Bangladesh Defense
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Challenges facing the new government
Unarguably, the BNP-led government now in charge of the helm of state power is in the birth throes of new governance. Though no stranger in running a government in Bangladesh, BNP finds itself facing a new set of challenges- political, economic and geo-political. Much water has flown under the brid
Challenges facing the new government
Hasnat Abdul Hye
Published :
Mar 01, 2026 00:18
Updated :
Mar 01, 2026 00:18
Unarguably, the BNP-led government now in charge of the helm of state power is in the birth throes of new governance. Though no stranger in running a government in Bangladesh, BNP finds itself facing a new set of challenges- political, economic and geo-political. Much water has flown under the bridge between now and the last time they were in power. The experiences it had when last in power in 2001 are not very relevant at present and as such cannot be a guideline for decisions to be taken now.
Not only has the external context, politically and economically, changed, internally also the party finds itself in new circumstances. During the past twenty five years when BNP was out of power and marginalised and oppressed by an autocratic regime, it had to fight for its survival which saw its leaders and supporters active inside Bangladesh and abroad, particularly United Kingdom (UK). The chairman of the party being in confinement, the vice chairman of the party in self-exile in London had to lead the party through London-based supporters and the leaders and workers in Bangladesh. While this double entity helped to cohere the party together, the division created pressure points at two places claiming the attention of the leader. This was not a problem when BNP was in opposition. But now being in power, its leader must be under pressure from both centres for priority attention. Making both groups happy will not be a cake walk, not even with the appointments of a good number of advisors from both centres. Already some party stalwarts, kept out of the cabinet, have started grumbling. Keeping unity in the party will be a great challenge for the new chairman. If party cohesion is not ensured political instability may start from within. It will be naive to think that outsiders will not be willing to fish in troubled waters, stoking dissension and unrest. One way of keeping solidarity in the party may be giving ministerial portfolios to senior and junior members of the party by rotation with three years term for seniors and two years for juniors. This will have the additional advantage of allowing junior leaders to acquire ministerial experience which will stand in good stead for them as well for the party.
The BNP government committed to inclusive politics can be said to be in a dilemma as to what to do with Awami League. In the just concluded general election the party was not allowed to participate though it has not been banned. There was some justification for this as public sentiment across a broad swathe of electorate was still negative about the party that entrenched autocracy in the country. In the next election, public mood may be different and willing to see inclusive democracy. BNP government should allow Awami League to take part in the next general election making the leaders who have been punished and against whom criminal cases have been pending, both disqualified.
In domestic politics, the second challenge for the new government and BNP as the party in power will be to work out a modus operandi with Jamat-e-Islami and the National Citizen's Party (NCP). The immediate issue placing them at loggerheads is the implementation of July Charter. BNP is not against the implementation of the unanimously agreed provisions of the charter but differs on the mechanism. They believe that the reforms envisioned in the Charter can be brought about by the Jatyo Sangshad itself and there is no need for a second Chamber of parliament to do the same. Prominent constitutional experts in the country have opined in the same vein. BNP should sit together with Jamat and NCP and try to convince them of this method of implementing the agreed provisions of July Charter. Making unilateral declarations about the July Charter can only antagonise the opposition parties and widen the chasm between them and the BNP-led government. For the sake of political stability, this must not be allowed to happen. The nation has paid a heavy price in the past for allowing adversarial relation to metastasize between party in power and opposition.
On the economic front the great challenge for the government is to bring down inflation from the prevailing 8.6 per cent to the targeted 5 per cent. The Awami League could do not tackle inflation during their long tenure. Neither could the interim government that had a free hand in taking necessary measures to reverse the upward trend of inflation. Now inflation is staring at the BNP government as the most intractable problem. The party will be in power for the next five years and perhaps thereafter. It cannot afford to take a 'business as usual' attitude towards this deleterious malaise of the economy that has made millions helpless in meeting cost of living. First of all, the factors causing inflation has to be analysed. There are two main causes behind rise of inflation: (a) demand pull inflation and (b) cost-push inflation. There is no evidence that there has been a spurt in demand for goods and services, particularly for essential items. So, increase in demand has not been a contributory factor to extant inflation. That leaves cost-push factors as the prime forces causing and sustaining inflation. Among these are increase in prices of inputs, supply chain disruptions in international trade and rent- seeking by intermediaries in domestic supply chain. It is obvious that for the first two there is very little that the BNP government can do. But the BNP government has the power to break-down the network of domestic rent- seekers who add to the cost of goods at multiple points. This has been the most important factor in creating and sustaining cost-push inflation. It is unfortunate that a minister in the present government should be blatant enough to say that if chanda (subscription) is paid through mutual consent it should not be considered as extortion. The minister should have been reprimanded by the prime minister immediately. This sort of casual and indulgent attitude can only exacerbate the problem. If the present government is serious about addressing the problem of inflation it has to come down hard on the rent-seekers and their syndicates.
The present government has introduced family card on a limited basis in ten upazilas that will give Tk 2,500 to poor families. It is a good step but there should not be any hurry about introducing this. The programme has to be dovetailed with existing social safety network, pruning the irregularities that exist in the prevailing system. Secondly, since monetary payment add to inflationary pressure payment in kind may be considered as more desirable. This in turn will require a universal rationing system replacing the ad hoc distribution of food items by TCB and should cover both urban and rural areas.
The second problem in the economic sector that will engage the attention of the present government is restoring health to the ailing banking sector. The decision to restructure overdue loan by payment of one per cent instead of two, as announced recently, appears a continuation of the old policy of appeasing the defaulters. It does not augur well for the future. Neither is the appointment of a governor of Bangladesh Bank with no banking background appears encouraging. There was no need to replace the former governor post haste before adequate scouting for his successor was completed.
The nation, disillusioned with politics and governance in the past, is optimistic that this time around, something better will happen. That optimism must not be proved as pie in the sky.
Hasnat Abdul Hye
Published :
Mar 01, 2026 00:18
Updated :
Mar 01, 2026 00:18
Unarguably, the BNP-led government now in charge of the helm of state power is in the birth throes of new governance. Though no stranger in running a government in Bangladesh, BNP finds itself facing a new set of challenges- political, economic and geo-political. Much water has flown under the bridge between now and the last time they were in power. The experiences it had when last in power in 2001 are not very relevant at present and as such cannot be a guideline for decisions to be taken now.
Not only has the external context, politically and economically, changed, internally also the party finds itself in new circumstances. During the past twenty five years when BNP was out of power and marginalised and oppressed by an autocratic regime, it had to fight for its survival which saw its leaders and supporters active inside Bangladesh and abroad, particularly United Kingdom (UK). The chairman of the party being in confinement, the vice chairman of the party in self-exile in London had to lead the party through London-based supporters and the leaders and workers in Bangladesh. While this double entity helped to cohere the party together, the division created pressure points at two places claiming the attention of the leader. This was not a problem when BNP was in opposition. But now being in power, its leader must be under pressure from both centres for priority attention. Making both groups happy will not be a cake walk, not even with the appointments of a good number of advisors from both centres. Already some party stalwarts, kept out of the cabinet, have started grumbling. Keeping unity in the party will be a great challenge for the new chairman. If party cohesion is not ensured political instability may start from within. It will be naive to think that outsiders will not be willing to fish in troubled waters, stoking dissension and unrest. One way of keeping solidarity in the party may be giving ministerial portfolios to senior and junior members of the party by rotation with three years term for seniors and two years for juniors. This will have the additional advantage of allowing junior leaders to acquire ministerial experience which will stand in good stead for them as well for the party.
The BNP government committed to inclusive politics can be said to be in a dilemma as to what to do with Awami League. In the just concluded general election the party was not allowed to participate though it has not been banned. There was some justification for this as public sentiment across a broad swathe of electorate was still negative about the party that entrenched autocracy in the country. In the next election, public mood may be different and willing to see inclusive democracy. BNP government should allow Awami League to take part in the next general election making the leaders who have been punished and against whom criminal cases have been pending, both disqualified.
In domestic politics, the second challenge for the new government and BNP as the party in power will be to work out a modus operandi with Jamat-e-Islami and the National Citizen's Party (NCP). The immediate issue placing them at loggerheads is the implementation of July Charter. BNP is not against the implementation of the unanimously agreed provisions of the charter but differs on the mechanism. They believe that the reforms envisioned in the Charter can be brought about by the Jatyo Sangshad itself and there is no need for a second Chamber of parliament to do the same. Prominent constitutional experts in the country have opined in the same vein. BNP should sit together with Jamat and NCP and try to convince them of this method of implementing the agreed provisions of July Charter. Making unilateral declarations about the July Charter can only antagonise the opposition parties and widen the chasm between them and the BNP-led government. For the sake of political stability, this must not be allowed to happen. The nation has paid a heavy price in the past for allowing adversarial relation to metastasize between party in power and opposition.
On the economic front the great challenge for the government is to bring down inflation from the prevailing 8.6 per cent to the targeted 5 per cent. The Awami League could do not tackle inflation during their long tenure. Neither could the interim government that had a free hand in taking necessary measures to reverse the upward trend of inflation. Now inflation is staring at the BNP government as the most intractable problem. The party will be in power for the next five years and perhaps thereafter. It cannot afford to take a 'business as usual' attitude towards this deleterious malaise of the economy that has made millions helpless in meeting cost of living. First of all, the factors causing inflation has to be analysed. There are two main causes behind rise of inflation: (a) demand pull inflation and (b) cost-push inflation. There is no evidence that there has been a spurt in demand for goods and services, particularly for essential items. So, increase in demand has not been a contributory factor to extant inflation. That leaves cost-push factors as the prime forces causing and sustaining inflation. Among these are increase in prices of inputs, supply chain disruptions in international trade and rent- seeking by intermediaries in domestic supply chain. It is obvious that for the first two there is very little that the BNP government can do. But the BNP government has the power to break-down the network of domestic rent- seekers who add to the cost of goods at multiple points. This has been the most important factor in creating and sustaining cost-push inflation. It is unfortunate that a minister in the present government should be blatant enough to say that if chanda (subscription) is paid through mutual consent it should not be considered as extortion. The minister should have been reprimanded by the prime minister immediately. This sort of casual and indulgent attitude can only exacerbate the problem. If the present government is serious about addressing the problem of inflation it has to come down hard on the rent-seekers and their syndicates.
The present government has introduced family card on a limited basis in ten upazilas that will give Tk 2,500 to poor families. It is a good step but there should not be any hurry about introducing this. The programme has to be dovetailed with existing social safety network, pruning the irregularities that exist in the prevailing system. Secondly, since monetary payment add to inflationary pressure payment in kind may be considered as more desirable. This in turn will require a universal rationing system replacing the ad hoc distribution of food items by TCB and should cover both urban and rural areas.
The second problem in the economic sector that will engage the attention of the present government is restoring health to the ailing banking sector. The decision to restructure overdue loan by payment of one per cent instead of two, as announced recently, appears a continuation of the old policy of appeasing the defaulters. It does not augur well for the future. Neither is the appointment of a governor of Bangladesh Bank with no banking background appears encouraging. There was no need to replace the former governor post haste before adequate scouting for his successor was completed.
The nation, disillusioned with politics and governance in the past, is optimistic that this time around, something better will happen. That optimism must not be proved as pie in the sky.
