[🇧🇩] Insurgencies in Myanmar. Implications for Bangladesh

[Saif]

EU vows pressure on Myanmar, pledges €68m for Rohingyas

Visiting EU Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness and Crisis Management Hadja Lahbib yesterday assured that the European Union would impose political and economic pressure on Myanmar to resolve the Rohingya crisis

www.thedailystar.net

EU vows pressure on Myanmar, pledges €68m for Rohingyas

Photo: MoFA

Visiting EU Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness and Crisis Management Hadja Lahbib yesterday assured that the European Union would impose political and economic pressure on Myanmar to resolve the Rohingya crisis.

She also announced that the EU will provide €68 million this year for Rohingyas and the Bangladeshi host community in Cox's Bazar.

Lahbib made the pledges during a meeting with Foreign Adviser Md Touhid Hossain at the foreign ministry, according to a ministry statement.

During the meeting, the EU commissioner shared her first-hand experience from visiting Rohingya camps in Cox's Bazar yesterday and lauded Bangladesh's generosity in hosting the forcibly displaced Rohingyas.

She also praised Bangladesh's initiative in organising the High-level Conference on Rohingyas, scheduled to be held in New York in October 2025.

Beyond the Rohingya issue, Lahbib expressed the EU's strong support for the interim government and its reform initiatives.

"It's a pivotal moment in the history of Bangladesh, which needs new partnerships and new cooperation," the ministry statement quoted her as saying.

The foreign adviser said Bangladesh's relationship with the EU remains strong.

He thanked the EU commissioner for her visit and expressed deep concern over Myanmar's political situation and its impact on the Rohingya crisis and regional security.

Emphasising that the ultimate solution lies in the repatriation of the Rohingyas to Myanmar, he urged the international community to take action.

Both sides also discussed disaster management, recognising the need for stronger collaboration in preparedness and response, given the increasing frequency of natural calamities in both Europe and Bangladesh.

The foreign adviser thanked the EU for its support and sought continued technical and financial assistance to further improve Bangladesh's disaster management capabilities.

Earlier, Commissioner Lahbib met Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus.​

 

[Saif]

Junta chief heads for meeting with key ally Putin

Myanmar’s junta chief yesterday departed for talks with President Vladimir Putin in Russia, a key ally and arms supplier for the isolated state struggling to quell violent opposition to military rule.

www.thedailystar.net

Junta chief heads for meeting with key ally Putin

Myanmar's junta chief yesterday departed for talks with President Vladimir Putin in Russia, a key ally and arms supplier for the isolated state struggling to quell violent opposition to military rule.

Min Aung Hlaing, who seized power in a 2021 coup, left the capital Naypyidaw with a retinue of high-ranking officials, according the junta's information service, and is due to meet Putin today.

Analysts say Moscow's support has become vital to the military administration, particularly its air force, as it battles an array of ethnic minority armed groups and pro-democracy guerrillas on multiple fronts.

The junta suffered significant territorial losses after a 2023 rebel offensive but its air power has been pivotal to arresting the advance of opposition forces.

"Russia has been invaluable in helping them keep their air fleet afloat," Morgan Michaels, research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, told AFP.​

 

[Saif]

Upcoming visit of Guterres and Rohingya crisis

The upcoming visit of United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres to Bangladesh, scheduled from March 13 to 16, 2025, comes at a pivotal moment in the protracted Rohingya refugee crisis. Since 2017 over one million Rohingya refugees have fled their homeland in Myanmar's Rakhine State,

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Upcoming visit of Guterres and Rohingya crisis
MIR MOSTAFIZUR RAHAMAN
Published :
Mar 03, 2025 22:21
Updated :
Mar 03, 2025 22:21

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres -- File Photo

The upcoming visit of United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres to Bangladesh, scheduled from March 13 to 16, 2025, comes at a pivotal moment in the protracted Rohingya refugee crisis. Since 2017 over one million Rohingya refugees have fled their homeland in Myanmar's Rakhine State, seeking sanctuary in neighboring Bangladesh. This mass exodus has not only created one of the largest humanitarian crises of our time but has also placed an immense socio-economic burden on Bangladesh, a country already grappling with its own developmental challenges. As the UN chief prepares to visit Dhaka, it is expected that the international community's attention will be once again drawn to the plight of the Rohingyas and the urgent need for a sustainable solution to this crisis.

The Rohingya crisis is a stark reminder of the failures of global governance and the inadequacies of international mechanisms to address forced displacement and ethnic persecution. Despite numerous high-level discussions, diplomatic efforts, and promises, not a single Rohingya refugee has been repatriated to Myanmar. The refugees continue to live in overcrowded camps in Cox's Bazar, enduring conditions that are nearly inhuman. The lack of adequate healthcare, education, and livelihood opportunities has left the Rohingya community in a state of despair, with many losing hope for a better future. The situation is further exacerbated by the ongoing civil war in Myanmar, where the ruling military junta is losing control over vast territories, including Rakhine State, which is now under the control of the Arakan Army, a rebel group fighting against the government.

Against this backdrop, the UN Secretary-General's visit to Bangladesh is seen as a critical opportunity to reinvigorate international efforts to resolve the Rohingya crisis. In a letter to Bangladesh's Chief Adviser, Dr. Muhammad Yunus, Mr. Guterres reiterated the importance of expediting the safe and voluntary repatriation of the Rohingya to their homeland. He pledged to work with all stakeholders, including regional actors and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), to create conditions conducive to their return. This commitment is a welcome step, but it must be followed by concrete actions to address the root causes of the crisis and ensure the safety and dignity of the Rohingya people.

The Secretary-General's letter also highlighted the UN's efforts to mobilise international support for Bangladesh as the host country. He assured that the United Nations would continue to provide humanitarian aid and livelihood support to the Rohingya and other affected communities in Rakhine. Additionally, Mr. Guterres emphasised the importance of enabling safe, rapid, and unhindered humanitarian access to those in need in Rakhine and throughout Myanmar. These assurances are crucial, but they must be backed by sustained financial and political commitments from the international community.

One of the key challenges in resolving the Rohingya crisis is the lack of a unified and coordinated approach among global stakeholders. While Bangladesh has shown remarkable generosity in hosting the refugees, it cannot bear this burden alone. The international community must step up its efforts to share the responsibility and provide the necessary resources to support the Rohingya and their host country. The upcoming High-level Conference on the situation of Rohingya Muslims and other minorities in Myanmar, as mentioned by Mr. Guterres, could be a significant opportunity to galvanize global attention and develop a comprehensive plan of action. However, the success of this conference will depend on the willingness of member states to move beyond rhetoric and take concrete steps toward a political solution.

The Rohingya crisis is not just a humanitarian issue; it is also a threat to regional stability. Experts have long warned that the prolonged displacement of the Rohingya could lead to radicalization and exacerbate security challenges in the region. Reports of Rohingya involvement in criminal activities, including human trafficking, drug smuggling, and even terrorism, are deeply concerning. These issues underscore the urgent need for a holistic approach that addresses both the immediate humanitarian needs of the refugees and the long-term political and security implications of the crisis.

The visit of the UN Secretary-General to Bangladesh is an opportunity to put the Rohingya crisis back in the global spotlight. In recent years, the issue has been overshadowed by other refugee crises, such as those in Sudan, Gaza, and Ukraine. While these crises deserve equal attention, the world must not forget the plight of the Rohingya, who have been denied their basic rights and dignity for far too long. The international community must recognse that the Rohingya crisis is not just a regional problem but a global responsibility.

Another issue of grave concern is the decline in humanitarian aid to the Rohingya refugees. The UNSG also needs to highlight this angle of saving the lives of over a million people.

As Mr. Guterres prepares to engage with Bangladeshi leaders and other stakeholders during his visit, it is imperative that he uses his influence to push for a coordinated and inclusive approach to resolving the crisis. This includes engaging with Myanmar's military government, the Arakan Army, and other regional actors to create a conducive environment for the safe return of the Rohingya. It also requires addressing the root causes of the crisis, including the systemic discrimination and persecution faced by the Rohingya in Myanmar.

The UN Secretary-General's visit to Bangladesh is a reminder that the world cannot afford to turn a blind eye to the suffering of the Rohingya. The crisis is a test of the international community's commitment to human rights, justice, and the principles of the United Nations. As Mr. Guterres himself has acknowledged, the solution to the Rohingya crisis requires a political solution in Myanmar, supported by sustained international engagement and solidarity. The time for action is now. The Rohingya people have waited long enough for justice and a chance to return to their homeland with dignity and safety. The world must not fail them again.​

 

[Saif]

4,000 displaced by battle for port site in Rakhine

Fierce fighting between Myanmar’s military junta and ethnic minority rebels closing in on the planned site of a strategic China-backed port has displaced 4,000 people, a local aid worker said yesterday.

www.thedailystar.net

4,000 displaced by battle for port site in Rakhine
Says Myanmar aid group

Fierce fighting between Myanmar's military junta and ethnic minority rebels closing in on the planned site of a strategic China-backed port has displaced 4,000 people, a local aid worker said yesterday.

The Arakan Army (AA) is battling the military in western Rakhine state, where projects including oil pipelines, power plants and transport links are sprouting up with billions of dollars of Chinese funding. The region has emerged as a key front in Myanmar's civil war, pitching a myriad of rebels and pro-democracy fighters against the junta.​

 

[Saif]

UN to halve food budget for Rohingyas in Bangladesh camps

The United Nations is going to reduce its allocation for food for Rohingyas in Bangladesh from $12.50 to $6 a month per person from the next month...

www.newagebd.net

UN to halve food budget for Rohingyas in Bangladesh camps
Staff Correspondent 05 March, 2025, 23:14

The United Nations is going to reduce its allocation for food for Rohingyas in Bangladesh from $12.50 to $6 a month per person from the next month.

Officials at the Office of the Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner said that they received a letter from the UN in this regard on Wednesday.

‘We are aware of the decision to reduce food support for the Rohingya people sheltered in Bangladesh camps. We are working with the donors and the donors are also working among themselves to find a way to address it,’ said Khalilur Rahman, high representative on Rohingya problem and priority issues affairs to the chief adviser.

He told New Age that the government was hopeful of a positive outcome soon.

The officials at the RRRC said that the UN letter had mentioned that the UN would reduce the allocation for food for Rohingyas from April 1 due to fund shortage.

According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the interim government has continued efforts to send back Rohingyas to their homeland Myanmar without any progress, with the number of displaced people sheltered in Bangladesh camps now standing at 1.3 million.

Myanmar’s military regime and international communities, including the United Nations Refugee Agency, have generally been blamed for the failure to send back Rohingya people to Myanmar since the large-scale exodus that began in August 2017, amid a military crackdown on the persecuted community in the Rakhine state of Myanmar.

The number of Rohingyas sheltered in Bangladesh camps is increasing with an average new births of 30,000 every year.

The government data shows that, out of the total Rohingya people sheltered in Bangladesh camps, 10,05,520 are registered.​

 

[Saif]

RSO member stabbed to death in Rohingya camp in Ukhiya

A member of the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation was stabbed to death allegedly by the members of their rival organisation, Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, at Block M in the camp-20 under Ukhiya upazila in Cox’s Bazar Tuesday night...

www.newagebd.net

RSO member stabbed to death in Rohingya camp in Ukhiya
Staff Correspondent 05 March, 2025, 20:42

A member of the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation was stabbed to death allegedly by the members of their rival organisation, Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, at Block M in the camp-20 under Ukhiya upazila in Cox’s Bazar Tuesday night.

The deceased, Mohammad Nur, 30, of the camp, is the head majhi of the camp. Head majhi is the leader of a particular community of Rohingyas.

The police arrested a Rohingya youth, Md Mozammel, 32, on Wednesday for his alleged involvement in the murder.

14th Armed Police Battalion commander Siraj Amin, also an additional deputy inspector general, said that Nur was stabbed by four or five miscreants with sharp weapons at about 8:30pm on Tuesday inside the camp.

He died on the spot, the police officer said.

‘Nur met the fatal attack when he was on his way to his shed from his grocery shop. The miscreants fled the scene after stabbing Nur in the dark,’ said Siraj.

Several police officials and local people claimed that the attack was carried out by ARSA members.

Ukhiya police station officer-in-charge Mohammad Arif Hossain said that they arrested a Rohingya youth in this connection on Wednesday and a murder case was also filed against 13 people.

Asked about the allegations of the attack by ARSA members, OC Arif said that they were investigating the matter.​

 

[Saif]

World community must work on UN Rohingya food aid cut

THE United Nations’ sudden and drastic reduction in monthly food aid, by 52 per cent, could be devastating for more than a million of the Rohingyas now sheltered in Bangladesh. The World Food Programme on March 5 announced that it would reduce its allocation for food for the Rohingyas in...

www.newagebd.net

World community must work on UN Rohingya food aid cut
07 March, 2025, 00:00

THE United Nations’ sudden and drastic reduction in monthly food aid, by 52 per cent, could be devastating for more than a million of the Rohingyas now sheltered in Bangladesh. The World Food Programme on March 5 announced that it would reduce its allocation for food for the Rohingyas in Bangladesh from $12.5 to $6 per person beginning on April 1 and cited a fund shortage as the reason for the decision. The UN office is reported to have verbally conveyed the decision to the Bangladesh government the day before. The UN move would very well result in a huge blow to not only the sustenance but also the health and safety of the largest refugee settlement in the world. The number of the Rohingyas staying in Bangladesh exceeds 1.3 million, with the large-scale influx having taken place since August 2017 against the backdrop of violence against the Rohingyas, which the United Nations that time likened to ‘a textbook example of ethnic cleansing.’ The Rohingya population is also reported to be increasing by 30,000 new births on an average every year. Official data say that 1,005,520 of the Rohingya people in Bangladesh are registered.

Khalilur Rahman, who was appointed the high representative to the chief adviser on Rohingya crisis and priority affairs on November 19, 2024, seeks to say that the government is working with donors, who are working among themselves, to find a way out of this situation, hoping for an early positive outcome. The ministry of foreign affairs also says that the interim government is keeping up efforts to repatriate the Rohingyas to their homeland Myanmar. But nothing tangible has been forthcoming on this front. The failure in the repatriation of the Rohingyas is blamed on Myanmar’s military regime, which has created a fearful situation and deflected any bilateral or multilateral efforts for a sustainable repatriation of the Rohingyas, and the world community, including the United Nations, which has failed to impress on Myanmar to take back the Rohingyas. Some efforts started brewing in the initial days and they petered out soon. A temporary food aid reduction by a third beginning in March 2023 is reported to have resulted in an observable decrease in food consumption, an increase in malnutrition and gender-based violence and a reduction in children’s attendance to learning centres. Food assistance is reported to have made up about 70 per cent of the household food expenditure in the camps that time.

The reduction in food aid this time, if it could not be attended to early, could have a telling impact on the Rohingyas. The world community should, therefore, make up for the UN food aid cut as the Rohingya crisis is what world leaders have also failed to address.​

 

[Saif]

Rohingya refugees pushed to the brink of starvation

WFP’s food aid cuts may lead to a humanitarian disaster

www.thedailystar.net

Rohingya refugees pushed to the brink of starvation
WFP’s food aid cuts may lead to a humanitarian disaster

VISUAL: STAR

The World Food Programme (WFP)'s decision to cut monthly food aid for Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh from $12.50 to just $6 per person will have devastating consequences. Relief workers have long argued that even the $12.50 allocation is insufficient. A previous round of cuts in 2023, reducing food rations to $8 per month, led to a sharp rise in hunger and malnutrition, according to the UN. Within months, 90 percent of the camp population was "struggling to access an adequate diet," and 15 percent of children suffered from malnutrition—the highest recorded rate. As a result, the cut was later reversed.

Despite this reversal, relief officials maintain that the current meagre allocation is still inadequate for maintaining a nutritious diet. The WFP itself acknowledges that reducing rations below $6 now would "fall below the minimum survival level and fail to meet basic dietary needs." In other words, the new $6 allocation represents the absolute bare minimum required for survival. How can the international community expect the Rohingya people to subsist on "the bare minimum" indefinitely?

With more than 1.1 million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh entirely dependent on humanitarian aid, this drastic cut will put immense strain on families already struggling to meet basic needs. It will likely escalate tensions within the camps, potentially leading to increased violence, crime, and drug trafficking. As desperation grows, more Rohingyas may attempt to break out of the camps, increasing the risk of confrontations with locals. Clearly, this situation poses serious challenges for Bangladesh.

With more than 1.1 million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh entirely dependent on humanitarian aid, this drastic cut will put immense strain on families already struggling to meet basic needs. It will likely escalate tensions within the camps, potentially leading to increased violence, crime, and drug trafficking. As desperation grows, more Rohingyas may attempt to break out of the camps, increasing the risk of confrontations with locals. Clearly, this situation poses serious challenges for Bangladesh.

It remains unclear whether the WFP's decision was influenced by the Trump administration's termination of USAID funding worldwide, but such suspicions have been raised. When the decision was initially announced in January, emergency food aid was reportedly supposed to remain unaffected. It is therefore even more alarming that the UN has now opted to cut food rations for the Rohingya population.

Given the circumstances, the government must urgently develop a contingency plan. The reduction in rations will not only harm the Rohingya population but also risk fuelling unrest in the camps, which could spill over and impact local communities. These outcomes must be prevented at all costs. Therefore, the government should immediately engage the international community to secure funding commitments. The global community has a moral obligation to ensure that Rohingya refugees receive at least the minimum necessary to live a decent life and to support Bangladesh, which, despite its own challenges, has done everything possible to assist them.​

 

[Saif]

Myanmar’s Civil War: Security Implications for Bangladesh – South Asian Voices

The takeover of western Myanmar by Ethnic Armed Organizations is changing the geopolitical and security landscape for Bangladesh.

southasianvoices.org

Myanmar’s Civil War: Security Implications for Bangladesh
Written by Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan
June 26, 2024

The success of the renewed offensive by anti-junta forces throughout Myanmar in recent months poses critical policy questions for Bangladesh.

While the failing junta government, led by the State Administration Council (SAC), now controls less than 50 percent of the country, one of the most significant rebel gains has been concentrated in western Myanmar. This geographical area mainly comprises Chin and Rakhine State, bordering Bangladesh’s restive southeastern Bandarban and Cox’s Bazar districts. The former is seeing the rise of a new ethnic insurgency led by the Kuki Chin National Front (KNF), while the latter houses 33 major Rohingya refugee camps that have recently seen the mushrooming of armed groups. Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) like the Arakan Army (AA) and Chin National Army (CNA) asserting their control on western Myanmar has significant security and geopolitical implications for southeastern Bangladesh. In response, Dhaka should take prudent measures to address this fallout based on ground realities. This includes establishing contact with the EAOs, collaborating with regional partners to arrange this dialogue, and bolstering its security measures in the Rohingya camps and near the border.

Spillover Effects of Western Myanmar’s Crisis on Bangladesh

Major offensives in western Myanmar led by AA and CNA have engulfed most of the region’s townships, including strategic areas bordering Bangladesh and India. Both AA and CNA are cooperating in order to eliminate the junta and achieve total control of western Myanmar. These EAOs have had several operational successes, such as AA’s capture of about 170 junta military posts in Rakhine and CNA’s control of 70 percent of Chin State, including five major military bases.

This overt change of authority from the junta to EAOs in just one year has a direct impact on Bangladesh. The significant influence of the KNF in Myanmar through its alliance with the CNA has resulted in an uptick of insurgent activity in Bangladesh’s Bandarban district. Dhaka is now facing a new geopolitical environment on its border, which requires dealing with new actors with which it has no communication, let alone any direct relations.

Dhaka is now facing a new geopolitical environment on its border, which requires dealing with new actors with which it has no communication, let alone any direct relations.

Historically, southeastern Bangladesh, which consists mainly of the Chittagong Division, has been a sensitive and volatile zone with regard to the country’s security and stability. The long-fought insurgency in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) ended in 1997 with historic peace accords, but the roots of the insurgency still remain. This is apparent from the recent clashes between the Joint Forces of Bangladesh and the ethno-nationalist KNF.

The KNF has significant cultural and social ties with the ethnic Kuki-Chin people prevailing in Mizoram of India and the Chin state of Myanmar. In the last three months alone, members of the Bangladesh Army have been the targets of direct attacks from the KNF, including violent robberies in Bandarban and attacks on police stations. Ground reports reveal that KNF fighters have received additional training from EAOs in Myanmar. Furthermore, many fighters in Chin and Rakhine-based EAOs are ethnic Kuki-Chin people. Therefore, there is cross-border ethnic solidarity, asylum facilities, and training inside the Chin State and Rakhine if they face any disadvantage inside Bangladesh.

The anti-junta offensive may also have considerable impact on the one million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar, a region which directly borders Myanmar. Due to geographical proximity to ethnic violence and their prolonged deprivation in camps, some Rohingyas have been turned violent by various armed factions and groups in the region. There are reportedly 11 armed Rohingya groups operating inside the camps, the most prominent being the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and Rohingya Solidarity Organizations (RSO). Thus, the EAOs’ heightened control of western Myanmar may result in KNF insurgents using the volatile border to smuggle arms or receive training and clandestine safety from EAOs. Consequently, armed groups inside Rohingya camps could collude with EAOs on human trafficking, forceful recruitment, and narcotics routing.

Moreover, armed Rohingya groups have varied relationships with actors in the current civil war in Myanmar, which could create further destabilizing effects. The relationship of the Rohingyas to the AA is as hostile as with the junta. The SAC’s recent drive to recruit Rohingyas can bolster this animosity. On the other hand, armed groups inside Rohingya camps can establish a haven in Rakhine State due to the collapse of adequate border security. A prolonged refugee crisis, a slow-paced repatriation process, and rising violence inside camps, combined with a volatile border, unpredictable EAO relationships, and diverse interests, could create a breeding ground for new conflict and violence.

Dhaka Must Respond

Bangladesh has yet to take any significant measures to address these developments. This is because Dhaka has always focused on staying neutral on the internal affairs of any state based on its dovish foreign policy stance and nonintervention principles. It seems to be trying to decode the motives of these EAOs, which is further complicated by Chinese and Indian efforts to influence these groups for their geopolitical interests.

First, policymakers should recognize that the SAC is no longer a viable authority in western Myanmar. Thus, Dhaka would have to disregard its traditional skepticism and distrust of non-state actors and establish channels of communications with EAOs across the border, not least to curb the tense security situation on its border through diplomacy. This is particularly important for the prolonged and protracted Rohingya refugee crisis. Several efforts to voluntarily repatriate the refugees back to Rakhine have faced blowback. Most recently, a China-brokered scheme was rejected by the Rohingyas for not ensuring security and providing rehabilitation guarantees. To find a sustainable negotiation on refugee repatriation, Dhaka should focus on developing confidence building measures with the EAOs. This can be a win-win situation for AA and Dhaka as it will informally acknowledge AA’s authority in Rakhine while also benefiting the latter if it leads to formal repatriation of Rohingya refugees. The Bangladeshi government should also initiate a security dialogue with AA and CNA to find a solution to the cross-border movement of armed groups and cooperation with the KNF.

Dhaka would have to disregard its traditional skepticism and distrust of non-state actors and establish channels of communications with EAOs across the border, not least to curb the tense security situation on its border through diplomacy.

To support its efforts, Bangladesh should look for viable diplomatic partners for cooperation on these issues. India, recognizing the shift in power to EAOs, seems to be doing outreach to the AA to secure its interests. Dhaka could take a leaf out of New Delhi’s book and do the same, or even seek New Delhi’s help in facilitating this contact. Bangladesh could also initiate a dialogue with India to share assessments of and coordinate actions to deal with the instability in Myanmar, given that cooperation with China is unlikely due to its strong relationship with SAC. Finally, Dhaka must bolster border security, protection, and surveillance measures to prevent spillover of violence and instability into Bangladesh. Recent fighting between AA and SAC near Saint Martins in Bangladesh justifies the necessity of more robust security measures. Both tough and soft approaches, including regular checks on arms smuggling, capturing of gang leaders, and community recreational activities for refugees, should be undertaken by the Bangladeshi government, to ensure both a short and a long-term solution to this multi-pronged crisis.​

 

[Saif]

A Civil War in Myanmar, a Regional Threat to South Asia

 

[Saif]

How is Myanmar's civil war impacting Bangladesh? – DW – 02/22/2024

Fighting between Myanmar's junta and rebel groups in Rakhine state is growing more intense. Neighboring Bangladesh may soon need to reach out to rebels on security and refugee issues.

www.dw.com

How is Myanmar's civil war impacting Bangladesh?
Arafatul Islam in Cox's Bazar
02/22/2024February 22, 2024

Bangladesh is closely watching the fighting in Myanmar's neighboring Rakhine state

Fighting between Myanmar's junta and rebel groups in Rakhine state is growing more intense. Neighboring Bangladesh may soon need to reach out to rebels on security and refugee issues.

Fighting between Myanmar's junta and the Arakan Army (AA) rebel group in western Myanmar's Rakhine state has intensified. Casualties have also been recorded in Bangladesh, with two people killed by an errant mortar round this month and several injured by gunshots from across the border. Rebel fighters have recently taken control of the Myanmar border region, and are seeking to oust junta forces from elsewhere in the state.

This comes as a heavy blow for the Myanmar's ruling junta, which seized power in February 2021 from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi to find itself embroiled in a wide-scale civil war.

The Arakan Army is the military wing of the Rakhine ethnic minority that seeks autonomy from Myanmar's central government. It has been attacking army outposts in Rakhine state since November 2023.

Rohingya refugees skeptical of return to Rakhine

Bangladesh is a predominantly Muslim country, which shares a 271-kilometer (168 miles) border with Buddhist-dominated Myanmar.

Bangladesh is also the home of more than a million mostly Muslim Rohingya refugees, which have been fleeing Myanmar for decades, and especially after Myanmar launched a brutal "clearance operation" in Rakhine state against them in 2017.

Talking to DW, several Rohingya refugees in the coastal Bangladeshi town of Cox's Bazar commented on the success of the AA rebels with skepticism. They do not believe that predominantly Buddhist rebel force is willing to do much to improve their fate, even if the rebels manage to oust the junta.

"Buddhists have indeed been fighting against the Myanmar government in Rakhine, but we want citizenship upon return," Rashid, a Rohingya camp leader, told DW.

"We have never heard from [the AA] that they will take us back by providing us citizenship."

Should Dhaka reach out to rebels?

However, Bangladeshi security expert M Sakhawat Hossain is more optimistic. The retired general points to pledges made by Myanmar's National Unity Government (NUG) to ensure safe, voluntary and dignified repatriation of Rohingya from Bangladesh.

The NUG is a shadow government comprised out of activists and elected ministers who were ousted by the military coup.

The body enjoys a good deal of international support and has plans of taking power in Naypyidaw after the junta is defeated.

"The United League of Arakan (ULA), the political wing of the Arakan Army, will rule Rakhine state if the junta government loses its battles against the rebels and the NUG takes control of Myanmar. The NUG supports the ULA, which means that the Rohingya community has a better chance to get citizenship under the NUG and ULA," Hossain told DW.

He thinks that Bangladesh needs to develop informal communication with key decision-makers in Rakhine for the future.

"I have been saying for years that Bangladesh needs to support the AA for its own interest. This support can be informal, like many other countries do. It's not important for Bangladesh what is happening in the whole of Myanmar, but what is happening in Rakhine and Chin states are very important for us in terms of security and refugee issues," he said.

Bangladeshi authorities hope to stop new refugee waves out of MyanmarImage: Arafatul Islam/DW

Sending back Rohingya could backfire

At the same time, Bangladesh must be cautious in reaching out to rebels in any way, according to Michael Kugelman, South Asia director of the Washington-based Wilson Center think tank.

"[Bangladesh] needs workable relations with the junta for the sake of border security cooperation and negotiations over the Rohingya. If Dhaka opens up channels with the rebels and the junta knows this, that could have deleterious implications for Dhaka's interests," he told DW.

Kugelman acknowledged that the rebels are making rapid gains against the junta. But this could push the junta to resort to even more brutal tactics, and that could in turn intensify the conflict and increase spillover effects in Bangladesh.

"AA gains or control in Rakhine may make conditions better for the Rohingya, but it could also make things more difficult," Kugelman said. The junta could interpret any initiative to repatriate the Rohingya refugees as a signal of cooperation between the Muslim group and the Buddhist rebels, which could "entail fresh threats to Rohingya communities," he told DW.

Smoke rises from fighting in Myanmar, seen from the Bangladesh side of the borderImage: Shafiqur Rahman/AP/picture alliance

Bangladesh doesn't want more refugeees

Meanwhile, Rohingya in Rakhine's Maungdaw area remain trapped amid fierce fighting between the junta forces and the AA rebels, Nay San Lwin, a co-founder of the Free Rohingya Coalition, told DW.

"The junta is losing on the battlefield, and the Rohingya are running to save their lives while the Arakan Army is attempting to take full control of the region," he said.

"In Buthidaung and Maungdaw townships, approximately 270,000 Rohingya are remaining. In the entire Rakhine state, there are approximately 600,000 Rohingya, including about 130,000 confined to camps," he added.

Nay runs one of the biggest Rohingya information hubs from Frankfurt, Germany. He thinks that the remaining Rohingya in Mynamar will attempt to flee the civil war, but would avoid Bangladesh.

"Rohingya in the region are very cautious about fleeing to Bangladesh. Many of their fellow Rohingya have been trapped in Bangladeshi camps for several years, and the prospect of repatriation is uncertain," he told DW.

"Only those in need of medical attention are attempting to flee to seek treatment in Bangladesh due to insufficient medical staff at Maungdaw Hospital. According to residents, the surgeon has left," Nay added.

And Bangladesh, already overwhelmed by continuous waves of refugees, is not in the mood to accept anyone from Myanmar at the moment.

"Our Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) and coast guard have intensified their petrol at the border so that no one from Myanmar could infiltrate into Bangladesh," Muhammad Shaheen Imran, the deputy commissioner of Cox's Bazar, told DW.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic​

 

[Saif]

Rohingya entry from Myanmar into Bangladesh goes on

Rohingya people are still entering Bangladesh from Mymanmar’s conflict-hit state of Rakhine illegally by paying money to boatmen and brokers on both sides of the border.

www.newagebd.net

Rohingya entry from Myanmar into Bangladesh goes on
Tanzil Rahaman back from Cox’s Bazar 09 March, 2025, 00:00

File photo

53,948 registered in 2024, each pays over Tk 1 lakh to cross border

Rohingya people are still entering Bangladesh from Mymanmar’s conflict-hit state of Rakhine illegally by paying money to boatmen and brokers on both sides of the border.

The Rohingya intruders are using land and river routes along borders under Ukhiya and Teknaf upazilas in Cox’s Bazar and Naikhongchhari Upazila in Bandarban to reach Bangladesh, the community people and officials in Cox’s Bazar said.

According to the Office of the Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner, 53,948 Rohingyas received temporary joint registration from the RRRC and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees for entering the camps in 2024. Most of them took registration in August and September of the year.

In 2024, a total of 225 Rohingyas were registered in January, 115 in February, 101 in March, 229 in April, 314 in May, 1, 135 in June, 5,809 in July, 27, 879 in August, 15, 296 in September, 2,546 in October, 179 in November and 120 Rohingyas were registered in December, according to the RRRC data.

It also showed that 116 were registered in January and 40 in February in 2025.

There are 34 camps for Rohingyas in Ukhiya and Teknaf of Cox’s Bazar and Bhasan Char in Noakhali, RRRC officials said.

Border Guard Bangladesh officials, however, said that they had sent back over 15,000 Rohingyas from borders in Ukhiya and Teknaf from May 2024 to February 2025.

A number of Rohingya people who entered Bangladesh illegally in 2024 alleged that each of them had to pay nearly 20 lakh Myanmar Kyat, equivalent to Tk 1.16 lakh, to both Myanmar and Bangladeshi people to enter Bangladesh.

Of the 20 lakh Mymanmar Kyat, the Rohingyas had to pay 15 lakh Kyat, equivalent to Tk 87,090, to Arakan Army and Kyat 5 lakh, equivalent to Tk 29,030, to boatmen and brokers.

Mujib Ullah, 40, a resident of Buthidaung town in the Northen Rakhaine State of Myanmar, entered Bangladesh by boat through the Teknaf border with his wife and six children on December 10, 2024.

‘I had to pay 60 lakh kyat for three persons – myself, my wife and my adult child. As my five other children are minors and teenagers, I did not have to pay for them. Of the amount, I had to pay 45 lakh kyat to Arakan Army and 15 lakh to boatmen and brokers,’ Mujib Ullah, now staying at a camp in Ukhiya, told New Age on March 2.

He said that he entered Bangladesh by boat crossing the River Naf and none of the law enforcement agencies was seen during his intrusion.

He claimed that the Arakan Army had arrested his only brother, vandalised and set fire to their house.

‘I have no other option but to flee with my family to save our lives,’ Mujib added.

Echoing almost the same expenditure, Sawiddur Rahman, another resident of Buthidaung town in Northern Rakhine State in Myanmar, said that he, his wife and three children entered Bangladesh using the land route on December 7, 2024 in the Tambru area of Naikkhangchhari in Bandarban.

‘I had to pay 60 lakh to the Arakan Army for myself, my wife and two children. The broker took Tk 15 lakh for five persons to enter into Bangladesh using the No Man’s Land along Tambru border,’ Sawiddur, living in another camp in Ukhiya said.

Like Mujib Ullah and Sawiddur Rahman, several Rohingyas sheltered in the camp recently expressed the same experience.

Most of the Rohingyas said that they entered Bangladesh in the dark of night between 10:00pm and 4:00am.

They, however, claimed that they did not require paying money for their minor children as the money was collected for only adult people.

Although BGB officials claimed that they never heard about collecting money by the Arakan Army, boatmen and brokers, Armed Police Battalion officials said that they heard about the matter from the people in Rohingya camps.

A racket comprising people from Myanmar and Bangladesh is working in the area to help Rohingyas enter Bangladesh illegally, according to Border Guard Bangladesh officials.

On March 1, the BGB launched its 64 Ukhiya Battalion in Cox’s Bazar amid rising tension between the Myanmar military junta and the Arakan Army along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border.

With the latest Ukhiya Battalion, the BGB now has four battalions in Cox’s Bazar district.

BGB Teknaf-2 battalion Commander Lieutenant Colonel Md Ashikur Rahman said that they had sent back more than 15, 000 Rohingyas who tried to enter Bangladesh illegally from May 2024 to February 2025.

‘The victims did not share about spending money to us during interrogation,’ he added.

Asked about the intrusion of Rohingyas in nighttime, he said that it would be difficult to cover a large area with the physical presence of BGB members.

‘We have to update our monitoring by using upgraded devices to check illegal Rohingya intrusion,’ the BGB official added.

APBN 16th Battalion commanding officer Kawser Shikdar, also an additional deputy inspector general of police, said that they heard about the issue of taking money from Rohingyas to enter Bangladesh.

Local people and Rohingyas alleged that many Rohingyas were now living outside the camps and involved in criminal activities with the help of a section of local people.

RRRC top official Mohammed Mizanur Rahman said that the number of people outside the camp was low.

Cox’s Bazar deputy commissioner Mohammad Salahuddin told New Age on Saturday that the BGB required some advanced technologies to tackle the illegal intrusion of Rohingyas and middlemen in the Bangladesh part.

‘We are trying our best to tackle the illegal intrusion of Rohingyas,’ the DC added.

Against the backdrop, the United Nations World Food Programme has warned of a critical funding shortfall for its emergency response operations in Bangladesh, jeopardising food assistance for over one million displaced Rohingya people in Bangladesh.

Without urgent new funding, monthly rations must be halved to $6 per person, down from $12.50 per person – just as Rohingyas prepare to observe Eid-ul-Fitr, said a WFP press release on March 7.

Asked about the impact of the food ration cut in camps and overall law and order, RRRC top official Mohammed Mizanur Rahman said that ‘hungry people always remain angry’ and Rohingyas would be involved in criminal activities.

‘Yaba smuggling would increase in the region. The UN fund is the lone source of food ration for Rohingyas,’ he added.

According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the interim government has continued efforts to send back Rohingyas to their homeland Myanmar without any progress, with the number of displaced people sheltered in Bangladesh camps now standing at 1.3 million.

Myanmar’s military regime and international communities, including the United Nations Refugee Agency, have generally been blamed for the failure to send back Rohingya people to Myanmar since the large-scale exodus that began in August 2017, amid a military crackdown on the persecuted community in the Rakhine state of Myanmar.

The number of Rohingyas sheltered in Bangladesh camps is increasing with average new births of 30,000 every year.

The government data shows that, out of the total Rohingya people sheltered in Bangladesh camps, 10,05,520 are registered.​

 

[Saif]

Election to be held by Jan: Myanmar junta chief

Myanmar’s junta chief said the country would hold an election in December or January, the first in the war-torn nation since the military staged a coup in 2021.

www.newagebd.net

Election to be held by Jan: Myanmar junta chief
Agence France-Presse . Bangkok, Thailand 09 March, 2025, 00:45

Myanmar’s junta chief said the country would hold an election in December or January, the first in the war-torn nation since the military staged a coup in 2021.

‘We are planning to hold the election in December 2025 or ... by January 2026,’ General Min Aung Hlaing was quoted as saying in the state-run newspaper Global New Light of Myanmar published Saturday.

The vote would be ‘free and fair’ he said on Friday during a state visit to Belarus, adding that 53 political parties had ‘submitted their lists’ to participate.

‘We also invite observation teams from Belarus to come and observe’ the slated election, he said during a meeting with Belarusian president Aleksandr Lukashenko in Minsk.

The Myanmar military seized power in 2021, making unsubstantiated claims of massive electoral fraud in 2020 polls won resoundingly by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy.

It has since unleashed a bloody crackdown on dissent and as fighting ravages swathes of the country had repeatedly delayed plans for fresh polls that critics say will be neither free nor fair.

The junta is struggling to crush widespread opposition to its rule from ethnic rebel groups and pro-democracy ‘People’s Defence Forces’.

In 2022, the junta-stacked election commission announced that Suu Kyi’s NLD would be dissolved for failing to re-register under a tough new military-drafted electoral law.

Junta-appointed foreign minister Than Swe in December told delegates from five neighbouring countries at a meeting in Bangkok that ‘progress was being made’ towards an election in 2025.

The junta in January extended an already-prolonged state of emergency by six months, eliminating the possibility of long-promised polls until the second half of the year at the earliest.

Southeast Asian foreign ministers in January told the junta to prioritise a ceasefire in its civil war over fresh elections during a meeting in Malaysia.

Min Aung Hlaing told his ruling military council in January that ‘peace and stability is still needed’ before the state of emergency can be lifted and polls held.

The United States has said any elections under the junta would be a ‘sham’, while analysts say polls would be targeted by the military’s opponents and spark further bloodshed.

A joint statement by election experts published on the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance’s website in February said they ‘unequivocally reject’ plans by Myanmar’s junta to hold an election in 2025.

More than 6,300 civilians have been killed since the coup, and more than 28,000 arrested, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners monitoring group.

The conflict has forced more than 3.5 million people to flee their homes, while an estimated 19.9 million people—or more than a third of Myanmar’s population—will need humanitarian aid in 2025, according to the UN.​