[🇧🇩] Indo-Bangla Relation: India's Regional Ambition, Geopolitical Reality, and Strategic Options For Bangladesh

[Bilal9]

Randhir Jaiswal's comment tantamount to interference in internal matters

The remarks made by the spokesperson of India's external affairs ministry regarding Bangladesh's elections, overall law and order situation, and the minority community are unwarranted and tantamount to interference in Bangladesh's internal affairs. Bangladesh hopes that India will take...

en.prothomalo.com

Randhir Jaiswal's comment tantamount to interference in internal matters
Diplomatic Correspondent
Dhaka
Updated: 13 Mar 2025, 17: 51

View attachment 15429

Foreign ministry spokesperson Mohammad Rafiqul Alam at a weekly briefing today, Thursday.Courtesy: Foreign ministry

The remarks made by the spokesperson of India's external affairs ministry regarding Bangladesh's elections, overall law and order situation, and the minority community are unwarranted and tantamount to interference in Bangladesh's internal affairs.

Bangladesh hopes that India will take necessary measures to prevent the recurrence of such comments.

Director general at the public diplomacy division of the foreign ministry and spokesperson Mohammad Rafiqul Alam made the remark in response to a question during the weekly briefing today, Thursday.

On 7 March, during a weekly press briefing in Delhi, in response to a question regarding the current situation in Bangladesh, India's external affairs ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal expressed the expectation of "inclusive and participatory" elections.

He said, "We support a stable, peaceful, inclusive, and progressive Bangladesh, where all issues will be resolved democratically through inclusive and participatory elections."

When asked about the comment made by India's external affairs spokesperson, Rafiqul Alam said, "This matter has come to our attention.

Comments were made regarding Bangladesh's elections, overall law and order, and minority issues. Bangladesh considers these matters to be strictly internal and believes such remarks are unnecessary and an interference in the internal affairs of another country. These comments are misleading and a false reflection of reality."

Foreign ministry spokesperson Rafiqul Alam further stated that Bangladesh firmly believes in the principle of non-interference in the internal matters of any country, as well as the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations. Bangladesh is committed to building a friendly and constructive relationship with India based on mutual respect, trust, and understanding.

He added, "From this perspective, we hope that the relevant authorities of the Indian government will take necessary steps to prevent the recurrence of such comments."

Recently, the chief adviser of the interim government, Professor Muhammad Yunus, in an interview with an international media outlet, stated that Sheikh Hasina's remarks made while in India were dangerous for the country.

When asked for the foreign ministry's response on this issue, the spokesperson said, "After the chief adviser's statement, we do not have the opportunity to comment."

Regarding whether India has responded to Bangladesh’s diplomatic letter regarding Sheikh Hasina's return and what the next steps will be if there has been no response, Rafiqul Alam replied, "The chief adviser has recently responded to this in an interview. Nonetheless, we have not received any response from India. The chief adviser has publicly provided guidance on the next steps."

A diplomatic letter was sent from the Bangladesh high commission in Delhi to the India's external affairs ministry in December of last year, requesting the return of Sheikh Hasina under the extradition treaty.

Regarding the chief adviser's upcoming visit to China, the spokesperson said that further details would be shared later. He mentioned that the chief adviser would depart for China in the afternoon on 26 March.​

This is the foreign policy tone we need in Bangladesh in regards to relations with India. Pointedly firm correctional rebuttals which are clear but polite.

Dadagiri comments not wanted any longer - thank you.

 

[Saif]

This is the foreign policy tone we need in Bangladesh in regards to relations with India. Pointedly firm correctional rebuttals which are clear but polite.

Dadagiri comments not wanted any longer - thank you.

After all, it's a new Bangladesh we are talking about 🙂

 

[Saif]

India's Setback: Indian Intelligence Reveals Bangladesh's Military Command Structure is Strong!

 

[Saif]

Just look at the pictures below. You will see a man who betrayed his country for India. He died a dog's death in India after few years of India's annexation of Sikkim. Sheikh Hasina is a modified version of Lendup Dorji. Thank God! We kicked her out before she could sell Bangladesh to India.

 

[Saif]

The Indian businessmen are lamenting for Bangladeshi tourists. They say their businesses are doomed. Without Bangladeshi tourists they cannot survive.

 

[Bilal9]

The Indian businessmen are lamenting for Bangladeshi tourists. They say their businesses are doomed. Without Bangladeshi tourists they cannot survive.

I believe Modi is killing two birds with one stone here.

1. He is refusing visa for Bangladeshis (supposedly teaching them a lesson).
2. As a result Kolkata economy is ruined, which reduces the popularity of Didi in West Bengal, whom he dislikes.

But little do these Hindutva folks know - that this is going to blow up in their face. BJP is losing its last chance for popularity in West Bengal. There is no political future left for BJP in WB, when the center's actions affect the Ruji-Roti of people in West Bengal. Mamla khatam.

 

[Saif]

I believe Modi is killing two birds with one stone here.

1. He is refusing visa for Bangladeshis (supposedly teaching them a lesson).
2. As a result Kolkata economy is ruined, which reduces the popularity of Didi in West Bengal, whom he dislikes.

But little do these Hindutva folks know - that this is going to blow up in their face. BJP is losing its last chance for popularity in West Bengal. There is no political future left for BJP in WB, when the center's actions affect the Ruji-Roti of people in West Bengal. Mamla khatam.

If necessary we need to help Mamata so that BJP cannot establish itself in West Bengal. Though Mamata has adopted a hardline against Bangladesh in water sharing issue, she is ten times better than BJP and RSS for Bangladesh. Help Mamata to kick BJP and RSS out of West Bengal forever.

 

[Bilal9]

Bilateral relations between Bangladesh & India have hit a seriously low level in the last 6 months, intensified in no small measure by India’s decision to provide refuge to Bangladesh’s ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Ismail Ali considers the fractious atmosphere, especially in mainstream and social media, and asks whether it is in the interest of either country to sustain hostile relations?

In the 4th century BC, the Indian philosopher Chanakya famously said:

Every neighbouring state is an enemy, and the enemy’s enemy is a friend.

While it is unclear whether India views Bangladesh as an enemy state, anti-India sentiment is currently widespread in Bangladesh. Despite the many long-standing unresolved bilateral issues between the two countries, India’s interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs has drawn sharp criticism.

Many Bangladeshis believe that India played a pivotal role in bringing former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to power in 2007 and has supported her authoritarian rule ever since. Observers in Dhaka accuse New Delhi of using its influence on the international stage to shield her brutal regime from scrutiny over its appalling human rights record, including the imprisonment, torture and execution of opposition supporters — enabling Hasina to crush Bangladesh’s democracy. Until her final hour — when she fled to India on 5 August 2024 — New Delhi reportedly pressured Washington to soften its stance on her oppressive rule.

Former Indian President Pranab Mukherjee (in The Coalition Years, 1996-2012, 2017) and former Indian High Commissioner in Bangladesh Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty (in Transformation: Emergence of Bangladesh and Evolution of India-Bangladesh Ties, 2024) — two influential Indian figures with deep involvement in Bangladesh’s affairs — openly acknowledge New Delhi’s longstanding authority in shaping Bangladesh’s political landscape.

Amid these developments, a self-respecting Bangladeshi will consider boycotting India. On 7 August, the Financial Times ran the following headline: ‘India’s Bangladesh bet backfires spectacularly after Sheikh Hasina is ousted.’ Shafqat Munir, Senior Fellow at the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies, remarked, ‘There is a lot of angst in New Delhi right now about what shape the incoming Bangladesh’s government will take.’

*

However, maintaining a close relationship founded on mutual respect is crucial for the long-term peace, prosperity and economic development of both India and Bangladesh. The two countries are tied by deep-rooted commonalities — civilisational and cultural ties, shared languages, economic connections, and a rich heritage in music, literature and the arts. With 4,000-kilometres of shared borders, and confronted with significant challenges including climate change, water management and terrorism, Chief Adviser of the Interim Government Muhammad Yunus emphasises the importance of fostering a strong tie with India, telling the FT ‘We are neighbours and we need each other.’

India is a rising power of 1.4 billion people and a US$3.5 trillion economy. Martin Wolf, Chief Economic Commentator of the FT, argues that by the middle of this century, it would be surprising if India — then with a projected population of 1.7–1.8 billion people — does not emerge as a superpower. Thus, the West has increasingly aligned their interests with India. The European Union and the United Kingdom now prioritises India as atop trade partner, and many Western corporations view India as a major potential market. Moreover, amid rising geo-political tensions in South Asia, the United States engages with India as a strategic partner to counter China’s influence in the region.

*

Changing global power dynamics and India’s economic future offers Bangladesh a unique opportunity to benefit from regional prosperity — if the relationship is managed strategically. In Europe, for instance, it was not only France and Germany that became wealthy; the entire continent collectively prospered. In contrast, most African countries have remained poor, demonstrating the opposite trend. Supporting this perspective — Tim Marshall in Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps that Tell You Everything You Need to Know About Global Politics (2015), Paul Colliers in The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can be Done About It (2008), and Daron Açemoglu and James A. Robinson in Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty (2013) — argue that proximity to a thriving nation promote economic growth. Likewise, a successful Bangladesh is more likely to be a strong ally of India than a failing one, as Vinod Khosla argues, insisting that India should support Bangladesh’s Interim Government.

The interdependence between Bangladesh and India is evident variously. Bangladesh urgently requires a more cooperative attitude from India to address the severe impact of climate change — most notably from rising sea levels — which threaten its coastal regions. Bangladesh can also benefit from India’s support in areas like electricity and critical infrastructure projects. Easing tariffs and removing barriers to Bangladeshi exports would significantly contribute to the latter’s economic growth.

India, in turn, relies on Bangladesh for connecting and stabilising its Seven Sisters states in the north-east, which have long struggled with isolation and insurgencies. The access to transformation routes through Bangladesh offers India an efficient and cost-effective means to move goods and materials to these regions, underscoring Bangladesh’s crucial role in internal cohesion and regional stability.

But the two nations cannot be on the same boat without resolving key bilateral issues. Md Shariful Islam identifies three key obstacles to sustainable relations between the two nations: water-sharing, border killings, and trade imbalances. During Sheikh Hasina’s second tenure as Prime Minister (2009–2024), progress has been made in areas such as visa simplification and the resolution of land and maritime boundary discord. However, longstanding disagreement over water-sharing remains unresolved. Bangladesh shares 50 rivers with India, including the vital Ganges and Brahmaputra. Cooperation on water-sharing and joint river management is important for agriculture, flood control and addressing climate change. Additionally, India’s Border Security Force’s so-called ‘Shoot-to-kill’ policy at the Indo-Bangladesh border is a serious concern, as pointed out by Human Rights Watch.

India’s approach to Bangladesh reflects an immature foreign policy unable to withstand regime changes. By aligning closely with one person (Sheikh Hasina) rather than fostering a broader relationship with the people of the country and by encouraging anti-Bangladesh propaganda, India exposes a shortsightedness that undermines its regional strategy, particularly the countering of China’s growing influence. A recent report by the International Crisis Group underscores this concern, urging India to ‘repair its fragile relations with Bangladesh’.

Dhaka and New Delhi must adopt forward-looking approaches rather than engaging in reactionary politics. Both nations should recognise that it is not only their histories that are intertwined, but more importantly, their futures. Collective efforts grounded in shared interests will foster economic prosperity and ensure peaceful coexistence, thereby proving Chanakya’s narrative as out-of-date.

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent the views of the ‘South Asia @ LSE’ blog, the LSE South Asia Centre or the London School of Economics and Political Science. Please click here for our Comments Policy.

This blogpost may not be reposted by anyone without prior written consent of LSE South Asia Centre; please e-mail southasia@lse.ac.uk for permission.

Banner image © Austin Curtis, ‘Ferrymen, Buriganga River’, 2024, Unsplash.

 

[Saif]

কলকাতায় বাংলাদেশি নেই, না খেয়ে মরার দশা অনেকের (Many businesses in Kolkata have just winded-up due to the absence of Bangladeshi tourists. It is quite evident that India's healthcare sector, transportation, clothing industry and hotel business are heavily dependent on Bangladesh.)

 

[Krishna with Flute]

Dhaka committed to boosting Indian Ocean partnership: foreign adviser

The foreign adviser said the Indian Ocean region is a crucial strategic area that links the Asia-Pacific and African regions, with profound economic, political and security significance

www.thedailystar.net

Dhaka committed to boosting Indian Ocean partnership: foreign adviser

View attachment 14473
Md Touhid Hossain. File photo

Bangladesh has reiterated its commitment to embracing the tremendous opportunities that the Indian Ocean region offers by strengthening partnerships.

"We are committed to strengthening our partnerships across the Indian Ocean, addressing emerging challenges, and embracing the tremendous opportunities this region offers," said Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain today.

The multiple challenges and other geo-economic and geo-strategic factors require increased cooperation among the States, he said.

Hossain made the remarks while speaking at the plenary session titled "Strengthening Maritime Supply Chains: Overcoming Disruptions and Enhancing Resilience" as part of the 8th Indian Ocean Conference (IOC)-2025 in Muscat, Oman.

Sheikh Humaid Al Maani, Head of the Diplomatic Academy, MoFA, Oman chaired the session.

The foreign adviser said the Indian Ocean region is a crucial strategic area that links the Asia-Pacific and African regions, with profound economic, political and security significance.

The conference provided a platform for participants to engage in "constructive discussions, share ideas, exchange knowledge, identify actionable solutions, and build meaningful partnerships and cooperation" in the region.

"We look forward to working together to ensure a brighter, more prosperous future for all nations of the Indian Ocean and beyond," Adviser Touhid said.

As a littoral state, he said, Bangladesh has long been a centre of maritime activities and it actively participates in various regional platforms, including the Indian Ocean Rim Association and the International Seabed Authority.

The 8th Indian Ocean Conference is being held under the theme "Voyage of New Horizons of Maritime Partnership."

He said Bangladesh places strong importance on maritime cooperation for facilitating the efficient movement of goods, services and people and for advancing food security, energy security, water cooperation, disaster risk reduction and providing fair access to global public goods. Bangladesh advocates for "shared prosperity" through "shared responsibility".

Maritime transport is the main artery of global trade and maritime supply chains remain the backbone of the global economy, he added.

He said eighty percent of global trade by volume, and over seventy percent by value, is transported by sea and the Indian Ocean, the world's third-largest body of water, plays a crucial role in this global trade.

Approximately 80 percent of the world's seaborne oil trade transits through the strategic choke points of the Indian Ocean, making it a vital link between the East and the West.

"Countries depend on the Indian Ocean for the movement of goods through maritime trade routes, safeguarding their economic and energy interests. However, the sector is facing multifaceted challenges that endanger the efficiency, reliability, resilience and sustainability of maritime supply chains," he said.

Maritime supply chain is vulnerable to many challenges like port congestion, capacity limitations, regulatory, operational and administrative issues, cyberattacks, piracy, and geopolitical tensions, which can disrupt the efficiency of maritime supply chains.

"We must also remember that the oceans are not only a driving force for global economic growth but also a vital source of food security," Hossain said.

The oceans are facing growing pressures from population growth, global competition for resources, rising food demand, water scarcity, maritime security threats, climate change, biodiversity loss and marine pollution.

"We need to take appropriate actions to tackle the maritime security threats of piracy, armed robbery, human trafficking, illegal arms trade, and illegal and unregulated fishing, among others. We need to address regulatory and administrative issues," said the foreign adviser.

The global economy, food security, and energy supplies are at increasing risk due to vulnerabilities at key maritime routes, he noted.

"We must take measures to address vulnerabilities and enhance resilience," he said

Strengthening maritime supply chains involves a holistic approach combining technology, infrastructure improvements, strategic planning, risk management strategies and cross-border collaboration.

"We need to facilitate maritime connectivity, reduce the trade barriers," he said, adding that they also need to consider liberalisation of the visa regime, particularly easing visas and other administrative processes for the seafarers, ensuring facilities for them, as their roles are crucial in maintaining the maritime supply chain.

He said the Indian Ocean has historically been a region of great collaboration.

"The benefits of multilateral cooperation in maritime issues are likely to increase over time," Touhid said, adding that to ensure a resilient and improved shared future, it is essential for the countries in the Indian Ocean region to explore opportunities for mutual collaboration across all possible areas.

Each coastal nation should ensure that growth and prosperity in the Indian Ocean region, as well as the surrounding seas and bays, are built on mutual trust, respect.

All nations should understand the idea of equal interests, as all littoral states collaborate to develop together, he added.

"We also must prioritise conservation and the sustainable use of ocean and coastal resources to ensure that the use of these resources does not contribute to the decline in the health of oceanic and coastal environments," the foreign adviser said.​

He has not mentioned the name of any nation. No meaningful IOR partnership is possible without India being pivot to that partnership. However, because of domestic reasons, he seems to have refrained from taking the name of India.

 

[Krishna with Flute]

But the two nations cannot be on the same boat without resolving key bilateral issues. Md Shariful Islam identifies three key obstacles to sustainable relations between the two nations: water-sharing, border killings, and trade imbalances.

1) Water Sharing is a genuine concern. 2)Border killing is inevitable looking at smuggling and transborder crime. If BD cooperates and checks the animal smuggling and other transborder crime, it can be minimized.
3)Trade imbalance is inevitable. unless BD has something to offer to India which India requires, how can that be reduced. India is facing same issue with China. China needs lees from India but India need lot more from China. As a result, trade imbalance is growing. The only solution to problem is India substituting the Chinese goods which is imported. Same is true with BD. How can trade balance be checked unless BD has something to offer to India which India needs and not produced in India. In best case scenario, it can be some minerals. If BD has minerals, trade deficit can be narrowed. There doesn't seem to be any other possibility.

 

[Bilal9]

Bilateral relations between Bangladesh & India have hit a seriously low level in the last 6 months, intensified in no small measure by India’s decision to provide refuge to Bangladesh’s ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Ismail Ali considers the fractious atmosphere, especially in mainstream and social media, and asks whether it is in the interest of either country to sustain hostile relations?

In the 4th century BC, the Indian philosopher Chanakya famously said:

Every neighbouring state is an enemy, and the enemy’s enemy is a friend.

While it is unclear whether India views Bangladesh as an enemy state, anti-India sentiment is currently widespread in Bangladesh. Despite the many long-standing unresolved bilateral issues between the two countries, India’s interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs has drawn sharp criticism.

Many Bangladeshis believe that India played a pivotal role in bringing former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to power in 2007 and has supported her authoritarian rule ever since. Observers in Dhaka accuse New Delhi of using its influence on the international stage to shield her brutal regime from scrutiny over its appalling human rights record, including the imprisonment, torture and execution of opposition supporters — enabling Hasina to crush Bangladesh’s democracy. Until her final hour — when she fled to India on 5 August 2024 — New Delhi reportedly pressured Washington to soften its stance on her oppressive rule.

Former Indian President Pranab Mukherjee (in The Coalition Years, 1996-2012, 2017) and former Indian High Commissioner in Bangladesh Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty (in Transformation: Emergence of Bangladesh and Evolution of India-Bangladesh Ties, 2024) — two influential Indian figures with deep involvement in Bangladesh’s affairs — openly acknowledge New Delhi’s longstanding authority in shaping Bangladesh’s political landscape.

Amid these developments, a self-respecting Bangladeshi will consider boycotting India. On 7 August, the Financial Times ran the following headline: ‘India’s Bangladesh bet backfires spectacularly after Sheikh Hasina is ousted.’ Shafqat Munir, Senior Fellow at the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies, remarked, ‘There is a lot of angst in New Delhi right now about what shape the incoming Bangladesh’s government will take.’

*

However, maintaining a close relationship founded on mutual respect is crucial for the long-term peace, prosperity and economic development of both India and Bangladesh. The two countries are tied by deep-rooted commonalities — civilisational and cultural ties, shared languages, economic connections, and a rich heritage in music, literature and the arts. With 4,000-kilometres of shared borders, and confronted with significant challenges including climate change, water management and terrorism, Chief Adviser of the Interim Government Muhammad Yunus emphasises the importance of fostering a strong tie with India, telling the FT ‘We are neighbours and we need each other.’

India is a rising power of 1.4 billion people and a US$3.5 trillion economy. Martin Wolf, Chief Economic Commentator of the FT, argues that by the middle of this century, it would be surprising if India — then with a projected population of 1.7–1.8 billion people — does not emerge as a superpower. Thus, the West has increasingly aligned their interests with India. The European Union and the United Kingdom now prioritises India as atop trade partner, and many Western corporations view India as a major potential market. Moreover, amid rising geo-political tensions in South Asia, the United States engages with India as a strategic partner to counter China’s influence in the region.

*

Changing global power dynamics and India’s economic future offers Bangladesh a unique opportunity to benefit from regional prosperity — if the relationship is managed strategically. In Europe, for instance, it was not only France and Germany that became wealthy; the entire continent collectively prospered. In contrast, most African countries have remained poor, demonstrating the opposite trend. Supporting this perspective — Tim Marshall in Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps that Tell You Everything You Need to Know About Global Politics (2015), Paul Colliers in The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can be Done About It (2008), and Daron Açemoglu and James A. Robinson in Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty (2013) — argue that proximity to a thriving nation promote economic growth. Likewise, a successful Bangladesh is more likely to be a strong ally of India than a failing one, as Vinod Khosla argues, insisting that India should support Bangladesh’s Interim Government.

The interdependence between Bangladesh and India is evident variously. Bangladesh urgently requires a more cooperative attitude from India to address the severe impact of climate change — most notably from rising sea levels — which threaten its coastal regions. Bangladesh can also benefit from India’s support in areas like electricity and critical infrastructure projects. Easing tariffs and removing barriers to Bangladeshi exports would significantly contribute to the latter’s economic growth.

India, in turn, relies on Bangladesh for connecting and stabilising its Seven Sisters states in the north-east, which have long struggled with isolation and insurgencies. The access to transformation routes through Bangladesh offers India an efficient and cost-effective means to move goods and materials to these regions, underscoring Bangladesh’s crucial role in internal cohesion and regional stability.

But the two nations cannot be on the same boat without resolving key bilateral issues. Md Shariful Islam identifies three key obstacles to sustainable relations between the two nations: water-sharing, border killings, and trade imbalances. During Sheikh Hasina’s second tenure as Prime Minister (2009–2024), progress has been made in areas such as visa simplification and the resolution of land and maritime boundary discord. However, longstanding disagreement over water-sharing remains unresolved. Bangladesh shares 50 rivers with India, including the vital Ganges and Brahmaputra. Cooperation on water-sharing and joint river management is important for agriculture, flood control and addressing climate change. Additionally, India’s Border Security Force’s so-called ‘Shoot-to-kill’ policy at the Indo-Bangladesh border is a serious concern, as pointed out by Human Rights Watch.

India’s approach to Bangladesh reflects an immature foreign policy unable to withstand regime changes. By aligning closely with one person (Sheikh Hasina) rather than fostering a broader relationship with the people of the country and by encouraging anti-Bangladesh propaganda, India exposes a shortsightedness that undermines its regional strategy, particularly the countering of China’s growing influence. A recent report by the International Crisis Group underscores this concern, urging India to ‘repair its fragile relations with Bangladesh’.

Dhaka and New Delhi must adopt forward-looking approaches rather than engaging in reactionary politics. Both nations should recognise that it is not only their histories that are intertwined, but more importantly, their futures. Collective efforts grounded in shared interests will foster economic prosperity and ensure peaceful coexistence, thereby proving Chanakya’s narrative as out-of-date.

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent the views of the ‘South Asia @ LSE’ blog, the LSE South Asia Centre or the London School of Economics and Political Science. Please click here for our Comments Policy.

This blogpost may not be reposted by anyone without prior written consent of LSE South Asia Centre; please e-mail southasia@lse.ac.uk for permission.

Banner image © Austin Curtis, ‘Ferrymen, Buriganga River’, 2024, Unsplash.