South Asia India's rise as a manufacturing powerhouse making China nervous as geoeconomic advantage shifts

[Bilal9]

May be. While being a spokesperson of China, you do not know that you are reducing China from a manufacturer to part supplier. Which one is batter? TO manufacture finish goods or supplier of component?

Let's focus on India's parts localization effort for making cars, which is an abject failure. I don't shill for China, but the facts speak for themselves, and most of those come from Indian media itself.

As of 2025, India's automotive industry aims to achieve around 25% parts localization in vehicle assembly, although the localization of electronic components remains a significant challenge due to reliance on imports amid the drive toward EV cars with heavily embedded electronic components, both of which spell trouble for parts localization in India.

The Indian government is actively promoting domestic parts production (instead of Chinese parts imports) to reduce this dependency by its "Make in India" subsidies, a program which has also become an abject failure. You can't just throw money at a problem and not provide deeper policy support.

The "Make in India" initiative is widely considered a qualified failure by Indian policy thinktanks, as it has not met its ambitious goals, such as increasing the manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP or creating the promised number of jobs. Instead, the share of manufacturing in GDP has decreased, and job creation has fallen short of expectations.

As Modi makes ambitious pitch in the US, Make in India is qualified failure 10 years on

Generous business incentives, foreign investment do not solve the fundamental problems of a huge skills deficit and the complexity of doing business in India.

scroll.in

Govt failed to realise 'Make in India' due to 'complete inaction', says Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge

Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge criticised the Indian government's 'Make in India' initiative, accusing it of failing to create jobs and utilise funds effectively. He questioned the decline in manufacturing's contribution to GDP, the decrease in manufacturing growth, and the under-utilization...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

India is blocking its own road to a manufacturing renaissance | White paper | Hinrich Foundation

To truly revive its industrial sectors, New Delhi has to do more to remove policy roadblocks and level the playing field for foreign and domestic investors. Download paper.

www.hinrichfoundation.com

 

[Bilal9]

Don't drink Indian water! Indian water is garbage water! It is entirely composed of Escherichia coli!

Water Quality by Country 2025

Discover population, economy, health, and more with the most comprehensive global statistics at your fingertips.

worldpopulationreview.com

View attachment 20428View attachment 20429

@Bilal9 @Saif bro. I'm glad to see Bangladesh win against India again

Thanks for the link.

Despite virulent Indian propaganda, Bangladesh is literally a safer place to live and work compared to India.

Water quality matters to manufacturing - it is one of the primary health indicators for a productive manufacturing oriented country. People are the main factors in manufacturing, and if you can't keep your people healthy, then manufacturing will suffer.

Our open defecation is near zero compared to India, which has 60% plus of it. Hygiene is built into the popular culture unlike India. Every house (even those in villages) have a toilet.

Still - Bangladesh has a long way to go to achieve China's level of societal discipline, hygiene and living standards. A work in progress I guess.

In any case - I don't think I should criticize Indians for having only 25% parts localization in their Auto Industry, as ours in Bangladesh is a lot less. However one can say Indian market is eight times larger and they can easily make a case for way higher parts localization.

If Chinese can make 100% parts localization, and Indian auto market and population is as large as China's - what is setting India back so much?

Even if you export large numbers of cars from India, and if you make assembled cars from all Chinese parts, Chinese are keeping most of the high level value addition (for making said parts like electronics, ECUs, engine components and transmissions).

All India is doing is bolting things together, which requires very little skill. Like one of the Pakistani brothers said, this is useless tailoring or "Darzi business".

 

[Bilal9]

Guys - I will need to delete all out of context off-topic posts. Please do not post any further ones.

 

[Bilal9]

We are now forth largest car manufacturer. We shall take of Japan followed by US in few years.

What on earth are you talking about ??

India is in 22nd place globally. Check facts please BEFORE you post.

List of countries by vehicle exports - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Krishna with Flute]

What on earth are you talking about ??

India is in 22nd place globally. Check facts please BEFORE you post.

List of countries by vehicle exports - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Do you understand the difference between manufacturing and export?

This will help.

List of countries by motor vehicle production - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Krishna with Flute]

Guys - I will need to delete all out of context off-topic posts. Please do not post any further ones.

If you can check dirty guy, all threads can run fine. This MF keep copy posting same post again and again. Hundreds of times, he keep posting Same picture. Kick this MF out if you want any quality discussion.

 

[Krishna with Flute]

Guys - I will need to delete all out of context off-topic posts. Please do not post any further ones.

Look at even export of automobile parts. Export rose by over 22%.

India's auto exports zoom 22% in Q1 on record car shipments; Maruti grabs nearly half the pie | IBEF

India’s automobile exports rose 22% YoY in Q1 FY26 to 1.46 million units, led by record passenger vehicle shipments and robust growth in two-wheelers, commercial, and three-wheeler segments.

www.ibef.org

 

[Bilal9]

Look at even export of automobile parts. Export rose by over 22%.

India's auto exports zoom 22% in Q1 on record car shipments; Maruti grabs nearly half the pie | IBEF

India’s automobile exports rose 22% YoY in Q1 FY26 to 1.46 million units, led by record passenger vehicle shipments and robust growth in two-wheelers, commercial, and three-wheeler segments.

www.ibef.org

The prospects for 2025 does not look good following higher car sales in 2024. 2024 increase was driven by post covid pent-up demand.

India is an interesting story - Two wheelers (and even 3 wheeler autos - tuktuks) count as "Cars" in India.

Two wheelers count as 78% for all "vehicles" made in India. Actual four wheeler cars are just 17% of this number.

Here is a nice wrap-up from January 2025 (note the yellow highlighted sections).

A year in review : The Indian auto sector | 2024

Read our latest insights on A year in review : The Indian auto sector | 2024

climatedot.org

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A year in review : The Indian auto sector | 2024​

Mitt Siddhpura, Akhilesh Magal on E-mobility
January 17, 2025

As we close the chapter on 2024, India’s automotive sector reflects a dynamic narrative of challenges, resilience, and transformation. From post-COVID growth to a recent slowdown, shifting consumer preferences, and reduced EV subsidies, the industry reflects a mix of resilience and uncertainty.

With insights backed by data, charts, and expert analysis, we explore the journey of the auto sector from pre-pandemic highs to the uncertainties of today, and what 2025 and beyond might hold for the Indian economy’s critical pillar - the automotive industry.

Background​

India's auto sector is a cornerstone of the country’s economic growth, significantly contributing to GDP, employment generation, and attracting Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs).

Urbanization, rising incomes, and infrastructure development are playing a pivotal role in the demand and growth of the auto sector. Further the movement of the auto market towards cars, especially SUVs suggest that cars are an important positional good i.e. something that people derive social standing from. Additionally, the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is central to India's sustainability goals, supported by government initiatives like FAME and PLI schemes. Hence, monitoring the sector’s growth is key to understanding India's economic trajectory, global competitiveness and clean-tech innovation.

In this article, we delve into how the automotive sector has evolved over the years, focusing on its post-COVID recovery and outlook for 2025 and beyond.

Looking back | The growth journey - 2017 to 2024​

During the pre-COVID era (2017–2020), India’s automotive industry experienced steady growth, driven by consistent demand and incremental sales across segments. However, the COVID-19 outbreak (2020–21) brought unprecedented challenges. While the pandemic was a global phenomenon, India’s economy faced a sharper impact due to stricter lockdown measures and mobility restrictions. This led to production halts, supply chain disruptions, and a significant decline in consumer demand.

The industry also witnessed a notable surge in automobile prices, driven by two key factors:

1. A global shortage of critical automobile components, particularly semiconductors.
2. The simultaneous implementation of BS-VI emission norms, which increased production costs.

These factors collectively led to a 50% increase in Average Selling Price (ASP) of passenger vehicles from ₹7.6 lakh in FY19 to ₹11.5 lakh in FY24, prompting a shift in consumer preferences.

Figure 1: Average Selling Price (ASP) of passenger vehicles



However, post COVID session (2021-2024) has witnessed pent-up demand, a strong recovery and rebound in sales despite the significant hike in automobile prices.

Figure 2: Vehicular category-wise sales | 2017-2024

While the industry observed a growing demand for premium and aspirational vehicles, sales of entry-level models struggled. During the first half of the FY22 compared to the same period in 2018–19, sales of passenger cars, including entry-level hatchbacks, declined by 24.7%, while utility vehicle sales surged by an impressive 111.6%. As reported in The Indian Express, cars priced above ₹10 lakh experienced a fivefold faster growth compared to those priced below ₹10 lakh.

This trend underscores the ongoing distress in the lower end of the auto segment, which has a cascading effect on the entry-level car market. Many consumers in this segment typically upgrade from two-wheelers, but the economic strain has limited their ability to do so. India, with a car ownership rate of just 7.5%, lags far behind other nations, reflecting its nascent automotive penetration.

Figure 3: Car ownership across various countries

Two-wheelers (2Ws) have been the back-bone of India’s auto-sector, remaining the most preferred mode of transportation for millions. In 2024, 2Ws constituted for ~78% of all vehicular sales.

Figure 4: Vehicular sales by category | 2024

Furthermore, 2Ws sales have shown significant progress with a double digit growth rate of 11% Year-on-Year (YoY) in 2024.

Figure 5: Two-wheeler sales | 2017-2024

However, a closer look at model-wise sales of two-wheelers reveals a notable trend similar to four-wheelers: the growing premiumization of vehicles. Between 2023 and 2024, premium two-wheelers outperformed mass-market commuter models, recording significantly higher growth rates as outlined in the figure below.

Figure 6: Two-wheeler vehicle segment growth rate FY2023-24

Moreover, while two-wheeler sales are still lower than the peak in 2019 in the pre-pandemic era, the four-wheeler sales have significantly increased by 30% in the same period.

Figure 7: Four-wheeler sales | 2017-2024

2024 | The beginning of a slowdown?​

The post-pandemic recovery of the Indian automotive industry has been a story of resilience and growth, but 2024 marks the beginning of an industry-wide slowdown after two consecutive years of strong demand. While overall vehicle sales remained subdued for most of the year, October stood out as an exception due to the alignment of three major festivals—Navratri, Dhanteras, and Diwali—in the same month.

Figure 8: Vehicular category-wise monthly sales | 2024

Uncharacteristically, December—the month typically associated with end-of-year discounts and high sales—saw a decline in demand, disrupting historical trends. According to an Economic Times report, Indian car dealers recorded a surprising 2% drop in sales in December 2024, reflecting broader economic pressures.