War Archive 2022 02/24 Monitoring Russian and Ukraine War.

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[Saif]

Russia fires 100 drones at Ukraine

Russia launched more than a hundred drones at Ukraine overnight and early Friday, killing one person and wounding eight others, officials said.

www.newagebd.net

Russia fires 100 drones at Ukraine
Agence France-Presse . Kyiv, Ukraine 30 November, 2024, 00:15

A woman walks next to a damaged hospital following a Russian drone attack in Kyiv, on Friday, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. | AFP photo

Russia launched more than a hundred drones at Ukraine overnight and early Friday, killing one person and wounding eight others, officials said.

The nearly three-year war has seen a sharp escalation in recent days, with Moscow pummelling Ukraine’s energy infrastructure ahead of the winter.

Friday’s drone barrage came a day after Russia launched around 90 missiles on the war-torn country, cutting power to over a million people.

Moscow fired 132 drones overnight, of which ‘88 drones were shot down’ and ‘41 were lost, presumably due to defence countermeasures’, Ukraine’s air force said.

Air defences shot down drones over a dozen regions, while falling debris damaged a health care clinic in the capital Kyiv, according to the local mayor.

A drone attack killed a woman in the southern city of Kherson, the head of the local military administration Roman Mrochko said.

At least two regions suffered power cuts on Friday, Ukrainian electricity operator Ukrenergo said.

‘Emergency repair works are on-going around the clock. By the end of the day, the power company plans to restore power to the de-energised customers in Kherson and Mykolaiv regions,’ it said.

The latest strikes come as Ukraine enters a tough winter, with Russian forces stepping up aerial attacks and advancing on the eastern front.

Moscow said Friday it had seized the village of Rozdolne in the southern part of Ukraine’s Donbas region, where it has made a string of territorial gains in recent months.

Russia downed 47 attack drones fired overnight by Ukraine, mainly targeting the Rostov border region where a major fire broke out at an industrial site, authorities said.

Meanwhile, Kyiv said Russian authorities returned over 500 bodies of Ukrainian soldiers killed in combat, with most having died in the eastern Donetsk region.

Russia and Ukraine have been exchanging bodies and prisoners of war since the first months of the conflict — with casualties estimated to be high on both sides.

‘As a result of repatriation activities, the bodies of 502 fallen defenders were returned to territory controlled by the government of Ukraine,’ Kyiv’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War said on social media.

The centre said that 397 of the bodies were returned from the embattled Donetsk region, where fighting is most intense.

It said 24 were returned from the eastern Lugansk region and 64 from the southern Zaporizhzhia area, while 17 were handed back from morgues on Russian territory.

‘We are grateful for the assistance of the International Committee of the Red Cross,’ Kyiv’s centre said.

It said the bodies will be taken for forensic medical examination and that ‘together with the expert institutions, the deceased will be identified as soon as possible.’

Russia, for its part, does not announce the return of its bodies.​

 

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[Saif]

Nuclear attack unlikely despite Putin's warnings, US intelligence says

The US decision to allow Ukraine to fire American weapons deeper into Russia has not increased the risk of a nuclear attack, which is unlikely, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's increasingly bellicose statements, five sources familiar with US intelligence told Reuters. But Russia is likel

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Nuclear attack unlikely despite Putin's warnings, US intelligence says
Published :
Nov 28, 2024 12:20
Updated :
Nov 28, 2024 12:20

Russian President Vladimir Putin conducts an exercise of Russia's strategic nuclear deterrence forces to train actions of officials on operating nuclear weapons with practical launches of ballistic and cruise missiles, via video link at the Kremlin, in Moscow, Russia October 29, 2024. Sputnik via REUTERS

The US decision to allow Ukraine to fire American weapons deeper into Russia has not increased the risk of a nuclear attack, which is unlikely, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's increasingly bellicose statements, five sources familiar with US intelligence told Reuters.

But Russia is likely to expand a campaign of sabotage against European targets to increase pressure on the West over its support for Kyiv, said two senior officials, a lawmaker and two congressional aides briefed on the matter.

A series of intelligence assessments over the past seven months have concluded nuclear escalation was unlikely to result from a decision to loosen restrictions on Ukraine's use of US weapons. That view has not changed following President Joe Biden's changed US stance this month on weapons, said the sources, who were granted anonymity to speak freely about sensitive intelligence.

"The assessments were consistent: The ATACMs weren’t going to change Russia’s nuclear calculus," said one congressional aide briefed on the intelligence, referring to American missiles with a range of up to 190 miles (306 km).

Russia's launch of a new ballistic missile last week, which analysts say was meant as a warning to Washington and its European allies, has not changed that conclusion.

One of the five US officials said while Washington assessed that Russia would not seek to escalate with its nuclear forces, it would try to match what it views as US escalation. The official said fielding the new missile was part of that effort.

US officials said the intelligence has helped guide an often divisive debate over recent months inside Biden's administration about whether Washington loosening restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American weapons was worth the risk of angering Putin.

Officials initially resisted such a move, citing escalation concerns and uncertainty over how Putin would respond. Some of those officials, including in the White House, the Pentagon and the State Department, feared lethal retaliation on US military and diplomatic personnel and attacks on NATO allies.

Others were specifically worried about nuclear escalation. Biden changed his mind because of North Korea's entry into the war before the US presidential election, US officials have said.

Some officials now believe the escalation concerns, including the nuclear fears, were overblown but stress that the overall situation in Ukraine remains dangerous and that nuclear escalation is not out of the question. Russia's ability to find other covert ways of retaliating against the West remains a worry.

“Russia's hybrid response is a concern,” said Angela Stent, director of Eurasian, Russian and East European studies at Georgetown University, referring to Russia’s sabotage in Europe.

“The chance of escalation was never not there. The concern now is greater.”

The White House and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.

The Kremlin did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the intelligence assessments.

REACTION AND COUNTER-REACTION

Since August, when Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region, Moscow and Kyiv have been locked in a cycle of escalating moves and counter-moves.

Russia has enlisted help from North Korea, which sent between 11,000 and 12,000 soldiers to help its war effort, according to the United States.

The same day as Ukraine's first strike under the relaxed US policy, Russia changed its nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike.

Fear of nuclear escalation has been a factor in US officials' thinking since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022. CIA Director William Burns has said there was a real risk in late 2022 that Russia could use nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

Even so, the White House moved forward with Ukraine aid, sending billions of dollars' worth of military assistance.

The concerns faded for some officials as Putin did not act on his threats but remained central to how many in the administration weighed decisions on how the US should support Kyiv.

In May, the White House allowed Ukraine to use American missiles in limited circumstances to strike across the border but not deep inside Russia, citing risk of escalation by Moscow, marginal tactical benefit and a limited supply of ATACMs.

One of the intelligence assessments from early summer, drawn up at the White House's request, explained that strikes across the border from the Ukrainian city Kharkiv would have limited impact because 90% of Russian aircraft had been moved back from the border – out of distance of the short-range missiles.

But the assessments also noted while Putin often threatens to use nuclear weapons, Moscow is unlikely to take such a step in part because they do not provide a clear military benefit. Intelligence officials described the nuclear option as a last resort for Russia and that Putin would resort to other means of reprisal first, noting Russia was already engaged in sabotage and cyberattacks.

Still, some officials inside the White House and Pentagon argued that allowing Kyiv to use the missiles to strike inside Russia would put Kyiv, the US and American allies in unprecedented danger, provoking Putin to retaliate either through nuclear force or other deadly tactics outside the war zone.

Pentagon officials worried about attacks on US military bases.

THE NORTH KOREA FACTOR

The introduction of North Korean troops convinced the administration, particularly a group of officials at the White House and the Pentagon concerned about escalation, to allow the long-range strikes, said a senior US official.

Russia was making battlefield gains and the North Korean troops were viewed internally as escalation by Moscow necessitating a response from Washington, the official said.

Given the early intelligence assessments downplaying the risk of nuclear escalation, the nuclear fears were overstated and the decision to allow wider use of ATACMs came too late, said a senior US official and a lawmaker, citing Russia's recent advances.

Intelligence sources say Moscow's most robust and successful reprisal operations are likely to come through sabotage. Russian intelligence services have launched a massive international effort in Europe to intimidate countries who support Ukraine, one European diplomat said.

A US official added Moscow was actively looking to advance its "gray-zone" warfare against the West and that Russia has an extensive network of agents and it exploring options for using them.​

 

[Saif]

Ukraine pushes NATO for invite as Trump looms
Agence France-Presse . Brussels 04 December, 2024, 01:20

Ukraine insisted Tuesday that NATO membership was the only ‘real guarantee’ for its security as foreign ministers from the alliance looked set to rebuff Kyiv’s push for an invite ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency.

Trump has vowed to press for a quick deal to end Russia’s war, leaving Kyiv scrambling to position itself ahead of his January inauguration.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky has said getting security guarantees from the Western alliance and supplies of key weaponry are prerequisites for Kyiv to start talking about halting its fight.

‘We are convinced that the only real guarantee of security for Ukraine, as well as a deterrent to further Russian aggression against Ukraine and other states, is Ukraine’s full membership in NATO,’ the foreign ministry in Kyiv said.

Zelensky said Sunday that Kyiv was hoping NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels with Ukraine’s top diplomat would issue ‘recommendations’ to grant his country a membership invitation.

‘But we have no illusions — there are some sceptical countries,’ he said.

Until now, the leaders of NATO heavyweights the United States and Germany have backed away from Ukrainian membership out of fear it could drag the alliance into a war with Russia.

Diplomats said that with the administration of US president Joe Biden on its way out and Germany chancellor Olaf Scholz’s future in doubt ahead of elections, Kyiv hoped their foreign ministers could have more leeway.

But US officials in private say the Biden administration will not back Ukraine’s push as they believe any offer would be rescinded by the president-elect.

NATO secretary general Mark Rutte pushed away questions over Ukraine’s possible membership and how it could play into any peace deal, saying the alliance needed to ‘concentrate’ on getting more weapons to Kyiv.

‘I would now argue that Ukraine doesn’t need more ideas on what a peace process could look like,’ Rutte said.

‘Make sure that Ukraine has what it needs to get to a position of strength when those peace talks start.’

Trump has said he could end Russia’s war in Ukraine in a matter of hours, but has given no details on how he intends to achieve that goal.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned against any moves to place Ukraine under NATO’s security umbrella.

‘Such a potential decision is unacceptable to us,’ Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Trump’s new envoy on the Ukraine war, Keith Kellogg, has floated shelving Ukraine’s longstanding NATO ambitions as part of a peace deal — while still providing Kyiv security guarantees.

Rutte warned the incoming US administration that if Ukraine got a ‘bad deal’ it risked emboldening American rivals such as China and North Korea.

‘Whenever we get to a deal on Ukraine, it has to be a good deal,’ he said.

While moving Ukraine closer to the alliance appears unlikely right now, two Western diplomats said initial discussions had begun on whether European troops could be deployed to enforce any eventual ceasefire.

‘In many countries, there is very serious thinking on various possible scenarios and how we can contribute to security guarantees,’ a European diplomat said.

‘We need to be able to have an idea to communicate to the US.’

As Ukraine presses on the diplomatic side, its forces are buckling across the eastern front in the face of Russia’s grinding offensive.

Russia said Tuesday that it had captured two more southeastern villages, while Ukraine said it had repelled a push across a key river.

Kyiv is looking to wring all the weaponry it can from the Biden administration amid fears Trump will cut aid.

Washington on Monday announced an additional $725 million military aid package for Ukraine.

Kyiv has called on allies to provide air defence systems capable of shooting down the new Oreshnik experimental ballistic missile fired by Moscow.

Those include the American Terminal High Altitude Area Defence system and the Arrow system developed by Israel and the US, officials said.

NATO diplomats said they doubted Washington would move quickly to provide Ukraine the new systems, given how long it took Biden to give the green light on delivering less-modern Patriot defences.​