[🇵🇰] Pakistan General Elections -- 2024

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• Lahore set for showdown as Yasmin Rashid takes on three-time PM Nawaz
• JUI-F chief faces ex-NA speaker, PTI’s Gandapur in D.I. Khan
• No cakewalk for PTI leader Gohar Ali Khan in Buner
• Former ministers Nisar and Sarwar duke it out in Taxila
• 3-way contest between Fazl’s son, Salim Saifullah and fiery Marwat
• Stage set for clash of Qureshi-Gilani clans in Multan

WITH around 5,000 candidates contesting for 265 National Assembly seats today, things are expected to get quite chaotic when results start trickling in later today evening. With voters eager to find out if their favoured candidates are ahead and where their favourite party stands in the race to ‘win’ the general election, every single constituency will count.

Amidst the hundreds of contests today, there are some that will be more closely watched than others, for a variety of reasons. These could include areas which are battleground constituencies due to their swing potential, areas where two or more strong candidates are contesting, or areas which are likely to see heightened tensions due to the prominence or history of the people involved.

Given the contestants’ political mettle, these will not be easy fights for any of the candidates involved.

NA-10 Buner

Imran Khan’s successor, PTI leader Barrister Gohar Ali Khan is contesting against the former MNA from this constituency, Sher Akbar Khan, as well as Bakht Jahan Khan of the Jamaat-i-Islami (JI), who is a former speaker of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly. Sher Akbar won the last election on a PTI ticket with 58,317 votes, but is now with the PTI-Parliamentarian, a breakaway faction of the PTI led by former defence minister and KP chief minister Pervez Khattak. Though there are eight candidates in total for NA-10, a triangular contest is expected between these three.

Sher Akbar previously won this seat in the 2013 elections on a JI ticket, as well as in the 2002 election on a PPP-Sherpao ticket. Barrister Gohar previously contested the election from this constituency on a PPP ticket in 2008 and was the runner-up that year, with over 18,000 votes. Both Sher Akbar and Barrister Gohar had lost to ANP’s Abdul Mateen Khan that year. Likewise, Bakht Jahan had contested a by-election on this seat as an independent in 2008 but had lost with a margin of just 787 votes. The turnout in this constituency has been on the rise, from 27.2 per cent in 2008 to 35pc in 2013 and 41pc in 2018.

NA-41 Lakki Marwat

There are 39 candidates vying for NA-41, of which 33 are independents. Here, too, a triangular contest is expected between Asjad Mehmood of the JUI-F, Sher Afzal Marwat of the PTI, and former senator Salim Saifullah Khan, an independent. The area is considered a stronghold of the JUI-F, which has retained the seat since 2002 in all general elections except 2008, when Humayun Saifullah of the PML-Q had emerged victorious against Pir Zakori Sharif of the MMA.

 

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NA-44 D.I. Khan-I

The JUI-F chief is facing his two archrivals — Ali Amin Gandapur of the PTI, and former NA deputy speaker Faisal Karim Kundi of the PPP — in this terror-hit constituency.

The Maulana had previously won this seat in 2002 and 2013 but lost to Kundi in 2008 and to Gandapur in 2018 in what were largely one-sided contests. In both those elections, the Maulana could not get more than 46,000 votes, whereas Kundi and Gandapur managed to bag more than 81,000 each.

In 2018, Kundi had come in third with only 20,681 votes. However, this time around, Kundi ran an extensive campaign in the absence of the Maulana and Gandapur, who was not allowed to campaign. Maulana Fazlur Rehman, however, ended his campaign with a public meeting at DI Khan on Tuesday, which may improve his chances.

The constituency comprises Paharpur, Dera Ismail Khan tehsils, the local cantonment, Shorkot, Chehkan and Katla Syedaan areas, and has 391,882 voters, including 183,401 women. The turnout in the constituency in 2013 and 2018 was 56pc and 55pc, respectively, but this time, political experts are expecting a low turnout in the wake of recent terror attacks in the area.

NA-54 Rawalpindi-III

This constituency in Taxila is expected to witness a neck-and-neck contest between former interior minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan and former aviation minister Ghulam Sarwar Khan. In 2018, Chaudhry Nisar, after parting ways with the PML-N, had contested the polls as an independent but lost to his traditional rival, PTI’s Ghulam Sarwar, by a margin of nearly 23,000 votes. Nisar is once again in the race as an independent, whereas Ghulam Sarwar is representing Jahangir Tareen’s Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party (IPP).

Though Ghulam Sarwar may face the wrath of the voters because of his constantly changing loyalties, Nisar, too, is facing a tough time as he has been politically inactive for the past many years. The ‘N’, which had previously repeatedly criticised Sarwar over a controversial statement he made about PIA pilots while he was aviation minister, is now supporting him in an apparent move to block Nisar’s re-entry to the parliament.

In the 2018 elections, Ghulam Sarwar secured over 100,000 votes against the 65,767 votes received by Nisar. Sarwar, who won the election from two constituencies, had opted to retain the other constituency and his son, Mansoor Hayat Khan, was subsequently elected on a PTI ticket with 71,782 votes. Nisar did not contest the by-polls. Nisar has previously won the seat on a PML-N ticket in the 2002, 2008 and 2013 elections. A new entrant, Azra Masood, is contesting as PTI’s nominee.

NA-71 Sialkot-II

Firebrand PML-N stalwart Khwaja Muhammad Asif has won all six previous general elections from here since 1993. However, the 2018 election was the toughest of his political life, when he only managed to defeat his arch-rival, Usman Dar of the PTI, by the closest of margins.

This time, the PML-N leader is facing Dar’s mother, Rehana Imtiaz Dar. She jumped into the political arena after her son’s decision to quit politics and denounce the May 9 incidents in a press conference. Rehana has been a prominent feature on mainstream and social media for the past many months because of her angry challenges to Kh Asif, who recently served her a legal notice for ‘damaging his repute’.

NA-122 Lahore-VI

There are 21 candidates, including 16 independents, in this Lahore constituency, but the main contest is expected to be between PML-N loyalist and former railways minister Khawaja Saad Rafique and PTI-backed lawyer and former Punjab governor Sardar Latif Khosa. The PPP has not fielded a candidate here. Khosa, who was once considered a close aide of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, joined the PTI only three months ago when the PPP suspended his membership for representing Imran Khan without seeking prior permission from the party’s leadership.

Saad Rafique had been an MNA since 2002 and had won all previous elections comfortably, except in 2018, when he lost to PTI founder Imran Khan by a tiny margin. When Mr Khan vacated this seat, Mr Rafique won it in a by-election after defeating Humayun Akhtar Khan. In 2008, Mr Rafique had bagged the seat in a one-sided contest against the PPP’s Naveed Chaudhry, whereas in 2013, he defeated the PTI’s Hamid Khan by securing more than 123,000 votes.

NA-130 Lahore-XIV

Desiring to become prime minister for a fourth time, the PML-N’s supreme leader, Nawaz Sharif, is contesting here against the PTI’s jailed woman leader and former Punjab health minister, Dr Yasmin Rashid. Observers believe that a heated electoral battle can be expected for this seat. Dr Rashid is facing a court trial in connection with the May 9 incidents and has been unable to run her election campaign. She has received widespread commendation, even from some of her rivals, for standing firm with the PTI despite a brutal crackdown against her party and colleagues.

In 2018, Dr Rashid lost the election to the PML-N’s Waheed Alam Khan despite managing to bag over 105,000 votes. She was later elected to the Punjab Assembly on a reserved seat for women. On the other hand, Mr Sharif, who could not take part in the 2018 elections due to his conviction in the Panama Papers case, is hoping for a political comeback after getting a clean chit from the courts.

NA-151 Multan-IV

Interesting contests between members of the powerful Qureshi and Gilani families are expected in the City of Saints.

In NA-151, Syed Ali Musa Gilani and Meher Bano Qureshi, the children of two prominent politicians and traditional rivals, are facing each other. Ali Musa is the son of former prime minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani, whereas Meherbano is the daughter of PTI vice-chairman and former foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi. The senior Gilani is contesting from another constituency in Multan.

Meher Bano had submitted her papers as a covering candidate in anticipation of her father’s disqualification. Her apprehensions came true when the ECP disqualified Qureshi from contesting the polls after his conviction with Imran Khan in the cypher case.

The Qureshi family has been winning this seat for the past four decades despite its changing loyalties, which indicates that it has a solid vote bank and a large number of loyalists in the area. However, this time, the contest has become interesting because, in a by-election held in October last year, Ali Musa defeated Meher Bano with a margin of some 20,000 votes. This time, however, Meherbano is expecting a significant sympathy vote because of her father’s conviction.

NA-185 Dera Ghazi Khan-II

The electoral race in this tribal constituency features PTI-backed Zartaj Gul, the PPP’s Dost Muhammad Khosa, and PML-N-backed independent Mahmood Qadir Leghari. A former chief minister of Punjab, Dost Muhammad Khosa, is considered the favourite due to his status as a tribal chief. Zartaj Gul was earlier not available to campaign and started canvassing just this week. However, in 2018, Zartaj Gul defeated the PML-N’s Sardar Awais Leghari here with a margin of more than 25,000 votes. Dost Khosa had contested those polls as an independent and stood third, bagging 31,703 votes.

 

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NA-241 Karachi South-III

Dr Farooq Sattar of the MQM-P is up against the PTI’s Karachi president, Khurram Sher Zaman, and the PPP’s Mirza Ikhtiyar Baig for NA-241. In 2018, Dr Farooq Sattar contested the election in a Karachi East constituency but lost to the late Dr Aamir Liaquat Hussain, who contested on behalf of the PTI. Khurram Sher Zaman had won a provincial seat from Karachi in 2018 and is contesting an NA election for the first time.

Dr Sattar is also a candidate for Karachi’s NA-244, where another former PTI MNA, Aftab Jahangir, won in 2018.

NA-261 Surab-cum-Kalat-cum-Mastung

An interesting triangular contest is expected between the political heavyweights in this constituency. Sardar Sanaullah Zehri is in the race, this time on a PPP ticket, against the Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M) chief Sardar Akhtar Mengal, and JUI-F General Secretary Maulana Abdul Ghafoor Haidri.

Once a close confidant of Nawaz Sharif and Sardar of the Zehri tribe, Sanaullah served as chief minister of Balochistan from Dec 2015 to Dec 2017. He resigned from the office to avoid a vote of no confidence and joined the PPP in August 2021 after developing differences with his party’s leadership.

In 2018, Sanaullah could only secure 7,152 votes and came in fifth position on this seat, which was won by Syed Mehmood Shah of the JUI-F with 26,711 votes. Sanaullah had been a runner-up in 2008 when the seat was won by Ayatullah Durrani of the PPP.

On the other hand, Sardar Akhtar Mengal won an NA seat in 2018 from Khuzdar with over 23,000 votes, defeating Khalid Bizenjo of the BAP. The same year, however, he had lost the election for the Lasbela-cum-Gawadar constituency to an independent, Aslam Bhootani.

Maulana Abdul Ghafoor Haideri emerged victorious in this constituency in the 2002 elections and was the runner-up in the 2013 elections. However, he did not take part in the 2018 elections. He was elected MNA from Kalat for the first time in 1993.

NA-263 Quetta-II

There are a record 46 candidates, including 27 independents, in NA-263. Because so many political bigwigs are in the running, it is difficult to make predictions about this constituency.

PkMAP chief Mehmood Khan Achakzai, who lost the 2018 elections from two different constituencies in Balochistan, is up against Rubina Irfan of the BAP, Rozi Khan Kakar of the PPP, and Haji Lashkari Raisani, who is contesting the polls as an independent. This time, Achakzai has secured the backing of the JUI-F in return for supporting Maulana Fazlur Rehman in Pishin.

Lashkari Raisani is the younger brother of former Balochistan chief minister Nawab Aslam Raisani. He resigned as PPP Balochistan president in April 2012 and joined the PML-N in March 2013. He has previously served as a provincial minister in the Balochistan cabinet and also as a senator during a PPP-led government in the centre. In 2018, he contested the elections for an NA seat from Quetta on a BNP ticket but lost to the PTI’s Qasim Khan Suri. Mr Raisani later challenged the results on the basis of the large number of votes that were rejected.

Mr Suri, who went on to become deputy speaker of the NA, remained a lawmaker till his resignation because the court never decided the petition.

Rubina Irfan was an MNA in the last assembly on a reserved seat but has also served as a senator on the PML-Q ticket. Rozi Kakar served as a PPP senator from 2012 to 2018.

 

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Selling change​

Does Imran Khan’s election campaign strategy mirror Donald Trump’s?

TALHA BIN HAMID
“This election will decide whether we are ruled by a corrupt political class. You’re seeing what’s happening. Everybody’s watching. Or whether we are ruled by the people. We’re going to be ruled by the people... That is going to be the choice. A failed political establishment has delivered nothing but poverty, nothing but problems, nothing but losses.”
Do you remember when Imran Khan spoke those words? If you have trouble remembering the precise moment, you are not alone. Khan used these phrases and ideas throughout the 2018 election campaign, ultimately leading his party – and himself – to power.

But look again. This is not Khan at all. This is Donald Trump, November 7, 2016. Surprised?

“Change” (or, more popularly, tabdeeli) has been PTI’s mantra for the past six years. Khan’s personal charm, along with slick and professional media campaigns, have kept this idea alive and well with the public.

The media onslaught has been smart and sophisticated. From ever-catchier jingles, to iconic graphic design work, to the ‘branding’ of each initiative taken by the party (for example, the wheel jam strike in 2014 had the tagline “Shutdown to rebuild”), to attractive election posters with stylised portraits, PTI’s marketing campaign has consistently been savvy and dynamic.

The promise was and remains bold: PTI would wipe the slate clean of the corrupt ways of political administration and bring real change. The biggest USP of the PTI remains this: neither the party nor the leader have ever been in power on a national level. This and this alone, has helped paper over a lot of inconsistencies between the message and reality.

Moreover, thanks to the impact of the election campaign, PTI fans still believe. Even those who did not necessarily align themselves with PTI politically are cautiously hopeful. Khan’s strong and consistent campaign has been relentless and on-brand without fail. The campaign has been run like a well-oiled machine with an obvious professional touch that has elevated it above those by other parties; the ideals of governance laid down are clear and unambiguous.

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Returning for a moment to Trump, his campaign strategy was focused on two catchphrases: “Make America Great Again” and “Draining the Swamp”. The first message was that US was not functioning to its peak potential due to policies adopted by Trump’s predecessors and the political administration was a ‘swamp’ riddled by a lack of transparency and corruption. It seems that the playbook has been adapted by the PTI.​

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Over time, with the evolution of PTI’s politics, the message has shifted in tone slightly. The party focused on enlisting fresh, untested faces in the 2013 elections, reinforcing the brand identity. However, in the intervening five years, two key developments in the political climate took place.

Firstly, PTI held a government in KP and its performance there came under scrutiny. Being part of the political machine for five years meant that PTI could no longer rely on its ‘fresh and untested’ status and had to answer for its governance. Secondly, as the party sensed a greater chance of forming the government on a national level, it adopted strategies that it once scoffed: enlisting tried and not necessarily true ‘electables’ from other parties, and banking on social infrastructure development in KP. To counter that, the party doubled down on the two messages: the persona of Khan himself and its governance record in KP.

The narrative largely worked. With its rivals weakened due to a variety of internal and external factors, PTI strategised its campaign, focusing on a socio-economic agenda. The presence of Asad Umer in its ranks helped on that front.

Now, the elections are over and PTI fans and neutral observers alike now eagerly wait for the promised ‘change’. The task at hand now is to convince the public that ‘good enough’ is not good enough.

Returning for a moment to Trump, his campaign strategy was focused on two catchphrases: “Make America Great Again” and “Draining the Swamp”. The first message was that US was not functioning to its peak potential due to policies adopted by Trump’s predecessors and the political administration was a ‘swamp’ riddled by a lack of transparency and corruption. It seems that the playbook has been adapted by the PTI.

As the realities of governing a country materialise, the PTI’s media strategy remains focused on the future. The message is, "Wait and see, we can deliver.". While the strategy is working for now, it is high time that the ideals are put into practice, for the betterment of the party and for the betterment of the country.

 

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PTI candidates in Islamabad spend poll eve seeking bail, activists’ release​

IHC CJ grants bail to Amir Mughal; Shuaib Shaheen and Muhammad Ali Bukhari successfully seek release of their supporters.

 

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Elections were 100 pc transparent and peaceful: CEC​

Updated Feb 08, 18:11
Chief Election Commissioner Sikandar Sultan Raja said today's electoral process was "100 per cent transparent and peaceful" as political parties, and human rights organisations decried the unexpected suspension of cellular and internet services.

Addressing the media after the polling time concluded, the CEC stated that the polling process continued without any interruptions. "No citizen was prevented from casting their vote," he added.

"Where connectivity is an issue, the concerned Presiding Officer will personally go to the office of the concerned Returning Officer and issue Form 45," Raja stated.

He said once uploaded in EMS, Form 45 will automatically be received wherever services are restored.

Addressing complaints about voting process delays in some polling stations, the election commissioner said time can be extended till 2 PM on the day if it is asked to be extended.

"Timing was extended at three polling stations in Gujrat on the concerned ROs requests," he said.

 

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PTI leader writes letter to CEC on internet suspension​

Updated Feb 08, 16:58
Senior leader of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Senator Syed Ali Zafar has written a letter to the chief election commissioner (CEC) on Thursday, expressing concern over the suspension of internet and mobile phone services across the country on election day.

According to a statement issued by PTI’s Central Media Department, Ali Zafar, also a PTI senator, stated that the nationwide suspension of mobile phone and internet services on the day of the elections is causing severe and significant damage to Pakistan.

He slammed as “unacceptable” the CEC’s statement in which he dissociated the suspension of internet and mobile phone services from the conduct of free and fair elections.

Senator Zafar reiterated that the Constitution of Pakistan mandates the CEC to ensure the free and fair conduct of elections, and this includes the responsibility for the availability of internet and mobile phone services.

According to the Constitution, the Election Commission of Pakistan has the authority to instruct the government to restore mobile and internet services, Senator Zafar highlighted. He urged immediate action to ensure the restoration of internet and mobile phone services, highlighting the demand on behalf of PTI and the people of Pakistan.

 

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Amnesty ‘alarmed’ by pre-polls unrest in Pakistan​

Feb 07, 2024

Body slams targeted violence as a blatant infringement on democratic process