khiam, Lebanon, on October 3.
AFP via Getty Images

Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon is heavier than the height of the United States’ fight against ISIS, data from a conflict monitoring group shows.

Israel has pummeled Lebanon with an unprecedented airstrike campaign in less than three weeks, killing more than 1,400 people, injuring nearly 7,500 others and displacing more than one million people from their homes, according to the Lebanese health ministry.

To put that into context, over the course of two days, on September 24 and September 25, the Israel military said it used 2,000 munitions and carried out 3,000 strikes.

In comparison, for most of America’s 20-year war in Afghanistan, the US carried out less than 3,000 strikes a year, barring the first year of the invasion, where around 6,500 strikes were carried out, according to data from Airwars analyzed by CNN.

Israel’s bombardment, which Israel says is targeting Hezbollah strongholds in the country, marks the world’s “most intense aerial campaign” outside of Gaza in the last two decades, Airwars said.

The majority of the fire exchanged between Israel and Hezbollah since the start of the war has come from Israeli strikes, drones, shelling and missiles on Lebanese territory, according to data from ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data), an organization that collects data on violent conflict.

Israel has launched nearly 9,000 attacks into Lebanon since October 8 and Hezbollah launched 1,500 attacks in that same time frame, according to the ACLED data.

 

[Ghazi52]

Israel warns it will take "appropriate measures" against any rescue vehicle used by Hezbollah​

From CNN's Hamdi Alkhshali and Louis Leeson

The Israeli military urged medical teams in Lebanon to avoid cooperating with Hezbollah, warning that it would take “appropriate measures” if their rescue vehicles are used by the militant group.

The Israel Defense Forces has accused Hezbollah of “exploiting” such rescue vehicles to transport what it described as terrorists and weapons.

“Any vehicle proven to be used by an armed terrorist for terrorist purposes, regardless of its type, will be subject to appropriate measures to prevent its military use,” IDF spokesperson Avichay Adraee warned.

 

[Ghazi52]

Most weapon smuggling does not take place through the crossing Israel struck, Lebanese minister says​

From CNN's Mitchell McCluskey


Lebanon’s Minister of Economy and Trade said most weapon smuggling does not take place through the Masnaa border crossing with Syria, which Israel struck on Thursday.

The Israel Defense Forces said it hit an “underground tunnel crossing” at that location to prevent weapons from being smuggled into Lebanon. Amin Salam told CNN’s Isa Soares on Friday that Lebanon intends to inspect the site after the rubble is cleared but that most smuggling takes place through illegal channels rather than the official entry point at Masnaa.

“Smuggling weapons into Lebanon or smuggling anything inside or outside Lebanon mostly is not done through this channel. Mostly it is done through illegal channels, illegal roads, in Lebanon that are not like this one,” he said.

The Masnaa border crossing lies in the Bekaa Valley on the Beirut-Damascus international highway, a major transport link for people and goods between Lebanon and Syria. Tens of thousands of people have used the highway to flee Israeli bombardment in recent days.

 

[Ghazi52]

Hezbollah has yet to decide when and where to bury Nasrallah, source says​

From CNN's Tamara Qiblawi in Beirut

Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah gives a televised address in Lebanon on September 19.
Al-Manar TV/Reuters


Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah last Friday has driven the Iran-backed group even deeper underground. A successor has not yet been named. And perhaps most unusually, a funeral — at least a public one — has not yet been held.

Why this matters:
According to Islamic norms, the dead must be laid to rest at the soonest opportunity, normally within 24 hours. That is especially true for Muslims slain by an enemy state. Questions swirled and reports emerged on Friday morning that the late leader had been buried in secret. But a source close to Hezbollah told CNN this was not true. “Nothing has been decided,” the source said, about the time and place of the burial.

Coupled with the lack of a clear successor, this has shrouded the group in more secrecy. For a week, Hezbollah’s public statements have been cursory at best. This strikes a sharp contrast with the Iran-backed Shia group’s practice of shoring up community support with public gatherings, and Nasrallah’s long and rousing speeches.

 

[Ghazi52]

More background:
On Friday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei commemorated Nasrallah in Friday prayers, which, in a rare move, he led. Yet there was no public gathering to mark this in Lebanon.

There are security reasons for that, as well as for the lack of a public funeral. Israel’s intensive bombing campaign has battered many Shia-majority neighborhoods and towns, so there is no conceivably safe place to hold it.

Israel’s airstrikes have decimated its command and control and have also killed a large number of civilians, according to the Ministry of Health, and displaced over a million. More than 100 children have been killed in Israeli strikes in the last 11 days alone, according to UNICEF.

Still, this all underscores the fact that this is a very different war. During the last all-out war with Israel in 2006, Nasrallah gave televised speeches nearly every day. The leadership is operating more clandestinely than ever before, after having been confronted by the most extensive Israeli infiltration of its ranks in its history.