Chinese Defense Forum 
- Jan 26, 2024
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- Axis Group
All-weather friendship’ with Pakistan is increasingly becoming a liability for China
‘All-weather friendship’ with Pakistan is increasingly becoming a liability for ChinaAs the Spring Festival concludes, China welcomes its first foreign leader in the Year of the Snake—Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari. His visit, immediately following the Lunar New Year holidays, carries deep symbolic resonance. Traditionally, the Spring Festival is a time for family reunions and close bonds in China—a metaphor that underscores the close, familial ties Islamabad seeks to cultivate with Beijing.
A Shanghai-based commentator, Chen Yingqiang, linked Zardari’s trip to the fallout from US President Donald Trump’s decision to freeze foreign aid. He highlighted Pakistan’s efforts to salvage the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and its preference for China to mediate between Pakistan and the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan.
Yet, despite its seemingly momentous nature, this visit has received scant coverage in China’s mainstream media and little discussion on platforms like Weibo, suggesting waning public interest in Pakistan and, by extension, in China-Pakistan relations. Meanwhile, a spate of terrorist attacks targeting Chinese nationals involved in Chinese-funded projects, particularly along the CPEC, has only deepened Chinese scepticism regarding Pakistan’s reliability as a key partner.
A few years ago, Lin Minwang, a researcher at Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies, argued that China-Pakistan relations were strategically consistent and relatively obstacle-free. He noted that Pakistan had consistently supported China at pivotal historical junctures—transcending traditional alliances in favour of strategic calculus. Today, however, that assessment appears increasingly divorced from the prevailing narrative.
At present, Pakistan is far more vocal about the “ironclad” nature of its alliance with China than China itself. Pakistani officials have prominently underlined the sustainability and strategic importance of the CPEC. On Monday, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif reiterated that “CPEC is a vital cornerstone of Pakistan’s economic development and regional connectivity.” These assertions serve not only as internal affirmations but also as reminders to China of Pakistan’s strategic importance, particularly in the contest with India. But does this rhetoric mark the end of the era of an “all-weather friendship”? Chinese discourse might offer some clues.
Safety concerns for Chinese nationals
While China’s state media may underreport these issues, online discussions reveal mounting concerns over the safety and discrimination faced by Chinese nationals in Pakistan. Numerous videos circulating on Chinese social media show hotels in Pakistan refusing accommodation to Chinese individuals and highlighting racist remarks directed at them. However, the more critical issue remains the safety of Chinese workers engaged in CPEC projects.An article in Shanghai Observer pointed out that while terrorism has long plagued Pakistan, the security situation is now deteriorating. There is a consensus that, while the situation is dire, Pakistan is exerting efforts in counter-terrorism and protecting Chinese nationals. A narrative has emerged portraying Pakistan as a victim of terrorism, emphasising the necessity of China-Pakistan counter-terror operations and cooperation.
Hu Shisheng, director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, argued that China has a substantial number of personnel and projects in Pakistan and is genuinely invested in assisting the country’s development. However, the worsening security conditions have compelled the Pakistani government to become more amenable to counter-terrorism cooperation and joint efforts.
While offline discussions regarding Pakistan’s counter-terrorism efforts may be widespread, only a limited number of commentaries survive online, where questions are raised about the effectiveness of these measures. An anonymous Chinese commentator remarked that the increasing number of terrorist incidents in Pakistan, with Chinese nationals among the targets, indicates that Pakistan’s fight against terrorism has been ineffective.
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Limited utility of Pakistan
A Chinese commentator hailed the inauguration of the New Gwadar International Airport in Pakistan as a strategic milestone for the CPEC, positioning Gwadar as a crucial hub for regional connectivity. He argued that the CPEC is more than an economic initiative—it represents a strategic realignment that counters Western efforts to contain China while heightening India’s concerns over a potential Chinese military presence in the region.Nonetheless, the China-Pakistan relationship is no longer as seamless as it once was. Pakistan’s strategic utility for China appears increasingly limited. Today, Pakistan functions largely as a cheerleader against Western pressures, a loyal supporter of the One China Policy, and, to a diminishing extent, as a strategically positioned partner due to the Gwadar port. Its utility in countering India has significantly waned, as New Delhi now seems better prepared to deal with a two-front conflict—the very scenario that once underpinned China-Pakistan cooperation.
Pakistan now appears more dependent on China than vice versa. The recent launch of Pakistan’s PRSC-EO1 satellite using the Chinese Long March-2D carrier rocket from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, along with China’s development projects in sensitive areas like Balochistan, illustrate its deep involvement. With the dismantling of the USAID, China may prove to be a more reliable source of aid for Pakistan.
Yet for China, the relationship is increasingly becoming a liability. Chinese citizens are now at risk in Pakistan, and the necessity of counter-terrorism operations to safeguard the CPEC is straining China’s resources. This is particularly noteworthy amid China’s own territorial disputes and its ongoing rivalry with the US. No amount of diplomatic optics can conceal the growing human cost: Chinese nationals in Pakistan are bearing the brunt of a partnership that is no longer delivering commensurate benefits to China.
Despite these challenges, Zardari’s visit will be labelled as a success, CPEC is likely to persist, and with it, the rhetoric of China-Pakistan “all-weather friendship.” However, as strategic calculations evolve, China may have to confront a reality where the costs of the partnership increasingly outweigh the benefits.
Sana Hashmi, PhD, is a fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation and George HW Bush Foundation for US-China Relations. She tweets @sanahashmi1. Views are personal.
(Edited by Aamaan Alam Khan)
