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[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy

[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy
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FINANCIAL SECTOR: Avoiding sanctions trap
by Mohammad Zonaed Emran 01 March, 2025, 00:00

SANCTIONS have become a pressing issue in recent times, gaining renewed attention following the re-election of Donald Trump as president of the United States. Many countries and business entities fear that his administration may impose stringent sanctions on political grounds, further weaponising economic restrictions to achieve foreign policy objectives. Sanctions are frequently used as a tool to exert pressure, serving economic and security goals without resorting to military intervention.

The impact of sanctions has been evident in recent years. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the United States imposed a series of measures targeting Russian individuals, entities, ports and ships. These included sectoral sanctions, asset freezes and restrictions on financial transactions. The exclusion of seven major Russian banks from the SWIFT system — a crucial network for international banking — further crippled the Russian economy, demonstrating the far-reaching consequences of such actions.

However, it would be naive to assume that only countries embroiled in major geopolitical conflicts face such risks. Bangladesh, despite its status as a developing nation, is not immune. There exists a perception that sanctions from international bodies such as the United Nations or the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control are unlikely to directly affect Bangladesh. Yet history tells a different story.

In 2021, the administration of outgoing US president Joe Biden imposed sanctions on Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion and six high-ranking law enforcement officials, citing human rights violations, including extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances. The sanctions, imposed under the Magnitsky Act, placed the RAB and these individuals on the Specially Designated Nationals and blocked persons list. This move strained relations between Bangladesh and the United States, with the Bangladeshi government making repeated but unsuccessful attempts to have the sanctions lifted. Furthermore, before the last general election, the US government imposed travel bans on individuals accused of undermining the democratic process — an implicit sanction designed to curb election interference.

The sanctions against the RAB had a significant impact, leading to a notable reduction in human rights abuses and extrajudicial killings. Over time, the force’s authority diminished, underscoring the effectiveness of targeted sanctions in compelling behavioural change. However, Bangladesh’s vulnerability to sanctions extends beyond law enforcement. The country’s banking sector remains particularly exposed, especially if financial institutions fail to maintain stringent compliance with international sanctions regulations. Ensuring adherence to global financial norms is therefore critical to mitigating risks.

Sanctions, at their core, are an extension of foreign policy, employed to coerce targeted nations, entities, or individuals into altering their behaviour. They are often viewed as an alternative to war, offering a means of conflict resolution without direct military engagement. Their objectives range from promoting peace and preventing human rights abuses to discouraging illegal activities and exerting economic pressure.

Sanctions vary in nature, scope and purpose. Economic sanctions target a country’s financial and trade activities through restrictions such as trade bans, asset freezes and exclusion from global banking networks. Military sanctions impose arms embargoes and prohibit military aid. Travel sanctions restrict movement by imposing visa bans. Sectoral sanctions focus on specific industries, such as energy or technology, while targeted sanctions home in on individuals, corporations, or organisations. The most severe form, comprehensive sanctions, involves complete trade embargoes, as seen in US sanctions against Cuba and North Korea.

Sanctions can be imposed unilaterally by individual states or multilaterally through organisations like the United Nations or the European Union. International financial institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund may also enforce sanctions to ensure compliance with economic regulations. The targets of these measures are diverse, encompassing governments, individuals, corporations, economic sectors and even terrorist networks.

The consequences for sanctioned entities can be severe. Financial restrictions include asset freezes and blocked access to international banking. Trade limitations can prohibit imports, exports and investments. Travel bans restrict international movement, while blacklisting prevents companies and individuals from conducting business on the global stage. Violations of sanctions can result in criminal prosecution, hefty fines and irreparable reputational damage.

The extraterritorial reach of US sanctions adds another layer of complexity. American regulations often extend beyond its borders, impacting foreign entities conducting transactions with sanctioned individuals or nations. The case of Huawei, which faced restrictions on accessing American technology, illustrates this principle. Similarly, the French bank BNP Paribas was fined $9 billion in 2014 for violating US sanctions by processing transactions linked to Sudan, Iran and Cuba. Such examples highlight how sanctions enforcement transcends national boundaries, compelling international compliance with US policies.

A particularly potent mechanism is secondary sanctions, which target not only primary sanctioned entities but also third parties engaging with them. These measures deter businesses and governments worldwide from interacting with designated targets, effectively enforcing global compliance. The penalties for violating sanctions are steep, with financial fines reaching millions of dollars, asset seizures, restricted access to banking systems, export bans and even criminal prosecution.

Given the intricate nature of sanctions and their far-reaching implications, Bangladeshi financial institutions must take proactive steps to ensure compliance. Establishing a robust compliance framework is essential. Banks must implement rigorous customer due diligence procedures, verifying identities through know your customer protocols and screening transactions against global sanctions lists, including those maintained by Office of Foreign Assets Control, the United Nations and the European Union.

Advanced transaction monitoring systems should be in place to flag high-risk activities, such as trade with sanctioned countries or entities. Automated screening of financial messages, such as SWIFT transactions, can help identify suspicious dealings. Additionally, financial institutions must stay abreast of evolving sanctions regulations, subscribing to updates from international regulatory bodies and integrating policy changes into their compliance strategies.

Strengthening correspondent banking relationships is also crucial. Bangladeshi banks must collaborate with reputable global partners that maintain strict compliance with international financial laws. Avoiding transactions linked to sanctioned entities, particularly in high-risk jurisdictions like Iran or North Korea, is paramount. Furthermore, financial institutions must provide ongoing staff training to enhance awareness of sanctions risks, ensuring employees can identify red flags and respond appropriately.

Beyond the banking sector, the broader business community in Bangladesh must also remain vigilant. Companies engaged in international trade should establish internal compliance mechanisms, ensuring that suppliers, customers and business partners are not linked to sanctioned entities. Legal teams must conduct due diligence on contracts and transactions to avoid inadvertent violations that could lead to punitive measures.

By adopting these measures, Bangladeshi banks and businesses can safeguard their operations against sanctions-related vulnerabilities, maintain their standing in the global financial system, and uphold international regulatory standards. The evolving nature of sanctions underscores the importance of vigilance — compliance is not just a legal necessity but a strategic imperative for the country’s financial stability and international credibility.

Mohammad Zonaed Emran is a certified global sanction specialist.​
 
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Hundred economic zones scaled down to five priority EZs
FE REPORT
Published :
Mar 01, 2025 00:30
Updated :
Mar 01, 2025 00:30

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Bangladesh scales back its big-dream plan to establish 100 economic zones across the country by 2030 and the current government prioritizes five full-blown EZs to deliver the desired goods.

It now focuses on select few zones "to maximize the attraction of foreign investment and impact on the country's economy", according to a top government official.

Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority (BEZA) planned to create 100 special economic zones across the country to promote economic growth and employment by 2030, according to a report published by fdi intelligence in its February-March issue.

Once completed, these EZs were envisaged to create 10 million jobs and provide a manufacturing base for US$40 billion worth of exports.

The plan was announced in 2010 by the ousted Awami League government soon after assuming power in 2009. But the reality was that only a small portion of the plan has been implemented.

Executive chairman of BEZA Ashik Chowdhury says that it will prioritize five economic zones to ensure they reach these goals.

The select five are National Special Economic Zone in Chattogram, Srihatta Economic Zone in Sylhet, Japanese Economic Zone in Narayanganj, Maheshkhali Economic Zone in Cox's Bazar and Jamalpur Economic Zone in Jamapur.

All are under development.

"Our commitment is to ensure that these zones are equipped with the necessary infrastructure and utility services," says Mr. Chowdhury.

He says water, electricity, gas, and road connectivity of the five zones will be made within next two years.

However, the Mirsharai economic zone or national special economic zone has already developed and there are many industrial units being built. It is built over 33,800 acres encompassing Mirsharaui and Sitakunda of Chattogram and Sonagazi of Feni. Trial production began there at several factories in the first half of 2022.

By September 2023, five factories had been in commercial production.

The BEZA was created under the Prime Minister's Office in 2010. The initial objective was to develop 100 EZs both at public and private initiatives.

The incentives structure for investment includes exemption of taxes and customs/excise duties, non-fiscal incentives, and issuance of work permits along with recommendation for residency or citizenship and no FDI ceiling.

After promulgation of the BEZA act in 2010, the establishment of export-processing zones or EPZs was discontinued . Currently Bangladesh has eight EPZs.​
 
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What does high default loan mean for the economy?

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At the end of 2024, one-fifth of the total loans in the banking sector turned into bad loans, mainly because the true extent of fund embezzlement by willful defaulters is now coming to light.

In actual terms, defaulted loans stood at Tk 3,45,765 crore—the highest on record. However, considering distressed assets—including written-off loans, rescheduled loans, and loans tied up in the Money Loan Court—the banking sector's situation is even more alarming, as distressed assets are almost double the amount of bad loans.

It is now evident who is responsible for draining funds from banks and pushing the sector into distress. Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur has repeatedly said that some politically influential individuals took the funds and laundered them abroad.

In some cases, loans turned bad due to business struggles amid global economic pressure from the Russia-Ukraine war. Banks can absorb such shocks through their own financial strength.

However, it becomes difficult to withstand the surge in bad loans caused by willful defaulters, especially when they operate under political protection.

Who pays the price?

Ultimately, innocent depositors, honest borrowers, and minority shareholders bear the brunt of bad loans.

If the central bank prints money to keep struggling banks afloat or if the government provides budgetary support to state-run banks, taxpayers and the general public suffer.

Before assessing how the burden is distributed, it is crucial to compare Bangladesh's bad loan scenario with that of other countries.

In India, the proportion of bad loans to total loans dropped to 2.5 percent at the end of September 2024, according to the Reserve Bank of India.

The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was below 5 percent in Vietnam, 8.4 percent in Pakistan, and 3.7 percent in Nepal. Even in crisis-ridden Sri Lanka, the NPL ratio was 12.8 percent.

War-torn Ukraine recorded a 30 percent NPL ratio, while Ghana's stood above 24 percent—both higher than Bangladesh's.

How do rising bad loans impact the economy?

When NPLs increase, banks must keep higher provisions, which directly hit their profitability. Lower profits limit a bank's ability to pay dividends to shareholders.

High NPLs also reduce banks' interest income. To compensate for the loss and continue paying depositors, banks either raise lending rates or lower deposit rates—both of which negatively impact businesses and savers.

While all stakeholders suffer, willful defaulters continue to benefit by siphoning off money without consequences.

The crisis does not end there. Recently, the central bank provided around Tk 22,000 crore in liquidity support to troubled banks to ensure they could meet withdrawal demands.

Such measures come at a significant economic cost, particularly by fueling inflation. Economists strongly criticise these fundings as they have a cascading effect on inflation, but the central bank had little choice to prevent panic in the banking sector.

To keep state-run banks afloat, the government has injected hundreds of crores of taka through the national budget, effectively using taxpayers' money to cover default loans. These funds could have been directed toward education, healthcare, or other essential sectors.

A shrinking credit market


High NPLs also make banks more cautious in lending, limiting access to credit for businesses and individuals. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which depend heavily on bank loans, are the worst affected, slowing overall economic growth.

Already, banks are shifting their focus to treasury bonds, as these provide guaranteed returns without the risk of defaults.

Foreign investors and credit rating agencies see high NPL ratios as a sign of systemic risk, discouraging foreign investment and increasing borrowing costs for the country.

"When defaulted loans rise, banks must keep higher provisions, reducing their capacity to issue new loans," said Mustafa K Mujeri, executive director of the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development.

For instance, a bank has Tk 100 in assets. It gave a loan of Tk 20, which became sour. So it now has Tk 20 worth of defaulted loans, for which it must set aside Tk 20 as provisions. So the bank's capacity for fresh lending comes down to only Tk 60 now.

Moreover, high NPLs incentivise good borrowers to delay repayments, further weakening the financial sector. "With rising bad loans, banks are becoming financially weaker, which ultimately shrinks their contribution to the economy," Mujeri added.

A fragile financial sector with limited credit availability hinders a country's economic development. To address this crisis, the government must take strong measures to control bad loans.

"There should be a concerted effort to prevent new default loans and recover existing ones," Mujeri said.

The way forward

To improve the situation, banks must adopt better governance, enforce legal actions against defaulters, enhance risk management, and strengthen regulatory oversight.

Most importantly, eliminating political influence in the banking sector is crucial for restoring discipline and stability.​
 
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Bangladesh’s bad loan saga

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Non-performing loans (NPLs) in Bangladesh soared by Tk 1.34 lakh crore in the second half of 2024, reaching Tk 3.45 lakh crore by December.

Governor Ahsan Mansur mentioned that after the fall of the Awami League government in August, previously concealed defaulted loans began to come to light.

The current volume of defaulted loans accounts for 20.2% of the banking sector's total loans. There is every hunch that the exact figure may be much higher if we apply qualitative judgement here.

NPLs stood at Tk 2.11 lakh crore at the end of June 2024, accounting for 12.56% of total loans, when the Awami League was in power. According to Bangladesh Bank (BB) data, in December 2023, NPLs stood at Tk 1.45 lakh crore, accounting for 9% of the total bank loans at that time.

The surge in bad loans follows the end of Sheikh Hasina's 15-year-plus rule that allowed banks to conceal the real picture of bad loans through various "window dressing" efforts.

The central bank governor also said the rise in NPLs is largely due to the end of a long-standing lack of transparency in reporting bad loans and recent changes in loan classification policies.

So what is changing now? Previously, loans were classified as overdue after 270 days, but the timeframe has now been reduced to 180 days. Furthermore, starting from April 2025, loans will be classified as non-performing within just 90 days.

As of December 2024, at least 42% of total loans in state-owned banks were classified as non-performing, while 15% of total loans in private banks were non-performing, said the governor, warning that with this new strict policy, NPLs are expected to rise even further in the coming months.

Early February, the BB announced its monetary policy for the January-June period of the ongoing fiscal year. According to its monetary policy statement, NPLs in the banking sector are expected to exceed 30% by June this year, if not more.

Factors contributing to the rise in NPLs include systemic weaknesses, regulatory gaps, and exploitative practices such as money laundering and illicit capital flight, the statement stated.

In the last six months, both new loan disbursement and loan renewals have decreased in banks, while the amount of defaulted loans has increased. Additionally, many loans have defaulted due to the reduction in the overdue period for term loans.

Analysts also attribute the NPL increase to the reinstatement of international standards for defining NPLs. These stringent measures, which were suspended during the pandemic in 2020, have provided a more accurate, though sobering, assessment of banking health.

The increase in default loans is due to several factors. One key reason is that banks previously classified loans as regular for many influential customers whose loans were actually in default. Now, those loans are being classified as defaulted again.

Some loans have become defaulted because the central bank has aligned its loan classification process with international standards.

It is also true that many borrowers couldn't repay their loans due to student protests and internet outages in July and August last year. The SME sector has been severely affected, leading many customers to default. Additionally, many plants have struggled to operate properly due to insufficient gas and electricity supply. Prolonged unrest in RMG belts could be another reason. Besides, massive depreciation of taka against the greenback also impacted the importing clients very badly.

However, there is no denying that the true extent of defaulted loans must be revealed to gain proper visibility. Only then can appropriate reform measures be taken.

The writer is the chairman of Financial Excellence Limited​
 
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Enhancing transparency in public procurement
Atiqul Kabir Tuhin
Published :
Mar 01, 2025 22:04
Updated :
Mar 01, 2025 22:04

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A sound public procurement system that prevents corruption through enhanced transparency and accountability, if ever implemented substantively and meaningfully, can bring multifarious benefits. It can remedy the problem of corruption in the public procurement process. It can maximise value for taxpayers' money by ensuring that the government obtains necessary goods and services and the people are benefitted. It can also stimulate the economy and build overall confidence in government. But even after a decade of the introduction of an Electronic Government Procurement (e-GP), the public procurement process remains riddled with corruption.

A recent study of Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB) has shed light on the troubling state of government procurement in the country. It reveals that the sector is held hostage to monopolistic contractors who dominate the system through collusion, political influence, and market capture. The study shows that in the Ministry of Housing and Public Works, the top 5 per cent of contractors control nearly 75 per cent of the total project value. In the Road Transport and Highways sector, a mere 11 per cent of contractors control a staggering 93.55 per cent of the total project value. Such monopolistic practices not only reduce competition but also inflate costs, compromise project quality, and limit opportunities for new contractors.

As part of the ongoing reform initiative of the public procurement system, the government is reportedly contemplating to abolish the 10 per cent bidding cap. This cap, which disqualifies any bid that exceeds or falls below the quoted price by more than 10 per cent, was initially introduced to prevent contractors from submitting abnormally low bids to secure contracts. This measure, however, has created new avenues for corruption. Contractors have exploited this cap by submitting bids exactly 10 per cent below the quoted price, which indicates collusion and potential information leakage. The exact quoted price is supposed to remain confidential, but some officials disclose this information in exchange for bribes, allowing certain contractors to gain an unfair advantage. Furthermore, when multiple contractors submit identical bids, the contract is awarded through a 300-mark metrics, which predominantly favours those who have won previous contracts. Thus the bidding process systematically prevents the entry of new bidders, while certain parties keep getting multiple projects. Abolishment of the 10 per cent bidding cap is, therefore, could be a welcome move to make public tendering process more competitive.

Then again, removal of the 10 per cent cap raises concern about the resurgence of the old problem of contractors colluding to propose abnormally low prices. The authorities will have to devise a strategy to deal with the abnormally low bids as well, because entertaining such bids may lead to substandard work. In this regard, the Korean model, which involves averaging the prices of all submitted bids and awarding the contract to the bidder whose price is closest to the average, may offer a viable solution. This could be a potential way to mitigate the risks of both underbidding and overpricing.

Overall, there is a need for systematic reform and targeted measures at every stage of the supply chain. Corruption in the procurement process often starts with the deliberate inclusion of biased specifications that favour specific suppliers. Biased conditions in the tender document or vague specifications often undermine fair competition. Therefore, it is crucial to ensure that tender specifications are reviewed and validated by independent experts. Additionally, drafting tender conditions and technical specifications in a clear, comprehensible manner and publishing all relevant information on digital platforms can encourage broad participation. However, reforms in selection processes alone will not be enough. Rigorous supervision and monitoring of project execution are crucial to ensuring accountability and adherence to standards.

Bangladesh spends approximately US$30 billion annually on public procurement, constituting around 45 per cent of the national budget and 85 per cent of the Annual Development Programme (ADP). Given the magnitude of this expenditure, a transparent and accountable procurement system is crucial for effective utilisation of government funds. Otherwise, corruption in the procurement process will continue to drain the public exchequer.​
 
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