[🇧🇩] Insurgencies in Myanmar. Implications for Bangladesh

[Saif]

Myanmar junta chief confirms year-end election plan

Myanmar’s junta chief said the country plans to hold elections in December and January, state media reported Thursday, pressing ahead with polls denounced as a sham by international monitors...

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Myanmar junta chief confirms year-end election plan
Agence France-Presse . Yangon 27 June, 2025, 00:17

Myanmar’s junta chief said the country plans to hold elections in December and January, state media reported Thursday, pressing ahead with polls denounced as a sham by international monitors.

The military deposed Myanmar’s civilian government in a 2021 coup which sparked a many-sided civil war, but has promoted its election plans as a pathway to peace.

With members of the former government locked away, opposition groups set to boycott the vote and huge tracts of the country controlled by anti-junta rebels, observers say a fair poll is impossible.

State newspaper The Global New Light of Myanmar said junta chief Min Aung Hlaing, speaking at a conference in the capital Naypyidaw on Wednesday, ‘pledged that the election will be held in December this year and January next year’.

It is not clear whether the junta plans to hold the election in phases — a potential sign it would struggle to guarantee security on a single nationwide polling day — or whether the timetable includes a campaign period.

On Wednesday, the United Nations’ special rapporteur on the rights situation in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, said the junta is ‘trying to create this mirage of an election exercise that will create a legitimate civilian government’.

‘You cannot have an election when you imprison and torture and execute your opponents, when it is illegal to report the truth as a journalist, when it’s illegal to speak out and criticise the junta,’ he told reporters in Geneva.

Junta forces have suffered stinging territorial losses to pro-democracy guerrillas and powerful ethnic armed organisations in recent months.

Military backing from China and Russia is letting it stave off defeat, analysts say, but huge areas of the country are set to be beyond the reach of any junta-organised democratic exercise.

A junta census held last year to prepare for the poll admitted it could not collect data from an estimated 19 million of the country’s 51 million people, in part because of ‘significant security constraints’.

‘We are currently making the necessary preparations to hold the elections as widely and extensively as possible,’ Min Aung Hlaing said, according to a transcript of his conference speech in The Global New Light of Myanmar.

‘Most importantly, the elections must be free and fair,’ he said.​

 

[Saif]

Rohingya repatriation at a crossroads

The international community must facilitate the repatriation of the Rohingya refugees to their homeland.

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Rohingya repatriation at a crossroads

Since the interim government took over, hundreds of thousands more Rohingya have crossed into Bangladesh. FILE PHOTO: REUTERS

As the war in the Middle East continues and escalates unabated, it is time to reflect on the potential fallout from festering refugee problems, including the unresolved Rohingya repatriation programme.

The history of Palestine is a lesson for all. The British government and its allies decided in 1917, through the Balfour Declaration, to provide the Jewish people with a homeland by implanting them among the Arabs in Palestine. That was the catalyst for the Nakba—the ethnic cleansing of Palestine in 1948. In almost identical fashion, the military and their cohort in Myanmar pushed more than a million Rohingya into Bangladesh. Now, it is time to take a fresh look at the Rohingya crisis that has been brewing in Bangladesh and make a renewed effort to expedite their resettlement in Myanmar.

The interim government has promised to prioritise Rohingya repatriation, and Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus has repeatedly sought international help. Various advisers have visited China and held meetings to revive the Kunming Understanding, but things remain at a standstill. Since the interim government took over, hundreds of thousands more Rohingya people have crossed into Bangladesh. On the positive side, a "high-level meeting" on the situation of Rohingya Muslims and other minorities in Myanmar is scheduled for September 30 this year to be held at the UN headquarters in New York. At the urging of the CA during his visit to the UN in September 2024, the General Assembly adopted a resolution on November 13, 2024, to convene a high-level conference within this year on the Rohingya situation in Myanmar. But it is difficult to pin much hope on the outcome of this conclave.

In the meantime, there is much talk about repatriation emanating from the interim government. During a visit to Bangladesh, UN Secretary-General António Guterres visited the Rohingya camps and expressed his solidarity with the refugees. The CA, alongside Guterres, pledged to work towards a future in which Rohingya people can celebrate Eid in their homeland in Myanmar's Rakhine state next year. Given that elections in Bangladesh will be held early next year, the interim government will likely need to work on an expedited schedule to accomplish this before transferring power to the next prime minister.

It is laudable that the interim government has given repatriation of the Rohingya high priority. During his trip to London earlier this month, Dr Yunus warned that the current state of affairs is grim. He even mentioned that the plight of the Rohingya should be a reason for alarm and warned that, "if there is no hope for them, this might lead to an explosion."

I will now turn to a few ideas on the repatriation issue. In light of the current global environment, it is difficult to foresee much progress before the national elections. Hopes were raised when the interim government and the press reported that the Myanmar authorities had confirmed the eligibility of 1,80,000 Rohingya refugees for repatriation. But it is now clear that this is an illusion. In the past, one obstacle has been the unwillingness of refugees to return unless certain conditions are met. And there are other roadblocks to the process.

As noted earlier, China can—and needs to—play its part in facilitating repatriation. China is a powerful and influential patron of the military government in Naypyidaw, as well as a long-standing ally of Bangladesh. However, our diplomats have not been unable to persuade China to exercise more of its influence over Myanmar. China's approach, which could be described as "transactional," prioritises economic and strategic interests. Accordingly, its role in the Rohingya crisis has fluctuated.

Ye Myo Hein, a Chinese scholar at the Wilson Centre in Washington, DC, warned in a recent paper: "As Western interest in Myanmar has waned, China has seized the opportunity to expand its strategic footprint...It now holds considerable sway over key actors on all sides of the conflict and has systematically sidelined Western influence by alienating groups aligned with the West."

Deng Xijun, the Chinese special envoy for Asian Affairs—Beijing's point person for Myanmar—joined the junta chief Min Aung Hlaing and other international guests at the 2025 Peace Forum, which began on June 25 in Naypyidaw. Deng indicated that Myanmar may take back the Rohingya living in Cox's Bazar to their own villages in North Maungdaw and nearby locations, instead of relocating them to camps or "model villages" as previously planned.

One must remember, however, that the Chinese initiative is tied to its economic interests and investments in Rakhine. The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) is a key component of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), linking China's Yunnan Province with Myanmar's vast energy reserves, natural resources, and access to the Indian Ocean.

The end result of all this is that Bangladesh must take a long-term view and appoint highly skilled diplomats to navigate these waters and negotiate with both China and Myanmar.

Bangladesh welcomed the recent donation of food grains and other edibles for the Rohingya refugees, though it is merely a drop in the bucket. It comes at a critical time: international contributions are dwindling, and July marks the beginning of the lean season, when food shortages hit hardest. Dr Yunus, in a recent speech, alluded to this and noted that the UN food ration will soon be halved.

The takeaway from the recent flurry of activity was summed up clearly by Guterres for the world to hear. During a press encounter at the end of his trip to the camps in Cox's Bazar, he said he had heard "two clear messages: First, Rohingyas want to go back to Myanmar; and second, they want better conditions in the camps." The international community must take notice and facilitate the repatriation of the Rohingya refugees to their homeland.

Dr Abdullah Shibli is an economist and employed at a nonprofit financial intermediary in the US. He previously worked for the World Bank and Harvard University.​

 

[Saif]

Myanmar rebels rebuff junta’s cooperation appeal

Myanmar’s ruling junta on Saturday made a rare call for the armed groups it is fighting to cooperate with it ahead of a slated election, an invitation anti-coup forces swiftly rejected.

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Myanmar rebels rebuff junta’s cooperation appeal
Agence France-Presse . Bangkok, Thailand 06 July, 2025, 01:42

Myanmar’s ruling junta on Saturday made a rare call for the armed groups it is fighting to cooperate with it ahead of a slated election, an invitation anti-coup forces swiftly rejected.

The unexpected appeal comes as the junta continues to suffer major battlefield reverses to ethnic minority armed groups and pro-democracy ‘People’s Defence Forces’ that rose up to oppose its seizure of power in 2021.

‘If the armed groups... choose to legally establish themselves within the framework of the law and cooperate hand in hand with the government... the government will welcome and accept this,’ the military said in a statement published by junta media The Global New Light of Myanmar.

The National Unity Government, a body dominated by ousted lawmakers working to reverse the coup, said the junta announcement was ‘a strategy filled with deception aimed at legitimising their power-consolidating sham election and attempting to divide and weaken’ its opponents.

The military ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected civilian government in February 2021, triggering mass protests that were met with a brutal crackdown.

Civilians set up PDFs to fight back and ethnic minority armed groups—many of which have fought the military for decades—were reinvigorated, plunging the country into civil war.

Myanmar’s junta chief said last month the country plans to hold elections in December and January, pressing ahead with polls denounced as a sham by international monitors.

The junta invited armed groups to stop fighting and start peace talks in September last year after a major surprise offensive led by a trio of ethnic minority armed groups.​

 

[Egyptian]

He looks Indian

 

[Saif]

He looks Indian

He is an Indian Canadian.

 

[Saif]

1.5 lakh Rohingyas entered Bangladesh in last 18 months: UNHCR

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees on Friday called for more financial assistance from humanitarian partners as an additional 1,50,000 Rohingya people from Myanmar arrived in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar in the last 18 months.

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1.5 lakh Rohingyas entered Bangladesh in last 18 months: UNHCR
Funds sought to host additional entries
Staff Correspondent 11 July, 2025, 22:25

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees on Friday called for more financial assistance from humanitarian partners as an additional 1,50,000 Rohingya people from Myanmar arrived in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar in the last 18 months.

In a press release from Geneva, the UNHCR warns that unless additional funds are secured, health services across the Cox’s Bazar-based Rohinyga camps will be severely disrupted by September. Moreover, food assistance for the camp dwellers will stop by December, and education for some 2,30,000 children, including 63,000 new arrivals is at risk of being discontinued.

‘More humanitarian support is urgently required as the new arrivals are largely dependent on the solidarity of those living in the camps, overstretching severely diminished resources,’ the release said.

In Cox’s Bazar, these new arrivals join another nearly 10 lakh (one million) Rohingyas crammed into just 24 square kilometres, making the camps one of the world’s most densely populated places.

Among the new arrivals, nearly 1,21,000 have been biometrically identified by the end of June, with more believed to be residing informally in the already overcrowded camps, said the release, adding that the overwhelming majority are women and children.

Biometric identification allows humanitarian partners in Bangladesh to provide the new arrivals with basic services, including food, medical care, education and essential relief items.

The UNHCR press release mentions that the ongoing conflict, targeted violence and persecution in Myanmar’s Rakhine state continued to force thousands of Rohingyas to seek protection in Bangladesh.

The movement of Rohingyas into Bangladesh, spread over the 18 months, is the largest from Myanmar since 2017, when some 7,50,000 fled deadly violence in their native Rakhine state.​

 

[Saif]

Time world leaders started acting on Rohingya issues

THE Rohingyas, more than a million of them already sheltered in Bangladesh, may face constraints as, keeping to a release of the office of the United Nations Commissioner for Refugees, there has been a fresh influx of 150,000 Rohingyas in a year and a half. This is described as the largest after...

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Time world leaders started acting on Rohingya issues
13 July, 2025, 00:00

THE Rohingyas, more than a million of them already sheltered in Bangladesh, may face constraints as, keeping to a release of the office of the United Nations Commissioner for Refugees, there has been a fresh influx of 150,000 Rohingyas in a year and a half. This is described as the largest after the 2017 influx when three quarters of a million Rohingyas left violence and persecution in Rakhine State into Bangladesh. There are fears that health services for the Rohingyas across Cox’s Bazar camps could be severely disrupted by September. Food assistance for camp dwellers would stop by December. The World Food Programme in early March sounded the warning on the reduction in food aid for the Rohingyas citing a fund shortage as the reason for the decision. The education of some 240,000 children, including 63,000 fresh arrivals, could also be discontinued. The UNHCR office has called for more financial assistance from humanitarian partners, noting that fresh arrivals are largely dependent on the solidarity of the Rohingyas living in the camps, putting them among the world’s most densely populated places.

The UNHCR release, which says that 121,000 of the fresh arrivals have already been biometrically registered by June, notes that the ongoing conflict, targeted violence and persecution in Rakhine State in Myanmar continue, forcing thousands, overwhelmingly women and children, to cross the border into Bangladesh seeking safety. The UNHCR office, however, fears that more of the Rohingyas could be residing informally in the overcrowded camps. When the repatriation of the Rohingyas has become uncertain, with a series of attempts having failed since 2017, and conflict, violence and persecution continue in Rakhine State, more of the Rohingyas enter Bangladesh and live in camps amidst overstretching the severely diminished resources, prompting the UNHCR office to put out the call for financial assistance from humanitarian partners. All this makes it a bad proposition for both the Rohingyas, who are left with their rights almost strangled, and the Bangladesh authorities, who are pushed into trouble in the management of the Rohingya issues because humanitarian partners appear unwilling to shell out adequate money. And, in all this, the Rohingyas sheltered in Bangladesh are left with a bleak future, with hopes for a graceful, sustainable voluntary repatriation to Rakhine State.

This appears to be happening because of the inability of Bangladesh to boldly take up the issue with bilateral, regional and international forums and the inability of world leaders, or world forums, to make the repatriation happen. It is time they acted on this and continued funding the Rohingya management until the repatriation happened.​

 

[Saif]

Political body ‘ARNC’ formed to advance Rohingya rights

The council emerged from nearly two years of strategic consultations involving leading Rohingya political figures, activists, community representatives, representatives from the camps and diaspora organisations

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Political body ‘ARNC’ formed to advance Rohingya rights

Rohingya refugees gather at roadside kitchen market, at the refugee camp in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, March 15, 2025. File photo: Reuters/Mohammad Ponir Hossain

Rohingya leaders from across the globe have officially launched a political body -- Arakan Rohingya National Council (ARNC) -- marking a major milestone in the struggle of Rohingyas for rights, recognition, and political representation.

The council emerged from nearly two years of strategic consultations involving leading Rohingya political figures, activists, community representatives, representatives from the camps and diaspora organisations.

"The ARNC stands as the most inclusive and unified platform ever formed to represent Rohingya communities, inside Myanmar, in the refugee camps and globally," said ARNC in a media statement today.

U Tun Khin has been made chairperson of the ARNC.

There are other Rohingya political bodies, but this is the most unified and inclusive one, Nay San Lwin, a co-chair of the ARNC board of chairpersons, told The Daily Star.

"These quiet but determined efforts took place across several countries. The goal was to overcome decades of division and fragmentation and establish a unified political voice capable of advancing the collective aspirations of the Rohingya people. This vision has now become a reality," the statement said.

The ARNC brings together a broad coalition of Rohingya stakeholders, including representatives from inside Myanmar, the majority of the leaders from refugee camps, and the majority of members of the global diaspora.

It consists of 40 Central Executive Committee (CEC) members and 60 Central Committee (CC) members, ensuring broad-based participation, coordination, and grassroots legitimacy. Delegates hail from nearly every township of Arakan, reinforcing the Council's representative strength.

"The council is committed to continuously enlarging its executive bodies and expanding its outreach to ensure greater inclusion, cooperation and collaboration across the Rohingya community."

ARNC says its formation responds to decades of systematic exclusion, persecution, and efforts to erase Rohingya identity. These injustices culminated in the genocide of 2017, perpetrated by the Burmese military regime and aided by extremist elements.

Following the atrocities, some 750,000 Rohingya took shelter in Bangladesh.

The statement said today, the Arakan Army (AA) has seized control of much of Arakan and continued these brutal practices, displacing and targeting Rohingya civilians through widespread violence, mass killings, and destruction.

Last year, the AA burned large parts of Buthidaung town, looted Rohingya homes, and destroyed dozens of villages in both Buthidaung and Maungdaw, the ARNC said.

Reports confirm that Rohingya civilians are being extorted, displaced, and stripped of all property. Nearly 150,000 have fled to Bangladesh, and the AA is estimated to have killed more than 2,500 Rohingya since seizing control.

Those who remain alive live in fear without food, safety and freedom, the ARNC said.

"What is unfolding in Arakan State under the Arakan Army is nothing short of a calculated and systematic genocide," the ARNC said.

It is expected to serve as the unified political voice of the Rohingya, reclaim and protect the Rohingya's indigenous identity and rightful citizenship in Arakan State, advocate for the just return of the Rohingya and also engage in dialogue on the future federal structure of Myanmar with all stakeholders.

ARNC would also represent the Rohingya in international forums such as the UN, OIC, ASEAN, European Union and others.

The Global Rohingya Coordination Council is set to initiate an inclusive outreach campaign to connect with those committed to Rohingya unity and justice.​

 

[Saif]

Myanmar junta offers cash rewards to anti-coup defectors

Myanmar’s junta said Friday it is offering cash rewards to fighters willing to desert armed groups defying its rule and ‘return to the legal fold’ ahead of a slated election.

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Myanmar junta offers cash rewards to anti-coup defectors
Agence France-Presse . Yangon 19 July, 2025, 03:49

Myanmar’s junta said Friday it is offering cash rewards to fighters willing to desert armed groups defying its rule and ‘return to the legal fold’ ahead of a slated election.

The Southeast Asian country has been consumed by civil war since a 2021 coup, with the embattled junta facing an array of pro-democracy guerillas and ethnic armed rebels.

After suffering major battlefield reverses, the military has touted elections around the end of the year as a pathway to peace — plans denounced as a sham by opposition groups and international monitors.

State media The Global New Light of Myanmar said Friday ‘individuals who returned to the legal fold with arms and ammunition are being offered specific cash rewards’.

The junta mouthpiece did not specify how much cash it is offering, but said 14 anti-coup fighters had surrendered since it issued a statement pledging to ‘welcome’ defectors two weeks ago.

‘These individuals chose to abandon the path of armed struggle due to their desire to live peacefully within the framework of the law,’ the newspaper said.

The surrendered fighters included 12 men and two women, it added.

Nine were members of ethnic armed groups, while five were from the pro-democracy ‘People’s Defence Forces’ — formed after the military ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected civilian government four years ago.

The junta’s offer of a gilded olive branch matches a tactic used by its opponents — who have previously tried to tempt military deserters with cash rewards.

The ‘National Unity Government’, a self-proclaimed administration in exile dominated by ousted lawmakers, has called the junta’s call for cooperation ‘a strategy filled with deception aimed at legitimising their power-consolidating sham election’.​

 

[Saif]

Myanmar’s junta chief makes 1st public appearance

Myanmar’s junta chief on Saturday attended annual commemorations for the country’s assassinated independence hero for the first time since the military seized power more than four years ago...

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Myanmar’s junta chief makes 1st public appearance
Agence France-Presse . Yangon, Myanmar 19 July, 2025, 22:36

Myanmar’s junta chief on Saturday attended annual commemorations for the country’s assassinated independence hero for the first time since the military seized power more than four years ago.

Known affectionately as ‘Bogyoke’ [General], Aung San led Myanmar’s battle for independence from Britain but was gunned down in July 1947, just months before his dream was finally realised.

His daughter Aung San Suu Kyi—who was two at the time of his death—became a democracy figurehead, Nobel laureate, and nemesis of the military.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing attended the wreath-laying ceremony Saturday at the Martyrs’ Mausoleum in Yangon, the former capital, footage broadcast by state media MRTV showed.

He was joined at the monument next to the famous Shwedagon Pagoda by other top military generals commemorating Aung San’s killing.

It is the first time Min Aung Hlaing has attended the event since he took power in 2021, and comes as his military fights anti-coup forces around the country and prepares to hold an election that has been criticised by international monitors.

Born in 1915 under British colonial rule, Aung San became leader of nationalist fighters in what was then Burma—making him the founder of Myanmar’s military.

He remains a deeply revered figure and a core factor behind his daughter’s enduring popularity.

She has been detained since the coup and spent her 80th birthday last month—and Saturday’s remembrance of her father’s killing—in junta detention serving a raft of lengthy sentences.​