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[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy

[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy
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Revenue reform, tax digitisation, trade-clearance systems start paying

Doulot Akter Mala
Published :
Aug 09, 2025 23:49
Updated :
Aug 09, 2025 23:49

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Three major steps on digitisation of the tax administration in last one year of the interim government has already started paying off through faster trade documentation and leak-plugged tax mobilisation, officials claim.

The breakthroughs are taking place by way of restoring taxpayer confidence in virtual operations instead of the loopholes-ridden manual processing moving from table to table in offices.

The digitising of revenue system has been minimizing the hassles in tax payment and expediting the release of goods from customs points.

The initiatives, if sustained, would plug the scope of underhand dealings between taxmen and taxpayers and cut time of cargo release at customs points.

The digitising includes mandatory online tax-return submission by individual taxpayers, suspending manual selection of taxpayers' files for audit, introducing mandatory receipt of import certificate, licences and permissions under Bangladesh Single Window (BSW) gateway.

Already, online tax-return submission marked nearly three times increase last year, ending June 30, 2025, as going online was mandatory for some professionals, NBR data showed.

From August 4, all individual taxpayers are required to submit tax returns online.

After the formal launch of the BSW, traders have received some 431,169 certificates, licences and permission from the online portal to get their products released from ports.

Suspension of manual selection of tax files for audit is another breakthrough as now only selection of tax files is conducted digitally. "Taxpayers have long faced harassment on audit-selection process as it was a tool of money making by some tax officials, staffers and tax practitioners," says many a sufferer.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) data show 15,494 tax files have been selected for audit following the concept of "tax justice" where only 0.5 per cent of tax returns of each circle have been selected for audit. To improve the audit selection, Risk-based Audit Selection Criteria would be automated soon.

Time and cost of tax payment would gradually come down, encouraging tax payment if the move continued under the next political regime, set to come through the election the current interim government moves to hold next February.

However, officials at field offices felt the need of restoring confidence among the tax officials who are still panicked, shocked and quite in low morale over the government's punitive action against reform protesters.

An unrest in revenue administration sparked in May and June 2025 against an ordinance issued to bifurcate the NBR into revenue administration and implementation.

"Man behind the machine cannot be ignored as system has to be operated and implemented by the officials," says an expert in this field.

Though NBR's revenue mobiisation has marked one of the lowest growth, 2.56 per cent, excepting the year of Covid-19, in the last one decade, both taxmen and businesses believe the situation would improve significantly in the current financial year if the interim government can bring back working spirit of the taxmen.

"The year 2024 cannot be compared to other normal financial years as it has gone through several challenges with its last quarter hit directly in the tax collection," says former chief economist at the World Bank Bangladesh office Dr Zahid Hussain.

"There is no alternative to raising the tax to-GDP-ratio but reform in tax department has not marked any significant progress yet," he told The Financial Express.

On digitisation, he said the efforts had not shown any result earlier as the government made partial digitisation where taxpayers have to visit tax offices at some stage of the process of tax payment and return submission.

The BSRM Group of Companies Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Alihussain Akberali, feels the process of online tax return should be upgraded as it takes quite a long time to fill out the forms with required inputs.

"Income-tax-return system of Singapore could be an example of digitisation where access of all records of an assessee, including bank-account information, property, CDBL, is available for the taxmen. A software should be there to verify what each assessee has furnished in the tax files and highlight gross anomalies, if any, for their investigation," he told the FE.

Talking to the FE on Saturday, NBR chairman Abdur Rahman Khan said the digitisation would pay off gradually as the NBR is now working to ensure integration and interoperability.

On allegations of partial automation, the NBR chief said,"The government's other departments would also require to digitise at the same pace so that taxmen can get all required information provided in the tax returns."

A bunch of further digitisation steps, including bonded-warehouse facility, and simplification of tax clearance for foreign nationals are underway to ease tax payment and compliance process, he informed.​
 
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ECONOMY SAVED FROM COLLAPSE BUT CHALLENGES PERSIST: CPD MEET
Structural ills, slow investment and inflation stymie economic recovery


FE REPORT
Published :
Aug 11, 2025 01:08
Updated :
Aug 11, 2025 01:08

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Bangladesh's economy has avoided a catastrophic collapse over the past year following the interim government's decisive actions, but entrenched structural weaknesses, slow private investment, and persistent inflation impede long-term recovery.

As economists, experts and a top politician made such observations at a high-profile policy dialogue Sunday in Dhaka, the central bank's governor listed improvements in some of the country's macroeconomic parameters and rolled out a slew of reforms coming in the banking sector for an overhaul.

The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) organised the discussion, titled '365 Days of the Interim Government', at Lakeshore Hotel. Labour and Shipping Adviser Brig-General (retd) M Sakhawat Hossain attended the meet as chief guest, while CPD Distinguished Fellow Professor Mustafizur Rahman presided.

Bangladesh Bank Governor Dr Ahsan H Mansur painted a stark picture of the economy that the interim administration inherited. "The banking sector was right at the edge of the cliff when we took office," he said, adding that stabilising the macroeconomic condition and initiating financial-sector reforms became immediate priorities.

While acknowledging that "reforms can't be done in a year", Dr Mansur said progress had been made across multiple areas. The central bank quickly engaged with international financial institutions to preserve lines of credit, pledging to meet all foreign-payment obligations.

"Our situation didn't turn like Sri Lanka or Pakistan's. Remittances and exports provided tremendous support in debt repayment," he told the cutting-edge stocktaking session.

The governor notes that since 14 August 2024, the central bank has not sold a single dollar from reserves -- instead, purchasing at Tk122 despite exchange-rate pressures.

Inflation has fallen below 10 per cent, with expectations that the rate could drop below 5.0 per cent in the future, and the balance of payments (BoP) has returned to surplus, he told the meet about improving macroeconomic parameters.

On the legal front involving banking and finance, Dr Mansur announced amendments to be made to the Bank Companies Act, Money Laundering Act, Deposit Insurance Act, and Money Loan Court Act. The Bangladesh Bank Order is also being updated to strengthen autonomy and accountability.

The central bank is preparing to amend the Bangladesh Bank Resolution Ordinance allowing for acquisition of banks reeling from liquidity crises due to irregularities, with "no more leniency" for misconduct.

Other overhaul initiatives include forming three taskforces for (a) reform in the banking sector and central bank operations, and laundered money recovery (b) establishing a single body for "360-degree monitoring" of all banks (c) promoting QR code payments and credit-card usage (d) expanding nano-loans and student accounts (e) restructuring the revenue department (f) lowering smartphone prices to boost digital-banking coverage.

Reflecting on a turbulent year, Adviser M Sakhawat Hossain admitted the interim government was "bound to disappoint". Speaking as chief guest, he said: "We never said roses would bloom in every home."

Sakhawat, who has served in four ministries in a year under the post-uprising government, recalls the July Uprising as "unprecedented" -- a leaderless revolt where schoolchildren and youths died on the streets. In early August, as chaos gripped the country, he was handed the Home Ministry. "The police were demoralised and refused to work. I had to issue an ultimatum," he said, stressing that political interference must end for reforms to last.

Later, at the Labour Ministry, he faced the Beximco crisis, with 38,000 workers losing jobs. "I could do little, only form a committee," he admitted.

On banking scandals, he revealed one firm took Tk 480 billion from 16 banks and 7 financial institutions, with Tk 240 billion from Janata Bank alone -- without collateral.

"Maybe, we've failed in many areas, but not everywhere," he concludes. "We can leave a framework. Whether it's implemented -- that, I cannot guarantee."

CPD's traffic-light scorecard on government performances gives mixed readings. Presenting CPD's independent review of the government's first year, Executive Director Dr Fahmida Khatun said a "major economic disaster" was averted, with foreign-exchange reserves stabilised, remittances and exports increasing, and the trade balance improving.

However, she warns that these gains did not translate into qualitative improvements in ordinary people's lives. "Inflation may have eased, but many persistent challenges remain."

She highlights low revenue collection, weak institutional capacity, and constrained private-credit flow as serious problems.

The CPD's traffic-light scorecard has assessed 38 economic and social indicators. Nine were rated "green" (positive progress), 18 "yellow" (warning signs), and 11 "red" (areas of grave concern). While inflation control entered the green zone, health, education, revenue mobilisation, and governance were marked red.

Dr Khatun points out that health and education suffer from chronic underinvestment, poor infrastructure, staffing shortages, and rural-urban disparities, warning that "without decisive reform, the next generation will bear the cost".

She also flagged the fragility of the banking sector, citing rising non-performing loans (NPLs) and political influence. While the dissolution and reconstitution of 14 bank boards, adoption of international loan- classification standards, and creation of Tk230 billion in special credit lines were positive, the true scale of bad loans remains unclear.

The think-tank welcomes SME lending requirements, the youth fund, and enhanced migrant-worker financing but deplores a lack of progress in export diversification, post-LDC-graduation tariff reforms, labour-policy updates, and energy security.

It notes that while arrears to Adani have been cleared and capacity payments abolished, uninterrupted and affordable power supply remains a challenge.

Distinguished Fellow of the CDP Professor Mustafizur Rahman said macroeconomic stability had been largely restored from a situation of high inflation, rising unemployment, currency devaluation, declining remittances, and low investment a year ago. However, he strikes a note of caution: "The major test will be to translate this stability into investment and job creation."

He notes that some government targets have been met, others fallen short, and several initiatives were only beginning. "The future political government will have to carry these forward."

Standing Committee member of BNP Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury told the review meet that sustainable reform requires changing the country's political culture. "We must move away from confrontational politics. Democracy means tolerance and respect for others' views."

He praised the National Consensus Commission initiative and calls for deregulation, greater private- sector involvement in economic management, and reduced direct contact between service providers and recipients to curb corruption.

He described Bangladesh's low ranking in foreign direct investment as a barrier to growth, urging a shift toward economic democratisation and faster restoration of democratic governance.

Dr M Tamim, Vice-chancellor of Independent University Bangladesh (IUB), Mahmud Hasan Khan (Babu), President of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), Syed Sultan Uddin Ahmed, Chair, Labour Reform Commission, Mohammed Nurul Amin, Chairman, Global Islami Bank PLC, and Showkat Aziz Russell, President, Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA), among others, spoke at the event.
 
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Reforms to secure economic future
Raihan Riaz 10 August, 2025, 00:00

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SINCE independence in 1971, Bangladesh has gone through several political transitions, many of which involved interim or caretaker governments. During these times, significant institutional reforms have often been introduced that tend to last beyond their immediate terms. The current government, now responsible for leading the country through a critical period, has a unique chance to implement foundational reforms that could transform Bangladesh’s economic and governance systems.

Bangladesh has made significant progress by reducing poverty, expanding education and becoming a manufacturing powerhouse. However, recent shocks such as the Covid outbreak, the war in Ukraine and domestic financial mismanagement have exposed serious vulnerabilities in the economy. Growth has slowed sharply, with revised data showing the economy having under-performed previous estimates. Capital flight, currency depreciation and depleted foreign exchange reserves have strained macroeconomic fundamentals. Inflation, meanwhile, remains persistently high, hitting lower- and middle-income households the hardest.

To its credit, the Bangladesh Bank has taken early steps to stabilise the economy. The steps include implementing a crawling peg exchange rate, tightening monetary policy, aligning banking regulations with international standards, launching an asset quality review and appointing independent boards in troubled banks. The reforms demonstrate intent, but they are only the beginning. For Bangladesh to emerge strong, the country must address core issue of its current crisis: governance.

A governance crisis, more than any external shock, has undermined institutions and diminished public trust. The government has pledged transparency and extensive public consultation and this promise must now translate into concrete action. The core of the governance reform agenda includes three key areas: public finance, the banking system and digital infrastructure.

Tackling public finance

EVERY year, Bangladesh loses about 7 per cent of its gross domestic product, about Tk 3.5 lakh crore, to tax exemption. While targeted tax incentives can help to achieve development goals, many exemptions are given arbitrarily, without proper process or transparency. As a result, the country has one of the highest tax exemption rates in the world, weakening public trust and government revenue.

One important reform is to transfer tax policy authority from the National Board of Revenue. In almost all democratic countries, tax decisions are a legislative task rather than an administrative one. This change would improve accountability in fiscal policy and ensure that exemptions are debated, justified and accessible for public scrutiny.

Equally important is separating tax policy from tax administration. This would clarify the mandate and reduce conflicts of interest within the revenue board. Reform is also urgently needed in the governance of public procurement. Disclosing beneficiaries and ownership of public contracts would help to prevent patronage and waste. Furthermore, operational independence for the Office of the Comptroller and Auditor General would enhance budget oversight.

In the area of social spending, Bangladesh is making progress by developing a unified, dynamic social registry. This will improve how social assistance is targeted, ensuring that support reaches the most vulnerable and is not diverted through political or bureaucratic interference.

Fixing financial system

ONE clear example of governance failure is in the banking industry. Years of lax regulation and political interference have allowed well-connected groups to secure large loans, many of which remain unpaid. This has led to a buildup of non-performing loans that now threatens the stability of the entire financial system.

To address this, the Bangladesh Bank needs to establish a robust bank resolution framework. This will enable the central bank to step in when banks fail, enforce capital adequacy rules and safeguard depositors. Regulatory authorities should also require banks to reveal the ultimate ownership of shareholders and borrowers, along with any links between them. Such transparency is vital for managing systemic risks and preventing insider lending practices.

Encouragingly, Bangladesh is now working with international partners to recover assets illegally transferred abroad. If the efforts continue, they could help to rebuild trust in the banking system. A transparent and well-regulated financial sector would also attract vital investments, reduce credit risk and increase private sector lending, especially to small and medium enterprises, which are essential for job creation.

Harnessing digital dividend

THE third frontier of governance reform lies in the digital realm. Bangladesh, home to one of the world’s largest populations of digital gig workers, is uniquely positioned to lead among developing countries in digital transformation. However, technology alone is not enough. For digital systems to be effective, they must be supported by strong governance, legal protections and user trust.

Reforms are already in progress to enhance the quality and independence of the statistical system, a vital step to ensure that policy decisions rely on accurate and timely data. This should be paired with the development of a digital public infrastructure: an interoperable system that integrates digital identity, mobile payment, data protection and consent-based data sharing. Such a framework would cut down on inefficiencies, prevent fraud in social programmes and make government services more user-friendly. Countries from Estonia to India have demonstrated that transparent digital systems can significantly improve service delivery and empower citizens. Bangladesh must keep pace.

Institutional integrity

BEYOND specific reforms, the success of this agenda relies on the credibility of institutions. Regulatory agencies such as the Anti-Corruption Commission and the judiciary must be empowered to function independently. Rules should apply equally to everyone, regardless of political or economic influence. Public consultation should go beyond rhetoric to become genuine, with meaningful channels for citizens to participate in shaping policies that impact their lives.

At the same time, whistleblowers, journalists and civil society actors must be protected. They are essential for holding institutions accountable and promoting transparency in the public sphere. The rule of law, impartial enforcement and institutional autonomy are not luxuries. They are the foundation of a just society.

A legacy moment

THE interim government is operating within a limited time frame, but within that constraint, there is an opportunity to initiate governance reform that elected governments can build on. Stabilising the economy is urgent. However, restoring trust in institutions is even more critical for long-term resilience. If Bangladesh can strengthen public financial management, reform its banking sector and develop a digital government rooted in trust and transparency, it will not only recover but also lead.

In this rare moment, reform is necessary. The choices made today will shape the future.

Raihan Riaz is a senior research associate (climate change and disaster risk reduction) at Network for Information, Response and Preparedness Activities on Disaster.​
 
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Bangladesh sets $63.5b export target for FY26

FE ONLINE REPORT
Published :
Aug 12, 2025 13:23
Updated :
Aug 12, 2025 13:23

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The government has set a new export target of $63.5 billion for the current financial year (FY26), aiming for 16.5 per cent growth over the income achieved in the previous fiscal year (FY25).

Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin made the announcement at a press conference at his secretariat office on Tuesday, expressing optimism that the target can be achieved by the end of the fiscal year.

Bashir said all existing factors had been taken into account in setting the new export target while unveiling the external trade plan, which has drawn mixed reactions from economists.

The export target for the 2024-25 fiscal year was $57.5 billion, while actual earnings stood at $55 billion.

The commerce adviser reiterated his belief that the new target is attainable.

Commerce Secretary, senior officials, and representatives from trade bodies were also present at the press conference.​
 
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Remittance: What has sparked off this sudden surge?

Shoaib Sammo Siddique
Published: 12 Aug 2025, 17: 02

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At a juncture when the country is sunk in a multi-dimensional crisis, a ray of hope suddenly has pierced through the dark clouds of the economy. The flow of remittances sent home by expatriates has taken on an unexpectedly encouraging trend. In June 2025 alone, expatriates sent a record 2.21 billion US dollars to the country. This is not just a number, but a rekindling of hope in an economy weighed down by crisis.

At the same time, foreign currency reserves have risen to 31.72 billion dollars (although, according to the IMF’s BPM6 calculation method, the figure is 24.99 billion). Over the past 11 months, reserves have increased by more than 11 billion dollars. This flow quietly signals that the wheels of the economy are beginning to turn again.

A troubled economic backdrop

Just a year ago, the situation was entirely different. Reserves had fallen below 20 billion dollars. Severe uncertainty had gripped the market. A dollar shortage, import bottlenecks, weaknesses in the banking sector, and a lack of investor confidence had shaken the very foundations of the economy. Inflation was hovering in double digits. Faced with an import shutdown, many industrial enterprises had suspended production. The government had struggled even to repay foreign loans and import food grains.

Against this backdrop, now that reserves are growing and remittances are setting records, the question arises: is this truly the beginning of a turnaround, or merely a temporary spell of relief?

Remittance surge

An analysis of explanations offered by economists reveals several factors behind the rise:

First, the exchange rate of the dollar has been kept stable for a prolonged period, holding between Tk 112 and Tk 113 in the market. With incentives added to legal channel transfers at rates competitive with hundi (informal remittance channels), expatriates now see the banking system as more profitable.

Second, the government’s anti-hundi operations, the law enforcement agencies’ vigilance against money laundering, and the central bank’s strict monitoring have narrowed the scope of illegal channels. As a result, migrant workers have become more inclined to send money through legal means.

Third, global employment opportunities have increased. Bangladeshi workers are being sent to new destinations such as the Middle East, Malaysia, South Korea, and Romania. With the government ensuring skilled worker training, language education, and contract-based deployment, both the quantity and quality of remittances have improved.

Fourth, certain reforms in the domestic banking system — such as improving transaction facilities in expatriate accounts and introducing remittance-based savings schemes — have encouraged people to use legal channels.

How this achievement spreads

Remittance plays a vital role in the country’s economy. When overseas workers send money to their families, this increases the country’s foreign currency reserves. This helps the government in various ways, such as, covering import costs, repaying loans, importing food and fuel, and ensuring dollar availability in the market.

As a result, banks can open more letters of credit (LCs), especially in the industrial and pharmaceutical sectors, which in turn boosts domestic production and services.

A renewed sense of confidence is growing among businesses because the supply of foreign currency has stabilised due to remittances. With the exchange rate holding steady, the prices of imported goods have come under control. Falling food prices are bringing relief to ordinary people’s daily lives. Reduced inflationary pressure is positively affecting economic stability and growth. Thus, remittances are not just about sending money; they are a major driver of the nation’s economic prosperity.

This new flow of remittances has brought relief and hope to the country’s economy. It must be ensured that this is not a short-lived phenomenon but becomes permanent
What the statistics say
Fiscal Year Total Remittance (Billion USD) June Income (Billion USD) Reserves at end of July (Billion USD)
2021–22 21.03 1.86 39.78
2022–23 21.61 1.97 23.53
2023–24 30.33 2.21 31.72

These figures show an annual growth of about USD 8.7 billion — the highest in the past decade.

Have we overcome the crisis?

Amid so much good news, one question keeps surfacing: Have we truly emerged from the crisis?

The answer is no. This brings us to the most crucial point that despite the rise in remittances, the major obstacles in the banking sector continue to be non-performing loans, defaulted debt and weak governance. Investor confidence has not returned, no new industries are emerging, and private sector growth is stagnant.

By the end of June, non-performing loans had risen to Tk 5,30,428 crore, that is 27.09% of total loans disbursed. In other words, more than a quarter of all loans in the banking sector are already in default.

Experts say the government now needs long-term structural reforms. Without making the banking sector accountable, freeing it from political interference, and ensuring transparency in the tax system, these gains will not be sustainable.

Another major concern is over-dependence on overseas income. If worker deployment slows down or the labour markets in migrant-hosting countries change, remittance flows could drop sharply, potentially triggering a renewed crisis.

Key ways to increase remittances

1. Improving facilities and services for migrant workers

Ensure round-the clock accessible services for expatriates, simplify banking and remittance procedures at any time, and confirm beneficiaries’ bank accounts to guarantee safe delivery of funds. Regulate recruiting agents to cut excessive costs. Introduce a ‘Remittance Card’ with point systems and pension benefits to encourage the use of legal channels.

2. Strengthening banking and mobile financial service (MFS) channels

Expand bank branches and remittance offices to remote areas. Enhance mobile financial services to enable fast and easy digital transfers. Introduce ‘Wage Earners MFS Accounts’ to strengthen oversight and ensure secure transactions for expatriates.

3. Strict law enforcement and awareness to curb hundi

Enforce tough laws and penalties against money laundering and illegal hundi networks. Identify and punish key hundi operators. Revoke licenses and seize funds where necessary. Provide alternative incentives to encourage expatriates to avoid hundi.

4. Country-specific solutions and stronger embassies

Adopt effective solutions tailored to each country’s specific context, as seen in Saudi Arabia and Italy. Increase embassy efficiency and staffing to deliver faster, smoother services. Reduce the difficulties faced by expatriates and expand consular assistance.

5. Adopting an effective incentive policy and boosting motivation

The current incentive rate is 2.5per cent down from 5 per cent previously. If it had been kept at least at 5 per cent, expatriates would have been even more encouraged to send remittances.

6. Ensuring worker safety and welfare

Guarantee the safety and protection of expatriate workers abroad. Strictly monitor the timely payment of wages. Strengthen safety and security measures for female workers in particular.

7. Simplifying and speeding up the remittance process

Make remittance transfers easier through the expansion of “open banking” and internet banking services. Provide transaction facilities in line with workers’ work schedules. Ensure that workers in remote areas have the opportunity to send remittances quickly via mobile or online channels.

8. Economic and political coordination and goodwill

Take firm steps to increase remittance flows through the sincerity of political leadership and coordinated efforts. Strengthen coordination with banks and financial institutions. Implement the government’s long-term structural reforms.

The current interim government’s strong monitoring of various remittance-related issues has brought positive changes to remittance flows. This improved, targeted management has brought a breeze of calm to the national economy, something we must all acknowledge.

This new flow of remittances has brought relief and hope to the country’s economy. It must be ensured that this is not a short-lived phenomenon but becomes permanent. For that, well-thought-out, sustainable, and realistic economic policies and reforms are essential.

If the government builds on this success with structural changes, maintains transparent governance, and prioritizes production-oriented investment, the dream of a new Bangladesh will be achievable. The hard-earned money of expatriates should not merely be savings, it should be a driving force for the economy. Now is the time to move beyond old mistrust and doubt. Through collective effort, we must build a Bangladesh filled with prosperity and confidence.

* Shoaib Sammo Siddique is a banker and economic analyst​
 
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