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Jun 15, 2025
From Deterrence to Desperation: Has Israel Already Lost to Iran in the War for Our Safety?
For many years, Israel had one trump card against Iran: the very threat of a large-scale military attack. Now, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has left us all exposedShare in Facebook
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Destruction in Bat Yam caused by a missile from IranCredit: Tomer Appelbaum
Eitay Mack
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Jun 15, 2025 10:02 pm IDT
Israel already lost the war against Iran when our first missile was launched.
As Israeli civilians shelter from attacks, the public is "attacked" also by propaganda from the government, the Israeli army and the Mossad about the list of nuclear facilities and Islamic Republic generals eliminated, thanks to Israel's impressive and cunning operational capabilities.
But in a few days or weeks, when the smoke clears from bombings and the intoxicating testosterone dissipates, it will become clear to the Israeli public that the Iranian threat has in fact not been resolved. Perhaps Iran's motivation to produce nuclear weapons has even increased as a result of this round of violence.
- Trumpets of victory are sounding, but its alluring melody will deceive Israelis
- Projections of thousands of dead civilians prove Israeli lives don't matter to Netanyahu
- Netanyahu is counting on Trump to finish what Israel started in Iran
As long as the Iranian regime's extremist ideology remains, an ideology that cannot be assassinated or bombed into submission, every military facility that Israel destroyed will be rebuilt and every general killed will be replaced. The only ones who can decide the nature of the regime in Iran are its citizens.
For many years, Israel had one trump card, a major source of deterrence in the struggle against Iran: the very threat of a large-scale military attack. This influenced both Iranian behavior and reactions by the international community which sought a diplomatic solution.
But now, the attack card has been played. Israel has no other cards up its sleeve. When diplomatic negotiations resume, the Iranian regime will likely arrive even stronger, bolstered by surviving what they once feared, an Israeli attack.
Of course, U.S. President Donald Trump was also relying on the threat of an Israeli offensive to pressure Iran in his administration's nuclear negotiations with the country. After Israel's attack began, Trump wrote on Truth that "with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal…Iran must make a deal." He has consistently, since his inaugural address, claimed he wants to be remembered as a peacemaker, aligning with many of his political allies domestically who oppose U.S. military involvement abroad.
For example, the popular Trump supporter, Jack Posobiec wrote on X just hours before the outbreak of war that "a direct strike on Iran right now would disastrously split the Trump coalition. Trump smartly ran against starting new wars, this is what the swing states voted for...America First!"
MAGA Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene also wrote on X, "Americans don't want to bomb Iran because the secular government of Israel says that Iran is on the verge of developing a nuclear bomb any day now. We've been told that for the past 20 years. The same story. Everyone I know is tired of U.S. intervention and regime change in foreign countries."
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Destruction in Haifa caused by a missile from IranCredit: Sharon Bukov
The Trump administration is aware of the opposition to Israel's attack from its political base and has issued a statement that the U.S. was and is not involved. But of course, this leaves Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alone, without serious backing from the U.S. as he wages what could reasonably become a prolonged war. The New York Times reported that much of Iran's nuclear program remains after Israel's opening strikes.
Therefore, despite the announcements by Israeli security establishment officials that attacks on Iran are expected to last a long time, Trump will probably work hard to put a stop to these volleys. Israel is also likely depending on a U.S. aid package to finance the war, which Israel already estimates will cost billions of shekels. It remains to be seen whether the Trump administration will be willing to help foot the bill.
Of course, none of this interests Netanyahu. From his perspective, he has fulfilled one of his key promises to his voters and admirers, and the facts are barely relevant amid his propaganda. It is Israeli taxpayers who as they run for shelter to save their lives should be asking: Have we already lost the war for our own safety?
Eitay Mack is a human rights lawyer and activist specializing in the issue of Israel's arms trade. He is based in Jerusalem.
