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[🇧🇩] Insurgencies in Myanmar. Implications for Bangladesh

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Myanmar briefs neighbours on election plans
Agence France-Presse . Bangkok, Thailand 21 December, 2024, 04:58

Myanmar’s junta-appointed foreign minister briefed officials from five neighbouring countries on the military’s repeatedly delayed plans to hold elections, Thailand’s foreign minister said on Thursday.

The Myanmar military seized power in 2021, making unsubstantiated claims of massive electoral fraud in 2020 polls won resoundingly by the Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy.

It has since unleashed a bloody crackdown on dissent and as fighting ravages swathes of the country has repeatedly delayed plans for fresh polls that critics say will be neither free nor fair.

Junta-appointed foreign minister Than Swe met diplomats from China, India, Bangladesh, Laos and Thailand for an ‘informal consultation’, Thai foreign ministry spokesperson Nikorndej Balankura told reporters.

Myanmar ‘outlined very broadly that progress is being made towards an election’ in 2025, he said, adding that no details, including an exact date, were discussed.

The talks in Bangkok were hosted by Thai foreign minister Maris Sangiampongsa and come a day ahead of informal talks on Myanmar hosted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

ASEAN, of which Myanmar is a member, has made little progress towards resolving the Myanmar crisis.

Thailand, which regularly hosts thousands of people fleeing the conflict, has held its own bilateral talks with Myanmar’s junta leaders.

In 2023 its then foreign minister also said he had met briefly with Suu Kyi, who has been in military custody since the coup.

The junta has several times pushed back a timetable for fresh polls as it struggles to crush widespread opposition to its rule from ethnic rebel groups and pro-democracy ‘People’s Defence Forces.

In 2022, the junta-stacked election commission announced that Suu Kyi’s NLD would be dissolved for failing to re-register under a tough new military-drafted electoral law.

China, the junta’s most important ally, has grown increasingly alarmed at the conflict on its doorstep and in October called for a ‘reconciliation led by all people of Myanmar’.

Earlier this year, its foreign minister said Beijing backed the junta’s plans for polls.

The United States has said any elections under the junta would be a ‘sham’, while analysts say polls would be targeted by the military's opponents and spark further bloodshed.​
 

Dhaka wants to see democracy in Myanmar
Both Bangladesh and India also talked about extending support to the South Asian neighbouring country in this regard, if necessary
Diplomatic Correspondent
Dhaka
Updated: 20 Dec 2024, 16: 03


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This handout picture taken and released by Thailand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs on 19 December 2024 shows (L-R) Foreign Secretary of the Republic of India Vikram Misri, Foreign Affairs Minister of Bangladesh Md. Touhid Hossain, Deputy Prime Minister and Union Minister for Foreign Affairs of Myanmar Than Swe, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Thailand Maris Sangiampongsa, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Lao PDR Thongsavanh Phomvihane and Vice Foreign Minister of China Sun Weidong posing for a group photo during a six-nation regional meeting in Bangkok AFP

The Rohingya people who have taken shelter in Bangladesh want a conducive environment in Rakhine state in Myanmar so that they could return to their homeland with safety and dignity. That is why Bangladesh wants to see a sustainable peace, stability and democracy in the neighbouring country.

Dhaka also has called for a roadmap to ensure repatriation of Rohingya people in Rakhine.

Bangladesh foreign adviser Md Touhid Hossain highlighted the position of Bangladesh on the future of Myanmar and Rohingya repatriation at an informal meeting in Bangkok of Thailand on Thursday.

Diplomatic sources from Bangkok and Dhaka informed Prothom Alo that alongside Bangladesh, India also put emphasis on democratic transition of Myanmar in the meeting that was organised at the initiative of Thailand foreign minister Maris Sangiampongsa.

Both Bangladesh and India also talked about extending support to the South Asian neighbouring country in this regard, if necessary.

Thailand also discussed urging all sides of Myanmar to return to democracy through holding elections.

Myanmar deputy prime minister and foreign minister Than Swe mentioned about organising elections by 2025 by the military government led by senior General Min Aung Hlaing. He, however, did not say anything about the roadmap.

Than Swe stated in the meeting that the incumbent Myanmar government is hopeful of holding an election next year. But he expressed doubts whether the election could be organised with everyone’s participation or not.

Bangladesh, India, Thailand and Laos joined the discussion, organised by Thailand, on the ensuing law and order situation in Myanmar and the country’s future.

Before joining the six-nation discussion, foreign adviser Touhid Hossain attended a bilateral meeting with Myanmar foreign minister Than Swe.

A source from Bangkok informed Prothom Alo that the one-hour-long meeting discussed various bilateral issues, including Rohingya repatriation, where both sides agreed to take the relationship forward.

They also agreed to work together in the light of the memorandum of understanding the two countries signed in November 2017 to resolve the Rohingya crisis. During the discussion, the Myanmar foreign minister reiterated his country’s goodwill to resolve the crisis surrounding Rohingya repatriation.

At that time, Touhid Hossain told him that the precondition for repatriation of Rohingya is to create a conducive environment in the Rakhine state. Myanmar has to create such an environment in the state so that the Rohingya people return to their homeland voluntarily. But currently the environment there is not conducive as the Arakan Army has taken control there. That is why the first task of the Myanmar government is to make Rakhine safe.

Six countries discussion

Speaking at the six-country meeting, Touhid Hossain said that another 60,000 Rohingya people crossed the border into Bangladesh in the last few months. That means, the Rohingya situation is worrying.

He also expressed grave concerns about the ensuing armed violence along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border and various types of crimes regarding arms and drugs. He reiterated the call for a roadmap to Rohingya repatriation to ensure stability in the Rakhine state.

Touhid requested the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and other major players of the region to play more active roles for peace, security and democracy in Myanmar. He also extended help from the Bangladesh side for economic reconstitution of Rakhine state and in other necessary spheres.

Touhid Hossain once again put emphasis on the three-point proposals chief adviser Dr Muhammad Yunus made in his address to the UN General Assembly in September this year.

He also stressed on sharing intelligence information among the law enforcement agencies and border guards to curb transborder crimes.

In the meeting, Myanmar foreign minister Than Swe mentioned about his government’s attempt to create a conducive environment for elections in the country in 2025.

Alleging that transborder criminals have been stoking armed violence in his country, Swe mentioned Myanmar government’s initiatives to bring such crimes under control.

He also spoke about his government’s initiatives to repatriate the Rohingya people.

China’s deputy minister for foreign affairs and India’s foreign secretary reasserted their support to the peace initiatives taken by Myanmar for regional security and development.

Both the countries informed the meeting about their initiatives for dialogues among various stakeholders of Myanmar and said they have been helping find a common ground for an inclusive and stable system in the country.

Thailand's foreign minister emphasised forming an informal forum like this discussion.​
 

Rebels ‘capture junta western command in Rakhine state’

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A Myanmar ethnic rebel group has captured a military regional command in Rakhine state, it said, in what would be a major blow to the junta.

The Arakan Army (AA) had "completely captured" the western regional command at Ann on Friday after weeks of fighting, the group said in a statement on its Telegram channel.

Ann would be the second regional military command to fall to ethnic rebels in five months, and a huge blow to the military.

Myanmar's military has 14 regional commands across the country with many of them currently fighting established ethnic rebel groups or newer "People's Defence Forces" that have sprung up to battle the military's 2021 coup.

Fighting has rocked Rakhine state since the AA attacked security forces in November last year, ending a ceasefire that had largely held since the putsch.

AA fighters have seized swathes of territory in the state that is home to China and India-backed port projects and all but cut off state capital Sittwe.

The AA posted photos of a man whom it said was the Ann deputy regional commander, in the custody of its fighters.

AFP was unable to confirm that information and has contacted the AA's spokesman for comment.

AFP was unable to reach people on the ground around Ann where internet and phone services are patchy.

In decades of on-off fighting since independence from Britain in 1948 the military had never lost a regional military command until last August, when the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) captured the northeastern command in Lashio in Shan state.

Myanmar's borderlands are home to myriad ethnic armed groups who have battled the military since independence for autonomy and control of lucrative resources.

Last month the UN warned Rakhine state was heading towards famine, as ongoing clashes squeeze commerce and agricultural production.

"Rakhine's economy has stopped functioning," the report from the UN Development Programme said, projecting "famine conditions by mid-2025" if current levels of food insecurity were left unaddressed.​
 

Conflict in Rakhine: Dhaka cannot engage with non-state actors
Says Touhid

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Photo: AFP

Bangladesh has called on Myanmar to address the ongoing crisis in the Rakhine state and its borders, stressing that it cannot engage in negotiations with non-state actors, such as the Arakan Army.

Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain conveyed this message to Myanmar during an informal consultation held on Thursday in Thailand.

During the meeting, Touhid also emphasised that peace and stability in the region would remain elusive without a resolution to the Rohingya crisis.

Senior representatives from Bangladesh, Myanmar, India, China, Laos, and other nations attended the consultation focused on Myanmar.

"I informed Myanmar that the border is no longer under your control. Non-state actors like the Arakan Army are controlling it. As a state, we cannot engage with them. Myanmar must find a way to resolve the issues related to the border and Rakhine," Touhid yesterday told reporters in the capital, sharing details of his discussions at the consultation.

In reply, Myanmar said they are trying to regain control of the border.

Touhid said that the meeting focused on a few key issues regarding Myanmar, including the border, drug trafficking, arms smuggling, human trafficking, and its political future.

On Myanmar's political future, Touhid noted that all participants expressed support for its efforts to resolve internal issues and move forward.

"Everyone said they would support Myanmar, and if they choose a federal structure, we will not intervene. But we want a resolution," Touhid said.

The meeting on Thursday was chaired by Thailand's Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsar. The attendees included Myanmar's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister U Than Swe, Laos's Foreign Minister Saleumxay Kommasith, India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, and China's Deputy Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu.

Meanwhile, speaking as the chief guest at an international seminar in Dhaka yesterday, the foreign adviser said peace in Myanmar is crucial to unlocking the full potential of the Bay of Bengal and its surrounding countries and that peace cannot be achieved without solving the Rohingya crisis.

"Peace and order will not be possible in Myanmar, and consequently in the region, unless the safe and secure return of Rohingyas to their homes," he said at the seminar titled "Reconnecting the Bay of Bengal Region: Exploring the Convergence of Interest," at the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS) in the capital.

Noting that a civil war situation is currently prevailing in Myanmar, he said at least 1.2 million Rohingyas, who have fled the Rakhine state facing extreme atrocities, have fled to Bangladesh in the last seven years.

"There has been no progress in their repatriation and the situation is further complicated by a non-state actor, the Arakan Army, taking control of the entire border with Bangladesh," he said.

"It is on Myanmar and the regional powers to create a congenial atmosphere for their return," said the foreign adviser.

Supported by the Embassy of Japan, the BIISS, in collaboration with the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO), hosted the international seminar.

He said that the Bay of Bengal has emerged as a focal point of geopolitical and economic activity with its vast natural resources, crucial shipping routes, and potential for economic integration.

Touhid said the countries surrounding the Bay and other stakeholders should align their diverse interests, "ensuring that the Bay of Bengal becomes a region of collaboration rather than conflict; a hub of connectivity rather than contention".

He said Bangladesh is uniquely poised to become a regional transit hub and a key player in the global value chain with its strategic location and growing industrial base.

"In order to unlock these possibilities, Bangladesh must address pressing challenges and seize emerging opportunities," the adviser said.

He acknowledged that initiatives like the "Bay of Bengal Industrial Value Chain," championed by Japan, provide a blueprint for achieving this transformation by leveraging investment, technology, and labour.

The adviser also lauded Japan's overall contribution to Bangladesh's development.

Japanese Ambassador to Bangladesh Iwama Kiminori, BIISS Chairman Gousal Azam Sarkar and Director General Major General Iftekhar Anis, among others, spoke at the event.

Responding to a question about a potential new influx of Rohingyas, Touhid said, though the government is concerned, he does not believe such an event is on the cards.​
 

Bangladesh presses Myanmar to resolve border issue
Published :
Dec 22, 2024 17:20
Updated :
Dec 22, 2024 17:20

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Bangladesh has called on Myanmar to address the ongoing border and Rakhine issues, stressing that it cannot engage in negotiations with non-state actors, such as the Arakan Army, over control of the border.

Bangladesh’s Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain conveyed this message to Myanmar during an informal consultation held on Thursday in Thailand.

Senior representatives from Bangladesh, Myanmar, India, China, Laos, and other nations attended the consultation, BSS reports.

"I informed Myanmar that the border is no longer under your control. It is now controlled by non-state actors like the Arakan Army. As a state, we cannot engage with them. Myanmar must find a way to resolve the issues related to the border and Rakhine," Hossain told reporters, sharing details of his discussions at the informal consultation.

He said, in reply, Myanmar informed him that they are trying to take over control of the border to resolve the issue.

Hossain reaffirmed Bangladesh’s policy of not allowing any further Rohingya refugees to enter the country.

However, he acknowledged that, under certain circumstances, Bangladesh had been compelled to accept 60,000 Rohingyas through various unofficial routes.

He also highlighted widespread corruption at the border, which facilitates the entry of Rohingyas.

"They are not entering through a single route; they are coming through multiple routes, making it very difficult to stop," Hossain said.

Responding to a question about a potential new influx of Rohingyas, Hossain dismissed these fears.

"I do not believe another influx will occur, although many are concerned. We too share these concerns, but we must take measures to prevent it, working with the international community," he said.

The meeting in Thailand on Thursday was chaired by Thailand's Foreign Minister, Maris Sangiampongsar, and included Myanmar's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister U Than Swe, Laos's Foreign Minister Saleumxay Kommasith, India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, and China's Deputy Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu.

Bangladesh was represented by Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain.

Hossain mentioned that the meeting focused on three main issues: the border, drug trafficking, arms smuggling, human trafficking, and Myanmar’s political future.

During the meeting, Hossain emphasised that peace and stability in the region would remain elusive without a resolution to the Rohingya crisis.

"Criminals are present on both sides of the border and in the camps, and I highlighted these concerns," he added.

On Myanmar's political future, Hossain noted that all participants expressed support for Myanmar’s efforts to resolve its internal issues and move forward.

“Everyone said they would support Myanmar, and if they choose a federal structure, we will not intervene. But we want a resolution," Hossain said.

Regarding border issues, the adviser explained that the discussions mainly focused on the northeastern and southern borders, with particular attention given to the western border, where Bangladesh has strategic interests.

Concerns were also raised about the rise of scam centres engaged in internet crimes, which have been troubling Myanmar, along with ongoing issues such as drug trafficking and border-related criminal activities.

Representatives from other countries urged Myanmar to take appropriate measures to address these concerns.​
 

Bangladesh must stay vigilant amid growing Myanmar crisis
The situation is becoming increasingly complex

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VISUAL: STAR

The ongoing conflict in Myanmar between the military junta, the Arakan Army, and other rebel groups has thrown up yet another curveball for Bangladesh. The Arakan Army recently claimed to have captured the last Myanmar army outpost in the strategic western town of Maungdaw, thereby gaining full control of the 271-kilometre-long border with Bangladesh. In light of this development, Bangladesh has urged Myanmar to address the ongoing crisis in Rakhine State and along its borders, emphasising that it cannot negotiate with non-state actors like the Arakan Army.

Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain conveyed this message to Myanmar during an informal consultation held in Thailand on December 19. He also stressed that peace and stability in the region would remain unattainable without resolving the Rohingya crisis, which necessitates their safe and secure repatriation to Myanmar. According to the foreign adviser, at least 1.2 million Rohingyas have fled to Bangladesh over the past seven years due to Myanmar's civil war and the persecution of Rohingyas. Moreover, Bangladesh recently had to accept over 60,000 additional Rohingyas through various unofficial channels, despite its decision to prohibit new arrivals. This has been attributed to corruption at the border, which has left the Bangladesh government with limited options.

Bangladesh recently had to accept over 60,000 additional Rohingyas through various unofficial channels, despite its decision to prohibit new arrivals. This has been attributed to corruption at the border, which has left the Bangladesh government with limited options.

Clearly, the situation is becoming increasingly complex and concerning for Bangladesh. Corruption along the border, facilitating the influx of Rohingyas and potentially fuelling drug, weapon, and human trafficking, poses a growing security threat. Therefore, it is imperative for the government to address these issues urgently before they escalate further. Moreover, given the current border situation, progress in the Rohingya repatriation process has completely stalled. But how long can Bangladesh continue to provide shelter to them, especially with foreign aid to support Rohingyas steadily dwindling in recent years? The economic, environmental, and social burdens Bangladesh is shouldering to accommodate the Rohingyas are becoming more unsustainable by the day. The potential for further destabilisation, both for Bangladesh and the broader region, continues to grow because of the conflict.

The recent escalation of violence in Rakhine has again raised fears of a revival of organised violence against members of the Muslim Rohingya minority community, similar to that which drove huge numbers of them to flee to Bangladesh in 2017. Under these circumstances, Bangladesh must be extra vigilant about securing its border with Myanmar. At the same time, with the aid of the international community, the government should persuade the Myanmar junta and the various rebel factions to reach a peaceful resolution through dialogue for the sake of restoring regional stability.​
 

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