[🇱🇧] Lebanon - Israel Conflict -2024

[Ghazi52]

Countries prepare for possible evacuations from Lebanon​

From CNN's Alex Stambaugh

A flight takes off from Beirut airport on October 2, 2024 in Beirut, Lebanon.
Carl Court/Getty Images

Several countries are ramping up efforts to evacuate their nationals from Lebanon and urging those remaining to leave amid the escalating situation as Israel wages a ground offensive in the south of the country.

While no country has launched a large-scale military evacuation yet, some governments have organized charter flights and others have helped secure seats on commercial flights out of Lebanon, with many looking to Cyprus and Turkey as transit points.

Here’s a look at what some countries have done:

• United States: Dozens of US troops have been deployed to Cyprus in preparation for a range of contingencies including evacuating US citizens from Lebanon should a full-blown war erupt, US officials told CNN. Since August, the US has urged its nationals to leave Lebanon immediately.
• United Kingdom: In preparation for a possible evacuation of UK nationals from Lebanon, about 700 extra troops have been deployed to Cyprus, where the British military already has several hundred military personnel stationed at two bases. It also has two warships in the region and organized a charter flight from Lebanon’s capital Beirut Wednesday for nationals and their dependents.
• France: A French army spokesperson said Tuesday a helicopter carrier will arrive in the eastern Mediterranean in case Paris decides to evacuate its nationals from Lebanon, Reuters reported. Its contingency plans center on Cyprus and Beirut airport, while it is also discussing evacuations via Turkey, the news agency said.
• Australia: An additional 500 seats have been secured for Australians, permanent residents and their family members on commercial flights departing Saturday for Cyprus, Foreign Minister Penny Wong said Thursday, after seats on several flights were organized earlier this week. An Australian Defence Force aircraft has been positioned in Cyprus to aid with contingency arrangements.
• China: More than 200 Chinese nationals have been evacuated from Lebanon, including about 80 people on a ship that arrived in Cyprus on Tuesday, according to state-run news agency Xinhua. More than 140 Chinese citizens and their families were on a chartered flight that arrived in Beijing on Wednesday, Xinhua added.
• Canada: Ottawa announced earlier this week it had secured an additional 800 seats on commercial flights leaving Lebanon for Canadians and their families. The country’s global affairs minister told CNN affiliate CBC News that if an evacuation becomes necessary, Canada has agreements with Cyprus, Greece and Turkey, and is working with the US, Australia and France to “make sure we adapt our evacuation plans together.”
• Spain, the Netherlands, South Korea and several other countries are deploying military aircraft to Lebanon to bring home their nationals.

 

[Ghazi52]

Israeli offensive in Lebanon is "destroying the country," Lebanese minister tells CNN​

From CNN's Niamh Kennedy in London and staff in Abu Dhabi

Lebanese Economy Minister Amin Salam participates in an interview with Reuters in Beirut, Lebanon, in 2022.
Mohamed Azakir/Reuters/File

Israel’s offensive in Lebanon is “destroying the country,” Lebanese Economy Minister Amin Salam told CNN.

Salam condemned Thursday morning’s strike on central Beirut, the first in that part of the city since 2006, highlighting how Israel is striking increasingly close to civilian areas.

“This has gone far and beyond what happened in 2006,” Salam told CNN’s Eleni Giokos, pointing out that the strike was carried out less than two miles from the Government Palace.

Salam warned that the displacement of over 1 million Lebanese and Syrian people from Lebanon will be a “long-term issue” for the government to manage, even if a ceasefire went into effect.

“We have hospitals filled with people, schools filled with people, people sleeping on the street, and this war keeps going. The way I see it is that this war has no goal. It’s just destroying the country,” Salam said.

“We need to rebuild their towns, their villages. We need to provide peaceful conditions for them. So, we are really in a very complicated operation now to take care of all those people,” the minister added.

 

[Ghazi52]

A dangerous Middle East crisis​

It’s hard to imagine a more unwelcome intangible a few weeks from an election than a security crisis in the Middle East, a region that has confounded American presidents for decades.

Following Israel’s ground offensive in Lebanon and its assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, the region has been on even more of a knife-edge after months of Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, which followed the October 7 Hamas terror attacks. The US and its allies helped repel Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel this week, but attention has now shifted to Israel’s response following Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s warning to Tehran that nowhere is out of reach from Israeli forces.

Netanyahu’s supporters in Israel and the United States are urging him to take advantage of a moment of weakness for the Islamic Republic after Israeli forces’ success in taking out key leaders of Iranian proxy groups. Netanyahu raised expectations of another escalation by warning that Iran made a big mistake with its reprisal attacks and “will pay for it.”

But Biden on Wednesday took the highly unusual step of publicly warning Israel against any attempt to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. “The answer is no,” he said when questioned about such a potential operation, and said the US would be discussing with the Israelis about how they might respond.

But Biden’s problem is that Netanyahu has acquired a taste for ignoring US concerns about his actions in Gaza and Lebanon. This has damaged the administration’s authority. But the Israeli leader has also acted with the expectation that Washington will be forced to come to Israel’s defense in any case.

There’s also a significant political dimension to the worsening tensions. Trump and his allies are egging Netanyahu on — both because of ideological synergy with his far-right government and also perhaps because a sense of growing crisis could boost the former president’s hopes of winning a non-consecutive second term. And Israel’s military moves, which have led to thousands of civilian casualties in Gaza and Lebanon, also threaten to widen splits in the Democratic Party over the failure of Harris and Biden to restrain Netanyahu. Some community leaders, for example, warn of depressed progressive and Arab American turnout in key swing states, including Michigan, next month.

 

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It's unclear how long Israel's ground incursions in Lebanon will last, State Department says​

State Department Spokesperson Matt Miller speaks to the media during a briefing on Thursday, October 3.

The United States and Israel have had discussions about what comes after Israel’s incursions in Lebanon, but it’s not clear how long the military actions on the ground will last, according to the State Department.

“I’m not going to prejudge what’s going to happen. We don’t know what’s going to happen. Dare I say, the Israelis probably don’t know what’s going to happen at this point,” said Matt Miller, State Department spokesperson. “We’re going to watch as this unfolds, and we’ll make our assessments in real time.”

Miller would not say if the Israelis have an end game for the conflict in the north, as they ramp up cross-border incursions and Beirut strikes against Hezbollah.

“The Israelis will have to speak to that question, not me,” he said.

Despite Miller’s vague answers when it comes to any clarity US officials have received about Israel’s military operations against Hezbollah, the spokesperson said for now, the US is fully supportive of Israel’s efforts to target Hezbollah with “targeted objectives” aimed at the militant group’s infrastructure.

“We want to see a diplomatic resolution, but we do want to see Hezbollah’s capabilities degraded,” Miller said

 

[Ghazi52]

Israel will continue to strike Hezbollah targets in Beirut, military chief says​

From CNN’s Rob Picheta and Eugenia Yosef

The Israeli military said it is going to continue striking Hezbollah targets in Beirut, the Bekaa valley and southern Lebanon.

Herzi Halevi, the chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, said in a video message Thursday that the military is “determined to destroy” Hezbollah infrastructure near the Lebanese border and will continue to inflict damage against the militant group.

Halevi said returning residents near the border to their homes “means destroying the terrorist infrastructure that Hezbollah has built near the border so they could raid our communities and kill Israeli civilians when given the order.”

“We are very determined to destroy this infrastructure and eliminate anyone present there. We will not allow Hezbollah to establish itself in these places,” the military chief said.

Israel has accused Hezbollah of embedding weapons facilities beneath residential buildings in Beirut, while Israeli political leaders have become increasingly defiant of international calls for restraint and outrage over growing civilian casualties in Lebanon and Gaza.

Halevi said in his video message that Israeli troops “are more prepared and trained than ever, bearing the experience from the operations in Gaza, and their advantage in the combat arena is clear.”

 

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G7 leaders warn of 'uncontrollable escalation' in Middle East
​

The leaders of the G7 have outlined their concern over the "deteriorating situation" in the Middle East.

The joint statement issued today read: "We, the leaders of the G7, express deep concern over the deteriorating situation in the Middle East and condemn in the strongest terms Iran's direct military attack against Israel, which constitutes a serious threat to regional stability."

The statement also reaffirmed the group's commitment to the security of Israel and condemned what it called Iran's "destabilising actions throughout the Middle East through terrorist proxies and armed groups".

Discussions to avoid escalation in the region have also taken place, the G7 leaders said, adding: " A dangerous cycle of attacks and retaliation risks fuelling uncontrollable escalation in the Middle East, which is in no-one's interest. Therefore, we call on all regional players to act responsibly and with restraint."

 

[Ghazi52]

What might happen next with conflict in the Middle East? 10 experts share their analysis​

BBC

On 1 October, Israel began a ground invasion of southern Lebanon. Shortly afterwards, Iran launched more than 180 missiles towards Israel.

With the war in Gaza still ongoing, fears of an all-out regional conflict in the Middle East remain high.

How big a danger is this threat of further escalation? For BBC InDepth, we asked a range of experts to share their analysis of why the conflict has escalated, and what might happen next.

Israel seems to have upgraded its goals from weakening Hezbollah to enforce a ceasefire deal that secures Israel’s north, to seeking to neutralise Hezbollah permanently. Despite inflicting huge losses on Hezbollah, Israel’s military campaign won’t make Hezbollah disappear.

It’s hard to know the difference between government rhetoric and what it will do on the ground. What they say they’re doing is removing the threat of Hezbollah to protect civilians in Northern Israel who live in sovereign territory and need to return after being displaced for a year as a result of ongoing rocket fire from Hezbollah, who joined the fight with Hamas after October 7. But this government also has religious forces setting forth, not a strategy, but a cosmic vision of conquest. And therefore we can’t rule out that there may be an expansionist ethos.

 

[Ghazi52]

Israel would like the Lebanese state to reassert authority over Hezbollah. This reminds me of the 1982 Israeli ground war in Lebanon against the Palestinian Liberation Organisation. That didn’t turn out so well in the long-term for Israeli citizens living near the Lebanese border. Israel in this case will need to focus on the short-term gain of calming the situation enough that its displaced 60,000 residents of northern Israel can return to their homes.

 

[Ghazi52]

Has this already started to redraw the map of the Middle East? If so, how?​

The balance of power in the Middle East is beginning to shift in a way that is weakening Iran’s influence in the region. But any such change in the status quo is a process that will take a long time to materialise.

It’s too soon to reach that conclusion, but what’s certain is the Iran-led axis is reeling and Israel seems to have achieved some significant tactical gains. Whether it can translate those to strategic gains through diplomacy remains to be seen.

Not the map, but the power balance for sure. For the past 20 years, Iran and its proxies (Hamas and Hezbollah) on one side and Israel on the other have held each other to a draw, meaning there was mutual deterrence. That was shattered on 7 October, and Israel is trying to get the upper hand.

 

[Ghazi52]

It’s too soon to tell. My feeling is, talk to me in two weeks or talk to me in a year and we will know if there’s been a re-occupation of Southern Lebanon… At the same time, you have the conflict with Iran, but I don’t think they’re trying to redraw the borders in the Middle East.

 

[Ghazi52]

What does this mean for nuclear enrichment or the prospect of nuclear weapons in Iran?​

The fact that Iran has clearly lost Hamas and Hezbollah as effective deterrents means that an increasing number of figures in the Iranian establishment are going to want to develop a nuclear weapon.

However, what does this mean in practice? And when will Israel find out? Israeli intelligence is pretty good in Iran - if Iran does start building a weapon, will Israel find out next week? If Iran goes ahead with this, it enters a very risky area. But as things stand, Iran’s conventional military capabilities are a joke compared to Israel’s, so it has relied on non-traditional means such as militias - which have proved to be of little use.

The nuclear ambition in Iran is a concern for Israel for obvious reasons. Anti-Israel animus remains central to the regime. For Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the project to destroy Israel is the oldest and most central demand. It’s the only project he’s been able to advance towards, and the only thing the Islamic Republic is a leader in is the anti-Israel project - it’s the only state in the world that shoots at Israel.

However, there is a more pragmatic element within the Iranian political establishment, which often gets forgotten, and which believes Iran has no business fighting the Palestinian war for the Palestinians.

Iran will do whatever it takes to secure its nuclear programme. It will perceive an Israeli attack on its nuclear programme as an existential threat.

It may be that in the Iranian perception, the only thing they’ve got left that could potentially genuinely be a game-changer, is to go nuclear. I don’t know what exactly that might mean – maybe they have a capability already, and they could demonstrate it by conducting a nuclear test in the desert somewhere.

 

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Does the spreading of conflict make it harder for Israel to achieve its aims in Gaza?​

Israel’s widening campaign is sowing increasing anger among the populations in the Middle East who are sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. This makes achieving peace in the future harder.

Certainly, a larger war will spread Israel thin, especially when it has yet to achieve the eradication of Hamas in Gaza. However, Israel continues to have the military support of the United States.

Israel has been fighting in Gaza for a year and there has been major destruction of Hamas brigades and a severe loss of fighters. The biggest problem for achieving its aims in Gaza is that Israel has no vision for an alternative governing force. The problem isn’t that Israeli forces are being spread thin, but that Israel needs a political strategy for a government framework that leads to Palestinian self-determination and has international and Palestinian buy-in. Without that, Gaza will be a constant threat and a constant military drain.

 

[Ghazi52]

Israel cannot achieve its aims in Gaza because it doesn’t have a political aim – it never did, and it went to war without one. And this will potentially be its Achilles’ heel. But Netanyahu probably doesn’t feel like he needs to seek any kind of political outcome because he can go to endless war, and yet still have much of the Western world on his side.

 

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Will whoever wins the US election in November be able to exert any influence over the Israeli military operation?​

Any American president can exert influence on Benjamin Netanyahu if he or she wants to. But none of them have thought it beneficial. Kamala Harris has less long-term baggage than Joe Biden in terms of wanting to give unconditional levels of support to Israel, but her party is internally divided - on one side there is strong support for Israel and on the other side, some are calling for an arms embargo. Those are a minority, but the Democratic voices calling to constrain Israel somehow are growing significantly. Trump is a wildcard. He talks big, but he doesn’t like America being dragged into wars.

I think Donald Trump might exert more influence than Kamala Harris. He is more pro-Netanyahu, or at least pro-right-wing Israel, but he’s very much against dragging the US into war.

Any US administration that is providing $10bn (£7.6bn) to help Israel’s military operations will have leverage, especially as Israel’s economy is suffering. The question is whether there is any US politician in a position of real authority who is willing to absorb the political cost domestically of using that leverage. At present there is not in either party. There is no Ronald Reagan or George HW Bush in prospect.

 

[Ghazi52]

What are the potential ways wider conflict could be averted?​

They’re harder to pinpoint with every missile fired or air strike launched.

I am very pessimistic about the prospects of de-escalation… most likely the perception within the Israel Defence Forces and at the political level within Netanayhu's war cabinet is that they have the momentum. In warfare, when one side believes it has the momentum against its adversary, you don't want to give it up, because you can continue to put pressure on your enemy.

This conflict will not be won militarily by any actor involved. Ultimately, diplomacy is the only way towards stability.