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[🇮🇳] Indian Navy Watch

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[H2]What does the Indian Navy do in the Red Sea?[/H2]
India is trying to justify its growing maritime presence and activity in the Red Sea region by fighting piracy. Still, by showcasing the latest successful hunt for Somali pirates, it wants to send an international signal that it is a force to be reckoned with in light of China's rise.

The U.S. military presence in and around the Indian Ocean took shape during World War II, "strengthened throughout the Cold War, and its waters became an important component of Washington's strategy" in that region.

India and the United States forged the strongest "pan-Indian Ocean partnership." According to Pentagon data, "military cooperation between the two parties has risen to its highest level in 2022" (Carnegie Institution study, June 15, 2023).

Since becoming prime minister of India in 2014, Narendra Modi has embarked on implementing his vision of the primacy of "Hindu nationalism" at home, matching the policy of his nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and making strategic shifts in the country's historic alliances that sought neutrality and balance its relations between Moscow and Washington. Modi was the first prime minister in India's history to visit Israel in 2017.

In the same vein, Modi sided with the Zionist position by supporting Benjamin Netanyahu following the October 7, 2023, Operation Al-Aqsa Flood of Palestinian Resistance. In a statement, he said: "I am deeply shocked by the terrorist attacks in Israel. We pray and pray for the innocent victims and their families. We stand in solidarity with Israel at this difficult hour," he said, instructing his country's permanent representative to the United Nations to abstain in favor of a draft ceasefire resolution on October 27, 2023.

The gradual correspondence of India's policies during the Modi presidency with the rhythm of American policies is not exaggerated or crazy. New Delhi has won Washington's support in a number of international files, despite the limited space here to address India's role in the BRICS axis and its strong opposition to Algeria's accession to the nascent international alliance.

Despite "India's non-participation in the American Guardian of Prosperity alliance in the Red Sea," New Delhi "began to strengthen its presence in the area stretching from the northern and central Arabian Sea to the Gulf of Aden, sending ten warships instead of the two normally stationed in the area" (The Wall Street Journal, February 17, 2024).

The newspaper added: "India sought through this position to strengthen its cooperation with the United States of America to confront Yemeni military operations in the Red Sea, which means that its view of the conflict coincides with the perspective of the United States, which has taken the position that this is done at Iranian instigation."

The US and Indian navies are conducting "joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and simultaneous engagement in military exercises and educational programs" (Carnegie Institution study, June 15, 2023).

Washington's active Asian policy since the beginning of former President Barack Obama's term has focused its regional and international efforts and alliances on a "possible military" confrontation with China, and has become the compass of its orientations with other powers, including India and its economic power and consumer market for American products.

Some influential research centers and studies in US political decision-making constantly warn of the dangers of armed conflict with China in light of international strategic shifts in the first place, and some of them highlight the erosion of the strategic structure after the end of the Cold War, and the repercussions of Washington's defeats in its wars since the advent of the new millennium.

Some strongly pointed to phenomena of "the diminishing cohesion of the U.S. government (since then), the disintegration of the fabric of society, and the spread of threats" internal and global, all of which "mark the end of the era of the industrial superpowers, and their entry into the medieval era," and continued: "For many years, we have seen signs of the erosion of the era of prosperity and the relaxation of domestic strength. The conclusions of almost all social sciences have pointed to signs of decline and regression" (RAND Foundation study, March 19, 2024).

Military experts agree that among India's goals in its growing cooperation with the United States is its historic conflict with China, along with its ambition to become an international economic magnate. This is exemplified by U.S. military procurement deals worth $3 billion for 31 Predator drones, half of which are for the Navy.

India's Foreign Minister Subramaniam Jaishinkar recently stressed that his country's "growing interests and reputation call for its assistance in difficult situations" and was met by the Supreme Commander of the Indian Eastern Navy, Biswaajit Dasgupta, saying, "There is sufficient coordination with the United States and other like-minded countries on the maritime front."

India currently has "two warships in the Gulf of Aden, 12 warships in the northern and western Arabian Sea," two aircraft carriers, the operation of radar stations and observation centers in the waters of the Indian Ocean to monitor various maritime movements, and reconnaissance aircraft in the Arabian Sea region.

Over the past ten years, the Indian Navy has produced more than 12 warships armed with missiles and torpedoes, all of which are produced locally for its navy, bringing the total number of warships in India's fleet to 140.

Historical conflicts over the shared border between China and India produced China's alliance with Pakistan as part of that dispute, while New Delhi turned to Moscow and then to Washington. China's global expansion through the "Belt and Road" strategy necessitated strengthening its relations with Pakistan, establishing a military base in Djibouti near the Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea, modernizing the Pakistani port of Gwadar and Hambantuna in Sri Lanka, and another in Myanmar, as well as developing an artificial island in the Maldives, and expanding a naval base in Cambodia, which means encircling India in the Bay of Bengal.

At the other end, India is actively intensifying its economic presence in the waters and states of the Persian Gulf, including Oman, which granted it berthing rights in its ports and bilateral consultations between them to establish an underwater natural gas pipeline. India also has close ties with both Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The three countries participated in naval exercises in 2021.

Some economists draw attention to the importance of the Indian human factor in the Arab Gulf countries as one of the elements of Indian policy, as the size of the Indian element in the UAE is estimated at about 38% of the total population, including "expatriates". Thus, they constitute the largest ethnic group in the UAE, with 3 times that of Egyptians in second place, about 10 percent.

India's recent increase in oil and its derivatives threatens to jeopardize energy supplies, as it ranked third in the world with about 205 million tons of oil derivatives consumed in 2022. India is also a major importer of Russian crude oil after Washington sanctioned Moscow's oil exports, amounting to about 4 million barrels of crude oil, and New Delhi aspires to increase the size of its contribution to the export of oil products, especially to Europe, through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.

According to the World Bank Fund, India's economy is classified as a "developing middle-income market economy," a system based on protectionist economic policies supported by successive governments since independence. It is the sixth largest consumer market globally. India's workforce was around 500 million in 2019.

The services sector accounts for half of GDP. The public debt rate rose to 86% of GDP for the same year, and India is one of the first countries in the world in terms of the number of super-rich billionaires. It suffers from severe income inequality and shrinking job opportunities except those needed by Western markets, especially Americans, in the pharmaceutical industry due to the low cost of production and the abundance of profits.

In recent decades, India has been characterized by a boom in its technical labor in the field of information technology due to low wages, reaching about 3.7 million out of a total of 500 million in the market. However, competition with new technologies to replace labor, coupled with a significant slowdown in hiring new workers, threatens the country. World Bank data shows about 69% of jobs are threatened (BBC report, May 25, 2017).

Despite the totality of Narendra Modi's economic steps, floundering applications, and a widening gap in labor availability, these policies have failed to provide employment opportunities for graduate staff and skills that have moved to work in Western markets, widening the gap again, and rural areas are deprived of doctors and specialists because of these policies.

India is trying to justify its increased maritime presence and activity in the Red Sea region by fighting piracy, especially after the return of piracy activity from Somalia. Still, by reviewing the latest successful hunt for Somali pirates, it wants to send a regional and international signal that it is a growing power that is supposed to be counted in light of China's economic and military rise.

To date, its ships have not been targeted by Ansar Allah in Yemen. Still, suppose it turns out that they are active in support of Israel. In that case, they will also become vulnerable, like the US Navy and all those who support the Israeli occupation army in the war to exterminate the Palestinian people in Gaza.
 

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