[🇧🇩] Trump's Victory/Tariff/ Bangladesh

[Krishna with Flute]

A good share Krishna.

Bangladesh has effectively now come in Trump's crosshairs and the US deep state machinery will now do the rest.

Interesting times ahead for our neighbours on both flanks.

@Bilal9 @Dogun18

Cheers, Doc

The unfortunate part is that our coward Prime minister is mum as ever. When election will come closer, he will visit temples and feed cows with grass. On other hand looting of Mandir's wealth is on so as cow slaughter. We need an immediate replacement of this coward from top position.

 

[Saif]

Will Trump's return change Bangladesh-US ties?

Michael Kugelman discusses the implications of a second Trump presidency for Bangladesh with The Daily Star.

www.thedailystar.net

Will Trump's return change Bangladesh-US ties?
Bangladesh-US relationship after Trump's win

COLLAGE: STAR

In the aftermath of Donald Trump's resounding victory in the US election 2024, Michael Kugelman, the director of South Asia Institute in the Wilson Center, speaks to Ramisa Rob of The Daily Star, about the implications for Bangladesh at large.

What does Trump's victory, and the change in leadership in the US, mean for Bangladesh—in the short-term and long-term?

There won't be any notable implications in the immediate term, for example in the first weeks and months when Donald Trump takes office in January. But I do recognise that in itself is an implication and change for Bangladesh because it's experiencing significant challenges especially in the economic front to reform the country, and it won't really have the US to check in on them.

There are several things we have to remember. One, the relationship between Bangladesh and the US, during the first Trump administration, saw many strategic partnerships. It was during that period that the Trump administration launched the Indo-Pacific policy, and considered Bangladesh to be a big part of that. Trade between the US and Bangladesh also went up as well. Now, the question is: what do those experiences tell us about what could happen now over the next four years?

One has to acknowledge obviously that a lot has changed in Bangladesh—there's now a new leader, Dr Yunus, who was quite critical of Donald Trump previously. But this time, he's leading the interim government and his reaction was obviously very different: a cordial letter was issued to congratulate Trump. I also think the question is how Trump would look at the state of the relationship and whether he would want to refashion the current relationship, which I think he will as I don't think he will prioritize the US robustly embracing development assistance, and so on.

How exactly would he refashion the development assistance, and how much change could we be looking at?

The current messaging that the US wants to help Bangladesh in strengthening the economy and engaging in reforms and with that new agreements, including a USAID agreement that commits new funding to Bangladesh, would probably change. The way Donald Trump looks at foreign policy is very transactional and pragmatic and he also takes an approach of burden-sharing with allies and partners. So I don't think Trump would be interested in continuing the current nature of the relationship. But now, if we are to contemplate the possibility that the Trump administration would want to pull back on the commitments that have been made so far by the current Biden administration—I don't think we should overstate the deleterious impact that could have on Bangladesh just because Bangladesh, especially with a Yunus-led government, is a country that has a lot of friends, partners and multilateral donors around the world.

Just days before the election, Trump had posted a factless, incendiary tweet about Bangladesh. Can we anticipate the rhetoric will continue?

My view is that it doesn't necessarily reflect his actual positions but rather the US electoral politics at play. There have been several prominent Hindu American activists who have said publicly that Trump's statements were a product of their advocacy, and these activists are essentially Modi supporters as well. The comments that Trump made were not only directly at Bangladesh—he did mention he looks forward to working with his good friend, Modi. I think this does get to an important issue. Clearly, the government of Bangladesh understands that this was an electoral strategy, but I suspect it did not go down well in Dhaka, so the US-Bangladesh relationship will take off to a tricky start when Trump takes office because these comments must have left a bitter taste in the mouth of the Bangladesh government. From a public diplomacy standpoint, there has been a pushback against this disinformation about Bangladesh since August, and Trump's comments must have negatively affected that. But it's something that can be worked through. It's clear to me that Dr Yunus wants this relationship to work and the onus will be on him and the interim government to get through to the Trump administration that it wants this to work. I don't expect to see initiations from the Trump administration towards Bangladesh.

What is the current relationship and how will that tangibly change, especially in the context of delicate state of Bangladesh-India relations as well?

It is very clear that the politics of Dr Yunus don't align with Donald Trump. For his work as an economist and pioneer of the microfinance industry, many Western liberals and members of the Democratic Party respect Dr Yunus. We know when Yunus took office, the Biden administration responded very positively, which was significant given that we had seen tensions creep into the US-Bangladesh relationship in the last few years of the Sheikh Hasina government. When the Chief Advisor was in Washington for the UNGA, he was hosted by the Clinton Foundation. So obviously, those things are going to be different now because Donald Trump embodies a very different type of worldview. But the personality differences between the leaders in due course can be overcome when you look at the broader interests. Trump would recognise that there is a significant trade partnership between Bangladesh and the US. And there should be recognition, from the perspective of the Trump administration, based on geopolitical considerations that it's important for the US to not back away too much from Bangladesh which would drive the nation even closer to China.

Getting to the India factor, it's very clear to me that Donald Trump and Narendra Modi have a good rapport, and their ideological views are in many cases convergent. But I just don't think that would affect Bangladesh as the US and Bangladesh have a trade partnership—the US being a top destination for exports—and that would not concern India. And regarding the great power competition, Trump's ideologies would very much align with what India would like to see, which is that the Bangladesh government does not get closer to China. On the other hand, the fact that you're not going to have a US President who would go out of his way to strengthen the relationship with the current interim government, and show commitment to working with it. That kind of messaging would have been heard with the Harris administration but it won't come from the Trump administration, and in the context of current tense Bangladesh-India relations, it would be more reassuring for India.

Given Trump's hardline position on China, how would that affect the relationship between Bangladesh and the US?

If Trump takes a hardline on US-China competition—he likely will but you never know with him—and he may try to push Dhaka to sort of move away from the Indo-Pacific Outlook—a document that was passed by the previous government in Bangladesh to balance the relationship between the US and China. He could be more direct that Dhaka has to work more with Washington, which could cause tensions. But as you know, Trump is a maverick. While you can make inferences based on what he's done in the past, we can't rule out the possibility that he could decide after taking office, to reach some sort of understanding with President Xi Jinping. He just likes to do things like that. Let's not forget that during his first year in office, he did suggest that he saw China as a friend. So if we were to have this sort of "black swan" development and Trump decided that he wants to tone down the US-China competition, it would be very helpful for US-Bangladesh relations and Bangladesh's geopolitical interests on the whole.

Trump's campaign presented protectionist economic policies, so would that hamper the trade relationship with Bangladesh?

If you look at the data compared to 2022 and 2023, there has been a notable reduction in trade volume. Though not significant, there also has been a reduction in the US foreign direct investment (FDI) to Bangladesh. It is honestly because of the economic slowdown we're seeing in Bangladesh, so to speak. So I think if Trump were to come in and start making recommendations on tough tariff policies, that would certainly impact US-Bangladesh commercial relations. But it's important to know there are other ways to pursue commercial relations, through the development-finance corporation (DFC). If Bangladesh is able to strengthen its labour rights, then DFC theoretically would be able to provide support to Bangladesh's infrastructure projects and so on. Bangladesh is not authorised yet on DFC because of labour rights concerns that US officials have had, but if that were to change, it would be good for Bangladesh. And it could change, as I don't know if a Trump administration would be as strict regarding labour concerns compared to a Democratic administration.

Regarding the Rohingya issue, how would Trump's victory affect the mounting crisis in Bangladesh?

Given the situation in Myanmar, the Biden administration has been firmly behind Bangladesh, in terms of committing and maintaining assistance, mainly for USAID. By contrast, the Trump administration probably won't be as generous to disperse resources. But the security implications of a worsening war in Myanmar for Bangladesh could get the attention of the Trump administration, if the government in Dhaka presented the Rohingya issue not just as a humanitarian issue, but from a broader stability perspective.

We have seen Dr Yunus try to get the world's attention on the Rohingya issue. He has raised the issue of relocation to other countries, more so than repatriation because I don't think the Yunus-interim would repatriate the Rohingya to Myanmar given the lack of their safety over there. Regarding this, the Trump administration would not be a supporter of facilitating the efforts to relocate Rohingya to a third country, and certainly not the US, given his politics on immigration. That aspect of it could be a challenge as we look at the possibilities of easing the burden on Bangladesh.​

 

[Saif]

Trump's win won't put Bangladesh under pressure

Bangladesh enjoys good relations with the US. That will continue in Trump's second term. This will not face any major challenge

en.prothomalo.com

Trump's win won't put Bangladesh under pressure
ANM Muniruzzaman
Updated: 08 Nov 2024, 14: 08

"Not only has Trump returned to power for the second time, but has also won the majority in the Senate and House of Representatives."

Donald Trump has won a landslide victory in the US election. Such a victory is rare in US history. Not only has Trump returned to power for the second time, but he has also won the majority in the Senate and House of Representatives. In other words, by means of this election, Trump has secured the power to exert his singular influence over US politics.

As a result, Trump will no longer have any obstacle to implement the policies which he believes in and which he projected during the election. He will uphold the 'America First' policy, holding US interests above all. On the domestic front, he will enforce strict rules on immigration. He may even force those without proper immigration papers to leave the country. He will also enforce strict measures to ensure that no immigrants can enter the US from Mexico or through any other border.

He may also bring about radical changes in the energy, environment and tax policies. Above all, US politics will be completely "Trump-ed".

Narendra Modi has personal ties with Trump, but this is often over exaggerated. Personal relations or sentiment hardly have any place in foreign relations, particularly when it comes to a superpower's relations with any country. Realpolitik is all that matters

Two major conflicts prevail in the present-day world -- the Russian-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war (which has now extended to Lebanon). Trump had announced from beforehand that he would bring an end to these two conflicts. He has not, however, made it clear how he will do so. It is assumed that the one-sided support that the US has been giving Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine war so far, will abate somewhat. While US military assistance to Ukraine may continue to an extent, there will be a drop in financial support.

Trump will want the European countries to extended financial assistance to Ukraine. Many apprehend that Trump may put pressure on for a peace accord, accepting the reality of the prevailing military presence in Ukraine territory. In that case, much of Ukraine's occupied territory will go over to Russian hands.

US support for Israel in the Hamas-Israel war will not only continue in Trump's second term, but will increase further. In Trump's first term we saw he had very close ties with Israel. Trump may put pressure on Hamas for a peace accord as directed. But Trump will make an effort to ensure that the Middle East war does not spread further.

Trump's attitude and policy towards Iran may become extremely stern. Trump firmly believes that Iran is the main reason behind the instability and the disruption of peace in the Middle East. Fresh military, economic and diplomatic pressure will come upon Iran.

The US Middle East policy may be revamped in light of the Trump policy. The Abraham Accords signed during Trump's term, which were placed somewhat on the backburner, may be revived. The Trump administration may use pressure or persuasion to make Israel more acceptable to the Middle East countries.

In his first term, Trump had a tough stance regarding China. That will be even tougher in his second term. He will increase pressure on China particularly in the area of trade. Fresh tariff will be imposed on products exported by China to the US. China will face major obstacles to its exports of electric vehicles, solar products and mobile phone technology to the US market. The US may enter into a technology war with China.

The US will also keep a sharp watch on China, militarily speaking. The US will be prepared to ensure that China cannot create any pressure on Taiwan. The US will also want Taiwan to take initiative for its own defence. Presently Taiwan spends 3 per cent of its budget on defence. Trump will want Taiwan to increase this considerably.

The US has been attaching much importance to its regional strategic polices such as the Indo-Pacific Strategy. This will continue during Trump's term, and its importance will even increase further in some instances. During the Biden administration we saw after the advent of AUKUS (the trilateral security partnership between the US, Australia and the UK), the importance of Quad (the security grouping of the US, India, Australia and Japan) decreased to a degree. That is because AUKUS included hard security power components. Traditional security will gain precedence over non-traditional security during the Trump term.

The US has strategic partnership with our neighbour India. India is important to the US as part of its strategy to thwart China. This strategy will continue and not undergo any change during Trump's second term.
Indian prime minister Narendra Modi has personal ties with Trump, but this is often over exaggerated. Personal relations or sentiment hardly have any place in foreign relations, particularly when it comes to a superpower's relations with any country. Realpolitik is all that matters. Pragmatically speaking, the US will do whatever it needs to do in its own national interests. Personal friendship does not factor in.

The stable relationship that the US has with India will continue to be stable. But the US has adopted an expanded view regarding its future sphere of influence. This will stand to be a bone of contention for India in many areas. India can use its clout now to enter many areas easily. In the future it may not have that scope. The US will adopt a stern stance in this regard.

Bangladesh enjoys good relations with the US. That will continue in Trump's second term. This will not face any major challenge. We must keep in mind that many countries are considerably higher up than Bangladesh on the US list of countries with which it has foreign relations. Bangladesh does not loom very large in US' national interest considerations.

Much of Indian media has exaggerated issues pertaining to the direction of Bangladesh-US relations. They are trying to create a scare. That is not at all realistic.

It is both baseless and unrealistic to imagine that Trump's win will create any form of pressure on Bangladesh's interim government. The interim government is working towards restoring democracy in Bangladesh. This is in keeping with US policy. The US wants true democracy in Bangladesh. The US and Trump will continue to support the process for election and restoration of democracy in Bangladesh within a realistic timeframe.
Many on social media have expressed their view that Bangladesh will be in a difficult position with Trump back at the helm. This is nothing but unrealistic ideas. Some quarters may deliberately be touting such ideas to invigorate their activists and supports. But this is nothing but absurdity.

* Major General ANM Muniruzzaman (retd) is President, Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies.​

 

[Saif]

Donald Trump wins: Let Bangladesh-US relations grow stronger

Bangladesh and the US had deep ties even during the first term of Donald Trump, which has been mentioned by the chief adviser also. It can be hoped that those ties would be solidified even more in his second term.

en.prothomalo.com

Donald Trump wins: Let Bangladesh-US relations grow stronger
Editorial Desk
Published: 08 Nov 2024, 18: 35

Republican candidate Donald Trump has been elected president of the United States for the second time. After losing the election once, the same person becoming the president for the second time is rare incident in the history of the United States. Moreover, he had to win the election battling a criminal case and several assassination attempts.

He had current vice president from the Democratic Party, Kamala Harris, as his competitor in the presidential election this time. The debates between the two presidential candidates were enjoyable. Sometimes it would feel that Kamala Harris has floored Trump while some other times it would feel that it was actually Donald Trump who totally destroyed the opponent with his slants.

Kamala Harris emphasised on maintaining US’ superiority in geopolitics alongside world peace and putting American public at ease by increasing healthcare and reducing the load of taxes. On the other hand, Donald Trump ran a strong campaign in favour of ‘America First’ policy, a rapid end to Ukraine war and driving illegal immigrants out.

Just as Trump defeated his opponent with a huge margin in this election, the Republican Party has also gained undisputed majority in the Senate as well as in the House of Representatives.

Along with all the pro-democracy population of the world we also congratulate Donald Trump, elected with public votes. Congratulating the US president, chief adviser of the interim government Dr Muhammad Yunus has stated, “For our commitment to a peaceful and inclusive society, the government and peace-loving people of Bangladesh await your partnership and cooperation in facing global challenges in the pursuit of peace, harmony, stability and prosperity. Please accept my best wishes for your success as you embark on this momentous journey of leading your great nation.”

The US foreign policy always prioritises peace, democracy and human rights. The objective of the interim government that has taken the charge of running the country through the recent student-people mass uprising in Bangladesh is also to take the country on the path of democracy by carrying out reforms of the state.

Bangladesh has a longstanding relationship with the United States. It’s the largest importer of our readymade garments and the country also stands at the top of the list of countries investing in Bangladesh. The number of Bangladeshi immigrants in the country is also growing. They are also contributing significantly to the remittance flow.

Alike the other developing and underdeveloped countries, Bangladesh can also be impacted from the promise Donald Trump had made during the election campaign about stopping the so called intrusion of illegal immigrants. However, the matter of hope is that in the US the president cannot do whatever they want just like that. They are held accountable to the Congress and to the court. Despite the announcement to stop allowing in immigrants from a few Muslim countries during his first stint, Trump couldn’t implement that.

The foreign policy of any particular country is formulated from the perspective of the national interests of that state. The internal politics or change of power of another country doesn’t play much of a role there. The United States would certainly want to see political stability in Bangladesh for its own geopolitical interest after all.

Even after that, a quarter in Bangladesh has been spreading various rumours on social media following Donald Trump’s victory in the US. From the interest of solidifying bilateral ties, the government must remain alert against these sorts of propaganda and rumours.

During his election campaign, Donald Trump in a post on his X (former twitter) handle had commented that ‘barbaric violence’ is being committed against the minorities in Bangladesh. We must establish such a state where every single person regardless of the minority or majority communities will enjoy equity and fair share of rights. In that case, nobody will be able to take advantage from spreading propaganda or rumours.

Bangladesh and the US had deep ties even during the first term of Donald Trump, which has been mentioned by the chief adviser also. It can be hoped that those ties would be solidified even more in his second term.​

 

[Bilal9]

A good share Krishna.

Bangladesh has effectively now come in Trump's crosshairs and the US deep state machinery will now do the rest.

Interesting times ahead for our neighbours on both flanks.

@Bilal9 @Dogun18

Cheers, Doc

You are reading too much into Trump's proclamations. Watch what he does, not what he says.

Millions of H1B overstayers are about to get kicked out of the US, if they don't leave voluntarily. Those people are actually prima facie in Trump's cross hairs.

Putting Tilak in Trump's picture and doing Trump Aarti/Pooja won't help.

Trump will do whatever pleases his American base (jobs, grocery/gas bills), who don't care jack about Hindus or Muslims. Trump doesn't either.

 

[Sharma Ji]

Trump is just kinda currying favour with India with these posts. They must have dropped a few mil in campaign contributions, the lobbyists. It is all about trade and how the US can benefit.

Islamists running rampage in BD against a minority group will not go down well. BD's growing ties with China will also not go down well.

At his core, but, he's a businessman, transactional in his dealings.. it all really boils down to what BD can offer his country.

India will give him 10s of billions in military purchases.

India is also viewed as a bit of a bulwark against... Chyna! Also the only nuclear power in the region who opposes them.

and a stable democracy, though that may not be as important to him.

Overall, barring some sort of military crisis (Ind Pak, Ind China) I think this region is probably not going to be too high on his priority list to begin with.

 

[Vsdoc]

You are reading too much into Trump's proclamations. Watch what he does, not what he says.

Millions of H1B overstayers are about to get kicked out of the US, if they don't leave voluntarily. Those people are actually prima facie in Trump's cross hairs.

Putting Tilak in Trump's picture and doing Trump Aarti/Pooja won't help.

Trump will do whatever pleases his American base (jobs, grocery/gas bills), who don't care jack about Hindus or Muslims. Trump doesn't either.

I think you know me well enough to know I'm not the tilak variety Indian.

I don't really know how old you are but you're no spring chicken. And I am from the generation of Indians that at best will never trust America. In actual fact do not care greatly for it.

It is in the region's best interest that the US does not set up shop here.

They've exited Afghanistan. Pakistan is yesterday's news.

The game has shifted towards China.

And Bangladesh is closest to China and the weakest link.

I doubt Bangladesh gas it in its national fiber to resist American pressure.

That is why I am concerned. There is zero altruistic motive. I just do not want the yanks stationed at my gate.

And therefore I sincerely hope you guys clean up your act quickly and not invite them here.

 

[Vsdoc]

@Bilal9 @Saif and other Bangladeshis may be too young, but should never forget

That while we Indians were fighting for Bangladeshis

To deliver them and birth them a nation

The US waa sailing its nuclear armada (carrier group) in to nuke us.

Fitrat of a person or a group of persons (nation, people) never changes.

 

[Saif]

Overall, barring some sort of military crisis (Ind Pak, Ind China) I think this region is probably not going to be too high on his priority list to begin with.

Your observation is correct. Middle East, China and Russia will be on his priority list.

 

[Saif]

Fitrat of a person or a group of persons (nation, people) never changes.

What does fitrat mean?

 

[Vsdoc]

What does fitrat mean?

Its Urdu for one's inherent nature.

 

[Bilal9]

@Bilal9 @Saif and other Bangladeshis may be too young, but should never forget

That while we Indians were fighting for Bangladeshis

To deliver them and birth them a nation

The US waa sailing its nuclear armada (carrier group) in to nuke us.

Fitrat of a person or a group of persons (nation, people) never changes.

How are you so sure about "delivering and birthing us a nation" when Muktis did 95% of the fighting? Indian Army did not even cross the border until 15 days before the surrender.

And whatever Mrs. Gandhi did -was also 95% for the interest of India (breaking Pakistan) which Indian Hindu leaders were planning from 1947.

Acting like India did us a favor is the biggest piece of propaganda - which YOU may be too young to understand.

But all this is water under the bridge, where do you see things now?

Are Bangladeshis in love with India and its leaders?

India's foreign policy is the biggest failure now, especially regarding Bangladesh. Can't blame us for that.