[🇧🇩] Energy Security of Bangladesh

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[🇧🇩] Energy Security of Bangladesh
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Govt cancels land lease of Orion’s coal power project
Emran Hossain 27 May, 2025, 01:02

The lease of the land awarded by the past Awami League government to the Orion Group to build a 635MW coal-based power plant in Cox’s Bazar’s Matarbari has been cancelled.

‘Our board of directors recently cancelled the land lease given to the coal power project of the Orion Group,’ said Nazmul Haque, managing director, Coal Power Generation Company Bangladesh Limited.

The company on February 27, 2023 leased 225 acres of land to the Orion Group, one of the largest beneficiaries from controversial power deals awarded under the indemnity law adopted by the past Awami regime.

The decision to cancel the lease came amidst green activists organising protests demanding the cancellation of the Orion Group’s coal power project.

Approved on September 29, 2013, the coal power plant was initially permitted to be built in Munshiganj’s Gajaria. A power purchase agreement for 25 years was also signed between the Orion Group and the Bangladesh Power Development Board in April 2016.

The power purchase agreement required the plant to be operational in 45 months of its signing. But the Orion Group could not yet start the plant’s construction.

‘The cancellation of the land lease is reminiscent of the undue favours extended to the Orion Group by the past government desperately trying to implement the coal power project,’ said Hasan Mehedi, member secretary, Bangladesh Working Group on Ecology and Development.

Initially, the project boasted of potential loans from the USA, Poland, Korea and China, though the loans never arrived. About two years after the project’s deadline expired, the BPDB in early 2022 extended the project’s deadline until 2026, while advising it to relocate to Matarbari.

Once again the Orion Group failed to start the plant’s construction. But the BPDB, instead of cancelling the PPA, extended the project deadline again, until 2027. Then again the deadline was extended until 2030 just before the student-led mass-uprising brought the authoritarian AL regime to an end.

After failing to complete the project in its initial deadline, the Orion Group in July 2020 proposed to construct the power plant taking loan from the national reserve, but the plan did not work out.

Bangladesh Bank eventually changed its provision of financing coal power plant in November 2022, allowing the Orion Group to secure declaration from three state-owned banks, namely Janata Bank, Agrani Bank and Rupali Bank, to receive Tk 10,579 crore to build the power plant. Janata Bank promised to give it half of the loan.

The construction cost of the 635MW power plant, according to an analysis revealed earlier this month, would be 70 per cent higher than the cost generally needed for setting up coal power plants with double its capacity, such as, the 1,320MW Payra power plant.

The estimated capacity charge to be given for the power plant could stand at Tk 6.47 per unit, as the analysis estimated, requiring the payment of Tk 76,478 crore in capacity charge over the lifetime of the power plant had it been built.

The analysis also put the estimated the loss in public health and agricultural production due to the power plant at over Tk 55,000 crore.

The analysis drew attention to the poorly-informed environmental impact assessment based on which the power plant was approved.

Currently, coal accounts for 21 per cent of the country’s total installed power generation capacity of 27,424MW.

Two more major coal-based power plants worth 1,244MW and 1,247MW are set to come online by 2030.​
 

Expediting operation of oil pipeline

Published :
May 31, 2025 00:13
Updated :
May 31, 2025 00:13

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Chattogram-Dhaka oil pipeline project has been encountering delays in multiple forms. First, its launching was delayed following its approval by the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNEC) in October 2018. Thus its original completion deadline by December 2020 was missed. The deadline was extended twice first, to December 2022 and then to December 2024. Consequently, the original project cost has soared from Tk28.61 billion to Tk 36.99 billion. On project completion, the operation, that is, transportation of the petroleum fuel through the pipeline was scheduled to begin early this month.

But it has not yet started due to non-completion of some pre-commissioning work. Whatever the nature of the pre-commissioning formalities may be, it must not cause inordinate delay to transportation of the fuel oil through the 237.71- kilometre pipeline from Padma oil installations in Patenga of Chattogram to Narayanganj's Godanail tank terminal. The more the delay in actual commissioning of the operational part of the project is the more the transportation of fuel oil by private tanker lorries and coastal tankers. The nexus pilfering oil during transportation will also share the loot. It is an entire chain of vested interests from transportation points to political high-ups that was engaged in stealing the state's precious fuel oils during the autocracy. The scale of operation gives some measure of profit with 200 tankers reportedly deployed to carry 90 per cent of oil by waterways.

Now that the autocracy has gone, what is then standing on the way of making the oil pipeline functional? If it is due to the usual bureaucratic tardiness, indecision or laxity on the part of BPC's administration, or, say, appointment of an operating company to run the pipeline, the delay should not be inordinate. That would call for bringing those responsible for the sloppiness in the administration to book. The main objective of installing the pipeline was to save about Tk2.30 billion annually in transportation cost. That objective is being defeated.

More than the money in the form of transportation cost, the time saved is the most critical part of the project. Once the pipeline begins to carry 2.62 million metric tonnes of petroleum products from Chittagong port to the capital city annually without all the hassles, risks, costs and lengthy time, the productivity of the national economic engine oil fires will increase manifold. It is not just the industries in the urban areas that the piped oil promises to serve, the 2.7 million tonnes of High Speed Diesel (HSD), the crucial fuel for agriculture in the northern districts to be transported through the pipeline would also help ensure the country's food security better. Notably, from Godanail and Fatullah in Narayanganj, tankers are used to carry the oil along the waterways to the depots in the northern districts such as Baghabari in Pabna, Chilmari in Kurigram and Sachnabazar of Sunamganj in the northeast. Obviously, after commissioning, the northern agricultural districts would also benefit greatly. In sum, every hour lost to commissioning delay of the pipeline would amount to huge loss in economic terms. This is the last thing expected of the current interim government.​
 

Power and energy crisis in Bangladesh
Gas, electricity, and transportation sectors

Fahmida Khatun, Mustafizur Rahman, Khondaker Golam Moazzem, Muntaseer Kamal and Syed Yusuf Saadat
Published :
May 31, 2025 00:01
Updated :
May 31, 2025 00:01

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Bangladesh is currently facing one of the most disruptive energy crises in recent months. Extended load shedding, acute gas shortages, and high fuel price hikes have severely impacted daily life and economic activity across the country. According to the national dailies, the industrial production has slowed, transport services have been disrupted, and businesses—especially small and medium enterprises—have reported financial losses and operational downtime. This crisis has exposed systemic weaknesses in Bangladesh’s energy system, including its heavy dependence on imported fuels, ageing grid infrastructure, and inadequate investment in domestic energy production and renewables. As demand continues to rise—driven by urbanisation, industrial expansion, and agricultural mechanisation—the country’s limited and inefficient energy supply has struggled to keep up. This report analyses the current power and energy crisis in Bangladesh with a focus on natural gas, electricity, and transportation fuels such as diesel and petrol. Drawing from secondary data, in-depth interviews, and sector-specific trends, it identifies the scale of the supply-demand gap, pricing trends, and its impact across key user groups: households, industries, and the transport sector.

Energy supply-demand gap analysis: Bangladesh’s energy system relies heavily on three major energy sources: natural gas, electricity, and transportation fuels (diesel and petrol). This section analyses the trends in demand and supply for each of these energy types using national data, highlighting the scale of the deficits and their sectoral implications.

Natural gas. Natural gas remains vital to Bangladesh’s energy system, powering over half of the electricity generation and playing key roles in industry, domestic use, and fertiliser production. However, the sector is under severe strain due to falling domestic production and growing demand. Between FY2020 and FY2024, total gas production declined from 24,993 to 21,075 mmcf, while distribution remained steady. As a result, the production-distribution gap widened significantly from 3,492 to 6,479 mmcf.

There is limited effort even under the Interim Government regime to explore natural gas from the probable gas wells onshore and offshore. 34 wells were targeted to be explored in FY2025, whereas only 8 wells were being explored as of October 2024. A part of the gap is partially met by imported LNG. The share of LNG has increased from 7.3 per cent in FY2020 to 25 per cent in Fy2025 (till January). Such a rise in the import of LNG has significantly raised the expenses. Hence, the financial state of Petrobangla increasingly turned out to be negative.

The sectoral consumption patterns show power and industry as the largest gas users. While power has remained the dominant sector, industrial use has steadily increased. Domestic consumption, by contrast, has fallen from 158 BCF in FY2018 to 100 BCF in FY2024. Total national gas use peaked at 1,041 BCF in FY2019 but declined to 916 BCF in FY2024.

Also, the future demand is expected to grow sharply from 3,965 mmcfd in FY2025 to 4,762 mmcfd in FY2028, driven by the power and industrial sectors. Domestic and commercial demand is projected to decline slightly, reflecting lower allocation priorities.

In other words, unless alternate energy sources (including renewable energy) are managed for major economic activities, the gas crisis will be further acute in the coming years. Overdependence on LNG would further weaken the financial state of Petro Bangla as well as weaken the overall BoP of the country.

In the price trend analysis, it has been found that gas prices increased significantly for industries and captive power from BDT 30 to BDT 40–42 per cubic meter, while electricity generation retained the subsidised rate of BDT 14 in 2025. Rising gas prices along with lowering supply have heavily affected the gas dependent industries such as textiles, glass, ceramic and steel industries.

Together, these trends reveal a deepening gas crisis. Without new exploration, infrastructure upgrades, and pricing reform, Bangladesh’s energy security and industrial growth will remain at risk.

Electricity. Electricity demand in Bangladesh has risen steadily, driven by urbanisation, industrial growth, and agricultural electrification. Despite achieving over 95 per cent national electrification by 2021, supply has not kept pace with demand due to limited fuel availability, ageing infrastructure, and inefficiencies in generation and distribution.

From FY2011 to FY2024, installed capacity increased from 7,264 MW to 28,098 MW. However, actual demand only rose to 16,477 MW, significantly below the forecasted 17,830 MW. The gap has widened in recent years, with “energy not served” peaking at 3,818 MkWh in FY2023.

These shortfalls are especially severe during peak hours and irrigation seasons. Rural areas face daily outages, while urban users rely increasingly on diesel generators, raising energy costs. Industries adjust production schedules to cope with load shedding, and SMEs without backup power face financial strain. In agriculture, unreliable power forces a shift to diesel pumps, increasing irrigation costs and affecting food prices.

Although the generation mix has diversified, over 43 per cent still comes from gas-fired plants, which remain vulnerable to supply disruptions. Financial stress on utilities, stemming from high subsidies and low-cost recovery, further limits investment in system upgrades.

On the other hand, electricity tariffs have also risen. Between 2021 and 2024, annual average growth rates for residential users (0–50 kWh) rose by 13.6 per cent, while other categories like shops and small industries saw increases of 6.5 per cent. These hikes have impacted affordability, especially for low- and middle-income users. This rise in electricity tariff has been carried out to lessen the huge loss of the BPDB over the years owing to faulty pricing for purchasing electricity from IPPs, capacity payment, creating excess generation capacity, etc. The consumers have to take the burden of these faulty activities.

Despite capacity growth, Bangladesh’s electricity sector continues to face a growing gap between demand and reliable supply, underscoring the need for fuel diversification, pricing reform, and investment in transmission and distribution.

Petroleum fuels. Petroleum fuels such as diesel, petrol, octane, and kerosene are central to Bangladesh’s transport, agriculture, and energy backup needs. Unlike electricity or natural gas, these fuels are entirely imported, making their availability and affordability sensitive to global price volatility and exchange rate fluctuations. Since mid-2022, international market shocks combined with domestic price adjustments have significantly impacted fuel consumption patterns across sectors.

Over the last five years, fuel consumption initially increased across all four fuel types but saw a notable decline in FY2024. Diesel, the most consumed fuel, dropped by 14 per cent, from 4.94 million metric tons in FY2023 to 4.24 million metric tons in FY2024. Petrol and octane also declined by 5.2 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively, while kerosene consumption fell by nearly 10 per cent. This reversal reflects both high domestic prices and weakened purchasing power, especially among low-income and informal sector users.

These consumption drops occurred alongside persistently high fuel prices. Between June 2024 and May 2025, prices remained elevated, with diesel and kerosene fluctuating between BDT 104–108 per litre, petrol between BDT 121–127, and octane from BDT 125–131. Although these prices are marginally lower than the August 2022 peak, they remain high by historical standards, maintaining pressure on households, transport services, and farming operations (BPC, Local Selling Price of Petroleum Products, 2025). Although the BPC is supposed to follow automated pricing formula considering the global price, there is little reflection of it in retail pricing and consumers face the burden of a higher price.

The impacts of these high fuel prices have been felt across sectors. In transport, bus and freight services have reduced operations or raised fares, triggering public dissatisfaction and reduced mobility, especially in rural and peri-urban areas. Informal operators such as autorickshaws and motorbike ride-share drivers reported income losses due to low passenger demand and high fuel costs. In agriculture, diesel price increases raised irrigation costs by 20–30 per cent, particularly affecting boro season farmers reliant on shallow diesel pumps.

Industries have also suffered, especially during power outages, which forced many factories to switch to diesel-powered generators. This shift has significantly increased energy costs, particularly in energy-intensive sectors like textiles, steel, and ceramics. SMEs without captive or backup systems were hit harder, leading to production delays.
These underscore the vulnerability of Bangladesh’s petroleum fuel users to international market shocks. Without policy measures to improve fuel efficiency, stabilise prices, or protect lowincome users, such fuel price disruptions could continue to destabilise critical sectors in the future.

Inefficiencies and system loss: A core issue is inefficiency and mismanagement within the energy sector itself. Bangladesh suffers from gas system losses of 12–14 per cent, significantly higher than the international standard of 2 per cent. Each 1 per cent system loss is estimated to cost around Tk 800 billion. Despite this, institutional reforms have lagged, and there is little accountability or oversight to address wastage or corruption.

Fiscal planning has also been weak. In the current fiscal year, the Energy and Mineral Resources Division received a modest allocation of Tk 10.87 billion, of which only 10.4 per cent was spent in the first six months. While the government continues to prioritise imported LNG—having spent over Tk 1600 billion on imports from 2017 to 2023—investment in domestic gas exploration remains minimal. The state-owned BAPEX receives just Tk 10 billion annually. A recent tender for offshore oil and gas exploration failed to attract any foreign bidders, reflecting low investor confidence.

Meanwhile, energy subsidies remain substantial, approximately Tk 360 billion for electricity and Tk 200 billion for energy annually, in addition to Tk 60 billion spent on LNG imports. Yet these investments are undermined by systemic inefficiencies, poor governance, and a lack of competition in public procurement processes.
Bureaucratic inertia, political cronyism, and reliance on short-term import-based solutions are obstructing sustainable energy development.

Sectoral impacts of the energy crisis based on KIIs: The energy crisis in Bangladesh has had cascading effects across all layers of society and the economy. Beyond the macro-level gaps in supply and rising prices, the most critical disruptions are being experienced by end-users whose lives and livelihoods depend on affordable and stable access to electricity, gas, and fuel. The three most affected segments, households, industries, and the transportation sector, have undergone significant operational, behavioural, and financial adjustments to cope with the ongoing crisis. These user-level disruptions form the core of the current crisis and are expected to be further validated through the planned survey-based data collection.

Household sector. For households, the energy crisis has meant frequent and prolonged electricity outages, especially during peak hours and the summer season. In urban settings, families have experienced 1–4 hours of daily load shedding, while rural areas face even longer and less predictable outages. These interruptions have not only disrupted daily routines such as cooking, bathing, and studying but also created stress in maintaining access to digital services like mobile banking, online education, and remote work. In households with piped gas connections, low pressure has become a daily obstacle, especially during morning and evening hours. This has forced many families to shift to LPG cylinders as a substitute. However, LPG prices have surged, rising from Tk 900 to Tk 1,500 for a 12.5 kg cylinder between 2021 and 2023, causing an average monthly increase in cooking energy costs of Tk 500 to Tk 800 for many families.

The financial burden is further compounded by power outages, which have prompted middle and high-income families to invest in inverters, solar panels, or even diesel generators. However, these alternatives remain out of reach for poorer households, who are often left without any backup during outages. Consequently, low-income families have resorted to undercooking meals, using traditional fuels, or reducing energy use altogether. In addition to cooking and cooling, energy shortages have directly impacted education. Students are unable to charge devices, attend online classes, or study during evening hours due to power cuts. The energy crisis has also strained healthcare access, with refrigeration for medicines and the use of nebulisers or diagnostic equipment in homes being affected. Furthermore, inflation in transport and food prices—both driven by fuel costs has reduced household purchasing power, leading to a shift in consumption behaviour, where families are allocating more of their monthly budget to energy and less to education, nutrition, and healthcare.

Industrial sector. Loss in production and earning: Bangladesh’s industrial sector—particularly energy-intensive industries such as textiles, garments, cement, ceramics, and steel—has been severely affected by a prolonged and worsening energy crisis. These industries rely heavily on natural gas for process heating and captive power generation. However, due to declining domestic gas production and a policy preference to prioritise gas supply for power plants, industrial gas allocations have been frequently curtailed, often without sufficient notice. This has forced many factories to operate well below capacity or suspend operations altogether. Between 2021 and 2023, production in several key industrial zones dropped by an estimated 20–30 per cent during peak shortage periods. In recent months, the situation has further deteriorated, with many textile and garment factories operating at only 40–50 per cent capacity. Output in yarn, fabric, and garments has declined sharply, and nearly half of the textile factories have reportedly shut down. As a stopgap, large industries have turned to diesel generators, but with diesel prices exceeding Tk 104 per litre, the cost of self-generated power is three to four times higher than that of grid electricity.

This has significantly driven up production costs and negatively impacted their earnings. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have suffered even more. Lacking the capital to purchase backup generators or absorb price shocks, many SMEs, especially in plastics, agro-processing, and light engineering, have faced declining output, order cancellations, and missed delivery deadlines. Many have laid off contract workers or shifted to part-time operations.

Energy insecurity has also created hesitancy in new investments and delayed technology upgrades in manufacturing. In the garments and textiles sector, which accounts for over 80 per cent of Bangladesh’s exports, energy disruptions have led to shipment delays, resulting in financial penalties and reputational damage with international buyers. Even export processing zones (EPZs), once considered infrastructure reliable, have not been immune. Altogether, the unpredictability of energy supply is now considered one of the most pressing constraints to industrial productivity, expansion, and longterm competitiveness, especially when compared to regional competitors like Vietnam and India, who are offering more energy-secure environments for industrial investment.
Beyond the garments and SMEs, the broader industrial landscape has also suffered. Production in the steel industry has dropped by 25–30 per cent, while the ceramic industry has seen a decline of more than 50 per cent due to energy shortages.

Transportation sector. The transportation sector has experienced severe pressure due to fuel price volatility and shortages in compressed natural gas (CNG). Diesel, which powers most freight trucks, buses, and irrigation pumps, surged to Tk 108 per litre in 2024. This caused operating costs to increase by 15–25 per cent, leading logistics firms to reduce fleet use and pass costs to consumers through higher transport fares and commodity prices. Delays in goods delivery, particularly perishable agricultural product, have affected farm incomes and raised food prices in urban markets. Petrol prices, fluctuating between Tk 121 and 127 per litre, have likewise increased costs for private vehicle users and ride-sharing services, further reducing affordability for daily commuters CNG, once a cheaper and cleaner transport fuel, has faced erratic supply despite increased annual allocation. Long queues at CNG stations have become the norm, prompting many drivers to switch to petrol or diesel, thereby increasing their fuel costs by 25–30 per cent. Auto-rickshaw drivers and informal transport operators have reported a 30–40 per cent drop in daily earnings due to reduced trips, fuel switching, and rising costs. Public transport operators have raised fares, which disproportionately affect low-income commuters who rely on daily travel for work and education. App-based ride-hailing services have also seen driver dropout rates rise, with many citing poor fuel margins and reduced passenger demand as key reasons. These impacts have reduced transport availability, increased commuter costs, and introduced logistical inefficiencies that affect other sectors, including agriculture and retail distribution.
Policy recommendations: The energy situation in Bangladesh requires a comprehensive approach. First, it is important to diversify the energy sources. One method to overcome the domestic supply deficit is to expedite gas exploration, particularly offshore. On the other hand, promotion and scaling up of renewable energy sources, notably wind and solar, should be prioritised in order to reduce dependency on imports and fulfil at least 10 per cent of total electricity consumption by 2030.

Second, pricing adjustments should find a balance between fairness and efficiency. The establishment of an automated, transparent fuel pricing method will help with volatility management. Earlier, CPD investigated the pricing mechanism of BPC and BERC and found that the pricing could be reduced up to Tk15 per litre. MoEPMR should follow the scientific pricing mechanism in order to set the fuel and electricity prices.

Third, the infrastructure needs to be updated. Smart monitoring technology and grid upgrades are required to reduce transmission and distribution losses, which are now around 12 per cent.

To expedite the transition to clean transportation, the government should invest in EV charging infrastructure throughout the country, promoting concessional finance and public-private partnerships.

Industrial and business organisations are needed to ensure uninterrupted power and energy supply on a priority basis. In order to do this, the government should promote renewable energy as an alternative and provide fiscal incentives directly for adopting RE for using industrial sheds, rooftops, or fallow lands. Additionally, the MoEPMR must monitor this initiative and their billing amount for tracking usage records and provide incentives accordingly.
Finally, institutional reforms are needed. In order to manage fuel prices and tariffs independently, BERC needs to be strengthened. Petro Bangla, Power Division, and BPC need to collaborate to ensure integrated energy planning and rapid crisis response. Digitising energy data and making price and allocation more transparent will make policymaking more responsive.

Dr Fahmida Khatun, Executive Director, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD); Professor Mustafizur Rahman, Distinguished Fellow, CPD; Dr Khondaker Golam Moazzem, Research Director, CPD; Mr Muntaseer Kamal and Mr Syed Yusuf Saadat, Research Fellows, CPD.

[Abu Saleh Md Shamim Alam Shibly and Tamim Ahmed, Senior Research Associates; Afrin Mahbub, Preetilata Khondaker Huq, Anindita Islam, Md Mehadi Hasan Shamim, Nuzaira Zareen, Ayesha Suhaima Rab, Safrina Kamal, Khaled Al Faruque, Md. Imran Nazir, and Tanbin Alam Chowdhury, Programme Associates; and Syeda Safia Zahid, Research Intern of CPD provide research assistance.]​
 

Excessive dependence on LNG import is no solution
01 June, 2025, 00:00

AN ACUTE gas crisis has severely affected industries and households in Dhaka and elsewhere. The supply of gas plummeted on May 29 after imported liquefied natural gas unloading had been suspended because of inclement weather. The power sector on May 27 received 941.3mmcfd of gas against the demand for 2420.9mmcfd while the fertiliser sector received 119mmcfd against the demand for 329mmcfd. Recent Petrobangla data show a daily supply of around 2,692mmcfd against a demand for 4,000mmcfd. In the last quarter of 2024, the daily gas deficit was about 1.35 billion cubic feet, with industries receiving 30 per cent less gas than the demand. Four trade bodies in the apparel and ceramic sectors have recently said that operation in many factories has halved and that the situation could worsen after Eid-ul-Azha. Consumers are angered by the gas crisis because their energy bills soared, especially in the past few years, while the crisis worsened.

The current crisis is largely owed to flawed energy policy. Despite the potential of domestic gas reserves, the Awami League government prioritised liquefied natural gas import over exploration. Gas output has decreased, but the demand has grown, leading to the energy insecurity. An increased dependency on LNG import not only threatens the stability of the exchequer but also leaves Bangladesh at the mercy of other countries in a volatile geopolitical climate. In 2022, price increase on the LNG market led to a disastrous situation against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine war. Besides, LNG import has become difficult because of the dollar crisis. Only a third of the onshore area has, meanwhile, been explored for gas, making it one of the least explored nations although its success in gas discovery has been way above the world average. Energy experts fear that the situation will only worsen with increased demand for power in the high summer. While there is no quick-fix to the crisis, the government should consider scheduled, dedicated supply for different sectors and other short-term remedies.

The chronic dependence on liquefied natural gas import, coupled with depleting gas reserves, holds the economy hostage. The government should, therefore, urgently devise a solution to ensure adequate gas supply. For a long-term solution, it needs to revise the energy policy, prioritise domestic gas exploration and renewable options to stop further decline and to end people’s suffering.​
 

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