[🇮🇷] Breaking! Israel has attacked Iran. Live Coverage

[4MikeEcho]

Iran has killed well over 2500 Israeli's since oct 7th last year bhai, and injured multiple times dat number! Hundreds of IDF soldier amputees today from gunshot/ shrapnel injuries from Hamas/ Hezb/ Kataib weaponry. When yous sitting in dat Merkava tank and that Al-Yasin RPG hits you, the concussion seriously messes you up. Your brain not da same afterwords. Many people commit suicide afterwords from PTSD. And I believe the IDF had a plan to take out our Kahuta back in the early 1980's in a joint op with the Indian AF during the Zia era, not 1998.

Assuming 2,500 number is correct, this is not something to be proud off, given the cost to go into kill these. 1-2 million misplaced and 100-200K injured/wounded and orphans.

I don't count the dead Gazans since they were the lucky ones. The survivors and the injured htat got treated with minimal facilities are the ones with lives in hell.

I admire the Iranians for being the only country that Israel thinks of as a threat. So I would like to think that Iranians were not the ones that engineered this given the lives involved, but that Hamas did it on its own. So please be careful of chest thumping on the did Israelis unless you daily watch the Gazans suffer.

 

[4MikeEcho]

We’ve got col McGregor and Scot Ritter as sources along with middleast eye and so many others saying it now. I’m happy to post the articles/ vidz but the truth now is something everyone was unaware of previously. Israel does not have the means nor da oomph to retaliate. Jericho series IRBMs are the only thing in the IDF arsenal with a reach to strike deep in Iran. So why is Israel not using them? I believe you know the answer to dat. My hunch tells me they don’t got enough of em to make any significant impact and more importantly the IDF is scared that Iranian ABM defenses are robust enough to defeat them, cuz theys old. It will be very embarrassing if Isra-heel launched a full on retaliation and it appears like a child tryin retaliate against an adult. Irans already pulled down Israel’s pants in front of da whole world. All Israel can do is assasinate IRGC officers in foreign countries, and even that activity might come under guarded scrutiny from now on within their gubment. Most of the IDF strikes in da Sy-Raaq are like pounding sand. The ammo stores are in deep underground bunkers and tunnels. There’s no real damage. Everyone knows.

I really want Mcgregor and Scott to be right and I want Iranians to have parity with Israel.

But Scott and Mcregor have both been wrong. They though Russians were going to overrun Ukraine since before the invasion and Russians stuck in stalemate and now $61BN going to Ukraine.

May be in this case they are right but we need to be objective about this and not think Israelis are weaker than they are and Iranians are stronger than they are.

None of us (nor Mcgregor) know the details of Israeli/Iranian parity/weakness. Only Iranians and ISraelis know them.

 

[4MikeEcho]

Post exchange analysis from satellite imagery.

Both countries crossed a threshold and demonstrated what they could do to each other IF they had nukes.

For the ballistic missile that hit the Nevatim air base, with a tactical nuclear warhead, it would have eliminated it.

The Israelis that used likely a Air Launched stand-off weapon like Blue Sparrow or Rocks to destroy an S-300 demonstrated that they can fly right up to 300 miles stand-off range unchallenged over Iraq/Syria and launch a weapon to pinpoint a target like an S-300 and have no trouble. With a nuclear weapon they can repeat this.

Both countries have different philosopies. Iran with mass attack to overwhelm and Israel with precision and stealth. Doesn't mean one is better than the other. Both work for each country.

Thats what they respectively proved in this exchange.

I am all for chest thumping for emotional reasons that Iran is great (and more guts and gusto than all other muslim countries COMBINED), but as given this is pkdefense, we should not mix emotion with reality

Satellite image analyzed by AP shows damage after Iranian attack on Israeli desert air base

An Iranian attack on an Israeli desert air base last week as part of Tehran’s unprecedented assault on the country damaged a taxiway.

apnews.com

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — An Iranian attack on an Israeli desert air base last week as part of Tehran's unprecedented assault on the country damaged a taxiway, a satellite image analyzed by The Associated Press on Saturday shows.

The overall damage done to Nevatim air base in southern Israel was minor despite Iran launching hundreds of drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. Israeli air defenses and fighter jets, backed by the U.S., the United Kingdom and neighboring Jordan, shot down the vast majority of the incoming fire.

But the Iranian attack last weekend showed Tehran's willingness to use its vast arsenal of ballistic missiles directly against Israel as tensions remain high across the wider Middle East over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip. An apparent Israeli retaliatory attack Friday on Isfahan, Iran, and Tehran's low-key response to it suggest both countries want to dial back their long-running shadow war for now — though risks of a wider conflagration in the region remain.

The Planet Labs PBC image, taken Friday for the AP, shows fresh blacktop across a taxiway near hangars at the southern part of Nevatim air base, about 65 kilometers (40 miles) south of Jerusalem. The daily newspaper Haaretz, which published lower-resolution images of the site Thursday, identified the hangars nearby as housing C-130 cargo aircraft flown by transport squadrons.



The satellite image corresponds to footage earlier released by the Israeli military, which showed construction equipment working on the damaged taxiway. A hangar in the background of the video mirrors those seen nearby.

Other images released by the Israeli military showed a crater in the sand and damage under what appeared to be a wall that it said came from the Iranian attack. The little visible damage seen at the air base in the satellite image directly contradicts Iran's efforts to portray the attack as a great victory to a public alienated by the Islamic Republic's cratering economy and its heavy-handed crackdowns on dissent in recent years.

"This operation became a sign of the power of the Islamic Republic and its armed forces," Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said Friday. "It also showed the steely determination of our nation and our wise leader, the commander of all forces."

However, it does show Iran's arsenal has the ability to reach Israel, as the April 13 attack marked the first direct military assault on the country by a foreign nation since Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein launched Scud missiles at Israel in the 1991 Gulf War.

 

[Old School]

It wasn't Black Sparrow but ‘Rampage system’. ISRAEL has successfully hit an Iranian S-300 site in that day near Natanz with the “Rampage’ supersonic air launched missile without being detected.

Report: Israel used air-to-surface missile called ‘The Rampage’ in Iran attack

* * *

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[Old School]

India also has the Israeli Rampage missile system for its navy.

🇮🇳 - Indian Navy MiG-29 Received Israeli Rampage Missiles which hit Iranian S-300 site

The Indian Navy has increased the lethality of its MiG-29 combat jets with the integration of Israeli-made Rampage missiles. As reported by The War Zone, the carrier-based fighter aircraft was seen carrying the precision-guided weapon under its wings. Another photo on social media showed some...

www.pkdefense.com

 

[Deleted due to Error (Muji Iqbal)]

Look Israel attacked Iran first. So Iran has a right to retaliate against Israel.

Israel should not have attacked Iran in the first place.

We have to be impartial and honest here.

 

[Lulldapull]

I really want Mcgregor and Scott to be right and I want Iranians to have parity with Israel.

But Scott and Mcregor have both been wrong. They though Russians were going to overrun Ukraine since before the invasion and Russians stuck in stalemate and now $61BN going to Ukraine.

May be in this case they are right but we need to be objective about this and not think Israelis are weaker than they are and Iranians are stronger than they are.

None of us (nor Mcgregor) know the details of Israeli/Iranian parity/weakness. Only Iranians and ISraelis know them.

I believe the Russian war strategy in Ukraine is one of 'submission via attrition', not conquest. The Iranians are successfully using the same strategy against their rivals from Herat to Haifa. It paid off handsomely in Yemen and Afghanistan. It also paid off dividends in da SyRaaq, where Iran's got a quarter million militia members doing its bidding. You wear down your opponents with constant attacks, harassment and putting dem under siege surrounding them with heavily armed well trained and motivated dug in guerilla forces. The Russians too have adopted this cunning tactic when they've made a deep incursion into eastern Ukraine and created fortifications and kill zones which have killed and injured 500k Urainian troops along with thousands of NATO volunteers/ mercs. The area just beyond the Donbas is a gigantic meat grinder where precision artillery/ ATGMs and land attack ballistic/ ALCM's/ ALBM's smash down on the repeated but failed Ukrainian military offensives. This is also been the Iranian tactic in the SyRaaq, successfully used against Daesh/ ISIS and other regional western backed forces. Conquest automatically comes, when your opponent loses his will to fight. And evidently is a very sudden event. So I believe Russia and Iran have the upper hand in all these theaters of operations. War is never fun bro.......but it is what it is. Russia and Iran are motivated and have an imperial agenda (as a culture/ legacy). We in the subcontinent can't relate to this, cuz we've never done any of this nor do we ever plan on doing it. The west is hard pressed to counter Russia and Iran.

 

[Saif]

Khamenei praises ‘success’ of military after Israel attack

Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei praised the country’s armed forces for their ‘success’ in his first public comments since Tehran launched an unprecedented direct attack on Israel last week...

www.newagebd.net

Khamenei praises 'success' of military after Israel attack
Agence France-Presse . Tehran 21 April, 2024, 23:05

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei praised the country's armed forces for their 'success' in his first public comments since Tehran launched an unprecedented direct attack on Israel last week.

In a meeting with Iranian military commanders on Sunday, Khamenei praised the armed forces for their 'success in recent events', a week after the country's first-ever direct attack on Israel from its own territory.

'The armed forces showed a good image of their abilities and power and an admirable image of the Iranian nation,' Khamenei said. 'They also proved the emergence of the power of the Iranian nation's determination at the international level.'

The remarks from Iran's supreme leader are the first since Iran attacked Israel and since a reported Israeli attack on a military airbase in central Isfahan province on Friday.

'The armed forces' recent achievements have created a sense of splendour and magnificence about Islamic Iran in the eyes of the world,' Khamenei said in quotes posted on his official X account.

The Friday strike, which Khamenei did not mention, was a presumed response to Iran's unprecedented drone and missile attack on Israel which was itself a retaliation for an airstrike on the Iranian consular building in Damascus.

That attack, widely blamed on Israel, levelled the consular annex of the Iranian embassy and killed seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, including two generals.

Israel said it intercepted 99 per cent of the more than 300 drones and missiles fired at it, with the aid of the United States and other allies and that those which got through caused only minor damage.

Addressing his country's attack on Israel, Khamenei said 'the issue of the number of missiles fired or the missiles that hit the target' was 'secondary'.

'The main issue is the emergence of the willpower of the Iranian nation and the armed forces in the international arena,' he said, according to his official website.

Iran and Israel appeared to have stepped back from the brink of a broader conflict following Friday's attack, which Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian appeared to downplay to US media on Saturday.

Speaking to NBC News, he dismissed it as 'no attack' and said the weapons used were 'at the level of toys', adding that if there was 'no new adventure' by Israel then Iran 'will have no response'.

The comments helped to dampen fears of an all-out war between the arch-foes which could spread into a wider regional conflict.​

 

[Deleted due to Error (Muji Iqbal)]

USA supports Israel. I can see why the world hates USA.

 

[4MikeEcho]

I believe the Russian war strategy in Ukraine is one of 'submission via attrition', not conquest. The Iranians are successfully using the same strategy against their rivals from Herat to Haifa. It paid off handsomely in Yemen and Afghanistan. It also paid off dividends in da SyRaaq, where Iran's got a quarter million militia members doing its bidding. You wear down your opponents with constant attacks, harassment and putting dem under siege surrounding them with heavily armed well trained and motivated dug in guerilla forces. The Russians too have adopted this cunning tactic when they've made a deep incursion into eastern Ukraine and created fortifications and kill zones which have killed and injured 500k Urainian troops along with thousands of NATO volunteers/ mercs. The area just beyond the Donbas is a gigantic meat grinder where precision artillery/ ATGMs and land attack ballistic/ ALCM's/ ALBM's smash down on the repeated but failed Ukrainian military offensives. This is also been the Iranian tactic in the SyRaaq, successfully used against Daesh/ ISIS and other regional western backed forces. Conquest automatically comes, when your opponent loses his will to fight. And evidently is a very sudden event. So I believe Russia and Iran have the upper hand in all these theaters of operations. War is never fun bro.......but it is what it is. Russia and Iran are motivated and have an imperial agenda (as a culture/ legacy). We in the subcontinent can't relate to this, cuz we've never done any of this nor do we ever plan on doing it. The west is hard pressed to counter Russia and Iran.

I am not questioning the strategic thought process and success of Iran's long game that directly (and indirectly) forms the only threat axis against Israel and also (in Yemen) pretty much put the Saudis in their place.

That is to be admired (militarily). But that won't extend to Iran can win a conventional war in direct confrontation with Israel or it showed superiority over Israel. It did what it had to do. In fact it did the same thing in Baluchistan a few months back to make a point only to be retaliated by Pakistan. It did the same exact thing in ISrael.
Tactical engagement on one side, but I do feel that Iran got played, despite its better acumen. Prior to Iran's attack, Israel was under pressure everywhere for its conduct in Gaza. More than it has ever experienced historically. Gaza was the news, west was reaching its limits and Biden was criticizing Israel publicly almost every week.

Israel knew that by attacking the embassy in Damascus, Iran will follow through and if it does, nobody will remember Israel's atrocities and narrative will shift. Thats exactly what happened and Iran walked into a strategic trap. All western nations lined up (including Arab ones) to support Israel militarily and here again Israel was a victim. Just look at this forum, nobody has posted on Gaza invasion thread for the last 5 days as if it never happened.

To summarize , Iran walked into a trap set by Israel where Israel played the victim in the world and the world (and us) forgot about Gaza and got intertwined on Iran's success or not or Israel's success or not against Iran.

As for Ukraine/Russia, lets see if this tactic works. It was a stronger Russia with USSR (with Ukraine in it) that eventually gave up on Afghanistan. With $61BN more in funding coming, there may be a reprieve, at least for the rest of this year. One thing that will Ukrainians in is if Trump wins that Russia prevailed. Otherwise its a war of attrition and missiles and industrial capacity.

But that opinion is better to discuss in Ukraine thread, not here

 

[Lulldapull]

I am not questioning the strategic thought process and success of Iran's long game that directly (and indirectly) forms the only threat axis against Israel and also (in Yemen) pretty much put the Saudis in their place.

That is to be admired (militarily). But that won't extend to Iran can win a conventional war in direct confrontation with Israel or it showed superiority over Israel. It did what it had to do. In fact it did the same thing in Baluchistan a few months back to make a point only to be retaliated by Pakistan. It did the same exact thing in ISrael.
Tactical engagement on one side, but I do feel that Iran got played, despite its better acumen. Prior to Iran's attack, Israel was under pressure everywhere for its conduct in Gaza. More than it has ever experienced historically. Gaza was the news, west was reaching its limits and Biden was criticizing Israel publicly almost every week.

Israel knew that by attacking the embassy in Damascus, Iran will follow through and if it does, nobody will remember Israel's atrocities and narrative will shift. Thats exactly what happened and Iran walked into a strategic trap. All western nations lined up (including Arab ones) to support Israel militarily and here again Israel was a victim. Just look at this forum, nobody has posted on Gaza invasion thread for the last 5 days as if it never happened.

To summarize , Iran walked into a trap set by Israel where Israel played the victim in the world and the world (and us) forgot about Gaza and got intertwined on Iran's success or not or Israel's success or not against Iran.

As for Ukraine/Russia, lets see if this tactic works. It was a stronger Russia with USSR (with Ukraine in it) that eventually gave up on Afghanistan. With $61BN more in funding coming, there may be a reprieve, at least for the rest of this year. One thing that will Ukrainians in is if Trump wins that Russia prevailed. Otherwise its a war of attrition and missiles and industrial capacity.

But that opinion is better to discuss in Ukraine thread, not here

This Israel type drama was exactly the same thing going on throughout the post WW2 era until the 80's with South Africa. Same same! A hated euro colony practicing apartheid and brutally suppressing black people. This shiit went on forever until da Zulu's and the ANC got organized and joined Angola with Cuban mercenaries in a direct military/ guerilla confrontation against Pretoria. The south African whites realized their times up!......The west withdrew support, carted the nukes out da back door and almost all the South African whites quietly left for Canada, UK, Australia and Holland. I believe if Iran pressurizes Isra-heel long enough, it will crack. Like I said, it will be a very sudden event too when it happens. Just like Afghanistan with Biden saying we have a robust military, the ANA is well trained and adequately manned, and then a few weeks later the unthinkable happened. What I wrote here, is exactly what a former South African ex military commander told me when I worked in Perth Australia with him on a resource project.

 

[4MikeEcho]

It wasn't Black Sparrow but ‘Rampage system’. ISRAEL has successfully hit an Iranian S-300 site in that day near Natanz with the “Rampage’ supersonic air launched missile without being detected.

Report: Israel used air-to-surface missile called ‘The Rampage’ in Iran attack

* * *

www.timesofisrael.com

Much like Iran demonstrated that it can launch mass attack , Israel demonstrated that it can get within 200 miles standoff and strike a pin-point target. The unwritten threat was that if they put a nuke warhead both sides would succeed with their doctrine.

One thing I will say that is that its not that often that two countries make a point but never want to cross the brink. Pakistan and India have done this.

Imagine if Iraq/Iran did this in 1980, and never crossed the brink to all out war, Israel would be in a more precarious situation now

 

[Old School]

UukMuch like Iran demonstrated that it can launch mass attack , Israel demonstrated that it can get within 200 miles standoff and strike a pin-point target. The unwritten threat was that if they put a nuke warhead both sides would succeed with their doctrine.
One thing I will say that is that its not that often that two countries make a point but never want to cross the brink. Pakistan and India have done this.

Imagine if Iraq/Iran did this in 1980, and never crossed the brink to all out war, Israel would be in a more precarious situation now

1980 was at the height of the cold war with Saddam Hossain playing both the US and USSR while being a USSR client. Ayatollah was in Iran and Soviets in Afghanistan. Old KGB archives showed that USSR was to keen to have both Iran and Pakistan to be at war with their neighbors and preoccupied. Pakistan and India were wiser. However, Pakistan is still paying for its greatest strategic mistake of taking part in Afghan mujahedin project. It will haunt Pakistan in the coming days too.

 

[Saif]

Iran retaliation

ON THE night of April 13, Iran attacked Israel for the first time in history with drones and missiles. Israel claimed that Iran had launched 170 drones, more than 309 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles. Iran did not specify the...

www.newagebd.net

Iran retaliation
Mohammad Abdur Razzak 26 April, 2024, 00:00

ON THE night of April 13, Iran attacked Israel for the first time in history with drones and missiles. Israel claimed that Iran had launched 170 drones, more than 309 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles. Iran did not specify the number of drones and missiles fired into Israel. Iranian attacks came as a retaliation to Israel's strike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria on April 1, which killed 13 people, including seven members of Iran Revolutionary Guard Corp and two of them were majors general. After the attack, the Iranian armed forces chief of staff said, 'The operation had achieved all of its objectives and was over.' What were Iran's objectives?

Iran's chief of staff did not explain the objectives of Iran's operation, code-named True Promise. Understandably, the fundamental objective was to launch an attack to avenge Israeli attack on Iranian consulate, which is Iran's sovereign territory under the Vienna Convention. The Associated objectives are (1) to assure the domestic audience that Iran is not weak, (2) demonstrate Iran's long-distance attack capability, (3) test own tactics and weapons in long-distance air warfare, and (4) challenge Israeli military's invincibility.

Iran's attack had two principal dimensions — political and military. On the political front, it was a telegraphic attack of drones and missiles telling all players about the impending attack. Iran did not want to catch Israel off-guards to avoid a full-scale war. According to Iran's foreign minister, Tehran informed the United States that its attack on Israel would be 'limited' and also told regional neighbours of its planned strikes 72 hours in advance. Iran wanted the United States and its allies to know of the plan and, perhaps, also the timing of the attack allowing Israel and its allies to have adequate air defences in place. Drones were in the air for nine hours, allowing sufficient time to the United States, Israel and its Arab allies to intercept projectiles in the air.

The principal purpose of the telegraphic attack was to avoid a full-scale war but to resolutely demonstrate Iran's military resolve. A full-scale war would mean Israel's proxies, the United States and the United Kingdom, fighting Iran. Iran could not afford to take that risk. However, Iran claims to have an Israeli intelligence centre close to the Syrian border and an airbase had been destroyed 'to a significant extent and put out of operation'.

Iran also claims to have damaged Israeli strategic Nevatim airbase in the Negev desert which was used to attack Iranian consulate. Mohsen Abdollahi, a Tehran-based professor, said that Iran's defensive attacks against a decade of Israeli cyber and military attacks on civilian targets and individuals in Iran were limited and had the lowest human casualties. Why? Because Iran did not want to expand the war in the region. The message of Iran's attack is: 'Stop the attack on Iran or you will face a real attack.'

The military dimension of the attack was Iran testing its tactics and its reach. Iran orchestrated a three-stage or three waves of attack in succession. First, the low-cost drones, Shahed 136, were fired followed by cruise missiles with bomblets as warheads and, third, ballistic missiles with reduced payload. Drones triggered Iran's iron dome missiles, cruise missiles with flare like bomblets activated patriots and ballistic missiles entered Israeli air space while air defences were engaged with cheap drones and flare like bomblets. The warhead detached from ballistic missile with acceleration to hit the target quickly. Apart from assessing political and military impact on the ground, the balance of the attack and defence is also weighed in terms costs. The attack cost Iran around $60–68 million and the defence cost Israel between $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion.

Another political frontier of the confrontation was Arab nations taking side with Israel. Jordan, 'a country with a queen of Palestine heritage' shot down a number of Iranian drones and missiles to defend Israel. Jordanian prime minister ridiculously claimed to have done so in 'self defence' although the Iranian attack was directed against Israel. Saudi Arabia and the UAE shared intelligence with the US and opened their air space to help intercept Iranian drones and missiles. Some commentators do not view Saudi and UAE role in this case 'as betrayal of the Iranians or greater Muslim cause.'

Iran reportedly wanted Arab countries also to pass intelligence to the US. This tactic has similarity with Iran's attack on Al Asad air base in Iraq in 2021 after the US drone strike killed General Qassem Soleimani. The telegraphic attack saved everyone's face. Iran's government can say its people at home that it attacked Israel, Israel can claim to have shot down 99 per cent of the incoming projectiles and protected its citizens, the US can claim to have defended Israel and Arab countries except Jordan can pretend they were not involved. The whole transactions look win-win for all parties. But it will not stop Israel there.

Israel announced a hit back at Iran. Israel did not give any indication when it will strike back. But there are indications where it will hit. Israel will target Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran warned of retaliation with greater force never used before. Israel and the US will be happy to drag Iran into a wider war.

Mohammad Abdur Razzak (safera690@yahoo.com), a retired commodore of the Bangladesh navy, is a security analyst.​

 

[Saif]

Iran retaliation

ON THE night of April 13, Iran attacked Israel for the first time in history with drones and missiles. Israel claimed that Iran had launched 170 drones, more than 309 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles. Iran did not specify the...

www.newagebd.net

Iran retaliation
Mohammad Abdur Razzak 26 April, 2024, 00:00

ON THE night of April 13, Iran attacked Israel for the first time in history with drones and missiles. Israel claimed that Iran had launched 170 drones, more than 309 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles. Iran did not specify the number of drones and missiles fired into Israel. Iranian attacks came as a retaliation to Israel's strike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria on April 1, which killed 13 people, including seven members of Iran Revolutionary Guard Corp and two of them were majors general. After the attack, the Iranian armed forces chief of staff said, 'The operation had achieved all of its objectives and was over.' What were Iran's objectives?

Iran's chief of staff did not explain the objectives of Iran's operation, code-named True Promise. Understandably, the fundamental objective was to launch an attack to avenge Israeli attack on Iranian consulate, which is Iran's sovereign territory under the Vienna Convention. The Associated objectives are (1) to assure the domestic audience that Iran is not weak, (2) demonstrate Iran's long-distance attack capability, (3) test own tactics and weapons in long-distance air warfare, and (4) challenge Israeli military's invincibility.

Iran's attack had two principal dimensions — political and military. On the political front, it was a telegraphic attack of drones and missiles telling all players about the impending attack. Iran did not want to catch Israel off-guards to avoid a full-scale war. According to Iran's foreign minister, Tehran informed the United States that its attack on Israel would be 'limited' and also told regional neighbours of its planned strikes 72 hours in advance. Iran wanted the United States and its allies to know of the plan and, perhaps, also the timing of the attack allowing Israel and its allies to have adequate air defences in place. Drones were in the air for nine hours, allowing sufficient time to the United States, Israel and its Arab allies to intercept projectiles in the air.

The principal purpose of the telegraphic attack was to avoid a full-scale war but to resolutely demonstrate Iran's military resolve. A full-scale war would mean Israel's proxies, the United States and the United Kingdom, fighting Iran. Iran could not afford to take that risk. However, Iran claims to have an Israeli intelligence centre close to the Syrian border and an airbase had been destroyed 'to a significant extent and put out of operation'.

Iran also claims to have damaged Israeli strategic Nevatim airbase in the Negev desert which was used to attack Iranian consulate. Mohsen Abdollahi, a Tehran-based professor, said that Iran's defensive attacks against a decade of Israeli cyber and military attacks on civilian targets and individuals in Iran were limited and had the lowest human casualties. Why? Because Iran did not want to expand the war in the region. The message of Iran's attack is: 'Stop the attack on Iran or you will face a real attack.'

The military dimension of the attack was Iran testing its tactics and its reach. Iran orchestrated a three-stage or three waves of attack in succession. First, the low-cost drones, Shahed 136, were fired followed by cruise missiles with bomblets as warheads and, third, ballistic missiles with reduced payload. Drones triggered Iran's iron dome missiles, cruise missiles with flare like bomblets activated patriots and ballistic missiles entered Israeli air space while air defences were engaged with cheap drones and flare like bomblets. The warhead detached from ballistic missile with acceleration to hit the target quickly. Apart from assessing political and military impact on the ground, the balance of the attack and defence is also weighed in terms costs. The attack cost Iran around $60–68 million and the defence cost Israel between $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion.

Another political frontier of the confrontation was Arab nations taking side with Israel. Jordan, 'a country with a queen of Palestine heritage' shot down a number of Iranian drones and missiles to defend Israel. Jordanian prime minister ridiculously claimed to have done so in 'self defence' although the Iranian attack was directed against Israel. Saudi Arabia and the UAE shared intelligence with the US and opened their air space to help intercept Iranian drones and missiles. Some commentators do not view Saudi and UAE role in this case 'as betrayal of the Iranians or greater Muslim cause.'

Iran reportedly wanted Arab countries also to pass intelligence to the US. This tactic has similarity with Iran's attack on Al Asad air base in Iraq in 2021 after the US drone strike killed General Qassem Soleimani. The telegraphic attack saved everyone's face. Iran's government can say its people at home that it attacked Israel, Israel can claim to have shot down 99 per cent of the incoming projectiles and protected its citizens, the US can claim to have defended Israel and Arab countries except Jordan can pretend they were not involved. The whole transactions look win-win for all parties. But it will not stop Israel there.

Israel announced a hit back at Iran. Israel did not give any indication when it will strike back. But there are indications where it will hit. Israel will target Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran warned of retaliation with greater force never used before. Israel and the US will be happy to drag Iran into a wider war.

Mohammad Abdur Razzak (safera690@yahoo.com), a retired commodore of the Bangladesh navy, is a security analyst.​

 

[Saif]

Israel-Iran war threat fades, but danger unchanged for Gazans

UP UNTIL April 1, Israel was increasingly being viewed by western leaders as a near-rogue state. Though US president Joe Biden was still not calling for a...

www.newagebd.net

Israel-Iran war threat fades, but danger unchanged for Gazans
by Paul Rogers 28 April, 2024, 00:02

Palestinian children stand amid the debris of a house destroyed by overnight Israeli bombardment in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on April 27 as the conflict between Israel and Hamas continues. | Agence France-Presse

Attention has returned to atrocities Israel is inflicting on Palestinians, but Biden still will not call for ceasefire, writes Paul Rogers

UP UNTIL April 1, Israel was increasingly being viewed by western leaders as a near-rogue state. Though US president Joe Biden was still not calling for a ceasefire — despite being the only world leader who can do so — he was reportedly ramping up pressure on the Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, to end the siege on Gaza, allow far more aid into the enclave, and work towards an end to the fighting.

But the entire situation changed after Israel launched an air attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria. Amid fears of a probable military response from Iran, Israel became a western ally once more. When Iran's counterattack did indeed come, on April 13, it was met by not only the IDF, but also by US, British and French militaries, with additional support from Arab nations allied to the West, such as Jordan.

After weeks of escalating tensions between the two countries, Israel had been expected to deliver a major attack on Iran in the days before it bombed Damascus. Its eventual strike killed 16 people, but having followed warnings that Israel might target Iran's civil and presumed military nuclear programme, it was considered a small-scale affair by many Western analysts – so much so that hard-line members of Netanyahu's coalition were deeply critical of it.

Whatever Netanyahu's motives in the Damascus attack, one result was briefly minimising the media coverage of Israel's ongoing war on Gaza. The number of Palestinians killed is nearing 35,000, including at least 12,000 children, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry, with double that number having been injured and many more missing.

For reasons not entirely understood, both Israel and Iran have chosen to avoid an escalating war, with Iran's foreign ministry making clear that its strike was a direct response to Israel's, and that it would take no further action unless the IDF did so. This decision has eased some of the tensions in the region, at least among leaders, and has returned the spotlight to the atrocities in Gaza.

This week, it was reported that Palestinian civil defence crews had uncovered a mass grave in the grounds of the Nasser Medical Complex following the withdrawal of IDF troops from Khan Younis, a city in south Gaza. The bodies of 180 Palestinians, mostly children and women, have so far been recovered. The news follows the discovery of another mass grave, where the bodies of 30 Palestinians were found, at al-Shifa Hospital last week.

Netanyahu's determination to destroy Hamas in Gaza appears as strong as ever. The IDF's attacks are intensifying and it still plans to launch a full-scale assault on Rafah, in the far south-west of Gaza, in the coming weeks. Around 1.4 million Palestinians are sheltering in Rafah, whose pre-war population was 280,000, with many having fled to the supposedly 'safe' city after Israel ordered the evacuation of northern Gaza last year.

While the Israeli prime minister would no doubt like to clear Hamas out of Rafah, that may not be essential if he still plans, as he suggested at the offset of the war, to contain Gaza's entire population — 2.2 million people in late 2023 — to the west of the city, in the southwest of the Gazan strip, with deep buffer zones separating it from Israel. There, Netanyahu's government says Gazans would be in some way supported by the 'international community' — the implication being that they will not be Israel's problem. Their lives would be hugely constricted even compared to the pre-war situation, when the entire Gaza Strip was already a huge, densely populated open prison with border guards instead of jailers. It would become an even more wretched place — far more overcrowded and closely garrisoned.

In this scenario, some in Netanhayu's government have suggested the whole of the north of Gaza would be settled by Israeli Jews, with the coast particularly attractive for new seaside residences. In time, and perhaps over some years, some Palestinians would find the means to pay illegal smugglers to get them out of their crowded confinement and to elsewhere in the Middle East and beyond.

If the hard-right in Netanyah's Likud Party becomes a more powerful part of his coalition, a similar process could be expanded across the West Bank, a steady movement towards fulfilling the party's policy of Israeli sovereignty from the river to the sea.

In the meantime, negotiations between Israel and Hamas are on hold, with mediator Qatar increasingly dubious about prospects for progress as both sides refuse to move on conditions the other deems to be red lines. The IDF is stepping up its offensive operations across the West Bank — having killed ten Palestinians in an attack on the Nur Shams refugee camp on Saturday and launching further lethal attacks on Palestinian towns and villages in the area, according to a local source in the area who wishes to remain anonymous.

In one of the few visible signs of Washington's pressure on Israel, the US is likely to sanction the IDF's Netzah Yehuda battalion — a unit of ultra-orthodox Israeli Jews — for human rights abuses, including the death of an 80-year-old Palestinian-American man in 2022. The sanctions will reportedly mean US military equipment sold to Israel cannot be used by the battalion, which will also no longer be able to take part in training with the US army.

While this may suggest a hardening of a US stance, it comes alongside the congressional decision to agree a $26b support package to Israel, mostly for weapons. In short, the burst of tension over Israeli-Iranian relations and the risk of war has eased and the emphasis returns to the ongoing war, mainly on Gaza but increasingly in the West Bank as well. As the death toll rises, Netanyahu and his team remain determined to continue the war and there is little sign that Biden will force an early end.

Qantara.de, April 24. Paul Rogers is emeritus professor of peace studies in the peace studies and international relations department at Bradford University and an honorary fellow at the Joint Service Command and Staff College.​

 

[4MikeEcho]

Iran played into the Israel trap of deflecting tension from the misery in Gaza through the 2-3 week interlude. It took a few thousand students across US and European universities to bring it back to the forefront.

Btw, I know the Govts are coopted and corrupted but where is the general population or at least the student population in muslim countries: are they protesting?

 

[Old School]

Iran played into the Israel trap of deflecting tension from the misery in Gaza through the 2-3 week interlude. It took a few thousand students across US and European universities to bring it back to the forefront.

Btw, I know the Govts are coopted and corrupted but where is the general population or at least the student population in muslim countries: are they protesting?

People or students in Muslim countries are generally not revolutionary type unless a superpower is funding them. We had a big communist student movement in the 1960s in Pakistan with Soviet Funding. Brutal government crackdown including enforced disppearance made the west Pakistan almost communist free. The biggest student movement backed by the communists took place in Pakistan in 1969. Many students were killed. However, the East-Pakistan became then the hotbed of the communists as the Chinese government did not want anymore crackdown on the communists and the East-Pakistani administration and poeple were sympathertic to the communists. It was the pro-Soviet sepraratists who played the key role of the East-Pakistan separetists movement. Our Pakistani media still suppress and distort a lot of interesting info about that tragedy because many high profile politicians and civil-military officials were on the Soviet payroll at that time.

 

[Lulldapull]

People or students in Muslim countries are generally not revolutionary type unless a superpower is funding them. We had a big communist student movement in the 1960s in Pakistan with Soviet Funding. Brutal government crackdown including enforced disppearance made the west Pakistan almost communist free. The biggest student movement backed by the communists took place in Pakistan in 1969. Many students were killed. However, the East-Pakistan became then the hotbed of the communists as the Chinese government did not want anymore crackdown on the communists and the East-Pakistani administration and poeple were sympathertic to the communists. It was the pro-Soviet sepraratists who played the key role of the East-Pakistan separetists movement. Our Pakistani media still suppress and distort a lot of interesting info about that tragedy because many high profile politicians and civil-military officials were on the Soviet payroll at that time.

As soon as da Pashto or Baloch got some exposure to education, he turned into a venemous Marxist. We had a saying back then that falana khan has turned sorkha (red) and Bhutto sahb was in bed wid Mao sahb, even on his death bed the guy holding Mao’s hand was our Bhutto sahb.

Lunn to luggnay thay hamaray no?

Bhutto brought in toxic socialism into our society whilst he consolidated his power base and sucked in all da wealth like a party boss.

Then when Kissinger sahb told him dat da USSR has fukked us in de ass in Vietnam and we want yous to avenge dis infamy in Afghanistan, Bhutto sahb refused to play da game. Then he got hanged for it….

Zia ul Fuckk was then imposed on us! By Henry Kissinger.

Subhanallah!

 

[Old School]

As soon as da Pashto or Baloch got some exposure to education, he turned into a venemous Marxist. We had a saying back then that falana khan has turned sorkha (red) and Bhutto sahb was in bed wid Mao sahb, even on his death bed the guy holding Mao’s hand was our Bhutto sahb.

Lunn to luggnay thay hamaray no?

Bhutto brought in toxic socialism into our society whilst he consolidated his power base and sucked in all da wealth like a party boss.

Then when Kissinger sahb told him dat da USSR has fukked us in de ass in Vietnam and we want yous to avenge dis infamy in Afghanistan, Bhutto sahb refused to play da game. Then he got hanged for it….

Zia ul Fuckk was then imposed on us! By Henry Kissinger.

Subhanallah!

Bhutto was a landlord with an Indian passport in his pocket but played drama as a Pakistani socialist. He was not officially allowed to do politics in Pakistan due to dual nationality, which is illegal by Pakistani law. What a hypocrite !! Bhutto was taking money from everyone - communist or imperialist didn't matter to him. He took money from the KGB to break Pakistan by creating an artificial crisis followed by Operation Searchlight. Yusuf Haroon of the Dawn group was his cashier for all the Soviet money.
He then wanted to be the leader of third-world countries, competing with Indira Gandhi and Sirimavo Bandaranaike of Srilanka. Finally, his over-cynicism got him killed. He was beaten to death by an army baton in the jail, though officially, it was shown that he was hanged to death. No autopsy was ever done, similar to his daughter.