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[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy

[🇧🇩] Monitoring Bangladesh's Economy
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Remittance inflows jump 15.4 percent to $2.85bn in July

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Expatriate Bangladeshis sent home US$2.85 billion in remittances during July, the opening month of the fiscal year FY2026–27, registering a 15.4 percent year-on-year growth, according to the latest data from Bangladesh Bank.

During the corresponding period of July 2025, the country received $2.47 billion in workers' remittances.

The central bank figures reveal that in the final two days of the month (July 30–31) alone, overseas workers remitted $152 million through official banking channels.

The strong start to the new fiscal year underscores a sustained upward trajectory in remittance inflows, driven by continued policy incentives and expatriates’ growing preference for legal banking channels.

Economic analysts note that the steady inflow of foreign currency will further bolster Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves, easing import payment pressures and supporting broader macroeconomic stability.

Remittance remains one of the primary drivers of Bangladesh’s economy alongside export earnings, serving as a critical lifeline for foreign currency reserves and domestic household consumption.​
 
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Achieving macroeconomic sustainability


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Against the backdrop of energy crunch and a hostile international tariff and trade regime, the country's macroeconomic challenges have become more daunting than before. So, the need for addressing the problems facing manufacturing and business sectors is compelling. The series of meetings between Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and the country's top business leaders that have already started can be considered a positive development. On many of the suggestions, the prime minister has taken instant decisions. Organised by the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (BIDA), the Saturday's interactive meeting focused on export diversification, trade facilitation and the ongoing power crunch. Reportedly, decisions have already been taken on 21 of the 28 issues raised by the business community in an earlier such parley. The emphasis put on public-private partnership by the premier in developing key infrastructure can bring about positive changes in the import-export ecosystem.

This certainly refers to investment which has become scarce and the energy crisis makes injection of funds ---both local and foreign---a difficult proposition. Due to a lack of gas supply, a large number of factories and industries have been forced either to operate below capacity or suspend operation. In a situation like this, no investor is expected to outlay money in new ventures or in existing ones for their expansion or modernisation. But without investments, diversification of exports is out of question. Energy crisis has hit the industrial sector hard. So, this crisis has to be addressed on a priority basis. Overdependence on imported fossil fuels has led the country into a trade trap and it is so integrally linked to production and export of goods and commodities that maintaining the current export orders has proved impossible. Unless a solution to the energy crisis--- preferably on the renewable energy front--- is found, achieving the target of US$100 billion in exports will remain elusive.

Again, if efficiency of productive units is raised and lead times in export and import at the ports, particularly the Chattorgram Port, cannot be reduced, the country's international trade cannot become competitive. Responding to the business community's demand, the prime minister has ordered 24-hour operation at Chattogram port. However, a review by the Chattogram Customs House (CCH) has found that importers and their clearing and forwarding (C&F) agents are responsible for time lapses, taking 80 per cent of the total port clearance time. Customs automation is thus undermined and its benefits are compromised. Before blaming the port authorities, importers should also be more prompt to get their imports released. Even the most efficient automation arrangement cannot cut the lead time in handling export and import goods if traders themselves make inordinate delay in completing the due process.

Another important demand made by business leaders is establishment of internationally accredited testing laboratories at both seaports and airports. This is important for meeting global quality standards like ISO/IEC 17025 or ISO 15189. These calibration laboratories test export products and medical samples to ensure that they are safe and accurate. Such measures must not wait for implementation because the country's exports and economy are in a dire need to recover from the sluggish pace. In this context, the reported arrival of about 45 senior executives from 25 leading US companies by the end of next week to explore investment opportunities in Bangladesh is likely to be a positive development. It can open up avenues for foreign direct investment in the country.​
 
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How Bangladesh's SEACO plan could strengthen trade across the Muslim world


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Tight monetary policy harming recovery

Says BB panel

Star Business Report

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A Bangladesh Bank policy panel has concluded that keeping monetary policy this tight is starting to do more harm to Bangladesh’s economic recovery than good for controlling prices, a shift in thinking that led the central bank to cut its policy rate for the first time in six years recently.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), meeting on July 30, recommended lowering the policy rate by 50 basis points to 9.5 percent. The BB acted on the recommendation the same day, bringing the rate, at which it lends to commercial banks, down from the 10 percent level it had held since October 2024.

“Inflation is still higher than the medium-term target, and low domestic demand, weak private investment, and worsening growth prospects indicate that keeping a very strict policy could impact economic recovery more than it would help reduce prices,” the committee said, according to minutes of the meeting published by the central bank.

The reasoning marks a turn for a central bank that had held its rate at a record high for nearly two years to fight inflation, which has run above 8.5 percent on average since fiscal year 2022-23. Inflation eased to 9.16 percent in June, from 9.42 percent in May, but remains above the government’s target.

The MPC’s minutes credit the tight policy since mid-2024 with helping bring inflation down, strengthening the external sector, stabilising the exchange rate under a market-based system, and improving the overall effectiveness of monetary policy. But the committee said that phase has run its course.

Global inflation has largely normalised, the panel noted, international commodity prices have stayed broadly stable, and the taka-dollar exchange rate has held steady, sharply reducing the imported inflation Bangladesh faced earlier.

“Persistent domestic inflation is now driven primarily by structural and supply-side factors, including food supply disruptions, administered energy prices, market inefficiencies, and distribution bottlenecks, rather than excessive aggregate demand,” the minutes stated.

“Consequently, further monetary tightening would likely yield limited additional benefits for inflation while imposing increasing costs on growth and employment,” it added.

The committee also flagged exceptionally weak private sector credit growth, taking into account the combined effects of elevated borrowing costs and energy constraints, will continue to dampen investment and business confidence.

Weighing the trade-offs, the MPC judged that a modest cut from 10 percent to 9.5 percent would carry limited inflationary risk while supporting industrial production, employment, and broader economic activity.

“The committee therefore endorsed a more balanced monetary policy approach that supports both price stability and economic recovery,” the minutes said.

To improve the responsiveness, transparency, and effectiveness of monetary policy in a rapidly changing environment, the panel also recommended that the BB set monetary policy on a quarterly basis, rather than the current semiannual schedule.​
 
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Curbing inflation: Job is not done yet


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The country has been experiencing high inflation in recent years, leading to an erosion in the real income of a large segment of the population. Though the central bank has maintained a tight monetary stance by keeping the policy rate unchanged at a high level for more than two years, inflationary pressures has not eased substantially. The annual average rate of inflation dropped to 8.68 per cent at the end of FY26 from 10.03 per cent in FY25. Moreover, on a point-to-point basis, the rate of inflation reached 9.16 per cent in June this year, the last month of FY26. The rate was 8.48 per cent at the end of FY25, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) estimate. A point-to-point estimate usually provides a better picture of inflation.

As several factors have kept prices at higher levels over the last couple of years, it seems not that easy to bring them down. The central bank's tight monetary stance over the last two years has raised questions about its effectiveness in reducing inflation. It has also sparked the old debate over the factors of inflation.

Historically, there are two broad schools of thought regarding the causes of inflation. One belongs to the structuralists who view inflation as a structural problem. It means, inflation is 'essentially the inevitable result of trying to push development strategies without making the necessary structural reforms.' Proponents of the other school are monetarists who view inflation as a 'monetary phenomenon caused by inappropriate monetary and fiscal policies.'

The failure of the stabilisation policies pursued by many governments under the guidance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) led to the development of the 'structuralist' school of thought in Latin America during the '50s and '60s. According to this view, inflation is essentially a phenomenon inseparable from the forced growth process pursued in the case of developing countries, overlooking various structural constraints. These include: factor immobility, market imperfections and rigidities and disequilibrium between supply and demand in different sectors of the economy. The 'monetarists', however, defended the official IMF position that inflation is a nominal phenomenon and could be controlled by appropriate monetary and fiscal policies. These two schools continue to have a very powerful influence on all economic analyses of inflation in developing countries, including Bangladesh.

M A Taslim, in his paper titled 'Inflation in Bangladesh: A Re-examination of the Structuralist-Monetarist Controversy' (The Bangladesh Development Studies, March 1982), discussed the issue critically. He concluded that both factors were at work behind the country's high inflation during the '70s.

After more than four decades, the mixed role of factors mentioned by both schools are found valid here. However, the role of the money supply in inflation is now more prominent in Bangladesh than it was three or four decades ago. The country's money market has expanded and also diversified to some extent, along with higher monetary transactions. Credit growth now responds more to changes in policy rates. Finally, inflationary movements are now linked to interest rate fluctuations more than they were two to three decades ago-all of which support the case for manoeuvring monetary policy to curb the rising trend of inflation.

Nevertheless, compared to advanced developing countries like India, the monetary tightening to curb inflation in Bangladesh has not yet reached an optimal level. In other words, the limitations of monetary policy are more evident here, given the strong presence of structural factors in the economy. For instance, even with sufficient food grain production to meet demand, the surge in supply costs may push inflation higher for the time being.

Bangladesh Bank's quarterly analytical note on inflation titled 'Inflation Dynamics in Bangladesh' provides some significant insights regarding the movement of inflation. It analyses the key determinants of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation and wage trends in Bangladesh. The report provides a decomposition of headline inflation, along with core, food, and energy inflation. It also highlights product-wise drivers of headline inflation every quarter.

The report on the last quarter of FY26 observed higher inflation, primarily driven by non-food inflation, particularly energy. "Energy inflation surged due to increased contributions from liquid fuels and gas prices. Solid fuels (such as firewood, agricultural by-products, cow dung, and jute sticks), with a total weight of 3.59, continue to be a major contributor to energy inflation," it added. The report also noted that the modest rise in food inflation in the last quarter was driven by protein-based items, which remained the largest contributor, accounting for nearly half of overall food inflation.

According to BBS, food inflation stood at 8.60 per cent in June this year, down from 9.06 per cent in May, reflecting a slight decline in the price level of food items. The rate was 7.39 per cent in June last year, indicating that food inflation did not ease significantly in the last fiscal year.

Non-food inflation also showed a slight decline in June this year to 9.61 per cent from 9.71 per cent in May. The rate, however, was 9.37 per cent in June last year, which means inflationary pressure originating from non-food sources prevailed in FY26.

On the annual trend of inflation, the report concluded that FY26 has reflected 'lower and more stable inflation across components' compared to the higher and more volatile patterns observed in FY25. The conclusion is based on a technical analysis, Kernel Density Estimates of Inflation, and may not fully reflect the real-world situation.

The central bank, in its quarterly report on the Bangladesh economy, also acknowledged that inflationary pressures remained a key challenge, continuing to erode the purchasing power of low- and middle-income households. It added that the government and the central bank are maintaining close policy coordination to bring inflation to a comfortable level. It is uncertain when inflation will come down to a comfortable level at or below 7 per cent. Moreover, by cutting the policy rate from 10 per cent to 9.50 per cent after 22 months, Bangladesh Bank has signalled that it is in a shifting mode to support growth rather than curbing inflation. It is also the recognition that monetary tightening has reached its limit and more focus on structural issues is required now.​
 
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BD boasts $6.6b BoP surplus buoyed by external inflows
CAD buildup offset by stronger financial-account inflows

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Bangladesh posted a record balance-of-payments surplus worth US$6.6 billion in the past fiscal year as stronger financial-account inflows helped outdo a gap left by widening current-account deficit.

The overall balance surplus was nearly 95-percent higher than the previous fiscal year's level, according to the latest balance-of- payments data from the central bank.

The current-account deficit widened to $1.59 billion in the FY2025-26 from just $138 million a year earlier.

Economists attribute the overall surplus largely to a sharp increase in the financial account, which rose to $7.89 billion during the year.

The financial account was supported mainly by the "other investment" category, which includes loans and other forms of financing from multilateral and other international institutions.

Trade credit, a form of short-term cross-border financing, also contributed to the increase.

The divergent movements in the current and financial accounts signify the extent to which external financing helped Bangladesh maintain a surplus in its overall balance of payments despite a sizeable trade deficit.

The trade deficit widened to $27.29 billion during the year, with imports far outstripping exports.

Export earnings edged down to $43.86 billion during the period, while import payments rose to $71.14 billion, accounting for an increase of more than 10 per cent.

The sharp rise in import costs was partly driven by higher global energy prices amid the red-hot Middle East crisis.

Payments for petroleum products surged by 107 per cent during the period, according to the central bank data.

Capital-machinery imports also picked up, rising by nearly 14 per cent as business activity and investment sentiment improved following the February general election.

Despite the widening current-account deficit, the overall external position remained comfortable, says Dr Ezazul Islam, director-general of the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management or BIBM.

"I think the BoP remained in the comfort zone despite the widening current-account deficit," Dr Islam told The Financial Express.

He said the current-account deficit was not an immediate concern because exports started recovering.

Dr Islam, a former executive director of Bangladesh Bank's research department, said the central bank's exchange-rate policy had helped make the local currency more attractive and supported remittance inflows.

"The exchange rate remained stable due to the pursuit of a strong policy during the period," he added.

Another economist, who requested anonymity, said the improvement in the balance of payments was partly driven by increased external borrowing.

Such inflows could strengthen the external position in the short term, the economist said, but they also create future repayment obligations for Bangladesh.

The economist notes that the inflows had nevertheless helped the country rebuild its foreign-exchange reserves and improve its external liquidity position for the time being.

The latest figures underline the changing composition of Bangladesh's external balance: while the trade and current accounts remained under pressure, borrowing and other financial inflows provided a substantial offset and pushed the overall balance into a record surplus, he commented.​
 
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Diversifying export: It's urgent


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Major policy incentives incorporated in the budget for fiscal year (FY2026-27) to widen the country's export base are a welcome development. At a recent briefing, the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (BIDA) informed business leaders that 10 more export-oriented sectors, including motorcycles, fish processing, diversified jute products, handicrafts and recycled textile products, would be allowed to import raw materials duty-free against bank guarantees without obtaining bond licences. The minimum 30 per cent value addition on goods produced with such imported inputs has also been withdrawn. Alongside these measures are a 14-day service guarantee for business approvals through a single window, automatic approval after expiry of the stipulated time, three-year bond licences and fast-track customs facilities. Evidently, the government has begun to address procedural barriers that have long discouraged new exporters.

But the urgency of export diversification has never been greater. According to provisional data of the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), Bangladesh earned US$48 billion from merchandise exports in FY2025-26, 0.58 per cent below the previous year. Of that amount, the readymade garment (RMG) sector fetched US$38.70 billion, or 80.62 per cent of the total. So, despite decades of policies and speeches promising diversification, four out of every five export dollars still come from apparel. What happens when garment demand weakens, buyers force down prices, trade preferences disappear or a large market raises tariffs? The entire external sector then catches cold. This dependence is a structural risk to employment, foreign exchange earnings and macroeconomic stability.

In this connection, extending duty-free input facilities beyond traditional beneficiaries can lower entry costs for new exporters and release scarce working capital. Small and medium entrepreneurs, who cannot maintain a bonded warehouse or wait months for duty drawback, stand to gain in particular. Likewise, accepting reports from accredited private laboratories and simplifying tax, VAT and customs procedures should help. For exporters, time lost in obtaining a licence or clearing an input is as real a cost as tax. However, budget facilities do not automatically create competitive industries. They work only when customs decisions are predictable, energy supply is dependable, port delays are reduced and businesses can obtain affordable credit.

Removing the minimum value-addition requirement altogether also has a downside. The measure may help new exporters, but it could encourage import-and-re-export activities with little domestic processing. Worse still, duty-free inputs may be diverted to the local market unless the bank-guarantee system is backed by real-time digital tracking, risk-based audits and punishment for abuse. As Bangladesh moves towards graduation from the least developed country category, rules of origin in its major markets will become more, not less, important. So, the government should review how much local employment, technology transfer and net foreign exchange each beneficiary sector is creating. Export diversification cannot mean diversification of duty exemptions alone.

More importantly, equal access to exemptions is not equal opportunity. Apparel did not become a global export powerhouse merely because its entrepreneurs were energetic. It enjoyed bonded warehouses, back-to-back letters of credit, cash incentives, favourable taxation, export credit and sustained diplomatic attention over decades. Emerging sectors cannot catch up with only a customs concession and a pat on the back. Direct incentives should go to industries meeting measurable targets in export growth, local value addition, job creation, environmental compliance and entry into new markets. Such support may include low-cost credit, reimbursement of certification expenses, matching grants for design and technology upgrades and assistance in overseas branding. The incentives should be time-bound and subject to performance audits so that they do not turn into permanent rents.

Jute deserves special consideration in this regard. At a time when the world is searching for biodegradable alternatives to plastic, Bangladesh possesses the crop, knowledge, mills and history to build a globally recognised green industry. Yet the sector remains confined to raw fibre and traditional sacks, while higher-value products such as geotextiles, composite materials, home furnishings, specialised packaging and fashion accessories remain marginal. Small wonder that the golden fibre is praised in speeches but seldom treated as a modern industrial material. A dedicated jute innovation fund, modern testing laboratories, design support, stable supplies of quality fibre and vigorous international branding could connect rural growers with a more valuable global market.

Leather and leather goods also need focused support. The sector earned about US$1.23 billion in FY2025-26 and has high local value addition, but its potential remains constrained by environmental and compliance failures. Shortcomings of the central effluent treatment plant at Savar and the absence of widely accepted Leather Working Group certification have long prevented producers from obtaining better prices. No duty relief can compensate for failure to meet a buyer's environmental, labour and traceability standards. The government needs to finish the compliance work at Savar, help smaller factories introduce traceability, establish common testing and design facilities and offer patient finance for modern machinery. Leather should not remain another promising sector perpetually waiting to take off.

Against this backdrop, the role of Bangladesh's missions abroad has to be redefined. The country maintains 24 commercial wings in 21 countries, but their work should go beyond ceremonial fairs, business-card exchanges and routine general market reports. Each mission should receive product-specific and country-specific targets for jute, leather, pharmaceuticals, agro-processing, light engineering and digital services. Performance should be measured through verified buyer contacts, business matches, removal of market barriers and export orders facilitated. In fact, the pay, perks, desirable postings and promotions of officials assigned to commercial work should, to a reasonable extent, be linked with such performance. Taxpayers are entitled to ask what commercial return the country receives from these offices.

At the same time, the BIDA, the EPB, the commerce ministry, the foreign ministry and private-sector bodies will have to work from a common market intelligence platform. An exporter should be able to learn what products a particular market demands, which standards apply, who the credible buyers are and what support is available without visiting a maze of offices. The announced facilities for the 10 new sectors provide a useful beginning. But implementation should be transparent, sector-specific and regularly evaluated. That will ensure that public money follows demonstrable results rather than the loudest pressure groups. Unless promising sectors receive direct, performance-wise support and the country's foreign missions are assigned to find new markets, export diversification will remain more a slogan than a strategy.​
 
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Bangladesh’s PMI rises to 57.8 as manufacturing powers July expansion

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Bangladesh’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has risen to 57.8 points in July from 52.9 in June, signalling a stronger expansion in economic activity.

The index, jointly published monthly by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI), Dhaka and Policy Exchange Bangladesh (PEB), tracks activity across agriculture, manufacturing, construction and services.

A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. The July reading therefore points to further economic momentum.

“July’s PMI indicates stronger expansion in economic activity, driven primarily by a strong recovery in manufacturing. Despite significant improvement, construction remains in slight contraction,” MCCI said in a statement.

Manufacturing recorded the strongest expansion, with its PMI jumping 16.6 points to 65.4.

Services rose 1.4 points to 56, extending its expansion streak to 22 months, while agriculture remained in expansion for an 11th consecutive month at 55.2, despite falling 9.6 points.

Construction improved by 9.1 points to 49.3 but remained just below the expansion threshold.

New business and overall activity expanded, while employment slipped slightly into contraction. Input costs and outstanding orders also remained under pressure.

PEB Chairman Masrur Reaz said the July PMI pointed to a strengthening economy, led by manufacturing’s recovery and continued expansion in agriculture and services.​
 
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