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[🇧🇩] Energy Security of Bangladesh

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Switching to renewables is easier than we think
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ILLUSTRATION: REHNUMA PROSHOON

Energy produced from natural resources (that is, renewable energy) regenerates over the span of a human's life without depleting the planet's resources. These resources, which include biomass, tides, waves, sunshine, wind, rain, and thermal energy stored in the earth's crust, have the advantage of being accessible in some capacity from almost everywhere. They are practically inexhaustible. More importantly, they don't harm the climate or the ecosystem as much. Renewable energy is gradually becoming more affordable; it is equitable and secure, and has the potential to create jobs.

In contrast, fossil fuels like oil, coal, and natural gas are only found in finite amounts. They eventually run out as we continue to extract them. Even if they are created through natural processes, they are not replenished quickly enough to make up for what is consumed by humans. More emissions are produced by burning fossil fuels than by producing electricity from renewable sources. The key to solving the climate catastrophe is switching from fossil fuels – which now produce the majority of emissions – to renewable energy.

One of the largest financial obstacles preventing the country's transition to renewable energy is fossil fuel subsidies. The cost of subsidising the fossil fuel industry alone is enormous and includes direct subsidies, tax benefits, and costs for health and the environment that weren't factored into the pricing of fossil fuels. Subsidies for fossil fuels are unfair and inefficient.

The energy sector in Bangladesh is heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Both domestic and imported fossil fuels play a significant role in our energy production. In 2022, more than 98 percent of all energy production originated from natural gas, oil, diesel, and coal. Less than two percent of the energy mix consisted of renewables. Over the years, the reliance on fossil fuels has intensified. However, the Renewable Energy Policy of Bangladesh, which was introduced in 2008, aimed at harnessing the potential of renewable energy resources and technologies in the country. The policy set a target of meeting five percent of total power demand by 2015 and 10 percent by 2020 using renewable sources. These targets were never met. There are, however, conflicting targets in various governments' policies and plans. The Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan (MCPP) was introduced in 2021 to enhance the nation's resilience against climate change. This plan aims to reach 30 percent renewable energy share by 2030 and at least 40 percent by 2041. In contrast, under the draft Integrated Energy and Power Master Plan (IEPMP), Bangladesh has set a clean energy (renewable and nuclear) target of 40 percent by 2041. Also, the government's annual budget documents set different targets. The real picture shows that Bangladesh's progress towards switching to renewable energy has remained slow and uncertain.

There is no denying that the viability of renewable energy in the country will depend on the market price or value of renewable energy, the costs of renewable energy in comparison to those of other energy resources, policies to promote renewable energy, and environmental goals that increase the costs of using fossil fuels and/or subsidise the costs of renewable energy. As such, the wider adoption of renewable energy is hindered by pressure from fossil fuel lobbies, ineffective governmental regulations, outdated infrastructure, expensive initial installation costs, a lack of proper battery storage systems, a lack of knowledge and awareness, and a lack of relevant policies and subsidies.

To transform Bangladesh's energy systems and speed up the shift to renewable energy in the next decade or so, a few critical actions need to be prioritised. In line with the statements of the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the following actions can be suggested.

Firstly, there is a need to ensure easy access to renewable energy. Renewable energy technology needs to be accessible to everyone and not just for the wealthy. Energy from renewable sources, such as solar and wind, can be stored and released whenever people, communities, and businesses need power thanks to technologies such as battery storage systems. Due to their special ability to quickly absorb, hold, and re-inject electricity, they help increase the flexibility of the energy system. And, when combined with renewable sources, battery storage technologies can offer dependable and less costly electricity in off-grid settlements and isolated networks. Bangladesh also needs to explore the opportunities for importing renewable energy from neighbouring countries like India, Bhutan, and Nepal.

Secondly, a steady supply of raw materials and components for renewable energy is crucial in order to ensure broader access to all the necessary resources. In addition, the management of renewable energy waste is important in order to create supply chains that safeguard ecosystems.

Thirdly, there is a need to create a level playing field for technologies utilising renewable energy. Domestic policy frameworks need to be quickly changed to streamline and accelerate renewable energy projects and spur private sector investments. Policies and procedures must be put in place to lower market risk, enable investment, and provide incentives – including by streamlining the planning, permitting, and regulatory processes and avoiding bottlenecks and red tape. The adoption of solar and wind energy technologies can be accelerated by the availability of modern energy transmission infrastructure, clear and strong policies, transparent processes, and public support.

The country needs to switch energy subsidies from fossil fuels to renewable energy. One of the largest financial obstacles preventing the country's transition to renewable energy is fossil fuel subsidies. The cost of subsidising the fossil fuel industry alone is enormous and includes direct subsidies, tax benefits, and costs for health and the environment that weren't factored into the pricing of fossil fuels. Subsidies for fossil fuels are unfair and inefficient. Subsidising renewable energy instead reduces emissions and has the potential of fostering sustainable economic growth, job creation, improved public health, and greater equality, especially for the poorest and most vulnerable people.

It is also critically important to make considerable investments in renewable energy. There is a need for commitment and accountability, especially from the banks and other public and private financial institutions, which must direct their lending portfolios toward hastening the transition to renewable energy.

Finally, resources must be shifted between competing industrial sectors and political constituencies as part of a sustainable energy transition. As stakeholders in this process hold varying degrees of political and economic power, understanding how political and economic factors influence the transition to renewable energy is crucial in order to formulate effective policies and facilitate the shift to sustainable energy systems.

Dr Selim Raihan is professor at the Department of Economics in the University of Dhaka, and executive director at the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem).​
 

Bangladesh faces massive load-shedding as India's Adani cuts power supply
Emran Hossain 25 June, 2024, 23:12

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Bangladesh, which watched a humid heatwave intensify over almost half of its districts on Tuesday, suffered up to 16 hours of power cuts in places after the power supply from the coal-fired power plant run by Adani Power in India was drastically reduced without a pre-announcement.

With 27,515MW of installed power generation capacity, Bangladesh fell short of 1,887MW of electricity to meet the demand of 14,800MW at 2:00am on Tuesday, the hour the country recorded its peak load-shedding.

Just 24 hours ago, the power shortage stood at 278MW against the demand of 14,380MW.

Since the ongoing heatwave began three days ago, leading to a rise of about 4,000MW in power demand, load-shedding has undergone an astronomical rise from almost zero.

An ongoing economic crisis has seriously limited Bangladesh's energy use for more than two years now.

The current crisis is unique given that almost all baseload power plants are running at half or one-third of their capacities for one reason or another, with no hope of the situation improving anytime soon, especially after one of Bangladesh's two floating storage and regasification units remains out of order since the cyclonic storm Remal hit on May 28.

'The shutdown of a floating storage and regasification unit put us in a crisis that only worsened after Adani shut down one of its two units beyond schedule,' power secretary Habibur Rahman told New Age.

Bangladesh owes over $3 billion to power producers at home and abroad, according to the power ministry, including $500 million owed to Adani Power in outstanding bills.

The public relations agency that was looking after Adani Power's media relations in Bangladesh, however, claimed that the shutdown of one of the units at the 1,600MW Godda power plant was for maintenance and scheduled.

The explanation lacked consistency because the remaining unit still in operation has the capacity to generate at least 800MW.

On June 24, Bangladesh received only 371MW from Adani's Godda power plant.

On June 19, the day Adani shut down its second unit, as revealed by the daily electricity generation report of the Power Grid Company of Bangladesh, Bangladesh received 1,060MW.

The power supply from Tripura also remained below 100MW, often less than 80MW, due to unpaid electricity bills, according to Indian media reports.

A unit of the 1,320MW coal-based Payra power plant is also currently under maintenance.

The 1,320MW coal-fired Rampal power plant supplied 593MW in the evening peak hour on June 24, saying that it had shut down its second unit, about which there was no explanation from the power ministry.

The newly-built 1,200MW Matarbari coal-based power plant had one of its two units under maintenance, according to the PGCB.

The 586MW Unique Meghnaghat power plant remained completely shut down because of a gas shortage.

The 1,224MW newly-built coal-based SS Power plant supplied only 481MW on June 24.

The 307MW coal-based Barishal power plant generated 200MW on June 24 due to a coal shortage.

An analysis of the daily power generation report released by the PGCB showed that 114 out of 150 power plants were either partially or completely out of operation for one reason or another on June 24.

Only about 25 per cent of Bangladesh's current installed generation capacity could smoothly operate, the PGCB report revealed.

On June 24, a total of 33 power plants faced technical problems, such as engine or machine problems, while a fuel shortage affected operations at 46 gas- and furnace-oil-based power plants.

A dozen power plants were under maintenance, while 18 did not operate because their contracts expired.

On June 24, Bangladesh produced 5,655mw using gas at the peak load-shedding hour at 2:00am. The installed gas capacity is 11,880. Before the FSRU malfunctioned, Bangladesh produced a maximum 7,000MW using gas.

The installed coal capacity, on the other hand, is 5,108MW. But the maximum electricity generated from coal was mostly about 3,000MW, though it dropped to about 1500MW occasionally.

The installed furnace-oil-based capacity is 6,035MW. At the peak load-shedding hour on June 24, furnace oil generated 3,202MW.

An online provider of fuel prices, Trading Economics, showed that coal was sold at $131.91 per tonne on June 25 following an 8 per cent fall in its price this month.

The US natural gas price was around $2.8/MMBtu on June 23. The crude oil price held just below $82 per barrel on June 24.

Indian heatwaves and geopolitical unrest have kept fuel prices somewhat unsteady, but energy experts found them very affordable unless the economic situation was really bad.

The Bangladesh Meteorological Department said that a mild to moderate heatwave was sweeping over Dhaka, Rajshahi and Khulna divisions, covering 31 out of 64 districts.

Bangladesh's highest temperature of 38C was recorded in Rajshahi on Tuesday.

New Age staff correspondent in Rajshahi reported that people in rural areas in the districts have been suffering from around 16 hours of power cuts for the past three days.

Mominul Islam, a college student of Anupampur village under Charghat upazila in Rajshahi, said that he could not sleep at all on Monday night because of power cuts amid a humid heatwave.

'Seven to eight power cuts occurred on Monday night,' he said.

Mehedi Hasan, a resident of Shekherpara village under Godagari upazila in Rajshahi, told New Age that they had also been experiencing power cuts of up to 14 to 16 hours for the past few days.

'There is no need for power for irrigation. Why is there load-shedding now?' he asked.​
 

Load-shedding rises despite heatwave retreating
Emran Hossain with Suzon Ali in Rajshahi 27 June, 2024, 00:26

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Despite rain sending the ongoing heatwave on the back foot, load-shedding worsened on Wednesday, further exposing the extent of trouble the economic crisis has put Bangladesh into.

With 27,515MW of installed power generation capacity, Bangladesh fell short of 2,285MW of electricity to meet the demand of 15,450MW at midnight on Wednesday, the peak load-shedding hour of the day.

There was 1,154MW of load-shedding even when the power demand dropped to 13,950MW at 11:00am on Wednesday.

The daily electricity generation report released by the Power Grid Company of Bangladesh revealed that all eight divisions witnessed load-shedding throughout Wednesday, with the Dhaka Division recording the highest average load-shedding of 255MW.

New Age correspondent in Rajshahi reported that in some parts of the northern districts, people were supplied power for only four hours on Wednesday.

'Power stayed for 15 to 30 minutes before going out for four to five hours,' said Nayeb Ali, a college student at Pukhuria village under Shibganj upazila in Chapainawabganj district.

The power supply was received only at night, he said.

Rajshahi needed the power supply mostly during the daytime because the air temperature in the area reached 39.6C with a mild to moderate heatwave sweeping over the division.

The heatwave was also sweeping the districts of Jashore, Chuadanga, Kushtia, Magura, Lalmonirhat, Kurigram, and Tangail.

The heatwave felt far more unbearable than the air temperature indicated because of the high moisture's presence. At 6:00pm on Wednesday, the moisture content was 89 per cent.

With such a high level of moisture present in the air, health experts warned that air temperatures exceeding 35C could be fatal for humans and animals as well.

The Bangladesh Meteorological Department does not release data on the real feeling of temperature considering humidity, for there are many variables such as the speed and direction of wind involved in it.

Still, a heat index of ICDDR,B, also known as the apparent temperature, revealed that the real feeling of living at 35C with 85 per cent humidity could be 60C.

This high temperature could result in death within minutes, health experts warned, unless there was enough arrangement to cool off the body.

The optimum temperature at which the body can control its heat is 35C.

'Luckily, there is not much work in the field at the moment. Otherwise, people would have dropped dead in large numbers,' said Ziaur Rahman, a farmer of Balanagar village under Bagmara upazila in Rajshahi.

He said that people in his area were severely sleep-deprived as they could not stay in bed for long in this humid heatwave, often taking breaks and a stroll around, though it helped a little.

The BMD said that the heatwave might continue to abate through today. On Tuesday, the heatwave was sweeping over 31 districts, which were reduced to 15 on Wednesday.

An ongoing economic crisis has seriously limited Bangladesh's energy use for more than two years now.

The current crisis is unique given that almost all baseload power plants are running at half or one-third of their capacities for one reason or another, with no hope of the situation improving anytime soon.

Bangladesh can smoothly run only a fourth of its 150 power plants at the moment.​
 

Need for rational budgetary allocation for energy security
Published :
Jun 28, 2024 21:33
Updated :
Jun 28, 2024 21:33
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The amount of fund a government allocates in its national budget for primary energy supply reflects its emphasis on ensuring energy security sustainably. But reduction in such allocations as a proportion of the total budget, gives the impression that the policymakers are yet to set their priorities right on the issue. In the fiscal year 2024-25 budget worth Tk7.97 trillion, the energy and power sector is allocated Tk303.17 billion, which is 3.8 per cent of the total budgetary allocation. This is way below the allocation made in proportion to the total budget of the previous fiscal (FY2023-24) at 4.6 per cent. That means the next fiscal (FY25) will see a significant drop by 12.9 per cent compared to FY24's in the sector.

In fact, budgetary allocations for the power and energy sector have witnessed fluctuations over the years reaching a peak in FY 2018-19 followed by a sustained decline in the next two consecutive fiscals FY20 and FY21 by about 11 per cent and 30 per cent respectively. Worse yet, out of these budgetary allocations under the power and energy head, the share of energy is decreasing constantly since FY19. This does not speak well for the government's approach to a policy of sustainable energy security. In this connection, a local economic policy think tank, South Asian Network on Economic Modelling (SANEM), has questioned the government's policy of building the infrastructure of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas), which is basically an import-based primary energy source. How can an imported fuel like LNG known for price volatility can be a basis for the country's energy security? True, power generation is a top priority as the finance minister in his budget speech informed of the government's plan to increase nation's power generation capacity to 40,000 MW by 2030 and 60,000 MW by 2041.

Now the question arises, what is the point of boosting the power generation capacity further when over 9,000 MW of power in excess of demand for 17,800 MW this summer is being produced currently in the country? This overcapacity has put an additional price burden on the consumers, who have already experienced power tariff hike four times in a year between January 2023 and February 20, 2024. This calls for a transparent energy governance policy. To ensure the nation's energy security on a sustainable basis, the government ought to reduce its dependence on imported fuels and, at the same time, diversify its primary energy source with an emphasis on renewable energy and exploration of domestic gas and coal reserves.

Though in a developing economy with few domestic primary energy reserves, achieving complete energy independence is a tall order, still the country cannot go on importing fuels to generate power. The government renewable energy plans include the Eighth Five Year plan, the Delta Plan 2100, the Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan 2022-41, the Power System Master Plan 2016 and Prospective Plan 2021 and finally, the Integrated Power Master Plan (IEPMP). Though these make an impressive list reflecting the government's seriousness about enhancing energy production from renewable sources, the allocation of only Tk1.0 billion for the proposed FY25 budget makes little sense. It is more so if the paltry sum of Tk119 million (less by 23.61 per cent than that of FY24), allocated for the Sustainable Renewable Energy Development Authority (SREDA) is considered. A rational approach to energy policy calls for addressing the mismatch between the government's ambitious plans and the budgetary allocations for the purpose.​
 

Bangladesh's power crisis deepens as Adani stops supply
Emran Hossain 29 June, 2024, 21:01

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| AFP file photo.

Bangladesh's power crisis further worsened as the power supply from the 1,600MW Adani power plant in Godda dropped to zero following the shutdown of both the units of the coal-fired power plant in India.

The Adani Power shut down its first unit on June 19 without any preannouncement. The public relations agency looking after Adani Power's media relations in Bangladesh had claimed that the shutdown of the first unit was due to maintenance.

After the shutdown of the second unit, Adani public relations department reiterated that it was due to a technical difficulty, without explaining its nature.

'As of now, [we] expect to restore electricity supply sometime the day after tomorrow,' said a message of the agency sent through WhatsApp.

Bangladesh Power Development Board member Khandaker Mokammel Hossain, who is in charge of power generation, said that the second shutdown was a forced one because of a malfunctioning of the boiler.

'There was a leak in a valve in the boiler,' said Mokammel, adding that the extent of the problem would be known after the boiler cools down.

A boiler usually takes two days to cool down, he said, adding that he could not ascertain when the second unit would come online.

'The first unit is expected to come online on July 5,' he added.

The complete shutdown of India's Adani power plant has occurred at a rather favourable time for the power demand is expected to remain low over the next several days because of potential heavy rains, PDB officials said.

Mokammel estimated that their current capacity to generate power at the moment was around 12,000MW, considering a host of crises Bangladesh is caught into.

Beside a staggering economic crisis severely limiting Bangladesh's energy import capacity, the import capacity of liquified natural gas was halved after the cyclonic storm Remal hit, rendering one of the floating and storage units out of order.

The affected floating and storage unit is currently in Singapore for maintenance and is weeks away from being repaired.

With 27,515MW of installed power generation capacity, Bangladesh's maximum generation on Saturday was 13,016MW at 1:00am.

The maximum power demand stood at 1:00am at 14,000MW.

The peak load shedding of 940MW was recorded at 2:00am on Saturday when the power demand was 13850MW.

Bangladesh's maximum temperature of 35C was recorded in Ishurdi on Saturday while the day air temperature in Dhaka dropped to 31C, one of the lowest in recent days.

The current crisis is unique given that almost all baseload power plants are running at half or one-third of their capacity for varying reasons, with no hope of the situation improving anytime soon.

Bangladesh owes over $3 billion to power producers at home and abroad, according to the power ministry, including $500 million owed to Adani Power in outstanding bills.

The power supply from Tripura also remained below 100MW, often less than 80MW, due to unpaid electricity bills, according to Indian media reports.

An analysis of the daily power generation report released by the Power Grid Company of Bangladesh showed that about 25 per cent of Bangladesh's installed generation capacity could smoothly operate.

The installed coal capacity, on the other hand, is 5,108MW. The maximum electricity generated from coal was mostly about 3,000MW, though it dropped to about 1500MW occasionally.

The installed furnace-oil-based capacity is 6,035MW. The generation, however, remains about 3000MW.​
 

Who benefits from the power sector's white elephants?
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VISUAL: STAR

Load shedding or power cuts are escalating across the country. Rural areas are facing more frequent outages than urban centres. Industrial areas are also suffering due to shortage of power supply.

The daily electricity requirement in Bangladesh ranges from 13,000 megawatts (MW) to a maximum of 17,000MW. Generally, the country produces between 13,000MW-15,000MW based on the need. Presently, the total power generation capacity of the country, as per government report, is 27,515MW.

Interestingly, on April 29, the country suffered a power shortage of over 3,000MW when the demand reached 17,000MW. Throughout the last week of April, escalating temperatures led to a gradual increase in demand for electricity. The supply could have been adjusted to meet this demand. But we saw a continuous rise in load shedding due to supply shortage between April 23 to April 29.

To address the electricity and gas crisis, the "Quick Enhancement of Electricity and Energy Supply (Special Provisions) Act, 2010" was enacted for an initial period of two years. The tenure was subsequently extended in 2012 by two years, in 2014 by four years, in 2018 by three years, and most recently in 2021 by five years. With four extensions, the validity of the law has been extended up to 2026.

This legislation effectively shields almost all aspects of the energy sector from legal scrutiny. The law allows purchase of rental power plants, importation of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), and construction or procurement of all sorts of infrastructure in connection with the operation and distribution of gas-electricity without following the usual procedures. Government officials involved in any sort of activities in connection with enhancement of electricity—purchase, production, transmission, distribution, and electricity related fuel transactions—have been allowed legal impunity under the provisions of this law.

The aim and objective of this law was to ensure uninterrupted electricity supply nationwide at reasonable prices. But what the impunity law has done is empower the authorities with limitless laterality.

Despite the existence of power plants capable of producing at least 10,000MW more than the existing maximum demand, load shedding is being imposed if there is a slight rise in demand from what is normal. This additional production capacity is either not being utilised or is for some reason not usable.

Research shows that a significant portion of such privately-owned plants has never produced electricity or has produced minimal amounts, such as one or two percent of their capacity, in some cases.

During 2018-22, some plants did not produce any electricity, but the government bore all their operational expenses.

Until the fiscal year 2021-22, the country had 151 power plants. Among these, 42 government-owned and 26 private power plants operated at 10 percent or less of their production capacity over the past five fiscal years. Despite this low production, they have charged the government capacity fees based on their full capacity production.

Presently, Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) is incurring huge financial losses as it is selling electricity at a much lower cost than the cost of production.

To cover the deficit, a provision for subsidy is kept in the national budget. An amount of Tk 39,406 crore was earmarked from the public exchequer for the fiscal year 2023-24 on that account.

However, it has been observed that during this period, an estimated Tk 32,000 crore was paid as capacity charges for unused power stations. This amount constitutes approximately 81 percent of the total subsidy.

In other words, a major portion (81 percent) of the amount provided as subsidy to mitigate BPDB's losses goes to pay capacity charges or rentals of private power plants. This indicates that almost the entire amount of BPDB's losses stem from payments made to privately rented power plants against capacity charges.

From 2009 to the fiscal year 2023-24, Tk 1,37,000 crore has been paid for capacity charges or rentals without utilising the production capacity.

Two large gas-powered power plants have recently begun production in Meghnaghat. These plants, operated by Summit and Unique Group, have a combined capacity of 1,167MW. Additionally, a 718MW power plant by Reliance in the same area is ready for production.

With the inclusion of these plants, BPDB's total production capacity will significantly increase. Due to the lack of demand, these plants or some other plants in lieu of them will remain unused, leading to additional capacity charge payments. Consequently, the total expense for capacity charges will rise further.

In short, power generation capacity is being increased despite insufficient demand. As a result, many of these plants remain idle without producing electricity. Since there is no production, there is no opportunity to earn revenue by selling electricity produced by these plants. However, according to the contracts, large amounts of money still need to be paid on account of capacity charges.

Although the burden of subsidies is now being shifted onto the customers through accrued electricity prices, most of the additional revenue is being used to pay rent to these privately-owned power plants.

So, the capacity charge is the main reason for the increase in electricity prices. If such power plants were absent or fewer in number, electricity prices would not have to be increased, or increased so much.

Since 2010, the electricity price has been raised 13 times, rising from an average of Tk 3.73 per unit to Tk 8.70. According to the conditions set by the IMF, this trend of increase is expected to chronically continue. Consequently, it is difficult to assert that electricity is or will be supplied at a reasonable price.

It may be mentioned here that renting private power plants, having provision for payment of rent or capacity charge are not the problems. The main problem lies in creating excess production capacity in relation to demand, and then keeping them idle and paying capacity charges or rent. Any money paid to such power plants enriches the deficit unilaterally. In short, these power plants have now become white elephants.

And it is difficult to understand why a power generation capacity exceeding 27,000MW was created at a time when our electricity demand typically ranges from 13,000MW to a maximum of 17,000MW.

Moreover, it appears that this capacity expansion trend persists, incurring significant costs and escalating both domestic and foreign debt. Notably, 19.46 percent of foreign loans are allocated to the power sector. Yet, the anticipated economic growth necessary to justify the increase in electricity usage remains elusive.

Private power plants are domestically owned, but they are being paid in foreign currency. According to our banking law, no bank can lend to any company more than 25 percent of its capital. This limit is not enforced in the power sector for the private power plant owners. It is difficult to find any logic for these extraordinary facilities to be provided to them.

Despite giving various types of benefits across the board in the power sector, uninterrupted electricity supply is not being ensured. Far from getting electricity at a fair price, white elephant-like power plants have been created and the ever-increasing high cost of maintaining them has been thrust upon the shoulders of the people.

Ghulam Muhammed Quader is an MP and leader of the opposition, Bangladesh Parliament.​
 

Bangladesh on the renewable energy race track
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Photo: Amran Hossain

When deciding where to source clothing from, an increasingly important factor will be energy use as fashion brands and retailers look to reduce carbon emissions in supply chains.

A country's energy mix may even one day override all other issues given the climate crisis we face. Here I look at progress made by five garment exporting countries—China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Turkey—in their transitions to renewable energy sources.

China

China, the world's largest energy consumer, has made significant strides in renewable energy development. The country's energy mix is still dominated by coal, accounting for more than 50 percent of its energy consumption in 2021.

However, China is the global leader in renewable energy capacity, with extensive investments in solar, wind, and hydropower. As of 2023, China has over 500 GW of solar and wind capacity combined, with ambitious plans to reach 1,200 GW by 2030.

Hydropower also plays a significant role, contributing about 20 percent to the national grid. The nation has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Government policies, substantial subsidies, and advances in technology have propelled China's rapid growth in renewables.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh's energy mix is heavily reliant on natural gas, which accounted for about 62 percent of its total energy consumption in FY 2021-2022. Bangladesh has made remarkable progress in solar home systems, with over five million installations serving rural households. Despite this, renewables contribute only around three percent to the national grid as of 2023.

This has to improve if we are to remain internationally competitive. Our customers will demand that it does. To this end, the government has set a target to generate 10 percent of its electricity from renewables by 2030, but achieving this goal requires significant investments and policy support. The energy mix also includes imported oil and coal.

Vietnam

Vietnam, the third largest exporter of clothing after China and Bangladesh, has a diverse energy mix, with coal being the predominant source, accounting for more than 40 percent of the total energy consumption in 2023. Hydropower is also significant as well as natural gas and oil.

Vietnam has seen a dramatic increase in its renewable energy capacity, particularly in solar and wind power, thanks to favourable government policies, including feed-in tariffs and tax incentives. The wind energy sector is also growing, with projects like the 99.2 MW Bac Lieu wind farm. Vietnam aims to have 30 percent of its electricity generated from renewables by 2030.

Pakistan

Pakistan's current energy mix is dominated by fossil fuels, with natural gas, oil, and coal making up the majority as of 2023. The renewable energy sector is still in its early stages, but the country has significant potential, particularly in wind and solar power.

As of 2023, renewable energy accounts for about six percent of Pakistan's total energy mix, with plans to increase this share to 30 percent by 2030. Key projects include the Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park and various wind farms in the Sindh province.

Government initiatives and international support have been crucial in advancing these projects. However, Pakistan faces challenges such as bureaucratic hurdles, financial constraints, and a need for more robust policy frameworks to attract private investment.

Turkey

Turkey's energy mix is quite diverse, with natural gas (27 percent), coal (25 percent), and oil (29 percent) being the primary sources of energy in 2022. Renewables including wind, solar power and hydro also makes significant contributions.

The country has implemented various incentives, including feed-in tariffs and purchase guarantees, to encourage investment in renewable energy.

However, the transition is challenged by economic instability and fluctuating policy environments, which can impact investor confidence.

Overall, the renewable energy transition in China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Turkey highlights diverse paths and challenges. China's leadership in capacity and investment sets a global benchmark, while Vietnam's rapid adoption showcases the potential of favourable policies and incentives.

Pakistan's journey emphasises the need for policy and financial frameworks, and Turkey's balanced approach reflects a strategy of building energy security through renewables.

But what about Bangladesh? We must improve the supply of renewable energy available to our industrial base. Our government, regional authorities, garment manufacturers and international fashion brands must collaborate on this issue to better understand the current state of our energy mix, decide how it can be shifted heavily in favour of renewable energy and then work out what this will cost—and, most importantly, how it will be funded.

Bangladesh has a chance to lead on this issue, but China, Pakistan, Turkey, Vietnam and other garment producing countries will also be looking to boost their own renewable energy use.

The race is on.

Mostafiz Uddin is the managing director of Denim Expert Limited. He is also the founder and CEO of Bangladesh Denim Expo and Bangladesh Apparel Exchange (BAE).​
 

Persistent rain boosts power production at Kaptai power plant

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Photo: Star

The Kaptai Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) is generating more power due to rising water levels following persistent rain over the last several days.

ATM Abduzzaher, managing director of the KHPP, said four out of five units generated a total of 164 megawatts of electricity from last night up until 11:00am today.

Units 1 and 2 generated 42 megawatts each. Units 4 and 5 each generated 40 megawatts, he added.

Currently, unit 3 is not in operation, he said.

This is the highest production of the power plant this year, he said.

He also mentioned the possibility of further increasing power production if the water level continues to rise.

It is noteworthy that KHPP, the country's only hydroelectric power plant, has a total power generation capacity of 230-240 megawatts from its five units.​
 

Sinopec to explore gas in Sylhet at Tk 444cr
Staff Correspondent 04 July, 2024, 00:32

The government on Wednesday appointed the Sinopec International Petroleum Service Corporation of China to drill an exploratory well and a development of a well in Sylhet.

Presided over by finance minister Abul Hassan Mahmud Ali, the decision was taken by a cabinet committee on the government purchase at the secretariat under the Quick Enhancement of Electricity and Energy Supply (Special Provision) Act, 2010 (with the latest amendment of 2021).

The Chinese company has been appointed at Tk 444.85 crore for developing Well 11 in Sylhet and exploratory work in Rashidpur Well 13 under the state-owned Sylhet Gas Field Limited.

An energy expert, however, said the deal amount looked high.

Badrul Imam said that the local company could execute such work almost half of the amount.

The gas exploration at high cost eventually increases the production cost transferred to consumers, he said.

Referring to country's large neighbour, Badrul Imam said that India always engaged local experts to gas and oil exploration to grow their capacity.

The trend in Bangladesh is opposite as the government often engages foreign companies, mainly from the US, Russia and China, in local gas exploration, he lamented.

He noted that local agents of the foreign companies mainly benefitted from such deals by getting commission.

Cabinet Division secretary (coordination) Mahmudul Hossain Khan at a briefing said that the Chinese company would implement the deal as the turnkey basis.

The Chinese company will sign a deal with the Sylhet Gas Field Limited soon.

Mahmudul Hossain said that the committee also approved a proposal from Petrobangla to import one cargo of liquefied natural gas from spot market.

M/s Excelerate Energy LP of the US will supply the LNG with per unit costing $13.558, higher from the last one cargo LNG purchased at $12.9697 per unit.

By the latest proposal, the government completed importing process of 21st LNG cargo.

The cabinet committee also approved seven other proposals, including import of diammonium phosphate and muriate of potash from Saudi Arabia and Russia on state-level deal, the purchase of two packages under the Greater Dhaka Sustainable Urban Transport Project and building a multi-storied residential building for the cleaners of the Dhaka North City Corporation at Gabtali.​
 

Bangladesh eyes electricity generation from hydrogen by 2035: PM tells parliament
BSS
Published :
Jul 03, 2024 21:13
Updated :
Jul 03, 2024 22:00
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Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on Wednesday told the parliament that the government is mulling electricity production from hydrogen and ammonia alongside the production of solar and wind power in the country.

"It is expected that it would be possible to use hydrogen energy on a pilot basis in the country by 2035," she said replying to a question from Awami League lawmaker Habibur Rahman (Sylhet-3).

Speaker Dr Shirin Sharmin Chaudhury tabled the question-answer session in the House.

The prime minister said a cell has been formed at the Rupantarita Prakritik Gas Company Limited (RPGCL) under Bangladesh Oil, Gas and Mineral Corporation (Petrobangla) to collect the results of ongoing research and the data of the activities undertaken in the developed world over sustainable and reliable methods of producing hydrogen as energy.

The cell will design a project proposal after receiving reliable information in this regard, she added.

Besides, the Premier hoped that the 1,200-megawatt first unit of the 2,400-megawatt Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant would go into commercial production by the end of this year.

A target was set to generate 40 per cent of electricity from clean energy (renewable) by 2041 in the country, she added.

Replying to separate questions from ruling party lawmakers, Alauddin Ahmmad Chowdhury (Feni-1) and Farida Yasmin (Woman Seat-35) regarding the Asrayan Project and beneficiaries, the Prime Minister said a total of 8,67,977 landless and homeless families have been rehabilitated under the Ashrayan project.

She said the total number of beneficiaries is more than 43.39 lakh. "So far 58 districts and 464 upazilas have been completely freed from the landless and homeless people. Five divisions -- Dhaka, Mymensingh, Sylhet, Khulna and Rajshahi -- are now completely freed from landless and homeless people. That means, there are no landless homeless people in all these districts, upazilas and divisions," she added.

In response to another query from AL lawmaker Ali Azam (Bhola-2), the Prime Minister said the government is committed to ensuring justice on the basis of equality for all, irrespective of the rich and poor, and establishing justice in the society by making visible improvements in the judiciary system.

She said the present government has been relentlessly working to establish the rule of law in the country by providing assurance of fair trial to alleviate the suffering of the people seeking justice.

A total of 1,429 judges were recruited in lower courts since 2009, she added.

Answering a question from AL lawmaker SM Ataul Haque (Satkhira-4), the prime minister said the allocation for the social safety sector has been increased by 9.12 times from Tk 138.45 billion in the 2008-09 fiscal year to Tk 1262.72 billion in the current fiscal year of 2023-24, which is 16.58 per cent of the total national budget.​
 

Energy price fluctuations and implications for Bangladesh
ABDUR ZABBAR SAKIL AND MD TUHIN AHMED
Published :
Jul 05, 2024 21:02
Updated :
Jul 05, 2024 21:02
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There is no denying that maintaining Bangladesh's macroeconomic stability and achieving its development goals requires consistent and uninterrupted energy supply. Bangladesh's energy landscape is predominantly shaped by fossil fuels, with natural gas including Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), coal, and oil accounting for over 98 per cent of the nation's electricity generation. Despite efforts to diversify the energy mix, renewable sources such as hydro, solar, and wind contribute only marginally to the overall power generation. However, the high dependency on imported fossil fuels leaves Bangladesh vulnerable to fluctuations in global energy prices, which can have far-reaching implications for the country's macroeconomic stability and developmental aspirations.

In the fiscal year (FY) 2020-21, Bangladesh consumed 45,080 kilotonnes of oil equivalent (ktoe) of energy, primarily in the residential (51 per cent), industrial (33.4 per cent), and transport (10.7 per cent) sectors. A significant portion of residential energy consumption is met by biofuel, accounting for 66.1 per cent of its total usage. The industrial sector relies heavily on natural gas and coal, with 43 per cent of its energy needs met by natural gas and 30.3 per cent by coal. Notably, the industry sector is the sole consumer of coal, predominantly used by the brick industry. In the transport sector, energy demand is entirely fulfilled by oil and natural gas, with oil making up 77.9 per cent and natural gas 22.1 per cent of its total energy use (SREDA, 2021).

To meet its overall energy demand, Bangladesh relies on both domestic production and imports. Specifically, the country depends on imports of coal, oil, and petroleum products, with over 90 per cent of the coal and oil supply and 100 per cent of the petroleum product supply being imported. However, Bangladesh can find some relief in the natural gas sector, as 78.6 per cent of natural gas is produced domestically, while only 21.4 per cent is imported. Despite the relatively low volume of natural gas imports, the amount has rapidly increased since its introduction in FY 2018-19 (SREDA, 2021).

On the other hand, fossil fuel energy prices on the international market are highly volatile. According to the IMF's primary commodity price data, the average price of crude oil surged from USD 44.20 per barrel in Q4 2020 to USD 85.20 per barrel in Q4 2022. Similarly, the average price of natural gas skyrocketed from USD 5.36 per thousand cubic feet (tcf) in Q4 2020 to USD 20.99 per tcf in Q4 2022. Average coal prices increased significantly, from USD 70.10 per metric ton in Q4 2020 to USD 310.01 in Q4 2022. LNG prices jumped from USD 8.18 per million metric British thermal units (mmbtu) in Q4 2020 to USD 28.56 per mmbtu in Q4 2022. This rapid increase in energy prices can be largely attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.

The question now is how energy price fluctuations affect the macro economy. Energy, along with labour and capital, is a critical factor of production. On the demand side, when energy prices increase, consumption of these resources tends to decrease. This reduction in consumption leads to a decline in the aggregate demand or output.The magnitude of this impact depends on the economy's ability to substitute energy with other factors such as labour or capital, including substitution among various energy sources (coal, gas, or crude oil). The short-term impact of rising energy prices is typically stronger than the long-term impact. While the economy can adjust its production process in response to factor prices, its ability to substitute input factors is limited.

An increase in energy prices has a more pronounced impact on the supply side than on the demand side. Higher energy prices compel producers to reduce energy usage in production, lowering output levels. Consequently, the productivity of other input factors decreases due to the reduced availability of energy sources. At this stage, nominal wages/interest rates may remain unchanged due to rigidity, resulting in a higher overall price level and lower real wages/interest rates. The higher overall price level prompts consumers to curtail their consumption, thereby affecting overall demand. The impact of energy prices on the supply side is greater because energy prices directly influence the production system. As a result, the economy experiences lower output and a higher overall price level.

Increase in energy prices deteriorates the balance of payment, especially for a country like Bangladesh which depends fully on oil importation. First, the direct increases in oil price increase the cost of oil importation, as a result, reduced imported raw materials cause production crunch. Second, an increase in oil prices in the international market reduces demand in developed countries that are major export destinations for Bangladesh, which results in reduced export income. So, increase in oil prices eats up national income since the rise in the cost of importing oil is greater than the rise in national income.

Bangladesh has been experiencing consistently high inflation since August 2022, with rates mostly exceeding 9 per cent. Despite efforts, the central bank has been unable to contain it. The root cause of this inflation surge can be traced back to a combination of post-COVID-19 supply shortages and the Russia-Ukraine war. The COVID-19 pandemic had a twofold impact on the global economy that significantly contributed to the inflation scenario. Firstly, during the pandemic, trade restrictions, factory closures, and the China-USA trade war caused disruptions in the global supply chain, leading to supply shortages. Secondly, as economies began recovering from COVID-19 and businesses reopened, there was a surge in global demand. To meet this increased demand, factories required more energy, which in turn drove up energy prices. Compounding this situation, the Russia-Ukraine war introduced another significant shock. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022, prices of oil, natural gas, and coal surged, peaking around June and July of that year. Given that Russia is a major exporter of oil and gas, and that 45 per cent of the EU's gas supply was sourced from Russia, the sanctions imposed by the USA and its allies on Russia led to a rapid increase in energy prices. Consequently, the production and transportation costs of goods escalated sharply, directly impacting Bangladesh's inflation.

Higher energy prices significantly impact a country's foreign currency reserves, particularly for a net energy-importing country like Bangladesh. The effect is predominantly negative. Since the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions and the reopening of businesses, Bangladesh's reserves of US dollars have been steadily decreasing. As of April 2024, Bangladesh's foreign reserves stood at 19.98 billion dollars.

In addition to policy failures by the central bank, the lack of remittance inflows through formal channels, and low foreign direct investment (FDI), the rise in energy prices contributes to the depletion of foreign reserves. Since mid-2022, Bangladesh has been meeting its energy demands by purchasing oil, coal, and natural gas at elevated prices. However, the country's productivity has remained relatively unchanged. As a result, Bangladesh is producing the same amount of export goods but at higher import costs, which deteriorates its balance of payments. In other words, Bangladesh is purchasing more dollars from the international market, increasing the supply of taka and the demand for dollars. This phenomenon also causes the taka to depreciate against the dollar. A depreciating domestic currency influences trade balances with other countries, as the dollar is the standard currency for international trade. Depleting foreign reserves and a depreciating domestic currency further exacerbate inflation by raising the cost of intermediate goods and raw materials. This, in turn, increases overall production costs, leading to higher prices for consumers and additional economic challenges for the country.

The constant threat of a volatile energy market and its impact on the domestic economy can be mitigated by diversifying the domestic energy mix towards renewable energy. While renewable energy has high installation costs, these costs are offset by the absence of ongoing fuel purchases, leaving only operational and maintenance expenses. Additionally, the high installation cost positively impacts the domestic economy by creating more jobs. Permanent employment opportunities will also arise for maintaining the facilities and providing jobs for thousands of unemployed graduates. This shift towards renewable energy can yield benefits in two significant ways. First, the country will need to import fewer fossil fuels, thereby spending fewer dollars. This will reduce the pressure on foreign reserves and potentially increase them significantly. Second, Bangladesh will no longer face uncertainty regarding its essential energy supplies, leading to a more stable domestic market with stable prices. Although these changes will not entirely eliminate inflationary pressure, they will certainly lessen a portion of it.

Abdul Zabbar Sakil is Research Analyst at International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Md. Tuhin Ahmed is Lecturer of Economics at Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University and Senior Research Associate at SANEM.​
 

Bangladesh faces massive load-shedding as India's Adani cuts power supply
Emran Hossain 25 June, 2024, 23:12

View attachment 6615

Bangladesh, which watched a humid heatwave intensify over almost half of its districts on Tuesday, suffered up to 16 hours of power cuts in places after the power supply from the coal-fired power plant run by Adani Power in India was drastically reduced without a pre-announcement.

With 27,515MW of installed power generation capacity, Bangladesh fell short of 1,887MW of electricity to meet the demand of 14,800MW at 2:00am on Tuesday, the hour the country recorded its peak load-shedding.

Just 24 hours ago, the power shortage stood at 278MW against the demand of 14,380MW.

Since the ongoing heatwave began three days ago, leading to a rise of about 4,000MW in power demand, load-shedding has undergone an astronomical rise from almost zero.

An ongoing economic crisis has seriously limited Bangladesh's energy use for more than two years now.

The current crisis is unique given that almost all baseload power plants are running at half or one-third of their capacities for one reason or another, with no hope of the situation improving anytime soon, especially after one of Bangladesh's two floating storage and regasification units remains out of order since the cyclonic storm Remal hit on May 28.

'The shutdown of a floating storage and regasification unit put us in a crisis that only worsened after Adani shut down one of its two units beyond schedule,' power secretary Habibur Rahman told New Age.

Bangladesh owes over $3 billion to power producers at home and abroad, according to the power ministry, including $500 million owed to Adani Power in outstanding bills.

The public relations agency that was looking after Adani Power's media relations in Bangladesh, however, claimed that the shutdown of one of the units at the 1,600MW Godda power plant was for maintenance and scheduled.

The explanation lacked consistency because the remaining unit still in operation has the capacity to generate at least 800MW.

On June 24, Bangladesh received only 371MW from Adani's Godda power plant.

On June 19, the day Adani shut down its second unit, as revealed by the daily electricity generation report of the Power Grid Company of Bangladesh, Bangladesh received 1,060MW.

The power supply from Tripura also remained below 100MW, often less than 80MW, due to unpaid electricity bills, according to Indian media reports.

A unit of the 1,320MW coal-based Payra power plant is also currently under maintenance.

The 1,320MW coal-fired Rampal power plant supplied 593MW in the evening peak hour on June 24, saying that it had shut down its second unit, about which there was no explanation from the power ministry.

The newly-built 1,200MW Matarbari coal-based power plant had one of its two units under maintenance, according to the PGCB.

The 586MW Unique Meghnaghat power plant remained completely shut down because of a gas shortage.

The 1,224MW newly-built coal-based SS Power plant supplied only 481MW on June 24.

The 307MW coal-based Barishal power plant generated 200MW on June 24 due to a coal shortage.

An analysis of the daily power generation report released by the PGCB showed that 114 out of 150 power plants were either partially or completely out of operation for one reason or another on June 24.

Only about 25 per cent of Bangladesh's current installed generation capacity could smoothly operate, the PGCB report revealed.

On June 24, a total of 33 power plants faced technical problems, such as engine or machine problems, while a fuel shortage affected operations at 46 gas- and furnace-oil-based power plants.

A dozen power plants were under maintenance, while 18 did not operate because their contracts expired.

On June 24, Bangladesh produced 5,655mw using gas at the peak load-shedding hour at 2:00am. The installed gas capacity is 11,880. Before the FSRU malfunctioned, Bangladesh produced a maximum 7,000MW using gas.

The installed coal capacity, on the other hand, is 5,108MW. But the maximum electricity generated from coal was mostly about 3,000MW, though it dropped to about 1500MW occasionally.

The installed furnace-oil-based capacity is 6,035MW. At the peak load-shedding hour on June 24, furnace oil generated 3,202MW.

An online provider of fuel prices, Trading Economics, showed that coal was sold at $131.91 per tonne on June 25 following an 8 per cent fall in its price this month.

The US natural gas price was around $2.8/MMBtu on June 23. The crude oil price held just below $82 per barrel on June 24.

Indian heatwaves and geopolitical unrest have kept fuel prices somewhat unsteady, but energy experts found them very affordable unless the economic situation was really bad.

The Bangladesh Meteorological Department said that a mild to moderate heatwave was sweeping over Dhaka, Rajshahi and Khulna divisions, covering 31 out of 64 districts.

Bangladesh's highest temperature of 38C was recorded in Rajshahi on Tuesday.

New Age staff correspondent in Rajshahi reported that people in rural areas in the districts have been suffering from around 16 hours of power cuts for the past three days.

Mominul Islam, a college student of Anupampur village under Charghat upazila in Rajshahi, said that he could not sleep at all on Monday night because of power cuts amid a humid heatwave.

'Seven to eight power cuts occurred on Monday night,' he said.

Mehedi Hasan, a resident of Shekherpara village under Godagari upazila in Rajshahi, told New Age that they had also been experiencing power cuts of up to 14 to 16 hours for the past few days.

'There is no need for power for irrigation. Why is there load-shedding now?' he asked.​

This is what happens when you rely on Indians to supply something crucial as electricity.

Bad decisions buying Indian goods and services, one after another - by this woman.
 

Industries reeling from persistent gas crisis
Published :
Jul 08, 2024 22:07
Updated :
Jul 08, 2024 22:07
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The country that was once thought to be floating on gas is unable to make available sufficient volume of this fossil fuel to domestic consumers of various categories. The industrial consumers are worst-hit. The textile mills that need a large volume of gas in recent days have aired their grievances on a number of occasions through their associations. The domestic consumers don't have a voice for they are not organised under the umbrella of any such entity. The last fiscal year was a disappointing one for the industrial sector, as it recorded only 6.66 per cent growth, the lowest in last four years. The rate of growth was 8.37 per cent in the preceding year. Non-availability of sufficient volume of gas was one of the main reasons for such a poor performance. The gas crisis is still hurting the industries and the situation is unlikely to change for the better anytime soon. Quite a big number of factories in the key industrial belts like Narayanganj, Savar and Gazipur are dependent on gas for their operations. The gas crisis has been pushing up their cost of production, making it more challenging for manufacturers and exporters to ensure the supply of products in time. Industry leaders have already expressed their concern and written to the relevant ministries seeking an early resumption of gas supply to run their factories at an optimal capacity.

The main reason behind the gas crunch is the flawed energy policy that the government has been pursuing over the years, demonstrating an inexcusable indifference to experts' suggestion to go for extensive domestic exploration for hydrocarbon. The government has been more interested in importing LNG since 2015 to produce power and feed domestic industries partially than putting in its best efforts for offshore exploration. The cost of LNG import, however, has increased sharply since 2022 as the global energy market became volatile amidst geo-political tensions like the Russia-Ukraine war and the Middle-East conflicts. At home, foreign exchange reserves started depleting at a fast pace for both external and domestic reasons. The local currency also depreciated sharply, making the payments for the import of LNG in US dollar expensive. The crisis of greenback coupled with dwindling value of Taka forced the government to slow down the import of LNG. The net outcome has been a cut in the supply of gas to industry and power units. The government after a prolonged foot-dragging announced new oil and gas exploration move early this year. The results of the exploration work could go either way --- positive or negative. But the country would surely need uninterrupted supply of gas to help the wheels of industrial units running. And the government will have to ensure it, by any means.

The immediate reason behind the current crisis is the damage caused to one of the two floating terminals at Maheshkhali in Cox's Bazar used for regasification of imported LNG. Cyclone Remal caused damage to a terminal on May 27, which was then sent to Singapore for repair. The Petrobangla authority is hopeful of terminal's return by the middle of this month, which it feels, will resolve the gas crunch problem. This particular development also underscores the risks and limitations of over-reliance on energy imports instead of exploring multiple options efficiently. It is expected that the authorities will revisit the energy policy and redesign it keeping in view the long-term needs of the country. The gas crisis is not only affecting the country's export market but it is also significantly pushing up the cost of living of the common consumers.​
 

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