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[🇧🇩] Insurgencies in Myanmar. Implications for Bangladesh

G Bangladesh Defense
[🇧🇩] Insurgencies in Myanmar. Implications for Bangladesh
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From Rohingya camp to NY University
Abdur Razzak Sarker
Dhaka
Updated: 05 Nov 2024, 22: 14

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Maung Sawyeddollah in the USCourtesy

Maung Sawyeddollah from a Rohingya camp in Cox’s Bazar has received a scholarship to New York University. Sawyeddollah, who was determined to pursue higher studies, did not have a smooth journey.

He became stateless and passport-less after fleeing to Bangladesh to escape from the genocide of Myanmar Army. So the universities did not want to enroll him initially. At one point, his dream of higher studies was almost over.

More 1.1 million Rohingya resorted to Bangladesh, fleeing from the genocide by the Myanmar Army in 2017. Sawyeddollah and his family were among them. He has had deep interest in studies since his childhood. But he could not pursue higher studies as the Myanmar government imposed an embargo on higher studies for the Rohingya community. After coming to Bangladesh, he learnt that there was no legal provision to enroll Rohingya students for higher studies at any of the universities in Bangladesh.

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Maung Sawyeddollah in front of New York University Courtesy

At one point he started writing to Bangladeshi educational institutions, humanitarian organisations and other authorities concerned in the country to ensure the right to higher studies for Rohingya students. He started running campaigns and writing articles seeking opportunities of higher studies for Rohingyas.

Speaking to Prothom Alo, Maung Sawyeddollah said, “After becoming a refugee, I came to realise that it was tough for me to get higher studies. At first, I applied to different universities for higher studies. At first, I applied for an opportunity to the Cox’s Bazar International University, the nearest one from my camp.

“I also submitted applications to different international organisations for my higher studies. But I didn’t get the expected response from anybody in the beginning. My main goal was to continue my studies. I didn’t have any such desire to get higher studies in the US, but I wanted to study at a good university,” he added.

Sawyeddollah didn’t lose hope even after getting rejected by everyone. He said, “I applied to more than 100 universities. That doesn’t mean I randomly applied to every university. I applied to universities only after getting rejected from another one. For instance, I applied to Oxford University at first. But I was rejected as I didn’t meet their requirements. However, some of the universities that I had applied to offer me scholarships. I appealed to universities in various countries, including the USA, the UK, Canada, Australia, Malaysia and Ireland. My main target was to ensure an opportunity to pursue higher studies.”

The US embassy in Dhaka posted on Facebook congratulating Maung Sawyeddollah on his success.

The post reads, “Applauding the first Rohingya student at New York University — congrats, Maung Sawyeddollah! From the hardships of genocide to admission at the NYU after applying to 147 universities, your unwavering commitment is a testament to resilience and determination. May your story inspire others and pave the way for dignity and justice for the Rohingya people.”

Expressing gratitude to the people who stood beside him, Maung Sawyeddollah said, “I am grateful to everyone who helped me get higher studies. I also want to thank the government of Bangladesh as it was not possible for me to come to the USA for higher studies without getting the clearance from Bangladesh. Besides, I am also grateful to the US Embassy in Dhaka for granting me a VISA without passport considering my situation.”

*This report appeared on the print an online versions of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten in English by Ashish Basu​
 

Myanmar junta chief discusses civil war with China
Agence France-Presse . Yangon 08 November, 2024, 01:36

Myanmar’s junta chief has held talks with prime minister Li Qiang of key ally China on the civil war roiling his country, state media said on Thursday, during his first visit to the country since seizing power in a 2021 coup.

Min Aung Hlaing told Li at a meeting in the southwestern city of Kunming that the military was ready for peace if armed groups would engage, according to an account of the meeting in the Global New Light of Myanmar.

Myanmar has been racked by conflict between the military and various armed groups opposed to its rule since the army ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government in February 2021.

The junta is reeling from a major rebel offensive last year that seized a large area of territory, much of it near the border with China.

‘The door of peace is always open if they genuinely want peace,’ Min Aung Hlaing told Li, according to the GNLM report.

‘The armed insurgents should do what needs to be done instead of giving priority to their needs and wishes.’

China has been a major arms supplier to the junta and provided Myanmar with political backing even as other countries shun the generals over their brutal crackdown on dissent.

But Beijing is concerned about the chaos unfolding on its doorstep, in particular the growth of online scam compounds in Myanmar, run by and targeting Chinese citizens.

In its report of the Kunming meeting, on the side-lines of a regional summit, China’s state news agency Xinhua said Li had stressed the need to ensure the safety of Chinese citizens and projects in Myanmar.

Last month, a blast targeted the Chinese consulate in Mandalay. There were no casualties but Beijing issued a furious rebuke.

Li did not explicitly back the junta’s approach to the civil war, according to the Xinhua report.

Instead, he told Min Aung Hlaing that China supported Myanmar in ‘advancing the political reconciliation and transformation’.

Beijing is concerned about the possibility the junta could fall, analysts say, and is suspicious about Western influence among some of the pro-democracy armed groups battling the military.

Myanmar is a vital part of Beijing’s trillion-dollar Belt and Road initiative, with railways and pipelines to link China’s landlocked southwest to the Indian Ocean.​
 

Arakan Army returns 20 Bangladeshi fishermen taken from Naf River
FE Online Desk
Published :
Nov 07, 2024 20:47
Updated :
Nov 07, 2024 20:47

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Myanmar’s Arakan Army has returned 20 Bangladeshi fishermen who were taken captive from the Shah Porir Dwip in the Naf River on Tuesday.

The fishermen were handed over to the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) at Teknaf’s Shah Porir Dwip jetty on Thursday afternoon. Lt Col Md Mohiuddin Ahmed, commander of Teknaf-2 BGB, confirmed the matter, reports UNB.

The process of returning the fishermen to their families has been completed, said the BGB official.

Armed members of the separatist rebel group Arakan Army held the fishermen at gunpoint and seized 15 dinghy boats, taking them away into Myanmar territory.

The capture created an atmosphere of fear and concern among local fishing communities and the families of those taken.

Efforts to secure their release began immediately, with the BGB engaging in discussions with the Arakan Army to ensure the safe return of the fishermen.​
 

Famine looming in Rakhine state: UN
Agence France-Presse . United Nations 09 November, 2024, 00:40

Myanmar’s conflict-torn Rakhine state is heading toward famine, the United Nations warned on Thursday, as the country’s civil war squeezes commerce and agricultural production.

‘Rakhine’s economy has stopped functioning,’ a new report from the UN Development Programme said, projecting ‘famine conditions by mid-2025’ if current levels of food insecurity are left unaddressed.

Some two million people are at risk of starvation, it said. Amid the fighting roiling the country, international and domestic trade routes leading into the already impoverished state have been closed, leaving the entrance of aid and goods severely restricted.

In addition to intense fighting, people in Rakhine are facing ‘absence of incomes, hyperinflation and significantly reduced domestic food production,’ the UNDP report warned.

Myanmar has been racked by conflict between the military and various armed groups opposed to its rule since the ruling junta ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government in February 2021.

Clashes have rocked western Rakhine since the Arakan Army attacked security forces in November 2023, ending a ceasefire that had largely held since the junta’s 2021 coup.

With the farming economy in crisis, the UNDP predicted local food production would only cover 20 per cent of the state’s needs by March or April.

Internal rice production is ‘plummeting,’ it said, due to ‘a lack of seeds, fertilisers and severe weather conditions.’

Some 97,000 tons of rice are set to be cultivated in Rakhine this year, compared to 2,82,000 tons last year, according to the UNDP.

A ‘steep rise’ in internally displaced people, meanwhile, means many fields are unable to be worked.

According to UN figures, Rakhine state recorded more than 5,00,000 displaced people in August, compared to just under 2,00,000 in October 2023.

Facing particular risk are populations including members of the long-persecuted Rohingya Muslim minority and displaced people.​
 

WFP highlights importance of collecting biometric data for newly arrived Rohingyas
UNB
Published :
Nov 13, 2024 22:49
Updated :
Nov 13, 2024 22:49

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Representative of the World Food Programme (WFP) Domenico Scalpelli has highlighted the importance of collecting biometric data for newly arrived Rohingyas, saying it would help improve the food distribution system.

He noted the challenges posed by the dwindling funding scenario that impacted food rations in the past and can threaten future support levels, reports UNB.

Scalpelli met Foreign Secretary Md Jashim Uddin at his office on Tuesday and expressed appreciation for Bangladesh’s ongoing support to the Rohingya people and thanked the Government for facilitating WFP’s operations in Cox’s Bazar and Bashan Char.

Humanitarian response to the Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMNs), impacts on the host communities, food security, micro-nutrient issues, disaster responses and the need assessment of the disaster victims at the national context, midday school meal projects featured in the discussions, said the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Wednesday.

The Foreign Secretary commended WFP’s well-coordinated efforts in the camps, assuring continued Government support for WFP’s humanitarian and disaster response initiatives.

Drawing from his recent visit to Rohingya camps, he stressed the significant negative impacts on Bangladesh’s local communities and reiterated the importance of focusing on repatriating Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMNs) to their homeland.​
 

Rohingya crisis being prolonged by geopolitics
Says foreign adviser

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Photo: Collected

Foreign Affairs Adviser Touhid Hossain said yesterday that while the Bay of Bengal holds significant importance for Bangladesh, it also attracts the attention of global powers like India, the US, and China, each of whom has their own strategic interests in the region.

Touhid made the remark while speaking at the opening ceremony of the Bay of Bengal Conversation, 2024, an international geopolitical conference organised by the Centre for Governance Studies, an independent think tank, at a city hotel.

Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus inaugurated the 3rd edition of the three-day annual conference with the theme "A Fractured World", which is being held at the Pan Pacific Sonargaon Dhaka.

Touhid said Bangladesh has been caught in the crosshairs of competing geopolitical interests.

"I'm not blaming anyone; everyone looks after their own interests. But this has prolonged the Rohingya issue, and there is no light at the end of the tunnel."

Touhid said Bangladesh has not received the expected level of support from its major neighbouring countries regarding resolving the Rohingya crisis.

"During the last eight years, the amount of or the level of support that we expected from our neighbours has not been forthcoming."

Touhid said, "The question may arise: Why has China not been forthcoming in resolving the issue on the side of Bangladesh? Because Myanmar remains very important for China's access to the Bay of Bengal. Similarly, India thinks that the Kaladan project is important, and for this project, it has to keep good relations with Myanmar."

The Kaladan Road Project connects Kolkata in eastern India with the Sittwe seaport in Rakhine State, Myanmar, via sea.

"I don't see that this is going to be resolved very quickly and very easily. But one thing I just want to mention here is that unless this issue is resolved, it is going to become an issue for the rest of the world," he said.

Highlighting the growing concerns over the future of the Rohingya youth, the adviser said, "Young generations who have no hopes for the future are not likely to sit idle and watch what others do. There will be a point in time they will become a serious problem not only for Bangladesh but also for our neighbours and people from far away."

Since the 2017 military crackdown in Myanmar, widely condemned as ethnic cleansing by the UN, approximately 1.2 million Rohingya refugees have taken shelter in Bangladesh's Cox's Bazar camps.​
 

56 indigenous people enter Bangladesh fleeing Myanmar war
FE ONLINE DESK
Published :
Nov 19, 2024 00:40
Updated :
Nov 19, 2024 00:40

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As many as 56 indigenous people have entered the Bangladesh territory through the Naikhongchhari upazila border in the Bandarban district after escaping from Myanmar amid war and violence.

The batch containing 56 people from the Chakma and Tanchangya communities walked in via the Baishfari border in the Ghumdhum union of the Upazila.

They have been taken to the Kutupalong Hindu Rohingya Camp instantly, said Zarin Tasnim, the acting upazila executive officer and assistant commissioner (Land) of Ukhiya Upazila.

The issue has been reported to higher authorities. The government's stance on the issue will be informed later, Zarin added.

The trespassers are saying the area has become uninhabitable due to war and violence in the Rakhine State. To survive, they have fled into Bangladesh. They used to earn their livelihood through farming and jhum cultivation in their homeland.

The police officers as well as the BGB personnel are providing security for the Myanmar nationals who have gathered together.

The Upazila administration and the BGB are discussing to make a decision on them, Ukhiya Police Station chief Mohammad Arif Hossain said.

Information on the infiltration has been received. Efforts are underway to get more details. The exact number of infiltrators will be informed later, according to Lt Col Abdullah Al Mashruki, a commander of the 34th battalion of BGB.

A conflict has been raging for long between the Arakan Army insurgent group and the Myanmar army in the Rakhine State.

Most of the areas of the Rakhine State areas are now under the control of the Arakan Army. The Rohingya

made several attempts recently to enter Bangladesh from Myanmar but the BGB and the law enforcers have sent them back to their country.​
 

Nat’l consensus needed to tackle Rohingya issue
Says foreign adviser

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Touhid Hossain

Bangladesh needs to develop a national consensus on solving the Rohingya crisis that has become more complicated by the civil war in Myanmar, particularly in Rakhine State, said Foreign Affairs Adviser Touhid Hossain.

"We gained much less than what we could have as there was no national consensus on the Rohingya policy," he said, urging the political parties to build the national consensus.

Touhid was addressing a national dialogue on Rohingya policy, organised by the South Asian Institute of Policy and Governance (SIPG) of North South University at the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS) yesterday.

Bangladesh hosts more than one million Rohingya. Since July, more than 50,000 more Myanmar people, including the Rohingya and other ethnic groups, took shelter in Bangladesh amid fierce fighting between the Myanmar junta and rebel group Arakan Army (AA).

The AA now controls a large part of the Rakhine State, from where over 7.5 lakh Rohingya fled to Bangladesh amid a military crackdown in 2017.

Despite repeated attempts bilaterally with Myanmar and trilaterally involving China, no Rohingya repatriation has taken place since the largest influx in 2017.

Touhid said Bangladesh needs minimum deterrence not for war but to demonstrate strength and go for multilateral negotiation.

He said Bangladesh cannot engage any non-state actor of Myanmar. However, the fact that the AA controls 80 percent of Rakhine State, the Rohingya problem cannot be addressed without the support of the AA. In that case, Bangladesh also cannot ignore AA.

The adviser said he favours providing education to Rohingya children up to class X and imparting skills training before they are repatriated.

Dr Khalilur Rahman, the high representative of the chief adviser for Rohingya and priority affairs, said the Rohingya issue has almost lost the attention of the global community.

The current government is trying to bring the international community's attention back to the crisis through the UN Conference on Rohingya early next year.

BNP Standing Committee Member Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury agreed that Bangladesh needs to have a comprehensive Rohingya policy and national consensus on the matter.

He also stressed enhancing security along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border and boosting trade between the two countries.

Amir Khasru also advocated for improving relations between various ethnic communities, especially between the Rohingya and the Rakhine in Myanmar's Rakhine State.

Jamaat-e-Islami leader AHM Mamidur Rahman Azad said the Rohingya refugees should have better health and education facilities, although their presence in Cox's Bazar is creating serious security problem along the entire southeastern region of Bangladesh.

Prof SK Tawfique M Haque, director at the SIPG, said Bangladesh has been providing humanitarian support to the Rohingya, although they have not been officially recognised as refugees. In that case, the government can think of granting them refugee status.

The idea of a safe zone or humanitarian corridor that Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus is advocating for can also be an option to prevent further Rohingya influx from Myanmar to Bangladesh, he added.

SIPG Senior Research Fellow Mohammad Sufiur Rahman, UN Resident Coordinator Gwyn Lewis, and UN Refugee Agency Country Representative Sumbul Rizvi, among others, spoke at the event.​
 

Major Myanmar ethnic rebel group says ready for talks
Agence France-Presse . Bangkok 26 November, 2024, 00:44

A major Myanmar ethnic rebel group said on Monday it was ready for talks with the junta to end more than a year of renewed fighting that has ravaged areas along the China border.

The Ta’ang National Liberation Army can call on around 7,000 fighters and has fought the Myanmar military for over a decade for autonomy for the Palaung ethnic minority in northern Shan state.

Last year the TNLA and two other allied rebel groups launched an offensive against the military that has seized swathes of Shan state, including ruby mines and a lucrative trade highway to China.

The military has repeatedly pounded territory it has lost with artillery and air strikes but a promised counter-offensive on the ground is yet to materialise.

‘We announce that we are ready to meet and discuss in order to end the military conflict from both sides,’ the TNLA said on its Telegram channel.

‘In the day-to-day fighting in our Ta’ang region the local people are suffering badly from the war.’

While it said it was ready for talks, it also added that it would reserve the ‘right to defend ourselves.’

‘We will talk, but we will not give territory,’ the TNLA’s General Tar Bhone Kyaw said.

AFP was unable to reach a junta spokesman for comment.

Myanmar’s embattled junta in September made an unprecedented invitation to its enemies to start talks, a bid dismissed at the time by rebel groups.

Analysts say Beijing has pressured the TNLA and its ally the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army to halt their operations against the junta.

China is a major ally and arms supplier of the junta, but also maintains ties with ethnic minority armed groups that hold territory near its border.

It has repeatedly called for fighting to stop in Shan state, a key link in its trillion-dollar Belt and Road initiative.

Last week Beijing said that the head of the MNDAA had come to China for ‘medical care’, after news reports in Myanmar said he had been arrested on China’s orders

In its statement Monday the TNLA said it ‘respects and recognises the efforts of the Chinese government to intervene in the border stabilisation and the cessation of hostilities.’

Myanmar is home to around a dozen ethnic armed rebel groups that have battled the military for decades for autonomy and control of lucrative resources including jade, timber and opium.

Some, including the TNLA, have given shelter and training to newer ‘People’s Defence Forces’ that sprung up to battle the military after it seized power in a 2021 coup.​
 

ICC prosecutor seeks arrest warrant for Myanmar junta chief
AFP
The Hague
Published: 27 Nov 2024, 20: 43

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Myanmar's junta chief Min Aung Hlaing Reuters file photo

The International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor on Wednesday asked judges to grant an arrest warrant for Myanmar's junta chief Min Aung Hlaing over alleged crimes against humanity committed against Rohingya Muslims.

Karim Khan's request to the court's Hague-based judges is the first application for an arrest warrant against a high-level Myanmar government official in connection with abuses against the Rohingya people.

"After an extensive, independent and impartial investigation, my office has concluded that there are reasonable grounds to believe that Senior General and Acting President Min Aung Hlaing... bears criminal responsibility for crimes against humanity," Khan said in a statement.

This included crimes of deportation and persecution, allegedly committed between 25 August and 31 December 2017, Khan added.

Myanmar's junta rejected the prosecutor's move, saying that as the country is not a member of the court, "the statements of the ICC have never been recognised."

The ICC prosecutor in 2019 opened a probe into suspected crimes committed against the Rohingya in Myanmar's restive Rakhine state in 2016 and 2017, that prompted the exodus of 750,000 of the Muslim minority in the southeast Asian country to neighbouring Bangladesh.

About one million Rohingya now live in sprawling camps near the Bangladesh border city of Cox's Bazaar. Many of those who left accuse the Myanmar military of mass killings and rapes.

'More will follow'

Khan said the alleged crimes were committed by Myanmar's armed forces, the Tatmadaw, supported by the national and border police "as well as non-Rohingya citizens."

"This is the first application for an arrest warrant against a high-level Myanmar government official," Khan said.

"More will follow," warned the prosecutor.

Myanmar has been racked by conflict between the military and various armed groups opposed to its rule since the army ousted Aung San Suu Kyi's elected government in February 2021.

The junta is reeling from a major rebel offensive last year that seized a large area of territory, much of it near the border with China.

Earlier this month, Min Aung Hlaing told China's Premier Li Qiang that the military was ready for peace if armed groups would engage, according to an account of the meeting in Myanmar state media.

'Cycle of abuses'

A military crackdown in Myanmar in 2017 sent hundreds of thousands of Rohingya fleeing into neighbouring Bangladesh, many with harrowing stories of murder, rape and arson.

Rohingya who remain in Myanmar are denied citizenship and access to healthcare and require permission to travel outside their townships.

Min Aung Hlaing -- who was head of the army during the crackdown -- has dismissed the term Rohingya as "imaginary".

ICC judges must now decide whether to grant the arrest warrants. If granted, the 124 members of the ICC would theoretically be obliged to arrest the junta chief if he travelled to their country.

China, a major ally and arms supplier of Myanmar's ruling junta, is not an ICC member.

Khan's request comes just days after the ICC issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his ex defence minister and a top Hamas leader over the war in Gaza.

Rights groups applauded Khan's Myanmar move, saying it was "an important step toward breaking the cycle of abuses and impunity that has long been a key factor in fuelling the military's mass violations."

"The judges will rule on the prosecutor's request, but ICC member countries should recognise this action as a reminder of the court's critical role when other doors to justice are closed," said Maria Elena Vignoli, a senior international lawyer Human Rights Watch.

Opening its doors in 2002, the Hague-based ICC is an independent court, set up to investigate and prosecute those accused of the world's worst crimes.​
 

Hope for justice for Rohingyas
Quazi Omar Foysal 28 November, 2024, 21:35

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Agence France-Presse

THE public statement of ICC prosecutor Karim Khan KC on the arrest warrant application against General Min Aung Hlaing during his recent visit to Bangladesh is a long-awaited but anticipated development in the ICC’s quest to ensure justice for the deported Rohingya population currently taking shelter in Bangladeshi refugee camps.

It is alleged that the acting president of Myanmar and commander-in-chief of the Myanmar Defence Services bears criminal responsibility for the crimes against humanity of deportation and persecution of the Rohingya. Now, the matter is pending final determination before a pre-trial chamber of the ICC. The ICC prosecutor further indicated that he may come up with more arrest warrant applications against top-ranked Burmese leaders in the Bangladesh-Myanmar situation.

The arrest warrant application resulted from the five-year-long investigation of the ICC’s Office of the Prosecutor. This development surfaced at a time when the ICC has been struggling with the fallout of its activities in other situations, notably the Palestine situation. Though the Office of the Prosecutor began its formal investigation in November 2019 following the authorisation of the pre-trial chamber, its procrastination in issuing arrest warrants against alleged Myanmar accused, despite mounting evidence, was widely criticised by the international community.

The Bangladesh/Myanmar situation is noted for its unique procedural history. The ICC, being a treaty-based international court, can generally exercise its jurisdiction over its member states. It was initially believed that the ICC did not enjoy any jurisdiction over the Rohingya situation due to Myanmar’s status as a non-party state to the Rome Statute.

Nevertheless, given the transboundary nature of the Rohingya deportation and Bangladesh’s status as a party to the Rome Statute, the then ICC prosecutor Fatou Bensouda took the unbeaten path to request the pre-trial chamber for a ruling to confirm the ICC’s jurisdiction over the deportation. Finally, the chamber confirmed the ICC’s jurisdiction over the Rohingya deportation on September 6, 2018 since the alleged crimes commenced in Myanmar but were completed in Bangladesh. However, the ICC does not enjoy jurisdiction over all the crimes committed completely in Myanmar for the same.

In the aftermath of the ICC’s confirmation of jurisdiction over the Rohingya deportation and persecution, the erstwhile prosecutor commenced the preliminary examination on the basis of her proprio motu power. She subsequently requested authorisation for an investigation before the pre-trial chamber on June 12, 2019, which was duly confirmed on November 14, 2019. As mentioned earlier, the prosecutor finally filed an arrest warrant application against General Hlaing on November 27, 2024.

This complex and time-consuming procedural patchwork is important to understand the nature of the arrest warrant application and its prospects. In fact, the ICC is reputed for its lengthy procedural timelines. It has been evident that the Office of the Prosecutor was relatively abrupt in commencing its investigation. On the contrary, it took an unusually lengthy time to proceed to the arrest warrant application despite having a wealth of incriminating evidence at its disposal, primarily collected by UN investigative bodies and subsequently by the Office of the Prosecutor itself.

While the ICC was deeply involved in the Ukraine and Palestine situations with investigations and arrest warrant applications in the last three years, its omission to shed light on the Bangladesh/Myanmar situation was marked by dismay among the Rohingya community. Ultimately, the prosecutor’s announcement of the arrest warrant application while standing in the Rohingya refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar is really significant for the Rohingya community.

The arrest warrant application has both symbolic and legal value. Legally, the application is subject to confirmation by a pre-trial chamber. It is very unlikely that the pre-trial chamber will decline to confirm the same. Very recently, the ICC issued arrest warrants against Russian president Vladimir Putin and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu despite their political sensitivity. Though the Myanmar leadership has some politically powerful allies, including China, the fact that the president of a permanent member of the UN Security Council has been subject to an ICC arrest warrant indicates that the ICC will rely on legal considerations rather than political repercussions while ruling on the arrest warrant.

The arrest warrant application against General Hlaing invites some inevitable legal complications. Most importantly, the Rome Statute does not provide for trials in absentia. Consequently, the issue of producing General Hlaing comes to the forefront. At this instance, his status as the head of state will be a hurdle in securing his presence before the ICC. This is due to the question of the immunity of high-ranking government officials, which is alleged to be unsettled in international law.

The ICC has been struggling to arrest several incumbent heads of state and heads of government of non-party states to the ICC. It has been an issue of legal and political discontent between the ICC and a number of ICC member states. These include Omar al-Bashir, Vladimir Putin, and, very recently, Benjamin Netanyahu. The arrest warrant application against General Hlaing, if ultimately issued, will resurface the same issue.

The absence of the accused before the ICC means the halt of the proceedings of a case. In that case, General Hlaing may succeed in escaping ICC proceedings by avoiding the arrest warrant. But it will not prevent him from facing the political consequences. He will be forced to rethink his international travel routes for the rest of his life. Global leaders will also reconsider their political and financial dealings with an ICC accused like him.

It has been seen in the past that arrest warrants issued by international criminal courts and tribunals have also impacted the ground realities of conflicts. When Myanmar is struggling in its domestic war theatre against rebels, this arrest warrant application, coupled with the prosecutor’s intention to lodge additional applications, will certainly affect the morale of the Myanmar military leadership. It will not be completely surprising if this arrest warrant application impacts the overall conflict situation in Myanmar.

The arrest warrant application can also be seen as a symbolic victory for the Rohingya community. It has already been seven years since the Rohingya were deported from their homeland to Bangladesh. Despite the hope for justice brought by the ICC in the early days of its investigation back in 2019, its delay in issuing arrest warrants despite two rounds of visits by prosecutor Karim Khan to Bangladesh raised questions about the effectiveness of the ICC itself. With this arrest warrant application in place, the Rohingya community will regain the moral strength to rethink their quest for justice and accountability.

This arrest warrant application also coincides with Myanmar’s application for extending the deadline for submitting its response to The Gambia’s allegation of the Rohingya genocide before the International Court of Justice, ICJ. It indicates that the junta-led Myanmar government will contest the ICJ case. It was speculated that Myanmar might opt to remain absent in the merits stage before the ICJ after its defeat in the preliminary objections stage. However, the indication that Myanmar will participate in the ICJ proceedings should be welcomed by the Rohingya community because it is preferable to have a hard-won legal battle than an overwhelming ex parte judgement.

Bangladesh should also take this moment to reinforce its diplomatic efforts to secure the safe and dignified repatriation of the Rohingya community at both bilateral and multilateral levels. At the same time, Bangladesh should reconsider intervening in the Rohingya genocide case before the ICJ.

Quazi Omar Foysal is an international law expert. He was part of the amicus curiae observation submitted by Bangladeshi non-government representatives in support of the ICC Prosecution’s request for jurisdiction over the Rohingya deportation.​
 

Another rebel group calls for talks with junta

A second major Myanmar ethnic rebel group has said it is ready for Beijing-mediated talks with the junta to end more than a year of renewed fighting that has ravaged areas along the Chinese border.

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), with about 8,000 available fighters, has fought the Myanmar military for more than a decade for autonomy for the Kokang ethnic minority in northern Shan state.

Last year, it and two other allied rebel groups launched an offensive against the military and seized swathes of Shan state, including ruby mines and a lucrative trade highway to China.

Last week, MNDAA ally the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) said it was ready for talks with the military.

The Arakan Army (AA), the third group in the rebel alliance, is still fighting the military in coastal Rakhine state in Myanmar's west.​
 

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