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Wars 2022 02/24 Monitoring Russian and Ukraine War.

Wars 2022 02/24 Monitoring Russian and Ukraine War.
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Russia says it wants a long-term Ukraine peace deal, not a quick US-backed ceasefire
REUTERS
Published :
Feb 24, 2025 17:15
Updated :
Feb 24, 2025 17:15

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Russian and US flags are pictured before talks between Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov and US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman at the United States Mission in Geneva, Switzerland January 10, 2022. Photo : REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/ Files

Russia wants a long-term peace deal over Ukraine that tackles what it regards as the root causes of the conflict and not a quick US-backed ceasefire followed by a swift restart of fighting, a senior Russian diplomat told the RIA news agency.

In an interview released on Monday, the third anniversary of tens of thousands of Russian troops crossing into Ukraine at the orders of President Vladimir Putin, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Moscow was after a Ukraine deal that stood the test of time.

"We can recognise with sufficient confidence the desire of the American side to move towards a quick ceasefire," RIA cited Ryabkov as saying.

"But ... a ceasefire without a long-term settlement is the path to a swift resumption of fighting and a resumption of the conflict with even more serious consequences, including consequences for Russian-American relations. We do not want this.

"We need to find a long-term solution, which, in turn, must necessarily include an element of overcoming the root causes of what has been happening in and around Ukraine," said Ryabkov.

Russia-US talks held in Riyadh last week, which Moscow has said agreed to work on restoring bilateral ties and preparing for Ukraine talks, did not offer greater clarity about President Donald Trump's peace plan for Ukraine, Ryabkov said.

He repeated Moscow's stance that it had no choice but to launch what it calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine - something Ukraine and the West call a brutal colonial-style war of conquest - because of what he said was the NATO alliance's "unrestrained" eastwards expansion.

He also complained about what he called the trampling of the rights of the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine, repeating an allegation which Kyiv denies.​
 
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US opposes Ukraine territorial integrity in UN vote
United Nations . United States 26 February, 2025, 00:07

UN members backed a resolution supporting Ukraine’s territorial integrity Monday, facing down staunch opposition from Washington which pushed its own language that declined to blame Russia for the war or mention Kyiv’s borders.

The resolution, which won 93 votes in favour and 18 against with 65 abstentions — a drop in support compared to previous resolutions supporting Ukraine — reaffirmed the UN Assembly’s ‘commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of Ukraine.’

Washington sided with Moscow to join 16 others voting against.

A rival US resolution calling for a ‘swift end’ to the Ukraine conflict but omitting any mention of Kyiv’s territorial integrity, did not win support from UN General Assembly members.

The assembly amended it so heavily that Washington abstained when the reworked text came to a vote.

Russian ambassador to the UN Vassily Nebenzia had called the unedited US text ‘a step in the right direction’ amid a dramatic thaw between Russia and the United States under President Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, French president Emmanuel Macron warned that peace cannot mean the ‘surrender’ of Ukraine, but said talks with US president Donald Trump had shown a path forward despite fears of a transatlantic rift.

Meeting at the White House on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion, the two leaders said there was progress on the idea of sending peacekeepers to Ukraine, although Macron insisted on US security guarantees for Kyiv.

Their talks came as Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky called for peace ‘this year’ as he met European leaders in Kyiv — amid mounting fears that Trump is pivoting towards Russia’s stance.

Early Tuesday, air raid sirens sounded across Ukraine as authorities warned of a wide missile attack.

They later reported at least five people were wounded and multiple buildings were damaged.

Authorities in neighbouring Poland said they scrambled military aircraft in response to the missile attack.

‘This peace cannot mean the surrender of Ukraine,’ Macron told a joint news conference with Trump.

Macron said Trump had ‘good reason’ to re-engage with Russian president Vladimir Putin but said it was critical for Washington to offer ‘backup’ for any European peacekeeping force.

The French president said he would work with British prime minister Keir Starmer, who visits the White House on Thursday, on a proposal to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine in the event of a deal.

‘After speaking with president Trump, I fully believe there is a path forward,’ said Macron.

The French president rushed to Washington after Trump sent shock waves around the world when he declared his readiness to resume diplomacy with Russia and hold talks to end the Ukraine war without Kyiv.

Trump’s recent embrace of Russia has sparked fears not only that it could spell the end of US support for Kyiv, but for the rest of Europe too.

The US president said Monday he was confident of bringing an end to the war, and that he expected Zelensky at the White House in the next two weeks to sign a deal granting Washington access to Ukraine’s rare minerals.

‘I think we could end it within weeks — if we’re smart. If we’re not smart, it will keep going,’ Trump said earlier in the Oval Office alongside Macron.

Macron later agreed that a truce was possible in ‘weeks,’ in an interview with Fox News’s Bret Baier.

Trump meanwhile added that Putin was ready to ‘accept’ European troops deployed in Ukraine as guarantors of a deal to end fighting.

But billionaire tycoon Trump repeated his demands that Europe bears the burden for future support of Ukraine, and that the US recoups the billions of dollars in aid it has given Kyiv.

He also declined to call Putin a dictator — despite calling Zelensky one last week — or to comment on the UN resolutions.

For his part, Putin has been biding his time since his ice-breaking call with Trump less than two weeks ago.

Putin said in an interview with state television Monday that European countries can ‘participate’ in talks to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, his first sign of flexibility on the issue.

Sanctions-hit Moscow is meanwhile also eying the economic side, just as Trump is. Putin said Monday that US and Russian companies were ‘in touch’ on joint economic projects — including strategic minerals in occupied Ukraine.

Putin added in his interview with state television that Zelensky was becoming a ‘toxic figure’ in Ukraine — in comments that have been echoed by Trump.

Trump and Putin are eyeing a possible meeting in the coming weeks in Saudi Arabia.

Zelensky, who has said he would step down in exchange for peace with a guarantee that Ukraine could join NATO, called on Monday for a ‘real, lasting peace’ this year.

Putin’s decision to launch the invasion in February 2022 set off the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II, leading to the deaths of tens of thousands of soldiers on both sides and of Ukrainian civilians.

Trump has however accused Ukraine of starting the war, as he rapidly moves to abandon Democratic predecessor Joe Biden’s support for Kyiv.

The Republican spelled things out on Monday, saying he was making a ‘decisive break’ with traditional US foreign policy which he called ‘very foolish.’​
 
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Ukraine needs $524 billion to recover, rebuild after three years of war, World Bank says
REUTERS
Published :
Feb 25, 2025 20:30
Updated :
Feb 25, 2025 20:30

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A resident stands in her flat in an apartment building hit by a Russian missile strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine January 23, 2025. Photo : REUTERS/Stringer/Files

The estimated cost to rebuild Ukraine's economy after Russia's invasion has risen to $524 billion, nearly three times its expected 2024 economic output, the World Bank, United Nations, European Commission and the Ukrainian government found.

A new study by the institutions included data from Russia's invasion three years ago through December 31, including a 70 per cent increase in damages to Ukraine's energy infrastructure from Russian attacks.

It showed an increase of over 7 per cent from the last estimate of $486 billion one year ago, with housing, transport, energy, commerce and education being the most affected sectors.

The study quantifies the direct physical damage to buildings and other infrastructure, the impact on people's lives and livelihoods and the cost to "build back better," the institutions said in a joint news release.

US President Donald Trump is pushing to end the war through separate talks with Russia and Ukraine, telling reporters during a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron that a deal could be reached in weeks.

"In the past year, Ukraine's recovery needs have continued to grow due to Russia's ongoing attacks," Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said in a statement.

Ukraine's government has allocated $7.37 billion to address priority needs for 2025, with support from donors, but still has a financing gap of nearly $10 billion, the joint statement said.

The latest assessment, using a universal methodology to assess damages and needs, found that direct damage in Ukraine from Russian attacks has risen to $176 billion from $152 billion reported in February 2024.

About 13 per cent of Ukraine's total housing stock has been damaged or destroyed, affecting more than 2.5 million households.

It cited a 70 per cent increase in damaged or destroyed assets in the energy sector since the last assessment one year ago, including power generation, transmission, distribution infrastructure and district heating.

The housing sector accounted for about $84 billion of the total long-term needs, followed by transport with almost $78 billion, energy and mining with almost $68 billion, commerce and industry with over $64 billion, and agriculture with over $55 billion.

The cost of debris clearance and management alone was pegged at almost $13 billion, the report said.

Antonella Bassani, the World Bank's vice president for Europe and Central Asia, said the assessment showed the progress Ukraine has already made on physical and economic recovery, reforms and reconstruction needs.

It excluded over $13 billion in needs across eight sectors that have already been met by Ukraine with the support of its partners and the private sector. That includes some $1.2 billion disbursed from state budget and donor funds for housing needs and over 2,000 km (1,243 miles) of emergency road repairs.​
 
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Ukraine says in ‘final stages’ of talks on mineral deal with US
AFP
Kyiv, Ukraine
Published: 25 Feb 2025, 08: 52

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This combination of pictures created on 15 November, 2024 shows Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky and US president-elect Donald Trump AFP

Ukraine and the United States are working out details of an agreement that would give Washington access to Ukrainian natural resources in exchange for US support, Kyiv said Monday.

Negotiations have triggered tensions with US officials pressuring Ukraine to sign a deal despite Kyiv’s insistence that initial drafts lacked vital security guarantees.

“Ukrainian and US teams are in the final stages of negotiations regarding the minerals agreement. The negotiations have been very constructive, with nearly all key details finalised,” Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanishyna said on X.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he aims to get concrete security guarantees from the United States in exchange for granting Washington access to critical resources.

US President Donald Trump has demanded that Ukraine give access to rare minerals to compensate for the wartime aid Kyiv received under Joe Biden.

“We are committed to completing this swiftly to proceed with its signature,” Stefanishyna added in her post on social media.

She said she hoped that Trump and Zelensky would sign the deal in Washington “to showcase our commitment for decades to come”.​
 
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Ukraine can ‘forget about’ joining Nato
Says Trump; Zelensky insists on ‘security guarantees’ ahead of Washington visit

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Photo: Reuters

US President Donald Trump yesterday brushed aside Ukraine's aspirations to join Nato, again repeating Russia's stance that the issue caused the three-year-old war.

"Nato -- you can forget about," Trump said when asked about a potential deal to end the war. "I think that's probably the reason the whole thing started."

His statement came despite President Volodymyr Zelensky softening his stance on signing an accord on rare minerals.

He said he hopes to visit Washington this week to meet Trump and discuss future US support for Ukraine.

Zelensky, who has come under mounting pressure from US officials to sign an accord on rare minerals, told reporters -- including from AFP -- that Ukrainian and US officials were working to confirm a meeting with Trump in Washington tomorrow.

He later told a press conference that he will immediately follow the trip with talks with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and other European leaders in Britain at the weekend.

His comments about the deal and US visit came just after Russian artillery killed at least five people in Ukraine's war-battered east and a drone barrage claimed two more lives near Kyiv, including a Ukrainian journalist.

Discussions were fraught on the minerals deal, which would grant the United States preferential access to Ukrainian natural resources in exchange for US support.

Officials late on Tuesday said they had come to an agreement following protracted negotiations but Zelensky told reporters in Kyiv that more difficult work lay ahead.

"This is a start, this is a framework agreement," he told journalists.

Further discussions between US and Ukrainian officials would determine the nature of security guarantees for Ukraine and the exact sums of money at stake in the accords.

"Guarantees of peace and security are the key to preventing Russia from destroying the lives of other nations," Zelensky said in his evening video address.

Zelensky had warned the "deal could be a great success or simply disappear. Whether it is a big success, I think, depends on our conversation with President Trump. We'll draw conclusions after."

Zelensky's refusal to sign a first draft of the accord delivered to him in Kyiv by the US treasury secretary was met with anger by Trump, who called the Ukrainian leader a "dictator" afterwards.

The Kremlin has also sought to woo Trump by lavishing praise on the US leader and by encouraging American investments in natural resources in Ukrainian territory controlled by Russian forces.

Russian and US diplomats will meet in Istanbul today to discuss resolving issues related to their embassies, Russia's foreign minister said, as tensions ease between the two countries.

But both Moscow and Kyiv have stepped up aerial attacks on their energy and military facilities, even as Trump pushes for a deal to end the conflict launched by Russia more than three years ago.

AFP journalists in Kyiv heard explosions ringing out after Russia launched its drone barrage, which the Ukrainian air force later said consisted of 177 drones of various types targeting regions across the country.

The Ukrinform news agency announced yesterday afternoon that its journalist Tetiana Kulyk was among those killed in the attack.

The university where Kulyk's husband worked said it was likely that he was at home with her at the time of the strike, and authorities said they had found a second body.

And Ukraine's largest private energy company, DTEK, said one of its facilities had been damaged in the Dnipropetrovsk region, without elaborating.

On the front line, Russian forces have been clawing their way towards the town of Kostyantynivka and intensively bombarding the civilian hub in the eastern Donetsk region, which the Kremlin claims is part of Russia.

Regional authorities said five people were killed and 11 wounded in the latest strikes by Russia, which has a better-resourced and large army across the sprawling front line.

Ukraine however announced that it had launched a successful counterattack in the Donetsk region, gaining control over the village of Kotlyne near a key transit artery and the logistics hub of Pokrovsk.

The Russian defence ministry said separately that its forces had gained control over two villages in the Kursk region where Ukrainian forces launched a surprise offensive in August last year.

Kyiv has stepped up air strikes against energy and military facilities on Russian territory in recent months, in what it says is a response to Moscow's bombardment of its cities and energy infrastructure.

Drone attacks overnight targeted the Russian regions of Bryansk and Kursk, according to the ministry.

No major damage was immediately reported by Russian media or authorities.​
 
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Ukraine ‘agrees mineral deal with US’
Agence France-Presse . Kyiv, Ukraine 27 February, 2025, 00:37

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An elderly woman holds a placard during a protest against a minerals deal with the United States in front of the Embassy of the United States of America, in Kyiv, on Wednesday, amid the Russian invasion in Ukraine. | AFP photo

Ukraine has agreed on the terms of a minerals deal with the United States and could sign it as early as Friday on a trip to Washington by president Volodymyr Zelensky, a senior Ukrainian official said.

US president Donald Trump had demanded that Ukraine give access to its rare earth minerals to compensate for the billions of dollars worth of wartime aid it received under Joe Biden.

The deal would see the United States jointly develop Ukraine’s mineral wealth, with revenues going to a newly created fund that would be ‘joint for Ukraine and America’, a senior Ukrainian source said.

‘Now government officials are working on the details As of now, we are considering a visit to Washington for Friday to sign the agreement,’ the source added.

Ukraine had asked for security guarantees from the US as part of any agreement.

The source said the draft of the deal includes a reference to ‘security’, but does not explicitly set out the United States’s role.

‘There is a general clause that says America will invest in a stable and prosperous sovereign Ukraine, that it works for a lasting peace, and that America supports efforts to guarantee security.’

The source also said Washington had cut clauses that would have been unfavourable to Ukraine, including that it provide ‘$500 billion’ worth of resources.

Meanwhile, Ukraine said that Russian strikes on a front-line town in the east of the country killed at least five people and wounded eight more just hours after a fatal drone attack near Kyiv.

The large-scale Russian drone barrage overnight killed two people near Kyiv, including a Ukrainian journalist, her news agency said.

AFP journalists in Kyiv heard explosions ringing out after the Ukrainian air force said Russia fired a barrage of 177 drones of various types at targets across the country.

Russian forces have been clawing their way towards the town of Kostyantynivka and intensively bombarding the civilian hub in the eastern Donetsk region, which the Kremlin claims is part of Russia.

‘At least five people were killed and eight were wounded in the strikes on Kostyantynivka,’ the governor of the Donetsk region Vadim Filashkin wrote on social media.

The strikes attest to the increasingly difficult fighting for Ukrainian forces that are facing down a better-resourced and large Russian army across the sprawling front line.

The attack on Kostyantynivka, which had an estimated pre-war population of around 67,000 people, came after Russia launched dozens of drones overnight in an aerial assault that damaged Ukrainian energy facilities and killed two people near the Ukrainian capital.

The Ukrinform news agency announced Wednesday afternoon that its journalist Tetiana Kulyk was among those killed in the attack.

‘Her untimely death has shocked her colleagues and is a huge loss for the agency,’ the agency said in a statement.

Ukrainian troops said Wednesday they had launched a successful counterattack in the eastern Donetsk region, gaining control over the village of Kotlyne near a key transit artery and the logistics hub of Pokrovsk.

Fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces near the rail and mining hub of Pokrovsk is some of the fiercest of the invasion launched by the Kremlin in February 2022.

‘Taking this settlement would have allowed the occupiers to reach the Pokrovsk-Dnipro highway, so the enemy sent significant forces to capture it,’ the Ukrainian unit involved in the operation posted on social media.​
 
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Russia rules out 'any options' for European peacekeepers in Ukraine
REUTERS
Published :
Feb 26, 2025 21:00
Updated :
Feb 26, 2025 21:00

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Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attends a meeting with Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in Doha, Qatar February 26, 2025. Photo : Russian Foreign Ministry/Handout via REUTERS

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that Moscow could not consider "any options" for European peacekeepers being sent to Ukraine and that the idea was aimed at fuelling the conflict and making it harder to de-escalate.

French President Emmanuel Macron spoke in favour of the concept during talks with US President Donald Trump on Monday, saying troops could be deployed to ensure that any peace deal was respected. Trump said he accepted the idea and that Russian President Vladimir Putin did too, though the Kremlin later indicated that Russian opposition to it was unchanged.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is due to hold talks with Trump on Thursday, has said he would be ready to send British troops to Ukraine as part of any postwar peacekeeping force.

But Lavrov, who has previously called the proposal "unacceptable," set out Moscow's objections to any deployment in some of the strongest terms yet, removing any doubt about the matter after Trump's suggestion that Putin had come round to the idea.

"We cannot consider any options" when it comes to European peacekeepers, he said during a visit to Qatar.

"Trump said that a decision on the deployment of peacekeeping forces would only be possible with the consent of both sides. Apparently referring to us and Ukraine. Nobody has asked us about this," said Lavrov, who some Western diplomats nickname "Doctor No" because of his habit of frequently voicing Moscow's objections to various Western initiatives.

"This approach, which is being imposed by the Europeans, primarily France, but also the British, is aimed at what I just mentioned: to further fuel the conflict and to stop any attempts to calm it down."

Doubling down on Russia's so far maximalist approach to any potential settlement over Ukraine, Lavrov indicated Moscow still wanted full control over four regions it claims as its own in any deal, despite Ukrainian objections.

He also said there would not be a settlement that left the two sides facing off against each other along a line of contact, indicating that Moscow was interested in a solution that would leave the territory that remains under Ukraine's control less hostile to Russia and Russian-speakers.

Ukraine has repeatedly denied Russian assertions it has repressed ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers on its territory.

"Therefore, we cannot get away with such simple technical measures like deploying troops. We need to talk about the root causes (of the conflict)," Lavrov said.

"The root causes were the (attempted) dragging of Ukraine into NATO and the total eradication of the rights of Russians and Russian-speaking people."​
 
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Trump’s minerals deal may play in Ukraine’s favour long-term

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Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskiy meet at Trump Tower in New York City, US. Photo: REUTERS/FILE

The minerals deal that US President Donald Trump could soon sign with Ukraine may not be the colonial-style asset grab it appears to be. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy can still turn it to his country's long-term advantage.

Giving Washington a piece of Ukraine's critical minerals and other resources was an idea Zelenskiy took to then-candidate Trump back in September, hoping it would align the two countries' commercial interests. The Ukrainian leader got more than he'd bargained for after the November election, when Trump started talking about some $500 billion he expected as "money back" for the financial and military support the US has channelled to the country since Russia invaded three years ago.

The two countries have been discussing an agreement that would require Ukraine to pay half the revenue it will extract from the future monetisation of natural resources to a special fund controlled by the US, the New York Times reported. The fund would be tasked with reinvesting part of the proceeds in Ukraine, as a catalyst for attracting overseas capital. The US appears to have dropped the $500 billion demand, which never made much sense. American civil and military support to Kyiv over the last three years amounted to 114 billion euros, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Over the same period, European countries sent 132 billion euros.

One big unknown is the scale of Ukraine's assets. Local authorities have a poor picture, of their country's underground resources, which include uranium, lithium, oil and gas. The last mapping of so-called rare-earth metals was completed decades ago, and the deposits may not be viable. Besides, some of the coveted elements are in territory occupied by Russia.

Furthermore, any revenue is years away. Ukraine will first have to build or rebuild mines and repair the country's damaged energy grid. The promise of future returns could spur US investment, thereby beginning the rebuilding of Ukraine, a task the World Bank estimates, will cost $524 billion.

Zelenskiy wanted any deal to be conditional on American involvement in policing a truce with Russia. That condition appears to have run up against the Trump administration's opposition to military involvement in Europe. But the Ukrainian leader has also stated that giving the US an interest in the country's economic future would achieve the same outcome. Indeed, Russia doesn't like the mooted deal - and President Vladimir Putin has offered the US a mineral agreement of his own.

Zelenskiy might also conclude that a general agreement covering unknown assets with distant revenue may not bind Kyiv much. By the time the mines are up and running, the US may have a friendlier president. Ukraine could then review the contract or tear it up altogether. It's a negotiating strategy Trump might even admire.

The US and Ukraine have agreed on the terms of a draft minerals deal central to Kyiv's push to win Washington's support as President Donald Trump seeks to rapidly end the war with Russia, Reuters reported on February 25 citing two sources with knowledge of the matter.

A source familiar with the contents of the draft agreement said that it does not specify any US security guarantees or continued flow of weapons but says that the United States wants Ukraine to be "free, sovereign and secure."

US President Donald Trump indicated that his counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy might visit Washington on February 28 to sign the agreement. "I understand it's a big deal, very big deal," he said in the Oval Office on February 25.​
 
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