[🇧🇩] A Strategic Analysis of Bangladesh Myanmar Relationship

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Myanmar's stance on Saint Martin's
We can go back a bit in order to discern Myanmar's stance on Saint Martin's Island. In 2018 Myanmar claimed that this was their island. In October that year, the website of Myanmar's population affair's ministry and another government website of the Myanmar Information Management Unit, depicted Saint Martin's as a part of Myanmar in their map. Myanmar's population affair's ministry website even gave a figure of the total number of Saint Martin's residents, taking that as part of Myanmar's population.

The Bangladesh government summoned the Myanmar ambassador in Dhaka and issued a note of protest, after which these details were removed, though for long they kept the colour of Saint Martin's the same as the rest of Myanmar on the map (The Wire, 14 October 2018). This effort was made seven years after the maritime boundary dispute with Myanmar was resolved in 2011 by means of the ITLOS ruling. That means even after accepting the international tribunal's ruling on the maritime boundary, they still had their eyes on Saint Martin's.

There could be another explanation. Saint Martin's Island may be an excuse to instigate armed conflict with Bangladesh. Such a situation had arisen in November 2008. Myanmar at the time had sent the South Korean company, Daewoo, 50 nautical miles southwest of Saint Martin's Island to explore for oil and gas. The naval forces of both sides took up a confrontational stance. The matter was finally diffused through diplomatic talks. That incident was before the ITLOS ruling on the maritime boundary. But with there being no difference in the incidents before and order the maritime boundary was demarcated, it seems that Myanmar hasn't changed it viewpoint regarding Saint Martin's.

Can Myanmar create such a situation where conflict with Bangladesh will be inevitable? This question can be raised because in February this year, the director general of RAB, M Khurshid Hossain, had said Myanmar from a long time back had been wanting to engage in war with Bangladesh (Prothom Alo, 24 February 2024). He had said that Myanmar was going out of its way to instigate conflict.

Certain security experts have commented that the civil war in Myanmar, particularly in Arakan, will not spill over into Bangladesh (Voice of America, 7 February 2024). But ever since the rebels groups started their comprehensive 'Operation 1027' from last October, this had spilled over in various ways into Bangladesh territory, creating a security threat for Bangladesh.

To be continued...............​

 

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Is Saint Martin an excuse or an objective?

The second reason why attention should be paid to Saint Martin's Island is the statements made by Bangladesh's politicians in the domestic political scene. It began in June last year when Jashod leader Hasanun Huq Inu and Workers Party leader Rashed Khan Menon, allies of the government, said in parliament that the pressure from the US for free and fair election actually had nothing to do with the election, but was aimed at building a base on Saint Martin's. Menon said, "The US wants Saint Martin's" (Banik Barta, 15 June 2023). Inu said, "Why is America suddenly so interest? Do they want democracy? Or Saint Martin's?" (Kaler Kantha, 19 June 2023). Prime minister Sheikh Hasina at a press briefing said, "It's not difficult to remain in power by leasing Saint Martin's Island out" Prothom Alo, 21 June 2023).

Prime minister Sheikh Hasina said that the opposition BNP wanted to sell or lease Saint Martin's out so that they can come to power. In response to this state, the spokesperson of the US embassy in Dhaka Bryan Schiller said the US respects Bangladesh's sovereignty and that includes Saint Martin's. A similar statement was made by the US state department spokesperson Matthew Miller in response to a question posed by journalist Mushfique Fazal Ansarey. He said that the US had never spoken about taking over Saint Martin's Island (Prothom Alo, 28 June 2023).

Since the 1980's politicians have been talking about the US wanting to set up a base on Saint Martin's Island, but the US had also rejected such speculations. The US ambassador in Dhaka at the time, Mary Ann Peters at the time, on 2 July 2003 had said at a discussion held at the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS), the US has no plan, need or desire to establish a military base in Saint Martin's Islam, Chattogram or anywhere in Bangladesh.

To be continued............​

 

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Even so, certain politicians of Bangladesh now and then make such remarks and the India media does so too. Back in 2012, when the US secretary of state at the time Hillary Clinton visited Bangladesh, the Indian Times Group's TV channel 'Time Now' in May claimed in a report aired around the end of May that the US wants to set up a military base in the Bay of Bengal to contain China's growing influence in the region, and this is a matter of concern for India. It was also said that the US wants a naval base in Chattogram.

Without any form of evidence, it was claimed that during her Bangladesh trip, Hillary Clinton had discussed the matter with Bangladesh officials. This comment was made at a discussion. Present at the discussion, the US state department spokesperson Victoria Nuland rejected the claim. Even so, immediately after this Rashed Khan Menon raised the issue in Bangladesh's parliament. The foreign minister at the time, Dipu Moni, said that she had no such conversation with Hillary (bdnews24.com, 1 June 2012).

The India media went as far as to say that the US was wanting this base for their Seventh Fleet. Based on that report, the Bangladesh foreign ministry issued a statement that this report was baseless. The US embassy also refuted the claim (The Daily Star, 2 June 2012). Interestingly, those claiming that a country wants to take lease or ownership of Saint Martin's Island, are not offering any tangible evidence.

The editorial of New Age on 23 June said that "Citizens need to know whether the United States has, in fact, sought to lay its hands on the island in the Bay of Bengal that constitutes the territory of Bangladesh orally or in writing. Who made the offer? To whom? When? Where? The government owes the citizens a statement, notifying and giving clarification on all such issues regarding Saint Martin's Island."

From the 1980's Bangladesh's military and security analysts have been saying that because of its size, shape, location and formation, Saint Martin's is not suitable for any sort of base to be set up there (Commodore Kazi Imdadul Huq, Controversy Surrounding the Alleged Lease of Saint martin's Island, The Security, 6 August 2023). The statement of the security analysts regarding the island is clear, "Saint Martin's Island is not that important in a strategic sense. It is a very small coral island. From a security angle too, the island is not very safe" (M Sakhawat Hossain, Prothom Alo, 16 June 2024).

Despite all of this when a section of Bangladesh's politicians, the India media and some Indian analysts raise questions about the US taking lease of Saint Martin's Island or building a base for the Seventh Fleet in Chattogram, it can't just be brushed off any cursory comments or anti-American statements. Questions can be asked as to whether such discussions concerning the tensions of Saint Martin's are indicative of some other sort of plot or move regarding the island's security. The objective may be to ease the path for some other outside power's direct or indirect presence in Bangladesh's maritime territory ostensibly for security reasons. It is imperative to ensure that the situation does not take such a turn,

* Ali Riaz is distinguished professor of the Department of Politics and Government at the Illinois State University in the US, nonresident senior fellow of the Atlantic Council, and president of the American Institute of Bangladesh Studies.​

 

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Can Myanmar make a nuclear bomb?

Myanmar's alleged uranium trade raises concerns over nuclear bomb ambitions and rebel involvement, as reports suggest uranium smuggling by rebel groups and mafia connections.

en.prothomalo.com

Can Myanmar make a nuclear bomb?
Altaf Parvez
Published: 18 Jun 2024, 20: 35

It is being reported in the foreign media that uranium is being traded in Myanmar AFP

Neighbouring countries have no end of concern over Myanmar. Tension rises further if news is heard of uranium, an element used to make nuclear weapons, is being traded in Myanmar. This is happening currently. It is being reported in the foreign media that uranium is being traded in Myanmar. The question is, whether the matter is limited to trade only or they have any other programme as a country in this regard?

Old buzz--new tension

Ahead of recent newspaper reports, it was published that there are uranium mines in several places including the Shan state. They also get uranium as a by-product of gold mines. As a mineral resource, uranium has a demand worldwide as it is used in nuclear bombs.

Myanmar's Shan state is a rebel dominated area. In the area where it is said there is a uranium mine that is dominated by the 'Restoration Council of Shan State'. In the outside world, they are known as 'RCSS'. The name of its arms wing is Shan State Army-South. Its leader is Yawd Serk--a famous rebel leader.

The question is, how refined uranium is being found in Myanmar amid this uncertainty? Even of the matter of Myanmar creating a nuclear bomb is written off as a distant dream, the administration there has become weak due to the civil war raging there. In such circumstances, a subversive syndicate for an element like uranium is certain a matter of grave concern for countries in the neighbourhood.

The rise of Yawd Serk is from Golden Triangle's godfather Khun Sa's warrior society. On one hand he is one of the main characters of narcotics trade and Shan nationalism.

Name of Yawd Serk is being mentioned in the reports of uranium smuggling in Myanmar. It is being said he and his party RCSS gave responsibility to 'yakuza' mafia to sell uranium and collect modern arms including missiles.

US intelligence spent four years and identified as a fake Iranian general and were able to contact Takeshi Ebisawa of the syndicate in Thailand. The matter was leaked in this way. Ebisawa along with several of his associates are in custody of America.

Questions have naturally been raised over the veracity of these incidents. Questions have especially been raised about adding the yakuza of Japan to these incidents. Although these people are called terrorist mafia openly, the Japanese have a secret admiration for them. The administration in Japan also respects yakuzas for their nationalistic character.

Although they are mafia, they think they have a responsibility to look after the interests of Japan across Asia.

Yakuzas naturally don't view the West in a positive light. The West also criticises them strongly. However, much credible information of uranium smuggling has come from the US. They said the samples of uranium the Washington agents collected from the Japanese syndicate are suitable for making nuclear bombs.

Information published in 'Frontier Myanmar' says in connection with Yawd Serk, Ebisawa has 2000 kg Thorium-232 and 100 kg U-308 (Triuranium octaoxide) of Shan. With the help of Thai police, the US has examined samples of these in their labs.
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To be continued..................

 

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Tension multidimensional

If the speculations of uranium trade are true, there are two reasons for alarm. First, the government is not controlling all the mine areas. Some uranium mines are under the control of rebels- the rebels who are desperate for funds. As a commodity uranium would not be an unnatural source of funds for them. Also, there is a reason for tension over the mines controlled by the government as the military government is not transparent in its activities, and they are also trying to overcome the economic crisis by all means. Yawd Serk, meanwhile, denied his involvement. He has said he doesn't know what uranium is.

'Frontier Myanmar' in a report last April said uranium of Shan province seized from Japanese yakuzas was refined at the primary level. The question is, where did this refinery take place? Is there that technology inside Myanmar?

Earlier dreams of nuclear bombs

It was heard many times in the past that Myanmar has a 'dream' to make a nuclear bomb. The country, which has uranium, has an advantage for this aspiration. Myanmar's armed forces Tatmadaw once had an 'atomic unit'. Besides, it is heard that North Korea and Russia have cooperation in this regard. But there was a question over the credibility of these activities of the country.

Moreover, during the rule of Aung San Su Kiy, Myanmar joined an international initiative to stop the test of nuclear bombs. In the face of global boycott in October 2022, Russia declared to establish a nuclear power plant for 'peaceful necessity' Recently, there is news, Bamar army officers have taken training in Moscow and some of them are studying this technology. In such a backdrop, the recent news of the uranium trade has spread tension all around.

News for the first time was published in 2004 that the US maintained strong vigilance over Myanmar for making nuclear bombs. Washington suspects that North Korea may provide cooperation with Bamar generals in this programme.

In November 2008, doubt intensified as a 17-member team led by Myanmar's General Soe Win visited Pyongyang and a location where North Korea is believed to have stored their nuclear arms in a valley. In 2010, a general of Tatmadaw first admitted they were trying to get this technology from North Korea.

Meanwhile, the Myanmar government in a statement said they have no intention to make nuclear bombs, but they have the right to develop this technology for 'peaceful necessity'.

After this statement, the doubt has not decreased. At least, the incident of identifying the Japanese syndicate proves that the US continues its surveillance.

However, nothing can be said finally about the mystery of nuclear power in Myanmar. The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) is a famous organisation to resolve any tension on nuclear security. This organisation in an investigation has said they have not found any proof that Myanmar has a project for making nuclear arms. This does not mean that Myanmar does not have such a type of project. In particular, the country's relation with North Korea intensifies the suspicion.

The question is, how refined uranium is being found in Myanmar amid this uncertainty? Even of the matter of Myanmar creating a nuclear bomb is written off as a distant dream, the administration there has become weak due to the civil war raging there. In such circumstances, a subversive syndicate for an element like uranium is certain a matter of grave concern for countries in the neighbourhood.

* Altaf Parvez is a researcher on history.​