[🇧🇩] Energy Security of Bangladesh

[🇧🇩] Energy Security of Bangladesh
634
22K
More threads by Saif

G Bangladesh Defense

Time to run renewable energy system

THE Iran–America–Israel conflict has already begun to create ripple effects far beyond the battlefield and Bangladesh is feeling the pressure. The global energy market has turned volatile, and as a result, the government is facing a difficult situation. Fuel prices have been increased — petrol, diesel, octane and LPG — triggering a chain reaction across the economy. Transport fares have gone up, commodity prices have risen, and the burden has ultimately fallen on ordinary people. What we are witnessing is not just a temporary crisis, but a structural vulnerability that has been building for years.

The government’s recent announcement to generate 10,000 MW of solar power is therefore encouraging, but it must be seen in the context of a much deeper problem. Bangladesh’s increasing dependence on imported fossil fuels has left the economy exposed to global shocks. Petroleum, LNG and LPG have become central to our energy system, even as domestic gas reserves continue to decline.

This dependence requires a large outflow of foreign currency, placing constant pressure on reserves. Over the past decade, energy consumption patterns have shifted significantly, moving away from domestic gas towards imported fuels. While domestic gas production once reached 2,750 million cubic feet per day in 2017, it has since declined sharply, even as demand in industries and urban areas continues to rise. By 2024–25, LNG demand has reached 7.41 million tons, a 19 per cent increase from the previous year, while petroleum demand has remained around 7 million tons annually. With pipeline gas connections suspended, LPG now serves 98 per cent of household cooking needs.Sports news updates

Recent geopolitical disruptions have further exposed the fragility of this system. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted oil shipments from the Persian Gulf, affecting supply chains. As a result, more than half of Bangladesh’s power plants have reportedly remained idle due to fuel shortages. The consequences are already visible: the export-oriented garment sector has seen production capacity fall by up to 40 per cent because of irregular gas and electricity supply. What was once presented as a strategy for securing cheap and abundant fuel imports has instead become a long-term financial burden. Since 2018, LNG imports have cost the country around $18 billion, and projections suggest that by 2030, Bangladesh may need to spend at least $8.5 billion annually to meet demand.Environmental news updates

This growing reliance on LNG is increasingly risky. Bangladesh has begun purchasing LNG from the volatile spot market, competing directly with wealthier countries in Europe and East Asia. At the same time, long-term agreements such as the 15-year deal signed in January 2026 with the United States for up to 5 million tons annually may ensure supply stability but also deepen dependence on fossil fuels. Meanwhile, the cost of electricity generation remains high. Furnace oil, which still contributes over 10 per cent of power generation, costs around Tk 18.41 per unit, compared to Tk 14.86 for LNG and just Tk 9.09 for solar power. Despite this, the transport sector continues to rely almost entirely on imported petroleum, consuming over 63 per cent of fuel, while agriculture remains dependent on diesel-powered irrigation.

The economic implications are significant. During the Boro season, over 1.22 million diesel-powered irrigation pumps consume large volumes of imported fuel, requiring substantial subsidies. The industrial sector, heavily reliant on gas and electricity, is also suffering from supply shortages, with reduced production threatening export targets and employment. Taken together, these pressures highlight a fundamental issue: Bangladesh’s energy model is no longer sustainable.

This moment, however, also presents an opportunity. Moving away from import-dependent fossil fuels towards renewable energy is no longer optional but necessary. Regional examples offer useful lessons. In Pakistan, for instance, rising electricity costs during its recent economic crisis pushed both households and businesses towards solar power. By removing import duties and taxes on solar equipment, the government enabled rapid expansion of rooftop solar installations. From importing less than 1,000 MW of solar panels in 2018, Pakistan reached 51,000 MW by early 2026, with decentralised solar capacity significantly reducing its oil and gas import bill.Energy & Utilities

Bangladesh can pursue a similar path. With 42.6 million households consuming more than half of the national electricity supply, there is substantial potential for rooftop solar expansion. Around 20 million households could install at least 1 kW systems, potentially adding up to 16,000 MW of capacity and generating 26,000 million units of electricity annually. This would significantly reduce reliance on expensive furnace oil and save large amounts of foreign exchange. Government buildings, educational institutions, and water bodies also offer untapped potential for solar power generation, including floating solar systems that address land constraints.

In agriculture, replacing diesel-powered irrigation pumps with solar alternatives could reduce import costs and subsidy burdens. However, current progress remains slow, with only a few hundred solar pumps installed each year. A coordinated effort involving public agencies is needed to scale up installation to at least 10,000 units annually. Similarly, policy support in the form of low-interest financing, tax exemptions, and targeted subsidies could accelerate adoption in both residential and industrial sectors.

The transport sector also requires urgent attention. Introducing electric buses in major cities and reducing import duties on electric vehicles could help decrease petroleum dependence. At the same time, broader behavioural shifts such as encouraging energy efficiency, reducing unnecessary travel and promoting rooftop solar can complement structural reforms.

To make this transition effective, policy alignment is essential. Import duties and VAT on renewable energy equipment should be withdrawn and financial incentives should be introduced to encourage widespread adoption. Allocating a larger share of the national energy budget to renewables would signal a clear shift in priorities. Without such measures, vested interests in fossil fuel imports and conventional energy infrastructure may continue to slow progress.Solar Power

Bangladesh now stands at a crossroads. Continuing along the current path will deepen economic vulnerability and environmental risks. A decisive shift towards renewable energy, on the other hand, offers a way to strengthen energy security, reduce financial strain and build resilience against global shocks. The choice is no longer about preference, it is about necessity.​
 

Bangladesh’s energy crisis to persist without renewable transition: CPD

Published :

Apr 27, 2026 15:54
Updated :
Apr 27, 2026 20:26

1777333740862.webp


Bangladesh’s ongoing energy crisis may ease temporarily, but it cannot be fully resolved without a decisive shift to renewable energy, said the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) on Monday.

“We must think beyond fossil fuels,” CPD Research Director Dr Khondaker Moazzem said at the 4th Bangladesh-China Renewable Energy Forum organised by CPD under the theme “Transforming Crisis into Opportunities: Renewable Energy Development under the New Government”, at a hotel in Dhaka, UNB reports.

“The crisis that fossil-fuel dependency has created across the world is not something that will be resolved overnight. Bangladesh needs to seriously consider alternatives in its energy sector,” he said.

The veteran economist underscored China's pioneering role in the global renewable energy revolution and called for maximising bilateral cooperation in the sector.

“China is at the forefront of renewable energy through its innovations. Chinese investment in Bangladesh's renewable energy sector is already substantial. This forum will deliberate on how to further enrich that investment going forward,” he said.

CPD's presentation introduced a conceptual framework: ‘3F-3R’: ‘Fallen Fossil Fuel, Rising Resilient Renewables’, to describe the structural shift Bangladesh must make.

The think tank warned that even if the ongoing Middle East conflict subsided and the Strait of Hormuz reopened immediately, Bangladesh would continue bearing the economic burden of energy-supply disruptions for years to come.

Using econometric modelling, CPD projected that geopolitical oil shocks would inflict limited but persistent macroeconomic damage through multiple channels: GDP losses in the range of 0.21 to 0.53 percent, inflationary pressure between 0.6 and 13.6 percent, and taka depreciation of 0.56 to 4.5 percent in the medium to long term.

The BNP government has announced a target of generating 10,000 megawatts of electricity from renewable sources by 2030, and CPD estimated the associated investment requirement at approximately USD 9.36 billion, spanning utility-scale solar, rooftop and distributed solar, wind, and biomass and biogas installations.

The 4th Forum, unlike its three predecessors, drilled down specifically on Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) as the central contractual instrument through which investment either flows into or is repelled from Bangladesh's energy sector.

CPD's research found that Bangladesh's PPAs have progressively deteriorated in terms of investor protection.

The country's first renewable energy PPA, drafted with external legal expertise, contained strong sovereign guarantees, well-structured international arbitration clauses, and balanced risk coverage. Subsequent revisions have steadily tilted the framework in the government's favour, the think tank said.

Compounding the problem, the interim government's decision to discontinue Implementation Agreements, which had previously provided sovereign backing for investor commitments, removed a critical layer of payment security precisely when renewable investment was beginning to scale. No credible substitute mechanism has since been introduced, it observed.

CPD flagged that Chinese investors account for over 50 percent of total foreign direct investment in Bangladesh's renewable energy sector, making the health of PPA arrangements disproportionately consequential for Sino-Bangladeshi energy cooperation.

The forum presentation catalogued a series of persistent contractual and institutional failures that have deterred investment across four successive forums since 2023.

On the contractual side, normal payment cycles of two to three months routinely stretch to five to eight months in practice.

Payments are nominally denominated in local currency with US dollar equivalence, yet the PPA structure provides no compensation for exchange rate depreciation during the payment gap, a growing liability as the taka weakens.

In at least one documented case, investors who had signed both a PPA and an Implementation Agreement and completed construction subsequently faced government attempts to revise the agreed tariff, with no contractual remedy available to them.

On the institutional side, approvals required from multiple agencies, including BPDB, PGCB, REB, SREDA, and local authorities, proceed sequentially rather than in parallel, with no coordinated timeline or accountability mechanism for delays, said CPD.

Land deemed officially cleared at the central level has, in multiple cases, faced challenges from local actors, with different ministries operating in silos and unaware of approvals issued by others, it added.

The cancellation of 31 solar project Letters of Intent by the interim government, representing approximately 5.68 gigawatts and USD 6 billion in prospective investment, with USD 300 million already committed through banking channels and 15 companies having purchased land, was cited as a particularly damaging signal to the investment community.

CPD benchmarked Bangladesh's PPA template against those of India, Pakistan, Kenya, Tanzania, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Saudi Arabia.

The analysis revealed that Bangladesh's BPDB tender document, unlike frameworks in Pakistan, the Philippines, and Saudi Arabia, lacks payment security instruments, Implementation Agreement-equivalents, and lender step-in rights, provisions considered standard in bankable renewable energy contracts internationally.

The think tank's diagnostic assessment found that enforcement was the single weakest dimension of Bangladesh's PPA architecture, followed by an imbalanced risk allocation that structurally disadvantages the investor. “In a fair ecosystem, these two dimensions cannot be weak simultaneously.”

Reform Roadmap: Immediate and Medium-Term

In the immediate term, the think tank called for the introduction of a revolving Letter of Credit covering three to six months of payments, backed by a sovereign guarantee or central bank support, describing it as the single most important bankability improvement available within the existing PPA structure.

CPD also recommended that when BPDB extends a Commercial Operations Date deadline, the corresponding Ready for Commercial Operations Date must be extended in parallel, a structural inconsistency that currently exposes developers to liquidated damages for delays of the government's own making.

Over the medium term, CPD urged the establishment of an Inter-Agency Task Force with binding standard operating procedures and time-stamped approval responsibilities; the development of a dedicated Renewable Energy Procurement Guideline covering the post-award phase; the incorporation of lender step-in rights and a Dispute Adjudication Board into the standard BPDB template; and the restoration of a credible sovereign commitment mechanism functionally equivalent to the discontinued Implementation Agreement.

CPD also called on the government to declare the power and energy sector a national priority sector, expand company courts with specialised commercial law expertise, and introduce mandatory tax and duty exemptions on renewable energy equipment, particularly inverters and batteries, on which import levies currently stand at around 61.8 per cent.

On the financing side, the think tank urged Bangladesh Bank to establish a dedicated low-cost fund for rooftop solar and advocated for the use of land from cancelled fossil-fuel power plants and upcoming stranded assets to host renewable energy installations.

It also highlighted the potential of Chinese technology, including solar panels, inverters, and lithium iron phosphate batteries and the possibility of establishing local battery assembly facilities in partnership with Chinese companies to reduce both cost and import dependence.

The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, taking effect in 2027, was cited as an additional structural incentive for urgency: Bangladesh's export-oriented garment and textile sector would be required to demonstrate green energy sourcing to avoid carbon levies and maintain market access in Europe.

CPD noted that the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority is set to open its first overseas office in China within approximately six months, a step expected to directly facilitate Chinese investment inquiries in Bangladesh's renewable energy sector.

Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood attended the event as the chief guest.

The forum was also attended by Chinese investors, development finance institutions, government officials, and energy sector stakeholders.​
 

Before scaling up renewables, we must first make the grid flexible

27 April 2026, 13:00 PM
Shahriar Ahmed Chowdhury

1777336350122.webp

FILE VISUAL: Shaikh Sultana Jahan Badhon

Bangladesh is on the brink of a major transformation in its power sector. The country has ambitious plans to increase its renewable energy capacity, particularly solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy, in line with global climate commitments and its own national development goals. Yet, the promise of renewable energy comes with the challenge of variability. Because, unlike traditional thermal power, solar and wind energy cannot be dispatched on demand. Their output depends on the sun shining and the wind blowing, which varies by the hour, day, and season. Without a flexible and resilient grid, large-scale adoption of these variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies can create instability, inefficiency, and even risk of grid failure.

A flexible grid, capable of accommodating fluctuations in supply while maintaining a stable power flow, is the backbone of any renewable-driven energy system. A modern grid does more than simply transmit electricity from a power plant to a consumer—it balances supply and demand, adjusts to sudden changes in generation, and ensures that voltage and frequency remain within safe operating limits. In Bangladesh, several factors can limit this flexibility.

For example, many of the country’s substations are operating near maximum capacity. Adding more renewable energy without upgrading these nodes could overload the grid. Thermal power plants, particularly those fuelled by natural gas and imported fuels, often face shortages or technical failures, limiting their ability to provide backup power when renewable output drops. Thermal plants also have minimum operating levels and technical constraints that prevent them from adjusting output rapidly enough to match renewable variability. Additionally, solar and wind plants clustered in certain regions can exacerbate local grid stress if not balanced by transmission or storage solutions.

Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of Bangladesh’s electricity system must include supply and demand patterns, transmission and distribution constraints, storage potential, and market mechanisms. Only then can policymakers determine how much VRE can be integrated safely and what upgrades are required to support a renewable-dominant grid. Preliminary simulations of Bangladesh’s power system are encouraging. Studies indicate that, under idealised conditions, the grid can accommodate higher shares of solar and wind without immediate investments in storage or major transmission upgrades. The least-cost scenarios typically involve maximising renewable penetration, suggesting that technically, Bangladesh has room to scale up VRE.

However, these simulations come with important caveats. They assume that thermal plants can reliably operate on standby, ready to ramp up when renewable generation falls. In reality, fuel shortages, made worse by international market volatility following the Ukraine and Gulf wars, have disrupted predictable operation of gas and liquid fuel plants. High global LNG prices and limited domestic gas reserves mean that even if the installed thermal capacity is sufficient, its operational reliability may not match the assumptions of the models. Further, many coal plants and older gas plants have technical constraints that limit ramping speed or minimum operating load. This is particularly critical in areas like Chattogram, Feni, Sirajganj, Jamalpur, and Rangpur where rapid growth in VRE is expected. Without flexible backup, periods of low solar or wind generation could lead to instability, forcing curtailment of renewables or risking load shedding. To navigate these challenges, Bangladesh can begin with several practical, short-term measures.

First, time-of-use electricity pricing can incentivise consumers to shift energy-intensive activities to periods of high renewable output, smoothing demand and reducing grid stress. Second, implementing solar and wind generation forecasting can help thermal plants anticipate dips in renewable output and adjust their operations accordingly. Third, introducing Free Governor Mode Operation (FGMO) in power plants could allow automatic adjustment of generator output in response to grid frequency changes, improving frequency stability and reducing the risk of blackouts.

However, as renewable penetration grows, further interventions will be necessary. First, coal and gas plants may need modifications to reduce minimum operating levels and increase ramping speed, allowing them to complement variable renewables more effectively. Second, battery or other grid storage systems can provide ramping flexibility in regions with limited gas plant availability. Third, smart appliances and building energy management systems can prioritise electricity consumption when supply is limited, contributing to grid stability.

Looking ahead, Bangladesh must adopt structural and policy solutions to create a truly flexible and renewable-friendly grid. For instance, developing local natural gas reserves can reduce dependency on imports and stabilise thermal generation availability. Second, investments in grid-scale storage are essential to absorb excess renewable generation so that it can be released during low-output periods. Electric Vehicles (EV) can act as distributed storage, charging during periods of surplus solar generation and feeding electricity back to the grid when needed. Connecting Bangladesh’s grid with neighbouring countries can provide additional flexibility, allowing power imports or exports to balance supply-demand fluctuations. Modernising the grid with digital controls, automated distribution, and spot-market electricity pricing ensures efficient operation, reduces losses, and improves reliability. Additionally, promoting devices that align with renewable generation patterns can reduce overall demand pressure on the system.

For these solutions to succeed, grid flexibility must become a central consideration in national energy planning. Thermal power plants must be designed and contracted with flexibility in mind, ensuring they can operate at lower loads without financial penalties. Renewable capacity expansion plans should consider geographical diversity to mitigate local variability. Substation upgrades, transmission expansion, and storage deployment must be integrated into long-term planning. Finally, policymakers must create market incentives and regulatory frameworks that encourage innovation, demand response, and private investment in grid-enhancing technologies.

Bangladesh has the opportunity to transition towards a cleaner, more sustainable energy system driven by solar and wind. But without a flexible grid, these ambitions risk inefficiency, curtailment, or worse, grid failure. By combining short-term operational improvements, medium-term retrofits and storage deployment, and long-term structural and policy interventions, Bangladesh can build a resilient, efficient, and renewable-friendly grid. This will not only enable the integration of variable renewables but also reduce dependence on fossil fuel imports, enhance energy security, and position Bangladesh as a leader in sustainable energy transition in South Asia.

Shahriar Ahmed Chowdhury is founding director at Centre for Energy Research at United International University.​
 

Latest Posts

Back