Afghan Defense
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Date of Event:
Jul 13, 2025
Russia's recognition strategy in Afghanistan
Punam Shahriar Nirjhar
Published :
Jul 12, 2025 22:44
Updated :
Jul 12, 2025 22:44
A view shows the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan flag at the Afghan embassy, after Russia became the first country to recognise the Taliban government in Afghanistan, in Moscow, Russia July 4, 2025. Photo : REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov
The Taliban takeover of the capital Kabul in August 2021 and the consequent proclamation of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan have posed a serious dilemma to the international community. The recognition of a new government is one of the most politically sensitive actions in international affairs that comes with legal, political and moral responsibilities. Russia, however, has recognised the Taliban officially, a move seemingly demonstrating the mixture of geopolitical thinking and regional desires and that is a challenge to the internationally adopted order led by the West. However, this step does not come without complications, especially because it sets the stage for a possible conflict of interests with another regional power, Turkey, which is seeking its opportunities in Central Asia.
According to international law, the recognition of a government is an act of choice by the other states and it normally depends on whether or not the new regime has de facto control over the territory and the population. There is no single universally accepted doctrine of recognition in international law. Some thought previously that governments that came to power through force were unacceptable. Doctrines such as the Tobar Doctrine argued that governments coming to power by force were unacceptable, while others, like the Estrada Doctrine, held that the manner of taking power should not affect diplomatic recognition. In the contemporary world, nations primarily consider the issues of stability of a new government, commitment to international law, human rights, and commitment to previous treaties. The Stimson Doctrine further states that military takeover of power or land should not be recognised in case a group believes in force and this fits well in the case of the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Russia's decision to engage with the Taliban is not about promoting their ideology, but about advancing its own national interests. Moscow would like to guarantee stability in the region since breakdown in Afghanistan would spread extremism to Central Asia and Muslim regions of Russia. Although the Taliban is classified as a terrorist organisation in Russia, it is still viewed as the most reasonable choice when it comes to the stability and holding off even greater dangers such as ISIS-K. Russia also seeks to respond to the Western influences and fill the power emptiness created by U.S. and NATO powers and demonstrate that it can be a powerful local force as well. The recognition of the Taliban will also help Russia to pursue its objective of a multipolar world. The country has natural resources both economically and infrastructure so it can form business opportunities in Afghanistan. Russian companies might gain a competitive advantage by identifying opportunities early. All in all, the move of Russia is pragmatic and not ideological.
In a legal sense, Russia is leaning more to the concept of effective control as opposed to everything else. It is essentially applying the Estrada doctrine that what is out there is that the Taliban are the ones in control and it will be more feasible to bargain with them rather than act and pretend that it is otherwise. By so doing, Russia is selectively interpreting international law to accommodate its geopolitical interests, at the expense of normative issues of human rights and the bloodshed used by the Taliban to come to power.
Pan-Turkic unity and soft power are two channels that Turkey is using to strengthen its influence in Central Asia including Afghanistan as a strategic region and in Turkic communities. Russia considers that Turkey as a state has ambitions that threaten its dominance in the region. The two nations are at variance and can end up in conflict over power in Afghanistan. The Taliban is recognised by Russia to prevent the entry of Turkey and Turkey might support the other groups. This sets the stage for the prospect of proxy warfare in Afghanistan.
Russia's recognition of the Taliban is neither a simple legal procedure nor a purely rational political act; rather, it is driven by a complex interplay of factors, including the imperative to protect its southern borders, limit Western influence, and strengthen its regional power. This move fundamentally challenges the normal provisions of international law, as Russia's interest lies not in legal or moral considerations, but purely in who controls Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Turkey also harbors ambitions for influence in Afghanistan, particularly stemming from its Pan-Turkic aspirations. At this juncture, Russia and Turkey may find themselves in direct competition for influence, a dynamic that could potentially lead to increased tension and instability. The outcome of their rivalry could significantly shape the future of Afghanistan and, by extension, the broader Central and South Asian region."
The writer is the General Secretary of Srijonbritto Pathchokro and Sub-Executive, East West University Debating Club.
Punam Shahriar Nirjhar
Published :
Jul 12, 2025 22:44
Updated :
Jul 12, 2025 22:44
A view shows the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan flag at the Afghan embassy, after Russia became the first country to recognise the Taliban government in Afghanistan, in Moscow, Russia July 4, 2025. Photo : REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov
The Taliban takeover of the capital Kabul in August 2021 and the consequent proclamation of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan have posed a serious dilemma to the international community. The recognition of a new government is one of the most politically sensitive actions in international affairs that comes with legal, political and moral responsibilities. Russia, however, has recognised the Taliban officially, a move seemingly demonstrating the mixture of geopolitical thinking and regional desires and that is a challenge to the internationally adopted order led by the West. However, this step does not come without complications, especially because it sets the stage for a possible conflict of interests with another regional power, Turkey, which is seeking its opportunities in Central Asia.
According to international law, the recognition of a government is an act of choice by the other states and it normally depends on whether or not the new regime has de facto control over the territory and the population. There is no single universally accepted doctrine of recognition in international law. Some thought previously that governments that came to power through force were unacceptable. Doctrines such as the Tobar Doctrine argued that governments coming to power by force were unacceptable, while others, like the Estrada Doctrine, held that the manner of taking power should not affect diplomatic recognition. In the contemporary world, nations primarily consider the issues of stability of a new government, commitment to international law, human rights, and commitment to previous treaties. The Stimson Doctrine further states that military takeover of power or land should not be recognised in case a group believes in force and this fits well in the case of the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Russia's decision to engage with the Taliban is not about promoting their ideology, but about advancing its own national interests. Moscow would like to guarantee stability in the region since breakdown in Afghanistan would spread extremism to Central Asia and Muslim regions of Russia. Although the Taliban is classified as a terrorist organisation in Russia, it is still viewed as the most reasonable choice when it comes to the stability and holding off even greater dangers such as ISIS-K. Russia also seeks to respond to the Western influences and fill the power emptiness created by U.S. and NATO powers and demonstrate that it can be a powerful local force as well. The recognition of the Taliban will also help Russia to pursue its objective of a multipolar world. The country has natural resources both economically and infrastructure so it can form business opportunities in Afghanistan. Russian companies might gain a competitive advantage by identifying opportunities early. All in all, the move of Russia is pragmatic and not ideological.
In a legal sense, Russia is leaning more to the concept of effective control as opposed to everything else. It is essentially applying the Estrada doctrine that what is out there is that the Taliban are the ones in control and it will be more feasible to bargain with them rather than act and pretend that it is otherwise. By so doing, Russia is selectively interpreting international law to accommodate its geopolitical interests, at the expense of normative issues of human rights and the bloodshed used by the Taliban to come to power.
Pan-Turkic unity and soft power are two channels that Turkey is using to strengthen its influence in Central Asia including Afghanistan as a strategic region and in Turkic communities. Russia considers that Turkey as a state has ambitions that threaten its dominance in the region. The two nations are at variance and can end up in conflict over power in Afghanistan. The Taliban is recognised by Russia to prevent the entry of Turkey and Turkey might support the other groups. This sets the stage for the prospect of proxy warfare in Afghanistan.
Russia's recognition of the Taliban is neither a simple legal procedure nor a purely rational political act; rather, it is driven by a complex interplay of factors, including the imperative to protect its southern borders, limit Western influence, and strengthen its regional power. This move fundamentally challenges the normal provisions of international law, as Russia's interest lies not in legal or moral considerations, but purely in who controls Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Turkey also harbors ambitions for influence in Afghanistan, particularly stemming from its Pan-Turkic aspirations. At this juncture, Russia and Turkey may find themselves in direct competition for influence, a dynamic that could potentially lead to increased tension and instability. The outcome of their rivalry could significantly shape the future of Afghanistan and, by extension, the broader Central and South Asian region."
The writer is the General Secretary of Srijonbritto Pathchokro and Sub-Executive, East West University Debating Club.
