[🇧🇩] Opportunities and Challenges for Bangladesh in 2025

[Saif]

Date of Event: Jan 1, 2025 Source : https://www.thedailystar.net/business/economy/news/challenges-and-priorities-2025-3789051

Challenges and priorities for 2025

Macroeconomic management will remain a formidable challenge for Bangladesh in the coming year. Containing inflation, bolstering foreign exchange reserves and dealing with overstretched banks will be critical priorities. Many financial institutions are grappling with liquidity crises, operational inefficiencies, and weakened public confidence, necessitating decisive interventions to restore stability in the banking sector.

Despite making a commitment not to provide liquidity support to ailing banks by printing money, the central bank had to backtrack. If such a measure has to be repeated, policy credibility will be called into question, let alone the objective of tackling inflation with a contractionary monetary policy.

Prolonged inflationary pressure for more than two years now has eroded purchasing power, intensifying socioeconomic vulnerabilities. If the most recent official poverty incidence data from the BBS Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2022 acts as the benchmark, it can be estimated that, accounting for both rising price levels and nominal wage increases, nearly 7.9 million additional individuals have been pushed into poverty over the past two years. Furthermore, the size of the vulnerable population -- defined as those living above the poverty line but by no more than 25 per cent of it -- has increased by approximately 10 million.

Undoubtedly, the misgovernance of the previous regime has brought us to this dire situation, leaving people desperately seeking relief. A clear policy direction on expanding social protection support for the poor and vulnerable is still lacking.

It is with this backdrop that Ramadan will be a litmus test for the government's ability to stabilise prices effectively. While protecting the most vulnerable remains a priority, the middle class also expects robust measures to counter potential price hikes during the month of fasting for Muslims.

How to improve the supply side to complement contractionary approaches in addressing inflation remains largely a subject of discussion, with little concrete action apart from lowering import taxes on essential items. This alone cannot check prices during Ramadan.

Improving revenue mobilisation constitutes another urgent issue. Without significant progress in this area, the already limited fiscal space will shrink further, potentially jeopardising macroeconomic stabilisation efforts. Weak revenue collection, widespread corruption and persistent reform inertia have long been entrenched in fiscal management. Compounding these issues are slowing economic activities, sluggish import growth -- partly driven by the reserve crisis -- and inflation-induced reductions in purchasing power, all of which have adversely affected government revenue sources.

The preparation of the next national budget may prove to be a formidable task. Questions surrounding past GDP data and other information in national income accounting pose serious challenges to reconciling discrepancies and delivering a credible budget with clear policy directions.

There are also other fundamental budgetary challenges. Can the government avoid inflating social protection spending figures while reallocating resources to critical social sectors such as education and health? Given weak government revenue collection, how can public spending be managed without excessive reliance on borrowing from both domestic and external sources?

Under the interim government, the public expects responsible, innovative and accountable approaches to budget preparation and fiscal management. In line with the spirit of the July movement, it is imperative to link revenue collection and government expenditure to the broader goal of addressing growing inequality.

Global trade and geopolitical uncertainty are most likely to be additional external challenges. Tariff wars involving China, the US and EU are already a major concern for the world economy. The return of Donald Trump to office is likely to heighten trade conflicts, affect trade and investment flows and complicate the task of macroeconomic management. Combined with inflation and weak foreign reserves, such dynamics would further hinder Bangladesh's macroeconomic stabilisation.

So, the new year should mark the beginning of tangible and effectively implemented reform measures. Decisive action in this area is crucial to restoring public trust. Establishing reform commissions and gathering their recommendations are relatively straightforward tasks. However, the government, and as a nation, we must urgently address a far more critical question: why previous reform efforts failed and what will ensure their success this time.

The author is an economist and chairman of Research and Policy Integration for Development.​

 

[Saif]

Economy to see muted recovery in 2025

Will smaller rotis at roadside eateries return to their previous regular size next year? Will a Tk 500 note again fill up the shopping bag holding kitchen items? Or, will several lakh graduates, who have been poring over newspaper recruitment advertisements, finally get their jobs in 2025?

www.thedailystar.net

Economy to see muted recovery in 2025

Will smaller rotis at roadside eateries return to their previous regular size next year? Will a Tk 500 note again fill up the shopping bag holding kitchen items? Or, will several lakh graduates, who have been poring over newspaper recruitment advertisements, finally get their jobs in 2025?

Unfortunately, economists cannot say for sure whether 2025 will be better than the previous year, or worse than the current state.

Rather, they turn to politicians for answers about the extent of political certainty in the new year.

But why are economists unable to answer questions relating to their own field?

One reason, they say, is that the interim government's reform spirit has somewhat lost steam in the economic arena.

As political agendas now occupy a large chunk of reform efforts, economists believe the economic recovery in 2025 could be muted compared to what was expected after the political changeover in August 2024.

However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a multilateral lender overseeing reforms and subsequent corrections to the country's macroeconomic gauges since the approval of its $4.7 billion package in January 2023, sees a brighter future for Bangladesh.

"From next fiscal year [FY 2025-26], we expect everything, the growth momentum, to start transitioning, rebounding to better days Bangladesh used to have in the past," said IMF mission chief Chris Papageorgiou in the third week of December 2024.

Despite having several disagreements, both the IMF and Bangladeshi economists agree on the need for political stability to drive recovery.

But the reality differs. The latter part of 2024 saw various political parties and groups take to the streets with different demands.

Against this backdrop, Chief Adviser of the interim government Professor Muhammad Yunus hinted in a speech that the next national elections might be held at the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026, albeit after essential reforms are carried out.

Although the government has taken several reform initiatives for the economy, consolidated steps are yet to be seen, according to economists.

And, these efforts are not bearing any effective result, they said.

For instance, the central bank raised policy rates five times in 2024 to curb inflationary pressure, but there is no concrete initiative to sort out issues plaguing the kitchen market supply chain.

The Awami League government has left power, but extortion still remains a cause of rising goods costs, admitted Finance Adviser Salehuddin Ahmed. "The long-time powerful government is no longer in power, but unnecessary middlemen in the market are still there."

Therefore, raising interest rates and reducing duties on imported goods is not effectively reducing current double-digit inflation, which has been hovering above 9 percent since March 2023.

Central bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur expressed hope that the inflation rate would decrease to 7 percent by June 2025, and 5 percent by fiscal year 2025-26.

Zahid Hussain, a former lead economist of the World Bank's Dhaka office, said reducing food inflation is a key challenge, while non-food inflation has already started to decline due to the Bangladesh Bank's contractionary policy.

Inflation rose to 11.38 percent in November, the highest in four months. Food inflation soared to 13.80 percent, up from 12.66 percent a month ago.

Non-food prices edged up to 9.39 percent from 9.34 percent the previous month, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

If Boro production and other agricultural production met expectations, import activities were not disrupted, and big conglomerates did not create problems, food inflation could decrease, Hossain said.

However, there is little hope for a good macroeconomic situation in the coming year, according to the economist. "The political situation remains uncertain."

Besides, the bureaucracy is not fully functional yet. Normalcy has not returned to many institutions, even though top bosses have been changed, he said.

Hossain said there is a positive sign in the foreign exchange reserve outlook as remittances have increased following reforms in the exchange rate and controls on capital flight.

In the July-November period of FY25, remittance earnings stood at $11.13 billion, a 26.4 percent increase from $8.80 billion in the same period of the last fiscal year, according to the Bangladesh Bank.

He said that there is some relief as the current account deficit has reduced and the financial account surplus has improved due to higher exports and remittances.

"However, the overall balance still has a significant deficit, but it is expected to see some improvement in the balance of payments as the SOFR [Secured Overnight Financing Rate] has dropped."

According to Hossain, external challenges remain, as a potential increase in tariffs by the US could impact exports.

Regarding GDP growth, he said that achieving a growth rate above 3-4 percent may not be possible. If this can be achieved, it would be a good outcome.

"A political resolution, which does not necessarily indicate holding an election, could improve the GDP growth rate," said the economist.

He believes that without a political resolution, political uncertainty will drag on, creating an unfavourable environment for private investment.

Professor Selim Raihan, executive director at the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM), said uncertainty prevails in economic management. Besides, an uncertain political atmosphere and a slack law and order situation is leading to confusion among businesses.

Overall, a rapid economic recovery is uncertain as the business climate has not improved remarkably. Besides, the cost of finance has risen due to the central bank's reduction in money supply to control inflation, said Prof Raihan.

He said other measures to reduce inflation, such as kitchen market management, are not appropriate.

Meanwhile, the government's focus on economic recovery has somewhat fizzled out, with attention shifting towards political stability, even though the interim government has taken several steps to address the economy's primary crisis.

"I don't see the economy recovering soon, nor will inflation be tamed. Political priorities are taking precedence over economic ones," he added.​

 

[Saif]

Challenges galore in 2025

Maintaining political stability, keeping law and order and containing inflation will remain major challenges for the interim government in 2025, economists said.

www.newagebd.net

Challenges galore in 2025
Shakhawat Hossain 01 January, 2025, 00:30

Maintaining political stability, keeping order, containing inflation, reviving businesses major challenges

Maintaining political stability, keeping law and order and containing inflation will remain major challenges for the interim government in 2025, economists said.

Breaking oligarchs’ dominance on market, creating employment opportunities, generating more revenue and bringing back stolen assets from abroad are not less challenging for the interim government formed on August 8 after the ouster of the Awami League regime by a student-people uprising.

The outgoing year had begun with deepening political uncertainty following yet another controversial election on January 7 before the mass uprising forced Sheikh Hasina to flee to India on August 5 and complicated Dhaka’s foreign policy for New Delhi.

The interim government’s initiatives to reform the constitution, judiciary, administration, Election Commission, banking sector, health sector and media are still at the primary stage.

In the such backdrop, the massive fire at secretariat in the last week of the outgoing year increased headache for the government on the law and order situation due to alleged non-cooperation from the police and bureaucrats and weakness of the state institutions which were almost destroyed during the regime labelled as kleptocracy in the White Paper on State of the Bangladesh Economy.

While the reforms are mainly aimed at restoring democracy through a free and fair election, debates continue on the election road map with many parties demanding election without delay arguing that the reforms should be made by an elected government and many others seeking election after the reforms.

Economic challenges like containing inflation, building up reserves, disciplining the crisis-hit banking sector, generating more revenue, creating employment, enhancing private investment, attracting foreign investment and ensuring availability of primary energy, inherited mostly from the previous regime, have yet to see any major improvement over the past five months.

‘Containing inflation should be the top priority,’ former World Bank Dhaka office chief economist Zahid Hussain said, describing the hardship of the majority of people over the past two years due to the price spiral of essentials.

The country has been facing almost double-digit inflation over the past two years with the food inflation soaring to 14.63 per cent in the urban area in November.

The International Monetary Fund, which has been providing a $4.7 billion loan to Bangladesh since 2023 to tackle the economic slowdown, said that the general inflation would prevail in double digits in the remaining six months of FY25 expiring in June 2025.

The high inflation might be used as a tool to cause political instability, said Zahid Hussain, suggesting that the interim government should ensure a proper market monitoring system.

Echoing the same sentiment, former caretaker government adviser Hossain Zillur Rahman said that actions against oligarch dominating markets were imperative to discipline the supply chain.

Emphasising the improvement of the supply chain, the economist said that easing import restrictions along with building up the forex reserves could strengthen the economic recovery for the import dependent country like Bangladesh.

The import of consumer goods, capital machinery and intermediate goods recorded 13 per cent, 18 per cent and 13.99 per cent negative respectively in the July–October period, compared to the same period of FY24, according to the Bangladesh Bank’s weekly selected indicators released on December 19.

Decay in forex reserves has been reduced significantly over the past few months as the central bank under the interim government stopped selling dollars and encouraged the inter-bank exchange, economists said.

Forex reserves stood at $19.95 billion on December 18, compared with $20.6 billion in December 2023 as per the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual known as BPM 6.

The inflow of remittance increased by 26.97 per cent to $10.17 billion between July 1 and November 14 of FY25, compared to 1.29 per cent decrease during the same period of FY24, giving advantage to the central bank to maintain forex reserves.

The country’s export earnings in the July–November period in FY25 increased by 11.88 per cent to $19.93 billion compared with $17.81billion in the same period of FY24.

Calling on the interim government not to be complacent with the positive growth on export and remittance, economists said that steps should be taken to bolster the inflow of remittance further and diversify the narrow export basket dominated by readymade garment exports.

Economists also said that the interim government needed to earn extra loans from the multilateral lenders to assist the balance of payment and improved the country’s credit rating cut by Moody’s in a report in November citing heightened political risks and lower growth.

Credit ratings by leading rating agencies affect a country’s prospects for borrowing from the international capital market as well as its attractiveness for foreign investment.

Policy Exchange Bangladesh chairman M Masrur Reaz said that the foreign investors were happy with the current status of transparency of the government activities which was absent during the past regime.

They are, however, concerned with the current political uncertainty and protests in the industrial belts even after five months of the interim government, he said.

To him, it is imperative for the interim government to bring about a positive trend in imports and make the businesses confident.

The economists, however, said that the economic recovery will not be sustainable unless the falling revenue generation, an Achilles’ heel of the previous regime, was reversed.

The years-long revenue shortfall forced the government to rely on bank borrowing to meet the growing budget deficit and limit fiscal spaces which eventually turned to be fatal for the previous regime amid price hike of primary energy items and other essential commodity items.​

 

[Saif]

2025 is not merely a new year, it is a new inception

The final days of 2024 felt like the last pages of an old worn book -- a story imbued with resilience, heartbreak and the unyielding spirit of a nation that refused to bow to despair. The streets of Bangladesh, once teeming with the whispers of rebellion and the thunderous chants of change, now br

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

2025 is not merely a new year, it is a new inception
2024 was a year of awakening
BSS
Published :
Jan 01, 2025 00:42
Updated :
Jan 01, 2025 00:43

The final days of 2024 felt like the last pages of an old worn book -- a story imbued with resilience, heartbreak and the unyielding spirit of a nation that refused to bow to despair.

The streets of Bangladesh, once teeming with the whispers of rebellion and the thunderous chants of change, now breathe a quieter story -- tell the tale of a people, no longer willing to love under the shadow of unmet promises.

The streets once filled with cries of frustration, now lie still under the soft glow of streetlights. Yet, they are not empty; they hold the memory of marching feet, the resonance of voices demanding justice, and dreams though deferred, remain undying. 2024, for all its flaws and fractures, was not a year of submission; it was a year of awakening.

Transformation, as always, takes its price and the revolution exacted its toll. Families mourned their fallen, their absence echoing like hollow spaces in crowded homes. Dreams momentarily paused, livelihoods disrupted, and scars - both visible and hidden -- etched them into the fabric of the nation's soul.

Yet, amidst in mourning, there was pride. The sacrifices were not in vain; for they watered the roots of a burgeoning new era. Bangladesh though battered, stood resolute, poised on the threshold of transformation, its soil enriched with the promise of renewal.

The scars left by 2024 will not be erased but carried forward as badges of resilience. Every fracture in the old order is now fertile ground for something new -- justice where corruption once reigned, opportunity where despair had taken root, and unity where division once festered.

The responsibility of rebuilding does not rest solely on the government. The people themselves have taken ownership of their destiny. The youth, who were the heartbeat of the uprising, have stepped forward as architects of a brighter future.

2024 closes like a chapter in an epic tale -- messy, chaotic, but essential.

As 2025's first light gently brushes the horizon, it arrives like a tender reconciliation after a long estrangement. It falls upon streets that once pulsed with the fervor of protest but now lie still, awaiting the hopeful strides of builders, dreamers, doers and architects of tomorrow.

The dawn of 2025 does not merely mark a beginning; it proclaims a rebirth. It is a solemn vow that the lessons of a turbulent year will guide those entrusted with shaping the future. No longer will this nation accept mere survival; it will strive, boldly and unapologetically, for greatness.

This new Bangladesh is not without flaws; no nation is ever perfect. But it is a Bangladesh unafraid to dream audaciously, to challenge relentlessly, and to build tirelessly. It is a land where the losses of 2024 are transformed into cornerstones of justice, equity, and prosperity.

And 2025 begins not as an answer but as a question: What will we build with this chance? The people of Bangladesh, their voices unified and their spirits unyielding, hold the pen now.

As the rivers flow and the winds carry whispers of hope, the people march forward, not burdened by the weight of what was lost, but uplifted by the promise of what they have gained.

2025 is not merely a new year. It is a new inception! Bangladesh strides into its future -- a testament to the indomitable strength of its people and the enduring power of hope!​

 

[Saif]

New Year: Time to build future on sacrifices

Celebration of a New Year is at the same time the swansong of the year that was and welcoming the year that has begun. So, one would like to ask which events left significant impacts on public life in the past year. Apart from the political event of the fall of Sheikh Hasina's authoritarian regime

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

New Year: Time to build future on sacrifices
FE
Published :
Dec 31, 2024 21:44
Updated :
Dec 31, 2024 21:44

Celebration of a New Year is at the same time the swansong of the year that was and welcoming the year that has begun. So, one would like to ask which events left significant impacts on public life in the past year. Apart from the political event of the fall of Sheikh Hasina's authoritarian regime at the height of a student-led popular uprising on August 5 that jolted public life heavily, the day-to-day experience of the common people was more of the same. For there was no respite from the ever-escalating prices of basic commodities, while the ordinary consumers' woes worsened further by the double whammy of stagnant income whose real value was constantly eroding, thanks to the falling value of Bangladesh Taka (BDT) against US dollar due to volatility of the foreign exchange market.

Another macroeconomic indicator, the inflation rate, on the other hand, hovered between 9.0 per cent and 11.66 per cent in the outgoing year despite a contractionary monetary policy pursued by the central bank, the Bangladesh (BB). The foreign exchange reserves also remained under stress, while the pressure on external account continued as export performance was not enough to enhance the inflow of US dollars up to the expected level. Private investment did not pick up in the past year as import of raw materials and capital machinery for the industry was lower than usual. This production slowdown in turn negatively affected the prospects of employment generation in the country. And as the domestic demand declined due to erosion of the common consumers' purchasing power, it contributed to stultifying industrial growth. Add to it the drop in the growth of private credit as the tightening policy made fund costlier.

The banking sector crisis fuelled by the destruction of the financial sector through rampant looting of banks by Sheikh Hasina's henchmen and crony oligarchs persisted throughout the better part of the past year. Also, let us not forget about the non-performing loans (NPLs), a pernicious burden on the economy that has been holding back its growth surged further to a multi-year high at around 17 per cent of the total outstanding loan in September last year. Amid so many not-so-reassuring pieces of news, there is also the positive one of the increase in the foreign remittance inflow following the August 5's political changeover. And, amid various factors including July uprising, floods and tighter monetary policies, according to the multilateral lending agency (IMF)'s estimate, the economic growth in FY25 will be 3.8 per cent, lowest in 5 years since FY2020. At the same time, it (IMF) predicted that the annual inflation in 2025 would be around 11 per cent. However, the inflation rate might finally decline to 5 per cent in FY26, it was hoped. Against this backdrop, the primary task before the interim government that took power on August 8 following Hasina's ouster and flight to India, would be to make all-out efforts to address the persisting economic woes in 2025. Most importantly, the ordinary public, who made supreme sacrifices to replace the old oppressive order with the present one, is looking up to the incumbent interim government to address at least the issue of runaway price hike of essentials and bring it down to their relief.

The August revolution that brought the interim government would lose its relevance, if it fails to deliver. The average person is watching as so far the performance of the interim government could not make its mark. Even so, people are eagerly waiting to see the interim government succeed and celebrate the revolution.

Happy New Year.​

 

[Saif]

Why 2025 is a crucial year for Bangladesh

Let us recap some of the most critical lessons of 2024 as we look forward to 2025.

www.thedailystar.net

Why 2025 is a crucial year for Bangladesh

In 2024, we once again showed what we can achieve when we stand together, united despite our differences. FILE PHOTO: NAIMUR RAHMAN

This New Year is dramatically different from any other New Year we have celebrated. Our nation has gone through a profound transition, one that has brought with it unimaginable possibilities and extraordinary opportunities. The most remarkable part is that one of the least empowered and apparently most politically apathetic sections of the population—the youth—has become a serious political force.

What began as a student-led uprising—sparked by the injustices of an entrenched and repressive government—became the rallying cry for freedom. These young people, some of whom paid the ultimate price for their convictions, have done what seemed impossible: they have united the people, toppled a government that turned into a grotesque parody of power, and forged a path towards a new political order. Standing in the face of live ammunition, willing to sacrifice their lives, they showed a courage that will resonate in the nation's memory for generations. We cannot—and must not—forget the lives lost in this struggle, or the thousands whose bodies bear the permanent scars of their fight for justice.

Against the backdrop of such intense events that include the people's uprising led by students in July-August, and the four months that followed with the interim government taking the helm, let us recap some of the most critical lessons of 2024 as we look forward to 2025.

We are not powerless

The events of last summer were a stark reminder: we are not a powerless people. The uprising demonstrated, in the most instinctive way, that when a critical mass of people are determined, when they come together in unity, anything is possible. Change does not happen by accident, nor does it come through patience in the face of injustice. When pushed to the brink, people will rise. Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's downfall came not just because of her own moral bankruptcy or the unbridled corruption of her government and her cronies, but because she underestimated the anger of her own people. Her fate—disgraced, detested, and discarded—was sealed by her indifference to the people's suffering.

Time for political parties to evolve

As we move forward, our political parties must face a stark truth: their old ways will no longer suffice. The political culture of the past—built on patronage, fear, and opportunism—must be dismantled if democracy is to flourish in Bangladesh. The BNP, though temporarily revived after years of repression, is no exception. While figures like the Acting Chairperson Tarique Rahman or Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir have displayed a considerable maturity and political restraint, their party, and others, must look inward. They must rid themselves of the old guard's habits, including the pernicious tendency to "take power" rather than earn it. The public has no appetite for the politics of territorial control—whether it is about controlling the markets, transport unions or courtrooms. As history has shown, no regime that rules through fear and lies will ever hold true power. Once the people's fear is broken—once they recognise their own strength—no amount of repression can stop them. The last 15 and a half years of the Awami League regime bleeding the economy dry with financial corruption have made people intolerant of corruption.

Political parties must accept, moreover, the central role that students have played in this struggle. Without their courage and commitment, there would be no opportunity for political activity at all. Which is why political parties must be connected to the spirit and aspirations of these young people.

The vital role of women

Perhaps the most striking aspect of the recent uprising was the role of women. It was the young female students at Dhaka University who first became the catalysts of the movement. Later, hundreds more female students from other universities played the same role. Yet, as the movement progressed, their voices began to fade into the background. After August 5, the bold, fearless women who had led the protests found themselves sidelined, their leadership diluted. Women must reclaim their leadership roles—not just in student movements but across all political and social spheres. In a democracy, their full participation is not an option—it is essential for its survival. This must be acknowledged by all stakeholders, the interim government and political parties including those started by student leaders as well as politically influential Islamist groups.

The vulnerability of marginalised groups is real

We must acknowledge that marginalised groups and minority communities are still vulnerable. These groups face both direct and indirect violence, which erodes their sense of belonging and safety. The interim government, and society at large, must take swift action to protect these citizens, ensuring that they are seen and heard. Investigations into violence must be fair, transparent, and decisive, and the individuals responsible must be held accountable. These groups deserve equal representation, not just in the media but in our political institutions as well. No democracy can claim to be just while its most vulnerable citizens live in insecurity.

Embrace inclusivity and religious harmony

Islamist parties in the country have to accept that ours is a pluralistic society and democracy is the only way forward. They must choose inclusivity over exclusivity, dialogue over division. The language of hate—whether aimed at religious, political or ideological opponents—has no place in a democracy. The hatemongers, the "influencers" who stir unrest and target journalists, government officials or ordinary citizens, must be held accountable. To allow them to propagate violence and division is to undermine the spirit of the 2024 uprising.

Reforms: The essence of real change

Elections alone will not bring about the change we so desperately dream of. The reforms we need are systemic, rooted in institutions. The interim government's reform commissions will be handing in their reports soon, and we look forward to their recommendations, which are to be implemented through dialogue with political parties and other stakeholders. The reforms in the Election Commission, police force, judiciary, and Anti-Corruption Commission will be of special interest as these institutions must be restructured to operate independently, free from political influence. Until this happens, we cannot expect truly free and fair elections. Without reforms, democracy would be an empty shell.

Youth's power must be wielded with caution

The youth, who has so forcefully reshaped our political landscape, must now approach their newfound power with humility. They must never be susceptible to hubris. Their strength lies not in domination but in serving the people who have entrusted them with the power to bring about change. Their political actions, their strategies, and their ideologies must always reflect the collective will, and never the ego of a single generation. Youthful idealism must be tempered with wisdom, for power without responsibility can have disastrous consequences.

A grip on the economy, law and order

The economy and law and order will largely influence which way the political breeze will blow. No political transformation can survive without economic stability. As we move into the new year, the interim government must focus on ensuring that businesses, both large and small, can function without fear of disruption or uncertainty. The financial sector must be stabilised—dollar prices should be kept in check, trade must be able to flow. For the poorest among us, food inflation must be mitigated with subsidies so they don't bear the brunt of an economy in crisis. Migrant workers, who contribute to the economy with the vital remittances, must be protected from exploitation, both by unscrupulous agents and employers. The government's diplomatic missions abroad must be responsive, offering real help to those in distress.

The police force, too, must undergo a serious reform. No longer can they serve as instruments of political repression. They must be transformed into protectors of the people and guardians of public safety, not agents of a ruling party. Only through such reform will we restore faith in our justice system.

A free press is non-negotiable

A democracy cannot function without a free and independent media. In the years ahead, we must ensure that the press is not choked by political pressure or fear. It is only through a robust, fearless media that the people can remain informed and engaged. Only a free press can ensure that a government is accountable to the people.

A call for unity

In the end, survival as a nation will depend not just on political or economic reforms, but on a return to basic human decency: empathy, compassion, altruism, and honesty. We must embrace inclusivity—the strength of our nation lies in our diversity, not in our uniformity. The events of August 5 were a powerful testament to what we can achieve when we stand together, united despite our differences. As we enter 2025, let us carry that unity forward. Because, as history has shown, when we are divided, we fall. But when we are united, we are unstoppable.

Aasha Mehreen Amin is joint editor at The Daily Star.​

 

[Saif]

Moving ahead with purpose and optimism in 2025

New year brings new opportunities for Bangladesh

www.thedailystar.net

Moving ahead with purpose and optimism in 2025
New year brings new opportunities for Bangladesh

VISUAL: STAR

We welcome the new year with the belief that it will bring fresh opportunities for Bangladesh. Following the transformative events of 2024, including the historic July uprising that ousted the autocratic regime of Awami League, Bangladesh now has the chance to move towards a freer, more democratic future. While our political achievements last year were remarkable, they outpaced our economic progress. In 2025, therefore, the focus must shift significantly towards revitalising our economy.

Despite the accolades of 2024, including being named "Country of the Year" by The Economist, the challenges facing the economy cannot be overstated. Inflation, for instance, has remained above 9 percent since March 2023, despite policy tightening by the authorities, causing immense hardship for ordinary citizens. The strain on foreign exchange reserves and external accounts also persisted, as exports failed to grow enough to bolster forex inflows, even with a contraction in imports. Moreover, private investment remains lacklustre, and non-performing loans have surged to a multi-year high. Amid these challenges, there is a perception that the interim government has not prioritised the economy adequately. Without urgent and sustained efforts in this regard, it will be difficult to return to a sustainable growth trajectory.

On a brighter note, with the various reform commissions set to present their recommendations by the end of January, we expect significant legal and electoral reforms aimed at improving the country's overall governance structure. The timeline for the next general election—likely between late 2025 and early 2026—will also be a topic of extensive debate. A smooth and transparent election process could help mitigate political tensions. In this context, the formation of the consensus commission, which Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus is set to lead himself, is a promising development. Political consensus among all parties and stakeholders is vital, and an early, well-structured national dialogue should be a priority. Achieving this will likely be the interim government's greatest challenge in 2025.

If the government follows this roadmap, we urge all political parties to refrain from disruptive, agitational activities that could undermine the unity we so desperately need to move forward as a nation. The enormous sacrifices made in 2024 have opened a rare window of opportunity to build a peaceful, prosperous nation. It is now the responsibility of the interim government, political parties, and other key stakeholders to seize this moment and deliver meaningful progress.

With that said, we extend our heartfelt wishes for a happy 2025. Let us remember that the future we aspire to is only achievable through collective effort and unity.​

 

[Saif]

Year 2025: foreign relations challenges

The world has just bid farewell to 2024, a year marked by ballots and bullets. Approximately two billion people across 70 nations exercised their right to vote, a phenomenon that reflects democracy's resilience. However, the outcomes of these elections have raised concerns. Many of the governments

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

Year 2025: foreign relations challenges
Mir Mostafizur Rahaman
Published :
Jan 01, 2025 21:23
Updated :
Jan 01, 2025 21:23

The world has just bid farewell to 2024, a year marked by ballots and bullets. Approximately two billion people across 70 nations exercised their right to vote, a phenomenon that reflects democracy's resilience. However, the outcomes of these elections have raised concerns. Many of the governments elected represent a shift toward radicalism and ultra-nationalism, a development that has given rise to anxiety among liberal thinkers worldwide.

This growing trend of ultra-nationalism poses a serious threat to multilateralism, further limiting the already shrinking space for liberal discourse. Vulnerable minorities in various states are likely to face increasing hostility and marginalisation under these regimes. Coupled with this political shift, the world witnessed massive conflicts in 2024, from the escalation of war in Gaza to fresh violence in Lebanon and Syria, alongside intensified fighting in Ukraine. Closer to home, Myanmar's civil war raged on, mirroring the devastating conflicts in Sudan and other parts of Africa.

One of the most significant developments shaping the global stage is the reelection of Donald Trump as President of the United States. Returning to office after a gap of one term, Trump is set to reshape international relations with his "America First" agenda and pro-tariff policies. His administration is likely to adopt a less interventionist approach, focusing instead on domestic priorities.

This stance is already evident in Trump's pledge to end the Ukraine war, signaling a departure from the arms support provided by the previous administration.

Trump's anti-immigration policies will also have ripple effects across many countries, particularly those reliant on remittances or whose nationals make up significant immigrant populations in the United States.

On the domestic front, Bangladesh enters 2025 with a vastly altered political and diplomatic landscape. The July mass uprising that ended Sheikh Hasina's 15-year-long fascist regime has ushered in an interim government tasked with stabilising a country rife with internal and external challenges.

One of the interim government's first moves has been a comprehensive overhaul of the foreign office. Under new leadership, Bangladesh's foreign policy apparatus faces the daunting task of normalising strained relations with India. Bilateral ties deteriorated significantly after Hasina's fall, with India offering her refuge and amplifying critical narratives against the interim government. Furthermore, sections of the Indian media have circulated exaggerated reports on the treatment of Hindu minorities in Bangladesh, fuelling tensions between the two neighbours.

Nevertheless, there are signs of progress. The recent visit of India's foreign secretary to Dhaka has been seen as a breakthrough, potentially paving the way for renewed dialogue and cooperation. However, maintaining this momentum will require careful diplomacy and a willingness to address sensitive issues, including minority rights and border security, transparently and constructively.

Another pressing issue for Bangladesh is the Rohingya crisis. The takeover of Myanmar's Rakhine State by the Arakan Army has added a new layer of complexity to an already intractable problem.

Given these challenges, Bangladesh's foreign policy leadership must adopt a multi-pronged approach: balancing immediate concerns like border security and refugee management with long-term goals such as fostering regional cooperation and securing international support for resolving the Rohingya crisis.

The year 2025 promises to be a consequential one for foreign relations, both globally and for Bangladesh. The rise of radicalism, escalating conflicts, and shifting geopolitical priorities will demand astute leadership and strategic vision. Bangladesh's interim government, in particular, must navigate a delicate path-repairing strained ties with India, recalibrating its approach to the Rohingya crisis, and ensuring that the country's foreign policy aligns with national interests in a rapidly changing world.

As the world braces for another year of uncertainty, it is imperative that nations prioritise dialogue, cooperation, and the protection of vulnerable communities. The challenges ahead are daunting, but with foresight and commitment, they are not insurmountable. For Bangladesh and the global community, 2025 is a critical juncture-a time to reshape foreign relations for a more stable and inclusive future.​

 

[Saif]

May 2025 be a year of hope after much despairs
Hasanul Banna
Published: 01 Jan 2025, 16: 17

The ball is seen over Times Square during the 2025 New Year’s Eve celebrations on 1 January 2025 in New York City, USAAFP

We passed another year that was full of events as well as despair. At home, the year started with the 12th parliamentary election dubbed by the UK-based influential magazine Economist as a ‘farce’ and another UK-based newspaper Financial Times termed a ‘sham’ that saw Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of founder of Bangladesh Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, coming power for the fifth term, and that eventually sealed her fate for ouster.

Jobs were scarce. According to a World Bank report, 27.8 per cent of Bangladesh’s total unemployed population was the unemployed tertiary-educated youth in 2022 while about 1.2 million people might face extreme poverty in 2024 due to job losses and declining real wages. When it comes to the coveted government jobs, youths worshipped for it but recruitment systems were often marred with irregularities. Those who had power and contacts had access to jobs. Meritocracy had turned to be something to feel ashamed of.


Several months followed; the High Court suddenly reinstated a quota system in the government jobs, sparking a nationwide protest that eventually turned to a movement against the Sheikh Hasina regime from just mere movement for abolition of quota system in civil service jobs. The protesters, who were only students at the start before people from all walks of lives joined hands, were met with deadly retaliations from the government. Law enforcement agencies used lethal weapons excessively; leaders and activists of the ruling party took to streets, flexing muscles on innocent people. Even women and children were not spared.

Unprecedented events started to unfold. Nationwide crackdown, internet shutdown and curfews were imposed with killing sprees on. Finally, the protesters, who just wanted to be heard for what they had to say, placed a one-point demand – an end to the 15-year rule of Sheikh Hasina. No more, no less. Sheikh Hasina left the country on 5 August and her current whereabouts are unknown. It was a ‘Victory for students and the people, exodus for Sheikh Hasina’.

Meanwhile, in neighbouring India, a shock election result in June, what UK-based think tank Chatham House puts, was a loss for Narendra Modi of Bharatiya Janata Party, but a win for democracy. It was obviously a lesson for leaders in South Asia. By the end of the year, another next door neighbour Myanmar saw the armed insurgent group Arakan Army’s onslaught on the junta in the Rakhine State, gaining full control of the 271-kilometer (168-mile) -long border with Bangladesh, thus, posing risks to both political and diplomatic perspectives for the neighbours.

An adviser of the interim government categorically admitted it. M Sakhawat Hossain, who is also a retired brigadier general, told the political parties at a national dialogue on unity, reform and election, “We want stability in the country. We are facing a difficult situation and you (political parties) and they (the future ruling parties) will face big challenges. A very big challenge lies ahead of us. It is not just an internal issue the biggest challenge will come from outside. Our new neighbour is emerging. That is not normal it is different kind of neighbour. Arakan is a new reality now. We could not consider it for long but now we have to think about it.” So a geopolitical shake in near future is very unlikely to yield any good for us or our neighbours since countries in South Asia are reliant economically on each other.

Economy still remains uncertain. Foreign trade and investments is still recouping. The interim government, formed after the ouster of the Sheikh Hasina regime, still struggles and finds it difficult to make the economy vibrant. A White Paper that dissected the development narratives of the past Awami League regimes found a total of USD 234 billion or approximately Tk 28 trillion was siphoned off aboard between 2009 and 2023. Corrupt politicians, businessmen, financial players, middlemen and government officials moved an average of Tk 1.80 trillion during the Awami League terms. Inflation remains high. Prices are still unchecked. People find no relief to daily sufferings. But everything goes back to corruption that was rampant. Power tends to corrupt; absolute power corrupts absolutely. That was what happened throughout the Awami League tenures. Corruption by all means must be stopped.

Majority rules, minority aside, but that is not the Bangladesh that we stand for. Our constitution states “All citizens are equal before law and are entitled to equal protection of law. The State shall not discriminate against any citizen on grounds only of religion, race, caste, sex or place of birth.” We live together and do everything together regardless of all differences. However, the reality speaks otherwise sometimes. In one instance, Awami League leaders were alleged to have built a local party office on the land of a member from the Hindu community in Tahirpur upazila of Sunamganj while a number of minority people met with violence in different places of the country. Though it has been exaggerated by foreign media, specifically by Indian media that a Hindu persecution is on in Bangladesh after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, but fact-checking later found those violent incidents where minorities were victims were motivated politically expect a few occasions. All things aside, Bangladesh is country with communal harmony and its people will remain so in distance future.

In the meantime, the world's biggest iceberg is moving again after being trapped in a vortex for sometimes. Known as A23a, the a large tabular iceberg, according to BBC is 3,800 sq km (1,500 sq miles), which is more than twice the size of Greater London, and is 400m (1,312ft) thick. Scientists say the juggernaut’s breakaway from Antarctica, which happened in 1986, is a stark reminder of the potentially disastrous implications as global sea levels rise. To relate this, Bangladesh that sits on the Delta basin is seeing a faster sea-level rise than the global average of 3.42mm a year because of climate change. According to a February last year report of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD), sea level rise will jeopardise homes and livelihood in southern regions of Bangladesh and may displace nearly 900,000 people by 2050. It is time to stop speaking and start acting. Our Chief Adviser Professor Dr Muhammad Yunus is a prominent advocate for zero net carbon emissions globally. We already have an upper hand. So, it is time to unitise all possible means and tools. If we are late we will not be the first to become the victims of climate change.

On a different note, there is a persistent problem that is hardly spoken or heard of, which is an absence of a better nationwide childcare system - be it public or privately operated. Working parents, mostly the lactating mothers, must either walk through a dilemma what they must do with their babies or sometimes they even quit jobs to give time to babies. How irony it is. When we are striving to be a better nation in the world, at a same time we cannot ensure our new-born or 1-5 year children can have some caregiving while their parents, mostly mothers, are out of home for some obvious reasons. All negative aspects aside, a better day care services will obviously bring least relief to the working mothers who breastfeed their babies. Time has come to give much thought and efforts on it or else our babies will grow up amid much less care than they deserve. Do we really want our baby get any less than they deserve?

People are waiting to exercise their rights of franchise in the coming days, which had been snatched away from the people for one and a half decades. Young generations who never went to poll stations are eagerly waiting to cast ballots. An election is must but the question is when. Students ousted the past regime and now want some reforms happen fast. Political parties still maintain patience but they want it as soon as possible but with no hurry. Some reform followed by a free, fair, credible and inclusive election can be the beacon of hope for us in the coming days amid much despair that still persists.

So, we were in despair throughout 2024 except some few moments for delight like that of 5 August. To many, this might be an once-in-a-lifetime experience. To say, every ocean starts with a drop of water. So, we can hope these few delightful moments become the starter for those of us who wish 2025 become full of hope, a new time of transition and a new beginning of nation-building. Happy New Year!​

 

[Saif]

New Year, new aspirations

Wherever you go, whoever you meet, you will face one question. What is going to happen? But no one actually knows what will ultimately emerge in the days to come. This question is now relevant as the country is passing through a transition.

en.prothomalo.com

New Year, new aspirations
Rabiul Islam
Updated: 01 Jan 2025, 10: 40

Thousands of people gather at the Shaheed Minar in Dhaka on 3 August 2024 following a call by the Students Against Movement. Prothom Alo file photo

Wherever you go, whoever you meet, you will face one question. What is going to happen? But no one actually knows what will ultimately emerge in the days to come. This question is now relevant as the country is passing through a transition. After the political changeover amid the student-people's uprising on 5 August, Sheikh Hasina, who held on to power through three controversial elections, fled to India. An interim government led by Nobel Laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus has been formed on 8 August. Most of the political parties including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) have extended their support to the interim government which has already announced that they have no political ambition and they would hand over power through a free and fair election.

During the 15 and half years of ruling of Hasina-led Awami League, most of the government institutions including the judiciary, the election commission, the Anti-Corruption Commission, the banking sector, the administration, and the police have been politicised and turned dysfunctional. Amid such a situation, the interim government has initiated a move to carry out a reform. In this regard, several commissions have been formed. In the beginning, most of the political parties have supported the government's initiative on reform. However, the parties have recently demanded immediate elections. They also said the reform is a continuous process and the elected government will carry out reforms.

In the meantime, the chief adviser to the interim government Dr Muhammad Yunus has announced that the national election can be held between December 2025 and June 2026. Despite the announcement, the political parties want more specific deadline and they demand elections by 2025.

Questions also come to mind whether the major political party Awami League will join the next election or not. Since the political changeover, top leaders are on the run and some are in jail. Due to various reported misdeeds including corruption, money laundering, embezzlement and genocide carried out during the Anti-Discrimination Students' Movement, the leaders have little chance to go to the people. Despite uncertainty, the chief election commissioner said the Awami League has no bar to contest the election if the party is not banned by the government or the court.

However, while talking to local journalists in Rangpur on 22 December, the National Citizens' Committee member secretary Akhtar Hossain said Awami League will not be allowed to contest the election until justice is served for the July-August massacre.

People expect that the government will feel the pulse of the people and fulfill their expectation in the New Year.

The vibe and the expectation that were created after the political changeover, are set to diminish. The unity that was created among the political parties and student organisations are not in a good shape. Under such a circumstance, the interim government faces multiple challenges. The law and order has deteriorated while the public administration is in total chaos. The economy is in crisis. The people are hit hard by high inflation and unemployment.

Geopolitics is another major challenge for the country. The neighbouring India, which blatantly extended support to the Awami League to hold on to power for their interest, has yet not taken the political changeover in Bangladesh easily. The interim government has repeatedly said that Bangladesh wants to maintain relations with India based on mutual interest and dignity.

As the days gone by, frustration over the interim government is growing. Questions come to mind whether the interim government would be able to hold elections and hand over power to the elected government, whether the elected government will ensure the rule of law and whether the corruption will return. People from all walks of life want establishment of rule of law, good governance, corruption free society, economic emancipation and peace and tranquility. People expect that the government will feel the pulse of the people and fulfill their expectation in the New Year.​

 

[Saif]

What should be Bangladesh's strategic priorities in 2025?

The need for objectively assessing the country’s current economic realities cannot be overstated.

www.thedailystar.net

What should be Bangladesh's strategic priorities in 2025?

FILE VISUAL: REHNUMA PROSHOON

As Bangladesh steps into a new year and looks forward to confronting ongoing economic and political challenges, the need for objectively assessing the country's current economic realities cannot be overstated. The economy is experiencing several complex challenges that require a cohesive and strategic approach. Key priorities for the upcoming national budget, to be placed in June, must also be outlined while underscoring the importance of a broader reform agenda.

The source of the economic hurdles lies in the unrelenting inflationary pressure that does not seem to recede. The Bangladesh Bank has resorted to hiking interest rates on many occasions over the past two years, with little effect on containing inflation. As a result, the country has been a major failure, whereas many neighbouring countries have successfully controlled inflationary pressure. While the past regime faced allegations of either inaction or improper action in combating inflation, the present interim government has also not been able to show any success so far. The failure emanates from the lack of coordination among monetary policy, fiscal policy, and domestic market management. By now, policymakers must understand that without a synchronised approach, these measures remain fragmented and ineffective. For the interim government, containing inflation and providing solace to low-income people must be the top priority.

Exports and remittance inflows have provided some respite, with recent performances showing promise. This has led to a marginal improvement in the foreign exchange reserve position. However, the key to sustaining this momentum is addressing the macroeconomic instability, labour unrest, and tensions that have bedevilled many factories. Furthermore, private investments remained stagnant in the context of high and rising interest rates and an unfriendly business environment, with an unstable law and order situation. That has had a strangulating effect on job creation and industrial growth.

The forex market is another area of concern. While the Bangladesh Bank is signalling a shift towards a more market-driven exchange rate policy, careful timing and implementation are necessary to avoid exacerbating import costs and inflationary pressures. The transition should be well complemented with a properly communicated strategy in which businesses and consumers are duly prepared for it.

However, the absence of strong and resolute economic management from the interim government has not helped much in addressing the major economic challenges. The apparent lack of coordination in major economic issues raises concerns about the mechanism for making and implementing policies. It is high time for the interim government to show seriousness in addressing the challenges through comprehensive and effective interventions.

The White Paper Committee's recent report, submitted on December 1, sheds light on systemic corruption, illicit money transfers, cronyism, and rent-seeking activities that have plagued development projects, including megaprojects, during the previous regime. This report is a major call for the interim government to take decisive actions against these entrenched practices. By implementing key recommendations from the report, the government can begin to address the root causes of inefficiency and corruption. This includes reforms in critical economic, political, administrative, and judicial domains—reforms that must be reflected in the government's allocations and priorities.

While the mass uprising in July-August created optimism about a unified national effort towards reforms and nation-building, the reality increasingly looks beset on all sides. Political tensions and disagreements over the scope of reforms, duration of the interim government, and the timing of the next national election threaten to derail the focus on economic priorities. A confrontational political climate risks diverting attention from critical issues, including the persistent inflation that continues eroding ordinary citizens' purchasing power.

With these challenges in mind, policymakers must take actions that offer immediate economic relief and facilitate broader reform measures. They include coordinated efforts to contain inflation, to cushion the effects of inflation on the most vulnerable groups through expanded social safety nets, and to address supply-side drivers of inflation through investment in agriculture, energy, and transportation infrastructure.

At the same time, policymakers should lay a solid foundation for far-reaching reforms in key economic, political, administrative, and judicial domains. Apparently, there is some consensus on the direction of economic reforms, such as fixing the systemic inefficiency in public finance management, overhauling the taxation sector, restructuring the banking sector, and modernising trade and investment policies. However, the directions of political, administrative, and judicial reforms remain far more contentious and marked by disagreement.

The challenge is to make sure that debates and disputes on reforms in the political, administrative, and judicial domains do not weaken the momentum to move ahead with economic reforms. These disagreements, if not carefully managed, risk overshadowing or derailing efforts to address structural economic challenges that are essential for ensuring stability and growth.

It is, therefore, incumbent upon the interim government to stay focused on economic reforms with the same intensity as opening up dialogue and consensus-building on general institutional reforms. All these competing priorities require clear leadership, effective communication, and a commitment to incremental progress.

Dr Selim Raihan is professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Dhaka and executive director of South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM).​