[🇧🇩] Indo-Bangla Relation: India's Regional Ambition, Geopolitical Reality, and Strategic Options For Bangladesh

[Saif]

I believe Modi is killing two birds with one stone here.

1. He is refusing visa for Bangladeshis (supposedly teaching them a lesson).
2. As a result Kolkata economy is ruined, which reduces the popularity of Didi in West Bengal, whom he dislikes.

But little do these Hindutva folks know - that this is going to blow up in their face. BJP is losing its last chance for popularity in West Bengal. There is no political future left for BJP in WB, when the center's actions affect the Ruji-Roti of people in West Bengal. Mamla khatam.

If necessary we need to help Mamata so that BJP cannot establish itself in West Bengal. Though Mamata has adopted a hardline against Bangladesh in water sharing issue, she is ten times better than BJP and RSS for Bangladesh. Help Mamata to kick BJP and RSS out of West Bengal forever.

 

[Bilal9]

Bilateral relations between Bangladesh & India have hit a seriously low level in the last 6 months, intensified in no small measure by India’s decision to provide refuge to Bangladesh’s ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Ismail Ali considers the fractious atmosphere, especially in mainstream and social media, and asks whether it is in the interest of either country to sustain hostile relations?

In the 4th century BC, the Indian philosopher Chanakya famously said:

Every neighbouring state is an enemy, and the enemy’s enemy is a friend.

While it is unclear whether India views Bangladesh as an enemy state, anti-India sentiment is currently widespread in Bangladesh. Despite the many long-standing unresolved bilateral issues between the two countries, India’s interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs has drawn sharp criticism.

Many Bangladeshis believe that India played a pivotal role in bringing former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to power in 2007 and has supported her authoritarian rule ever since. Observers in Dhaka accuse New Delhi of using its influence on the international stage to shield her brutal regime from scrutiny over its appalling human rights record, including the imprisonment, torture and execution of opposition supporters — enabling Hasina to crush Bangladesh’s democracy. Until her final hour — when she fled to India on 5 August 2024 — New Delhi reportedly pressured Washington to soften its stance on her oppressive rule.

Former Indian President Pranab Mukherjee (in The Coalition Years, 1996-2012, 2017) and former Indian High Commissioner in Bangladesh Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty (in Transformation: Emergence of Bangladesh and Evolution of India-Bangladesh Ties, 2024) — two influential Indian figures with deep involvement in Bangladesh’s affairs — openly acknowledge New Delhi’s longstanding authority in shaping Bangladesh’s political landscape.

Amid these developments, a self-respecting Bangladeshi will consider boycotting India. On 7 August, the Financial Times ran the following headline: ‘India’s Bangladesh bet backfires spectacularly after Sheikh Hasina is ousted.’ Shafqat Munir, Senior Fellow at the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies, remarked, ‘There is a lot of angst in New Delhi right now about what shape the incoming Bangladesh’s government will take.’

*

However, maintaining a close relationship founded on mutual respect is crucial for the long-term peace, prosperity and economic development of both India and Bangladesh. The two countries are tied by deep-rooted commonalities — civilisational and cultural ties, shared languages, economic connections, and a rich heritage in music, literature and the arts. With 4,000-kilometres of shared borders, and confronted with significant challenges including climate change, water management and terrorism, Chief Adviser of the Interim Government Muhammad Yunus emphasises the importance of fostering a strong tie with India, telling the FT ‘We are neighbours and we need each other.’

India is a rising power of 1.4 billion people and a US$3.5 trillion economy. Martin Wolf, Chief Economic Commentator of the FT, argues that by the middle of this century, it would be surprising if India — then with a projected population of 1.7–1.8 billion people — does not emerge as a superpower. Thus, the West has increasingly aligned their interests with India. The European Union and the United Kingdom now prioritises India as atop trade partner, and many Western corporations view India as a major potential market. Moreover, amid rising geo-political tensions in South Asia, the United States engages with India as a strategic partner to counter China’s influence in the region.

*

Changing global power dynamics and India’s economic future offers Bangladesh a unique opportunity to benefit from regional prosperity — if the relationship is managed strategically. In Europe, for instance, it was not only France and Germany that became wealthy; the entire continent collectively prospered. In contrast, most African countries have remained poor, demonstrating the opposite trend. Supporting this perspective — Tim Marshall in Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps that Tell You Everything You Need to Know About Global Politics (2015), Paul Colliers in The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can be Done About It (2008), and Daron Açemoglu and James A. Robinson in Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty (2013) — argue that proximity to a thriving nation promote economic growth. Likewise, a successful Bangladesh is more likely to be a strong ally of India than a failing one, as Vinod Khosla argues, insisting that India should support Bangladesh’s Interim Government.

The interdependence between Bangladesh and India is evident variously. Bangladesh urgently requires a more cooperative attitude from India to address the severe impact of climate change — most notably from rising sea levels — which threaten its coastal regions. Bangladesh can also benefit from India’s support in areas like electricity and critical infrastructure projects. Easing tariffs and removing barriers to Bangladeshi exports would significantly contribute to the latter’s economic growth.

India, in turn, relies on Bangladesh for connecting and stabilising its Seven Sisters states in the north-east, which have long struggled with isolation and insurgencies. The access to transformation routes through Bangladesh offers India an efficient and cost-effective means to move goods and materials to these regions, underscoring Bangladesh’s crucial role in internal cohesion and regional stability.

But the two nations cannot be on the same boat without resolving key bilateral issues. Md Shariful Islam identifies three key obstacles to sustainable relations between the two nations: water-sharing, border killings, and trade imbalances. During Sheikh Hasina’s second tenure as Prime Minister (2009–2024), progress has been made in areas such as visa simplification and the resolution of land and maritime boundary discord. However, longstanding disagreement over water-sharing remains unresolved. Bangladesh shares 50 rivers with India, including the vital Ganges and Brahmaputra. Cooperation on water-sharing and joint river management is important for agriculture, flood control and addressing climate change. Additionally, India’s Border Security Force’s so-called ‘Shoot-to-kill’ policy at the Indo-Bangladesh border is a serious concern, as pointed out by Human Rights Watch.

India’s approach to Bangladesh reflects an immature foreign policy unable to withstand regime changes. By aligning closely with one person (Sheikh Hasina) rather than fostering a broader relationship with the people of the country and by encouraging anti-Bangladesh propaganda, India exposes a shortsightedness that undermines its regional strategy, particularly the countering of China’s growing influence. A recent report by the International Crisis Group underscores this concern, urging India to ‘repair its fragile relations with Bangladesh’.

Dhaka and New Delhi must adopt forward-looking approaches rather than engaging in reactionary politics. Both nations should recognise that it is not only their histories that are intertwined, but more importantly, their futures. Collective efforts grounded in shared interests will foster economic prosperity and ensure peaceful coexistence, thereby proving Chanakya’s narrative as out-of-date.

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent the views of the ‘South Asia @ LSE’ blog, the LSE South Asia Centre or the London School of Economics and Political Science. Please click here for our Comments Policy.

This blogpost may not be reposted by anyone without prior written consent of LSE South Asia Centre; please e-mail southasia@lse.ac.uk for permission.

Banner image © Austin Curtis, ‘Ferrymen, Buriganga River’, 2024, Unsplash.

 

[Saif]

কলকাতায় বাংলাদেশি নেই, না খেয়ে মরার দশা অনেকের (Many businesses in Kolkata have just winded-up due to the absence of Bangladeshi tourists. It is quite evident that India's healthcare sector, transportation, clothing industry and hotel business are heavily dependent on Bangladesh.)

 

[Krishna with Flute]

Dhaka committed to boosting Indian Ocean partnership: foreign adviser

The foreign adviser said the Indian Ocean region is a crucial strategic area that links the Asia-Pacific and African regions, with profound economic, political and security significance

www.thedailystar.net

Dhaka committed to boosting Indian Ocean partnership: foreign adviser

View attachment 14473
Md Touhid Hossain. File photo

Bangladesh has reiterated its commitment to embracing the tremendous opportunities that the Indian Ocean region offers by strengthening partnerships.

"We are committed to strengthening our partnerships across the Indian Ocean, addressing emerging challenges, and embracing the tremendous opportunities this region offers," said Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain today.

The multiple challenges and other geo-economic and geo-strategic factors require increased cooperation among the States, he said.

Hossain made the remarks while speaking at the plenary session titled "Strengthening Maritime Supply Chains: Overcoming Disruptions and Enhancing Resilience" as part of the 8th Indian Ocean Conference (IOC)-2025 in Muscat, Oman.

Sheikh Humaid Al Maani, Head of the Diplomatic Academy, MoFA, Oman chaired the session.

The foreign adviser said the Indian Ocean region is a crucial strategic area that links the Asia-Pacific and African regions, with profound economic, political and security significance.

The conference provided a platform for participants to engage in "constructive discussions, share ideas, exchange knowledge, identify actionable solutions, and build meaningful partnerships and cooperation" in the region.

"We look forward to working together to ensure a brighter, more prosperous future for all nations of the Indian Ocean and beyond," Adviser Touhid said.

As a littoral state, he said, Bangladesh has long been a centre of maritime activities and it actively participates in various regional platforms, including the Indian Ocean Rim Association and the International Seabed Authority.

The 8th Indian Ocean Conference is being held under the theme "Voyage of New Horizons of Maritime Partnership."

He said Bangladesh places strong importance on maritime cooperation for facilitating the efficient movement of goods, services and people and for advancing food security, energy security, water cooperation, disaster risk reduction and providing fair access to global public goods. Bangladesh advocates for "shared prosperity" through "shared responsibility".

Maritime transport is the main artery of global trade and maritime supply chains remain the backbone of the global economy, he added.

He said eighty percent of global trade by volume, and over seventy percent by value, is transported by sea and the Indian Ocean, the world's third-largest body of water, plays a crucial role in this global trade.

Approximately 80 percent of the world's seaborne oil trade transits through the strategic choke points of the Indian Ocean, making it a vital link between the East and the West.

"Countries depend on the Indian Ocean for the movement of goods through maritime trade routes, safeguarding their economic and energy interests. However, the sector is facing multifaceted challenges that endanger the efficiency, reliability, resilience and sustainability of maritime supply chains," he said.

Maritime supply chain is vulnerable to many challenges like port congestion, capacity limitations, regulatory, operational and administrative issues, cyberattacks, piracy, and geopolitical tensions, which can disrupt the efficiency of maritime supply chains.

"We must also remember that the oceans are not only a driving force for global economic growth but also a vital source of food security," Hossain said.

The oceans are facing growing pressures from population growth, global competition for resources, rising food demand, water scarcity, maritime security threats, climate change, biodiversity loss and marine pollution.

"We need to take appropriate actions to tackle the maritime security threats of piracy, armed robbery, human trafficking, illegal arms trade, and illegal and unregulated fishing, among others. We need to address regulatory and administrative issues," said the foreign adviser.

The global economy, food security, and energy supplies are at increasing risk due to vulnerabilities at key maritime routes, he noted.

"We must take measures to address vulnerabilities and enhance resilience," he said

Strengthening maritime supply chains involves a holistic approach combining technology, infrastructure improvements, strategic planning, risk management strategies and cross-border collaboration.

"We need to facilitate maritime connectivity, reduce the trade barriers," he said, adding that they also need to consider liberalisation of the visa regime, particularly easing visas and other administrative processes for the seafarers, ensuring facilities for them, as their roles are crucial in maintaining the maritime supply chain.

He said the Indian Ocean has historically been a region of great collaboration.

"The benefits of multilateral cooperation in maritime issues are likely to increase over time," Touhid said, adding that to ensure a resilient and improved shared future, it is essential for the countries in the Indian Ocean region to explore opportunities for mutual collaboration across all possible areas.

Each coastal nation should ensure that growth and prosperity in the Indian Ocean region, as well as the surrounding seas and bays, are built on mutual trust, respect.

All nations should understand the idea of equal interests, as all littoral states collaborate to develop together, he added.

"We also must prioritise conservation and the sustainable use of ocean and coastal resources to ensure that the use of these resources does not contribute to the decline in the health of oceanic and coastal environments," the foreign adviser said.​

He has not mentioned the name of any nation. No meaningful IOR partnership is possible without India being pivot to that partnership. However, because of domestic reasons, he seems to have refrained from taking the name of India.

 

[Krishna with Flute]

But the two nations cannot be on the same boat without resolving key bilateral issues. Md Shariful Islam identifies three key obstacles to sustainable relations between the two nations: water-sharing, border killings, and trade imbalances.

1) Water Sharing is a genuine concern. 2)Border killing is inevitable looking at smuggling and transborder crime. If BD cooperates and checks the animal smuggling and other transborder crime, it can be minimized.
3)Trade imbalance is inevitable. unless BD has something to offer to India which India requires, how can that be reduced. India is facing same issue with China. China needs lees from India but India need lot more from China. As a result, trade imbalance is growing. The only solution to problem is India substituting the Chinese goods which is imported. Same is true with BD. How can trade balance be checked unless BD has something to offer to India which India needs and not produced in India. In best case scenario, it can be some minerals. If BD has minerals, trade deficit can be narrowed. There doesn't seem to be any other possibility.

 

[Bilal9]

Bilateral relations between Bangladesh & India have hit a seriously low level in the last 6 months, intensified in no small measure by India’s decision to provide refuge to Bangladesh’s ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Ismail Ali considers the fractious atmosphere, especially in mainstream and social media, and asks whether it is in the interest of either country to sustain hostile relations?

In the 4th century BC, the Indian philosopher Chanakya famously said:

Every neighbouring state is an enemy, and the enemy’s enemy is a friend.

While it is unclear whether India views Bangladesh as an enemy state, anti-India sentiment is currently widespread in Bangladesh. Despite the many long-standing unresolved bilateral issues between the two countries, India’s interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs has drawn sharp criticism.

Many Bangladeshis believe that India played a pivotal role in bringing former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to power in 2007 and has supported her authoritarian rule ever since. Observers in Dhaka accuse New Delhi of using its influence on the international stage to shield her brutal regime from scrutiny over its appalling human rights record, including the imprisonment, torture and execution of opposition supporters — enabling Hasina to crush Bangladesh’s democracy. Until her final hour — when she fled to India on 5 August 2024 — New Delhi reportedly pressured Washington to soften its stance on her oppressive rule.

Former Indian President Pranab Mukherjee (in The Coalition Years, 1996-2012, 2017) and former Indian High Commissioner in Bangladesh Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty (in Transformation: Emergence of Bangladesh and Evolution of India-Bangladesh Ties, 2024) — two influential Indian figures with deep involvement in Bangladesh’s affairs — openly acknowledge New Delhi’s longstanding authority in shaping Bangladesh’s political landscape.

Amid these developments, a self-respecting Bangladeshi will consider boycotting India. On 7 August, the Financial Times ran the following headline: ‘India’s Bangladesh bet backfires spectacularly after Sheikh Hasina is ousted.’ Shafqat Munir, Senior Fellow at the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies, remarked, ‘There is a lot of angst in New Delhi right now about what shape the incoming Bangladesh’s government will take.’

*

However, maintaining a close relationship founded on mutual respect is crucial for the long-term peace, prosperity and economic development of both India and Bangladesh. The two countries are tied by deep-rooted commonalities — civilisational and cultural ties, shared languages, economic connections, and a rich heritage in music, literature and the arts. With 4,000-kilometres of shared borders, and confronted with significant challenges including climate change, water management and terrorism, Chief Adviser of the Interim Government Muhammad Yunus emphasises the importance of fostering a strong tie with India, telling the FT ‘We are neighbours and we need each other.’

India is a rising power of 1.4 billion people and a US$3.5 trillion economy. Martin Wolf, Chief Economic Commentator of the FT, argues that by the middle of this century, it would be surprising if India — then with a projected population of 1.7–1.8 billion people — does not emerge as a superpower. Thus, the West has increasingly aligned their interests with India. The European Union and the United Kingdom now prioritises India as atop trade partner, and many Western corporations view India as a major potential market. Moreover, amid rising geo-political tensions in South Asia, the United States engages with India as a strategic partner to counter China’s influence in the region.

*

Changing global power dynamics and India’s economic future offers Bangladesh a unique opportunity to benefit from regional prosperity — if the relationship is managed strategically. In Europe, for instance, it was not only France and Germany that became wealthy; the entire continent collectively prospered. In contrast, most African countries have remained poor, demonstrating the opposite trend. Supporting this perspective — Tim Marshall in Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps that Tell You Everything You Need to Know About Global Politics (2015), Paul Colliers in The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can be Done About It (2008), and Daron Açemoglu and James A. Robinson in Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty (2013) — argue that proximity to a thriving nation promote economic growth. Likewise, a successful Bangladesh is more likely to be a strong ally of India than a failing one, as Vinod Khosla argues, insisting that India should support Bangladesh’s Interim Government.

The interdependence between Bangladesh and India is evident variously. Bangladesh urgently requires a more cooperative attitude from India to address the severe impact of climate change — most notably from rising sea levels — which threaten its coastal regions. Bangladesh can also benefit from India’s support in areas like electricity and critical infrastructure projects. Easing tariffs and removing barriers to Bangladeshi exports would significantly contribute to the latter’s economic growth.

India, in turn, relies on Bangladesh for connecting and stabilising its Seven Sisters states in the north-east, which have long struggled with isolation and insurgencies. The access to transformation routes through Bangladesh offers India an efficient and cost-effective means to move goods and materials to these regions, underscoring Bangladesh’s crucial role in internal cohesion and regional stability.

But the two nations cannot be on the same boat without resolving key bilateral issues. Md Shariful Islam identifies three key obstacles to sustainable relations between the two nations: water-sharing, border killings, and trade imbalances. During Sheikh Hasina’s second tenure as Prime Minister (2009–2024), progress has been made in areas such as visa simplification and the resolution of land and maritime boundary discord. However, longstanding disagreement over water-sharing remains unresolved. Bangladesh shares 50 rivers with India, including the vital Ganges and Brahmaputra. Cooperation on water-sharing and joint river management is important for agriculture, flood control and addressing climate change. Additionally, India’s Border Security Force’s so-called ‘Shoot-to-kill’ policy at the Indo-Bangladesh border is a serious concern, as pointed out by Human Rights Watch.

India’s approach to Bangladesh reflects an immature foreign policy unable to withstand regime changes. By aligning closely with one person (Sheikh Hasina) rather than fostering a broader relationship with the people of the country and by encouraging anti-Bangladesh propaganda, India exposes a shortsightedness that undermines its regional strategy, particularly the countering of China’s growing influence. A recent report by the International Crisis Group underscores this concern, urging India to ‘repair its fragile relations with Bangladesh’.

Dhaka and New Delhi must adopt forward-looking approaches rather than engaging in reactionary politics. Both nations should recognise that it is not only their histories that are intertwined, but more importantly, their futures. Collective efforts grounded in shared interests will foster economic prosperity and ensure peaceful coexistence, thereby proving Chanakya’s narrative as out-of-date.

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent the views of the ‘South Asia @ LSE’ blog, the LSE South Asia Centre or the London School of Economics and Political Science. Please click here for our Comments Policy.

This blogpost may not be reposted by anyone without prior written consent of LSE South Asia Centre; please e-mail southasia@lse.ac.uk for permission.

Banner image © Austin Curtis, ‘Ferrymen, Buriganga River’, 2024, Unsplash.

 

[Saif]

Balancing trade, geopolitics, and economic sovereignty in the Indian Ocean

India's grand assertion of securing control over Bangladesh's Mongla Port has become a major diplomatic embarrassment. After months of celebrating its perceived strategic victory over China and strengthening its regional influence, India has now been confronted with an unexpected reality-Pakistan's

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Bangladesh's maritime crossroads
Balancing trade, geopolitics, and economic sovereignty in the Indian Ocean
GHULAM SUHRAWARDI
Published :
Apr 02, 2025 23:15
Updated :
Apr 02, 2025 23:15

India's grand assertion of securing control over Bangladesh's Mongla Port has become a major diplomatic embarrassment. After months of celebrating its perceived strategic victory over China and strengthening its regional influence, India has now been confronted with an unexpected reality-Pakistan's cargo ships docking at the very port it claimed to control. This geopolitical twist has cast doubts over India's long-term maritime strategy in Bangladesh, highlighting the volatile regional power struggle.

This article delves into the geopolitical and economic ramifications of the Mongla Port controversy, situating it within the broader contest for influence over Bangladesh's maritime infrastructure. The Mongla Port deal, initially perceived as a strategic win for India, has now been thrust into uncertainty, particularly with Pakistan's unexpected presence. Beyond Mongla, Bangladesh's port network-including Matarbari, Chattogram, and Payra-has become a pivotal arena in the India-China rivalry, with Japan and Pakistan emerging as influential stakeholders in the Bay of Bengal.

As Bangladesh aspires to solidify its position as a key maritime hub, its ports' comparative strengths and strategic significance will be assessed against regional counterparts like Sri Lanka's Colombo and Hambantota, Myanmar's Sittwe, and Pakistan's Gwadar. The article also examines how Bangladesh can balance foreign investments, economic growth, and security considerations, ensuring its maritime ambitions are pursued without compromising sovereignty. The Mongla dispute has already exposed the fragility of India's influence, raising pressing questions about the future of Bangladesh's port strategy. Will Bangladesh emerge as an independent maritime force, or will its strategic choices be shaped by external powers vying for dominance in the Indian Ocean.

ASSESSING THE FEASIBILITY OF BANGLADESH'S PORT INFRASTRUCTURE PLANS: Bangladesh's maritime sector is the lifeline of its economy, with over 92 per cent of trade conducted through its ports. As the country's trade volume continues to grow, its existing port infrastructure faces increasing pressure, necessitating deep-sea port projects to accommodate larger vessels and enhance connectivity. Recognising this need, Bangladesh has pursued three key projects-Matarbari, Payra, and Sonadia-each with distinct potential, challenges, and geopolitical implications. While some projects have gained international backing and momentum, others have struggled with feasibility issues or geopolitical roadblocks.

MATARBARI, PAYRA, AND SONADIA: BANGLADESH'S PORT DILEMMA IN A SHIFTING GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE: As Bangladesh advances its efforts to modernise its maritime infrastructure and expand its role in regional trade, three deep-sea port projects-Matarbari, Payra, and Sonadia-have come to represent not only the country's economic aspirations but also the complex web of geopolitical forces shaping South Asia. Each project embodies a distinct set of opportunities and challenges, reflecting the broader strategic contest between major global powers vying for influence in the Bay of Bengal.

MATARBARI: THE CROWN JEWEL OF BANGLADESH'S MARITIME FUTURE: Among the three, Matarbari is the most viable and strategically promising option. Backed by Japanese investment through JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency), the port benefits from cutting-edge engineering, sound financial planning, and strong regional support. Designed as an artificial deep-sea port with a 16-meter draft, it can handle Panamax and Capesize vessels, ensuring Bangladesh can accommodate larger cargo ships and expand its trade capacity. Its proximity to Chattogram makes integration with existing transport networks seamless, reinforcing its potential as the country's primary maritime gateway.

Despite the high construction costs and environmental considerations, Matarbari's strong financial and technical backing from Japan ensures steady progress. With full-scale operations expected by 2030, it is poised to become Bangladesh's premier deep-sea port, strengthening its position as a key player in regional trade.

PAYRA: AN AMBITIOUS PROJECT FACING UNCERTAIN WATERS: Payra, once envisioned as a deep-sea port capable of revolutionizing Bangladesh's maritime sector, has encountered severe feasibility challenges that cast doubt on its long-term sustainability. The high sedimentation rates in its location require costly and continuous dredging, leading experts to question whether the project can justify its enormous maintenance costs. Without substantial foreign investment or technical assistance, Payra remains a high-risk venture that may not deliver the expected economic benefits. As a result, what was initially planned as a deep-sea port has now been downgraded to a standard port, significantly reducing its strategic importance. Without a viable economic model or external funding, Payra risks becoming an expensive miscalculation, struggling to maintain relevance in Bangladesh's evolving port landscape.

SONADIA: THE GEOPOLITICAL PAWN THAT NEVER MATERIALISED: Sonadia was once Bangladesh's most promising deep-sea port project, with China poised to finance and develop it as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, the project became a flashpoint in the India-China rivalry, as New Delhi strongly opposed Beijing's involvement, citing security concerns and strategic influence in the Bay of Bengal. Under pressure from India, Bangladesh ultimately scrapped the Sonadia project, redirecting its deep-sea port ambitions toward Japan-backed Matarbari instead. This move reflected India's successful diplomatic influence in preventing a Chinese foothold in Bangladesh's maritime sector. While Sonadia was once seen as a game-changer for regional trade, it has become a symbol of geopolitical sacrifice, effectively buried under the weight of great power competition.

NAVIGATING BANGLADESH'S MARITIME FUTURE: Among Bangladesh's deep-sea port ambitions, Matarbari has emerged as the clear frontrunner, benefiting from robust financial backing, strategic planning, and long-term feasibility. Payra, meanwhile, faces existential challenges, with doubts over its economic viability and sustainability. Sonadia, once a promising prospect, has been politically sidelined, with India ensuring that Bangladesh remains aligned with its regional strategic interests over China's economic expansion. As Bangladesh charts its maritime future, its choices will have profound implications-not just for its own economic growth and trade expansion but also for the geopolitical balance in the Indian Ocean. With Matarbari taking center stage, the question remains: Can Bangladesh leverage its ports to assert economic independence, or will its maritime strategy continue to be shaped by competing global interests?

BANGLADESH'S STRATEGIC TIGHTROPE: BALANCING ECONOMIC GROWTH AND GEOPOLITICAL PRESSURES IN THE BAY OF BENGAL: Situated at the nexus of South and Southeast Asia, Bangladesh has emerged as a critical player in the geopolitical contest for influence over the Indian Ocean region. With India, China, Japan, and the United States all seeking strategic footholds in its maritime infrastructure, Bangladesh's approach to port development and economic expansion has become a high-stakes balancing act. As it undertakes ambitious port projects, Dhaka must navigate the fine line between attracting foreign investment and safeguarding its sovereignty, ensuring that economic growth does not come at the expense of strategic autonomy.

Bangladesh's port development strategy is shaped by economic imperatives and geopolitical realities. Matarbari, backed by Japan, is the most financially and technically viable deep-sea port project, offering a sustainable solution to Bangladesh's growing maritime trade demands. In contrast, Payra faces mounting feasibility concerns, with high maintenance costs and infrastructure challenges threatening its long-term viability. Meanwhile, Sonadia-a once-promising deep-sea project backed by China-was politically sidelined due to Indian opposition, reflecting the broader power struggle between Beijing and New Delhi over Bangladesh's strategic alignment.

As Bangladesh moves forward, its port investments must prioritize long-term economic benefits over external political pressures. By maintaining a diverse network of trade and investment partnerships, Bangladesh can leverage its strategic location without becoming overly dependent on any single global power. The challenge lies in ensuring that its ports remain engines of economic prosperity rather than arenas of geopolitical contestation-a delicate yet essential balance in shaping the nation's maritime future.

INDIA'S STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES: INFLUENCE AND CONNECTIVITY: For India, Bangladesh serves as a crucial transit hub, particularly for its landlocked northeastern states, making access to Bangladesh's ports a key strategic objective. New Delhi has actively opposed Chinese involvement in Sonadia, citing security concerns, but remains comfortable with Japan's investment in Matarbari, which aligns with its regional interests. India aims to secure preferential access to Mongla and Chattogram ports, solidifying its influence in Bangladesh's coastal and inland connectivity while countering Chinese expansion.

CHINA'S EXPANDING FOOTPRINT: THE MARITIME SILK ROAD IN BANGLADESH: As part of its Maritime Silk Road Initiative, China views Bangladesh as a critical link in its broader Indian Ocean trade network. Beijing has already invested heavily in Bangladesh's infrastructure, spanning rail, ports, and energy sectors, with active involvement in Mongla, Chattogram, and Payra port projects. However, this growing presence has triggered resistance from India, which sees Chinese influence as a strategic challenge in its own backyard. Despite geopolitical friction, Bangladesh continues to welcome Chinese investments, recognizing their potential to transform its maritime sector and enhance its global trade competitiveness.

JAPAN'S ROLE -- A NEUTRAL BUT STRATEGIC PLAYER: Unlike India and China, Japan has historically maintained friendly relations with Bangladesh without causing significant geopolitical tensions. Through JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency), Tokyo is funding the Matarbari Deep-Sea Port, a move widely interpreted as a counterbalance to China's growing influence in Bangladesh's port development. Japan's involvement is seen as a diplomatic middle ground, allowing Bangladesh to expand its maritime capabilities without fully aligning with either China or India.

THE UNITED STATES: A STRATEGIC COUNTERWEIGHT TO CHINA: The United States has shown increasing interest in the Bay of Bengal, viewing it as a crucial theater in its Indo-Pacific strategy. While Washington's direct involvement in Bangladesh's port infrastructure has been limited so far, it is closely monitoring China's growing foothold in the country. Recent U.S. support for Bangladesh's defense modernization suggests an effort to strengthen security ties and prevent an excessive tilt toward China. This aligns with India's broader Indo-Pacific strategy, potentially leading to greater U.S. engagement in Bangladesh's strategic affairs.

STEERING THROUGH THE CROSSCURRENTS OF GLOBAL POWER RIVALRIES: As Bangladesh charts its course through the complex waters of economic expansion and geopolitical competition, it must master the art of strategic diplomacy to ensure that its maritime policies align with national interests and regional stability. With China offering extensive infrastructure funding, India asserting its regional influence, Japan presenting a neutral yet strategic alternative, and the United States monitoring Beijing's growing presence, Bangladesh's port development strategy is far more than an economic endeavor-it is a test of its diplomatic agility. The choices Dhaka makes today will shape its trade potential and define its geopolitical alignment in the evolving Indo-Pacific order.

At the heart of Bangladesh's maritime ambitions lies a delicate balancing act-harnessing foreign investments to fuel economic growth while preserving sovereignty and avoiding excessive dependence on any single power. The competing interests of global players offer both opportunities and risks, requiring Bangladesh to strategically diversify its partnerships while ensuring that its ports remain engines of economic progress rather than pawns in geopolitical conflicts.

By carefully managing these relationships, Bangladesh can assert itself as an independent maritime and economic force, strengthening its position as a regional trade hub without compromising its autonomy. The road ahead is intricate, but with pragmatic diplomacy, innovative investment strategies, and a commitment to national interests, Bangladesh can cement its role as a rising economic power in the Indian Ocean-one that navigates global rivalries with confidence and foresight.

Ghulam Suhrawardi is the publisher of the USA-based South Asia Journal, author of Bangladesh Maritime History and nautical publications, and President of the Bangladesh Marine Academy Alumni Association.​

 

[Saif]

Water treaties, Hasina extradition, regional trade dominate discussion

Water-sharing treaties on Ganges and Teesta rivers, Hasina extradition and regional trade facilitation dominated discussion as Bangladesh Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi finally held a much-hyped meeting Friday in Bangkok. &nbsp

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Numerous takeaways from Yunus-Modi maiden meet
Water treaties, Hasina extradition, regional trade dominate discussion
FE REPORT
Published :
Apr 04, 2025 23:52
Updated :
Apr 04, 2025 23:52

Chief Adviser Prof Dr Muhammad Yunus and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi sit in a tête-à-tête on the sidelines of the 6th BIMSTEC Summit at Shangri-La Hotel in the Thai capital of Bangkok on Friday. — PID

Water-sharing treaties on Ganges and Teesta rivers, Hasina extradition and regional trade facilitation dominated discussion as Bangladesh Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi finally held a much-hyped meeting Friday in Bangkok.

The leaders of the two major South Asian countries "greeted each other with mutual respect and a shared openness for dialogue. Their 40-minute exchange was candid, productive, and constructive," says a spokesperson for the Chief Adviser's Office.

At the one-on-one between the current heads of government of post-uprising Bangladesh and of India, held on the sidelines of BIMSTEC summit, both of them committed to advancing ties, which got strained following the August-5th changeover in Bangladesh through the toppling of ex-premier Sheikh Hasina, staying in exile in India ever since.

"Bangladesh deeply values its relationship with India," said Professor Yunus during thetamit talk.

"The deep-rooted friendship between our two countries is founded on intertwined histories, geographical proximity, and cultural affinity. We remain thankful for the unwavering support of the government and people of India during our most challenging time in 1971."

Although this was the first face-to-face meeting between the two heads of government, Professor Yunus emphasised that the countries remained engaged in numerous bilateral interactions over the past eight months since he took over.

Addressing the challenges facing the relationship between the two next-door neighbours, the chief adviser said, "Excellency, we seek to work together with you to set the relationship on the right track for the benefit of both our peoples."

The Nobel-laureate economist, who assumed the chairmanship of BIMSTEC, sought the support of India for a free-trade agreement (FTA) among the seven members of the sub-regional grouping encompassing South and Southeast Asia.

Professor Yunus called for discussions to renew the Ganges Water Treaty and to conclude the stalled Teesta Water-sharing Agreement.

Prime Minister Narendra Modij congratulated Professor Yunus on his assumption of the BIMSTEC chair, and he greeted him on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr.

The Indian Prime Minister said New Delhi always attached the "highest priority" to its relationship with Dhaka. The history of the two neighbours is "intricately linked, and it goes back to the birth of Bangladesh".

Prime Minister Modi cited the global stature of Prof Yunus. He said India would always support a "progressive, democratic and inclusive Bangladesh".

He makes it clear that India does not support any particular party in Bangladesh. "Our relationship is people-to-people," the Indian Prime Minister said.

Professor Yunus enquired about the status of Bangladesh's request for extradition of Sheikh Hasina, the unseated former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, which remains pending with the Indian government.

He points out that the former Prime Minister has been making inflammatory remarks in various media outlets and attempting to destabilise the situation in Bangladesh, which seemed to be an abuse of the hospitality India has extended to her.

"She has consistently made false and inflammatory accusations against the interim government of Bangladesh," Professor Yunus stated.

"We request that the Government of India take appropriate measures to restrain her from continuing to make such incendiary statements while she remains in your country."

Professor Yunus also referenced the OHCHR's Fact-Finding Report, which confirmed "serious human-rights violations and abuses committed by security forces and armed Awami League activists between July 15 and August 5, 2024".

He said the OHCHR report estimated that 1,400 protest-related deaths occurred, with approximately 13 per cent of the victims being children. He stated the UN fact-finders found "reasonable grounds to believe that crimes against humanity, such as murder, torture, and other inhumane acts were committed" during the protests.

The UN report notes that the Prime Minister herself had ordered security forces to kill protesters and specifically instructed them to 'arrest the ringleaders, kill them, and hide their bodies'.

The Indian Prime Minister blamed social media for the tensions around Sheikh Hasina's remarks. He reiterated that India's attachment is with a country, not with any individuals or political organisations.

Professor Yunus also raised the issue of border killings and stressed that working together to reduce the number of fatalities would not only save many families' great anguish but would also help build trust and confidence and to strengthen the relationship between India and Bangladesh.

"I always felt the pain when these killings happen," the Bangladesh Chief Adviser said, urging India to find "ways and means" to prevent the incidents.

Prime Minister Modi said Indian border troops opened fire "only in self-defence and the fatalities occurred in Indian territories".

The two sides stressed the need for working together on this issue.

Professor Yunus struck a note of optimism about Bangladesh's chairmanship of BIMSTEC, saying that Bangladesh aims to increase the visibility of BIMSTEC and hopes that the organisation will emerge as an effective and vibrant entity capable of fulfilling the aspirations of the people in the region by giving them an efficient route for exporting and importing goods around the world.

Responding to Prime Minister Modi's concern over the condition of minorities in Bangladesh, the Chief Adviser said the reports of attacks on the minorities were hugely inflated and "the bulk of them were fake news".

He asked the Indian leader to send reporters to Bangladesh to investigate the alleged attacks themselves.

The Chief Adviser said he instituted an effective system for monitoring every incident of religious and gender violence in the country, and his government was taking serious actions to stop any such occurrence.

Both leaders concluded their fruitful and honest dialogue by wishing each other good health and personal wellbeing. They extended their best wishes for continued peace, progress, and prosperity for the two peoples.

Bangladesh foreign adviser Md Tauhid Hossain, High Representative of the Chief Adviser Dr Khalilur Rahman, Indian foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and national security adviser Ajit Doval were among others present on the occasion.​