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[🇧🇩] Trump's Victory/Tariff/ Bangladesh

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[🇧🇩] Trump's Victory/Tariff/ Bangladesh
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Never saw such crisis in 40 years: AK Azad
Staff Correspondent Dhaka
Published: 20 Jul 2025, 16: 17

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AK Azad, managing director of Ha-Meem Group Prothom Alo

AK Azad, one of the country’s leading exporters, a prominent business leader, and the Managing Director of Ha-Meem Group, said he has never seen such a crisis in the export sector in his 40 years of business experience.

He said, “We businesspeople have brought this sector to a respectable position, but now we are disappointed and frustrated.”

Sharing his experience from a recent meeting with a brand partner, AK Azad said, “A major brand called me to their head office and informed me that they tried to understand the position of the Bangladesh government through their own government. Their comment was: ‘Your position is weak; no good outcomes are expected.’” This made AK Azad frustrated.

In response to the situation, AK Azad called several advisers. He said, all of them took the issue seriously. The next day, the commerce adviser called him and said that apparently, Azad’s actions created a stir, and everyone was now calling the commerce adviser.

AK Azad further said that the adviser told him 95 per cent of the issues had already been resolved. The remaining 5 per cent were being worked on with various ministries. What that businesspeople would do by joining various discussions. He argued that even if the government loses revenue of Tk 20-30 billion, the country would benefit more if there is an additional export of USD 5 billion. He believes that this initiative will succeed.

Given the current context, AK Azad highlighted the buyers’ positions, saying, “One of my buyers emailed me saying that if the tariff imposed on Bangladesh starting from 1 August is not lifted, I will have to bear 35 per cent of the tariff myself. The question is—how am I supposed to bear that cost?”

AK Azad cited his experience from Indonesia. He said, “I have a joint venture in Indonesia. There, the government and businesses work together. They appointed lobbyists and engaged in discussions at every level. But in Bangladesh, we did not get such an opportunity.”

On the topic of the interim government’s tenure, AK Azad said, “You are saying that you are in charge for seven or eight months, and then you will leave. But where will we go then? To whom are you handing us over?”

AK Azad added, “Everyone thinks that there is someone above us who will blow a whistle and all problems will vanish. Because of this belief, we are not being evaluated at all; there is no thought of appointing any lobbyists either.”

Yesterday, Saturday, the government announced that the USTR (Office of the United States Trade Representative) will not determine tariffs. That it will be decided by the Trump administration. Addressing the government, AK Azad said, “If you can, please try to act at that level.”

The government said that they have already started the process of appointing lobbyists and taking other necessary steps quickly. But AK Azad said, “At this point, we do not even know how far we can go or what can be achieved by appointing lobbyists. Bangladesh is going through such a difficult situation.”​
 

MoU signed for US wheat import amid tariff threats
Staff Correspondent 21 July, 2025, 00:08

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Food adviser Ali Imam Majumder, among others, poses for a photo after the signing of a memorandum of understanding with the United States for importing wheat at the ministry in Dhaka on Sunday. | Focus Bangla photo

Bangladesh on Sunday signed a memorandum of understanding with the United States to import 7 lakh tonnes of wheat annually for the next five years amid the threat of facing 35 per cent US tariff on its exports from the next month.

The US is pressing Bangladesh to reduce the trade gap, which is in favour of Bangladesh, by importing more US products to get a favourable tariff deal. Dhaka is negotiating with Washington for reducing the tariff rate to a tolerable level to safeguard its exports to the US market. Bangladesh is waiting for the third round of tariff talks with the US as the previous two rounds failed to resolve key issues, including the tariff rate.


The MoU was signed by Md Abul Hasanat Humayun Kabir, director general of the Food Department, and Joseph K Sower, vice-president of the US Wheat Association, in the capital Dhaka on Sunday.

Food adviser Ali Imam Majumder told New Age that the MoU was not a binding agreement.New age services

‘Still, the MoU will provide an opportunity for building trust and a wider area of mutual trade cooperation between Bangladesh and the US amid negotiations over tariff issues between the two trading partners,’ he said.

On July 8, US president Donald Trump imposed 35 per cent tariff on Bangladeshi export products, effective from August 1, on top of sectoral tariffs of up to 15 per cent.

The country’s overall exports to the US were $8.4 billion in 2024, with the readymade garments accounting for $7.34 billion. In the year, the country imported US goods worth $2.2 billion.

The interim government is considering measures to increase imports from the US to reduce the trade gap, Ali Imam said.

He also said the price of wheat would be set later on the government-to-government negotiation.

Bangladesh imports wheat mainly from Russia, Ukraine, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, but shipments from Ukraine have decreased since the war with Russia began in 2022.

Bangladesh Bank data showed that the country imported wheat worth about $635.8 million in FY24.

Food ministry officials said that the proposed amount of wheat was about 10 per cent of the country’s annual demand of 70 lakh tonnes with private sector importers such as City Group, Meghna Group, Bashundhara Group, Nabil Group, Sheikh Brothers, and Sainik Group leading the wheat import amid growing demand.

Aminul Islam, managing director of Nabil Group, said that the local private wheat importers were shy of the US wheat market because of high content of protein and relatively high price.

He calculated that fright charge would be additional maximum $3 to $4 per tonne for importing wheat by the government from the US than the other markets.

In the fortnight ending May 9, export prices of the US (Soft Red Winter), the US (Hard Red Winter), Russian, and Ukrainian wheat decreased by 2.9 per cent, 3.1 per cent, 1.6 per cent and 0.8 per cent to $213 a tonne, $240 a tonne, $246 a tonne, and $248 a tonne respectively.

The domestic wheat production has almost halved over the past two decades as farmers shifted to more profitable crops like maize, potatoes, vegetables and boro rice.

In the current financial year of 2025-26, the government has planned to import 15 lakh tonnes of rice and wheat from global markets at an estimated cost of Tk 7,800 crore. It had imported 10.05 lakh tonnes of rice and wheat worth Tk 5,800 crore in the past financial year.

Of the proposed import from the international sources, rice will account for 9 lakh tonnes and wheat 6 lakh tonnes.

In 2023, Bangladesh imported wheat worth $823 million. It imported wheat mainly from Canada ($428m), Ukraine ($171m), Romania ($105m), Brazil ($50.7m) and Australia ($45.1m), according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, an online data visualisation platform under the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Earlier on April 3, the US had imposed a steep 37 per cent ‘reciprocal’ tariff on Bangladeshi exports, but on April 9, the US president declared a pause on the tariff for three months.

After the pause announcement, Bangladesh had held the first round of negotiations with the US over the tariff rate.​
 

Trump's tariff war and its adverse impact

Forrest Cookson
Published :
Jul 21, 2025 23:54
Updated :
Jul 21, 2025 23:54

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Since Trump was inaugurated as president of the United States on January 20, 2025 he has implemented a series of actions which amount to a trade war against the rest of the world. On April 2, 2025 he announced so-called reciprocal tariffs with different levels for different countries. Right from the start he challenged the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) rule under which the tariff-setting country applied the same tariff level to every other country for each specific good. [Exceptions to this occur under FTAs.] Under Trump's approach the tariff level for the same commodity would depend upon the country of origin of the import. It undermined one of the most basic rules of international trade. Subsequently, Trump delayed the implementation of the reciprocal tariffs until July 9, 2025 to allow negotiations to take place between the United States (US) and other countries so as to adjust the initial value of the reciprocal tariff and other trade related items so an agreement might be reached with the US. Later the date was extended to August 1, 2025. In addition to this fundamental action Trump declared a minimum 10 per cent tariff on all imports into the US with a few exceptions. Different types of commodities had higher tariffs imposed; these included steel, aluminium, automobiles, automobiles spares, and more recently copper. Changes were made on the tariff rates from time to time on Canada and Mexico. Trump negotiated partial agreements with the UK, Vietnam, and another agreement with China scheduled to last 90 days. Details on all of these trade agreements were vague in nature

What was this all about? First Trump believes that the US is being badly treated as it runs a large trade deficit with the rest of the world, as well as deficits with almost every country. In Trump's view of economics the trade deficit is to the disadvantage of the US and he is determined to reduce the deficit to zero or even to achieve a surplus. One should remember that these decisions covered only trade in goods, omitting trade in services for which the US usually had a surplus.

How is it possible for the US to continuously run a trade deficit? Countries running a surplus with the US were content to accept dollars to cover the difference. In effect, the surplus country sent its goods to the US and accepted part of the payment in US government securities, cash, or deposits in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Countries were prepared to do this as they wanted to maintain reserves for emergencies. In such emergencies expenditures of dollars would be necessary to purchase commodities. In addition, individuals and companies may wish to hold their surplus funds in dollars rather than in local currency. During the past 80 years most of the foreign exchange transactions were made in dollars and a very large per cent of foreign trade was denominated in dollar prices. Both the US and other countries were content with the large trade deficit run by the US. In the international trading system, the US dollar became the standard unit of value in trade. Prior to 1972 the US dollar had been redeemable in gold so that a country holding US dollars could exchange these for gold. But in 1972 the US broke this link and everyone accepted the new situation that the dollar was an acceptable currency.

One of the consequences of the US trade deficit was that more of the production of goods that had been taking place in the US shifted to other countries. The goods the US required in excess of its exports had to come from somewhere, so other countries around the world constructed factories and sold goods replacing what had been previously been manufactured in the US. This resulted in considerable loss of jobs in the US and the destruction of many businesses. Large parts of the Midwest of the US, that had been the centre of manufacturing, were simply closed down and workers lost their jobs. This had a very serious effect on the American population which found itself unemployed or engaged in work that was less remunerative then before. This phenomenon Trump called the carnage of the US. In his inaugural address in 2017 his first term as president he describes the destruction of the American manufacturing sector, the loss of jobs and the destruction of communities that had been built around these factories. Much of his political support derives from persons who were adversely affected by the destruction of the American manufacturing sector. It is this line of thought that led him to believe that the destruction of the manufacturing sector must be reversed. To achieve this he is raising tariffs so that imported goods will be much more expensive and new factories can start up in the US to compete with the imports.

The greater the trade imbalance against the US, the higher the reciprocal tariff rates. This reciprocal tariff rate was meant to be an approximation of a tariff level that would reduce the US deficit to zero for that particular country. Of course in achieving this, rest of the world must abandon its wish to hold dollars. The world financial system was based upon the use of dollars combined with confidence that the legal system in the US would ensure that the holder of dollars would be able to change these into other currencies or to use them to purchase commodities. Furthermore countries which faced financial difficulties were often able to borrow dollars from the Federal Reserve to enable them to make the necessary economic adjustments to return to equilibrium. This system generally worked very well, even in the great financial crisis of 2008-9. The Federal Reserve was willing to extend the so-called swap lines to major central banks to ensure there was an adequate supply of dollars. If Mr. Trump were to be successful in closing the trade gap, there would be no flow of dollars to the rest of the world. Then the question of financial stability and trading currencies would be uncertain with a very negative effect on international trade. Furthermore, this reduction of exports from the rest of the world to the United States would reduce gross domestic product (GDP) and employment of nations other than the USA. World GDP would fall or grow more slowly. Employment demand in the US would rise but since already unemployment is low this would lead to higher wages and inflation in the USA. American GDP would decline as the efficiency of US manufacturing would be reduced.

Another objective of the Trump strategy is to weaken the trading relationships between China and other countries particularly in South and Southeast Asia. The Trump administration believes that it is in a protracted existential conflict with China with trade remaining an extremely important instrument. Weakening the Chinese economy is a clear objective of Trump's policies and one objective of his tariff strategy. This has important implications for Bangladesh and is taken up elsewhere.

One must realise that the Trump tariff war is dynamic and other countries or groups of countries will respond to the actions that Trump is taking. As other countries adjust tariffs and other trade conditions a new equilibrium for international trade will emerge. This equilibrium will be characterised by reduced world GDP as labour and capital will not be allocated in as optimal way as at present. Countries will introduce numerous rules and regulations that prevent labour and capital to be used in the best way instead national objectives will become more important and supporting enterprise through subsidy or other regulations will favour national companies reducing trade. How much will the world lose in output due to the misallocation that will arise from the trade wars now starting? It is impossible to make an accurate estimate of the extent of this loss but it should be of the order of 10 to 15 per cent.

For the US the Yale Budget Lab has made some estimates of the economic consequences of the tariffs. The estimates given here are as of the tariffs that had been announced up to July 11, 2025. Americans consumers will face an average effective tariff rate of about 18 per cent the highest rate since 1934. The price level in the US will increase by 1.9 per cent and in the average household income will fall $2500. Unemployment should increase about 0.4 per cent. Tariffs collected over a 10 year period would amount to $2.3 trillion. This compares to the expected tax reductions in the famous BBB Act of $3.9 trillion

The short run impact on the US price of wearing apparel would be an increase of 37.5 per cent. This would reduce the demand. In addition to this price effect the household income would fall particularly in lower levels (these households receive less food support and have to pay for more of their medical expenses). Altogether one expects a significant drop in demand for clothing in the United States as a result of these reciprocal tariffs.

The estimates of the impact of the Trump tariff changes daily as he adjusts or threatens to change tariff rates. The overall impact of the Trump tariff strategy will be to raise prices and lower household incomes in the US and also probably raise exports to other countries. The rest of the world will find its GDP lowered with the drop of sales to the US and probably prices also reduced. It is hard to know the ultimate outcome of the dynamic adjustments that will take place to all of these changes. But one can be certain that the allocation of labour and capital in all countries will reduce GDP. The effect on prices will ultimately depend on monetary policy. It should be noted that the stability of the world financial system will decline with the reduced supply of dollars while countries will be adjusting to how to maintain appropriate reserve levels in different currencies and the trading impact of the use of several currencies rather than the dollar.

The Trump tariff policy will have an adverse impact on virtually all countries especially the US.

Dr Forrest Cookson, economist.​
 

US tariff negotiation: Govt turns to the businessmen at the eleventh hour
Shuvonkar Karmokar Dhaka
Published: 21 Jul 2025, 12: 51

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US President Donald Trump holds a signed executive order on tariffs on aluminum imports in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on 10 FebruaryReuters

From the very beginning, the interim government did not involve the private sector, economists, or trade experts in the negotiations over reducing reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US.

As a result, exporters are not very confident about any progress regarding tariff reduction. They said that if the tariffs are not reduced, it is they who will ultimately suffer. Some US buyers have reportedly informed Bangladeshi exporters that the country is lagging far behind in the negotiations, which has created frustration among exporters over the government’s handling of the issue.

According to concerned businesspeople and exporters, after two and a half months of talks, it is now evident that competing countries are far ahead of Bangladesh. Yet, Bangladesh has only ten days left to negotiate a reduction in reciprocal tariffs. After failing to bring any positive results in two rounds of talks, the government is now approaching exporters, businesses, and the private sector.

It has been learned that the Ministry of Commerce is leading the negotiation with the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) on behalf of the Bangladesh government. After two meetings, the government has come to understand that USTR does not have the authority to reduce tariffs — only the Trump administration can do so.

Therefore, late last week, the government’s top level informally requested the private sector to do whatever is possible to convince the Trump administration, including hiring lobbyists. Business leaders had been urging the government to involve the private sector since April. They had even advised hiring lobbyists back then.

However, the government did not heed these suggestions. Instead, several top government officials had assured businesspeople that they could resolve the issue themselves and that there was no reason for concern.

Moreover, citing a non-disclosure agreement (NDA) signed with the US on 12 June, the government has not disclosed what was discussed, agreed upon, or disputed in the negotiations. Business leaders allege they were kept in the dark for a long time regarding the negotiations.

A top businessperson, requesting anonymity, said that last Saturday, Trade Adviser Sheikh Bashir Uddin advised the private sector to hire lobbyists and initiate talks with the Trump administration.

Despite two rounds of talks, no progress has been made in reducing the 35 per cent reciprocal tariff imposed on Bangladeshi products by the US In a letter dated 8 July, US President Donald Trump informed Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus that a new tariff rate would take effect from 1 August. If enforced, the average tariff on Bangladeshi exports to the US would rise to 50 per cent.

There are only ten days left before the new tariffs come into effect. A team led by Trade Adviser Sheikh Bashir Uddin is scheduled to visit the US for another round of talks. However, as of Sunday, the US had not provided any specific date for the discussion.

The United States is Bangladesh’s single largest export market. In the 2024–25 fiscal year, Bangladesh exported goods worth USD 8.69 billion to the US, accounting for just over 18 per cent of total national export earnings. Over 85 per cent of these exports were garment products, followed by caps, leather shoes, home textiles, wigs, and more.

At a roundtable organised by Prothom Alo yesterday, AK Azad, managing director of Ha-Meem Group, a leading garment exporter, said, “In my 40 years in the export business, I have never seen such a crisis. One of my major buyers told me that our negotiating position is weak. So, we cannot expect a favourable outcome.”

What the govt is doing

On 2 April, US President Donald Trump imposed reciprocal or reciprocal tariffs on imports from several countries. Tariffs were increased on products from 57 countries, with a 37 per cent additional tariff on Bangladeshi goods. On 9 April, Trump suspended these reciprocal tariffs for three months, although a minimum 10 per cent tariff remained in place on all countries.

Bangladesh delayed starting formal negotiations with the US over tariff reductions. The government also took time to consult relevant stakeholders such as trade researchers, exporters, and business leaders. Initially, the Ministry of Commerce was expected to lead the negotiations. However, individuals who could not take the discussions to a meaningful stage were instead involved early on.

The negotiations initially were led by chief adviser’s special envoy for international affairs, Lutfey Siddiqi, followed by National Security Adviser Khalilur Rahman. At a briefing on 5 April, Khalilur Rahman said, “This didn’t come out of the blue. We are prepared for it. We will take steps soon in consultation with the US administration.”

At the same briefing, Trade Adviser Sheikh Bashir Uddin said, “Given the structure of our industry and the maturity of our products, I think a door of great opportunity could open for Bangladesh.”

Following a meeting with USTR on 26 June, the national security adviser reported to the government that Bangladesh was ahead of other countries in the negotiations at that point.

From 9 to 11 July, another round of talks took place in Washington between Bangladesh and USTR. This time, the delegation was led by Trade Adviser Sheikh Bashir Uddin. After three days of discussions, the team returned without delivering any positive news. Citing the NDA, Bashir Uddin told the private sector that he could not disclose details of the talks.

Before the second round of talks with Bangladesh, the US on 8 July announced new tariff rates for 14 countries, including South Korea and Japan. Later, seven more countries were added to the list. After this, Bangladeshi exporters and business leaders attempted to meet with the chief adviser but failed.

Instead, they met with a four-member advisory committee. At that meeting, they informed the advisors that business leaders and experts had not been included in the tariff talks concerning this major export market, which had led to growing concerns among exporters.

Several business leaders noted that the US discussions are not limited to trade. The US wants to engage Bangladesh in broader geopolitical strategies, aiming to prevent it from leaning too far toward China. One of the conditions includes compliance with US sanctions imposed on other countries. Another stipulation reportedly requires that Bangladesh cannot offer the same tariff-free access to US goods that it might offer to other nations.

At Prothom Alo’s roundtable yesterday, Ananta Group Managing Director Sharif Zahir said, “We have failed diplomatically in the negotiations to reduce US reciprocal tariffs. However, we still have ten days. We should use every possible communication channel our head of government has with the US to make a final attempt.”

He added, “If the reciprocal tariffs are not reduced, our business will not survive more than six months. Over a million people will lose their jobs.”

No time to lose and hopes are fading

Meanwhile, after getting the green light from the government, the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) has started efforts to hire lobbyists. Last Saturday, BGMEA contacted two US firms — CGCN Group and Ballard Partners. One of the firms has already responded. BGMEA has also officially started involving the Policy Research Institute (PRI), a Bangladeshi think tank, in the negotiation process.

When contacted, BGMEA President Mahmud Hasan Khan told Prothom Alo yesterday, “Two days ago, we were informally asked by the top level of the government to hire lobbyists. So we started working. Last Saturday, we contacted two lobbying firms. But because this is a late move, finding a good lobbyist is proving difficult, as many are already working for other countries.”

Asked further, Mahmud Hasan Khan said, “We have only about ten days. It’s extremely difficult to hire lobbyists and achieve any positive outcome in such a short time. But we are trying nonetheless.”​
 

Bangladesh seeks 3rd-round tariff talks with US
Saddam Hossain 21 July, 2025, 21:19

With just days left before a 35 per cent reciprocal tariff by the United States on Bangladeshi exports takes effect, Bangladesh is pushing for a third round of negotiations.

According to the ministry of commerce, a formal proposal has been sent via email to the US counterpart on Monday at 7:30pm Bangladesh time, requesting a time slot for the next phase of dialogue.

Speaking to New Age, Mahbubur Rahman, secretary of the commerce ministry, said that when the US confirmed the slot, they were ready to sit for the third round of discussions.New age services

The second round of discussions, ended on July 11, failed to produce a consensus from either side regarding the tariff policy.

With the deadline fast approaching, Bangladesh is taking urgent steps to reopen talks in hopes of averting the potentially damaging duty hike.

‘We have submitted our position already and also finalised further proposals through inter-ministerial discussions on Sunday. After sending the proposals officially, we would wait for the US response,’ he added.

Regarding private sector involvement, he said that they had already encouraged them to engage in B2B-level discussions in parallel.

On Sunday, Bangladesh signed a memorandum of understanding with the US to import 7 lakh tonnes of wheat annually for the next five years, aiming to reduce trade gap amid the threat of facing a 35 per cent US tariff.

Mahbubur Rahman said that they urged businesses to discuss with wheat, cotton, soy, and other product-based associations in the US to increase imports.

‘We import those products from many countries and we urged the businesses to increase import from the US,’ he added.

Regarding the appointment of lobbyists, he stated that reciprocal tariffs were a global issue and that such matters could be resolved through negotiations and agreements, rather than through lobbying.

‘We urged our businesses to conduct B2B level discussion with the US counterpart while we would conduct G2G level discussion,’ he said, adding that such discussion would surely bring some results.

Business leaders expressed their frustrations over the past few weeks regarding the government’s sluggish pace in addressing the impending US tariff.

Despite competing nations successfully negotiating reductions, they underscored the glaring weaknesses in Bangladesh’s preparation.

Speaking to New Age, Mahmud Hasan Khan Babu, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, stated that the businesses were operating as usual.New age services

Regarding appointing lobbyists, he said that upon the unofficial approval from the government-end, they were trying to hire lobbyists to discuss with the Trump administration.

‘We discussed with several firms; however, it would be extremely tough to get an efficient firm as we have about 9 days in hands,’ he added.

However, they discussed this with the farms, hoping that if the Trump administration would extend the timeframe.

Trump administration slapped Bangladesh with a 35 per cent tariff on July 8, in a letter to the chief adviser.

Currently, Bangladeshi exporters enjoy a tariff of about 15 per cent in shipping their products to the US, the single largest export destination for Bangladesh.

With the imposition of the 35 per cent tariff, the total tariff would be 50 per cent, effective from August 1.

In 2024, Bangladesh exported approximately $8.4 billion in goods to the US, of which $7.34 billion, or about 88 per cent, accounted for readymade garments.

In 2024, US goods exports to Bangladesh were worth $2.2 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $6.2 billion for the US.

According to the BGMEA data, 1,322 RMG operational factories under the trade body are associated with US exports.

On Sunday, AmCham president Syed Ershad Ahmed said that constructive dialogue on counter-tariffs could yield positive outcomes.

‘This is not unique to us, many countries face similar issues. As our capacity grows, our bargaining power in these discussions will also increase,’ he added.

He also said that his organisation had discussed importing cotton from the US and customs reforms with relevant stakeholders, including the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority.

Businesses expressed frustration with signing a non-disclosure agreement regarding the tariff, which the government used to exclude them from the discussion.

Meanwhile, a number of business leaders revealed that discussions with the US were not limited to trade alone; the US was also keen to engage with Bangladesh on geopolitical and strategic matters, with a primary objective of ensuring that Bangladesh would not lean too heavily toward China.

Moreover, new conditions were reportedly being set during these talks, such that if the US imposes sanctions on any country, Bangladesh would be required to comply with those sanctions as well.​
 

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