[🇦🇫] Pakistan watches with caution as old ally Taliban gets closer to India

[Vsdoc]

Yea no. Thats why it is in Iranian interests too, to not let the formation of an independent Balochistan happen ( not like it will considering the demographics ). Sistan Baluchistan itself is a hotbed of terrorism inside Iran too.

From what I understand, the ones on the Iran side are a beleaguered and largely crushed lot. More caveman smugglers and dacoits than what your army is facing.

No one can rightly compare the scale (of the insurgency) on both sides.

I was unaware that Balochistan (yours) is majority Pashtun.

If so, it makes India's future moves crystal clear.

This may well be oil and water separating, as they always have, and will, along the civilizational cleave line of the Indus.

 

[steppeWolff]

From what I understand, the ones on the Iran side are a beleaguered and largely crushed lot. More caveman smugglers and dacoits than what your army is facing.

No one can rightly compare the scale (of the insurgency) on both sides.

I was unaware that Balochistan (yours) is majority Pashtun.

If so, it makes India's future moves crystal clear.

This may well be oil and water separating, as they always have, and will, along the civilizational cleave line of the Indus.

The insurgency in Iranian Sistan-Balochistan region is indeed smaller in scale, but that doesn’t make it insignificant. Jundullah, Jaish alAdl, and other groups have carried out high-profile attacks (e.g the 2019 Zahedan suicide bombing, the 2022 Rask police station assault). The ‘caveman smugglers’ narrative is wrong as it downplays Tehran’s own counterterrorism operations.
Why would IRGC deploy brigades to the region if the threat were trivial? The difference is of scale.Pakistan has much larger Baloch population than Iran and India’s proxy war exacerbates it.

And Balochistan is majority Pashtun but a census would never show that cause of obvious political dynamics. Pashtuns are concentrated in Quetta, Pishin, Zhob, and Loralai Division ( The Northern Balochistan ). Brahuis comprise the Kalat Division and Naushki district ( Central Balochistan ). Rest are Baloch territories.

But your broader point about ‘oil and water separating’ is flawed. The ‘civilizational cleave line of the Indus’ is a romanticized fiction. Punjabis, Sindhis, and Pashtuns are deeply integrated into Pakistan’s polity. Even if India exploits ethnic tensions (as it does in Balochistan), Pakistan’s state structure and military cohesion are far more resilient than 1971 redux fantasies.

Punjab itself has a heavy pashtun population. Southern Punjabis ( Seraikis ), they themselves are Baloch who speak a dialect of Punjabi. And they constitute entire southern half of Punjab, from Multan to RYK. Half of Sindh is populated by Baloch tribes who got Sindhified. Zardari Family for example. Karachi has the biggest Pashtun population in planet, has Pashtun MNAs, MPAs. There's hundreds of years of and recent, successful examples of integration.

If India’s plan is to bank on Pashtun Baloch divides, it’s recycling a failed strategy. The TTP’s anti Pakistan insurgency got zero traction in KPK because Pashtuns reject foreign backed destabilization. Pashtun Lashkars of FATA fought a brutal war against TTP, Chechens and Uzbeks, Uyghurs, Al Qaeda etc for an entire decade. They want nothing to do with India or Afghanistan. Just see the heavily armed rallies Pashtuns led recently during Indo Pak conflict. And let’s not pretend Delhi’s Balochistan meddling (e.g., Kulbhushan Jadhav) has yielded anything but embarrassment.

And you’re right that Iran has crushed much of its Baloch insurgency; but that’s precisely why it cooperates with Pakistan on border security. Neither of us wants an independent Balochistan. India’s fantasy of balkanizing Pakistan along ethnic lines is a geopolitical pipe dream. The real ‘civilizational cleave’ is between states that fuel separatism (India) and those that crush it (Iran, Pakistan).

 

[Vsdoc]

The insurgency in Iranian Sistan-Balochistan region is indeed smaller in scale, but that doesn’t make it insignificant. Jundullah, Jaish alAdl, and other groups have carried out high-profile attacks (e.g the 2019 Zahedan suicide bombing, the 2022 Rask police station assault). The ‘caveman smugglers’ narrative is wrong as it downplays Tehran’s own counterterrorism operations.
Why would IRGC deploy brigades to the region if the threat were trivial? The difference is of scale.Pakistan has much larger Baloch population than Iran and India’s proxy war exacerbates it.

And Balochistan is majority Pashtun but a census would never show that cause of obvious political dynamics. Pashtuns are concentrated in Quetta, Pishin, Zhob, and Loralai Division ( The Northern Balochistan ). Brahuis comprise the Kalat Division and Naushki district ( Central Balochistan ). Rest are Baloch territories.

But your broader point about ‘oil and water separating’ is flawed. The ‘civilizational cleave line of the Indus’ is a romanticized fiction. Punjabis, Sindhis, and Pashtuns are deeply integrated into Pakistan’s polity. Even if India exploits ethnic tensions (as it does in Balochistan), Pakistan’s state structure and military cohesion are far more resilient than 1971 redux fantasies.

Punjab itself has a heavy pashtun population. Southern Punjabis ( Seraikis ), they themselves are Baloch who speak a dialect of Punjabi. And they constitute entire southern half of Punjab, from Multan to RYK. Half of Sindh is populated by Baloch tribes who got Sindhified. Zardari Family for example. Karachi has the biggest Pashtun population in planet, has Pashtun MNAs, MPAs. There's hundreds of years of and recent, successful examples of integration.

If India’s plan is to bank on Pashtun Baloch divides, it’s recycling a failed strategy. The TTP’s anti Pakistan insurgency got zero traction in KPK because Pashtuns reject foreign backed destabilization. Pashtun Lashkars of FATA fought a brutal war against TTP, Chechens and Uzbeks, Uyghurs, Al Qaeda etc for an entire decade. They want nothing to do with India or Afghanistan. Just see the heavily armed rallies Pashtuns led recently during Indo Pak conflict. And let’s not pretend Delhi’s Balochistan meddling (e.g., Kulbhushan Jadhav) has yielded anything but embarrassment.

And you’re right that Iran has crushed much of its Baloch insurgency; but that’s precisely why it cooperates with Pakistan on border security. Neither of us wants an independent Balochistan. India’s fantasy of balkanizing Pakistan along ethnic lines is a geopolitical pipe dream. The real ‘civilizational cleave’ is between states that fuel separatism (India) and those that crush it (Iran, Pakistan).

Balochistan separating from Pakistan is of no use to India.

Its a huge loss to Pakistan.

Now rethink what India wants.

 

[Lulldapull]

What about Iranian side of Balochistan? Will that part also be recognised as a separate nation?

@Vsdoc @Lulldapull

Iranis will crush any ethnic supremacy nonsense.

Its considered extreme budtameezi to put down any ethnicity or religion or parrosi in Iran.

Lot of Pakistanis living/ working in Iran now on work visa.

Nobody even asks k aap sunni ho shia ho ya Christy X-Tian ho....that is considered very rude.

 

[Lulldapull]

Why do you want to finger Iran?

Cuz shes dalit and wants her kind to infiltrate.......like a kaafir dalit virus inside Iran.

India/ Pak ka haal dekh lo aaj......



When yous quit caring on who's comin in no?

Batten down da hatches doc, erect walls with barbed wire fences and thousand mile 20 m wide x 10m deep trenches.......sentry gun AI turrets with moats and security drones and strong points every km on da wall.......ye karna purr ra hae ab Iran ko, along with mass deportations.

Vurna Iran gya!........just like us........

Ager khuda na khaasta dalit Iran main ghunsa doc......he will destroy Iran just like da subcontinent!

Doosri taraf Irani consider arbi as biological dushman.......like nazi kutter cultural hate.....

You know what I'm saying doc.......east n west n north teeno block to hain.....but not impregnable. And the emptiness of the open country no?......serious shortage of manpower.

Not yet sealed!.....extreme work needs to be still done to completely seal it off......like zero leakage.

 

[Vsdoc]

Cuz shes dalit and wants her kind to infiltrate.......like a kaafir dalit virus inside Iran.

India/ Pak ka haal dekh lo aaj......



When yous quit caring on who's comin in no?

Batten down da hatches doc, erect walls with barbed wire fences and thousand mile 20 m wide x 10m deep trenches.......sentry gun AI turrets with moats and security drones and strong points every km on da wall.......ye karna purr ra hae ab Iran ko, along with mass deportations.

Vurna Iran gya!........just like us........

Ager khuda na khaasta dalit Iran main ghunsa doc......he will destroy Iran just like da subcontinent!

Doosri taraf Irani consider arbi as biological dushman.......like nazi kutter cultural hate.....

You know what I'm saying doc.......east n west n north teeno block to hain.....but not impregnable. And the emptiness of the open country no?......serious shortage of manpower.

Not yet sealed!.....extreme work needs to be still done to completely seal it off......like zero leakage.

Iranis of today look at Arabs as kattar dushman.

But honestly Arabs have historically been very low on the empire totem of Persia where we had peoples from Europe extending all the way to China.

Not unlike how they look at their Sistan cavemen.