Turkish Defense Forum - Jan 26, 2024
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Although the latest rift is more than rhetorical, Ankara is unlikely to sever ties completely—unless Israel blocks it from participating in Gaza's reconstruction.
Turkish-Israeli ties are complicated, particularly with respect to the Palestinian conflict, and the latest rift reflects these complexities. The relationship fully ruptured in 2010 when Ankara sponsored a maritime flotilla to break Israel's blockade of Hamas-ruled Gaza, resulting in a controversial military raid and international diplomatic crisis. Soon thereafter, Turkey began openly providing substantial diplomatic support and shelter to Hamas.
Relations did not fully reset until more than a decade later, when Israel and Turkey reinstated their ambassadors in December 2022. By then, Ankara's role in Israeli-Palestinian affairs had diminished significantly, and Turkish officials realized that they needed to keep diplomatic channels with Israel open in order to maintain influence on this crucial regional issue—hence their months of caution about rupturing ties again after the Gaza war broke out in October. They are especially keen on positioning Turkey as a player in any postwar Gaza scenarios.
Four new developments put an abrupt halt to Erdogan's charm offensive in recent weeks. First, the Biden administration recently balked at setting a timeframe for the White House visit due to disagreements over the summit's deliverables, including potential trade deals and an elevated public welcome for Erdogan in Washington. Second, Ankara previously believed that the Gaza conflict would be ending within months; it now seems to think the crisis is on the verge of becoming an open-ended conflict. Third, Ankara is worried that Netanyahu may stay on the scene longer than anticipated—even if he is voted outin early elections, Turkish leaders believe he may stage a comeback in subsequent snap elections. Fourth, Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) suffered resounding defeats in local elections on March 31.
The latter development is significant in general political terms because AKP candidates lost mayoral races in major cities such as Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir, booting the party down to second place in the national polls for the first time in two decades. Even more worrisome for Erdogan—and for Turkey's relations with Israel—is the breakthrough of the far-right New Welfare Party (YRP), which has gained nearly 7 percent in national polls, wooed away many supporters on Erdogan's vulnerable right flank, and taken some key cities from the AKP. In addition to holding various misogynistic, anti-Semitic, and anti-LGBTQ positions, the YRP is virulently anti-Israel.
In the meantime, the trade ban alone could affect Israel's economy. For instance, cement and other construction materials are key Turkish exports to Israel, so their price may increase now that Israel must seek alternative suppliers. The same goes for goods such as steel, iron, and motor vehicles, whose shipping costs will climb if they have to be procured from more-distant markets.
Yet one important dynamic remains unchanged and may limit retaliatory steps against Israel—namely, Erdogan's desire to play a role in Gaza "the day after." In line with Turkey's vision of being a regional power, Ankara is eager to participate in reconstructing the Strip, sorting out Palestinian politics, and mediating a long-term solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This suggests that it will shy away from another full 2010-style rupture. Even the trade boycott may prove porous—news reports indicate that Turkey is still providing Israel with Azerbaijani oil, sent by pipeline from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan and from there to Israel. Yet a full rupture could unfold quickly if Israel vetoes a Turkish role in Gaza, or if Israeli-Saudi talks implode.
Turkish-Israeli ties are complicated, particularly with respect to the Palestinian conflict, and the latest rift reflects these complexities. The relationship fully ruptured in 2010 when Ankara sponsored a maritime flotilla to break Israel's blockade of Hamas-ruled Gaza, resulting in a controversial military raid and international diplomatic crisis. Soon thereafter, Turkey began openly providing substantial diplomatic support and shelter to Hamas.
Relations did not fully reset until more than a decade later, when Israel and Turkey reinstated their ambassadors in December 2022. By then, Ankara's role in Israeli-Palestinian affairs had diminished significantly, and Turkish officials realized that they needed to keep diplomatic channels with Israel open in order to maintain influence on this crucial regional issue—hence their months of caution about rupturing ties again after the Gaza war broke out in October. They are especially keen on positioning Turkey as a player in any postwar Gaza scenarios.
Four new developments put an abrupt halt to Erdogan's charm offensive in recent weeks. First, the Biden administration recently balked at setting a timeframe for the White House visit due to disagreements over the summit's deliverables, including potential trade deals and an elevated public welcome for Erdogan in Washington. Second, Ankara previously believed that the Gaza conflict would be ending within months; it now seems to think the crisis is on the verge of becoming an open-ended conflict. Third, Ankara is worried that Netanyahu may stay on the scene longer than anticipated—even if he is voted outin early elections, Turkish leaders believe he may stage a comeback in subsequent snap elections. Fourth, Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) suffered resounding defeats in local elections on March 31.
The latter development is significant in general political terms because AKP candidates lost mayoral races in major cities such as Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir, booting the party down to second place in the national polls for the first time in two decades. Even more worrisome for Erdogan—and for Turkey's relations with Israel—is the breakthrough of the far-right New Welfare Party (YRP), which has gained nearly 7 percent in national polls, wooed away many supporters on Erdogan's vulnerable right flank, and taken some key cities from the AKP. In addition to holding various misogynistic, anti-Semitic, and anti-LGBTQ positions, the YRP is virulently anti-Israel.
What Lies Ahead?
To prevent more voters from migrating to the YRP, Erdogan has been hardening Turkey's policy against Israel since early April, and he will likely feel little pressure to alter this course given the end of his short-lived diplomatic romance with Biden and the growing Turkish perception that Netanyahu is here to stay. In practical terms, this means Ankara will no longer feel the need to tailor its criticisms of the Gaza war; in fact, it may consider further actions beyond rhetoric. On May 1, soon after news broke that Erdogan's Washington visit had been scrubbed, Turkey announced that it would join South Africa's bid to take Israel to the International Criminal Court "for committing genocide."In the meantime, the trade ban alone could affect Israel's economy. For instance, cement and other construction materials are key Turkish exports to Israel, so their price may increase now that Israel must seek alternative suppliers. The same goes for goods such as steel, iron, and motor vehicles, whose shipping costs will climb if they have to be procured from more-distant markets.
Yet one important dynamic remains unchanged and may limit retaliatory steps against Israel—namely, Erdogan's desire to play a role in Gaza "the day after." In line with Turkey's vision of being a regional power, Ankara is eager to participate in reconstructing the Strip, sorting out Palestinian politics, and mediating a long-term solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This suggests that it will shy away from another full 2010-style rupture. Even the trade boycott may prove porous—news reports indicate that Turkey is still providing Israel with Azerbaijani oil, sent by pipeline from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan and from there to Israel. Yet a full rupture could unfold quickly if Israel vetoes a Turkish role in Gaza, or if Israeli-Saudi talks implode.
