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[🇧🇩] Opportunities and Challenges for Bangladesh in 2025

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[🇧🇩] Opportunities and Challenges for Bangladesh in 2025
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May 2025 be a year of hope after much despairs
Hasanul Banna
Published: 01 Jan 2025, 16: 17


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The ball is seen over Times Square during the 2025 New Year’s Eve celebrations on 1 January 2025 in New York City, USAAFP

We passed another year that was full of events as well as despair. At home, the year started with the 12th parliamentary election dubbed by the UK-based influential magazine Economist as a ‘farce’ and another UK-based newspaper Financial Times termed a ‘sham’ that saw Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of founder of Bangladesh Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, coming power for the fifth term, and that eventually sealed her fate for ouster.

Jobs were scarce. According to a World Bank report, 27.8 per cent of Bangladesh’s total unemployed population was the unemployed tertiary-educated youth in 2022 while about 1.2 million people might face extreme poverty in 2024 due to job losses and declining real wages. When it comes to the coveted government jobs, youths worshipped for it but recruitment systems were often marred with irregularities. Those who had power and contacts had access to jobs. Meritocracy had turned to be something to feel ashamed of.


Several months followed; the High Court suddenly reinstated a quota system in the government jobs, sparking a nationwide protest that eventually turned to a movement against the Sheikh Hasina regime from just mere movement for abolition of quota system in civil service jobs. The protesters, who were only students at the start before people from all walks of lives joined hands, were met with deadly retaliations from the government. Law enforcement agencies used lethal weapons excessively; leaders and activists of the ruling party took to streets, flexing muscles on innocent people. Even women and children were not spared.

Unprecedented events started to unfold. Nationwide crackdown, internet shutdown and curfews were imposed with killing sprees on. Finally, the protesters, who just wanted to be heard for what they had to say, placed a one-point demand – an end to the 15-year rule of Sheikh Hasina. No more, no less. Sheikh Hasina left the country on 5 August and her current whereabouts are unknown. It was a ‘Victory for students and the people, exodus for Sheikh Hasina’.

Meanwhile, in neighbouring India, a shock election result in June, what UK-based think tank Chatham House puts, was a loss for Narendra Modi of Bharatiya Janata Party, but a win for democracy. It was obviously a lesson for leaders in South Asia. By the end of the year, another next door neighbour Myanmar saw the armed insurgent group Arakan Army’s onslaught on the junta in the Rakhine State, gaining full control of the 271-kilometer (168-mile) -long border with Bangladesh, thus, posing risks to both political and diplomatic perspectives for the neighbours.

An adviser of the interim government categorically admitted it. M Sakhawat Hossain, who is also a retired brigadier general, told the political parties at a national dialogue on unity, reform and election, “We want stability in the country. We are facing a difficult situation and you (political parties) and they (the future ruling parties) will face big challenges. A very big challenge lies ahead of us. It is not just an internal issue the biggest challenge will come from outside. Our new neighbour is emerging. That is not normal it is different kind of neighbour. Arakan is a new reality now. We could not consider it for long but now we have to think about it.” So a geopolitical shake in near future is very unlikely to yield any good for us or our neighbours since countries in South Asia are reliant economically on each other.

Economy still remains uncertain. Foreign trade and investments is still recouping. The interim government, formed after the ouster of the Sheikh Hasina regime, still struggles and finds it difficult to make the economy vibrant. A White Paper that dissected the development narratives of the past Awami League regimes found a total of USD 234 billion or approximately Tk 28 trillion was siphoned off aboard between 2009 and 2023. Corrupt politicians, businessmen, financial players, middlemen and government officials moved an average of Tk 1.80 trillion during the Awami League terms. Inflation remains high. Prices are still unchecked. People find no relief to daily sufferings. But everything goes back to corruption that was rampant. Power tends to corrupt; absolute power corrupts absolutely. That was what happened throughout the Awami League tenures. Corruption by all means must be stopped.

Majority rules, minority aside, but that is not the Bangladesh that we stand for. Our constitution states “All citizens are equal before law and are entitled to equal protection of law. The State shall not discriminate against any citizen on grounds only of religion, race, caste, sex or place of birth.” We live together and do everything together regardless of all differences. However, the reality speaks otherwise sometimes. In one instance, Awami League leaders were alleged to have built a local party office on the land of a member from the Hindu community in Tahirpur upazila of Sunamganj while a number of minority people met with violence in different places of the country. Though it has been exaggerated by foreign media, specifically by Indian media that a Hindu persecution is on in Bangladesh after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, but fact-checking later found those violent incidents where minorities were victims were motivated politically expect a few occasions. All things aside, Bangladesh is country with communal harmony and its people will remain so in distance future.

In the meantime, the world's biggest iceberg is moving again after being trapped in a vortex for sometimes. Known as A23a, the a large tabular iceberg, according to BBC is 3,800 sq km (1,500 sq miles), which is more than twice the size of Greater London, and is 400m (1,312ft) thick. Scientists say the juggernaut’s breakaway from Antarctica, which happened in 1986, is a stark reminder of the potentially disastrous implications as global sea levels rise. To relate this, Bangladesh that sits on the Delta basin is seeing a faster sea-level rise than the global average of 3.42mm a year because of climate change. According to a February last year report of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD), sea level rise will jeopardise homes and livelihood in southern regions of Bangladesh and may displace nearly 900,000 people by 2050. It is time to stop speaking and start acting. Our Chief Adviser Professor Dr Muhammad Yunus is a prominent advocate for zero net carbon emissions globally. We already have an upper hand. So, it is time to unitise all possible means and tools. If we are late we will not be the first to become the victims of climate change.

On a different note, there is a persistent problem that is hardly spoken or heard of, which is an absence of a better nationwide childcare system - be it public or privately operated. Working parents, mostly the lactating mothers, must either walk through a dilemma what they must do with their babies or sometimes they even quit jobs to give time to babies. How irony it is. When we are striving to be a better nation in the world, at a same time we cannot ensure our new-born or 1-5 year children can have some caregiving while their parents, mostly mothers, are out of home for some obvious reasons. All negative aspects aside, a better day care services will obviously bring least relief to the working mothers who breastfeed their babies. Time has come to give much thought and efforts on it or else our babies will grow up amid much less care than they deserve. Do we really want our baby get any less than they deserve?

People are waiting to exercise their rights of franchise in the coming days, which had been snatched away from the people for one and a half decades. Young generations who never went to poll stations are eagerly waiting to cast ballots. An election is must but the question is when. Students ousted the past regime and now want some reforms happen fast. Political parties still maintain patience but they want it as soon as possible but with no hurry. Some reform followed by a free, fair, credible and inclusive election can be the beacon of hope for us in the coming days amid much despair that still persists.

So, we were in despair throughout 2024 except some few moments for delight like that of 5 August. To many, this might be an once-in-a-lifetime experience. To say, every ocean starts with a drop of water. So, we can hope these few delightful moments become the starter for those of us who wish 2025 become full of hope, a new time of transition and a new beginning of nation-building. Happy New Year!​
 

New Year, new aspirations
Rabiul Islam
Updated: 01 Jan 2025, 10: 40

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Thousands of people gather at the Shaheed Minar in Dhaka on 3 August 2024 following a call by the Students Against Movement. Prothom Alo file photo

Wherever you go, whoever you meet, you will face one question. What is going to happen? But no one actually knows what will ultimately emerge in the days to come. This question is now relevant as the country is passing through a transition. After the political changeover amid the student-people's uprising on 5 August, Sheikh Hasina, who held on to power through three controversial elections, fled to India. An interim government led by Nobel Laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus has been formed on 8 August. Most of the political parties including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) have extended their support to the interim government which has already announced that they have no political ambition and they would hand over power through a free and fair election.

During the 15 and half years of ruling of Hasina-led Awami League, most of the government institutions including the judiciary, the election commission, the Anti-Corruption Commission, the banking sector, the administration, and the police have been politicised and turned dysfunctional. Amid such a situation, the interim government has initiated a move to carry out a reform. In this regard, several commissions have been formed. In the beginning, most of the political parties have supported the government's initiative on reform. However, the parties have recently demanded immediate elections. They also said the reform is a continuous process and the elected government will carry out reforms.

In the meantime, the chief adviser to the interim government Dr Muhammad Yunus has announced that the national election can be held between December 2025 and June 2026. Despite the announcement, the political parties want more specific deadline and they demand elections by 2025.

Questions also come to mind whether the major political party Awami League will join the next election or not. Since the political changeover, top leaders are on the run and some are in jail. Due to various reported misdeeds including corruption, money laundering, embezzlement and genocide carried out during the Anti-Discrimination Students' Movement, the leaders have little chance to go to the people. Despite uncertainty, the chief election commissioner said the Awami League has no bar to contest the election if the party is not banned by the government or the court.

However, while talking to local journalists in Rangpur on 22 December, the National Citizens' Committee member secretary Akhtar Hossain said Awami League will not be allowed to contest the election until justice is served for the July-August massacre.

People expect that the government will feel the pulse of the people and fulfill their expectation in the New Year.

The vibe and the expectation that were created after the political changeover, are set to diminish. The unity that was created among the political parties and student organisations are not in a good shape. Under such a circumstance, the interim government faces multiple challenges. The law and order has deteriorated while the public administration is in total chaos. The economy is in crisis. The people are hit hard by high inflation and unemployment.

Geopolitics is another major challenge for the country. The neighbouring India, which blatantly extended support to the Awami League to hold on to power for their interest, has yet not taken the political changeover in Bangladesh easily. The interim government has repeatedly said that Bangladesh wants to maintain relations with India based on mutual interest and dignity.

As the days gone by, frustration over the interim government is growing. Questions come to mind whether the interim government would be able to hold elections and hand over power to the elected government, whether the elected government will ensure the rule of law and whether the corruption will return. People from all walks of life want establishment of rule of law, good governance, corruption free society, economic emancipation and peace and tranquility. People expect that the government will feel the pulse of the people and fulfill their expectation in the New Year.​
 

What should be Bangladesh's strategic priorities in 2025?

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FILE VISUAL: REHNUMA PROSHOON

As Bangladesh steps into a new year and looks forward to confronting ongoing economic and political challenges, the need for objectively assessing the country's current economic realities cannot be overstated. The economy is experiencing several complex challenges that require a cohesive and strategic approach. Key priorities for the upcoming national budget, to be placed in June, must also be outlined while underscoring the importance of a broader reform agenda.

The source of the economic hurdles lies in the unrelenting inflationary pressure that does not seem to recede. The Bangladesh Bank has resorted to hiking interest rates on many occasions over the past two years, with little effect on containing inflation. As a result, the country has been a major failure, whereas many neighbouring countries have successfully controlled inflationary pressure. While the past regime faced allegations of either inaction or improper action in combating inflation, the present interim government has also not been able to show any success so far. The failure emanates from the lack of coordination among monetary policy, fiscal policy, and domestic market management. By now, policymakers must understand that without a synchronised approach, these measures remain fragmented and ineffective. For the interim government, containing inflation and providing solace to low-income people must be the top priority.

Exports and remittance inflows have provided some respite, with recent performances showing promise. This has led to a marginal improvement in the foreign exchange reserve position. However, the key to sustaining this momentum is addressing the macroeconomic instability, labour unrest, and tensions that have bedevilled many factories. Furthermore, private investments remained stagnant in the context of high and rising interest rates and an unfriendly business environment, with an unstable law and order situation. That has had a strangulating effect on job creation and industrial growth.

The forex market is another area of concern. While the Bangladesh Bank is signalling a shift towards a more market-driven exchange rate policy, careful timing and implementation are necessary to avoid exacerbating import costs and inflationary pressures. The transition should be well complemented with a properly communicated strategy in which businesses and consumers are duly prepared for it.

However, the absence of strong and resolute economic management from the interim government has not helped much in addressing the major economic challenges. The apparent lack of coordination in major economic issues raises concerns about the mechanism for making and implementing policies. It is high time for the interim government to show seriousness in addressing the challenges through comprehensive and effective interventions.

The White Paper Committee's recent report, submitted on December 1, sheds light on systemic corruption, illicit money transfers, cronyism, and rent-seeking activities that have plagued development projects, including megaprojects, during the previous regime. This report is a major call for the interim government to take decisive actions against these entrenched practices. By implementing key recommendations from the report, the government can begin to address the root causes of inefficiency and corruption. This includes reforms in critical economic, political, administrative, and judicial domains—reforms that must be reflected in the government's allocations and priorities.

While the mass uprising in July-August created optimism about a unified national effort towards reforms and nation-building, the reality increasingly looks beset on all sides. Political tensions and disagreements over the scope of reforms, duration of the interim government, and the timing of the next national election threaten to derail the focus on economic priorities. A confrontational political climate risks diverting attention from critical issues, including the persistent inflation that continues eroding ordinary citizens' purchasing power.

With these challenges in mind, policymakers must take actions that offer immediate economic relief and facilitate broader reform measures. They include coordinated efforts to contain inflation, to cushion the effects of inflation on the most vulnerable groups through expanded social safety nets, and to address supply-side drivers of inflation through investment in agriculture, energy, and transportation infrastructure.

At the same time, policymakers should lay a solid foundation for far-reaching reforms in key economic, political, administrative, and judicial domains. Apparently, there is some consensus on the direction of economic reforms, such as fixing the systemic inefficiency in public finance management, overhauling the taxation sector, restructuring the banking sector, and modernising trade and investment policies. However, the directions of political, administrative, and judicial reforms remain far more contentious and marked by disagreement.

The challenge is to make sure that debates and disputes on reforms in the political, administrative, and judicial domains do not weaken the momentum to move ahead with economic reforms. These disagreements, if not carefully managed, risk overshadowing or derailing efforts to address structural economic challenges that are essential for ensuring stability and growth.

It is, therefore, incumbent upon the interim government to stay focused on economic reforms with the same intensity as opening up dialogue and consensus-building on general institutional reforms. All these competing priorities require clear leadership, effective communication, and a commitment to incremental progress.

Dr Selim Raihan is professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Dhaka and executive director of South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM).​
 

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