[🇧🇩] Insurgencies in Myanmar. Implications for Bangladesh

[Saif]

রাখাইন রাজ্যের মংডু টাউনশিপ থেকে আসা মুহুর্মুহু বিস্ফোরণের শব্দে কেঁপে উঠছে কক্সবাজার |

 

[Saif]

Myanmar civil war: Bangladesh must be firm about territorial integrity

M Humayun Kabir talks about the implications of the ongoing conflict in Myanmar’s Rakhine state

www.thedailystar.net

Myanmar civil war: Bangladesh must be firm about territorial integrity

VISUAL: STAR

M Humayun Kabir, president of Bangladesh Enterprise Institute (BEI) and a former ambassador, talks to Tamanna Khan of The Daily Star about the implication of the ongoing conflict in Myanmar's Rakhine state between the country's military and the Arakan Army.

Myanmar's internal conflict has been affecting our southeastern border, especially St Martin's Island. How do you analyse this situation?

It is a very complex and difficult situation because we have a problem with the Rohingya population that have taken shelter in Bangladesh. We have been bearing their responsibility for the last seven years. On top of that, a new problem has cropped up: the internal conflict in Myanmar that has now come to our border. In recent times, some bullets and shells from across the Myanmar border landed on Bangladesh. In the last two or three weeks, we have been having some difficulty also in the southeastern border areas, particularly around Cox's Bazar. We have seen St Martin's Island coming under fire from the Myanmar side as well.

We have taken a somewhat benign approach to this issue because we consider whatever is happening in Rakhine to be an internal matter of Myanmar. That's why we have refrained from taking any initiative other than the diplomatic one. We have lodged protests through the diplomatic channel against cross-border firing and also protested whenever there has been a report on border violations. We have also tried to maintain calm and arranged return of groups that entered Bangladesh. In the process, we sent a clear signal to the Myanmar side and to the international community that Bangladesh considers the ongoing conflict as an internal affair of Myanmar, and we have no intention and no interest to get involved in this process. Our key interest is to facilitate the quick return of the Rohingya population that have taken shelter in Bangladesh back to Myanmar as soon as possible. That remains our priority.

To be continued...................​

 

[Saif]

What implications does this conflict have for Bangladesh?

It looks like the military conflict is intensifying and there is a growing prospect of the Arakan Army dominating the Rakhine landscape and taking control of the region from the Myanmar military. If that happens, it will create a situation that we have never faced before. For example, we want to maintain our relationship with Myanmar as a neighbouring country. If the Rakhine state, which is the connecting point between Myanmar and Bangladesh, goes under the Arakan Army's control, the question then will be: what kind of relationship should we maintain with the Myanmar government? Under that hypothetical scenario, what will happen to the repatriation possibility of the Rohingya? The Bangladesh government does not recognise the Arakan Army as a political entity. If they physically control Rakhine, what kind of relationship will we have with them? So, this internal armed conflict in Myanmar is opening up a scenario which is a potential diplomatic challenge for Bangladesh. Additionally, it will further complicate the Rohingya repatriation issue.

As for the firing on Bangladeshi boats from the Myanmar side, it makes our population living near the Myanmar border vulnerable. This also hampers communication between the mainland and St Martin's Island. In the last two to three weeks, there has been no regular traffic between the mainland and the island. Of late, we have heard remarks from different quarters about St Martin's. If the island comes under any kind of threat from the Myanmar side, it will raise questions about our territorial integrity. For Bangladesh, it means we are facing a three-dimensional threat: diplomatic, military, and strategic. That's why it is extremely important now for Bangladesh to not only diplomatically engage with Myanmar and let them know that we are not involved in their internal affairs, but also take appropriate action to defend our territorial integrity, should the situation aggravate further along the border.

Is there anything else that we should do?

I think that some kind of demonstration of our determination is also required. If needed, we can go back to our old playbook that could guide us to tackle any kind of challenge around St Martin's Island. I think since the issue is affecting our national security, we should be firm and then demonstrate that firmness to Myanmar. At the same time, we should convey that message to the Arakan Army too. At this point, I don't believe that they are intentionally violating our territorial integrity or shooting at St Martin's. Even in that kind of situation, it is important for us to convey a message to them that this is not acceptable. And if this continues, Bangladesh will have to protect its territorial integrity.

To be continued.................​

 

[Saif]

Previously, you talked about Bangladesh facilitating a ceasefire. Is that still an option?

At that time, that could have been a possible move. But the situation has taken a different turn now. So, I do not believe that we are at that stage to talk about a ceasefire. Now, it looks like the conflict may take two shapes. Under the first scenario, the conflict in Rakhine may intensify with the Myanmar military deploying their land and air assets to overpower the Arakan Army, which seems remote. The second scenario could be that the Arakan Army takes full military control of the Rakhine state and then possibly negotiates a ceasefire. Whichever situation arises, new options have to be explored.

Do you think more Rohingya refugees might try to enter Bangladesh as the conflict escalates?

Well, there have been reports in the international media and humanitarian organisations in recent weeks that the Rohingya are being used or abused by both sides. There are reports that the Myanmar government is using the Rohingya. Some reports mentioned that some of the Rohingya are working for the Arakan Army as well. As a result, the Rohingya population is facing great difficulty within Myanmar and particularly in Rakhine now. There are reports that in the Buthidaung town, the Arakan Army burned thousands of houses of the Rohingya, but they issued statements denying their role in the arson and accusing the other side. The Rohingya are caught in the crossfire. There are about 600,000 Rohingya still living in Rakhine. If they are in difficulty, there is a possibility of them trying to cross over to Bangladesh, despite Bangladesh clearly stating that no more Rohingya will be accepted. So, multiple challenges are brewing up on the Myanmar front: diplomatic, humanitarian, military, and strategic. As a way forward, it is extremely important that we discuss this issue with our friends in India, China, Japan and Thailand—those who can somehow influence Myanmar and other groups, including the Arakan Army. One could also think of raising this issue with the United Nations. On our part, we should also take appropriate steps to protect our territorial integrity and safety of our own people, continue our work to ensure earliest possible repatriation of the Rohingya population back to Myanmar, and reach out to all actors to achieve our objectives.​

 

[Saif]

First Myanmar junta conscripts to begin duty at end of month

A first batch of 5,000 conscripts called up by Myanmar’s junta will begin duty at the end of this month, military sources said on Monday, as the generals struggle to crush opposition to their coup...

www.newagebd.net

First Myanmar junta conscripts to begin duty at end of month
Agence France-Presse . Yangon 24 June, 2024, 23:52

A military parade in Naypyitaw, Myanmar. | AFP file photo

A first batch of 5,000 conscripts called up by Myanmar's junta will begin duty at the end of this month, military sources said on Monday, as the generals struggle to crush opposition to their coup.

The junta enforced a conscription law in February, three years after it seized power and sparked a widespread armed uprising that has spread across swathes of the Southeast Asian country.

The law allows the military to summon all men aged 18-35 and women aged 18-27 to serve in the armed forces for at least two years.

'The first batch of recruits, who started in early April, will conclude training at the end of this month,' one military source said.

The source said that upon graduation the 5,000 conscripts would be posted to 'different military commands around the country to serve their duty', without giving details on how they would serve.

He requested anonymity as he was not authorised to talk to the media.

Another military source who also requested anonymity said individual military commands would decide how to employ the recruits they received.

'It will be up to the commands they arrive at after their training,' he said.

Myanmar has 14 regional military commands across the country, from the Himalayan foothills in the north to the sprawling Ayeyarwady delta region bordering the Indian Ocean.

At least 10 of them are currently engaged in fighting established ethnic minority armed groups or newer 'People's Defence Forces' that have sprung up to resist the junta.

The military service law was authored by a previous junta in 2010 but was never brought into force.

The terms of service can be extended up to five years during a state of emergency — which the junta declared when it seized power.

Those ignoring a summons to serve can be jailed for the same period.

Thousands of young men and women have been trying to leave the country since the law was enforced.

Conscripts from the third batch of 5,000 recruits have already begun arriving at training centres, the first source said.

A junta spokesman previously said the military has the capacity to train 50,000 a year although about 13 million people will be eligible to be called up.

Last month, state media quoted the junta's defence minister as saying the military had faced 'challenges' in filling quotas.

Local media have reported cases of young men being pulled off the streets in Yangon and other cities and taken away to undergo military training.

The junta has denied the reports.

Myanmar has been in turmoil since the military coup in February 2021 toppled the government of Aung San Suu Kyi.

Since then, more than 5,200 people have been killed in the military crackdown on dissent, and more than 26,000 others arrested, according to a local monitoring group.​

 

[Saif]

PM seeks Chinese support to resolve Rohingya crisis

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on Monday sought Chinese support to solve the Rohingya crisis quickly. “Bangladesh is now very much worried about Rohingya crisis due to uncertainty of solution as it has already been six years of influx of the forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals to Bangladesh,&

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

PM seeks Chinese support to resolve Rohingya crisis
Published :
Jun 24, 2024 21:44
Updated :
Jun 24, 2024 21:44

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on Monday sought Chinese support to solve the Rohingya crisis quickly.
"Bangladesh is now very much worried about Rohingya crisis due to uncertainty of solution as it has already been six years of influx of the forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals to Bangladesh," she said.

The Premier sought this support as Liu Jianchao, Minister of International Department of the Communist Party of China, called on her at her Jatiyo Sangsad Bhaban Office.

While briefing reporters after the call on, Prime Minister's Press Secretary Md Nayeemul Islam Khan quoted Sheikh Hasina as saying, "It (Rohingya crisis) is very much frustrating and worrying for us."

He said that the premier told the Chinese minister that "It's a special message (from myself) to convey to the Chinese President (for a amicable solution of Rohingya crisis)."

She also requested the minister to do something with own and extra interest for it, he added.​

 

[Saif]

Ethnic armed groups battle junta in west, north

Myanmar ethnic armed groups seized a popular beach resort town in the west of the country and launched dawn attacks on junta positions in the north, a military source and residents told AFP yesterday.

www.thedailystar.net

Ethnic armed groups battle junta in west, north

Myanmar ethnic armed groups seized a popular beach resort town in the west of the country and launched dawn attacks on junta positions in the north, a military source and residents told AFP yesterday.

Fighting is raging across swathes of the Southeast Asian nation as ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy "People's Defence Forces" battle the military, which seized power in a 2021 coup.

In western Rakhine state, Arakan Army (AA) fighters have battled security forces for days around Ngapali beach, home to upmarket hotels and resorts owned by military-backed businesses.

Junta troops and police had retreated to an airport in the town of Thandwe, around two kilometres (more than a mile) away, a military source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP.

Hundreds of kilometres away in northern Shan state, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) launched dawn attacks on the military in the town of Kyaukme, the group and residents said.

One resident of the town, which sits on a vital highway to China, said they had heard artillery and gunfire around the town since the morning.

"Most people from the town are hiding inside their houses," another Kyaukme resident who works for a volunteer rescue team told AFP.

The TNLA had restricted travel around Kyaukme, they said, requesting anonymity for security reasons.

The AA and TNLA are members of the so-called "Three Brotherhood Alliance" that launched a surprise offensive against the junta last October across northern Shan state.

Their fighters seized swathes of territory and several lucrative trade crossings with China, dealing the junta its biggest blow since it seized power.

In January, China brokered a ceasefire that allowed the alliance to hold on to territory it had captured, but both sides have recently accused each other of breaking the truce.

The town of Thandwe, a few kilometres from Rakhine's Ngapali beach and home to the local airport, was largely deserted as of Monday, a resident who fled that day told AFP. "Almost everyone in the town has fled... Very few people are now in Thandwe," said the resident, who requested anonymity for security reasons.​

 

[Saif]

Civil war in Myanmar: Bangladesh should revisit its national security strategy

It is high time Bangladesh revised its national security strategy and worked in close collaboration with the other key regional players.

www.thedailystar.net

Civil war in Myanmar: Bangladesh should revisit its national security strategy

The Myanmar civil war is the result of decades of non-democratic rule by authoritative, military regimes. PHOTO: REUTERS

As fighting between the military junta and ethnic groups rages on in war-torn Myanmar, its neighbours Bangladesh, India, China and Thailand are finding it difficult to keep violence off their own borders.

Bangladesh, for instance, is facing major national security challenges at multiple layers as a result of the uncontained and reckless fighting between the Myanmar military and the armed rebel groups.

Intense gun battle along the Naf River, earlier this month, cut off Bangladesh's communications with its only coral island, St Martin's, located about nine kilometres off the mainland, for about a week. As a result, the island, with a population of about 11,000, was exposed to security risk and essential supplies crisis. Around the same time, heavy explosions along the Naf also caused panic among the residents of Shah Porir Dwip, another island situated at the southernmost point of Bangladesh. It was also reported that a Myanmar warship had been spotted opposite the island.

Indeed, these fears and security concerns are not unfounded. Since 2022, Myanmar has continuously violated Bangladesh's territorial integrity, with the former violating the latter's air space as early as in September 2022, with two shells falling inside the Bangladesh territory, and multiple rounds being fired from fighter aircraft.

As fighting between the factions and Myanmar military escalated, multiple killings and injuries were reported inside Bangladesh's territory. In February this year, two were killed by a mortar shell fired by Myanmar on Bandarban's Gumdhum border, with a child being injured. As recently as April this year, two Bangladeshi fishermen in Teknaf were injured when Myanmar's Border Guard Police (BGP) opened fire.

The misadventures, if not provocative posturing, by both the Myanmar military and the armed rebel groups around the Bangladesh borders, including in the Bay of Bengal, pose major threat to Bangladesh's national security. The Bangladesh government must be commended for the restraint it has exercised in addressing the situation so far, but it seems that this patience is being misinterpreted by all the factions in Myanmar. While Bangladesh keeps trying to address the situation through meaningful dialogues in a constructive approach, the Myanmar factions have been pushing the nation further to the brink: Bangladesh has now threatened counterfire if Myanmar resumes violent activities along the restive border areas.

However, the security concerns for Bangladesh does not end here. It has been reported by multiple media sources that armed gangs operating inside Rohingya camps inside Bangladesh—Rohingya Salvation Organization (RSO), Arakan Rohingya Army (ARA), and Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)—are actively and forcefully recruiting Rohingya men and boys (as young as 12) to fight in the civil war. In cases where the refugees are understandably unwilling to join, they are being kidnapped by the gangs. It has even been suggested that the recent arson incidents in the Kutupalong camp have been orchestrated by these gangs to coerce the refugees into joining the civil war. A recent turf war between ARSA and RSO has resulted in the death of three refugees.

What is even more alarming is that many of the refugees who have been forced away from the camps are currently being held inside the Bangladesh territory in the depths of the Bandarban hills, waiting to be pushed into Arakan. Many of the refugees, fearing illegal conscription by the various factions, including the Tatmadaw proxies, are voluntarily fleeing the camps and randomly spreading out across the greater Bandarban region, where it has been alleged that they are trying to assimilate with the locals.

If this is indeed the case, then the local authorities should beef up surveillance to avert internal security risks, given that the refugees are vulnerable to being manipulated by various quarters to serve their vested interests, and there is a high risk that the ones who are fleeing the camps could also potentially be exploited by groups with nefarious intentions.

In addition, Bangladesh has witnessed a new influx of refugees in recent months, as anticipated earlier, in the face of growing violence in the Rakhine state. A Bangladeshi official involved in refugee relief and repatriation told the media that many of the new refugees have been allowed to enter into Bangladesh territory unofficially. While Bangladesh has been generous in opening its doors to the Rohingya refugees, allowing them to do so unofficially or without tracking and accountability is a crisis in the making.

It is a no-brainer that in a desperate situation such as this, it would be difficult to keep the refugees from crossing over into Bangladesh. Under the current circumstances, without beefing up border security—and if required, ensuring a safe, official passage of the recently displaced Rohingya—infiltration would continue, resulting in the creation of small, sporadic pockets of illegal refugee settlement across the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT). The people in these pockets, desperate and vulnerable to the lures of various vested groups, can pose national security threats in the medium to long terms.

Bangladesh needs to revisit its national security strategy and adapt it to effectively navigate the shifting landscape. We need a multipronged approach to mitigate the emerging security threats.

First, we must acknowledge that our border security needs immediate attention and should do a thorough risk analysis with the support of defence experts and analysts, and come up with a comprehensive plan to counter these challenges.

Second, instead of hoping that the Rohingya refugees would not cross into Bangladesh, we should take stock of the situation and if required allow them official safe passage with strict monitoring of their whereabouts. This would be better than the refugees illegally infiltrating and then spreading across the greater CHT region, without any sight of their movement.

Third, the government should work in close collaboration with key regional players including India and China, since both have leverage with the Myanmar military and the armed factions in some cases, especially China—earlier this year, China brokered a ceasefire between the Myanmar junta and the armed groups—to convince all the parties to come to a negotiating table and discuss and ink a sustainable permanent ceasefire.

Fourth, Bangladesh should continue using diplomatic channels to convince the international community to increase funding for the desperate Rohingya refugees, whose living conditions have declined over the years with aid dwindling fast.

Finally, the Bangladesh government should negotiate a practical and sustainable repatriation deal for the refugees with the Myanmar authorities with the mediation of China. Once peace is restored in Myanmar, China can play a pivotal role by leveraging their influence to offer the refugees a dignified life in their own homeland with full citizenship, rights and security.

The Myanmar civil war is the result of decades of non-democratic rule by authoritative, military regimes, resulting in the persecution of minority groups, which has inflicted deep wounds within the communities. Its solution lies in the return of democracy and acceptance of all its people. The wounds are deep, but in a true democratic system, with rights and dignity restored to all the ethnic groups and communities, and everyone given their due representation and voice, Myanmar can heal, and prosper even, realising the full potential of the diversity the country is gifted with.

In light of the ongoing situation, it is high time Bangladesh revised its national security strategy and worked in close collaboration with the other key regional players to help Myanmar find peace.

Tasneem Tayeb is a columnist for The Daily Star.​