Bangladesh and ASEAN: A bridge too far?
Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus receives Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim at the Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport in Dhaka on October 4, 2024. Photo: CA’s Press Wing
It seems that recently, Bangladesh has been trying to redefine its foreign policy with a pivot towards Southeast Asia, signalling its intent to strengthen diplomatic and commercial ties with countries in the region. Bangladesh's strategic decision to align itself more closely with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) highlights the country's desire to diversify its foreign relations and assert itself as a regional player. The move reflects a more pragmatic approach in Bangladesh's quest for economic growth and geopolitical relevance, but it also exposes deep-seated challenges that could impede its progress towards ASEAN membership.
Bangladesh's foreign policy has long been characterised by the guiding principle of "friendship to all, malice towards none." Historically, this approach has resulted in an alliance structure heavily shaped by its reliance on India and its dependence on Western markets, particularly for its booming RMG industry. However, as the geopolitical landscape has evolved, Bangladesh has recognised the need to reduce its over-reliance on these traditional allies and diversify its economic and strategic partnerships. ASEAN, with its dynamic economies, strategic location, and integrated market, represents an attractive alternative.
For Bangladesh, the rationale behind this pivot is multifaceted. The global economic landscape is undergoing significant changes, and Bangladesh's reliance on Western markets for exports, primarily textiles, has made the country vulnerable to shifting trade dynamics and economic volatility. The growth trajectories of ASEAN economies offer new trade opportunities, and its collective GDP of over $3 trillion presents a significant opportunity for Bangladesh to tap into vibrant markets. Furthermore, ASEAN's focus on regional integration aligns well with Bangladesh's economic priorities, which include expanding foreign investment, increasing exports, and developing its infrastructure.
The desire to engage with ASEAN is not just aspirational but pragmatic. Bangladesh's position in South Asia, with its strategic access to the Bay of Bengal and its proximity to major global trade routes, offers ASEAN countries valuable partnerships. Moreover, Bangladesh's booming garment industry, which forms the backbone of its economy, complements ASEAN's manufacturing base, opening avenues for deeper economic collaboration. Beyond economic interests, Bangladesh's closer ties with ASEAN could amplify its voice in regional security and diplomatic matters as the country seeks to enhance its geopolitical influence.
However, the pathway to ASEAN membership is fraught with complexities. One of the most pressing challenges is Bangladesh's internal governance issues, which have raised concerns among both regional and international observers. In the past decade, Bangladesh has faced serious democratic setbacks, with three consecutive controversial elections marred by allegations of rigging, voter suppression, and a lack of political pluralism. The Awami League's dominance, often seen as authoritarian, had raised questions about the country's commitment to democratic principles. Bangladesh's inability to resolve these issues has not only tarnished its domestic political climate but also raised doubts about its readiness to join a bloc like ASEAN, which prioritises good governance, stability, and consensus-driven decision-making.
Corruption remains a significant hurdle. Bangladesh is consistently ranked among the most corrupt countries in the world, with systemic graft permeating nearly every level of government. Public institutions are plagued by inefficiencies, and economic opportunities are often hijacked by powerful elites with political connections. This corruption has stymied development, alienated foreign investors, and tarnished Bangladesh's international reputation. It is a reality that cannot be overlooked if Bangladesh is to have a serious shot at ASEAN membership.
In addition to governance challenges, Bangladesh faces concerns over migration and its potential impact on ASEAN member states. Historically, Bangladeshi migration has been predominantly directed toward Western countries, with millions of Bangladeshis living in countries like the US, UK, and the Middle East. However, if Bangladesh succeeds in joining ASEAN, this migration trend could shift, with many Bangladeshis opting to migrate to ASEAN countries, particularly the more developed ones like Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand.
This potential increase in migration raises significant concerns about maintaining social cohesion within ASEAN, an organisation that places a high premium on regional stability and harmony. The influx of migrants could strain social services and trigger concerns about unemployment and ethnic tensions in host countries. ASEAN countries, with their diverse cultures, religions, and political systems, are highly sensitive to these issues, and Bangladesh must be proactive in addressing these concerns. Ensuring that migration is managed responsibly and does not burden ASEAN countries' social and economic systems will be crucial for Bangladesh's integration into the bloc.
Moreover, Bangladesh's pursuit of ASEAN membership is complicated by the unresolved Rohingya crisis, which could further strain its relations with some ASEAN members. Myanmar, a full member of ASEAN, has been a staunch opponent of Bangladesh's efforts to repatriate the Rohingya refugees currently living in Bangladesh. The ongoing political tensions over the Rohingya crisis could create significant friction within ASEAN, especially as Myanmar could oppose Bangladesh's accession to the bloc in retaliation for its criticism of Myanmar's handling of the crisis. The complex nature of ASEAN's decision-making process, which requires unanimous approval from all members, means that this could be a major stumbling block for Bangladesh's aspirations to join the organisation.
Despite these challenges, Bangladesh's engagement with ASEAN is not without merit. Bangladesh's growing influence within the region, coupled with its strategic geographic location, provides significant opportunities for collaboration. The country's burgeoning garment industry, along with its rapidly expanding infrastructure and manufacturing sectors, aligns with ASEAN's goals for regional economic integration. Furthermore, Bangladesh's commitment to climate change mitigation, sustainable development, and regional cooperation could offer synergies with ASEAN's broader strategic objectives. If Bangladesh can demonstrate that it is capable of resolving its internal governance issues, tackling corruption, and managing migration responsibly, it could become a valuable partner in ASEAN's quest for greater regional unity and economic stability.
The potential benefits of ASEAN membership for Bangladesh extend beyond economic considerations. Closer ties with ASEAN could open up new avenues for collaboration in areas such as technology, education, public health, and infrastructure. These partnerships would not only drive economic growth but also contribute to a more resilient regional landscape capable of addressing shared challenges. Bangladesh's engagement with ASEAN could also serve as a platform to amplify its voice in global discussions, particularly in forums like the United Nations and the World Trade Organization.
The coming years will be crucial in determining whether Bangladesh can navigate its complex challenges and successfully integrate into ASEAN, balancing its ambitions with the realities of governance, regional dynamics, and international diplomacy. For now, Bangladesh stands at a crossroads, with the potential to reshape its future and play a more prominent role in Southeast Asia—if it can overcome the obstacles that stand in its way.
Dr Rakib Al Hasan is a physician, author, activist & international award-winning youth leader of Bangladesh. He is the founder and executive director of the Centre for Partnership Initiative.
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