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[🇧🇩] New Government (BNP) in Bangladesh After the Polls

[🇧🇩] New Government (BNP) in Bangladesh After the Polls
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G Bangladesh Defense

The likely PM’s first crucial challenge

Choose cabinet with utmost care, for it may determine success or failure


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VISUAL: ANWAR SOHEL

Hearty congratulations to the BNP as a party and to its leader, Tarique Rahman, for a magnificent win. This is not just the win of a political party in an election. It is the taking up of political power at a crucial moment in Bangladesh’s history. We have had successes but also significant failures, the most devastating of which was destroying institutions and not allowing them to function independently and professionally. Sadly, this has become part of our political culture.

The ruling parties of the past always tried to dominate every branch of government, not for the sake of the country but for the party and mostly for personal gains. Thus, as they got richer, the common people got poorer, resulting in the most cruel and destructive rich-poor gap in Bangladesh today. The politicisation of the administration and the budgeting process, among many others, is so deeply entrenched that the prime minister-in-waiting will find it most difficult to challenge. In this effort, his own party is likely to be his biggest obstacle. Many leaders from all tiers will plead and ask for rewards, citing their loyalty to the party for the last 17-18 years, despite suffering, the destruction of their businesses and financial losses. Although such an argument is both real and emotional, giving in to this will be the beginning of corruption and misgovernance, which have plagued most of our past governments.

People will not accept it, and neither will the independent media. The ruling party must also remember that the opposition will be quite powerful—77 members—and it will use, as it should and must, every parliamentary procedure to hold the government accountable and expose even the slightest sign of corruption. Given what he said so far, Tarique Rahman will most likely not allow it. But he will find it most challenging to resist. And resist he must.

To win this struggle, Tarique Rahman will have to select the right cabinet. Of course, loyalty and service to the party will be important factors, but they shouldn’t be the deciding ones. Rather, honesty, integrity and efficiency should be given priority. The new cabinet must be highly competent, modern, decisive, and management savvy; the last quality is something we always under-rate.

Tarique Rahman may already have made his choices for the cabinet. However, we would like to suggest that he takes a little more time in finalising his team. He may take an immediate oath—as soon as the process permits—with a small cabinet consisting of the best ones and those he has already decided upon. As for the rest, he should take his time, which will give our prospective prime minister a valuable opportunity to fine-tune his final selection. This is vital because the new government has an enormous task at hand. Bangladesh is at a critical phase of development. With broken institutions, a high level of corruption and widespread inefficiency, the incoming cabinet will have to play a far more effective and insightful role than usual.

There is also intense partisanship in bureaucracy, various administrative branches, law enforcement agencies, etc. Such a phenomenon has a long past and getting rid of it quickly will be almost impossible. But Tarique Rahman’s government may have an advantage. His declaration that “I have a plan,” one which he made public during the presentation of BNP’s manifesto, gives us the confidence that the new BNP government will consist of “doers and not talkers.” People who will work closely with him are already known to him; they have been tested by him and on whom he has faith. That’s excellent. But he must remember, however closely he knows them, they must be competent enough to implement the plan they helped him formulate. In Bangladesh, a “plan” and its “implementation” belong to two different worlds. This is very important to remember, otherwise the risk of failure multiplies manifold.

In my view, an underlying reason for the interim government’s miserable failure in terms of good governance was Prof Yunus’s wrong choices of his cabinet, except perhaps for a select few. He made two blunders: one, choosing the wrong team and the other, not reshuffling it. In fact, he never held them responsible for their performance. Why he just allowed them to drag his reputation down to the ground is something only he can tell. However, his contribution to an excellent election will be gratefully remembered by the nation.

Perhaps it is a bit premature, but the incoming prime minister must remember that reshuffling a cabinet is no sign of weakness or admission of fault. To ensure better performance, a prime minister must always be open to changing members of his cabinet. On the other hand, the prospect of a reshuffle keeps ministers on their toes and ensures better and honest performance.

Of the three factors that should determine the choice of the cabinet—loyalty, honesty, and efficiency—only the first played any role in the past.

After the loyalty factor comes honesty. Fighting corruption has to start at the very top, which we hope will be ensured. Then comes the question of the integrity of the ministers. On this score, the new government will be closely monitored and the slightest deviation will hurt the government badly. However, the sternest message from the prime minister-in-waiting should be zero tolerance on corruption and the harshest punishment should be meted out if it occurs. Lee Kuan Yew, the former leader of Singapore, should serve as a model, not in terms of citizens’ freedom but in terms of honest and efficient governance.

Third comes the question of competence. A minister in a modern government needs to be far more knowledgeable, efficient and decisive than in earlier times. Political acumen is necessary, but it is far from sufficient in today’s world. He or she has to be open to diverse views and ideas that contest practice and be modest enough to admit mistakes and quickly correct the course. A minister needs to be like a CEO of a company with the party manifesto as his or her “mission and vision.” A modern minister needs to be well-versed in management, which in today’s world is a science and an ever-evolving one. Again, the Lee Kuan Yew-led Singapore government is a model to learn from with its globally recognised success mainly springing from competent management. This is where we fail most of the time, as we do not give sufficient importance to it.

There are veteran BNP leaders who will have to be rewarded for their lifelong role in the party, especially during Sheikh Hasina’s oppressive rule. But luckily for Tarique Rahman, there are only a handful of them. So, in the case of a large number of ministries, the party leader can appoint young, committed, energetic, competent, and academically qualified individuals with modern mindsets as ministers. The danger here is that many such young and qualified individuals may not be connected with the people and well-versed in the realities of Bangladesh. We have seen in the past that scholars who return to serve the country from abroad exhibit an inner arrogance of “know-it-all” that prevents them from appreciating local scholars and experts. This, thereby, creates a destructive rift that prevents the much-needed collaboration between global scholars and local academicians, both of whom need to learn from each other.

As Tarique Rahman declared, “I have a plan,” we assume he also has a clear idea of how to implement it and with whom to do so. Here is where we want to sound some alert bells. When he was planning, he was the thinker. Now that people of Bangladesh have given him power, he is now the “implementer,” the main one at that. There is an ocean-wide difference between these two realities. How should he transform into his new role? First, as the unchallenged leader he has to resist all temptation and be truly modest. This is very challenging. In my mind’s eye, I can see the type of adulation and praise that has already been showered on him and which is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Even with the strongest determination to resist all these, it will prove to be highly challenging. We wish him, most sincerely, genuine success here. He must constantly remember that there is almost no “check” on him in terms of power. This is a very dangerous place to be in. His senior political colleagues could play a restraining role, but our political culture neither permits nor encourages it. He and his family are the only “check” that can work as some sort of restraint to his literally unlimited power. And, of course, the independent and ethical media can also play an effective role, but only if he allows them a free play without prejudice—to which he has committed—and takes them seriously.

In everything the new government does, the election slogan “Bangladesh First” should play a pivotal role. As each of the BNP leaders become ministers, they must take to heart the fact that the moment they take the oath of office, they transform themselves from BNP leaders to “people’s” leaders. They no longer represent only those who voted for them but also those who voted against them— supporters of Jamaat-e-Islami, National Citizen Party, Islami Andolon Bangladesh, as well as every other candidate who may have won or lost. If Tarique Rahman can put into his every action his party’s slogan “Bangladesh first,” meaning Bangladesh before personal interest and Bangladesh before party interest, and if he can ingrain in the mind of every cabinet member that, once in government, they must treat every citizen equally—something he asserted in his press conference yesterday—then he will be able to ensure the success of his government. Nothing else can.

Mahfuz Anam is editor and publisher of The Daily Star.​
 
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Economic priorities for the new government

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Mamun Rashid

The new government takes office at a time when Bangladesh’s banking sector is adrift after years of widespread plunder. The country is burdened with debt. The treasury is short of funds. Revenue collection is weak. Factories are issuing closure notices. High interest rates are stifling investment.

Employment remains stagnant. Citizens are struggling with high inflation. Small and large businesses alike feel neglected and deprived. Over the past year and a half, the business community has reportedly been among the hardest hit. Confidence drained away, and many pulled back from investment and expansion. As a result, the wheels of the economy have not turned at the desired pace. Many were waiting for the return of a political government to restore confidence and allow them to refocus on enterprise and investment.

There is a widespread belief that the new government will prioritise restarting the engine of the economy by rebuilding business confidence, meeting entrepreneurs, consulting them and urging them to join hands in national recovery.

Recent discussions with entrepreneurs across sectors reveal a shared concern. Steering the economy back to a path of sustainable growth will be the biggest challenge for the new government. The accumulated irregularities of the past decade and a half, systemic plunder in the banking sector and institutional corruption have caused severe economic haemorrhage. The government must adopt a transformative and multidimensional strategy to halt this decline.

Conventional reforms will not suffice at this critical juncture. Structural transformation of the state apparatus is required. A major step should be restructuring the banking sector. If the government ensures genuine autonomy for the central bank, discipline in loan disbursement can be restored and the culture of default loans curbed. To ease the liquidity crisis and reduce high interest rates, banks must strengthen capital adequacy and governance so that depositors and small entrepreneurs regain trust in the system.

If the government advances to the next phase of digitalisation, ensuring a paperless economy and full automation, the cost of starting and operating businesses could fall significantly. To attract foreign investors, legal safeguards and rational tax incentives are essential. It is equally important to ensure an uninterrupted energy supply for industrialisation, while reducing import dependence through domestic energy exploration.

The government needs to ensure a competitive market environment where small and medium enterprises can compete fairly with larger firms. If supply increases, prices are more likely to stabilise. Greater transparency in state-owned enterprises and wider use of technology to reduce middlemen dominance in supply chains could also help.

Bangladesh’s tax-to-GDP ratio remains among the lowest in South Asia. To raise revenue, many suggest expanding the tax net rather than increasing tax rates. At the same time, strict oversight of mega-project spending amid allegations of waste and corruption, along with expenditure rationalisation, could reduce the budget deficit.

A government committed to accountability and regular dialogue with business leaders, and able to offer swift solutions to real problems, could quickly dispel the cloud of mistrust and set Bangladesh on a path towards stability.

An economic recovery “crash programme” should be prioritised. The greatest emphasis must be placed on tackling unemployment, inflation, energy shortages, foreign currency liquidity constraints and improving the business environment.

The new government should also curb manoeuvring and manipulation in the capital market and ensure credible governance. The tax collection system should be fully digitalised and automated to create a genuinely business-friendly regime. To address post-LDC graduation challenges, export diversification is essential. If special export incentives are extended to sectors such as IT and software, leather and leather goods, light engineering and agro processing, the export basket could expand. The government should set out and begin implementing an Emergency Economic Recovery Roadmap within its first 100 days.

The writer is an economic analyst​
 
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