[🇱🇧] Lebanon - Israel Conflict -2024

[Ghazi52]

There are two obvious off-ramps. The first is for Israel to accept a ceasefire in Gaza that will pull back forces to agreed locations so that humanitarian aid can move and that allows for a new Palestinian governing authority that Palestinians, not Israelis or Americans, will choose. The second is for a ceasefire in Lebanon that will see Hezbollah cease rocket/missile attacks on Israel in return for Israel halting its airstrikes and ground incursions.

I don’t think Netanyahu is looking for off-ramps. But the one potential off-ramp is if there were major concessions from Iran, a major turnaround in Iranian policy, starting with the nuclear programme but including the support for Hezbollah and Hamas. I can’t imagine it happening, but that would be an off-ramp.

 

[Ghazi52]

In Lebanon, the off-ramp is for a ceasefire and an agreement on new security arrangements in the south. I don’t think this option is available before the end of this year and while we’re awaiting a new US administration.

There are no off-ramps here unless the US and other major Western governments make it their business to change the direction of events on the ground in the Middle East.

Dahlia photo credit: Oren Ziv

 

[Ghazi52]

Israeli military says about 20 projectiles fired from Lebanon into Israel​

From CNN’s Tamar Michaelis and Lucas Lilieholm

Iron Dome intercepts rocket attack on Israel’s Haifa on Friday morning.
Reuters

The Israeli military said nearly two dozen projectiles were identified crossing into Israeli territory from Lebanon after sirens sounded in the northern city of Haifa and the Galilee region.

Reuters video showed rockets being intercepted by Israel’s defense systems over the Haifa skyline around sunrise Friday morning.

The Israel Defense Forces said about 20 projectiles were identified after sirens sounded between 7:01 a.m. and 7:04 a.m. local time in the Haifa Bay and Western Galilee areas. Most were intercepted and “the rest fell in open areas,” it said.

Israel Police said some interception shrapnel fell in the area, mostly in Kiryat Yam, just north of Haifa. Property was damaged, but no injuries reported.

“Multiple projectiles” were also identified crossing from Lebanon after sirens sounded at 7:23 a.m. local time in the Upper Galilee area, the military said.

“Some of the projectiles were successfully intercepted and the rest fell in open areas,” it said.

The extent of the impact is unclear.

 

[Ghazi52]

Here are the latest developments in the region:

• Strikes across Lebanon: The Israeli military said Thursday it had hit Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters in Beirut. Across Lebanon, at least 37 people were killed and 151 wounded by Israeli strikes on Thursday, the Lebanese health ministry said.
• Evacuations: Israel has issued evacuation orders for more villages in southern Lebanon, signaling a broadening of its ground incursion. The villages are in areas that now extend deeper into Lebanon, reaching up to 45 kilometers (28 miles) inside the country.
• Fleeing to Syria: Around 160,000 people have crossed the border from Lebanon to Syria since the escalation of hostilities in Lebanon last month, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said Thursday.
• Bracing for retaliation: The Middle East is bracing for Israel’s response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack earlier this week. Growing escalations on multiple fronts have put the region on the precipice as the first anniversary of Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel draws nearer.
• West Bank strikes: Israel said one of its airstrikes killed the leader of the Hamas network in the Tulkarem area in the West Bank, Zahi Yaser Abd al-Razeq Oufi, on Thursday. Hamas condemned the attack, but did not confirm if Oufi was killed.
• Gaza death toll rises: Israeli airstrikes on the territory killed 99 people and wounded 169 on Thursday, according to the Health Ministry in Gaza. The total death toll since October 7 has risen to 41,788, the ministry said.

 

[Ghazi52]

Israel says Hezbollah launched about 230 projectiles from Lebanon on Thursday​

From CNN's Mohammed Tawfeeq, Eugenia Yosef and Nechirvan Mando

Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system operates for interceptions as rockets are launched from Lebanon towards Israe, as seen from Haifa, Israel, on Thursday, October 3.
Ammar Awad/Reuters

Israel accused Hezbollah of launching approximately 230 projectiles from Lebanon into Israeli territory on Thursday.

Hezbollah, meanwhile, claimed to have carried out 32 varied attacks throughout the day, including rocket salvos on Israeli settlements and military bases and attacks on Israeli soldiers carrying out ground operations in southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah was not the only Iran-backed group to have claimed to have attacked Israel on Thursday. In a separate incident, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of several Iran-backed militias, claimed responsibility for a drone attack in southern Israel.

The Israeli military said it intercepted a drone over southern Israel and no one was inju

 

[Ghazi52]

Israel's daily aerial assault on Lebanon more intense than most years of US' 20-year war in Afghanistan​

From CNN's Kara Fox

Smoke billows from an Israeli airstrike in Khiam, Lebanon, on October 3.
AFP via Getty Images

Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon is heavier than the height of the United States’ fight against ISIS, data from a conflict monitoring group shows.

Israel has pummeled Lebanon with an unprecedented airstrike campaign in less than three weeks, killing more than 1,400 people, injuring nearly 7,500 others and displacing more than one million people from their homes, according to the Lebanese health ministry.

To put that into context, over the course of two days, on September 24 and September 25, the Israel military said it used 2,000 munitions and carried out 3,000 strikes.

In comparison, for most of America’s 20-year war in Afghanistan, the US carried out less than 3,000 strikes a year, barring the first year of the invasion, where around 6,500 strikes were carried out, according to data from Airwars analyzed by CNN.

Israel’s bombardment, which Israel says is targeting Hezbollah strongholds in the country, marks the world’s “most intense aerial campaign” outside of Gaza in the last two decades, Airwars said.

The majority of the fire exchanged between Israel and Hezbollah since the start of the war has come from Israeli strikes, drones, shelling and missiles on Lebanese territory, according to data from ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data), an organization that collects data on violent conflict.

Israel has launched nearly 9,000 attacks into Lebanon since October 8 and Hezbollah launched 1,500 attacks in that same time frame, according to the ACLED data.

 

[Ghazi52]

Israel warns it will take "appropriate measures" against any rescue vehicle used by Hezbollah​

From CNN's Hamdi Alkhshali and Louis Leeson

The Israeli military urged medical teams in Lebanon to avoid cooperating with Hezbollah, warning that it would take “appropriate measures” if their rescue vehicles are used by the militant group.

The Israel Defense Forces has accused Hezbollah of “exploiting” such rescue vehicles to transport what it described as terrorists and weapons.

“Any vehicle proven to be used by an armed terrorist for terrorist purposes, regardless of its type, will be subject to appropriate measures to prevent its military use,” IDF spokesperson Avichay Adraee warned.

 

[Ghazi52]

Most weapon smuggling does not take place through the crossing Israel struck, Lebanese minister says​

From CNN's Mitchell McCluskey


Lebanon’s Minister of Economy and Trade said most weapon smuggling does not take place through the Masnaa border crossing with Syria, which Israel struck on Thursday.

The Israel Defense Forces said it hit an “underground tunnel crossing” at that location to prevent weapons from being smuggled into Lebanon. Amin Salam told CNN’s Isa Soares on Friday that Lebanon intends to inspect the site after the rubble is cleared but that most smuggling takes place through illegal channels rather than the official entry point at Masnaa.

“Smuggling weapons into Lebanon or smuggling anything inside or outside Lebanon mostly is not done through this channel. Mostly it is done through illegal channels, illegal roads, in Lebanon that are not like this one,” he said.

The Masnaa border crossing lies in the Bekaa Valley on the Beirut-Damascus international highway, a major transport link for people and goods between Lebanon and Syria. Tens of thousands of people have used the highway to flee Israeli bombardment in recent days.

 

[Ghazi52]

Hezbollah has yet to decide when and where to bury Nasrallah, source says​

From CNN's Tamara Qiblawi in Beirut

Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah gives a televised address in Lebanon on September 19.
Al-Manar TV/Reuters


Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah last Friday has driven the Iran-backed group even deeper underground. A successor has not yet been named. And perhaps most unusually, a funeral — at least a public one — has not yet been held.

Why this matters:
According to Islamic norms, the dead must be laid to rest at the soonest opportunity, normally within 24 hours. That is especially true for Muslims slain by an enemy state. Questions swirled and reports emerged on Friday morning that the late leader had been buried in secret. But a source close to Hezbollah told CNN this was not true. “Nothing has been decided,” the source said, about the time and place of the burial.

Coupled with the lack of a clear successor, this has shrouded the group in more secrecy. For a week, Hezbollah’s public statements have been cursory at best. This strikes a sharp contrast with the Iran-backed Shia group’s practice of shoring up community support with public gatherings, and Nasrallah’s long and rousing speeches.

 

[Ghazi52]

More background:
On Friday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei commemorated Nasrallah in Friday prayers, which, in a rare move, he led. Yet there was no public gathering to mark this in Lebanon.

There are security reasons for that, as well as for the lack of a public funeral. Israel’s intensive bombing campaign has battered many Shia-majority neighborhoods and towns, so there is no conceivably safe place to hold it.

Israel’s airstrikes have decimated its command and control and have also killed a large number of civilians, according to the Ministry of Health, and displaced over a million. More than 100 children have been killed in Israeli strikes in the last 11 days alone, according to UNICEF.

Still, this all underscores the fact that this is a very different war. During the last all-out war with Israel in 2006, Nasrallah gave televised speeches nearly every day. The leadership is operating more clandestinely than ever before, after having been confronted by the most extensive Israeli infiltration of its ranks in its history.