South Asia India's rise as a manufacturing powerhouse making China nervous as geoeconomic advantage shifts

South Asia India's rise as a manufacturing powerhouse making China nervous as geoeconomic advantage shifts
Krishna with Flute
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G  South Asia
Jiangnan said:
Don't drink Indian water! Indian water is garbage water! It is entirely composed of Escherichia coli!

worldpopulationreview.com

Water Quality by Country 2026

Data on water quality in all the world's countries, including countries with the highest water quality (safest drinking water) and countries with the worst water quality.
worldpopulationreview.com worldpopulationreview.com

View attachment 20428View attachment 20429

@Bilal9 @Saif bro. I'm glad to see Bangladesh win against India again
Click to expand...
Thanks for the link. :)

Despite virulent Indian propaganda, Bangladesh is literally a safer place to live and work compared to India.

Water quality matters to manufacturing - it is one of the primary health indicators for a productive manufacturing oriented country. People are the main factors in manufacturing, and if you can't keep your people healthy, then manufacturing will suffer.

Our open defecation is near zero compared to India, which has 60% plus of it. Hygiene is built into the popular culture unlike India. Every house (even those in villages) have a toilet.

Still - Bangladesh has a long way to go to achieve China's level of societal discipline, hygiene and living standards. A work in progress I guess.

In any case - I don't think I should criticize Indians for having only 25% parts localization in their Auto Industry, as ours in Bangladesh is a lot less. However one can say Indian market is eight times larger and they can easily make a case for way higher parts localization.

If Chinese can make 100% parts localization, and Indian auto market and population is as large as China's - what is setting India back so much?

Even if you export large numbers of cars from India, and if you make assembled cars from all Chinese parts, Chinese are keeping most of the high level value addition (for making said parts like electronics, ECUs, engine components and transmissions).

All India is doing is bolting things together, which requires very little skill. Like one of the Pakistani brothers said, this is useless tailoring or "Darzi business".
 
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Bilal9 said:
Guys - I will need to delete all out of context off-topic posts. Please do not post any further ones.
Click to expand...

If you can check dirty guy, all threads can run fine. This MF keep copy posting same post again and again. Hundreds of times, he keep posting Same picture. Kick this MF out if you want any quality discussion.
 
Last edited:
Bilal9 said:
Guys - I will need to delete all out of context off-topic posts. Please do not post any further ones.
Click to expand...

Look at even export of automobile parts. Export rose by over 22%.

India's auto exports zoom 22% in Q1 on record car shipments; Maruti grabs nearly half the pie | IBEF

India’s automobile exports rose 22% YoY in Q1 FY26 to 1.46 million units, led by record passenger vehicle shipments and robust growth in two-wheelers, commercial, and three-wheeler segments.
www.ibef.org www.ibef.org
 
Krishna with Flute said:
Look at even export of automobile parts. Export rose by over 22%.

India's auto exports zoom 22% in Q1 on record car shipments; Maruti grabs nearly half the pie | IBEF

India’s automobile exports rose 22% YoY in Q1 FY26 to 1.46 million units, led by record passenger vehicle shipments and robust growth in two-wheelers, commercial, and three-wheeler segments.
www.ibef.org www.ibef.org
Click to expand...

The prospects for 2025 does not look good following higher car sales in 2024. 2024 increase was driven by post covid pent-up demand.

India is an interesting story - Two wheelers (and even 3 wheeler autos - tuktuks) count as "Cars" in India.

Two wheelers count as 78% for all "vehicles" made in India. Actual four wheeler cars are just 17% of this number.

Here is a nice wrap-up from January 2025 (note the yellow highlighted sections).

climatedot.org

A year in review : The Indian auto sector | 2024

Read our latest insights on A year in review : The Indian auto sector | 2024
climatedot.org climatedot.org

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

A year in review : The Indian auto sector | 2024​


Mitt Siddhpura, Akhilesh Magal on E-mobility
January 17, 2025

As we close the chapter on 2024, India’s automotive sector reflects a dynamic narrative of challenges, resilience, and transformation. From post-COVID growth to a recent slowdown, shifting consumer preferences, and reduced EV subsidies, the industry reflects a mix of resilience and uncertainty.

With insights backed by data, charts, and expert analysis, we explore the journey of the auto sector from pre-pandemic highs to the uncertainties of today, and what 2025 and beyond might hold for the Indian economy’s critical pillar - the automotive industry.

Background​

India's auto sector is a cornerstone of the country’s economic growth, significantly contributing to GDP, employment generation, and attracting Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs).

Screenshot 2025-01-17 060545.png


Urbanization, rising incomes, and infrastructure development are playing a pivotal role in the demand and growth of the auto sector. Further the movement of the auto market towards cars, especially SUVs suggest that cars are an important positional good i.e. something that people derive social standing from. Additionally, the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is central to India's sustainability goals, supported by government initiatives like FAME and PLI schemes. Hence, monitoring the sector’s growth is key to understanding India's economic trajectory, global competitiveness and clean-tech innovation.

In this article, we delve into how the automotive sector has evolved over the years, focusing on its post-COVID recovery and outlook for 2025 and beyond.

Looking back | The growth journey - 2017 to 2024​

During the pre-COVID era (2017–2020), India’s automotive industry experienced steady growth, driven by consistent demand and incremental sales across segments. However, the COVID-19 outbreak (2020–21) brought unprecedented challenges. While the pandemic was a global phenomenon, India’s economy faced a sharper impact due to stricter lockdown measures and mobility restrictions. This led to production halts, supply chain disruptions, and a significant decline in consumer demand.

The industry also witnessed a notable surge in automobile prices, driven by two key factors:

  1. A global shortage of critical automobile components, particularly semiconductors.
  2. The simultaneous implementation of BS-VI emission norms, which increased production costs.
These factors collectively led to a 50% increase in Average Selling Price (ASP) of passenger vehicles from ₹7.6 lakh in FY19 to ₹11.5 lakh in FY24, prompting a shift in consumer preferences.

1753215463500.webp


Figure 1: Average Selling Price (ASP) of passenger vehicles



However, post COVID session (2021-2024) has witnessed pent-up demand, a strong recovery and rebound in sales despite the significant hike in automobile prices.

Figure 2: Vehicular category-wise sales | 2017-2024

While the industry observed a growing demand for premium and aspirational vehicles, sales of entry-level models struggled. During the first half of the FY22 compared to the same period in 2018–19, sales of passenger cars, including entry-level hatchbacks, declined by 24.7%, while utility vehicle sales surged by an impressive 111.6%. As reported in The Indian Express, cars priced above ₹10 lakh experienced a fivefold faster growth compared to those priced below ₹10 lakh.



Screenshot 2025-01-17 061553.png

This trend underscores the ongoing distress in the lower end of the auto segment, which has a cascading effect on the entry-level car market. Many consumers in this segment typically upgrade from two-wheelers, but the economic strain has limited their ability to do so. India, with a car ownership rate of just 7.5%, lags far behind other nations, reflecting its nascent automotive penetration.

Figure 3: Car ownership across various countries

1753215564409.webp


Two-wheelers (2Ws) have been the back-bone of India’s auto-sector, remaining the most preferred mode of transportation for millions. In 2024, 2Ws constituted for ~78% of all vehicular sales.

Figure 4: Vehicular sales by category | 2024

1753215888878.webp


Furthermore, 2Ws sales have shown significant progress with a double digit growth rate of 11% Year-on-Year (YoY) in 2024.

Figure 5: Two-wheeler sales | 2017-2024

However, a closer look at model-wise sales of two-wheelers reveals a notable trend similar to four-wheelers: the growing premiumization of vehicles. Between 2023 and 2024, premium two-wheelers outperformed mass-market commuter models, recording significantly higher growth rates as outlined in the figure below.

Figure 6: Two-wheeler vehicle segment growth rate FY2023-24

Moreover, while two-wheeler sales are still lower than the peak in 2019 in the pre-pandemic era, the four-wheeler sales have significantly increased by 30% in the same period.

Figure 7: Four-wheeler sales | 2017-2024

2024 | The beginning of a slowdown?​

The post-pandemic recovery of the Indian automotive industry has been a story of resilience and growth, but 2024 marks the beginning of an industry-wide slowdown after two consecutive years of strong demand. While overall vehicle sales remained subdued for most of the year, October stood out as an exception due to the alignment of three major festivals—Navratri, Dhanteras, and Diwali—in the same month.

Figure 8: Vehicular category-wise monthly sales | 2024

Uncharacteristically, December—the month typically associated with end-of-year discounts and high sales—saw a decline in demand, disrupting historical trends. According to an Economic Times report, Indian car dealers recorded a surprising 2% drop in sales in December 2024, reflecting broader economic pressures.
 
Bilal9 said:
The prospects for 2025 does not look good following higher car sales in 2024. 2024 increase was driven by post covid pent-up demand.

India is an interesting story - Two wheelers (and even 3 wheeler autos - tuktuks) count as "Cars" in India.

Two wheelers count as 78% for all "vehicles" made in India. Actual four wheeler cars are just 17% of this number.

Here is a nice wrap-up from January 2025 (note the yellow highlighted sections).

climatedot.org

A year in review : The Indian auto sector | 2024

Read our latest insights on A year in review : The Indian auto sector | 2024
climatedot.org climatedot.org

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

A year in review : The Indian auto sector | 2024​


Mitt Siddhpura, Akhilesh Magal on E-mobility
January 17, 2025

As we close the chapter on 2024, India’s automotive sector reflects a dynamic narrative of challenges, resilience, and transformation. From post-COVID growth to a recent slowdown, shifting consumer preferences, and reduced EV subsidies, the industry reflects a mix of resilience and uncertainty.

With insights backed by data, charts, and expert analysis, we explore the journey of the auto sector from pre-pandemic highs to the uncertainties of today, and what 2025 and beyond might hold for the Indian economy’s critical pillar - the automotive industry.

Background​

India's auto sector is a cornerstone of the country’s economic growth, significantly contributing to GDP, employment generation, and attracting Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs).

Screenshot 2025-01-17 060545.png


Urbanization, rising incomes, and infrastructure development are playing a pivotal role in the demand and growth of the auto sector. Further the movement of the auto market towards cars, especially SUVs suggest that cars are an important positional good i.e. something that people derive social standing from. Additionally, the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is central to India's sustainability goals, supported by government initiatives like FAME and PLI schemes. Hence, monitoring the sector’s growth is key to understanding India's economic trajectory, global competitiveness and clean-tech innovation.

In this article, we delve into how the automotive sector has evolved over the years, focusing on its post-COVID recovery and outlook for 2025 and beyond.

Looking back | The growth journey - 2017 to 2024​

During the pre-COVID era (2017–2020), India’s automotive industry experienced steady growth, driven by consistent demand and incremental sales across segments. However, the COVID-19 outbreak (2020–21) brought unprecedented challenges. While the pandemic was a global phenomenon, India’s economy faced a sharper impact due to stricter lockdown measures and mobility restrictions. This led to production halts, supply chain disruptions, and a significant decline in consumer demand.

The industry also witnessed a notable surge in automobile prices, driven by two key factors:

  1. A global shortage of critical automobile components, particularly semiconductors.
  2. The simultaneous implementation of BS-VI emission norms, which increased production costs.
These factors collectively led to a 50% increase in Average Selling Price (ASP) of passenger vehicles from ₹7.6 lakh in FY19 to ₹11.5 lakh in FY24, prompting a shift in consumer preferences.

View attachment 20430

Figure 1: Average Selling Price (ASP) of passenger vehicles



However, post COVID session (2021-2024) has witnessed pent-up demand, a strong recovery and rebound in sales despite the significant hike in automobile prices.

Figure 2: Vehicular category-wise sales | 2017-2024

While the industry observed a growing demand for premium and aspirational vehicles, sales of entry-level models struggled. During the first half of the FY22 compared to the same period in 2018–19, sales of passenger cars, including entry-level hatchbacks, declined by 24.7%, while utility vehicle sales surged by an impressive 111.6%. As reported in The Indian Express, cars priced above ₹10 lakh experienced a fivefold faster growth compared to those priced below ₹10 lakh.



Screenshot 2025-01-17 061553.png

This trend underscores the ongoing distress in the lower end of the auto segment, which has a cascading effect on the entry-level car market. Many consumers in this segment typically upgrade from two-wheelers, but the economic strain has limited their ability to do so. India, with a car ownership rate of just 7.5%, lags far behind other nations, reflecting its nascent automotive penetration.

Figure 3: Car ownership across various countries

View attachment 20432

Two-wheelers (2Ws) have been the back-bone of India’s auto-sector, remaining the most preferred mode of transportation for millions. In 2024, 2Ws constituted for ~78% of all vehicular sales.

Figure 4: Vehicular sales by category | 2024

View attachment 20433

Furthermore, 2Ws sales have shown significant progress with a double digit growth rate of 11% Year-on-Year (YoY) in 2024.

Figure 5: Two-wheeler sales | 2017-2024

However, a closer look at model-wise sales of two-wheelers reveals a notable trend similar to four-wheelers: the growing premiumization of vehicles. Between 2023 and 2024, premium two-wheelers outperformed mass-market commuter models, recording significantly higher growth rates as outlined in the figure below.

Figure 6: Two-wheeler vehicle segment growth rate FY2023-24

Moreover, while two-wheeler sales are still lower than the peak in 2019 in the pre-pandemic era, the four-wheeler sales have significantly increased by 30% in the same period.

Figure 7: Four-wheeler sales | 2017-2024

2024 | The beginning of a slowdown?​

The post-pandemic recovery of the Indian automotive industry has been a story of resilience and growth, but 2024 marks the beginning of an industry-wide slowdown after two consecutive years of strong demand. While overall vehicle sales remained subdued for most of the year, October stood out as an exception due to the alignment of three major festivals—Navratri, Dhanteras, and Diwali—in the same month.

Figure 8: Vehicular category-wise monthly sales | 2024

Uncharacteristically, December—the month typically associated with end-of-year discounts and high sales—saw a decline in demand, disrupting historical trends. According to an Economic Times report, Indian car dealers recorded a surprising 2% drop in sales in December 2024, reflecting broader economic pressures.
Click to expand...

I have posted Wikipedia link about car manufacturing by country. Have you taken any trouble to read it? The link you quoted was in response to your your post in which you said that India imports automobile parts. Both are different. Your problem is that you copy pest anything by searching on Google. Irrespective of whether it is relevant or not.

🚘 Top Country Estimates for 2025​

According to multiple sources, the leading countries in vehicle production in 2025 are projected as follows:

1. China​

2. United States​

3. Japan​

4. India​

  • Estimated to reach 6.2 – 6.5 million passenger vehicles in 2025 World ranking sites.
  • According to country-level official numbers, India likely produces ~6.0 million light vehicles in 2024‑25, including both passenger and commercial vehicles Wikipedia.

5. Germany​



 

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