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[🇨🇳] China vs USA

[🇨🇳] China vs USA
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G   Chinese Defense

US-China trade: peace, not war, to benefit the world
Hedayet Ahmed
Published :
Apr 20, 2025 22:15
Updated :
Apr 20, 2025 22:15

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The reciprocal tariff, imposed by President Donald Tramp, has fuelled tension in the international trade leaving the financial markets volatile across the globe. Though he took a break for three months apparently sensing the gravity of his crazy decision, tariffs on China was increased more, a move termed as bullying by many.

But questions have been raised whether such bullying will do any good to the United States (US) or a stable and peaceful bilateral trade between the two most powerful economies can offer win-win situation for both.


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A deeper analysis of the of the bilateral trade between these two countries shows that gains from economic and trade relations between China and the US are generally balanced and China's trade deficit with the US in travel services has expanded continuously.

It is also found that China's payments of intellectual property royalties to the US have increased steadily, and at the end of the day China and the US both can gain from bilateral cooperation in trade and economy.

BILATERAL TRADE IN GOODS: China-US two-way trade in goods has grown rapidly. Statistics from the United Nations (UN) show that in 2024, the volume of trade in goods between China and the US reached $688.28 billion, which was 275 times the volume of the trade in 1979, when diplomatic relations were established between the two countries, and more than eight times the volume of the trade in 2001, when China joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Currently, the US is China's largest goods export destination and the second-largest source of imports. In 2024, China's exports to the US and imports from the US accounted for 14.7 per cent and 6.3 per cent of China's total exports and imports for the year. China is the US's third-largest export destination and second-largest source of imports. In 2024, US exports to China and imports from China accounted for 7.0 per cent and 13.8 per cent of the US total exports and imports for the year respectively.

US exports to China have grown much faster than its exports to the rest of the world. Since China's entry into the WTO, US exports to China have grown rapidly, making China an important export market for the US. According to UN statistics, in 2024, US goods exports to China reached US$143.55 billion, representing a 648.4 per cent increase from US$19.18 billion in 2001, which far exceeded its overall export growth of 183.1 per cent during the same period.

China is an important export market for US agricultural products, integrated circuits, coal, liquefied petroleum gas, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles. China is the largest export market for US soybeans and cotton, the second-largest export market for integrated circuits and coal, and the third-largest export market for medical devices, liquefied petroleum gas, and automobiles. UN data shows that in 2024, China was the destination for 51.7 per cent of US soybean exports, 29.7 per cent of its cotton exports, 17.2 per cent of its integrated circuit exports, 10.7 per cent of its coal exports, 10.0 per cent of its liquefied petroleum gas exports, 9.4 per cent of its medical equipment exports, and 8.3 per cent of its passenger motor vehicle exports.

China-US bilateral trade is highly complementary as the two countries play to their comparative strengths.

Chinese customs data show that in 2024, China's top five export categories to the US were electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof, mechanical appliances and parts thereof, furniture, toys, and plastics, accounting for 57.2 per cent of its total exports to the US. China's top five import categories from the US were mineral fuels, mechanical appliances and parts, electrical machinery and equipment and parts, optical instruments and apparatus, and oil seeds including soybeans, accounting for 52.8 per cent of its total imports from the US. Machinery and electrical products are particularly important in China-US bilateral trade, exhibiting an evident characteristic of intra-industry trade.

TRADE IN SERVICES: The US service industry is well developed with a complete range of sectors and strong international competitiveness. Overall, as the economy continues to develop and the standard of living rises, the demand for services in China is expanding significantly, leading to rapid growth in service trade between China and the US. According to the US Department of Commerce (USDOC), between 2001 and 2023, two-way trade in services between China and the US expanded from US$8.95 billion to US$66.86 billion, representing a seven-fold increase. China's statistics show the US as its second-largest trade partner in services in 2023, while US statistics show China as its fifth-largest services export market.

The US stands as the largest source of China's deficit in service trade, with the deficit generally exhibiting an upward trend. According to the USDOC, from 2001 to 2023, US service exports to China expanded from US$5.63 billion to US$46.71 billion, an 8.3-fold increase. The US annual service trade surplus with China expanded 11.5 times to US$26.57 billion. In 2019, the number soared to US$39.7 billion. In 2023, China continued to be the biggest contributor to the US service trade surplus, representing roughly 9.5 per cent of the total. China's service trade deficit with the US is primarily concentrated in three areas: travel (including education), intellectual property royalties, and transportation.

China's trade deficit with the US in travel services has expanded continuously. Data from the USDOC show that in 2023, Chinese tourists made approximately 1.1 million visits to the US, with their spending accounting for 14 per cent of US service exports to China. Tourism, medical treatment, and studying abroad remain the primary categories of service trade consumption for those travelling from China to the US. According to the USDOC, US exports of travel services (including education) to China grew from US$2.31 billion in 2001 to US$20.23 billion in 2023, representing an 8.8-fold increase.

China's payments of intellectual property royalties to the US have increased steadily. In 2023, intellectual property royalties remain a primary source of revenue for US service trade, accounting for 13.1 per cent of its service trade revenues. The intellectual property royalties the US receives from China represent one-fifth of the total royalties obtained from the Asia-Pacific region and account for 5 per cent of US global intellectual property royalty revenue.

TRADE BALANCE ISSUE: The trade balance in goods between China and the US is both an inevitable result of the structural issues in the US economy and a consequence of the comparative advantages and international division of labour between the two countries. China does not deliberately pursue a trade surplus. As a matter of fact, the ratio of China's current account surplus to GDP has decreased from 9.9 per cent in 2007 to 2.2 per cent in 2024.

A comprehensive and in-depth assessment is required to objectively evaluate whether China-US bilateral trade is balanced, as it cannot be based solely on trade in goods. In today's context of expanding economic globalisation and the prevalence of internationalised production, the scope of bilateral economic and trade relations has long since extended beyond trade in goods. Services and the local sales of domestic enterprises' branches in the other country (local sales generated by two-way investment) should also be included. When the three factors of trade in goods, trade in services, and the local sales of domestic enterprises' branches in the other country are taken into account, it can be seen that the economic and trade benefits gained by China and the US are roughly balanced.

Data from the USDOC show that in 2023, the US registered a surplus of US$26.57 billion in service trade -- a notable advantage for the US. Furthermore, in 2022, the sales revenue of the US-owned enterprises in China reached US$490.52 billion, significantly exceeding the US$78.64 billion in sales revenue generated by Chinese-owned enterprises in the US. The gap of US$411.88 billion underscores the more pronounced advantage of American enterprises in multinational operations.

Interestingly, the US trade deficit has increased globally, while the proportion attributable to China has decreased. According to the data of the BEA, USDOC, China's share of the total US deficit of trade in goods has fallen in each of the past six years, from 47.5 per cent in 2018 to 24.6 per cent in 2024, while the US trade deficit with other countries and regions has increased substantially in the same period.

In 2024, the US international deficit of trade in goods reached US$1.2 trillion, an increase of 13 per cent year on year, the fourth consecutive year that had exceeded US$1 trillion.

China's foreign trade is characterised by large volumes of both imports and exports, a pattern mirrored in China-US trade. The value-added accrued by China from much of the export of processed manufactured goods represents only a minor fraction of the total value of all commodities. However, current trade statistics methods calculate China's exports based on their gross value (the full value of goods exported by China to the US). Calculated by the trade in value-added method, the US trade deficit with China would significantly decrease.

China expanding imports demonstrates China's proactive commitment as a responsible major country and constitutes a significant contribution to global economic development. Since November 2018, the China International Import Expo (CIIE) has been held annually in Shanghai. Both the number of participating countries and the intended transaction value have shown year-on-year growth, with cumulative intended transaction value exceeding US$500 billion. In 2024, China's imports totalled RMB18.4 trillion, up 2.3 per cent year on year, with the value of imports reaching a record high. China has maintained its position as the world's second-largest import market for the 16th consecutive year.

China has systematically expanded the potential of its vast market, providing increased opportunities for countries worldwide. In 2024, China imported RMB9.86 trillion of goods from the Belt and Road Initiative partner countries, up 2.7 per cent, which accounted for 53.6 per cent of the country's total import value. Since December 1, 2024, China has implemented a policy granting zero-tariff treatment for 100 per cent of tariff lines to all least developed countries with which it has diplomatic relations, which led to an 18.1 per cent growth in imports from relevant countries in the first month. In the current period and for some time to come, China possesses substantial potential for import growth. It is projected that by 2030, the cumulative value of imports from developing countries alone is expected to exceed US$8 trillion.

Actively expanding imports is also a key part of China's strategy for high-level opening up. It will continue to use the major platforms such as the CIIE, China Import and Export Fair, China International Fair for Trade in Services, and China International Consumer Products Expo to boost imports. China will also develop national-level demonstration zones for the creative promotion of imports, steadily facilitate growth in imports, and explore more potential. The goal is to transform China's vast market into a shared global market, injecting new impetus into the world economy.

INVESTMENT & COOPERATION: China and the US are important bilateral investment partners. The US is a major source of foreign investment for China. According to the statistics of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), by the end of 2023, the actual accumulated amount of US investment in China was US$98.23 billion.

In 2023, the US set up 1,920 new enterprises in China, with an actual investment of US$3.36 billion, up 52 per cent from the previous year.

The US is also an important investment destination for China, and Chinese companies' direct investment in the US has grown rapidly and significantly. The statistics released by MOFCOM show that by the end of 2023, China's direct investment in the US had reached roughly US$83.69 billion, covering 18 sectors of the national economy. Chinese companies have established over 5,100 overseas enterprises in the US, with more than 85,000 local employees. China has also made a significant financial investment in the US. According to the US Department of the Treasury, as of the end of December 2024, China owned US$759 billion of US treasury bonds, as the second-largest foreign creditor of the US.

China-US economic and trade cooperation has created a large number of employment opportunities for the US. According to an estimate by the US-China Business Council, the number of American jobs supported by exports to China was 931,000 in 2022, ranking third among all countries, behind only Canada and Mexico.

The trade cooperation has also created a large quantity of business opportunities and profits for American enterprises. China has a vast market and continuously growing consumer demand. For example, Tesla's sales in China have continued to grow, surpassing 657,000 units in 2024, up 8.8 per cent year on year to a new historical high. More than 10 American insurance companies have subsidiaries in China. American financial institutions, such as Goldman Sachs, American Express, Bank of America, and MetLife, have achieved substantial investment returns as strategic investors in Chinese financial institutions.

Bilateral economic and trade cooperation has facilitated the upgrading of American industries. Through cooperation with China, American multinational corporations have boosted their international competitiveness by integrating the strengths of resources from both countries. Apple designs and develops mobile phones in the US, assembles and manufactures them in China, and sells them in global markets. Tesla has established wholly-owned mega factories in China, expanded production capacity, and exported to global markets. China has taken on certain production processes for American enterprises, which enabled the US to allocate resources such as capital to innovation and management, and focus on the development of high-end manufacturing and modern services. It has driven US industry towards higher value-added and more technologically advanced sectors, reducing US domestic pressure for energy consumption and environmental protection.

The cooperation has also brought tangible benefits to American consumers. The US has imported from China a large quantity of consumer goods, intermediate goods, and capital goods, which has supported the development of the supply and industrial chains of the US manufacturing industry, provided US consumers with more choices, lowered their cost of living, and increased the real purchasing power of the American people, especially the low and middle-income groups. It has also generated substantial business opportunities and profits for Chinese companies. By investing in the US, which is the world's largest consumer market and the most mature capital market, Chinese firms can expand their sales channels, increase the impact of their international brands, attract global clients and partners, and access financing more easily, thereby supporting rapid business growth.

US companies in China have provided experience for their Chinese counterparts in technical innovation, market management, and institutional innovation, driving Chinese companies to accelerate their transformation and upgrading and improve industry efficiency and product quality.

END NOTE: The Trump tariff, no doubt, severely violates World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, severely undermines the rules-based multilateral trading system, and disrupts the global economic order. The Chinese government strongly condemns and resolutely opposes such move.

Their spokesman said, by taking such action, the US defies the fundamental laws of economics and market principles, disregards the balanced outcomes achieved through multilateral trade negotiations, ignores the fact that the US has long benefited substantially from international trade, and weaponises tariffs to exert maximum pressure for selfish interests. This is a typical act of unilateralism, protectionism and economic bullying. Under the guise of "reciprocity" and "fairness," the United States is playing a zero-sum game to pursue in essence "America First" and "American exceptionalism."

China is an ancient civilisation and a land of propriety and righteousness and the people in the US have shown extraordinary entrepreneurship. So, the joint collaboration on economy and trade between the two superpowers is needed for bringing back stability in the global trade and economy.

Hedayet Ahmed is an analyst on political economy.​
 
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China waives tariffs on some US goods, but denies Trump's claim that talks are underway
REUTERS
Published :
Apr 25, 2025 21:01
Updated :

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US President Donald Trump holds a chart next to US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick as Trump delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, DC, US, April 2, 2025. Photo : REUTERS/Carlos Barria

China exempted some US imports from its steep tariffs in a sign on Friday that the trade war between the two countries could be easing, though China quickly knocked down US President Donald Trump's assertion that negotiations were underway.

Business groups said China has allowed some US-made pharmaceuticals to enter the country without paying the 125 per cent duties that Beijing imposed earlier this month in response to Trump's 145 per cent tariffs on US imports.

Also, a list of 131 product categories said to be under consideration for exemptions was circulating among some businesses and trade groups. Reuters could not verify the list, which includes vaccines, chemicals and jet engines, and China has not yet communicated publicly on the issue.

Trump's administration has in recent days signaled it is looking to de-escalate the confrontation between the world's two largest economies, and Trump himself told TIME magazine that talks were taking place and that Chinese President Xi Jinping had called him.

"I don't think it's a sign of weakness on his behalf," he said.

China denied that discussions were happening.

"China and the US are NOT having any consultation or negotiation on #tariffs. The US should stop creating confusion," the Chinese Embassy in Washington wrote on social media.

In addition to the steep tariffs on China, Trump has announced targeted tariffs on dozens of other countries, which he has suspended until July 9. That has set off a scramble among US trading partners to strike individual trade deals with Washington before the deadline -- a tall order, given that past trade deals have typically taken years to negotiate.

Trump told reporters at the White House that he was very close to a deal with Japan. That is seen by analysts as a "test case" for other bilateral trade agreements, though talks could be difficult. Some expect Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Trump to announce a pact when they meet at the G7 summit in Canada in June.

Trump separately told TIME that he had made "200 deals" that would be completed within three to four weeks, though he declined to provide specifics. He said he would consider it a "total victory" if tariffs were still 20 per cent to 50 per cent a year from now.

The office of the US Trade Representative said it had held a productive meeting with South Korea on Friday.

Trump has argued that his thicket of trade barriers will revive US manufacturing industries that have been hollowed out by global competition. Economists, however, broadly warn that they would lead to higher prices for US consumers and increase the risk of recession.

In addition to the country-specific tariffs, Trump has also imposed a blanket 10 per cent tariff on all other US imports and higher duties on steel, aluminum and autos. He has also floated additional industry-specific levies on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

European and Asian stocks headed for a second straight week of gains on Friday and the dollar eyed its first weekly rise in more than a month, as investors took comfort from signs the US and China were prepared to pull back from their trade war. Wall Street's main indexes opened slightly lower.​
 
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US wants to start tariff talks with China, state media says
REUTERS
Published :
May 01, 2025 19:45
Updated :
May 01, 2025 19:45

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A China Shipping container is seen at the port of Oakland, as trade tensions escalate over U.S. tariffs with China, in Oakland, California, U.S., April 10, 2025. Photo : REUTERS/Carlos Barria/Files

The United States has approached China seeking talks over President Donald Trump's 145 per cent tariffs, a social media account affiliated with Chinese state media said on Thursday, potentially signalling Beijing's openness to negotiations.

"The US has proactively reached out to China through multiple channels, hoping to hold discussions on the tariff issue," Yuyuan Tantian said in a post published on its official Weibo social media account, citing anonymous sources.

US officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, also expressed hope for progress in easing trade tensions.

Hassett told CNBC that there have been "loose discussions all over both governments" about the tariffs and China's easing of duties on some US goods last week was a sign of progress.

Beijing has made little effort to contain its anger at the tariffs, which it says are tantamount to bullying and cannot stop the rise of the world's second-largest economy. Instead, it has directed its fury at rallying public and global condemnation of the import curbs - showing no interest in a reprieve.

That said, alongside leveraging its propaganda machine to hit back at the duties, China has quietly created a list of US-made products it will exempt from its retaliatory 125 per cent tariffs - including select pharmaceuticals, microchips and jet engines - Reuters has reported, to ease the duties' impact.

Bessent mentioned no specific talks during a Fox Business Network interview, but said that high tariffs of 145 per cent on the US side and 125 per cent on the Chinese side needed to be de-escalated for negotiations to begin.

"I am confident that the Chinese will want to reach a deal. And as I said, this is going to be a multi-step process," Bessent said. "First, we need to de-escalate, and then over time, we will start focusing on a larger trade deal."

He said that among the first steps would be to revisit China's failure to make good on purchase commitments for American goods made as part of Trump's 2020 "Phase 1" trade deal that ended his first-term trade war with Beijing.

That deal called for China to increase purchases of American manufactured and agricultural products and services by $200 billion annually over two years, but the COVID-19 pandemic hit just after its signing.

Bessent also said that "insidious" non-tariff trade barriers and intellectual property theft also would be part of negotiations over tariffs with China, adding: "everything is on the table for the economic relationship."

TARIFFS TOO HIGH

Once Trump's tariffs topped 35 per cent they became prohibitively high for Chinese exporters.

Nomura Securities said that some 16 million Chinese people could lose their jobs once the long-term ripple effects of a 50% drop in Chinese exports to the US work their way through the economy.

Bessent said the pressure was on China because it is more dependent on exports to the U.S. than vice versa.

"They sell us about five times more than we sell them. So their factories are closing down as we speak," Bessent said. "We're going into the holiday season. Orders are placed for that now. So if those orders aren't placed, it could be devastating for the Chinese."

Still, Beijing has been adamant it will stand and fight, rather than rush to the negotiation table - with the foreign ministry likening yielding to Trump's tariffs to "drinking poison."

"Before the US takes any substantive action, China has no need to engage in talks with the US," the post from Yuyuan Tantian added, citing anonymous experts. "However, if the US wishes to initiate contact, there is no harm at this stage for China to engage."

"China needs to observe closely, even force out the US' true intentions, to maintain the initiative in both negotiation and confrontation," it concluded.

Trump said in a US media interview published last Friday that his administration was talking with China to reach a tariff deal and that Chinese President Xi Jinping had called him. Beijing last week repeatedly denied such talks were taking place, accusing Washington of "misleading the public".

NO KNOWN TALKS

Guo Jiakun, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, said on Wednesday: "as far as I know, there have been no consultations or negotiations between China and the US on tariffs".

Chinese officials have consistently stated that Beijing is open to talks, with the caveat that "dialogue and negotiation must be based on equality, respect and mutual benefit."

Yuyuan Tantian is not among China's most authoritative state media outlets. The Global Times, which is owned by the newspaper of the governing Communist Party, People's Daily, has often been first to report China's next steps in trade disagreements over the past few years.

Trump said on Wednesday he believed there was a "very good chance" his administration could do a deal with China, hours after Xi called on officials to take action to adjust to changes in the international environment, without explicitly mentioning the United States.​
 
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Hassett says seeing positive developments around US-China trade meeting
REUTERS
Published :
May 09, 2025 19:25
Updated :
May 09, 2025 19:26

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National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett speaks to reporters at the White House in Washington, DC, US, April 18, 2025. Photo : REUTERS/Nathan Howard/Files

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on Friday signs in advance of weekend US-China trade talks in Switzerland are promising and positive.

Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said he spoke with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as they were leaving for the meeting Thursday night.

"Everything that's been going on with the meeting in Switzerland is very promising to us," Hassett said in an interview with CNBC. "We're seeing extreme respect, treating both sides with respect. We're seeing collegiality and also sketches of positive developments."​
 
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US ‘optimistic’ amid trade talks with China
Agence France-Presse . Geneva 11 May, 2025, 22:41

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Washington expressed optimism as talks with top Chinese officials continued for a second day Sunday in a bid to de-escalate trade tensions sparked by president Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff rollout. | AFP photo

Washington expressed optimism as talks with top Chinese officials continued for a second day Sunday in a bid to de-escalate trade tensions sparked by president Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff rollout.

As the two days of high-level negotiations in Geneva neared an end, US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick told CNN Sunday the administration was ‘optimistic that things will work out well’.

That comment came after Trump posted on Truth Social following the first day of negotiations that Saturday’s discussions had been ‘very good’, deeming them ‘a total reset negotiated in a friendly, but constructive, manner’.

Beijing had yet to comment Sunday, but on Saturday Chinese state news agency Xinhua described the talks as ‘an important step in promoting the resolution of the issue’.

The closed-door meetings between US treasury secretary Scott Bessent, trade representative Jamieson Greer and Chinese vice-premier He Lifeng are taking place at the residence of the Swiss ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva.

After taking a two-hour lunch break, the delegations returned to the discrete villa with sky-blue shutters on the left bank of Lake Geneva at around 3:30pm (1330 GMT), according to an AFP journalist on site.

Lutnick told CNN the teams were hard at work on negotiations that are ‘really important’ for both sides, but did not provide further detail on the contents of the talks.

The discussions are the first time senior officials from the world’s two largest economies have met face-to-face to tackle the thorny topic of trade since Trump slapped steep new levies on China last month, sparking a robust retaliation from Beijing.

‘These talks reflect that the current state of the trade relations with these extremely high tariffs is ultimately in the interests of neither the United States nor China,’ Citigroup global chief economist Nathan Sheets told AFP, calling the tariffs a ‘lose-lose proposition.’

The tariffs imposed by Trump on the Asian manufacturing giant since the start of the year currently total 145 per cent, with cumulative US duties on some Chinese goods reaching a staggering 245 per cent.

In retaliation, China put 125 per cent tariffs on US goods.

Ahead of the meeting, Trump signalled he might lower the tariffs, suggesting on social media that an ’80 per cent Tariff on China seems right!’

However, his press secretary Karoline Leavitt later clarified that the United States would not lower tariffs unilaterally, and that China would also need to make concessions.

Going into the meeting, both sides played down expectations of a major change in trade relations, with Bessent underlining a focus on ‘de-escalation’ and not a ‘big trade deal,’ and Beijing insisting the United States must ease tariffs first.

The fact the talks are even happening ‘is good news for business, and for the financial markets,’ said Gary Hufbauer, a senior non-resident fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE).

But Hufbauer cautioned he was ‘very sceptical that there will be any return to something like normal US-China trade relations,’ with even a tariff rate of 70 to 80 per cent still potentially halving bilateral trade.

China’s vice premier went into the discussions buoyed by Friday’s news that China’s exports rose last month despite the trade war.

The unexpected development was attributed by experts to a re-routing of trade to Southeast Asia to mitigate US tariffs.

Among some of the more moderate Trump officials like Bessent and Lutnick, ‘there’s a realisation that China is better equipped to deal with this trade war than the US,’ said Hufbauer.

The Geneva meeting comes after Trump unveiled a trade agreement with Britain, the first deal with any country since he unleashed his blitz of global tariffs.

The five-page, non-binding deal confirmed to nervous investors that the United States is willing to negotiate sector-specific relief from recent duties, but maintained a 10 per cent baseline levy on most British goods.

Following the US-UK trade announcement, analysts have voiced pessimism about the likelihood negotiations will lead to any significant changes in the US-China trade relationship.

‘It’s nice that they’re talking. But my expectations for the actual outcomes of this first round of talks is pretty limited,’ Sheets from Citigroup said.

In his Truth Social post, Trump said the talks had made ‘GREAT PROGRESS!!’

‘We want to see, for the good of both China and the US, an opening up of China to American business,’ he added.​
 
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US-China trade truce and their existential conflict
Muhammad Mahmood
Published :
May 18, 2025 00:16
Updated :
May 18, 2025 00:16

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The US and China have brokered a temporary mutual reduction in tariffs for 90 days in a bid to deescalate a simmering trade war initiated by US president Donald Trump against China and other countries around the world. Trump's trade war has roiled financial markets and threatened global growth. During the pause, both parties agreed that talks on economic and trade issues would continue toward an agreement but there were no suggestions how the deep underlying issues might be resolved. This agreement is very similar to the one worked out with the UK recently which was in effect a framework for an eventual agreement with details to be finalised later.

Trump imposed a 145 per cent tariff on imports from China last month and as the US steps up its trade war, China also was hitting hard almost matching the US tariff hikes with 125 per cent tariffs on imports from the US as well as restricting exports of critical minerals. Beijing officials described the tariffs as "blackmail". China also added US entities to its export control list, restricting their ability to do business in China. In fact, China was the only country to retaliate in response to the US tariff measures.

The meeting marked the first talks between China and the US since Trump announced tariffs on all the US' trading partners on April 2, later suspending them for 90 days for every country except China. The agreement while temporary, marks the first concrete step to de-escalate tensions that have been rising since Trump took office on January 20 and almost immediately began imposing tariffs on China.

However, Trump gave a positive reading of the talks even before they had concluded, saying the two sides negotiated "a total reset …..in a friendly, but constructive manner". Speaking after the conclusion of the talks with the Chinese officials in Geneva, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on last Monday that the US would cut existing tariffs of 145 per cent to 30 per cent. Despite the significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese imports, when combined with the existing tariffs imposed during Trump's first term as President, the effective average tariff rate would exceed 40 per cent.

China on its part will lower its duties on US imports to 10 per cent from 125 percent. China has also agreed to some easing of restrictions on the export of critical minerals to the US, which were imposed in response to the Trump tariffs. Both reductions took effect from last Wednesday.

Both sides were also in agreement that neither side wanted to decouple and what had occurred was the equivalent of a trade embargo, and neither side wanted that. They announced that "the parties will establish a mechanism to continue discussion about economic and trade issues".

The trade war brought nearly US$600 billion in two-way trade to a standstill, disrupting supply chains, sparking fears of stagflation and rising unemployment in the US. The Chinese economy will also get negatively affected if the US tariff rate remains as it stands now. But China has diversified its export destinations since 2020 and much less exposed to the US market. At the start of the first Trump trade war in 2018, US-bound exports from China accounted for 19.8 per cent of total exports and by 2023 that figure had fallen to 12.8 per cent.

Very recently the IMF has provided its revised growth estimates for the US and China. The revised growth estimate for the US now stands at 1.7 per cent for 2025, down from 2.7 per cent estimated in January. For China also the revised growth estimate now is 4 per cent for this year instead of 4.6 per cent estimated early this year.

This agreement along with the 90-day pause to his "reciprocal tariffs" (RT) demonstrates Trump and his trade advisers' belated realisation that his liberation day tariff measures threaten significant damage to the US economy and his domestic authority. Also, his backpedal from a full-scale trade confrontation with China is an implicit recognition that his tariffs will hurt the US economy.

The trade truce has sent a clear message to the US that in a deeply interconnected global economy it cannot achieve its economic, political or strategic objectives against China by economic means as reflected in China holding its ground firm in the face of massive US economic onslaught and compelling the US to change its course.

It is important to note that the trade war truce came amid growing concerns over the bleak global economic outlook resulting from the trade war, which has disrupted supply chains, slowed down trade flows between the two countries. Chinese exports to the US plummeted by 21 per cent in April indicating that within weeks the tariffs have already resulted in significant reduction in the volume of goods arriving in the US from China. As a result, there were growing fears of supply shortages of consumer goods in shops in the US, and this has also added to the urgency for the meeting.

Markets have risen sharply on the news of the tariff pull-back. US stock futures and the US dollar surged, while gold tumbled, inflation eased. Financial markets in Asia responded positively; Hong Kong Hang Seng index rebounded, easing losses sparked by the RT hikes announced on April 2.

Markets in the US have responded positively to the event last weekend as if the trade war is over. But the fact of the matter is the estimated effective average tariff in the US now stands at 17.8 per cent in comparison to 2.4 per cent average tariff before Trump assumed office in January. This rate is the highest rate since 1934.

The Financial Times in an editorial described the tariff pause agreement as an "uneasy détente" without any guarantee that the three-month pause would lead to a "enduring case-fire" and there was no indication that the talks would help to bring down the US trade deficit with China.

Though rarely stated outright, Trump aims to break the dominance of China's export-led economic model. It is also a part of his strategic initiative to reshape global trading system to forestall China emerging as the dominant regional power in East Asia.

The Wall Street Journal, a mouthpiece of the US corporate establishment remains staunchly opposed to Trump tariffs. In an editorial it noted that Trump's approach had hurt his ability to rallying a united front against China because his tariffs targeted against allies had eroded trust in the US' economic and political reliability.

The US and China are also amid a battle for currency dominance, with the Chinese yuan or renminbi gaining considerable power over the last decade in global trade as countries seek less reliance on the US dollar as the US government ruthlessly weaponises its currency. China is also trying to woo other countries, presenting itself as a stable partner in contrast to a capricious US.

Also, trade decisions on this scale are not about trade alone. In his executive order, Trump declared that "large and persistent trade deficits constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and the economy of the United States". The key underlying objective in the conflict is the suppression of the economic rise, hence also military capabilities of China. The US considers it as an existential issue if the US is to remain the global hegemon.

The close integration of the global economy over the last 30+ years makes it impossible for the US to achieve its objectives against the rise of China by economic means alone as that will cause damage to the US economy as well. The truce is viewed by some strategic analysts as a strategic retreat by the US rather than any strategic realignment.

The conflict predates Trump's appearance on the US political scene. The trade truce in no way, therefore, signals a policy shift in the drive towards achieving its long-term broader objectives against China which has a bipartisan support in the country. So, the pause, truce or détente whichever way one may like to designate the agreement reached between the US and China last Monday in Geneva is nowhere near resolving the existential conflict between them.​
 
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The post-truce state of US-China trade looks dire

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People browse for iPhones at an Apple store in the Huangpu district in Shanghai on April 11, 2025. Photo: AFP

Markets appear to be writing off the latest Sino-American trade conflict as quickly as they priced it in. China's benchmark CSI 300 index is up 1.4 percent this year, marking a full recovery from its sharp drop in early April after President Donald Trump announced a 34 percent reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods, which swiftly spiralled into triple-digit retaliatory levies. The latter has been cancelled and the former suspended for 90 days, leaving the official reciprocal charge at 10 percent, level with other countries.

In reality, it's much higher. Beijing's burden was already heavier, having started out Trump's second term with effective tariffs of roughly 11 percent incurred during his previous trade war. Almost immediately, the White House then slapped another 20 percent on Chinese goods, citing concerns over fentanyl. That, stacked atop the other blanket levies, brings the country's total to more than 40 percent.

The administration did carve out some exemptions for smartphones, computers and other electronics. Factor in both those but also new global tariffs on products like steel, and the effective rate is almost 32 percent, per Fitch. That's far higher than the global average of about 13 percent, the rating agency estimates.

Optimists may take heart from the speed with which Beijing and Washington scrapped the retaliatory levies. So far, though, aside from a modest and preliminary pact with the UK, there is little indication that US. discussions with its other trading partners are yielding much real progress ahead of their 90-day deadline in early July.

Worse, the electronics carve-out on April 13 was followed the next day by a national security probe into semiconductor imports. If that ends up shrinking the loophole and pushing the effective rate on China higher, it will complicate already fraught trade talks.

Those with skin in the game don't expect a quick deal restoring the status quo ante. Apple intends to shift production of most US-bound iPhones to India, Reuters reported last month. Last week, Allan Wong, CEO of Hong Kong's Vtech — one of the world's largest toymakers and a supplier for Walmart — told the Financial Times that he planned to shift all production for the US market out of China by the end of next year.

Other manufacturers previously battered by protracted uncertainty during Trump's 2018-2020 trade war are planning similar moves, Nikkei and others have reported. Traders may be betting on a quick resolution, but that's at odds with the dire situation on the ground.

The effective US tariff rate on imports from China currently stands at 31.8 percent, per a report from ratings agency Fitch on May 13, the highest of any trading partner.

That's after President Donald Trump's administration on May 12 suspended for 90 days the 34 percent US reciprocal tariff on goods from the People's Republic and cancelled triple-digit retaliatory levies imposed last month.

The White House exempted smartphones, computers and some other electronics from reciprocal tariffs on April 13, but opened a national security probe into semiconductor imports the following day.

Allan Wong, CEO of Hong Kong-based VTech, one of the world's largest toymakers and supplier for Walmart, told the Financial Times on May 14 that despite the trade truce his company planned to shift all production for the American market out of China by the end of 2026.​
 
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US vows to ‘aggressively’ oust Chinese students
AFP Washington
Published: 29 May 2025, 12: 50

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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.File photo: Reuters

President Donald Trump’s administration on Wednesday vowed to “aggressively” revoke visas of Chinese students, one of the largest sources of revenue for American universities, in his latest broadside against US higher education.

The announcement by Secretary of State Marco Rubio marked a show of defiance after China criticised his decision a day earlier to suspend visa appointments for students worldwide at least temporarily.

The Trump administration has already sought to end permission for all international students at Harvard University, which has rebuffed pressure from the president related to student protests.

The United States will “aggressively revoke visas for Chinese students, including those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields,” Rubio said in a statement.

“We will also revise visa criteria to enhance scrutiny of all future visa applications from the People’s Republic of China and Hong Kong,” he said.

Young Chinese people have long been crucial to US universities, which rely on international students paying full tuition.

China sent 277,398 students in the 2023-24 academic year, although India for the first time in years surpassed it, according to a State Department-backed report of the Institute of International Education.

Trump in his previous term also took aim at Chinese students but focused attention on those in sensitive fields or with explicit links with the military.

It was unclear to what extent Rubio’s statement marked an escalation.

Global uncertainty

China’s foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning on Wednesday said Beijing urged Washington to “safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of international students, including those from China.”

Rubio has already trumpeted the revocation of thousands of visas, largely to international students who were involved in activism critical of Israel.

A cable signed by Rubio on Tuesday ordered US embassies and consulates not to allow “any additional student or exchange visa... appointment capacity until further guidance is issued” on ramping up screening of applicants’ social media accounts.

The measures also threaten to pressure students from countries friendly to the United States.

In Taiwan, a PhD student set to study in California complained of “feeling uncertain” by the visa pause.

“I understand the process may be delayed but there is still some time before the semester begins in mid-August,” said the 27-year-old student who did not want to be identified.

“All I can do now is wait and hope for the best.”

Protests at Harvard

Trump is furious at Harvard for rejecting his administration’s push for oversight on admissions and hiring, amid the president’s claims the school is a hotbed of anti-Semitism and “woke” liberal ideology.

A judge paused the order to bar foreign students pending a hearing scheduled for Thursday, the same day as the university’s graduation ceremony for which thousands of students and their families had gathered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

The White House has also stripped Harvard, as well as other US universities widely considered among the world’s most elite, of federal funding for research.

“The president is more interested in giving that taxpayer money to trade schools and programs and state schools where they are promoting American values, but most importantly, educating the next generation based on skills that we need in our economy and our society,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Fox News.

Some Harvard students were worried that the Trump administration’s policies would make US universities less attractive to international students.

“I don’t know if I’d pursue a PhD here. Six years is a long time,” said Jack, a history of medicine student from Britain who is graduating this week and gave only a first name.

Harvard has filed extensive legal challenges against Trump’s measures.​
 
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