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[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy

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[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy
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Bangladesh Exports Hit Record $50 Billion in 2024​

2 min read​

Last updated Jan 5, 2025

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Bangladesh’s exports soared to an all-time high of $50 billion in 2024, fueled by a sharp spike in December. This milestone provided much-needed relief for an economy navigating external pressures and challenges. Export growth rose by 8.3% year-on-year, as per data from the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) stated in a report.

The December boom contributed $4.62 billion, an 18% increase compared to the same month in 2023, making it the strongest month since March 2024, when exports crossed $5 billion. The readymade garment (RMG) sector played a pivotal role, earning $19.88 billion in the first half of fiscal 2024-25, a 13.28% year-on-year increase.

Knitwear exports rose 13.01% to $10.83 billion, while woven garments brought in $9.05 billion, up 13.60%. Other sectors also saw remarkable growth: leather goods surged 10.44% to $577.29 million, cotton products grew 16.32% to $319.06 million, and non-leather footwear exports skyrocketed by 39.10% to $273.89 million.

Plastic goods exports increased by 29.72%, while agricultural products and frozen fish grew by 9.31% and 13.01%, respectively. Home textiles also saw a 7.85% uptick, reaching $410.81 million.

However, traditional exports like jute and jute goods faced challenges, with shipments falling 8.11% to $417.39 million during July-December.

Industry leaders, including Shams Mahmud of Shasha Denims Ltd and former BGMEA president Faruque Hassan, expressed optimism for the future. According to Hassan, easing inflation in major Western markets like Europe and the US, along with rising demand for value-added garments such as suits and jackets, positions Bangladesh’s RMG sector for sustained growth.

The leather industry also thrived, with significant seasonal boosts from winter footwear orders for Christmas, said Nasir Khan of Jennys Shoes. Businesses are hopeful that 2025 will bring stability after navigating inflation, labor unrest, and natural disasters in recent years.

Despite the hurdles, Bangladesh’s resilient exporters have proven their strength and reliability, earning the confidence of international buyers and setting the stage for further growth in the years to come.
 
View attachment 16414

Bangladesh Exports Hit Record $50 Billion in 2024​

2 min read​

Last updated Jan 5, 2025

Share

Bangladesh’s exports soared to an all-time high of $50 billion in 2024, fueled by a sharp spike in December. This milestone provided much-needed relief for an economy navigating external pressures and challenges. Export growth rose by 8.3% year-on-year, as per data from the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) stated in a report.

The December boom contributed $4.62 billion, an 18% increase compared to the same month in 2023, making it the strongest month since March 2024, when exports crossed $5 billion. The readymade garment (RMG) sector played a pivotal role, earning $19.88 billion in the first half of fiscal 2024-25, a 13.28% year-on-year increase.

Knitwear exports rose 13.01% to $10.83 billion, while woven garments brought in $9.05 billion, up 13.60%. Other sectors also saw remarkable growth: leather goods surged 10.44% to $577.29 million, cotton products grew 16.32% to $319.06 million, and non-leather footwear exports skyrocketed by 39.10% to $273.89 million.

Plastic goods exports increased by 29.72%, while agricultural products and frozen fish grew by 9.31% and 13.01%, respectively. Home textiles also saw a 7.85% uptick, reaching $410.81 million.

However, traditional exports like jute and jute goods faced challenges, with shipments falling 8.11% to $417.39 million during July-December.

Industry leaders, including Shams Mahmud of Shasha Denims Ltd and former BGMEA president Faruque Hassan, expressed optimism for the future. According to Hassan, easing inflation in major Western markets like Europe and the US, along with rising demand for value-added garments such as suits and jackets, positions Bangladesh’s RMG sector for sustained growth.

The leather industry also thrived, with significant seasonal boosts from winter footwear orders for Christmas, said Nasir Khan of Jennys Shoes. Businesses are hopeful that 2025 will bring stability after navigating inflation, labor unrest, and natural disasters in recent years.

Despite the hurdles, Bangladesh’s resilient exporters have proven their strength and reliability, earning the confidence of international buyers and setting the stage for further growth in the years to come.
Bilal bhai, we have to diversify our export products and also our export markets. What do you say?
 

Govt ditches 10 economic zones as superfluous
BD doesn't need 100 EZs: BIDA chief
FE REPORT
Published :
Apr 14, 2025 00:35
Updated :
Apr 14, 2025 00:35

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Licences of 10 of a slew of economic zones-five public and as many private-have been rescinded as the interim government recasts Bangladesh's industrial- development strategy.

Chowdhury Ashik Mahmud Bin Harun, the newly appointed Executive Chairman of both the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (BIDA) and the Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority (BEZA), announced the decision at a press conference held Sunday at the Foreign Service Academy in Dhaka.

He said the move was approved during a recent meeting with the chief adviser of the post-uprising government that has undertaken umpteen reforms in the country following the changeover.

The government-run zones that lost their licences are Sonadia Eco Tourism Park in Cox's Bazar, Sundarban Tourism in Bagerhat, Gajaria Economic Zone in Munshiganj, Shreepur Economic Zone in Gazipur, and Mymensingh Economic Zone in Ishwarganj.

The five private zones are BGMEA-proposed Garment Industries Park in Munshiganj, Chatak Economic Zone in Sunamganj, Famkam Economic Zone in Bagerhat, City Special Economic Zone in Dhaka, and Sonargaon Economic Zone in Narayanganj.

Chowdhury points out that Beza had previously approved a total of 97 economic zones-68 under the public sector and 29 private-during the tenure of the previous government.

"I have said before that the country does not need 100 economic zones. Today, we have cancelled 10. We believe these are unnecessary," he states to justify the axing of the dormant EZs.

He also emphasises that moving forward, no new economic zone will be approved without an inter-ministerial meeting and a formal commitment from relevant ministries to ensure adequate service delivery to investors.

"Currently, zones are approved, but investors often wait years without receiving proper services," he told the press.

The announcement happens to come in the wake of the recently concluded Bangladesh Investment Summit 2025, which drew significant international attention. The summit, held over four days, hosted more than 3,500 participants, including 415 foreign delegates from 50 countries. It featured 130 speakers and panelists, and facilitated around 150 official meetings.

Two companies-Handa Industry and ShopUp-announced investment plans totalling Tk31 billion. Six memorandums of understanding (MoUs) were signed during the summit.

According to BIDA's Head of Business Development Nahiyan Rahman Rochi, the total government expenditure for the event stood at Tk14.5 million-42 per cent less than the original budget estimate.

Chowdhury, however, cautioned against judging the summit's success solely by the immediate investment figures.

"No one comes to a summit and writes a cheque for a billion. Much of the preparatory work had been done earlier," he explains.

He stresses that the summit's real achievement was in altering foreign perceptions of Bangladesh. "Visitors often return home with outdated or negative views. This time, they'll be able to share a more accurate and positive picture of the country," he said.

Foreign delegates were taken on site visits and introduced to investment opportunities across sectors. "We've explained where and how to invest. The feedback has been overwhelmingly positive," says Chowdhury on an upbeat note, adding that Bida and Beza would continue to follow up with interested investors to maintain momentum.

He also recommends that future governments organise similar events on a regular basis to sustain global interest in Bangladesh's investment landscape.

To a question, he said as India scrapped transshipment, Bangladesh takes it as an opportunity. "We will develop our airports and strengthen capacity, increase efficiency to ship the goods from different airports, including Dhaka airport," he added.​
 

25 dev projects lined up for foreign funding
JAHIDUL ISLAM
Published :
Apr 13, 2025 00:14
Updated :
Apr 13, 2025 00:14

The Economic Relations Division (ERD) under the Ministry of Finance is set to host a meeting of the "foreign assistance search committee" today to finalise foreign funding for 25 development projects proposed for inclusion in the Annual Development Programme (ADP) of the upcoming fiscal year.

The combined preliminary cost of the projects that will be discussed at the meeting with ERD secretary Shahriar Kader Siddiky in the chair, stands at around Tk 2.0 trillion.

"Of this, the government aims to secure approximately Tk 1.5 trillion in loans and grants from foreign sources," said an ERD senior official.

Among the projects on the agenda is the upgrade of the existing metre-gauge double railway line from Laksam to Chattogram via Chinki Astana to a dual-gauge double line.

The agenda also included two projects to procure watercraft for various agencies under the Ministry of Shipping, and another "Construction of Bhola Bridges on Barisal-Bhola Road over Kalabador and Tentulia River".

The meeting will also focus on securing financing for four projects aimed at generating a combined 430MW of electricity from solar and solar PV power plants.

Following the completion of the fourth phase of the Primary Education Development Programme (PEDP-4), the proposed fifth phase (PEDP-5) has been included for consideration.

Other notable projects on the list include the establishment of a second unit at the Eastern Refinery Limited (ERL) and the installation of a new gas pipeline from Bhola to Khulna.

ERD officials stated that such meetings are regularly organised to finalise the commitment of foreign assistance for various development projects.

The meeting will cover the estimated costs of the proposed projects, potential sources of foreign assistance, the progress of financing discussions with relevant development partners, and the various conditions set by the donor agencies, including loan interest rates.

The analysis found that the total cost of the three components of the Bangladesh Clean Air Project (BCAP) is estimated at Tk 29.04 billion, of which Tk 2.0 billion will be funded by the government, while the remaining Tk 27.04 billion will be provided by the World Bank (WB).

The government has already signed a $300-million loan deal with the WB for this purpose, according to sources from the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change.

The Ministry of Shipping is seeking a loan of Tk 14.48 billion for the "procurement of six new vessels, including chemical product oil tankers (40,000 DWT each) and three bulk carriers (50,000-55,000 DWT each), through a government-to-government (G2G) basis", with a proposed cost of Tk 18.43 billion.

Additionally, the ministry is requesting Tk 14 billion in assistance for the procurement of a 3,500 cubic metre trailing suction hopper dredger, two 28-inch cutter suction dredgers, ancillary vessels, and spare parts for Mongla Port.

The government of China has agreed to provide Tk 28.48 billion to support the implementation of these two projects, said a senior official of the shipping ministry.

Although the meter-gauge railway line from Laksam to Chattogram via Chinki Asthana was upgraded to a double line a few years ago, Bangladesh Railway is now planning to further upgrade the corridor to a dual-gauge double line, with an estimated cost of Tk 159.54 billion.

It is reported that discussions are ongoing for a loan of Tk 134.49 billion from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to fund this project.

The Local Government Division (LGD) is seeking Tk 18.60 billion to implement the "Khulna Water Supply Project (Phase 2)," which is estimated at Tk 26.64 billion.

Additionally, the LGD is also searching for Tk 12.15 billion to implement the "Water as Leverage: Natural Drainage Solutions for Khulna City" project.

However, the ADB has agreed to provide loans of Tk 39.66 billion to support the implementation of these projects.

The Energy and Mineral Resources Division (EMRD) has proposed the modernisation and expansion of the Eastern Refinery Limited (ERL) to establish a second refinery, with an estimated cost of Tk 364.10 billion.

The meeting will focus on securing Tk 255.01 billion in funding from China, the JICA, the World Bank or other development partners.

Additionally, the EMRD has proposed the construction of the Bhola-Barishal-Khulna gas transmission pipeline project involving Tk 50.00 billion to utilise the gas reserves in Bhola area.

The government has decided to withdraw the project titled "Construction of Bhola Bridges on Barisal-Bhola Road over Kalabadar and Tentulia rivers" from the public-private partnership (PPP) list and implement it as an ADP project.

The Bridges Division is seeking funding for the majority of the project's preliminary estimate, which stands at Tk 129.16 billion.

"The economy of Bangladesh, particularly its development activities, is facing a significant downtrend due to the shrinking fiscal space of the government," said Dr Mustafa K. Mujeri, former director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS).

He emphasised that efforts must be intensified to ensure a substantial inflow of foreign aid to sustain these development activities.

He also highlighted the importance of proper scrutiny of projects before approval and actively seeking financing to ensure the best value for government spending.

The economist further stressed that investment in human capital development, such as health, education, and social security, should take priority over the implementation of physical infrastructure projects.​
 

Remittance narrows payment deficit
Staff Correspondent 13 April, 2025, 23:51

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Bangladesh’s current account deficit shrank in July-February of the current financial year due mainly to a sharp increase in remittance inflow, according to Bangladesh Bank data.

The deficit dropped to $1.26 billion in the first eight months of the 2024-25 financial year compared with that of $4.07 billion in the same period of the previous financial year.

The current account is a key indicator of a country’s external financial health. It measures the gap between the money Bangladesh earns from the rest of the world and what it spends on foreign goods, services, and income payments. It includes exports and imports, income from foreign investments, and transfers like remittances.

The main reason for the improvement in the current account was a significant rise in remittances, which boosted the country’s secondary income.

In July-February of FY25, the secondary income rose to $18.8 billion compared with that of $15.36 billion in the previous year. Of the secondary income, $18.48 billion came from remittances sent by Bangladeshis working abroad.

The country continued to face a primary income deficit — payments made to foreigners for interest, dividends, and salaries. This deficit stood at $2.86 billion, as the income paid out ($3.33 billion) far exceeded the income received ($470 million).

Bangladesh’s trade deficit also declined slightly in the period.

It dropped to $13.69 billion in July–February of FY25 compared with that of $14.32 billion in the same period of FY24.

This was driven by a 9.1-per cent growth in exports, which rose to $30 billion from $27.54 billion.

Imports, however, rose by 4.5 per cent to $43.73 billion compared with those of $41.87 billion, which limited the overall improvement in the trade balance.

The financial account, which tracks foreign investments and loans, however, showed a higher surplus of $1.41 billion in July–February of FY25, compared with that of $654 million in the same period of FY24.

The net foreign loan inflow stood at $3.85 billion during the period, lower than the $4.99 billion received in the same period of FY24. However, repayments of the previous loans increased to $1.75 billion from $1.26 billion a year earlier.

The trade services deficit, which covers payments for things like international travel, transport, and business services, widened to $3.5 billion compared with that of $2.41 billion. This reflects a rise in foreign exchange spent on service-related imports.

As of April 6, Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves, measured as per the International Monetary Fund guidelines, stood at $20.46 billion.

The interbank exchange rate rose to Tk 122 per US dollar, continuing pressure on the local currency.​
 

Bangladesh economy in transition
Hasnat Abdul Hye
Published :
Apr 15, 2025 22:05
Updated :
Apr 15, 2025 22:05

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Unarguably, Bangladesh economy pivoted into transition after the regime that was in power for over a decade and a half was ousted violently, leaving little by way of continuity in economic policy making. Restructuring and re-configuring the shattered financial sector rightly received top priority of the interim government. Monetary policy instruments were prudently used to rein in inflation that obstinately hovered around double digit. Reversing the chronic practice of money laundering, attempts have been made to retrieve some of the money siphoned off to safe havens. Public sector spending, particularly under the annual development plan, has been rationalised.

An initiative has been taken recently to develop a new index aimed at providing a more realistic representation of economic activities. Currently, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) measures only industrial production through the Quantum Index of Industrial Production (QIIP) which fails to capture the full range of economic activities, particularly the contributions of the services sector. According to BBS, the shift in consumption trends, particularly the growing demand for tech services, makes the QIIP inadequate as a measurement of growth of the economy. The services sector’s share in the gross domestic product (GDP) of the country was 52.72 per cent as of fiscal year 2023-24 (FY24) and it is increasing in size. The introduction of a new measurement tool (Quarterly Index of Services Production - QISP) is expected to provide a more comprehensive measurement of the growth of the economy. Alongside, measures are underway to make a realistic estimation of the GDP.

At the micro level, supply of essentials, particularly food items like rice, edible oil, pulses etc has been smoothed over through duty free imports. This has been supplemented with open market sales of essential food items through Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB).The strategic goals revealed by these policies are obvious: firstly, to rein in inflation to give relief to the average consumers; and secondly, to re-orient development programmes affecting macro-economic variables consistent with repayment capacity. The outcome of the first set of policies can be analysed within a short term framework while the second policy interventions can be judged for their effectiveness only in the medium term. With these introductory observations, an attempt is made below to visualise the state of Bangladesh economy, both at micro and macro levels, as it prevails now.

Micro economy: For the first time in many years, the price of essential food items did not rise during the month of Ramadan. The liberal import policy for food items and weakening of the syndicates that flourished under political indulgence in the past, undoubtedly accounted for this unprecedented behaviour of the market. The role of open market sales of food items through TCB was circumscribed in the beginning because of scrutiny of the card holders which accounted for high food inflation. As a result of the pragmatic policy taken later to combine free market operation and public distribution of food (both bolstered by duty free import of food items) food inflation has now registered a decline. According to BBS, food inflation in March was 8.93 per cent, compared to 9.24 in February last. But the headline inflation has increased to 9.35 per cent in March, up from 9.32 in February because of increase in prices of non-food items. With the sharp decline of oil and gas prices in international market, the domestic price of these crucial non-food items can be expected to register a decline, bringing down both core and headline inflation. What is worrying now is the gap between the rate of increase in wages and the rate of inflation In March. The rate of increase in average national wages was 8.15 per cent, above the rate of inflation at 9.35 per cent. People in the low income group are hard put to make both ends meet because of this discrepancy between their income and market prices. Continuing with social safety net programmes and open market sales of food items appears to be the answer for the short term and perhaps for the medium term as well. As food items take up much of the consumption basket of the low income group and bulk of them are met by local production, growth in agriculture sector will be crucial in determining the level of inflation. The creeping rise in prices for rice, edible oils and vegetables after Eid festival is a warning that market for food items has an inherent tendency of being skittish due to operation of syndicates and there cannot be any let up in the enforcement of regulations and countervailing measures by the government in this respect.

An important initiative of the interim government is a plan of action to examine every stage of the supply chain of nine key commodities so that consumers can buy essential items at fair prices from kitchen markets. The commodities are rice, edible oil, onion, egg, potato, pulse, sugar, green chilli and cauliflower. Different agencies will first inspect their supply chain from import or production stage to consumers’ end to identify the causes of price hikes and prepare a detailed report based on the findings. The Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission (BTTC), Directorate of National Consumer Rights Protection (DNCRP) and government intelligence agencies will then finalise the report as per the terms reference (TOR). The TORs include determination of the price of goods, identifying the causes of price spiral, spotting the participants in the supply chain (producers, importers, traders and consumers) and fixing share rates of the participants who are involved in setting prices of essential commodities. This is the first time that a systematic attempt is underway to supervise and control price through a combination of market forces and government intervention. If successful, this will be a test case of micro policy of government working through free market principle.

Macro economy: According to latest report of BBS, at the end of the second quarter of FY25 (October-December, 2024), the rate of growth of GDP was 4.48 per cent. This is a significant improvement from 1.81 per cent growth rate crawled during the first quarter (July-September) of fiscal FY25. The increase in the rate of growth indicates that the shock of the political turmoil during the last days of the ousted regime and its after effects have been overcome to a great extent. But the recovery and growth has not been uniform and varies from sector to sector. For instance, the BBS report shows that during the October-December quarter of FY25, agricultural growth rate lagged behind those in industry and services sectors. Against 7.10 per cent growth in industrial sector and 3.78 per cent in services sector, growth rate in agriculture was a paltry 1.25 per cent. The figure for the corresponding period last fiscal was 4.09 per cent The causes for this laggard performance in agricultural sector, relative to the other sectors, have not been explained. As agriculture was not adversely affected by the political upheaval last year, which affected the services sector the most and industries sector next, the anaemic growth of agriculture calls for in-depth analysis. One explanation may be the three waves of floods last year, the worst being the one in August affecting 11 districts in the eastern part of the country. But there may be structural problems which have become chronic. Among structural problems, low prices at farm gates for farmers are known to have acted as a break on the growth in the sector. Government procurement price to ensure fair price to producers cover only rice and that too fails to benefit farmers because of delay in procurement and built-in corruption. A robust agriculture sector is not only important for boosting GDP growth but is also crucial for reducing dependence on import of agricultural products, especially food items. There is urgent need for bringing about structural changes, ranging from production (subsidy) to marketing (procurement, regulation of wholesale markets) and the interim government provides the ideal backdrop for carrying out necessary reforms in this sector traditionally known as ‘primary’.

Meanwhile, the interim government has revised down the economic growth projection for FY2025 to 5.2 per cent from the previous 6.75 per cent in view of the prevailing challenges in the economy. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has significantly cut Bangladesh economic growth forecast, suggesting reforms are required to achieve higher growth. ADB has cut Bangladesh GDP projection by 1.2 per cent to estimate GDP for fiscal 2024-2025 at 3.9 per cent in its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) for 2025. The ADO in September 2024 forecast that Bangladesh would expand at 5.1 per cent rate during the current fiscal (FY25). Its economic growth projection in April, 2024 was much higher at 6.6 per cent. Among the causes for reduction in earlier estimate, the ADO mentions ‘slower growth in services owing to political unrest, financial sector tightening and vulnerability, persistent inflation and reduced household purchasing power’. Though it has projected a better economic future in FY2026, estimating 5.1 per cent growth in GDP, it has also drawn a grim picture for the near future resulting from global economic slowdown sparked by sweeping tariffs slapped by America on almost all countries, including Bangladesh. ‘The US is the largest export market for Bangladesh. So, given this, the tariffs are expected to adversely impact export earnings’, the ADO has said. About inflation, the latest ADO of ADB has projected it to an average 10.2 per cent in FY25, which is higher than the latest estimate made by BBS.

Growth of the economy depends on performance of private and public sectors. Here, in addition to sunken investments, new investments play crucial roles. From available data it appears the level of investment in the private sector during FY25 has registered a decline, which is a cause for concern as the sector is a major contributor to growth and employment. One indicator of private sector growth is the level of private sector bank borrowing for investment. According to the current monetary policy, the target for private sector borrowing has been fixed at 9.80 per cent. Bangladesh Bank figures show private sector borrowing till February last was 6.82 per cent compared to 7.5 per cent in the previous month. Increase in interest rate for borrowing, liquidity crisis in banks, shortages and high cost of purchasing foreign exchange and last but not the least, change of regime involving change of investors in private sector are among the main causes for a weakened private sector. Not only new investors have not come forward during the current fiscal because of the factors mentioned, many of the old investors and entrepreneurs who flourished under crony capitalism under the previous regime are either absent (hiding or living abroad) or have reduced operation, biding for a settled political future.

The bulk of bank borrowing by private sector is for opening letter of credit by importers. Because of foreign exchange shortages and high exchange rates, many importers have been discouraged to continue their business or have dramatically reduced it. According to Bangladesh Bank, during the first eight months of the current fiscal (July-February) L/C for capital goods declined by 30.15 per cent. During the same period, L/ C for intermediate goods decreased by 2.5 per cent.

According to the apex business and industries body, many banks were not feeling comfortable in giving loans to the private sector in recent months and were more inclined to the high-yielding, risk free government securities.

Public sector investment has sometimes compensated for sluggish growth in private sector. But because of the financial chaos inherited by the interim government public sector investment has not marked a significant uptick. According to official data, during the first-half (H1) development budget spending has been uninspiring as ministries and agencies under them could spend only Tk 407.28 billion out of the total allocation of Tk 2.81 trillion, implying that up to December 2025, actual expenditure was only 14.47 per cent of the total development budget. Lower rate growth of the public sector is the result of downsizing of the development budget by the new government, weeding out less important projects, static availability of revenue income, higher amount paid for subsidies interest on previous public borrowing, non- disbursal of the third and fourth tranches of IMF’s $ 4.7 billion bailout loan.

It was expected that after the overthrow of the autocratic regime, the interim government would receive foreign loans and grants on a larger volume. But though interest was shown by lending agencies nothing much has materialised in real terms. Figures show that instead of increasing commitments and disbursements, both declined during the first eight months of the current fiscal (July-February). Commitments for fresh loans declined by as much as 68 per cent. According to ERD of the Finance ministry, commitments for multilateral and bilateral loans during this period amounted to only US$2.3 billion. Alongside commitments for new loans, disbursement also have seen a decline of 800 million dollar during the same period. (The Financial Express, March 25, 2025).

Among the good news on the macro-economic side is the development in the export sector. According to Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) source, the country’s merchandise export earnings rose by 10.63 per cent to $ 37.19 billion during the first nine months of the current fiscal based on the readymade garment ( RMG) sector’s strong and consistent growth. Export earnings were $33.63 billion during the July-March period of the last fiscal. The single-month earnings in March, 2025 stood at $4.25 billion, marking an 11.44 per cent increase, compared to the corresponding month in 2024. The country’s export earnings from RMG alone stood at $30.25 billion during the July-March period of FY25, marking a10.84 per cent year-on-year rise. The single-month RMG export earnings in March 2025 stood at $3.45 billion, 12.4 per cent higher than that in the corresponding month last year. While the contribution of RMG to export earnings continues to bear good tidings, the dependence of the economy on one item of export has been a matter of concern for policymakers. This concern has been particularly pressing in view of the ensuing cut-off period for Bangladesh’s graduation from LDC-status. The government of Bangladesh is seized with the challenge and has reportedly got down to devising a strategy for keeping competitiveness of four major items of export beyond RMG, after 2026 when export subsidy will be discontinued following LDC-graduation. The four items are: leather and leather goods, jute goods, agriculture and agro- processed goods and pharmaceuticals. It is encouraging to learn that the ministry of finance has formed a committee to devise a strategy to maintain competitive edge in the global market for these four items. But the basket of exports requires to be diversified further to include light engineering products and consumer durables, even heavy engineering sector like shipbuilding where Bangladeshi workers have shown their mettle.

The second piece of good news on the macroeconomic side is the record foreign exchange earnings through remittance sent by wage earners. According to Bangladesh Bank source, the total amount remitted from July 2024 to March 2025, the first nine months of current fiscal, stood at $21.77 billion, compared to $16.69 billion for the corresponding period last year. A new record was set in remittance earnings, reaching an all-time high of $2.74 billion in just 24 days in March. Though a major factor behind the recent surge in remittance was Eid festival, the use of banking channels has been significant for this development. The illegal money transfer through ‘hundi’, that deprived the country from foreign exchange earnings, has drastically dwindled after the change of governments, indicating linkage between hundi operators and their political patrons.

The increase in remittance, along with export earnings, has significant implications for Bangladesh economy, helping to stabilise the foreign exchange reserves and support the forex market. The foreign exchange reserves of the country, as of 24 March, was estimated at $20.01 billion as per IMF’s BPM6 (Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, sixth edition,2009).

According to Bangladesh Bank data, exchange rate of Bangladesh Taka against USD depreciated by 1.67 per cent during July- December period of FY25 while Indian Rupee depreciated 2.19 per cent during the same period, indicating Bangladesh’s foreign exchange market is more stable than that of India. There is now no selling of foreign currency from the forex reserves as was the practice during the previous government. A result of this policy the foreign exchange rate has become market based, relieving the reserves from pressure. The flexible exchange rate operating in market has resulted in a narrow difference in exchange rates between formal and informal markets, which is one reasons why remittance is being sent mostly through banking channels now.

As a result of significant growth in remittance and uptick in exports, Bangladesh is now having surplus in current account for the first time after a year and a half. In a recent interview the Bangladesh Bank governor said, ‘There was a deficiency in the balance of payment, our reserves were falling, and our currency was depreciating rapidly. But after six months of the present government, I would say that we are maintaining a virtual balance in our current account’ . The data of the central bank shows that the current account balance stood at $33 million in surplus during the July- December period of FY25, overcoming a deficit of over $3.47 billion during the same period a year earlier. According to recent data, the country saw 26.70 per cent growth in remittance inflow while exports grew by 11 per cent in the first six months of the current fiscal (FY25). On the other hand, import orders increased only by 3.5 per cent, bolstering the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

Capital account, another component of the balance of payment, turned surplus with $217 million during the first half of FY25, up by more than 35 per cent from the same period last fiscal. This has resulted in the reduction to $384 million now from a deficit of $3.45 billion a year ago.

To sum up, during the six months under the interim government, there are mixed performance on the micro economic side but very encouraging developments in terms of macroeconomic variables. Worsening of poverty situation, as recorded by a recent BIDS study, is a spill over from the past, presents a challenge to the interim government even if its tenure may be for the short term. The problem is, the government has undertaken a programme of wide-ranging reforms for which it does not have time. Prioritising the areas of reforms appears to be of the essence.​
 

Loan review team disclosure today
IMF may disburse $1.14b in twin tranches


Total funds may rise to $1.3b on last-minute consensus
Syful Islam
Published :
Apr 17, 2025 00:28
Updated :
Apr 17, 2025 00:28

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Bangladesh may receive US$1.14 billion in two instalments together from a package loan extended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), finance officials expect as a latest review of the lending terms concludes.

An announcement to this effect will be given today (Thursday) in tune with staff-level agreements the multilateral lender has reached with the Bangladesh authority, they said.

The IMF review mission had a wrap-up discussion with Finance Adviser of the interim government Dr Salehuddin Ahmed at his office on Wednesday afternoon that ended on a positive note, according to the officials.

Headed by Chris Papageorgiou, IMF's Mission Chief for Bangladesh, came to Dhaka on April 6 and its mission would end with the announcement.

The $1.14-billion fund is coming under fourth and fifth tranches in $570 million each. The fourth tranche was scheduled to come by the first week of February, but got stuck.

Approval for the instalment was deferred by the IMF citing Bangladesh's failure to accomplish two prior actions-additional revenue mobilisation and exchange-rate flexibility.

The Washington-headquartered lender later informed Bangladeshi officials that approval for the fourth tranche would be taken together with review of achievements for the fifth tranche of the $4.7-billion lending programme.

Finance Ministry officials, however, could not confirm whether the lender will also provide an additional $750 million that the two sides had agreed in September last.

"It is certain that we are getting two instalments together," said one finance official, referring to their nearly two-week-long discussions with the IMF team.

However, he was hesitant to confirm that Bangladesh is also getting the additional $750 million.

The IMF granted the $4.7-billion loan to Bangladesh in January 2023 to help support the country's dwindling economy to accomplish stability. The loan was scheduled to be given in seven instalments by May 2026.

Finance Ministry officials say the National Board of Revenue (NBR) has made a commitment to generating additional revenue as suggested by the IMF. The Fund had been pushing to set a higher revenue target in the next fiscal budget aiming to raise the tax-GDP ratio by 0.9%.

On exchange-rate flexibility, the two sides have reached a sort of consensus, but still some differences remained pending, officials have said.

So, they say, the two instalments' coming together has been confirmed.

However, another official says, the total amount can even increase to $1.3 billion, each tranche bearing $650 million, if a last-minute consensus reached on some pending issues.

Contacted Wednesday, an IMF official in Dhaka did not make any comment regarding the mission outcome before a formal announcement.​
 

IMF delays staff level agreement with Bangladesh
FE ONLINE REPORT
Published :
Apr 17, 2025 17:00
Updated :
Apr 17, 2025 17:00

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has delayed reaching a staff level agreement due to existence of some differences with the Bangladeshi authorities.

A visiting team of the IMF, headed by Chris Papageorgiou, the agency’s Mission Chief for Bangladesh, made the announcement on Thursday at a press conference in the capital.

“Discussions are continuing with the objective of reaching a staff-level agreement in the near term- including during April 2025 IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, DC-to pave the way for the completion of the combined third and fourth programme review,” Mr Papageorgiou said.

However, Jayendu De, Resident Representative of IMF in Dhaka, said the agency will try to release the fourth and fifth tranches of the $4.7 billion loan before the end of the current fiscal year.​
 

No sign of taming inflation and getting at the root of problems
Nilratan Halder
Published :
Apr 17, 2025 21:50
Updated :
Apr 17, 2025 21:50

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In this country what the businesses demand, they get and they get it at the cost of the consumers. The public are a disparate lot and in the absence of a unified platform, their demands are met with indifference. Contrary to this, traders take resort to all kinds of tactics ---from creation of artificial crisis to arm-twisting to unilateral price hike ---in order to get their way. A case in point right now is the price increase of soybean oil by Tk 14 and Tk 12 to Tk 189 and Tk169 a litre for the bottled and loose varieties respectively. Palm oil price has also shot up by Tk 12 to Tk169 a litre. The importers and millers of the cooking oil had been clamouring for long to get the prices increased. But after the increase, they still grumble that the price of soybean oil justified a hike of Tk 21 a litre. They have foregone the profit of Tk 7.0 a litre considering the greater good of the consumers! How condescending!

The truth is that this time businesses involved with cooking oils have at least a valid excuse for hiking prices. With the government withdrawing the 10 per cent duty waiver from the 15 per cent granted earlier for keeping the prices at a tolerable level during the month of Ramadan, they are unlikely to sell cooking oil at the same prices as before. But is the claim made by the Bangladesh Vegetable Oil Refiners and Vanaspati Manufacturers Association (BVORVMA) that the withdrawal of duty waiver justified a Tk21 increase? Did the ministry concerned take a meticulous account of the import, transport and production costs before agreeing to the BVORVMA's demand for the record price rise? Price of soybean oil was increased by Tk8.0 a litre in December last. Since then its price has declined in the international market.

The question is, can the common people afford cooking oils at these atrocious prices? Even the commerce adviser had to admit that the current levels of cooking oil prices "would pose challenges for consumers". But then, on the question of VAT waiver, he flatly denied the government had any other option. Duty waiver at the moment is a highly sensitive matter, he claimed. How ludicrous! The compulsion of revenue collection and no concessions in matters of tariff as dictated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have proved more sensitive than the unpopular price hike drawing public flak!

What about the release of the fourth and fifth tranches of the $4.7 billion IMF loan? After an IMF team's visit to Dhaka, the news about it has almost gone blank. Although there is a casual report on the release of the two tranches together in June, there may be more to it than meets the eye. Once a least developed or developing country seeks help from the multilateral organisations, particularly the Bretton Woods Institutions, the compulsion for going by the recipes, stinging as they may be, is overwhelming. No wonder, the diktat from such organisations has to be complied with even if the people are left to bleed.

What is particularly galling is that cooking oil is not the only essential item that has registered such an outrageous price hike. Onion, egg and vegetables have followed suit. All this comes right at a time when gas price for new factories and industries as well as for the existing ones using the fuel in excess of the approved load has been increased by 33 per cent. According to the Petrobangla, a total of 147.8 million cubic metre of gas was used in excess of the approved load by the country's industrial units between November 2023 and October 2024. The captive power plants also used an additional 57.6 million cubic metre of gas to their approved quota. Now the 33 per cent increased price will be applicable on this volume of gas.

The implications and indications of all these transpire a further escalation of prices of commodities. It was the winter's abundant supply of vegetables and items of a short-duration shelf life that was mainly responsible for bringing the inflation below the double digit. Nothing goes to the government's credit. In fact, rice -not easily perishable---continued to register price increase even in the peak harvesting season of Aman paddy. Meanwhile, wheat has also become costlier by Tk 2.0-5.0 a kilogram. The government's policy failure becomes more glaring when it fails to protect the interests of farmers. Right now potato growers are suffering because of low price as well as a lack of storage facility.

Market is most likely to grow further jittery with the onset of the lean season and the monsoon. Already onion has raised the signal that the country will have to grapple with this perennial trouble maker. Construction of a number of modern cold storages and warehouses for some basic food items such as paddy or rice, potato, onion, tomato etc; by the government for meeting emergencies or offsetting market manipulation by business syndicates could be undertaken on a priority basis. A good dispensation ought to be proactive instead of reactive in solving food crises. Unfortunately, the interim government has failed to plan innovatively to deal with the crises of essentials both locally produced in abundance and imported like cooking oil, the share of which is more than 90 per cent. Elimination of the middlemen and putting in place a market mechanism to offset business syndicates' intrigues can make the market stable and rein in inflation.​
 

Balanced, flexible policy needed to tame inflation
Published :
Apr 18, 2025 22:39
Updated :
Apr 18, 2025 22:39

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The interim government is reportedly going to be tightfisted while preparing the next national budget with a view to curbing inflation. It aims to bring the inflation down to 6.5 per cent by the next fiscal year (FY2025-26). However, in the current fiscal (FY2024-25) under the revised budget, the Finance Ministry has projected the inflation rate to be at 8.5 per cent, though the overall inflation rate was 9.35 per cent last month (March), slightly higher (driven by non-food items) than the previous month this year, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). Notably, the inflation rate has remained above 9.0 per cent for the last 23 months. In fact, the major driver of the rise in inflation rate in Bangladesh is generally attributed to high price of essential commodities. Now, one wonders, how can the government expect to rein in the inflation rate since just after the Eid it, reportedly, following consultations with the refiners, did substantially raise the per litre retail price of bottled soybean oil by Tk 14 and those of non-bottled varieties of soybean and palm oils by Tk12.

Both these items being kitchen essentials, the decision is definitely going to hit the lives of the low-income section of the population hard by increasing its cost of living further. As it could be gathered, the period of low VAT facility at 5.0 per cent that the oil importers and refiners had been enjoying since mid-December last year having now being over, the prices of the edible oils in question are at present being set according to their rates on the international market. Though the international market for soybean oil reportedly declined by 10 per cent during the January-March period of this year, the government, allegedly, has succumbed to the pressure coming from the edible oil refiners. Prior to the edible oil price hike, there also came an official announcement to raise gas prices by 33 per cent for new industries and gas-based captive power plants. The new measure surely pushes up the cost of production of many industries and discourages new investment at a time when the government has been seriously trying to attract new domestic and foreign investments.

The central bank's decision to continue with the contractionary monetary policy aimed at containing inflation comes into question. What is more important is not any abstract theory that has proved to be effective historically in slowing down economies that get overheated due to high consumer spending. This is a phenomenon often observed in advanced industrial economies and not in a developing economy like Bangladesh where other factors like market distortions caused by syndicates, rent-seeking by powerful quarters while the essential commodities are in transit and disruption of supply chain by various other non-market actors are at work. So, according to some experts, streamlining of inefficient business regulations and untangling supply chains from exploitative practices could help. Also, other means like effective application of stricter law-enforcement measures would be necessary.

Against this backdrop, the government in its upcoming budget would do well to adopt a more balanced and flexible policy to fight inflation while at the same time allowing the economy to grow. The government's actions from various fronts need to be complementary, not contradictory, for the greater good of the country's economy.​
 

Buying local goods in time of trade war
SYED MUHAMMED SHOWAIB
Published :
Apr 18, 2025 22:37
Updated :
Apr 18, 2025 22:37

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Like much of the world, Bangladesh built its economy around international trade with other countries. This reliance on exports and imports has been one of the cornerstones of the country's economic growth since its independence. It wasn't meant to be a bad thing because for nearly a century, the global economy has been driven by countries buying and selling goods. Economists have labelled it as globalisation and have been pushing for it since they believe when countries trade freely, it generates more prosperity for everyone involved with the commerce.

However, that long-held principle is now being tested. With US President Donald Trump's imposition of sweeping trade tariffs, a plan he paused for most countries for three months, the world appears to be turning toward protectionism. While it is still unclear how far-reaching the changes will be, it is evident that countries like Bangladesh that are deeply reliant on exports will likely bear significant impacts.

On April 2, when announcing "reciprocal" tariffs on nearly all imported goods, President Trump said, "If you want your tariff rate to be zero, then you build your product right here in America because there is no tariff if you build your plant, your product in America." This is a protectionist policy intended to discourage US imports. Apparently, Trump administration believes any country's exports to the US has to be balanced with its imports from the US, otherwise it will be penalised with tariffs.

As the world's largest importer of goods, adoption of such a stance by the US has significant global implications. When it treats its trade deficit with another country as a loss and seeks to impose tariffs proportional to that deficit, it risks setting off a chain reaction. As a consequence, affected countries may retaliate or impose their own trade restrictions to protect their balance of payments.

In the last fiscal year, Bangladesh had a $6.2 billion trade surplus with the US largely due to strong demand in the US market for Bangladesh's high-quality, reasonably priced apparel. However, under the new trade logic, it makes Bangladesh a target. While President Trump may think trade deficit as bad, this view is flawed. As argued by Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, no one considers it a problem to have a trade deficit with their local grocery store. The store sells goods to a customer who doesn't necessarily sell anything back, but no one sees this as unfair. If that's not considered negative for an individual, why should it be negative for a country? Nevertheless, as long as the US continues to interpret trade imbalances negatively, Bangladesh must reassess its import-export strategies accordingly.

While enjoying a trade surplus with the US, Bangladesh faces considerable trade deficits with other major partners including approximately $20 billion with China, $10 billion with India and $600 million with Pakistan annually. Should exports to the US face headwinds, the country must adjust by re-evaluating its imports. Bangladesh could consider imposing tariffs on foreign products that have viable local alternatives, especially from countries with whom it runs large trade deficits. Ironically, there are instances where the opposite seems to be occurring. For example, India, which enjoys a significant trade surplus with Bangladesh, imposed non-tariff and para-tariff barriers such as anti-dumping duties on certain Bangladeshi export items. In a new world order of economic nationalism, such disparities must be addressed.

Given that reserves of foreign currency are finite, a reduction in export earnings should be matched by a corresponding decrease in import expenditure. However, this reduction in imports cannot be achieved overnight. Instead, a strategic, long-term plan is needed to reduce reliance on foreign goods. To that end, Bangladesh could adopt a 15-year roadmap to restructure its economy so that it can gradually build capacities to replace imported items with local alternatives.

Among Bangladesh's top imports are cotton and cotton yarn, primarily sourced from China and India, and vital for the dominant readymade garments industry. Currently local cotton production meets only 2.0-3.0 percent of national demand even though the country has suitable climate conditions to produce much more. The good news is Bangladesh has developed high-yielding cotton varieties with desirable fibre quality, which if effectively utilised by local farmers could present significant opportunity for import substitution. To capitalise on this, the government can take proactive steps such as offering incentives to farmers and tax benefits to mills that use locally produced cotton. The transition thus gets encouraged.

Looking ahead, Bangladesh must also diversify its export destinations to reduce risks associated with over-reliance on a single market, as exemplified by the current situation with the US. Nearly one-fifth of Bangladesh's exports go to the US, and this level of dependence can turn into vulnerability. The quality of Bangladeshi products is evident from their acceptance in competitive markets like the US and parts of Europe. To build on this strength, the government should actively pursue diplomatic outreach and trade agreements to identify and cultivate new export markets for these high-quality goods.

Equally important is strengthening domestic self-reliance. Economic nationalism appears to be on the rise in various countries where advocates are calling for spending the taxpayers' money at home as long as the costs remain reasonable. In India, the government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has promoted the "Make in India" initiative to actively encourage local manufacturing. To avoid appearing overtly protectionist, his administration has strategically combined this push with efforts to attract foreign investment. Similarly, in Bangladesh campaigns urging consumers to boycott some items of foreign origin frequently circulate on social media. Although the impact of these calls on sales may be limited, such campaigns can still damage brand reputations and strengthen public sentiment in favour of local goods.

With a substantial consumer base exceeding 160 million, Bangladesh stands to gain significantly from prioritising local products. Encouraging consumers to choose domestically manufactured goods would not only conserve valuable foreign currency but also create jobs and support the growth of local industries.​
 

Local currency near-competitive with dollar in foreign trade
Jasim Uddin Haroon
Published :
Apr 19, 2025 00:16
Updated :
Apr 19, 2025 00:16

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A price correction in March brings the Bangladesh currency to a more competitive level in foreign trade, after having stayed significantly overvalued against the US dollar in January and February.

The real effective exchange rate (REER) index dropped to 101.90 in March 2025, implying that the taka is now overvalued just by Tk 2.30 against the greenback in currency exchange.

In its latest report the central bank says the decline in the REER index reflects a marginal improvement in the competitiveness of the taka in international trade, driven by favourable price differentials between Bangladesh and its trading partners.

The Bangladesh Bank regularly reports to the government on the nominal, nominal-effective and real-effective exchange rates of the taka against a basket of 18 currencies. This basket covers more than 85 per cent of the country's trade.

In economic terms, a REER value of 100 signifies balanced trade- competitiveness. A value above 100 means the currency is overvalued, which can hurt exports by making them more expensive in global markets.

Officials at the central bank told the FE that a slight easing in domestic inflation helped reduce the REER. "We're working to bring the REER closer to 100," says one official familiar with the developments on the foreign-exchange front.

Inflation fell to 9.35 per cent in March on a point-to-point basis, while the taka depreciated 3.28 per cent during July-March period compared to the same period a year earlier.

The exchange rate of the taka against the US dollar depreciated by 3.28 per cent during July-March FY25, compared to a 1.49-percent depreciation in the same period of FY24.

Bangladesh's inflation remains higher than that of its major trading partners, which continues to contribute to the currency's overvaluation. The 12-month average inflation was 10.26 per cent as of March.

During the tenure of the previous central-bank governor, Abdur Rouf Talukder, the taka was overvalued as much as by Tk 6.0 to Tk 7.0.

Dr Zahid Hussain, an independent economist, says Bangladesh's persistently high inflation compared to its trading partners is a key reason for the taka overvaluation against the US dollar.

"Although inflation has slightly eased, there's concern it may rise again due to increases in the prices of essential items like soybean oil and some varieties of rice," he notes.

Bangladesh's two largest trading partners, China and India, are experiencing relatively much lower inflation.

China is currently facing deflationary pressure and its inflation stood at 0.7 per cent in March, while India's inflation stood at 3.34 per cent. Together, these two countries account for over 40 per cent of Bangladesh's total imports.

Inflation was also lower in other key trading areas - 3.6 per cent in India and 2.2 per cent in the Eurozone in March.

Dr M. Masrur Reaz, chairman and CEO of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, has highlighted that an overvalued currency erodes trade- competitiveness, particularly affecting export performance.

He notes that Bangladesh's exports have been increasing and might increase in the coming months, too, as trade war between the USA and China might give dividend in favour of Bangladesh.

Exports increased by over 3.0 per cent in February, fetching $3.673 billion, according to Export Promotion Bureau (EPB).

However, as an import-dependent economy, Bangladesh also relies heavily on foreign goods for both consumption and production. To modernise its exchange rate and monetary policy, the Bangladesh Bank introduced a series of reforms on December 31, 2024 following the regime change.

It now publishes a daily reference rate based on the weighted average of freely quoted exchange rates from market transactions which on 17 April 2025 (Operation till 05:00 PM) was recorded at 121.8949.

In May 2024, the central bank implemented a Crawling Peg Exchange Rate System for spot dollar transactions, introducing a Crawling Peg Mid Rate (CPMR) of Tk 117.00 per USD.​
 

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