Wars 2022 02/24 Monitoring Russian and Ukraine War.

[Saif]

Zelensky seeks EU, NATO backing for ‘victory plan’

President Volodymyr Zelensky told allies yesterday Ukraine must be in a position of strength before any peace talks with Russia, as he presented his “victory plan” to EU leaders and NATO defence chiefs in Brussels.

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Zelensky seeks EU, NATO backing for ‘victory plan’

President Volodymyr Zelensky told allies yesterday Ukraine must be in a position of strength before any peace talks with Russia, as he presented his "victory plan" to EU leaders and NATO defence chiefs in Brussels.

More than two and a half years into the war, Kyiv is slowly but steadily losing territory in its eastern Donbas region and under mounting pressure to forge an exit strategy -- which it says must start with ramped-up Western support.

"Ukraine is ready for real diplomacy, but for it, we must be strong," Zelensky said as he met with the EU's 27 leaders.

"Russia will resort to diplomacy only when it sees that it cannot achieve anything by force," Zelensky added. "This is the plan. This is exactly what's needed, and we must create the right conditions to end this war."

The Ukrainian leader has travelled to Washington, Paris, Berlin, Rome and London to promote his initiative, but it has yet to gain backing from Western capitals -- and his plea for an immediate invitation to join NATO is widely viewed as unrealistic.

Zelensky said after his EU talks that a large number of member states had voiced their "full support" for Kyiv.

The bloc's leaders in their summit conclusions reiterated their "unwavering commitment" to support Ukraine militarily and economically for "as long as it takes" -- but without referring specifically to his plan.

The EU recently approved loaning Ukraine up to 35 billion euros ($38 billion) backed by frozen Russian assets -- part of a bigger $50 billion initiative agreed by G7 powers in June.

But there were dissenting voices too.

Hungary's Moscow-friendly Prime Minister Viktor Orban posted on Facebook that Zelensky's roadmap was "beyond terrifying", urging France and Germany "on behalf of the entire European Union, to start negotiations with the Russians as soon as possible".

'ALL THAT WE CAN'

Zelensky later joined defence ministers at the first of two days of talks between NATO's 32 member states, addressing a joint press conference with alliance chief Mark Rutte.

NATO countries have declared Ukraine to be on an "irreversible path" to membership.

But the United States and Germany have led opposition to immediate entry, believing it would effectively put the alliance at war with nuclear-armed Russia.

The secretary-general stuck to the NATO line, saying: "I look forward to the day that Ukraine is here as a member of this alliance, and until then, we will continue to do all that we can to assure Ukraine prevails."

He did not refer directly to Zelensky's proposal, which also rejects any territorial concessions, calls for Western allies to lift restrictions on using donated long-range weapons to target Russian military sites and suggests deploying a "non-nuclear strategic deterrence package" on Ukrainian territory.

The US position on membership is unlikely to shift whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the White House in the US election on November 5 -- though there are fears a second Trump term could upend the support Ukraine receives from NATO's biggest power.

Ukraine's allies are well aware however that time is of the essence, with the outlook on the battlefield bleak.

On the eve of the NATO meeting, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for exploring ways to end the war -- potentially including talks with Putin.

But according to an alliance diplomat, others still fear that anything short of an outright victory for Kyiv would spell disaster, ensuring that an emboldened Russia does not stop there.

'POSITION OF STRENGTH'

Driving home his appeal to Western leaders, Zelensky claimed to have intelligence that North Korea was training 10,000 soldiers to deploy with Russian forces against Ukraine -- calling it "the first step to a world war."

Rutte cautioned however that NATO has "no evidence that North Korean soldiers are involved in the fight," although Pyongyang was known to be fuelling Moscow's war effort in other ways.

In the meantime, the secretary-general said it was "essential that we continue to provide military aid."

Rutte said NATO was "well on track" to meet its July pledge to provide Kyiv a minimum of 40 billion euros ($43 billion) in military support in 2024, with 20 billion provided in the first half of the year.

But despite Ukraine's plea for stepped-up air defence systems -- as Russian forces pound its cities and infrastructure -- no new announcements were expected from NATO this week.​

 

[Saif]

Russia, Ukraine swap 190 POWs

Russia said yesterday that it had swapped 95 Ukrainian soldiers held captive for an equal number of Russian troops in an exchange deal brokered by the United Arab Emirates.

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Russia, Ukraine swap 190 POWs

Russia said yesterday that it had swapped 95 Ukrainian soldiers held captive for an equal number of Russian troops in an exchange deal brokered by the United Arab Emirates.

"As a result of the negotiation process, 95 Russian servicemen were returned from territory controlled by the Kyiv regime," the Russian defence ministry said.

"In return, 95 Ukrainian army prisoners of war were handed over," it said. Kyiv has not confirmed the exchange.

Despite ongoing hostilities, Russia and Ukraine have swapped hundreds of prisoners since the launch of Moscow's offensive in 2022, often in deals brokered by the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia or Turkey.

The last reported swap was last month, when 206 POWs were exchanged, in a deal also mediated by the UAE.

Earlier yesterday, Kyiv said it had received the bodies of 501 soldiers killed fighting Russian forces, mainly in eastern Ukraine, as a result of repatriation measures.

Russian lawmaker Shamsail Saraliyev told the RBK media outlet that Russia received 89 bodies of its soldiers in return.​

 

[Saif]

Ukraine drones target major Russian explosive plant

Ukraine said on Sunday it had targeted a crucial Russian explosives factory, located about 750 kilometres from the border, in an overnight drone attack.

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Ukraine drones target major Russian explosive plant
Agence France-Presse . Kyiv, Ukraine 21 October, 2024, 01:13

Ukraine said on Sunday it had targeted a crucial Russian explosives factory, located about 750 kilometres from the border, in an overnight drone attack.

Kyiv has repeatedly launched drone attacks deep into Russian territory, seeking to hit energy and military sites that it says key to supplying Moscow’s invading army.

A source in the SBU security services told AFP its drones had struck the Sverdlov explosives factory in Dzerzhinsk, just outside the Russian city of Nizhny Novgorod.

Russian officials confirmed drones had targeted the area but said the attack had been foiled.

‘Air defences and electronic warfare means repelled a drone attack on the territory of the Dzerzhinsk industrial zone,’ Nizhny Novgorod regional governor Gleb Nikitin said on Telegram.

‘Four employees of the fire station, located on the territory of the industrial enterprise, received light shrapnel wounds,’ he added.

The United States and European Union have sanctioned the Sverdlov plant, one of Russia’s largest manufacturers of military explosives.

Footage posted on Russian social media showed a large explosion in the area and small drones being downed by air defence systems.

AFP could not immediately verify the footage.

Kyiv did not say what damage, if any, the attack inflicted on the plant’s production capabilities.

Moscow’s defence ministry said earlier it had downed 110 Ukrainian drones that had been fired at its territory overnight, the largest attempted aerial barrage by Ukraine in two weeks.

Russia also launched a wave of attacks on Ukraine.

Kyiv said they targeted residential areas.

At least 17 people were wounded in an attack on the Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rig, including a first responder, the state emergency services said.

Russia also attacked an energy facility in the northeastern Sumy region, the regional power operator Sumyoblenergo said on Telegram, knocking out electricity for more than 37,000 consumers.

Ukraine is bracing for its toughest winter of the war yet.

Russia has destroyed swathes of its generating capacity and continues to strike energy sites, at a time when temperatures have dropped towards freezing across the country.

Separately, Russian aviation authorities temporarily closed the Kazan airport, around 1,000 kilometres from the Ukraine border, on Sunday morning, citing air safety concerns.

The Rosaviatsia agency did not provide a reason for the suspension of flights, although such restrictions are typically imposed when there are reports of Ukrainian drone attacks in the area.

Russian president Vladimir Putin is set to meet the leaders of China, Brazil and Turkey in the city later this week for the BRICS summit, the biggest gathering of Moscow’s allies and partners inside the country since it invaded Ukraine in February 2022.​

 

[Saif]

Ukraine says Russian forces advanced in key stronghold

Russian forces have advanced over a key waterway in the eastern Ukrainian stronghold of Chasiv Yar, a Ukrainian military official said, marking a setback for Kyiv’s embattled forces.

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Ukraine says Russian forces advanced in key stronghold
Agence France-Prese . Kyiv, Ukraine 22 October, 2024, 22:32

File photo

Russian forces have advanced over a key waterway in the eastern Ukrainian stronghold of Chasiv Yar, a Ukrainian military official said, marking a setback for Kyiv’s embattled forces.

The town of Chasiv Yar, which had an estimated pre-war population of around 12,000 people, sits on a strategic hilltop and its capture would likely speed Russian advances deeper in the war-battered Donetsk region.

‘The enemy managed to break into our line of defence, but there is no critical failure and we are not about to lose Chasiv Yar. Fierce fighting continues now,’ a spokesman for Ukraine’s 24th brigade told state-run media.

The spokesman Ivan Petrychak said that while Russian troops had crossed the canal on the eastern edge of the city Ukrainian troops were containing the advance.

Russian forces have been pushing against outnumbered Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region, which the Kremlin claims is part of Russia.

If Moscow captures the town, it would threaten some of the largest population centres in the industrial region, like Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

There have been sporadic reports that Russian forces have previously crossed the canal, which serves as a de facto front line, in Chasiv Yar, and Ukraine has claimed to have fought them back.

Russian drone and artillery attacks meanwhile killed five people, including a child, in the eastern Ukrainian regions of Sumy and Donetsk, officials said Tuesday.

Sumy lies across the border from Kursk in Russia, where Ukrainian troops launched a major offensive in August and have been holding swathes of territory.

‘Three people, including one child, died as a result of a night-time attack by enemy drones on residential buildings,’ regional authorities said, referring to the city of Sumy.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky called for fresh support from Kyiv’s Western partners to help his forces protect towns and cities.

‘This Russian terror can be overcome only through unity with the world,’ he said, urging allies to supply more weapons, including air defence systems.

He also called for ‘investments in weapons production in Ukraine’ and ‘long-range strikes on Russian military logistics, military airfields and bases of Russian troops’.

Separately, emergency services in the eastern Donetsk region, where Russian forces are steadily advancing, said two people had been killed and another wounded by Russian shelling on the town of Myrnograd.

Moscow’s defence ministry claimed its latest advances in the region on Tuesday, saying its forces had captured the abandoned frontline settlement of Novosadove in the Donetsk region.

Ukraine’s air force said 60 Russian drones in total had been detected in Ukrainian airspace overnight and into Tuesday morning and that 42 were destroyed.

Sumy has been under persistent bombardment since the beginning of the war in 2022, when Russian forces briefly captured sectors of the industrial territory before being pushed back.

Authorities said more than two dozen Russian drones had been shot down there overnight.

The Ukrainian operation in Kursk is part of a broader roadmap to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine recently outlined by president Volodymyr Zelensky.

In occupied southern Ukraine, Russian-installed officials said a Ukrainian drone attack on the town of Energodar, home to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, killed one person.​

 

[Saif]

Putin warns against ‘illusory’ attempts to defeat Russia

Russian president Vladimir Putin warned on Thursday against ‘illusory’ attempts to defeat Russia on the battlefield ahead of his first meeting with UN chief Antonio Guterres in more than...

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Putin warns against ‘illusory’ attempts to defeat Russia
Agence France-Presse . Kazan, Russia 25 October, 2024, 01:28

Vladimir Putin

Russian president Vladimir Putin warned on Thursday against ‘illusory’ attempts to defeat Russia on the battlefield ahead of his first meeting with UN chief Antonio Guterres in more than two years for talks set to focus on the conflict in Ukraine.

Putin was speaking in the Russian city of Kazan on the final day of the BRICS summit, a forum Moscow hopes will help forge a united front of emerging economies against the West.

Russia’s opponents ‘do not conceal their aim to deal our country a strategic defeat’, Putin said.

‘I will say directly that these are illusory calculations, that can be made only by those who do not know Russia’s history.’

Shortly before he spoke, Russia’s lower house of parliament voted to ratify a defence pact with North Korea amid reports that Pyongyang has sent thousands of troops to Russia for training and possible deployment in Ukraine.

At the meeting, Chinese president Xi Jinping also warned about ‘serious challenges’ in the world and said he hoped BRICS countries could be a ‘stabilising force for peace’.

‘We need to continue to push for a ceasefire in Gaza, relaunch the two-state solution and stop the spread of war in Lebanon. There should be no more suffering and destruction in Palestine and Lebanon,’ Xi said.

Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian slammed the UN Security Council’s role as Guterres listened, saying international bodies ‘lack the necessary efficiency to extinguish the fire of this crisis’.

Putin said the Middle East was ‘on the verge of full-scale war’.

Putin has faced calls from his BRICS allies to end the Ukraine conflict, which began when Moscow launched a full-scale military campaign in February 2022.

Guterres has repeatedly criticised Moscow’s military offensive against Ukraine, saying it sets a ‘dangerous precedent’ for the world.

The two men last saw each other in the first weeks of the offensive, when Guterres travelled to Moscow during Russia’s siege of Mariupol in south Ukraine.

Guterres has since been involved in peace efforts between the two sides, helping to broker a deal that allowed Kyiv to safely export grain from its ports in 2022.

There has been little direct diplomatic contact between the two countries since.

Ukraine has strongly criticised the UN chief’s decision to meet Putin.

Putin has demanded Ukraine surrender territory in its south and east as a precondition for a ceasefire, a position Kyiv has called ‘absurd’.

The Putin-Guterres talks come as Moscow’s troops advance in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, edging closer to the key supply hub of Pokrovsk.

Ukraine has condemned Guterres’s Russia visit, with Kyiv’s foreign ministry blasting him for planning to meet the ‘criminal Putin’.

The pair will meet a day after the United States said it believed ‘thousands’ of North Korean soldiers were being trained in Russia.

‘We don’t know what their mission will be or if they’ll go on to fight in Ukraine,’ a senior US official said.

Putin has not yet commented on the reports.

Russia on Wednesday said people should ‘ask Pyongyang’ about troop movements, refusing to confirm or deny the allegations.

Russian lawmakers on Thursday voted unanimously to ratify a defence treaty with North Korea that provides for ‘mutual assistance’ if either party faces aggression.

The document has now been sent for approval by the upper Federation Council.

Pyongyang and Moscow have drawn closer since Russia launched its 2022 offensive on Ukraine, with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un praising Putin as his country’s ‘dearest friend’.

The West believes North Korea is already giving Moscow weapons to use in its Ukraine offensive.

Several world leaders called for an end to the Ukraine conflict at the BRICS summit.

Indian prime minister Narendra Modi — who has also tried to mediate between Moscow and Kyiv — said on Tuesday he wanted the conflict to be resolved ‘peacefully’.

‘We totally support efforts to quickly restore peace and stability,’ he said.

New Delhi has walked a delicate tightrope since Moscow launched its offensive, pledging humanitarian support for Kyiv while avoiding explicit condemnation of Moscow’s actions.

South African president Cyril Ramaphosa has also urged an end to the conflict.

Starting in 2009 with four members — Brazil, Russia, India and China — BRICS has expanded to include other emerging nations, including South Africa, Egypt and Iran.

NATO member Turkey said last month it had asked to join the group and president Recep Tayyip Erdogan told delegates Thursday that ‘we are determined to further our dialogue with the BRICS family, with whom we have developed close relations based on mutual respect’.​

 

[Saif]

G7 to give Ukraine $50b from Russian assets profits

G7 leaders have finalized details surrounding a $50 billion loan to aid Kyiv, backed by profits from Russian sovereign assets frozen after its invasion of Ukraine, according to a statement released Friday...

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G7 to give Ukraine $50b from Russian assets profits
Agence France-Presse . Washington 27 October, 2024, 00:06

G7 leaders have finalized details surrounding a $50 billion loan to aid Kyiv, backed by profits from Russian sovereign assets frozen after its invasion of Ukraine, according to a statement released Friday.

Leaders of the Group of Seven wealthy democracies said they ‘have reached a consensus on how to deliver’ the loans of approximately $50 billion, with an aim to start disbursing funds by the end of this year.

Their announcement came as world financial leaders gathered in Washington this week for meetings hosted by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

Finance ministers have ‘agreed on a technical solution ensuring consistency, coordination, fair distribution of lending, and solidarity among all G7 partners,’ the statement said.

They called on Moscow to end its war and pay for damage caused to Ukraine.

This week, US president Joe Biden said that as part of the G7 package, the United States would provide $20 billion in loans to Ukraine, to be paid back by the interest earned from immobilized Russian sovereign assets.

US treasury secretary Janet Yellen signed a statement Wednesday with her Ukrainian counterpart Sergii Marchenko marking their intent to enter into the loan.

The move also committed that new United States or Ukrainian tax dollars would not be the source of repayment.

Economic concerns remain top-of-mind for US voters, with just over a week to go before the country’s presidential election on November 5.

Washington aims to provide at least $10 billion of the loans for economic support, with the other half expected to take the form of military aid.

But this will require additional authorization from Congress.

The remaining $30 billion in loans is set to come from a combination of G7 partners, including the European Union, United Kingdom, Canada and Japan, US officials said.

The EU, which has frozen roughly $235 billion of Russian central bank funds -- the vast bulk of immobilised Russian assets worldwide -- said it would contribute approximately $18 billion ($19.4 billion).

Russian missile strikes killed five people including a child in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro last night, while a teenager and another person died in attacks on Kyiv and the surrounding region, officials said Saturday.

The strikes came less than 48 hours after Russia finished hosting a three-day summit of the BRICS group of emerging economies in the city of Kazan, where President Vladimir Putin faced calls from world leaders to end the conflict.

The strikes on Dnipro late Friday killed five people and damaged multiple buildings including a hospital, authorities said.

More than a dozen other people were wounded in the city, including children, Dnipropetrovsk region governor Sergiy Lysak said on Telegram.

Separate night attacks on the capital Kyiv and surrounding region left two people dead, including a teenage girl who was killed in a drone strike on an apartment building, according to regional authorities.

The Russian military said on Saturday it had captured the frontline village of Oleksandropol in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, where it has made a string of advances in recent months.​

 

[Saif]

Moscow will respond

President Vladimir Putin said yesterday that Russia’s defence ministry was working on different ways to respond if the United States and its Nato allies help Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with long-range Western missiles.

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Moscow will respond

Putin warns of retaliation if West helps Ukraine to strike deep into Russia

President Vladimir Putin said yesterday that Russia's defence ministry was working on different ways to respond if the United States and its Nato allies help Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with long-range Western missiles.

The 2-1/2-year-old Ukraine war has triggered the biggest confrontation between Russia and the West since the depths of the Cold War, and Russian officials say the war is now entering its most dangerous phase.

Russia has been signalling to the United States and its allies for weeks that if they give permission to Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory with Western-supplied missiles, then Moscow will consider it a major escalation.

Putin said on September 12 that Western approval for such a step would mean "the direct involvement of Nato countries, the United States and European countries in the war in Ukraine" because Nato military infrastructure and personnel would have to be involved in the targeting and firing of the missiles.

Putin said that it was too early to say exactly how Russia would react to such a move but that Moscow would have to respond accordingly and different options were being examined.

"(The Russian defence ministry) is thinking about how to respond to the possible long-range strikes on Russian territory, it will offer a range of responses," Putin told Russian state TV's top Kremlin reporter, Pavel Zarubin.

With Russia advancing at the fastest rate in eastern Ukraine since the first months of the invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been pleading with the West to allow Kyiv to fire deep into Russia with Western missiles.

The US has not said publicly if it will allow Ukraine to strike Russia, but some US officials are deeply sceptical that doing so would make a significant difference in the war.​

 

[Saif]

Russian army claims new advance in east Ukraine

Russia said Sunday its military had advanced further in east Ukraine, capturing a frontline village just a few kilometres north of a key Ukrainian-held industrial hub...

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Russian army claims new advance in east Ukraine
Agence France-Presse . Moscow 28 October, 2024, 00:20

Russia said Sunday its military had advanced further in east Ukraine, capturing a frontline village just a few kilometres north of a key Ukrainian-held industrial hub.

Moscow has made steady gains on the battlefield for months, pressing their advantage against overstretched and outmanned Ukrainian forces.

Russian army units ‘liberated the settlement of Izmailovka,’ the Russian defence ministry said in a daily briefing, using the Russian spelling for the village.

Izmailivka had a population of just under 200 people before the conflict.

It lies eight kilometres north of the key industrial hub of Kurakhove and just a few kilometres north of Kurakhivka, a small town on a stretch of frontline Moscow is trying to surround.

The announcement came a few hours after Russia claimed it shot down 51 Ukrainian drones above several of its regions, including near the border.

Russian president Vladimir Putin warned on Sunday that Moscow would ‘respond’ if the West allowed Ukraine to use longer-range weapons against his territory.

‘It’s too early to say yet, but of course our military department is thinking about it and will offer various responses,’ Putin told a state TV reporter in remarks aired Sunday.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has for months been asking his Western allies for permission to use long-range missiles against targets deep inside Russian territory, arguing the move would ‘motivate’ Moscow to seek peace.

The United States and Britain signalled a decision on the matter was imminent last month, but later delayed the move after Putin warned they risked putting NATO ‘at war’ with Moscow.

Putin said on Sunday he hoped the West had listened to that warning.

‘They didn’t tell me anything about it, but I hope they heard,’ the Russian leader said.​