[🇧🇩] A Strategic Analysis of Bangladesh Myanmar Relationship

[Saif]

St Martin’s Island get food, essentials after 9 days

The tourist ship Baro Awlia left a Teknaf jetty this afternoon ferrying the goods, to ease the ongoing food crisis on the island due to the conflict in Myanmar

www.thedailystar.net

St Martin's Island get food, essentials after 9 days

File photo of a tourist ship travelling to St Martin's Island from Teknaf via the Naf river. Photo: Star

The Cox's Bazar district administration has sent food and other daily essentials for about one month to St Martin's Island through a tourist ship after nine days.

The tourist ship Baro Awlia left a Cox's Bazar BIWTA jetty this afternoon ferrying the goods, to ease the ongoing food crisis on the island due to the conflict in Myanmar, reports our Cox's Bazar staff correspondent quoting Yamin Hossain, additional district magistrate.

Over the last few days, several trawlers, tourist ships, and speedboats had been fired upon from the Myanmar side of the border.

Some 150 people from St Martin's, who were stranded in Teknaf and Cox's Bazar, also travelled home on the ship after at least nine days.

The move comes as the island was almost out of food and other supplies after the suspension of vessel movement on the usual route via the Naf river.

St Martin's Island, which can only be accessed by boats, hasn't received regular supplies since June 6.

The government sent some foodstuff, and traders took food items, including rice, onion, potato, fruits and other essentials on the ship which would last them for at least one month, the additional district magistrate added.

Rehena Akhter, a resident of Konarpara on the Island, said she came to Cox's Bazar along with her husband and their three-year-old daughter to take a tour and also visit the doctor 10 days ago.

"We wanted to return home yesterday [Thursday] on a fishing trawler from Teknaf, but dared not to after witnessing the rough sea," she said.

"We were staying at a hotel and had to spend a lot of money as our brief trip was prolonged," she added.

Luna Akhter, a second-year honours student of Cox's Bazar Government College, also a resident of the island, said the government could have provided sea trucks for safe transportation of St Martin's residents as the only route to the island was closed off due to the conflict in Myanmar.

Meanwhile, the sounds of mortar shells and grenade explosions across the border in Myanmar's Rakhine state rocked the bordering areas of Teknaf last night till early morning.

Explosions could be heard from 7:00pm Thursday to 2:00am today. However, there were explosions during the day till Friday evening, locals said.

Nevertheless, panic gripped locals as a Myanmar warship was spotted in the Badarmokam area near Shahporir Dwip on the Teknaf-Saint Martin waterway, on Naf river.

Teknaf Upazila Nirbahi Officer (UNO) Adnan Chowdhury confirmed that the ship belonged to Myanmar.

Residents of St Martin's were also panicking after noticing three Myanmar warships near the island.

Mohammad Hashem, a resident of Dailpara of St Martin's Island, said he had never seen Myanmar's warships placed so close to the island before.

"From these ships, the Myanmar troops fight with the Arakan Army. We hear the sounds of explosions. We are very scared," he said.​

 

[Saif]

If Myanmar firing hits any Bangladeshi, response will be given: Quader

Awami League (AL) General Secretary and Road Transport and Bridges Minister Obaidul Quader on Saturday said that efforts are being made to resolve the issue of Myanmar’s firing reaching Saint Martin’s Island through discussions with that country. “It will be regretful if we suffe

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

If Myanmar firing hits any Bangladeshi, response will be given: Quader
Published :
Jun 15, 2024 17:23
Updated :
Jun 15, 2024 18:46

Awami League (AL) General Secretary and Road Transport and Bridges Minister Obaidul Quader on Saturday said that efforts are being made to resolve the issue of Myanmar's firing reaching Saint Martin's Island through discussions with that country.

"It will be regretful if we suffer because of the internal violence and crisis in Myanmar. Efforts are going on and Bangladesh will continue to seek resolution through discussions, avoiding war. However, if anyone (Bangladeshi) becomes a victim, a response will be given," he said.

He said these at a press briefing at the Awami League president's office in Dhaka's Dhanmondi, reports BSS.

Quader said, "We are ready. We won't attack. But we will not spare if they attack. Resistance will be built if we are attacked. We have no antagonism with Myanmar. The door of discussion is open."

He said, "Our neighboring country Myanmar has some internal crises. They have 54 ethnic groups. There are conflicts among themselves. It will be very unfortunate if we suffer from their internal crisis. There is a military government there. We are trying to solve it through discussions and will continue to do so avoiding war. However, if we are attacked, we will respond to that attack. There is no reason to underestimate us. We are ready."

Referring to the Rohingya crisis that has burdened Bangladesh, the AL leader said, "Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina generously opened the borders for humanitarian reasons. For this, she is called the 'Mother of Humanity'. Now, countries and organizations around the world praise us. We need not lip service of big countries in this regard."

"The amount of assistance for Rohingyas has decreased significantly. We are worried about the ongoing economic crisis. The additional burden of 10-12 lakh Rohingyas is creating pressure," he added.

About traffic congestion on roads during Eid journey, the minister said, although there is traffic congestion in some places, there was no need to wait for hours anywhere.

Over BNP's claim that the government will fall any moment, the AL general secretary said, "This is their daydream. Government changes either through a popular uprising or an election. The election was held on January 7, 2024. The idea that the government will fall in a popular uprising is laughable."

Awami League Joint General Secretary A F M Bahauddin Nasim, Organizational Secretary B M Mozammel Haque, Sujit Roy Nandi, Cultural Affairs Secretary Ashim Kumar Ukil and Deputy Publicity Secretary Syed Abdul Awal Shamim, among others, were present.​

 

[Saif]

Saint Martin's situation certainly calls for counter response

Arakan Army thats Bangladesh is arming the Rohingya, ARSA and RSO, and sending them to Arakan. The Bangladesh government has not verified whether these claims are true or not

en.prothomalo.com

Saint Martin's situation certainly calls for counter response
M Sakhawat Hossain
Published: 16 Jun 2024, 11: 57

A warship of Myanmar Navy was anchored in Badar Mokam area of Shah Porir Dwip on the Teknaf-Saint Martin's waterways for two days.Prothom Alo

The Saint Martin's Island may not be a very important island in a strategic sense. It is a small coral island. It is not very safe, security-wise. To the west of the river Naf is Bangladesh and to the east, Myanmar. If we look at the Myanmar coastline, we will see that it goes down from Shahpori Island and proceeds south much like a funnel. Bangladesh maritime territory is used to reach Saint Martin's Island, and some parts of the route are very close to Myanmar.

A civil war prevails in the Rakhine region. The Arakan Army has taken over 17 to 18 towns in the northern part of Rakhine already. The fight with the Myanmar army is basically now taking place in Maungdu. The Arakan Army has surrounded this town. The town lies along the border with Bangladesh.

There are two posts of the Myanmar Border Guard Police near the border with Bangladesh. As far as has been learnt, both the posts are now under control of the Arakan Army. If we take a look at the Rakhine map, we will see that as a result of the Arakan Army taking over these two posts, the road leading to Sittwe has been completely cut off. And with Rathidaung being taken over too, the road linking Maungdu with Yangon had also been more or less cut off.

There is fear that it is the Arakan Army's firing that can be directed towards our trawlers and speedboats. That is because they feel that the Bangladesh authorities are arming the Rohingya, ARSA and RSO, and sending them to Arakan. The Bangladesh government has made no statement to verify whether these claims are true or not.

The matter remains that the Arakan Army do not trust the Rohingya. They have all sorts of suspicions particularly about the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO) and the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA). It has been learnt that RSA and ARSA are being equipped with arms and are fighting against the Arakan Army on behalf of the Myanmar army, Tatmadaw. It has been learnt that after the fall of Buthidaung, around 30,000 to 40,000 Rohingyas there have fled to the hills. The homes of the Rohingyas there have been burnt to the ground. The Arakan Army, however, denied that they have set fire to the Rohingya homes. They say that these were destroyed by the Myanmar air force shelling.

We have seen in the news media that a Myanmar gunboat of naval ship was positioned in the Naf River. The question is whether they remained within their maritime territory. If they were within their own territory, then we cannot take any measures legally.

Presumably the Myanmar vessel came to the river Naf to launch a counter attack on the Arakan Army. The objective was to thwart the fall of Maungdu. After all, if Maungdu falls into Arakan Army's hands, the fall of Sittwe will be imminent. That also means that the headquarters of the army in North Rakhine will also fall and the entire North Rakhine will be in Arakan Army's control. Under these circumstances, as all roads have been obstructed, the Tatmadaw may have opted now to use the navy.

If Maungdu falls, that will be a serious blow to Tatmadaw. There are around 100,000 Rohingya there. They are being used as human shields. If the Arakan Army takes over Maungdu, the fate of the Rohingya will be uncertain again. The Rohingya do not have the strength to resist the Arakan Army or to negotiate with them and reach an understanding.

Bangladesh is walking along a tightrope. Generally speaking, the people feel that diplomatic letters or such steps won't do the trick. No matter to how limited a degree, we must come up with a counter response.

To read the rest of the news, please click on the link above.​

 

[Saif]

Frustration grows as Rohingya youths face grim reality

Over half a million Rohingya children are growing up in Bangladesh camps amid frustration, without hope for the future, and with fears of being drawn into extremism...

www.newagebd.net

Frustration grows as Rohingya youths face grim reality
Azad Majumder . back from Cox's Bazar 20 June, 2024, 00:51

Over half a million Rohingya children are growing up in Bangladesh camps amid frustration, without hope for the future, and with fears of being drawn into extremism, drug trade, and human trafficking.

Bangladesh houses 979,306 Rohingyas in 33 camps in Cox's Bazar and Bhasan Char Island as of April 30, 2024, according to UN agencies, though the Bangladesh government estimates the figure to be close to 1.2 million.

About 52 per cent of the Rohingyas are children. Many of them were born in Bangladesh camps after the mass exodus from Myanmar in 2017.

According to the UN children's agency UNICEF, within Cox's Bazar camps, there are 3,565 learning centres supported by education sector partners, including 3,056 learning centres supported by itself.

There are also 31 cross-sectoral shared spaces used for education and 2,233 community-based learning facilities.

UNICEF country representative Sheldon Yett said that through these learning centres, they could provide formal education and alternative learning, based on the Myanmar curriculum to roughly 260,000 children.

'We aim to further ensure that children have the desirable learning levels and skills,' Yett told New Age.

UNICEF data, however, suggests that many Rohingya children, particularly those aged between 3-5 years and 15–18 years, are still out of school.

With no tertiary-level education permitted in the camp, most of the Rohingya students end their education after Class X.

For the 2024-2025 academic year starting in early August, Class XI will be offered, UNICEF said, adding that Class XII will be offered next year.

Sixteen-year-old Rohingya boy Salim Ullah, who was passing idle time at a community centre jointly run by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and Bangladeshi non-profit BRAC inside Camp-4 on June 9, said that he was aiming to be a teacher after completing his education.

'I used to go to school here for the past few years. But now I mostly learn from private teachers,' said Salim Ullah.

'I want to be a teacher. If it is not possible, I want to go to Malaysia or any other country to support my family,' Salim Ullah, accompanied by a few other Rohingya children of his age, said.

Ali Zohar, who is a bit older than Salim, said that they spent most of their time playing carom at the recreational facilities because there was not much else to do.

'We always live in fear as we see people often being kidnapped or killed here,' said Zohar.

Sometimes young children also join them in recreational facilities with little or no playing opportunities for them in open spaces.

Eight-year-old Mohammad Faisal told New Age that he had no memory of Myanmar and was not sure if he would ever go back to the country.

'I only hear stories of Myanmar from my parents. But I don't know what it looks like,' said Faisal.

Against the backdrop, Rohingyas will observe World Refugee Day in camps with some activities supported by UNHCR and other humanitarian agencies.

UNHCR and BRAC officials said that they run several such recreational facilities inside the camps to keep Rohingya youths and adults engaged in positive activities so that they could not be distracted by other elements present in the camp.

In spite of the UN agency and its local partners' efforts, the Rohingyas' frustration at being forced to live in a camp on the harsh plain and hillside is evident in every corner of the camp, with most adults and children simply strolling aimlessly.

Rohingya parents mostly worry about their children due to the rising crime in the camp.

According to the Rapid Action Battalion, 64 Rohingyas were killed in camps in 2023, and 20 were killed until the first week of June 2024.

To read the rest of the news, please click on the link above.​

 

[Saif]

Are security threats emerging over Saint Martin's?

Incidents centering Saint Martin's are drawing attention because of two reasons. One is the consecutive successes of the Arakan Army. The other is statements made by prime minister Sheikh Hasina and a few others

en.prothomalo.com

Are security threats emerging over Saint Martin's?

After the onset of the coordinated operations of Myanmar's rebel groups, the spillover at the border poses as a security threat to Bangladesh. Is anything happening behind the scenes centering Saint Martin's Islam? Ali Riaz searches for answers
Ali Riaz
Published: 21 Jun 2024, 08: 27

Bangladesh's news media regularly reports on the developments along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border and in the Arakan state. Last week a new dimension was added to the prevailing circumstances when a Myanmar warship was sighted very close to Bangladesh's Saint Martin's Island. Movement of vessels travelling by the river Naf en route Saint Martin's was halted due to incessant firing from Myanmar. Food shortage emerged in Saint Martin's and fishermen were too fearful to venture out with their boats. All this was very visible and Bangladesh's security concerns can in no way be dismissively brushed aside.

Bangladesh's government says that they are trying to resolve the issue diplomatically. The general secretary of the ruling party, Obaidul Quader, said, "Efforts will continue to be made to avoid war and resolve the issue by means of talks. But if any one of our people are injured, the attack will be given due reply. (Prothom Alo, 15 June 2024).

Bangladesh army chief SM Shafiuddin Ahmed said, "Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) and the Coast Guard is monitoring the violence along the Myanmar border. Bangladesh army is on alert in this regard too. They will take due measures if the situation deteriorates" (Amader Shomoy, 15 June 2024).

Saint Martin's in focus

The incidents centering Saint Martin's Island are drawing more attention than ever before because of two reasons. One is the consecutive successes of the rebel Arakan Army. The other is certain statements made by Bangladesh's prime minister Sheikh Hasina and a few other politicians some time mid last year regarding Saint Martin's Island.

Over the past few months the Arakan Army has taken over vast areas of Arakan territory. If they continue in their successes, they will soon gain control of the state capital Sittwe. To continue forging ahead, they will need to ensure that the Myanmar army cannot advance along the river Naf. From the measures being taken by the Arakan army it is evident that they do not consider Rohingya to be their supporters. They do not want the Rohingya armed groups to cross the Naf, enter Arakan and take position against them. And so they are staging all sorts of attacks on vessels moving down the river Naf to let their presence be known.

Meanwhile, the Myanmar army probably wants to tackle both the presence of the Arakan Army on the river Naf and the possible incursion of Rohingya from Bangladesh. And that is why over the past few weeks Myanmar warships have been visible. It cannot be said that these warships have been positioned there simply to make their presence felt. After all, in the past Myanmar's special attention and interest in Saint Martin's has been marked.

To be continued..................​

 

[Saif]

Myanmar's stance on Saint Martin's
We can go back a bit in order to discern Myanmar's stance on Saint Martin's Island. In 2018 Myanmar claimed that this was their island. In October that year, the website of Myanmar's population affair's ministry and another government website of the Myanmar Information Management Unit, depicted Saint Martin's as a part of Myanmar in their map. Myanmar's population affair's ministry website even gave a figure of the total number of Saint Martin's residents, taking that as part of Myanmar's population.

The Bangladesh government summoned the Myanmar ambassador in Dhaka and issued a note of protest, after which these details were removed, though for long they kept the colour of Saint Martin's the same as the rest of Myanmar on the map (The Wire, 14 October 2018). This effort was made seven years after the maritime boundary dispute with Myanmar was resolved in 2011 by means of the ITLOS ruling. That means even after accepting the international tribunal's ruling on the maritime boundary, they still had their eyes on Saint Martin's.

There could be another explanation. Saint Martin's Island may be an excuse to instigate armed conflict with Bangladesh. Such a situation had arisen in November 2008. Myanmar at the time had sent the South Korean company, Daewoo, 50 nautical miles southwest of Saint Martin's Island to explore for oil and gas. The naval forces of both sides took up a confrontational stance. The matter was finally diffused through diplomatic talks. That incident was before the ITLOS ruling on the maritime boundary. But with there being no difference in the incidents before and order the maritime boundary was demarcated, it seems that Myanmar hasn't changed it viewpoint regarding Saint Martin's.

Can Myanmar create such a situation where conflict with Bangladesh will be inevitable? This question can be raised because in February this year, the director general of RAB, M Khurshid Hossain, had said Myanmar from a long time back had been wanting to engage in war with Bangladesh (Prothom Alo, 24 February 2024). He had said that Myanmar was going out of its way to instigate conflict.

Certain security experts have commented that the civil war in Myanmar, particularly in Arakan, will not spill over into Bangladesh (Voice of America, 7 February 2024). But ever since the rebels groups started their comprehensive 'Operation 1027' from last October, this had spilled over in various ways into Bangladesh territory, creating a security threat for Bangladesh.

To be continued...............​

 

[Saif]

Is Saint Martin an excuse or an objective?

The second reason why attention should be paid to Saint Martin's Island is the statements made by Bangladesh's politicians in the domestic political scene. It began in June last year when Jashod leader Hasanun Huq Inu and Workers Party leader Rashed Khan Menon, allies of the government, said in parliament that the pressure from the US for free and fair election actually had nothing to do with the election, but was aimed at building a base on Saint Martin's. Menon said, "The US wants Saint Martin's" (Banik Barta, 15 June 2023). Inu said, "Why is America suddenly so interest? Do they want democracy? Or Saint Martin's?" (Kaler Kantha, 19 June 2023). Prime minister Sheikh Hasina at a press briefing said, "It's not difficult to remain in power by leasing Saint Martin's Island out" Prothom Alo, 21 June 2023).

Prime minister Sheikh Hasina said that the opposition BNP wanted to sell or lease Saint Martin's out so that they can come to power. In response to this state, the spokesperson of the US embassy in Dhaka Bryan Schiller said the US respects Bangladesh's sovereignty and that includes Saint Martin's. A similar statement was made by the US state department spokesperson Matthew Miller in response to a question posed by journalist Mushfique Fazal Ansarey. He said that the US had never spoken about taking over Saint Martin's Island (Prothom Alo, 28 June 2023).

Since the 1980's politicians have been talking about the US wanting to set up a base on Saint Martin's Island, but the US had also rejected such speculations. The US ambassador in Dhaka at the time, Mary Ann Peters at the time, on 2 July 2003 had said at a discussion held at the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS), the US has no plan, need or desire to establish a military base in Saint Martin's Islam, Chattogram or anywhere in Bangladesh.

To be continued............​

 

[Saif]

Even so, certain politicians of Bangladesh now and then make such remarks and the India media does so too. Back in 2012, when the US secretary of state at the time Hillary Clinton visited Bangladesh, the Indian Times Group's TV channel 'Time Now' in May claimed in a report aired around the end of May that the US wants to set up a military base in the Bay of Bengal to contain China's growing influence in the region, and this is a matter of concern for India. It was also said that the US wants a naval base in Chattogram.

Without any form of evidence, it was claimed that during her Bangladesh trip, Hillary Clinton had discussed the matter with Bangladesh officials. This comment was made at a discussion. Present at the discussion, the US state department spokesperson Victoria Nuland rejected the claim. Even so, immediately after this Rashed Khan Menon raised the issue in Bangladesh's parliament. The foreign minister at the time, Dipu Moni, said that she had no such conversation with Hillary (bdnews24.com, 1 June 2012).

The India media went as far as to say that the US was wanting this base for their Seventh Fleet. Based on that report, the Bangladesh foreign ministry issued a statement that this report was baseless. The US embassy also refuted the claim (The Daily Star, 2 June 2012). Interestingly, those claiming that a country wants to take lease or ownership of Saint Martin's Island, are not offering any tangible evidence.

The editorial of New Age on 23 June said that "Citizens need to know whether the United States has, in fact, sought to lay its hands on the island in the Bay of Bengal that constitutes the territory of Bangladesh orally or in writing. Who made the offer? To whom? When? Where? The government owes the citizens a statement, notifying and giving clarification on all such issues regarding Saint Martin's Island."

From the 1980's Bangladesh's military and security analysts have been saying that because of its size, shape, location and formation, Saint Martin's is not suitable for any sort of base to be set up there (Commodore Kazi Imdadul Huq, Controversy Surrounding the Alleged Lease of Saint martin's Island, The Security, 6 August 2023). The statement of the security analysts regarding the island is clear, "Saint Martin's Island is not that important in a strategic sense. It is a very small coral island. From a security angle too, the island is not very safe" (M Sakhawat Hossain, Prothom Alo, 16 June 2024).

Despite all of this when a section of Bangladesh's politicians, the India media and some Indian analysts raise questions about the US taking lease of Saint Martin's Island or building a base for the Seventh Fleet in Chattogram, it can't just be brushed off any cursory comments or anti-American statements. Questions can be asked as to whether such discussions concerning the tensions of Saint Martin's are indicative of some other sort of plot or move regarding the island's security. The objective may be to ease the path for some other outside power's direct or indirect presence in Bangladesh's maritime territory ostensibly for security reasons. It is imperative to ensure that the situation does not take such a turn,

* Ali Riaz is distinguished professor of the Department of Politics and Government at the Illinois State University in the US, nonresident senior fellow of the Atlantic Council, and president of the American Institute of Bangladesh Studies.​

 

[Saif]

Can Myanmar make a nuclear bomb?

Myanmar's alleged uranium trade raises concerns over nuclear bomb ambitions and rebel involvement, as reports suggest uranium smuggling by rebel groups and mafia connections.

en.prothomalo.com

Can Myanmar make a nuclear bomb?
Altaf Parvez
Published: 18 Jun 2024, 20: 35

It is being reported in the foreign media that uranium is being traded in Myanmar AFP

Neighbouring countries have no end of concern over Myanmar. Tension rises further if news is heard of uranium, an element used to make nuclear weapons, is being traded in Myanmar. This is happening currently. It is being reported in the foreign media that uranium is being traded in Myanmar. The question is, whether the matter is limited to trade only or they have any other programme as a country in this regard?

Old buzz--new tension

Ahead of recent newspaper reports, it was published that there are uranium mines in several places including the Shan state. They also get uranium as a by-product of gold mines. As a mineral resource, uranium has a demand worldwide as it is used in nuclear bombs.

Myanmar's Shan state is a rebel dominated area. In the area where it is said there is a uranium mine that is dominated by the 'Restoration Council of Shan State'. In the outside world, they are known as 'RCSS'. The name of its arms wing is Shan State Army-South. Its leader is Yawd Serk--a famous rebel leader.

The question is, how refined uranium is being found in Myanmar amid this uncertainty? Even of the matter of Myanmar creating a nuclear bomb is written off as a distant dream, the administration there has become weak due to the civil war raging there. In such circumstances, a subversive syndicate for an element like uranium is certain a matter of grave concern for countries in the neighbourhood.

The rise of Yawd Serk is from Golden Triangle's godfather Khun Sa's warrior society. On one hand he is one of the main characters of narcotics trade and Shan nationalism.

Name of Yawd Serk is being mentioned in the reports of uranium smuggling in Myanmar. It is being said he and his party RCSS gave responsibility to 'yakuza' mafia to sell uranium and collect modern arms including missiles.

US intelligence spent four years and identified as a fake Iranian general and were able to contact Takeshi Ebisawa of the syndicate in Thailand. The matter was leaked in this way. Ebisawa along with several of his associates are in custody of America.

Questions have naturally been raised over the veracity of these incidents. Questions have especially been raised about adding the yakuza of Japan to these incidents. Although these people are called terrorist mafia openly, the Japanese have a secret admiration for them. The administration in Japan also respects yakuzas for their nationalistic character.

Although they are mafia, they think they have a responsibility to look after the interests of Japan across Asia.

Yakuzas naturally don't view the West in a positive light. The West also criticises them strongly. However, much credible information of uranium smuggling has come from the US. They said the samples of uranium the Washington agents collected from the Japanese syndicate are suitable for making nuclear bombs.

Information published in 'Frontier Myanmar' says in connection with Yawd Serk, Ebisawa has 2000 kg Thorium-232 and 100 kg U-308 (Triuranium octaoxide) of Shan. With the help of Thai police, the US has examined samples of these in their labs.
​

To be continued..................

 

[Saif]

Tension multidimensional

If the speculations of uranium trade are true, there are two reasons for alarm. First, the government is not controlling all the mine areas. Some uranium mines are under the control of rebels- the rebels who are desperate for funds. As a commodity uranium would not be an unnatural source of funds for them. Also, there is a reason for tension over the mines controlled by the government as the military government is not transparent in its activities, and they are also trying to overcome the economic crisis by all means. Yawd Serk, meanwhile, denied his involvement. He has said he doesn't know what uranium is.

'Frontier Myanmar' in a report last April said uranium of Shan province seized from Japanese yakuzas was refined at the primary level. The question is, where did this refinery take place? Is there that technology inside Myanmar?

Earlier dreams of nuclear bombs

It was heard many times in the past that Myanmar has a 'dream' to make a nuclear bomb. The country, which has uranium, has an advantage for this aspiration. Myanmar's armed forces Tatmadaw once had an 'atomic unit'. Besides, it is heard that North Korea and Russia have cooperation in this regard. But there was a question over the credibility of these activities of the country.

Moreover, during the rule of Aung San Su Kiy, Myanmar joined an international initiative to stop the test of nuclear bombs. In the face of global boycott in October 2022, Russia declared to establish a nuclear power plant for 'peaceful necessity' Recently, there is news, Bamar army officers have taken training in Moscow and some of them are studying this technology. In such a backdrop, the recent news of the uranium trade has spread tension all around.

News for the first time was published in 2004 that the US maintained strong vigilance over Myanmar for making nuclear bombs. Washington suspects that North Korea may provide cooperation with Bamar generals in this programme.

In November 2008, doubt intensified as a 17-member team led by Myanmar's General Soe Win visited Pyongyang and a location where North Korea is believed to have stored their nuclear arms in a valley. In 2010, a general of Tatmadaw first admitted they were trying to get this technology from North Korea.

Meanwhile, the Myanmar government in a statement said they have no intention to make nuclear bombs, but they have the right to develop this technology for 'peaceful necessity'.

After this statement, the doubt has not decreased. At least, the incident of identifying the Japanese syndicate proves that the US continues its surveillance.

However, nothing can be said finally about the mystery of nuclear power in Myanmar. The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) is a famous organisation to resolve any tension on nuclear security. This organisation in an investigation has said they have not found any proof that Myanmar has a project for making nuclear arms. This does not mean that Myanmar does not have such a type of project. In particular, the country's relation with North Korea intensifies the suspicion.

The question is, how refined uranium is being found in Myanmar amid this uncertainty? Even of the matter of Myanmar creating a nuclear bomb is written off as a distant dream, the administration there has become weak due to the civil war raging there. In such circumstances, a subversive syndicate for an element like uranium is certain a matter of grave concern for countries in the neighbourhood.

* Altaf Parvez is a researcher on history.​